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Post by athena on Jul 12, 2023 11:24:54 GMT
I'm presuming that the poster you are replying to "has controlled his own reproduction" just as he suggests others must do too in time. I'm presuming also there will be a Reproduction Control and Monitoring Unit who will decide numbers and the finer detail. Paragons of progeny control like this poster will no doubt be a key developer of overall reproduction policy. Who it applies to, the enforcement regime, penalties for exceeding limits etc I have say that I'm always a little suspicious of people who advocate reproduction control for other people. I'm honestly not sure how to respond to your post, since last time I took you seriously I got ticked off. Another poster raised the topic of large-scale migration, which is one of the problems that the climate crisis will exacerbate. I tried to contribute to the debate. Your caricature suggests you didn't bother to read my original post, so there doesn't seem much point in saying any more. |
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 11:25:57 GMT
www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-tsunami-of-disability-is-coming-as-a-result-of-lsquo-long-covid-rsquo/"Even as U.S. policy makers and business leaders seek to put the COVID pandemic in the rearview mirror with the help of highly effective vaccines, a fundamental policy and planning gap is looming. Many who survive the initial viral illness suffer debilitating long-term sequelae. Unlike the common cold or even influenza, this virus causes a bewildering array of symptoms that persist long after the acute illness is resolved and can render some affected unable to resume their usual activities. As scientists and clinicians continue to delineate the “long-haul” course of COVID, policy makers and planners must anticipate and prepare for the impact of this new cause of disability, including its implications for federal and private worker’s compensation and disability insurance programs and support services." Huge questions here for the future of insurance and health care. In the insurance based systems, we're already seeing costs rise and some conditions lead to refusal of cover. In state funded systems we're seeing demand rise and increased costs and delays. This will continue and exacerbate, for as long as we permit covid to transmit and mutate without hindrance.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 11:33:38 GMT
The Poundland deputy prime minister in response to Ed Davey's perfectly reasonable enquiry about when the members of the public can get an nhs dental appointment appears to have been 2036! The circus and its clowns need to leave town. Attachment Deleted |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 11:34:32 GMT
I think you should provide evidence for such an outlandish claim.  It was just something I imagined PJ. Like wot I sed. Could you imagine up a parliament with a sensible competent government and a charismatic principled leader of the opposition please. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 11:39:31 GMT
Richard Tice (RUK) is quite right to call it a "shambolic farce" and mock CON HMG for their failure to get Rwanda scheme started* but does Kinnock realise that aping RUK is probably not that smart a move given LAB are almost certainly going to have an OM after GE'24? I agree with this, but, for different resons to those that Trevor puts forward. I am increasingly uneasy with the way that the Labour leasership are going on the issue of refugees / the Rwanda scheme et al. The underlying tone from Labour (and evidenced from Kinnock here) isn't that the scheme (and the tories reterick and actions re-asylum seekers n general) isn't that it is illegal under international law, isn't that it is inhumane, isn't that t is simply wrong, i t is simply that Labour in government will simply be more efficient at it.The fact is that almost 80% of those that come here via unorthadox routes that have actually been procesed - by this government are granted asylum. You could say many things about this government (and I, for one, do so on a regular basis), but, being a soft touch regarding asylm seekers isn't one of them. The fact is that not only do e take far less refugees than many other comparable Europen countries, but, also that far fewer come here to claim asylum than comparative EU countries in the first place. The huge backlog in asylem claims is driven by tory austerity and tory cuts. Put in place measures to reverse that - and then some - and you tackle the backlog. This in turn reduces the number that are in limbo in hotels. If you want to tackle the criminal gangs that put lives at risk, then re-open safe and legal routes. You could even have a weekly ferry from Calais or processig sites in Calais for those that want to come to the UK. Language is also important. The tories repeatedly referrig to 'illegals' is delibarate, used as a dog whistle to a cetain demographic and also sows division and mistrust. Labour should be, just as regularly referring to asylum seekers or even refugees in the same context. Not true on Rwanda, Labour have said multiple times they would not keep the Rwanda scheme and there is no sign of a u-turn on that one. For one thing they know it is not a real practical policy anyway, just 'red-meat' for the Tory base. |
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patrickbrian
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Post by patrickbrian on Jul 12, 2023 11:41:50 GMT
Athena
China had a one-child policy for decades, so there is no shortage of precedent or information about the consequences. Clearly, population control by edict can be done. But since the birthrate in most European countries is falling anyway, what would be the point?
I believe that China is now trying to get the population to grow again and finding it difficult to persuade citizens to have more children, but don't know much about this. Do you? I might look it up....
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 11:59:06 GMT
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 12:04:10 GMT
A good point. The UK wouldnt need any of the millions of immigrants government is encouraging if it had more births here. But this raises the question that most western government are fixated on the idea that (slowly) rising population sizes are essential. As you say this can only be prevented by increasing immigration, which seems to be a policy many voters deeply oppose. The ridiculous situation where conservatives supported brexit to enable a reduction in the rate of immigration, when they actually are encouraging immigration! I have just been looking at some data on birth rates and far from being concerned about overcrowding in the U.K. and Europe we could be looking at a significant drop in population. Some numbers. The current live birth rate of child per woman n the U.K. is 1.6. For every 100 people (50% male and female) that gives 80 live births. Second generation will have 64 live births Third generation will have 38 live births. That is a drop of 72% in about 100 years. in China the figure is 1.2 live births for each woman, after three generations that would reduce the 100 people to only 22. Hong Kong is at 0.8 live births per woman, giving a three generation population drop of 95%. That opens up the question of how we look after the old and infirm with an ever decreasing population. The drop in birth rates has been hidden by the increase in life expectancy, but this seems to have stalled, so children born today are likely to experience a falling population. It is only in poorer countries where birth rates are resulting in increasing populations, but there live births per woman are falling quickly in these countries as well and the forecasters seem to indicate that by 2050 the world wide birth rate will fall below that needed to replace the population, so by the end of this century we will see a fall in the total population of the world. Interesting times and interesting decisions to be made. Educated women have the largest effect on a country's fertility rate. 'Sorry love, you've got to wear one of these thingies tonight.' |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 12:43:39 GMT
Athena China had a one-child policy for decades, so there is no shortage of precedent or information about the consequences. Clearly, population control by edict can be done. But since the birthrate in most European countries is falling anyway, what would be the point? I believe that China is now trying to get the population to grow again and finding it difficult to persuade citizens to have more children, but don't know much about this. Do you? I might look it up.... I don't know about grow but I think they're just trying to get near replacement level. These state sponsored exhortations to have more kids never work though. It's a deeper trend. |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 12:47:40 GMT
It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) There are some pretty big error bars on all population projections, and what usually gets quoted is the median. What is uncontroversial though is that in almost all developed countries the birth rate is well below replacement rate (which is about 2.1 children per woman) and by the end of this century about half of the world's population will be living in one continent - Africa. While I think on, here's the late Hans Rosling debunking myths:
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 12:47:56 GMT
Just on reproduction, having children is not a problem but having more than two is. If no one had more than two children, and given some people would have one or none, the world population would fall. To achieve this needs women to have equality, education and control over their own bodies through access to contraception and abortion. The evidence is clear that where this applies women choose to have fewer children (no draconian state intervention needed). The 'new right' are of course fighting hard against all of that. One of the best ways to encourage people to have kids younger and therefore be more likely to have more kids would be free, good quality pre-school places and childminding groups but funnily enough the right aren't keen on that idea.. |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 12:53:55 GMT
Danny - perhaps it might be better if we all wait for the facts to emerge before pontificating on such private matters? Although I'm aware you tend not to let facts interrupt your decision making processes. If you're waiting for facts to emerge you'll be waiting a long time, for the simple reason that there aren't any.
Every newsroom in the country will know who the annonymous BBC presenter is, and yet after four days of running this "story" not one of them ( and most notably not the Sun ) has dared to publish his name. Why do you imagine that is ?
The only story here is one of unaccountable abuse of power by sections of the media that feel free to destroy peoples lives by promulgating lies and innuendo, knowing there will be no comebacks for themselves.
Who's benefiting from this? Is there another story that just can't get air time? Or is it just the Sun trying to boost it's circulation figures?
The one thing that is certain, is the story itself is unimportant.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:00:16 GMT
I was surprised that one item of news went almost completely unremarked yesterday. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Of course, one data point doesn't make a trend, but given rising interest rates and all the other economic woes, who would bet against a steady rise in unemployment between now and the next GE? Had a look for some stats, and the most commonly cited are from the early 1970s, when unemployment rate was about 4%, same as now. Before the Thatcherite medicine of high interest worked, if it did actually work, unemployment went up to 12% in 1984. Inflation peaked at 25% in 1974, having run at around 4% though the 60s. It took off during approximately the 1970s, falling from about 1980. It was back to around the 5% level for 83-88. It then started climbing again For comparison inflation was around 4% in the 60s, unemployment was about 2%. Unemployment was maybe a bit lower 1.5% in the 50s, 10% in 20s and 30s. Fell to 1% through the war years and then a blip to about 2.5% in the post war 40s. So, if you believe Thatcherite policy worked then their surging interest rates from about 10% to peak 17% choked off the renewed rising inflation when they took office, but really this was part of a rising trend in interest rates before con took office. The obvious correlation though in inflation spikes is the hikes in world oil prices in 1973 and 1979, and surprise surprise now once again in 2022. One might be forgiven for thinking interest rates had bugger all to do with controlling inflation, it just happened all by itself as world trade adjusted. However, if it is being used now, then on precedent we might expect interest to go way higher than it is currently, and also unemployment. This is a pretty insane concept. the idea is to destroy the economy to persuade people to accept lower wages. Whereas the real solution was probably for industry to adjust supply and demand for energy. If industry needs to invest to adjust its processes for expensive energy, then making its capital costs shoot up doesnt on the face of it seem like a good idea. Sounds like it would in fact really make the surge of inflation to peak even worse.
I dont really see evidence in these figures that rising interest was not a consequence of rising inflation, an automatic adjustment to track the inflation rate, rather than deliberately pushed to head off inflation. It might be argued what industry needed was stimulus to reorganise, which is what happened rather successfully in 2008.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:09:14 GMT
Surely thats an insane policy? In a world with shrinking total labour force, you cannot have a policy of cheap labour. That means it will be undervalued and alternatives to human labour simply will not be developed. We had all that argument in the runup to brexit, that a labour shortage would benefit us. What you need is a policy of expensive labour to force industry to invest in alternatives. Including care of the elderly through technology.
Whats needed is a smaller share of profits retained in companies or by investors. Instead more going to workers, and into mechanisation. Thats pretty much the opposite of Uk policy. And look! from the time we switched to a con government with this policy, everything has gone from bad to worse.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 13:12:15 GMT
leftieliberal “Mad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read.“ I think it is all too easy to think that people who we find irritating and who say things that are patently untrue are” mad”, stupid” or some other epithet. In her own way I imagine Nadine Dorries is quite clever.
I think you should provide evidence for such an outlandish claim. Well she's not actually resigned yet. I thought that was pretty clever. 'Hmm, if I resign I'll lose that easy income, and the blond bastard (or one of those other toff boys) has refused to give me, a poor, working class girl,[1] an alternative income stream. Nope! Keep the cheques coming chaps!'
[1] I'm from Liverpool, don't you know?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:27:36 GMT
What the figures don't appear to suggest is that the prime driver of the sickness rate is NHS delays. These are relevant, but if these were the dominant factor, without any recent improvements in NHS metrics, there is no reason to expect a fall in sick numbers; they ought to keep on rising if it's an NHS issue. If it's an infection based driver, then yes, we would expect numbers to rise after high infections, and reduce when we're in a covid trough. It is likely there is a rather long delay between failures in NHS treatment and someone ending up long term sick. Its entirely possible raised long term sickness now goes all the way back to NHS cuts from 2010 onwards. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:29:08 GMT
I'm a quality over quantity person on this. I'd much rather the future was one in which the human population was 4 or 5 billion and everyone had a reasonable quality of life. I'd also much rather we got to that figure by imposing restrictions on reproduction than through wars over resources, diseases, heat-related mortality or shooting people at borders. Except that on the whole the population trend seems downwards, and government are fighting to INCREASE it! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:33:01 GMT
Hmm. Define 'many'? a million around the world? A negligible number in any one nation? It seems most nations believe it to be negligible, chief medical officers and all. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 13:47:05 GMT
"Ben Wallace said Ukrainians’ haste to get all the help they could meant they did not always say they were grateful for the help received. “Whether we like it or not, people want to see a bit of gratitude,”
Yes indeed the Ukrainians should be thanking the West for being allowed to die on our behalf.
What a twat.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 13:48:20 GMT
Danny - perhaps it might be better if we all wait for the facts to emerge before pontificating on such private matters? Although I'm aware you tend not to let facts interrupt your decision making processes. I think institutional gay bashing needs to be called out. Its not as if the same thing didn't just happen to schofield. There is a general trend to try to use examples to cause changes in laws. There is a backlash against gay rights, and the rights of the young in general to make choices for themselves, including sexual relationships. This seems an absolute case in point where parents believe they know better what is right for their child (er adult child even under our rules). What is really happening is young people feel disenfranchised by society, but they are also fighting back by doing what they want anyway. Brexit was a case in point, where the old overruled the will of the young.
Arent the people pontificating on private matters here the Sun in particular and the media in general?
The BBC has also been attacked for poor investigation of complaints. In fact the matter seems to have been quickly passed to the relevant people, who very soon emailed the complainants, presumably for further details. They got no answer. after three weeks they rang. No answer. I honestly cant say waiting three weeks for a response is excessive in a situation which supposedly dates back years. The BBC explained they would not approach people accused in such a complaint until they had confirmed the situation. Which they were unable to do. From their perspective, they had no way to tell if this wasn't a complete hoax. So far its looking more hoax than not. It looks very clear the parents and offspring are in total disagreement.
I wonder why the Sun didn't pull the story when the person at the heart of it said it was rubbish. They felt they knew best? They had already invested considerable money in it? They would get a good story and worst comes to worst, they could say the parents misled them?
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Post by somerjohn on Jul 12, 2023 13:54:25 GMT
Colin: "Given that our Central Bank-along with the Fed are trying to engineer recession and an end to hot labour markets , I think you're on to a winner.'
Sarcasm noted.
I was indeed stating what should be obvious.
But there is a difference between what should be obvious and what people notice. It takes media focus to make something politically salient.
The point of my post was that the turning point in unemployment (if that's what it turns out to be, as you and I expect) currently has negligible media coverage and thus low political salience. But at some point in the next 12 months that will, I think, change as the increase in unemployment becomes hard to ignore. Just in time for the election.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 13:59:13 GMT
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 14:11:01 GMT
Danny - "It is likely there is a rather long delay between failures in NHS treatment and someone ending up long term sick. Its entirely possible raised long term sickness now goes all the way back to NHS cuts from 2010 onwards." That's true, but wouldn't explain a fall in sickness levels. "Hmm. Define 'many'? a million around the world? A negligible number in any one nation? It seems most nations believe it to be negligible, chief medical officers and all." On the contrary, CMOs all over the world are flagging this as a very substantial number, and the WHO believes it's around 400m globally, so yup, it's vast. It's likely to swamp healthcare services if left unchecked, which is exactly what we are starting to see.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 12, 2023 14:42:44 GMT
Well, Europe could welcome the Jews back from over-crowded Israel. Well the fertity rate is only increasing in the Jewish population. I believe it is part of a concerted effort to ensure the Jews don't die out. And they seem to want many more of those nodding, smelly ones.[1] [1] Have you ever had to sit next to one on a flight? I don't know if you thought this was funny, but I don't. People have been suspended from the Labour Party for far less. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 15:15:04 GMT
I have just been looking at some data on birth rates and far from being concerned about overcrowding in the U.K. and Europe we could be looking at a significant drop in population. Some numbers. The current live birth rate of child per woman n the U.K. is 1.6. For every 100 people (50% male and female) that gives 80 live births. Second generation will have 64 live births Third generation will have 38 live births. That is a drop of 72% in about 100 years. in China the figure is 1.2 live births for each woman, after three generations that would reduce the 100 people to only 22. Hong Kong is at 0.8 live births per woman, giving a three generation population drop of 95%. That opens up the question of how we look after the old and infirm with an ever decreasing population. The drop in birth rates has been hidden by the increase in life expectancy, but this seems to have stalled, so children born today are likely to experience a falling population. It is only in poorer countries where birth rates are resulting in increasing populations, but there live births per woman are falling quickly in these countries as well and the forecasters seem to indicate that by 2050 the world wide birth rate will fall below that needed to replace the population, so by the end of this century we will see a fall in the total population of the world. Interesting times and interesting decisions to be made. Educated women have the largest effect on a country's fertility rate. 'Sorry love, you've got to wear one of these thingies tonight.' In our case, that "thingy" requested by my wife will be my 1982 Villa European Cup winners shirt. This seems to have mysterious contraceptive powers in that she won't come anywhere near me when I've got it on. Mind you, I did say that I'd never wash it again from the moment I staggered out of the Feyenoord Stadium in Rotterdam over 40 years ago. I've been good to my word too. The 1977 League Cup Winners shirt, however, seems to have the opposite effect and is now tattered and torn. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 15:28:42 GMT
Well, Europe could welcome the Jews back from over-crowded Israel. Well the fertity rate is only increasing in the Jewish population. I believe it is part of a concerted effort to ensure the Jews don't die out. And they seem to want many more of those nodding, smelly ones.[1] [1] Have you ever had to sit next to one on a flight? Am I missing something here or is all this seriously out of order and dehumanising? From people I'd least expect it from |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 15:31:35 GMT
Well the fertity rate is only increasing in the Jewish population. I believe it is part of a concerted effort to ensure the Jews don't die out. And they seem to want many more of those nodding, smelly ones.[1] [1] Have you ever had to sit next to one on a flight? Am I missing something here or is all this seriously out of order and dehumanising? From people I'd least expect it from Tend to agree and out of character with the poster. A bad joke, badly told maybe? I hope so. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 15:33:16 GMT
Colin: "Given that our Central Bank-along with the Fed are trying to engineer recession and an end to hot labour markets , I think you're on to a winner.'Sarcasm noted. I was indeed stating what should be obvious. But there is a difference between what should be obvious and what people notice. It takes media focus to make something politically salient. The point of my post was that the turning point in unemployment (if that's what it turns out to be, as you and I expect) currently has negligible media coverage and thus low political salience. But at some point in the next 12 months that will, I think, change as the increase in unemployment becomes hard to ignore. Just in time for the election. looking up stats to compare previous periods of inflation to now, I came across a comment about the 70s, where they said unemployment had become decoupled from rises in interest rates and other fiscal measures. I just passed it incidentally then, but the issue now is whether inflation rises are more a medicine or a poison. If it was already being questioned back in the 70s, or at least retrospectively about the 70s, doesnt sound good for now. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 15:50:54 GMT
"Ben Wallace said Ukrainians’ haste to get all the help they could meant they did not always say they were grateful for the help received. “Whether we like it or not, people want to see a bit of gratitude,” Yes indeed the Ukrainians should be thanking the West for being allowed to die on our behalf. What a twat. It appears from what he has since said that Rishi Sunak agrees with your assessment of Wallace. And yet Wallace is supposed to be the 'safe pair of hands' in the cabinet. What a shambles they are. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 16:00:12 GMT
crossbat11 “ In our case, that "thingy" requested by my wife will be my 1982 Villa European Cup winners shirt. This seems to have mysterious contraceptive powers in that she won't come anywhere near me when I've got it on. Mind you, I did say that I'd never wash it again from the moment I staggered out of the Feyenoord Stadium in Rotterdam over 40 years ago. I've been good to my word too. The 1977 League Cup Winners shirt, however, seems to have the opposite effect and is now tattered and torn.” I hadn’t realised that the Villa had won stuff as recently as that. Blimey!
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