Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 7:11:49 GMT
It most probably means that when people answer pollsters they do not necessarily tell the truth. MPs as well as ministers are bound by 'collective responsibility'. Which means whatever they really think, anything they say publicly follows the official party line. This policy does make you wonder why Johnson was just disciplined for misleading parliament, ie lying in a speech in the chamber of the commons, when almost all MPs are required to do this all the time. |
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Post by chrisc on Jul 14, 2023 7:13:11 GMT
The maths is squiffy. You need to think in population terms not individual. So if you’re counting currently non existent grandchildren for those who have 2 kids, you need to subtract the grandchildren that do not appear from those who have 1 or zero.
(Edit. This was in reply to Alex’s post on the previous page.)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 7:15:16 GMT
steveThe relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. I wonder though what happens when the british economy keeps sliding, because of the effects of Brexit, and those people come to understand it is because of Brexit? If they do realise this, then its more likely to be pitchforks at dawn for former brexiteers. The reaction in the red wall seats is already showing Brexit regret. Polling will not show big support for rejoin until there is a party offering it. Polling did no show support for leaving until there was a party offering it. Polls are about what parties are doing, not about what they are not doing. Farage and UKIP caused brexit by creating a party which did support it. |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 7:19:48 GMT
Danny - "Should make someone some more money.... Which operations shall we cancel in the NHS to buy some?" Well we could start by cancelling the millions of operations, appointments, tests and therapeutic treatments required by people because they've had covid. These are going to cost around £20bn pa in the years ahead, as research consistently finds an increase in health care demand of c 15% as a direct result of covid infection. Stupid boy.
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Post by chrisc on Jul 14, 2023 7:20:45 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. I think the correct comparison is not to bin collection now, but to how high an issue leaving the EU was to people before we had the 2016 referendum. Europe usually featured way down peoples priorities even during EU elections. Only a very small - though vocal - minority considered Europe a relevant issue, let alone whether we should leave or remain in the EU. If there were to be a referendum to remain the question would become “live” and if would shoot up people’s priorities like it did in 2016. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 7:27:10 GMT
Catastrophic climate data from Florida. The response of the fascist republicans it's all a far left woke agenda. Much like brexitanian cultists for these people irrefutable proof is to be totally ignored cult beliefs are the only things that are the real truth. youtu.be/yQz3FBBXvzsIncidentally Mercian leaving the European union is still in the top ten priorities in the U.K. it wasn't until the Brexit liars raised the profile. |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 7:29:22 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - can't get the link to the covid detector to work, but I posted something previously about this dating back to I think 2021. If you're saying we now have a marketable product that can identify covid in real time, then that's a great step forward. Increasingly we are now seeing the medical and scientific communities start to accept that covid is a massive drain on the public sector and wider economies, particularly health. That's now established fact, but what's interesting is that governments are also increasingly acknowledging this. The battle has now moved on to the next stage, with many official bodies still stuck in the mindset that infection is 'inevitable', so the current discussion is about how we find the resources to treat the mass of victims. This is the final hurdle. Infection is not inevitable, as the c 25% of American citizens who remained novids at the end of 2022 attest to. We just need to start using the tools we have and we can stop millions of people being harmed, and then release the resources to try and treat those already suffering. Once we get policy makers to accept this, we'll see rapid progress to a healthier world. Also noteworthy; the far right is indirectly using covid. From Canada, to Australia, to Germany and the UK, pressure on health systems is being variously used to privatise systems and target restrictions, in the UK to attack migrants as a way to pay the bills etc. Reducing overall healthcare demand would make it harder for the right to get what they want in healthcare.
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Post by wb61 on Jul 14, 2023 7:32:06 GMT
Anyone who is in London in the next few weeks and wants a really good night out, can I recommend the new version of Dario Fo's Accidental Death of an Anarchist currently at the Theatre Royal Haymarket. I went on Wednesday, it was superb, breathtaking pace and the lead must be worn out by the end of the performance. The most enjoyable thing is that the dialogue has been updated to take account of recent UK political events and (for the numbers geeks on here) real statistics.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 14, 2023 7:47:57 GMT
Catastrophic climate data from Florida. The response of the fascist republicans it's all a far left woke agenda. Much like brexitanian cultists for these people irrefutable proof is to be totally ignored cult beliefs are the only things that are the real truth. youtu.be/yQz3FBBXvzsIncidentally Mercian leaving the European union is still in the top ten priorities in the U.K. it wasn't until the Brexit liars raised the profile. It's why the film 'Don't look up' was such as great satire (and very unsettling). For too many of these people reality is a left wing/woke/remainer conspiracy  |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 7:50:33 GMT
pjw1961 - I think we're both right. The replacement rate takes account of the numbers within the population that don't have children, the average parental age at birth, child mortality etc etc. I was focusing only on a narrow technical point.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2023 7:57:17 GMT
Local government by-elections. Firstly two standard holds in safe seats. Not much to see here:
Newham, Wall End - Labour hold
Labour: 1659 (61.1%) (+12.5)
Conservative : 739 (27.2%) (+12.3)
Lib Dem 138 (5.1%) (New)
Green: 123 (4.5%) (-4.5)
Reform UK 58 (2.1%) (-0.2)
(Balance of the movement was from an Independent who finished second)
Rotherham Dinnington - Con hold
Conservative: 1064 (42.7%) (+6.5)
Labour 820 (32.9%) (+7.5)
Lib Dem 262 (10.5%) (+1.5)
Ind 196 (7.9%) (-11.3)
RefUK 61 (2.4%) (New)
Green 59 (2.4%) (-7.7)
Yorkshire 28 (1.1%) (New)
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Post by shevii on Jul 14, 2023 7:57:38 GMT
pjw1961 - "If no one had more than two children, and given some people would have one or none, the world population would fall." Not necessarily. It depends on the age of the parents at conception and life expectancy. If you have your two children by 25 and life expectancy is 75, populations will grow, as a couple will have created 2 children by 25, 2 children + 4/2 grandchildren by the time they are 50 and 2 children, 4/2 grandchildren and 8/4 great grandchildren by the time they die at 75. So the population would have gone from 2 to 10 over the couple's lifetime, falling to 8 after they die. Maths could be a bit squiffy there cos I'm drunk, but delaying when you have children is almost as important as how many you have in terms of global populations. Best to have none, in environmental terms. Once you've expanded the human population, recycling, buying green energy or taking one less flight per year is just pissing in the wind. You've already done the damage. That's exactly what I would have thought but it clearly says on Google 2.1 children per woman from sources such as OECD. Can't find an explanation for the assumptions on this. As you say variables will be when you have children and I assume premature death is factored in but I wouldn't have expected that to be so high that it takes the 10 (or 8) in your figures back down to 2. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 8:04:40 GMT
.These are going to cost around £20bn pa in the years ahead, as research consistently finds an increase in health care demand of c 15% as a direct result of covid infection. You have not produced any evidence whatsoever to support this. just about everyone in the Uk has had covid by now, many several times and that total goes up daily.
I'll make you an updated copy of that plot when I get round to it, but for now just remind you how much covid there still is. I really dont see data on the NHS shows a 15% increase in non covid demand coinciding with the covid epidemic. It would be interesting to get the stats for Hastings, and see if there was any rise after winter 19/20, after we had covid early. By the spring the hospital had empty wards reserved for the covid patients which never came. But if there might have been a surge in other illness instead, it didnt happen either.
Everything we are seeing is consistent with funding for the NHS falling below the rate of increase of high health need people in the UK. We have an aging population, and the old are the ones using NHS services.
This is of course a deliberate choice by government to allow waiting lists to rise and people to die a bit faster. Con did this quite deliberately on taking power, whereas lab had been increasing spending faster than demand rise. Con prefer people to die faster than lab.
Although having said that, NHS emergency treatment gets priority. So its quite possible younger people with non emergency issues make up lots of that waiting list, while pensioner tory voters get priority. Maybe the NHS' problem is that not enough people are dying on the waiting list.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2023 8:05:29 GMT
This is the one that will get a few people here excited - the left wing rebellion against the hated Starmer is on! The word on the street was that the Green Party were pushing hard for this Labour seat, but it has instead fallen to an Independent - see below.
Boleyn (Newham) Council By-Election Result:
IND: 1153 42.5% (New)
LAB: 871 32.1% (-27.0)
GRN: 572 21.1% (+3.5)
CON: 69 2.5% (-15.6)
RFM: 23 0.8% (New)
LDM: 22 0.8% (New)
Independent GAIN from Labour.
Per a contribution on the elections proboard:
"The successful Independent former Mayoral candidate Mehmood Mirza is a larger than life character in more ways than one. A former Labour Party activist, he now stands on an unambiguously socialist platform. He tends not to mention his history as a significant private landlord (through his company) in Newham. The anti-Labour vote has coalesced around Mirza, and with the Conservatives putting up a North London resident as their candidate, it’s very likely that many Conservatives voted for the avowedly left-wing socialist as a means to oppose Labour most effectively."
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Post by moby on Jul 14, 2023 8:05:29 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. How do you know this? You seem to accept that there is polling support to rejoin but base your position on its lack of importance as a priority in people's minds? That is only a judgement of the present position though. Things can change quite quickly if more and more people begin to start seeing a link between their disadvantaged economic circumstances in contrast with that of their European neighbours. Remember travel and communication etc is now much more prevalent and immediate than it was in the 20th century and it is much easier for people in different countries to compare their lives with those of their neighbours. Where rejoin momentum is on that list can change very quickly and don't think the pattern and speed of 20th century politics applies now, it doesn't. We are much more interconnected, whether you like it or not and just how long do you think we will delude ourselves in this country that the sunlit uplands of the brexit economic miracle is actually an illusion. Drip drip drip www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stellantis-warns-of-uk-exodus-of-ev-production-under-post-brexit-rules.html |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2023 8:14:50 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 8:16:57 GMT
.Increasingly we are now seeing the medical and scientific communities start to accept that covid is a massive drain on the public sector and wider economies, particularly health. That's now established fact, but what's interesting is that governments are also increasingly acknowledging this. All the evidence around the world is that authorities are now completely ignoring covid. I dont understand how you get your conclusion from that? How did they prove they had never been exposed to covid, and/or were not already immune to it, so that once exposed they simply never had symptoms? Or did they simply say, like me, they had never had any disease like covid except back in 2019. So that could not possibly have been covid even though it was exactly like covid. And if they didnt do an antibody test then they wouldnt have seen they already had covid antibodies. I dont know if the US had any covid that early. But its reasonable to assume people from wuhan travel to the US just as they do to the UK, and they brought covid there just as they did all over the world. The evidence shows Hastings had covid winter 19/20, thats why it never had it in the spring, because it had already come and gone and we didnt notice anything more than a wave of people with flu type illness and some pneumonia deaths. Its likely of course covid is more virulent now, and thats why there are resurgences of the disease despite built up immunity and indeed the vaccine campaign. So the effects at the start could have been more minor than later. Though it was still the worst such disease I ever had. Disease severity is not an absolute, its the outcome of illness virulence compared to existing resistance. . |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2023 8:20:40 GMT
steve The relevance is that Gina Miller is irrelevant. There might be polling support for rejoin, but it won't happen for years if ever and it's very low on most people's priority list (apart from the League of EU Loyalists on this forum). As I think someone else said, bin collections are an important issue for most people. Rejoining the EU is much lower down the list. How do you know this? You seem to accept that there is polling support to rejoin but base your position on its lack of importance as a priority in people's minds? That is only a judgement of the present position though. Things can change quite quickly if more and more people begin to start seeing a link between their disadvantaged economic circumstances in contrast with that of their European neighbours. Remember travel and communication etc is now much more prevalent and immediate than it was in the 20th century and it is much easier for people in different countries to compare their lives with those of their neighbours. Where rejoin momentum is on that list can change very quickly and don't think the pattern and speed of 20th century politics applies now, it doesn't. We are much more interconnected, whether you like it or not and just how long do you think we will delude ourselves in this country that the sunlit uplands of the brexit economic miracle is actually an illusion. Drip drip drip www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stellantis-warns-of-uk-exodus-of-ev-production-under-post-brexit-rules.htmlYou have to remember that if (when?) the country starts to discuss rejoining, the debate will swiftly become about freedom of movement and how much migration from the continent people are willing to accept. That will certainly shift those polling numbers. Given how close it was last time it is reasonable to assume that there would still be a majority for rejoin, but the debate would be acrimonious and the country badly split once more. I don't think there is much appetite at Westminster to reopen that just yet (for one thing it would consume a huge amount of government time and effort and prevent much else getting done - as was the case 2016-19). This explains Labour's position and it is my belief is that the Lib Dems will also fall short of advocating rejoining at the next election (TBC on that one). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2023 8:24:44 GMT
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Post by johntel on Jul 14, 2023 8:38:23 GMT
Anyone who is in London in the next few weeks and wants a really good night out, can I recommend the new version of Dario Fo's Accidental Death of an Anarchist currently at the Theatre Royal Haymarket. I went on Wednesday, it was superb, breathtaking pace and the lead must be worn out by the end of the performance. The most enjoyable thing is that the dialogue has been updated to take account of recent UK political events and (for the numbers geeks on here) real statistics. Thanks for the tip-off @wb, I've booked for a week on Saturday. There are plenty of tickets and prices very reasonable for the West End. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 14, 2023 8:56:00 GMT
wb61Well I was planning on going to see " we will rock you" but you've convinced me! What are the songs like?
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 8:58:28 GMT
Danny - "You have not produced any evidence whatsoever to support this." Oh yes I have (behind you..) but you're too blind or stupid to read the papers I provide you with. We've now had large scale cohort studies from; UK (several) Canada US (5, from memory) Germany (1, covering 50% of the population) Spain Australia South Africa India (2) These are just the links I've posted, there will be many more. They are all based on slightly different methodologies, some looking specifically at 'long covid', but most extracting data from health service and/or insurance records. They all find that there is a substantial aggregate increase in health system demand following a positive PCR test over a period of a least a year, some also found that repeat infections lead to further increases to healthcare demand. The evidence is overwhelming. It's a done deal. Covid makes people sicker and less healthy, this is observed post vaccination as well as pre, and this effect persists way beyond the acute phase. You just need to grow up a little and appreciate that the world of science has left your daft theories behind. The question now is how we address that elevated demand. We can pour money into our health and support services to cope with the rising tide of illness and disability. That gives us some tough choices about what we cut or tax to fund this. I'm arguing that we should, as a priority, try to stem the flow of sickness at source, by going back to the old 'prevention is better than cure' mantra. We have proven methods that are known to reduce airborne infections, we know that repeat infections (from any pathogen) shortens life and reduces life quality, and we know that a healthier population is a happier and more productive population. So I think it's time to bury the right wing inevitability argument and start re-engineering the environment and looking after people.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 14, 2023 8:58:51 GMT
The experience of the company I work for is that doesn't hold up. People work far longer hours with far fewer distractions when working from home and our productivity soared during the pandemic. People need to take less time out to pick up kids from school etc. I was in the office on Wednesday. Spent ages chatting to people, being asked questions in person than if I'd been at home just getting on with it and had to leave earlier than I'd normally wrap up for a longish train journey home. |
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Post by alec on Jul 14, 2023 9:06:25 GMT
Also - don't know if this is of interest to the Welsh and Scots brethren on here, but there are clear signals of a rise in covid from the latest Welsh wastewater monitoring results, particularly in the Swansea area, and also some indications of a potentially rapid rise in the same metric from Scotland, although this could be an artifact of sampling as the totals are bouncing around a bit.
England doesn't do wastewater monitoring, because we have a government that works hard to identify the most practical and cost effective measures and then dismiss them.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 14, 2023 9:09:06 GMT
Who says tory MPs are out of touch
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Post by wb61 on Jul 14, 2023 9:09:56 GMT
wb61 Well I was planning on going to see " we will rock you" but you've convinced me! What are the songs like? Only one song Bella Ciao, so a good one for all of us anti-fascists  |
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Post by jimjam on Jul 14, 2023 9:12:28 GMT
Just out, seems to me that some of the ephemeral drop in Tory support from a week or 2 ago has been reversed but not all.
''Techne UK
NEW POLL: Labour lead by 20:
Lab 46% (-1)
Con 26% (nc)
LibDem 11% (+1)
Reform 6% (nc)
Green 5% (nc)
SNP 3% (nc)
1,628 questioned on 12-13 July.
+/- 5-6 July.
Data - technetracker.co.uk pic.twitter.com/KMd1OYol3m
14/07/2023, 08:00''
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Post by moby on Jul 14, 2023 9:12:59 GMT
How do you know this? You seem to accept that there is polling support to rejoin but base your position on its lack of importance as a priority in people's minds? That is only a judgement of the present position though. Things can change quite quickly if more and more people begin to start seeing a link between their disadvantaged economic circumstances in contrast with that of their European neighbours. Remember travel and communication etc is now much more prevalent and immediate than it was in the 20th century and it is much easier for people in different countries to compare their lives with those of their neighbours. Where rejoin momentum is on that list can change very quickly and don't think the pattern and speed of 20th century politics applies now, it doesn't. We are much more interconnected, whether you like it or not and just how long do you think we will delude ourselves in this country that the sunlit uplands of the brexit economic miracle is actually an illusion. Drip drip drip www.cnbc.com/2023/05/17/stellantis-warns-of-uk-exodus-of-ev-production-under-post-brexit-rules.htmlYou have to remember that if (when?) the country starts to discuss rejoining, the debate will swiftly become about freedom of movement and how much migration from the continent people are willing to accept. That will certainly shift those polling numbers. Given how close it was last time it is reasonable to assume that there would still be a majority for rejoin, but the debate would be acrimonious and the country badly split once more. I don't think there is much appetite at Westminster to reopen that just yet (for one thing it would consume a huge amount of government time and effort and prevent much else getting done - as was the case 2016-19). This explains Labour's position and it is my belief is that the Lib Dems will also fall short of advocating rejoining at the next election (TBC on that one). Totally agree with you on this. Labour MP's who speak at meetings I attend talk about neither the Labour Party or the voters having the bandwidth to contemplate rejoining at present; I do think things can change quite quickly though, I don't think it's necessarily a once in a generation decision. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,566
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 14, 2023 9:19:58 GMT
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,315
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Post by Danny on Jul 14, 2023 9:26:05 GMT
t the debate would be acrimonious and the country badly split once more. I don't think there is much appetite at Westminster to reopen that just yet Indeed. It simply shows politicians really dont care about the national good. |
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