graham
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Post by graham on Jul 12, 2023 16:26:49 GMT
Re- Dorries. Were Sunak minded to hold the election on May 2nd next year, a Dissolution would occur in mid- March. If Dorries delays her resignation until mid-October, the Tories might be able to justify not moving a writ for the by election at all.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 16:27:11 GMT
I was surprised that one item of news went almost completely unremarked yesterday. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Of course, one data point doesn't make a trend, but given rising interest rates and all the other economic woe, who would bet against a steady rise in unemployment between now and the next GE? Carfrew was kind enough the other day to credit me with flagging up the emerging rise in gas prices well before their significance was widely appreciated. So as my latest canary-in-a-coalmine tribute act, I give you advance warning of 2024-25 unemployment angst. Given that our Central Bank-along with the Fed are trying to engineer recession and an end to hot labour markets , I think you're on to a winner. www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/09/does-america-need-more-unemploymentand from the ONS link: 2. Main points
The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.0% in March to May 2023, 0.2 percentage points higher than December 2022 to February 2023...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/july2023and unemployment and employment both went up because:
"The economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points on the quarter, to 20.8% in March to May 2023."
of course there are some people that only want to focus on bad news but it was a pretty mixed bag. Unclear how BoE will consider the 'mixed bag' in the deliberations but since they don't seem to think part of the reason people are demanding higher wages is due to higher mortgage costs (and the 'pass thru' to rent) then they'll probably be most concerned about the high rise in wages:
"...growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 7.3% in March to May 2023. For regular pay, this equals the highest growth rate.."
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 16:31:45 GMT
Am I missing something here or is all this seriously out of order and dehumanising? From people I'd least expect it from Tend to agree and out of character with the poster. A bad joke, badly told maybe? I hope so. I just thought it was better to ignore his comment.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 16:35:46 GMT
Re- Dorries. Were Sunak minded to hold the election on May 2nd next year, a Dissolution would occur in mid- March. If Dorries delays her resignation until mid-October, the Tories might be able to justify not moving a writ for the by election at all. Why not just not resign at all, but tell the Party she would not stand again. That way she could collect another year's salary and expenses while doing nothing. I think MPs get a bonus of several months salary for either standing down or being defeated at a GE.
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 16:36:50 GMT
Just seen a note about sea surface temperatures around Florida showing much of it is 32-33C. That's hot tub levels - in the seas.
As a species, our ability to ignore f@cking great alarm bells and carry on as if everything is fine is astonishing.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 16:45:56 GMT
Well the fertity rate is only increasing in the Jewish population. I believe it is part of a concerted effort to ensure the Jews don't die out. And they seem to want many more of those nodding, smelly ones.[1] [1] Have you ever had to sit next to one on a flight? Am I missing something here or is all this seriously out of order and dehumanising? From people I'd least expect it from No your not missing manifest anti semitism.!
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 16:48:31 GMT
Richard Tice (RUK) is quite right to call it a "shambolic farce" and mock CON HMG for their failure to get Rwanda scheme started* but does Kinnock realise that aping RUK is probably not that smart a move given LAB are almost certainly going to have an OM after GE'24? I agree with this, but, for different resons to those that Trevor puts forward. I am increasingly uneasy with the way that the Labour leasership are going on the issue of refugees / the Rwanda scheme et al. The underlying tone from Labour (and evidenced from Kinnock here) isn't that the scheme (and the tories reterick and actions re-asylum seekers n general) isn't that it is illegal under international law, isn't that it is inhumane, isn't that t is simply wrong, it is simply that Labour in government will simply be more efficient at it.
The fact is that almost 80% of those that come here via unorthadox routes that have actually been procesed - by this government are granted asylum. You could say many things about this government (and I, for one, do so on a regular basis), but, being a soft touch regarding asylm seekers isn't one of them. The fact is that not only do e take far less refugees than many other comparable Europen countries, but, also that far fewer come here to claim asylum than comparative EU countries in the first place. The huge backlog in asylem claims is driven by tory austerity and tory cuts. Put in place measures to reverse that - and then some - and you tackle the backlog. This in turn reduces the number that are in limbo in hotels. If you want to tackle the criminal gangs that put lives at risk, then re-open safe and legal routes. You could even have a weekly ferry from Calais or processig sites in Calais for those that want to come to the UK.Language is also important. The tories repeatedly referrig to 'illegals' is delibarate, used as a dog whistle to a cetain demographic and also sows division and mistrust. Labour should be, just as regularly referring to asylum seekers or even refugees in the same context. Most of your points refer to the current system which both CON and LAB are seeking to change (eg the reason that so high a % of those using "unorthodox" routes are eventually granted asylum is due to issues such as Theresa May's 'Modern Day Slavery' Act (2015)' being misused by 'do bad' lawyers) - hence the need to change UK law. As to your points I placed in bold then I'd agree there is not much difference between Cooper's "plan" and Braverman's "plan". The only notable difference being: LAB (Cooper) - thinks that asking France for a Returns policy (again) will somehow get a different result to the last time we asked. Hence what is the "plan" when France says "non"? CON (Braverman) - wants to try something that hasn't been done before largely as a deterrent to hopefully reduce the number of people who think they can pay £2k+ to a criminal gang with 80%ish chance of then getting to live in UK. I'll also simplify RUK's "plan" which is assuming CON will continue to 'dither+delay' and not have the desire to fight ECHR if (probably when) it comes to that. So they want to pre-empt the ECtHR decision and leave ECHR immediately. Insanity is trying the same thing over and over again and hoping for a different result (although some LAB arch-partisans might believe Starmer will get a different answer to Rishi). I'd personally rather give CON's plan a go and see if it works - although Braverman put the cart before the horse and is making a mess of it. If Rwanda doesn't act a deterrent then I most certainly hope we don't take the Greek* approach and effectively approve of boats sinking with mass loss of life. I have no wish to misrepresent you but the "let everyone in" option is not popular and I don't think France and rEU will be too pleased with UK if we operate a taxi service at the far-end of the criminal gang's route. With massive population growth in Africa, wars to Europe's East and climate change then please at least acknowledge that the issue of "unorthodox" immigration (irregular as they call it in EU) is almost certain to get worse. How many people do you think UK should take in and why do you give priority to those who can afford to pay a criminal gang to get them to Calais over those in refugee camps? Once we've got a grip on the criminal gangs and "unorthodox" route then I hope we can give refuge to more genuine refugees via legal routes and whilst it's only a "pinkie promise" then CON have promised to open more legal routes. * For those who think the Rwanda scheme is the most evil thing since 1930s Germany then we are a long way from the most evil ways to 'Stop the Boats' and I certainly hope we never get to..
Greek shipwreck: hi-tech investigation suggests coastguard responsible for sinkingwww.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/jul/10/greek-shipwreck-hi-tech-investigation-suggests-coastguard-responsible-for-sinkingAs usual then I suggest folks see what is happening in the countries closer to the entry points into Europe before they get outraged about what UK is trying to do. IMO 'deterrents' is the best form of prevention and I'd always favour prevention to 'cure'. I appreciate some might disagree or perhaps not think there is even a problem to begin with.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 16:53:54 GMT
crossbat11 “ In our case, that "thingy" requested by my wife will be my 1982 Villa European Cup winners shirt. This seems to have mysterious contraceptive powers in that she won't come anywhere near me when I've got it on. Mind you, I did say that I'd never wash it again from the moment I staggered out of the Feyenoord Stadium in Rotterdam over 40 years ago. I've been good to my word too. The 1977 League Cup Winners shirt, however, seems to have the opposite effect and is now tattered and torn.” I hadn’t realised that the Villa had won stuff as recently as that. Blimey! In my lifetime too. You will know by now than I'm much older than I look. My youthful appearance and stubborn good looks are, as my doctor pithily commented recently, bordering on a biological wonder.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 12, 2023 17:08:45 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 17:09:39 GMT
I'm presuming that the poster you are replying to "has controlled his own reproduction" just as he suggests others must do too in time. I'm presuming also there will be a Reproduction Control and Monitoring Unit who will decide numbers and the finer detail. Paragons of progeny control like this poster will no doubt be a key developer of overall reproduction policy. Who it applies to, the enforcement regime, penalties for exceeding limits etc I have say that I'm always a little suspicious of people who advocate reproduction control for other people. I'm honestly not sure how to respond to your post, since last time I took you seriously I got ticked off. Another poster raised the topic of large-scale migration, which is one of the problems that the climate crisis will exacerbate. I tried to contribute to the debate. Your caricature suggests you didn't bother to read my original post, so there doesn't seem much point in saying any more. You raised some interesting points but IMO Africa has huge potential and shouldn't simply be written off as a soon-to-be uninhabitable waste land. EG see: "How Africa can help feed the world’s 9 billion people in 2050.. Some 60 percent of Earth’s uncultivated land is located in Africa"www.devex.com/news/how-africa-can-help-feed-the-world-s-9-billion-people-in-2050-83897If they have enough excess potential to help feed rWorld then they have enough to feed their own people. IMG piece: "The right actions today will ensure that sub-Saharan Africa thrives in a post-COVID world"Most of Africa isn't going to submerge under rising Sea levels (that is a problem for other regions) and with investment then desalination and irrigation can get water to where it is needed. They will have a 'young' population without the costs of an 'ageing' population that the 'rich' nations are facing. China has less land and bigger problems with food security etc. No one is writing China off (or at least not that I'm aware of). However, with Africa's population likely to double in the next few decades (from 1 to 2 billion) then slowing down their population growth would be helpful - ideally via 'education' about birth control, etc (and I don't mean that in a patronising way). IMO China's "one child" policy took it a bit too far but there are certainly ways to discourage high birth rates. So, yes, climate change will see increased migration but Africa can support billions of people and whilst I don't think we can afford massive foreign aid then we can help Africa via trade and developing tech to improve crop yields, produce food+energy in more environmentally friendly ways, etc. Their birth rates is something that UN/IMF can perhaps 'influence'?
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 17:11:20 GMT
I've deleted my origiginal post, and a couple of my replies.
I was offended by his insistance of wearing heavy clothing on a hot, full flight, and he smelled really bad. Not nice when you have to sit next to someone for a couple of hours. It is just one of those experiences that sits in your memory, as it was probably nearly a decade ago.
I've clearly crossed a line here with some people and so I offer my sincere apologies -- I wasn't trying to be antisemitic.
Sorry folks.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 17:13:29 GMT
Am I missing something here or is all this seriously out of order and dehumanising? From people I'd least expect it from No your not missing manifest anti semitism.! I didn't think I was. Maybe I am. :-(
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 17:20:36 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. And the police, after investigating the case, have said that there is no evidence that they can see that any illegality is involved. They are taking it no further. His wife's statement has said that when Edwards leaves hospital, he intends to answer the various allegations that have been made about his behaviour. He hasn't resigned from the BBC apparently, but is currently being treated, as an inpatient in hospital, for a mental breakdown. It will be interesting to see how his account, and those of others involved, compares to what the Sun has alleged over the last few days. The Sun may soon be on the defensive over all this, I suspect.
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Post by lens on Jul 12, 2023 17:23:54 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. And saying he is "suffering from severe mental health issues". Which brings another raft of questions. The allegations that brought all this to a head go back several years. And I'm prepared to believe so do the mental health issues. So how on earth was someone with such problems allowed to remain in his position, with such a stressful job, for so long!? Hard to believe nobody at work was unaware for so long? We're not just talking about a minor figure - arguably the public face of BBC News. More and more questions for the BBC to answer.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 17:25:30 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. The 'scandal' seeming to consist of legal and consensual activity between adults as far as we know to date - certainly the police see no evidence of criminality. But Edwards now receiving health treatment for severe depression. I have a feeling Danny may be right on this one - there is a definite whiff of homophobia about this, coupled with Murdoch's endless campaign to undermine the BBC for commercial reasons.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 12, 2023 17:25:37 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. And the police, after investigating the case, have said that there is no evidence that they can see that any illegality is involved. They are taking it no further. I was actually given his name last night by someone who advised it was being widely referred to on Twitter.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 17:26:50 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. And saying he is "suffering from severe mental health issues". Which brings another raft of questions. The allegations that brought all this to a head go back several years. And I'm prepared to believe so do the mental health issues. So how on earth was someone with such problems allowed to remain in his position, with such a stressful job, for so long!? Hard to believe nobody at work was unaware for so long? We're not just talking about a minor figure - arguably the public face of BBC News. More and more questions for the BBC to answer. More and more questions for the Sun to answer to my mind.
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 12, 2023 17:29:01 GMT
alurqaI think what people found offensive was that you appeared to generalise the characteristics of this individual to other Jews. It is this that is at the heart of antisemitism and indeed all racism. I don’t think you are an “anti-Semite”, but I am certain you have dipped your toe into a reservoir of deeply antisemitic ideas. I am sure this was unwitting on your part, but I feel hugely grateful to Mandolinist (and others) for pointing this out. And to you for deleting the post and apologising.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 17:44:27 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 17:45:12 GMT
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Post by jib on Jul 12, 2023 17:56:41 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. The 'scandal' seeming to consist of legal and consensual activity between adults as far as we know to date - certainly the police see no evidence of criminality. But Edwards now receiving health treatment for severe depression. I have a feeling Danny may be right on this one - there is a definite whiff of homophobia about this, coupled with Murdoch's endless campaign to undermine the BBC for commercial reasons. Feels a bit like the BBCs version of the Schofield scandal. As long as all were consenting adults. As you say, the Sun is a News Corp publication.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 18:26:46 GMT
Most of your points refer to the current system which both CON and LAB are seeking to change (eg the reason that so high a % of those using "unorthodox" routes are eventually granted asylum is due to issues such as Theresa May's 'Modern Day Slavery' Act (2015)' being misused by 'do bad' lawyers) - hence the need to change UK law. The media just recently seems to have had a couple of stories about gay teenagers being persecuted for their lifestyle choices. Pilloried for choosing relationships with older people. But thats nothing compared to what goes on abroad in many countries. Disproportionately many refugees are gay, because they would be persecuted back home. Much of the world lives in conditions we would not consider acceptable and so might qualify for assylum. This is nothing to do with details of UK legislation but the fundamental internationally agreed definition of refugees. It has certainly been done before, just not here. Dumping people you dont like somewhere horrible is quite common. A certain A. Hitler was quite keen on re-homing unwanted migrants. The choice of Rwanda as a new home is quite pertinent here, certainly for all the gay refugees since it rather homophobic and I doubt brits would be pleased to be dumped there. But its recent history of instability and lawlessness is hardly encouraging for anyone. Its very telling that this was the only place the Uk could find willing to be paid to take refugees and house them in barracks which would not be acceptable in the Uk as prisons. It seems highly likely rwanda will not work, because even if the hurdles are met and some people get sent there, we will then get feedback about what disasters befel them, and the process will be halted. Now if we were sending them to Australia or Canada, or even the US, things might be different. Oddly those places are also refusing to take them. So we are going to come back to the problem what to do about these people and many, many more. Con do not care about that, because there will be an election before any of this can play out. All they need at the moment is a policy, any policy, they can claim would work but others are preventing it. In fact its a lot better for them to be doing it now rather than 2019, because had it been 2019, by now we might already be hearing the disaster stories from people sent there. Think of them as travel agents. They take people lawfully entitled to claim assylum in the Uk and deliver them to the UK so they can claim it. Do you mean government ministers conspiring to prevent international commitments the uK made from actually happening? I appreciate that is not the image the conservatives are seeking to present, but frankly it is the truth the smugglers are helping people to claim their rights, while ministers of the crown are trying to prevent them, unlawfully, from doing so. Well indeed. But the trouble is, its ministers of the crown breaking the law. The right way forward would be to properly change those laws, only they are unable to because the UK has signed away its sovereignty in international agreements which are nothing whatever to do with the EU. Brexiteers missed their target. Although strictly we remain sovereign. Its just that the penalties of ending those agreements would be worse than the diffiulties from the number of refugees. Which is actually very small compared to the numbers we admit voluntarily, even ask to come here.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 18:35:25 GMT
There are technically five local government by-elections tomorrow, but one of them is one of those weird City of London ones with the tiny electorates so I shall ignore that. The others are: NEWHAM LBC; Boleyn (Lab resigned) Candidates: DUROJAIYE, Lawrencia (Conservative) HUDSON-SMALL, Joe (Green) MIRZA, Mehmood (Independent) OXLEY, Daniel Charles (Reform UK) PATEL, Sofia (Labour) TERRAR, David Graham (Liberal Democrat) 2022: Lab 1756, 1487, 1450; Con 538, 406, 367; Grn 524, 494; 377; CPA 152 On the face of it a safe Labour seat but apparently the Greens are making a major push to try to take it. NEWHAM LBC; Wall End (Lab resigned) Candidates: CHEEMA, Tassadduq Hussain (Green) GARFIELD, Stephanie Louise (Labour) KANNAN, Durai (Conservative) PATTIE, Claire Louise (Liberal Democrat) SANDGROUND, David Kenton (Reform UK) 2022: Lab 2118, 1929, 1882; Ind 957; Con 648, 461, 412; Grn 392, 336, 300; CPA 142, 139, 99: RefUK 103 This one is a safe Labour seat by any standards. NORFOLK CC; West Depwade (Con died) Candidates: HOLDEN, Tony (Conservatives) REEKIE, Pam (Labour) ROWETT, Catherine Joanna (Green) SPRATT, Beverley (Independent) SPRATT, Ian Victor (Liberal Democrat) 2021: Con 1632; Ind 888; Lab 478; LD 394; Grn 349 Safe Conservative ward, never been won by anyone else. Two Spratts standing so clean platters can be expected. ROTHERHAM MBC; Dinnington (Technically Ind but really Con defence) Candidates: HALL, Julz (Conservative) HARRISON, Tony (Reform UK) KEY, Peter Robert (Yorkshire Party) MARTIN, Paul Neville (Green) MEARS, Matt (Liberal Democrat) SMITH, Dave (Independent) VJESTICA, John (Labour) 2021: Con 1137, 916, 841; Lab 799, 738, 712; Ind 601, 389; Grn 316, 308; LD 284 The most interesting of the four. It will be seen that the highest ranked Labour candidate was only 42 short of the lowest ranked Tory, so a Labour gain is not impossible, albeit it is a Conservative leaning ward.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 18:35:44 GMT
Some big deserts too. Wouldnt want to live there. Though I seem to remember that at the time of the roman empire, they were much more habitable. Climate change? Thats all very well, but the problem is those places which do suffer from climate change so their populations become refugees. Are you suggesting the Africans will be happy to take them in? I rather doubt it! While obviosuly people need access to birth control, the other issue is whether they choose to use it. That depends on them becoming more wealthy. That means investment, not just education, at least if we are in a hurry to make it happen. So the route out of this problem is a very expensive one.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 18:40:20 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. And saying he is "suffering from severe mental health issues". Which brings another raft of questions. The allegations that brought all this to a head go back several years. And I'm prepared to believe so do the mental health issues. So how on earth was someone with such problems allowed to remain in his position, with such a stressful job, for so long!? Hard to believe nobody at work was unaware for so long? We're not just talking about a minor figure - arguably the public face of BBC News. More and more questions for the BBC to answer. Surely his mental health problems are likely to stem from the actions of the Sun. Ok we dont know what happened but the least you can say presently is that nothing has been proven against him, but his career has just been trashed. Police apparently already had been invited and declined to intervene, presumably seeing no lawbreaking. If there was no lawbreaking, why was he subjected to this? If there was, why is this happening in a blaze of publicity and not a proper investigation, but on that score it seem the parents tried to get the police involved and they refused. They tried to get the BBC involved and lost patience when the BBC was unable to question them further. We dont know if anyone has been paid for these stories? (well, obviously the journalists were)
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 18:42:45 GMT
Just seen a note about sea surface temperatures around Florida showing much of it is 32-33C. That's hot tub levels - in the seas. As a species, our ability to ignore f@cking great alarm bells and carry on as if everything is fine is astonishing. Not really. Milllions of years of evolution left us capable of dealing with the covid outbreak using our built in immune systems. But at the same time it has left us rather complacent about our own invincibility. History says that as a species we always won out. I guess the way it has always worked is that enough people in dominant positions have always come up with the right answer in time. But again, as a species, I dont see there is a problem. The species will survive. If a few billion died on the way, well thats history.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 18:49:25 GMT
I think this piece from the BBC's live feed tell you all you really need to know:
17:26
News UK skilled at amplifying its journalism, ex-employee says
The Sun is part of a "media ecosystem" - News UK - that is "extremely good at amplifying its own reporting", a journalist who used to work for the company has said.
Jake Kanter, investigations editor at Deadline, said the Sun's story about the BBC presenter has been "talked about endlessly in the outrage machine that is TalkRadio and TalkTV" - both media organisations that fall under the News UK brand.
Kanter is the former media correspondent at the Times, which is also owned by News UK.
"Then you have politicians that work for that news station, someone like [Conservative MP] Nadine Dorries, commenting on the story, saying the BBC is not doing enough here and accusing the BBC of a cover-up.
"So this all works in the favour of News UK and they've got the BBC right where they want them," Kanter tells the BBC's Media Show.
It's just a pity that News UK weren't forced to close the Sun at the same time as they were forced to close the News of the World. Scum journalists.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 18:57:11 GMT
crossbat11 “ In our case, that "thingy" requested by my wife will be my 1982 Villa European Cup winners shirt. This seems to have mysterious contraceptive powers in that she won't come anywhere near me when I've got it on. Mind you, I did say that I'd never wash it again from the moment I staggered out of the Feyenoord Stadium in Rotterdam over 40 years ago. I've been good to my word too. The 1977 League Cup Winners shirt, however, seems to have the opposite effect and is now tattered and torn.” I hadn’t realised that the Villa had won stuff as recently as that. Blimey! In my lifetime too. You will know by now than I'm much older than I look. My youthful appearance and stubborn good looks are, as my doctor pithily commented recently, bordering on a biological wonder. Well, that deserves another blimey! I didn’t think it was possible to be older than wot you look Batty.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 18:59:03 GMT
Huw Edwards named by his wife as presenter at centre of scandal. Thanks for that…
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 18:59:50 GMT
And the police, after investigating the case, have said that there is no evidence that they can see that any illegality is involved. They are taking it no further. I was actually given his name last night by someone who advised it was being widely referred to on Twitter. Wow….fancy that.
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