Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 9:30:10 GMT
Danny - "You have not produced any evidence whatsoever to support this." Oh yes I have (behind you..) but you're too blind or stupid to read the papers I provide you with. We've now had large scale cohort studies from; UK (several) Canada US (5, from memory) Germany (1, covering 50% of the population) Spain Australia South Africa India (2) These are just the links I've posted, Thats my point. None of them really proves much at all except a small number of people being ill. There are no grounds to extrapolate that to the wider population. Equally useless then, if they are the same as those examples. They do not prove the points you claim they do about widespread illness. You keep posting this, but just about no one on here believes you. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 9:31:24 GMT
Also - don't know if this is of interest to the Welsh and Scots brethren on here, but there are clear signals of a rise in covid from the latest Welsh wastewater monitoring results, Like there was in Milan, Turn and was it Barcelona in 2019? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 9:41:21 GMT
The executive summary begins, "The 2020s are turning out to be a very risky era for the public finances. In just three years, they have been hit by the Covid pandemic in early 2020, the energy and cost-of-living crisis from mid-2021, and the sudden interest rate rises in 2022," The costs involved with the covid epidemic where mostly due to the world adopting a policy of lockdown. Without lockdown costs would have been far less as most of trade would not have been affected. As a statistical approximation, otherwise healthy people under pension age do not die from covid There might even have been a mini boom from increased medical spending. The energy crisis was caused by world governments deciding to end fossil fuel usage, but failing to provide adequate alternative sources as the supply of FF diminished. Thus price rises became inevitable. The sudden interest rate rises began before there was any issue about inflation, were long signalled by central banks as a deliberate attempt to push the world economy back to historically more common interest levels, maybe around 5%.This has destablised world finances. It was inevitable this process would cause inflation for consumers and damage industires ability to adapt. Its curious they do not mention the negative impact of Brexit on the UK. Government constantly explains the manpower shortage caused by brexit has to be mitigated by high interest rates (ok, so maybe its a nonsensicle argument and thats why they dont). But all four of these factors are deliberate government policy. All were predictable, and even deliberate. All four of these factors could have been mitigated for the UK by the government. If they had wanted to. |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 9:44:22 GMT
colin - there's a mass of evidence on WFH that suggests it's more productive, some that argues the reverse. There is also an absolutely enormous lobbying effort from real estate corporations going on in the media and political circles to convince us that WFH is bad. I find it a quite astonishing (no, not really, we all know how poor the media is) how some of these laughably poor stories emanating from commercial property lobby groups have been uncritically regurgitated in the press. In general, workers seem more satisfied with an element at least of WFH, and seem to self report higher productivity, whereas companies tend more to claim it's less productive (although many believe they gain significantly from offering flexibility). The companies that claim reduced productivity tend to be the ones that demand a greater corporate identity, are more interested in controlling employees, demand longer working hours etc. I inherently don't personally like that general state of mind within corporations, and I suspect there is an element of small 'p' political preference here. I find it very hard to imagine individual workers would find it more productive to travel for 2 -3 hours a day into an office every working day, and I think being able to work from home is clearly potentially far more productive on a personal level, depending on your home circumstances. Saving 2.5 hours travel time for 3 days a week gives an individual an extra 45 working days per year free time, so arguing this is less productive on a personal basis is, I think, pretty hard. But I can accept that WFH needs some coordination and management, and is not completely risk free for employers. My guess is that companies that are more hierarchical in their set up and which saw WFH as a sticking plaster for the pandemic probably didn't embrace the benefits of WFH and make the necessary adjustments willingly, and are now finding it difficult, whereas those that saw the wider potential probably spend more time and effort to realign management systems to take advantage of the change and mitigate the downsides. But whatever the truth, those commercial property companies will keep relentlessly banging the drum about how everyone has to flood into busy and unhealthy open plan offices every working day or the world will end.
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 9:56:49 GMT
colin - "This is truly shocking" Is it? To, me , it's completely unsurprising. Chart 2.6 "Long-term, work-limiting health conditions and economic activity rates" shows that from 2013 - 2020, the % of the working age population with a health condition rose slowly from 14% - ~15.5%. From 2020 to 2022 it jumped to 17.5%. That's really one of the key numbers here. Covid has and is degrading our economic productivity alongside adding substantially greater costs to benefit, care and health budgets. Yes, obviously there are other factors at play, most notably the slow decline of public services since 2010, but covid appears to be the single biggest factor once you account for the direct and indirect costs. I and others been predicting this for three years now, but it is gratifying to see this ow bedding into established government thinking. All we need now is a political party with the wit to grasp the nettle of infection prevention, and we'd see a rapid improvement in our prospects.
Edit: Chart 2.8 is a gud'un too. It shows the NHS elective treatment waiting list. From 2010 - 2020 it slowly increases from 2.6m to 4.5m, and then it surges consistently to 7.5m by early 2023.
No real mystery or shock here what's causing this.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 10:35:09 GMT
R4 'the briefing room' looking into absences from school.
Persistent absence risen from 13% to 24% between before and after covid. Experts consider this a significant number, and the reversal of a trend pre covid where this number was falling. The number of disaffected people in society is growing.
They suggest one reason for increased absence is more middle class parents being at home working, so its easier to allow kids to stay home if a bit ill.
But more importantly they feel the experience of being sent home during covid has simply broken the link that going is important. Some kids, particularly non mainstream, found being at home was simply better, whether they are disabled, socially inept and bullied, extremes of intelligence, just dont fit in.
The backlog of missed teaching has simply meant kids have more variation in what they have learnt so far, making teaching a class harder because of this added variation.
for primary school daily absence increased from 3% to 6%. For secondary it rose 4.5% to 9%. Everyone is missing a bit more school, though also there are more persistently absent. Persistent absence means missing more than 10% of total.
Older kids more absent than younger. The most absent are people getting school meals (ie poor parents), or those with special needs.
Their interviewee says she had been surprised that figures have not returned to pre covid levels.
They reckon those kids attending most will have the best outcomes later. Although I would question whether thats actually causal, it might be those whose background set them on a path of poor societal attainment would therefore not bother going to school.
Lost reading skills during the pandemic seem to have been caught up. Lost maths skills have not. Expert argues this has to do with maths being a subject which much more builds on past learning, so you just cannmot move on with bits missing.
Another expert however suggests there were signs of unathorised absences rising before the pandemic. Their expert suggests some of this is kids with special needs which however schools cannot meet. More parents are deliberately keeping their kids home because they believe the school cannot teach them or otherwise provide for their safety. (as an aside, local authorities have long had a policy of encouraging such parents to formally withdraw their kids and home educate. Home education is little monitored and doesnt impact local authority education targets)
In trying to encourage parents to send kids to school, providing extra help is a lot more effective than threatened fines. Interviewee suggests there is simply a lack of resources to do this. Con government scrapped various labour initiatives for this.
Reporter described this as 'a slow burn disaster'.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 14, 2023 10:36:11 GMT
I would have liked to say this was shocking from the ONS, but unfortunately it didn't surprise me
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 10:40:27 GMT
But whatever the truth, those commercial property companies will keep relentlessly banging the drum about how everyone has to flood into busy and unhealthy open plan offices every working day or the world will end. You may recall government called for people to return to commuting because the railways were sustaining massive losses. Cutting commuting even by a modest percentage has big implications for increased subsidies for public transport. |
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Post by catfuzz on Jul 14, 2023 10:54:59 GMT
RE: WFH - again another tragic victim of a reductive arguement. It’s not as simple as ‘WFH = good / bad’ - it’s entirely situational, and how effective it is for productivity is very much founded by how a company utilises it.
My job for example as a head of a post-production outfit. When I’m in the office, I’m usually head down on edits whilst managing my team and ensuring they’re well supported with their edits. I’m also usually in face-to-face meetings throughout the day with producers and directors to assist in the development of upcoming shoots and project management.
So while I’m in the office, I do have a much quicker response time with my team RE: changes to cuts and assisting with technical help, however getting pulled aside to take part in meetings severely hampers my productivity, as I then need to make up the time lost.
WFH on the other hand allows me to avoid distractions in the office at the cost of a slower response times RE: tweaks and technical help to staff. However that is to say it’s not impossible to continue this work, but instead it requires a phone call, or a teams meeting to share screens.
The way to make WFH more productive would be to have an adequate scheduling system in place, so that all development meetings can be held across 1-2 days, while the rest can be done from wherever.
I hate this over-simplification of modern concepts - AI is another one. It’s not a great as marketers make it out, but it certainly has its uses as an assist to productivity, but it’s not replacing jobs anytime soon.
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Post by James E on Jul 14, 2023 11:08:46 GMT
You have to remember that if (when?) the country starts to discuss rejoining, the debate will swiftly become about freedom of movement and how much migration from the continent people are willing to accept. That will certainly shift those polling numbers. Given how close it was last time it is reasonable to assume that there would still be a majority for rejoin, but the debate would be acrimonious and the country badly split once more. I don't think there is much appetite at Westminster to reopen that just yet (for one thing it would consume a huge amount of government time and effort and prevent much else getting done - as was the case 2016-19). This explains Labour's position and it is my belief is that the Lib Dems will also fall short of advocating rejoining at the next election (TBC on that one). Totally agree with you on this. Labour MP's who speak at meetings I attend talk about neither the Labour Party or the voters having the bandwidth to contemplate rejoining at present; I do think things can change quite quickly though, I don't think it's necessarily a once in a generation decision. Things have changed quickly over the past 12 months. Looking at YouGov's Brexit 'hindsight' tracker, neither side was able to get to (or even near to) a 60/40 lead until mid 2022. But a year ago in July 2022 we had the first 40/60 lead for 'Wrong to Leave' and now from Sept 2022 onwards every YouGov poll on the issue shows 60%+ thinking the decision was 'Wrong'. www.whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?pollster%5B0%5D=yougov&removedThe overall picture is that the figures moved back and forth for 5 years up to Summer 2021 when the 'right' side was enjoying a boost due to the fast vaccine roll-out. From then on, it has been a one-way street. Taking the figures from around mid-summer for the past 3 years, the averages are: June/July 2021 48% Right, 52% Wrong. June/July 2022 42% Right, 58% Wrong. June/July 2023 37% Right, 63% Wrong. Another 4% movement would take us to a position where more than two-thirds consider the decision to be wrong. And I'd accept that the 'Rejoin/Stay Out' polls show a lower lead for the 'Rejoin' option (typically 58/42) but these are close to becoming a consistent 60/40 lead, and age-demographics alone would take us to 60/40 in around 3 years. And then there's the YouGov poll from May 2023 on whether voters consider Brexit a success. Just 9% of respondents said it had been a success, compared to 62% who say it's a failure. And even among Leave voters the figures show a plurality for 'Failure' (37%) over 'success' (20%). So there is room for further movement there. [EDIT - Re Leaver disilusionment. See the graph in the middle of this article from Nov 22. While the proportion believing Brexit to be the wrong decision has accelerated since mid-2021, it has really bean a very slow, steady decline. There is little impact of 'events' as seen in VI polling.] yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/11/17/one-five-who-voted-brexit-now-think-it-was-wrong-d |
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Post by mercian on Jul 14, 2023 11:28:42 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. I think the correct comparison is not to bin collection now, but to how high an issue leaving the EU was to people before we had the 2016 referendum. Europe usually featured way down peoples priorities even during EU elections. Only a very small - though vocal - minority considered Europe a relevant issue, let alone whether we should leave or remain in the EU. If there were to be a referendum to remain the question would become “live” and if would shoot up people’s priorities like it did in 2016. Welcome to another EU-phile 😁 I suppose it depends on what you mean by a very small minority. In the 2014 EU elections, UKIP got 4.3 million votes - more than any other party, and the first time anyone other than Labour or Tories had won an election for around 100 years. In 2015 GE despite everyone knowing that they had little chance of winning seats they got 3.8 million votes, slightly more than LibDem and SNP put together and came second in over 100 seats. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 14, 2023 11:32:59 GMT
Local government by-elections. Firstly two standard holds in safe seats. Not much to see here: Newham, Wall End - Labour hold Labour: 1659 (61.1%) (+12.5) Conservative : 739 (27.2%) (+12.3) Lib Dem 138 (5.1%) (New) Green: 123 (4.5%) (-4.5) Reform UK 58 (2.1%) (-0.2) (Balance of the movement was from an Independent who finished second) Rotherham Dinnington - Con hold Conservative: 1064 (42.7%) (+6.5) Labour 820 (32.9%) (+7.5) Lib Dem 262 (10.5%) (+1.5) Ind 196 (7.9%) (-11.3) RefUK 61 (2.4%) (New) Green 59 (2.4%) (-7.7) Yorkshire 28 (1.1%) (New) Interesting that the Con vote rose significantly in both seats and Green fell. Are the Just Stop Oil people alienating the public? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 14, 2023 11:46:13 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. How do you know this? You seem to accept that there is polling support to rejoin but base your position on its lack of importance as a priority in people's minds? That is only a judgement of the present position though. Things can change quite quickly if more and more people begin to start seeing a link between their disadvantaged economic circumstances in contrast with that of their European neighbours. Remember travel and communication etc is now much more prevalent and immediate than it was in the 20th century and it is much easier for people in different countries to compare their lives with those of their neighbours. Where rejoin momentum is on that list can change very quickly and don't think the pattern and speed of 20th century politics applies now, it doesn't. We are much more interconnected, whether you like it or not and just how long do you think we will delude ourselves in this country that the sunlit uplands of the brexit economic miracle is actually an illusion. Drip drip drip www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stellantis-warns-of-uk-exodus-of-ev-production-under-post-brexit-rules.htmlWell of course times are tough, but after the pandemic and with a war going on I think it's difficult to separate out any Brexit effects. This link www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/shows inflation rates across Europe in March this year but excludes UK for some reason even though e.g. Iceland is included. I seem to remember that ours was around 10% which would put us about halfway up the table. Also along with the late TOH I always felt that significant benefits wouldn't be apparent until 2030 or so. It could be later because of all the faffing about in Parliament. The point is not whether Brexit has had some marginal downside or not, but it is a reality for the foreseeable future. UKIP started around 1990 I think and it took 25 years to get to a referendum. I wish you and your comrades well in your forthcoming 25-year battle. |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 11:50:16 GMT
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 11:51:32 GMT
@catfuzz - WFH - my thoughts entirely. Time and place for everything, and it can lead to better working practices if managed properly.
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Post by Mark on Jul 14, 2023 11:56:31 GMT
Not sure who order-order dot com is, but, there is 3rd party scripting from a lot of sources on there. I'm stopping short of flagging/deleting as unsafe, but, my advice is proceed with caution. |
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Post by James E on Jul 14, 2023 12:06:26 GMT
... Also along with the late TOH I always felt that significant benefits wouldn't be apparent until 2030 or so. It could be later because of all the faffing about in Parliament. The point is not whether Brexit has had some marginal downside or not, but it is a reality for the foreseeable future. UKIP started around 1990 I think and it took 25 years to get to a referendum. I wish you and your comrades well in your forthcoming 25-year battle. Actually, the late TOH himself was quite revisionist over this. He did not claim that the benefits of Brexit would not appear until 2030 until some time after the referendum, and neither did any of those who campaigned for Leave. I did write down somewhere TOH's comments at the time when May triggered Article 50 in March 2017: the gist was that he expected difficulties for the UK when we were in the process of leaving, but that once we actually left, there would be a major boost to both GDP and investment in the UK. It struck me at the time as likely to be disproved, and it has been. The 'wait until 2030 before we can evaluate Brexit' argument wasn't seen until the talks started to founder in late 2017-2019. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 14, 2023 12:06:31 GMT
There's Now a Rapid, Accurate COVID-19 Air Detectortime.com/6294198/covid-19-air-detector/(“ And if other diseases-causing viruses come along, the biosensor can be adjusted to detect those as well. Already, the research team is working on a device that could also identify influenza and RSV.”) Should make someone some more money.... Which operations shall we cancel in the NHS to buy some? We for a start might cancel the operations we might not need any more because people didn’t get as sick (with all the nasty knock-on effects to your heart, kidneys, brain etc.) from as many infections. Then there’s the money saved from less time off work, which might boost GDP and even pay for some more operations. (Also in lessening Covid as an issue, it might boost GDP from rather fewer posts about Covid, or from less time scrolling past them) |
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Post by moby on Jul 14, 2023 12:12:44 GMT
How do you know this? You seem to accept that there is polling support to rejoin but base your position on its lack of importance as a priority in people's minds? That is only a judgement of the present position though. Things can change quite quickly if more and more people begin to start seeing a link between their disadvantaged economic circumstances in contrast with that of their European neighbours. Remember travel and communication etc is now much more prevalent and immediate than it was in the 20th century and it is much easier for people in different countries to compare their lives with those of their neighbours. Where rejoin momentum is on that list can change very quickly and don't think the pattern and speed of 20th century politics applies now, it doesn't. We are much more interconnected, whether you like it or not and just how long do you think we will delude ourselves in this country that the sunlit uplands of the brexit economic miracle is actually an illusion. Drip drip drip www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stellantis-warns-of-uk-exodus-of-ev-production-under-post-brexit-rules.htmlWell of course times are tough, but after the pandemic and with a war going on I think it's difficult to separate out any Brexit effects. This link www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/shows inflation rates across Europe in March this year but excludes UK for some reason even though e.g. Iceland is included. I seem to remember that ours was around 10% which would put us about halfway up the table. Also along with the late TOH I always felt that significant benefits wouldn't be apparent until 2030 or so. It could be later because of all the faffing about in Parliament. The point is not whether Brexit has had some marginal downside or not, but it is a reality for the foreseeable future. UKIP started around 1990 I think and it took 25 years to get to a referendum. I wish you and your comrades well in your forthcoming 25-year battle. Its not going to be 25 years imo. People with your views/attitudes are dying out and as I said for all sorts of technological reasons we are now becoming much more interdependent and connected with our neighbours. Westminster is becoming less relevant to decisions which affect us; just look how quickly Truss had to resign last summer when the international markets turned against her. We have a bigger problem than the EU or the USA with inflation and interest rates, ours was around 10% in March, looking at your table the EURO area was 7%. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 12:22:27 GMT
"shows inflation rates across Europe in March this year but excludes UK for some reason even though e.g. Iceland is included. I seem to remember that ours was around 10% "
Ok ignoring your b.s. about Covid and Ukraine which are of course equally as significant if not more significant for eastern and Baltic nations.
The UK inflation rate in March was 2% above the European union average nearly 4% higher than the eurozone.
Which makes the U.K. rate the highest of any non eastern or Baltic European countries with no exceptions.
Do you think there might just be a possibility that the only country that was stupid enough to impose trade sanctions on itself might be suffering from its own unique factors!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 14, 2023 12:23:36 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - can't get the link to the covid detector to work, but I posted something previously about this dating back to I think 2021. If you're saying we now have a marketable product that can identify covid in real time, then that's a great step forward. Increasingly we are now seeing the medical and scientific communities start to accept that covid is a massive drain on the public sector and wider economies, particularly health. That's now established fact, but what's interesting is that governments are also increasingly acknowledging this. The battle has now moved on to the next stage, with many official bodies still stuck in the mindset that infection is 'inevitable', so the current discussion is about how we find the resources to treat the mass of victims. This is the final hurdle. Infection is not inevitable, as the c 25% of American citizens who remained novids at the end of 2022 attest to. We just need to start using the tools we have and we can stop millions of people being harmed, and then release the resources to try and treat those already suffering. Once we get policy makers to accept this, we'll see rapid progress to a healthier world. Also noteworthy; the far right is indirectly using covid. From Canada, to Australia, to Germany and the UK, pressure on health systems is being variously used to privatise systems and target restrictions, in the UK to attack migrants as a way to pay the bills etc. Reducing overall healthcare demand would make it harder for the right to get what they want in healthcare. Ah, I see you beat me to it in making the point about the cost of operations to Danny! Anyways yes, I posted about the detector with your championing of the airborne infection issue in mind. The product can identify Covid in a few minutes, and it’s also very sensitive, but needs a bit more development to be fit for mass-production. (Even in prototype form it’s still cheaper than some of the commercial methods though). |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 14, 2023 12:29:18 GMT
alec Sorry the link didn’t work, key points from the article: “ a prototype device about the size of a microwave that can pick up signs of SARS-CoV-2 in about five minutes.”
“the team wanted to improve on the cumbersome process of relying on commercial air detectors that can only sample air and require additional PCR testing of the samples that can take as long as 24 hours to return results. The devices are also costly, ranging from thousands to tens of thousands of dollars per unit.”
“they have developed a device that they say performs even better than the commercial methods in lab testing, and could be scaled to cost a few cents per test.”
“The key to the new COVID-19 detector’s success is a super-fast method of circulating air into the device that mimics a cyclone.”
“In lab tests, the device was 77% to 83% accurate in detecting the COVID-19 virus, including its latest variants. (It detects SARS-CoV-2, but cannot distinguish between the different variants.) When the researchers tested different concentrations of virus on their device and two commercially available air detectors, theirs was the only one able to detect low levels of viral genetic material in the form of RNA.”
“The team also sent prototypes to two people who tested positive for COVID-19 and who volunteered to use the device in their homes. The air samplers accurately detected the virus in their respective bedrooms after five minutes of sampling.”
“Given that a room with a single infected individual can contain as few as 10 RNA copies of the SARS-CoV-2 virus per cubic meter of air, the odds of picking up something that small in a typical room is about one in a million or one in a billion. “It’s like finding a needle in a haystack,” says Chakrabarty.”
“”The beauty of this detection technique is that it is ultra sensitive,” says Chakabarty. Based on tests in the lab, he says, it can likely detect the virus emitted from even a mildly infected person in a typical room.”
“And, because the device is portable, Chakrabarty expects that it can be used anywhere people want immediate reports on whether the COVID-19 is present, including in homes.”
“ Building the detector cost his lab a few thousand dollars, but he anticipates that with mass production, the cost will come down significantly. One disease-detection company, Y2X Life Sciences, based in New York, is hoping to license the technology from the university to do just that.”
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 13:10:45 GMT
Spaffer's iPhone password copy discovered by cabinet office I bet he's delighted. youtu.be/fNCAO3ruIks |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 14, 2023 13:12:09 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. I think the correct comparison is not to bin collection now, but to how high an issue leaving the EU was to people before we had the 2016 referendum. Europe usually featured way down peoples priorities even during EU elections. Only a very small - though vocal - minority considered Europe a relevant issue, let alone whether we should leave or remain in the EU. If there were to be a referendum to remain the question would become “live” and if would shoot up people’s priorities like it did in 2016. Some valid points and hence why I put the IF in larger font. If people want to make 'Rejoin'* a "live" issue then instead of moaning about it might I suggest doing something about it - get a party to push for it (potentially forcing a larger party to back it), etc. UKIP deserve most credit IMO but the campaign to Leave.EU started when Major signed us to the EU (with no referendum). It took well over a decade but we eventually "Got Brexit Done". So IF you actually want to Rejoin EU, rather than just moan about it, then copy UKIP (in reverse) and if no major party is listening then back Gina Miller or Rejoin.EU** (or SNP for Scots, although they need to Leave.UK first) * We have now left so it would be 'Rejoin' not 'Remain'. ** They're standing in Uxbridge by-election and by-elections are great time+place to register a 'protest' vote. They haven't done well in by-elections to date but if people start voting for 'Rejoin' parties then, maybe, someone like LDEM or LAB will take notice? Or just stick to 'Carry on Moaning'? therejoineuparty.com |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 13:23:27 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - thanks. That's one of the bits of good news I've been waiting for. If we can get something affordable for GP surgeries, schools, hospital wards etc, then we're a long way down the path of being able to eliminate covid. I think I mentioned that we've also got dogs trained to identify covid +ve individuals, with the claimed ability to id cases while asymptomatic and before LFT tests can. That would be great for airports and other large venues. The other development we'll need is a better vaccine, and some of the nasal sprays are showing good promise in providing much stronger neutralising capability, along with a more durable response. I'm not counting air purification and ventilation because we already have that tech and we know it works. I can imagine that in another couple of years we'll be seeing endless articles in the press asking why we left it so long to deal with covid transmission. They'll be written by the same journalists who said last year that the problems are all to do with lockdowns and nothing to do with infection, and who are this saying ok, it's infection, but there's nothing we can do about it. We always move forward, but sometimes very slowly.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 14, 2023 13:24:05 GMT
Danny - "Should make someone some more money.... Which operations shall we cancel in the NHS to buy some?" Well we could start by cancelling the millions of operations, appointments, tests and therapeutic treatments required by people because they've had covid. These are going to cost around £20bn pa in the years ahead, as research consistently finds an increase in health care demand of c 15% as a direct result of covid infection. Well quite! Plus the problem of subsequently being more vulnerable to other infections which I know you’ve mentioned before. My partner succumbed to Covid some months back, and immediately after then fell victim to a couple more respiratory infections, followed by something that kept her off work for a few weeks. She’s never been off work like that before. Several other staff off work at the same time too. (Then other factors, like if you’ve got dormant Epstein-Barr virus, maybe get long Covid too) |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 14, 2023 13:25:05 GMT
pjw1961 - "If no one had more than two children, and given some people would have one or none, the world population would fall." Not necessarily. It depends on the age of the parents at conception and life expectancy. If you have your two children by 25 and life expectancy is 75, populations will grow, as a couple will have created 2 children by 25, 2 children + 4/2 grandchildren by the time they are 50 and 2 children, 4/2 grandchildren and 8/4 great grandchildren by the time they die at 75. So the population would have gone from 2 to 10 over the couple's lifetime, falling to 8 after they die. Maths could be a bit squiffy there cos I'm drunk, but delaying when you have children is almost as important as how many you have in terms of global populations. Best to have none, in environmental terms. Once you've expanded the human population, recycling, buying green energy or taking one less flight per year is just pissing in the wind. You've already done the damage. That's exactly what I would have thought but it clearly says on Google 2.1 children per woman from sources such as OECD. Can't find an explanation for the assumptions on this. As you say variables will be when you have children and I assume premature death is factored in but I wouldn't have expected that to be so high that it takes the 10 (or 8) in your figures back down to 2. See: "Assuming no net migration and unchanged mortality, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman ensures a broadly stable population"data.oecd.org/pop/fertility-rates.htmIn a period where your population is experienced 'changed' mortality (eg people living longer then they used to) then population size will grow and hence why OECD go on to say:
"Together with mortality and migration, fertility is an element of population growth"As for the 2.1 rather than exactly 2 then that is due to births being "slightly biased towards the male sex"en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sex_ratio# |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,613
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 13:27:37 GMT
Leading brexitanian Michael Gove in evidence to the covid enquiry states that Brexit was so bad it was good practice for responding to a pandemic! I understand banging your head repeatedly against a concrete wall is good practice for falling out of a third floor window! Ffs!! youtu.be/a8x9xT66KeQ |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,613
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 13:30:18 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2023 13:33:55 GMT
Surprise upset in the Norfolk CC LG by-election. This was a very safe Conservative ward but the Greens have won it on a large swing..
West Depwade
Green- 663
Con - 582
Lib Dem - 409
Ind - 405
Lab - 228
GRN: 29.0% (+19.7)
CON: 25.4% (-18.2)
LDM: 17.9% (+7.4)
IND: 17.7% (-6.0)
LAB: 10.0% (-2.8)
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