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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:35:35 GMT
Well as she has hardly been in Parliament for the last year I suppose she had plenty of time to write it What makes you think she wrote it. Almost certainly it was a ghostwriter to whom she gave a plot outline. Mad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 9:36:31 GMT
Danny - perhaps it might be better if we all wait for the facts to emerge before pontificating on such private matters? Although I'm aware you tend not to let facts interrupt your decision making processes. If you're waiting for facts to emerge you'll be waiting a long time, for the simple reason that there aren't any.
Every newsroom in the country will know who the annonymous BBC presenter is, and yet after four days of running this "story" not one of them ( and most notably not the Sun ) has dared to publish his name. Why do you imagine that is ?
The only story here is one of unaccountable abuse of power by sections of the media that feel free to destroy peoples lives by promulgating lies and innuendo, knowing there will be no comebacks for themselves.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 12, 2023 9:40:31 GMT
I was surprised that one item of news went almost completely unremarked yesterday. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Of course, one data point doesn't make a trend, but given rising interest rates and all the other economic woe, who would bet against a steady rise in unemployment between now and the next GE? Carfrew was kind enough the other day to credit me with flagging up the emerging rise in gas prices well before their significance was widely appreciated. So as my latest canary-in-a-coalmine tribute act, I give you advance warning of 2024-25 unemployment angst. We hear many commentators telling us that we now do have 'Full Employment' . Back in the mid - late 1960s an unemployment rate of 2% was not viewed as being socially or politically acceptable. It contributed to the deep unpopularity of the Labour government during the 1966 - 70 Parliament. There was also outrage in the early 70s when the 1 million mark was breached under the Heath government.It appears that we have grown accustomed now to so much higher levels of joblessness that a 4% rate makes little impact. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 9:42:23 GMT
It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) I haven't checked but I think it's supposed to peak at no more than 10 billion and probably less. Re Africa I've got a feeling that the continent is going to start exploding developmentally in the near future. The next century could be an African one. I remember from Star Trek that Federation warp engines are constructed in Senegal  By by Biodiversity. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 9:44:42 GMT
Well as she has hardly been in Parliament for the last year I suppose she had plenty of time to write it What makes you think she wrote it. Almost certainly it was a ghostwriter to whom she gave a plot outline. Mad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read. Presumably though it claims to be true rather than fiction? (Obviously in reality it is the latter as there was no plot against Johnson. He destroyed himself). |
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Post by davem on Jul 12, 2023 9:46:40 GMT
It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) There are some pretty big error bars on all population projections, and what usually gets quoted is the median. What is uncontroversial though is that in almost all developed countries the birth rate is well below replacement rate (which is about 2.1 children per woman) and by the end of this century about half of the world's population will be living in one continent - Africa. This link gives the most up to date data on the number of children per woman. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 9:47:55 GMT
Crikey, so many good posts this morning. What's not to like??? đ𤣠Well, I am rather missing the analysis of the 1931 election which didnât go on half long enough for me.  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 9:52:38 GMT
I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) I haven't checked but I think it's supposed to peak at no more than 10 billion and probably less. Re Africa I've got a feeling that the continent is going to start exploding developmentally in the near future. The next century could be an African one. I remember from Star Trek that Federation warp engines are constructed in Senegal |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:53:42 GMT
There are some pretty big error bars on all population projections, and what usually gets quoted is the median. What is uncontroversial though is that in almost all developed countries the birth rate is well below replacement rate (which is about 2.1 children per woman) and by the end of this century about half of the world's population will be living in one continent - Africa. This link gives the most up to date data on the number of children per woman. Notably, the developed country with the highest fertility rate is Israel at 3.0, followed by the Faroe Islands at 2.3. With Israel's population growing at 1.6% per annum and being 9.73 million as of March 2023, by 2100 at this rate there will be 33 million Israelis. I won't go any further as this will only encourage the rabid anti-semites. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 9:55:47 GMT
leftieliberalâMad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read.â I think it is all too easy to think that people who we find irritating and who say things that are patently untrue areâ madâ, stupidâ or some other epithet. In her own way I imagine Nadine Dorries is quite clever.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 9:58:19 GMT
I don't understand the concern about population, it's all a bit 20th century. It's now pretty well accepted I think that fertility levels are plummeting in most of the world with even China worrying about how it's going to support an ageing population and India peaking. As I understand it within a few decades the only continent continuing population growth will be Africa and even there it will slow. Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. Maybe my reply to athena via mercian's post was a little provocative on reflection but I have a deep disquiet when I hear the concept of population control bandied about, especially when, presumably, it means state sponsored control and not entirely a matter of considered personal choice. The joy that having children can bring goes to the heart of what it is to be human. It is often the bedrock of a life fulfilling relationship between two people. Procreation is part of who we are as a species. Childlessness can be one of nature's cruellest tricks and a source of great misery. When people talk about the need for reproduction control what is it that they mean? In practice, how does it work when it isn't left to a momentous and life-changing decision between just two people. Over population can be an issue in certain parts of the globe, but maybe there is alarmism about it too and we need to look at other causes, and solutions too, to climate change that don't involve drastic changes to people's ability to move freely around the world and that don't interfere with people's choices whether to have children or not. Yes, I know it's an incredibly subjective thing but I came to parenthood really quite late and had been very ambivalent about it up to that point as my parents didn't exactly make the experience appear enjoyable! By far the most enjoyable, fulfilling and knackering thing I've ever done. |
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Post by davem on Jul 12, 2023 10:01:39 GMT
Notably, the developed country with the highest fertility rate is Israel at 3.0, followed by the Faroe Islands at 2.3. Yes and the figure for Israel, is a cause for concern, the already difficult political situation will only get worse if the population doubles in two generations, and that is without any further immigration, will only produce even greater conflict over land. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 10:05:03 GMT
Just to break the UKPR2 bubble and relate a tale of 'real politics'. I have had 115 messages today (since 12.15) on the Braintree Labour whatsapp group concerning the single most important political event of the day - namely the Conservative administration of Braintree DC's decision to impose charges for the kerbside collection of green garden waste. It has spawned a petition on change.org, a catchy name (Tory Bin Tax) and a somewhat tetchy row between some Labour members who take different views on the subject. Councils are broke. All of them. Increasing charges for non-statutory services is a necessity to stave off bankruptcy. Almost all councils charge for green waste - mine introduced them 6 or 7 years ago. In the unlikely event that Labour takes control of Braintree DC they certainly won't be repealing these charges. I only really mentioned it as a reminder that a lot of people care far more about this sort of thing than - for example - Brexit. However, for the record, the politics of it is that: (a) when you start charging for a long-established service that has always been free, people don't like it, (b) the Tories said before the May election they had no plans to charge for bin collection and then introduced it 2 months later, (c) whether it is a good idea or not it is a useful stick to beat the Tories with and both Labour and the Green party are already doing do - that's politics folks (had the roles been reversed the Conservatives would have done the same of course), (d) there is a risk of it promoting undesired behaviour - general waste will continue to be collected 'free' (obviously we all pay Council Tax) so the logical step for those without immediate access to somewhere to fly-tip it as Steve suggests, is to bag it up and stick it in general waste. It will then decompose and add to the gas emissions from landfill. Asked about that risk the council said "well we hope people won't do that" which wasn't entirely reassuring! The Council's claimed aim is to promote home composting. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 10:08:53 GMT
leftieliberal âMad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read.â I think it is all too easy to think that people who we find irritating and who say things that are patently untrue areâ madâ, stupidâ or some other epithet. In her own way I imagine Nadine Dorries is quite clever.
I think you should provide evidence for such an outlandish claim. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 10:09:27 GMT
Notably, the developed country with the highest fertility rate is Israel at 3.0, followed by the Faroe Islands at 2.3. Yes and the figure for Israel, is a cause for concern, the already difficult political situation will only get worse if the population doubles in two generations, and that is without any further immigration, will only produce even greater conflict over land. Well, Europe could welcome the Jews back from over-crowded Israel. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 12, 2023 10:15:26 GMT
Just on reproduction, having children is not a problem but having more than two is. If no one had more than two children, and given some people would have one or none, the world population would fall. To achieve this needs women to have equality, education and control over their own bodies through access to contraception and abortion. The evidence is clear that where this applies women choose to have fewer children (no draconian state intervention needed). The 'new right' are of course fighting hard against all of that.
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Post by davem on Jul 12, 2023 10:18:17 GMT
Councils are broke. All of them. Increasing charges for non-statutory services is a necessity to stave off bankruptcy. Almost all councils charge for green waste - mine introduced them 6 or 7 years ago. In the unlikely event that Labour takes control of Braintree DC they certainly won't be repealing these charges. I only really mentioned it as a reminder that a lot of people care far more about this sort of thing then gree - for example - Brexit. However, for the record, the politics of it is that: (a) when you start charging for a long-established service that has always been free, people don't like it, (b) the Tories said before the May election they had no plans to charge for bin collection and then introduced it 2 months later, (c) whether it is a good idea or not it is a useful stick to beat the Tories with and both Labour and the Green party are already doing do - that's politics folks (had the roles been reversed the Conservatives would have done the same of course), (d) there is a risk of it promoting undesired behaviour - general waste will continue to be collected 'free' (obviously we all pay Council Tax) so the logical step for those without immediate access to somewhere to fly-tip it as Steve suggests, is to bag it up and stick it in general waste. It will then decompose and add to the gas emissions from landfill. Asked about that risk the council said "well we hope people won't do that" which wasn't entirely reassuring! The Council's claimed aim is to promote home composting. I agree, all politics is local is often quoted, this is very true at ward level campaigning. We found that while we were doing lots of things locally we were not telling people about them and that allowed the local Tory room to take photos of himself pointing at a few things that needed doing and complaining in Facebook posts and a couple of leaflets. The result was that on the doorstep people were saying look at him he is doing all of this and what are you (Labour) doing. This is despite the fact that he never reported the issues and left that to the Labour councillors who actually got them sorted! So since the May elections, where the Tories cut the Labour majority to 101, against national trends we have changed tack and every time we report an issue we are writing to the residents who are effected by the issue and following this up with a second letter to say what the out come has been, 90% of the time it is to report that it has been fixed. Our next ward wide leaflet will include a map with pins dropped where Labour activists have reported problems and taken action and where the Tories have claimed to report things. As it stands the score is 84 interventions by Labour and two by others, both of these were not followed up and were finally sorted after Labour reported them. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 10:33:16 GMT
leftieliberal âMad Nads is too stupid to write a book that anyone would want to read.â I think it is all too easy to think that people who we find irritating and who say things that are patently untrue areâ madâ, stupidâ or some other epithet. In her own way I imagine Nadine Dorries is quite clever.
I think you should provide evidence for such an outlandish claim. It was just something I imagined PJ. Like wot I sed. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 10:35:27 GMT
Just on reproduction, having children is not a problem but having more than two is. If no one had more than two children, and given some people would have one or none, the world population would fall. To achieve this needs women to have equality, education and control over their own bodies through access to contraception and abortion. The evidence is clear that where this applies women choose to have fewer children (no draconian state intervention needed). The 'new right' are of course fighting hard against all of that. You could arrange âswapsiesâ (maybe make some money on the side.) âWe wonât have any so you can have four. Thatâll be fifty quid, ta very much.â |
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Post by athena on Jul 12, 2023 10:47:17 GMT
pjw1961 - here in Co Durham, in deepest Northern Ireland, we've always paid for green waste collections. This has just recently been taken over by DCC from a charity company that set the system up many years ago. In Harrow it was a Labour council that brought in the charge for collecting green waste (it had previously been collected for free). The Tories when they got in last year rather deviously claimed that they had reduced the green waste charge, when what they actually did was to remove the option of a summer-only collection, forcing everyone who wanted their green waste collected to pay for the year-round collection at a slightly lower price than Labour's year-round collection. In my area it was also Lab who introduced charges for green waste. Previously if you had garden waste you wanted collecting you picked up free green sacks and this option was widely used. When green bins and the annual charge were introduced everyone just reverted to putting hedge clippings etc. in their black bin - only one household on my street has a green bin. The scheme seems a bit futile. |
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Post by athena on Jul 12, 2023 10:54:25 GMT
and whilst I'm on the subject of rubbish, another incidental idiocy is that the max. fine for fly-tipping (per notices inside city limits) is ÂŁ20,000, whereas the max fine for lighting a fire or using a barbeque out in the national park (where a wildfire causes loss of upland habitat, can wipe out populations of nationally endangered upland species and is horribly difficult and expensive for the fire service to control) is ÂŁ1000.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 12, 2023 10:55:34 GMT
Re: green bin charges. In Bristol we have a charge for a fortnighly collection, it has recently doubled. Labour Authority, Labour Mayor. No collection in January and frequent unplanned interruptions in the service. All the houses in my little terrace have a green bin, except one who instead insists on regular bonfires for the woody garden waste. Even with a really well run compost system in our garden I do use the green bin for certain things, like the laurel clippings which I don't want in my compost. It is still actually quite a good deal for us. It is still free to take garden waste to the tip, but those without cars can't do that, so pay I must.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 10:56:38 GMT
So what of the prospects of political parties who supported or enabled brexit, such as labour? Well, you tell me. (Opps, perhaps I shouldn't say that, coz you might!) Brexit was a solution to a problem that hasn't gone away. An ageing populaton that cannot function without more young people. And an ageing population, some of whom think that the world should be the same as when they were young, and know nothing (or are unwilling to think about) our demographic change.
All I hear is our country is full, we can't build more houses. I don't hear, because of the amazing progress of modern science you older people are refusing to die, and so are keeping the country 'full', your longer lives are causing this. We need more houses to house all those people we need to bring in to help service your retirement needs (because your hostile enviornment extends to your own kid's non-existant families too).
No party seems to be willing to tell their prospective voters that they are the problem! I've no idea what their prospects are! But time will tell. :-)
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Post by athena on Jul 12, 2023 11:02:15 GMT
I don't understand the concern about population, it's all a bit 20th century. It's now pretty well accepted I think that fertility levels are plummeting in most of the world with even China worrying about how it's going to support an ageing population and India peaking. As I understand it within a few decades the only continent continuing population growth will be Africa and even there it will slow. Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. The climate crisis will reduce the number of people the planet can support. The greater the population, the lower the per person carbon quota for a given level of carbon emissions and consequently the greater the change in lifestyle required to reduce global carbon emissions and limit the rise in temperature. You've presumably registered that everyone is being urged to fly less, drive less, eat less meat and dairy produce (because livestock farming is responsible for a hefty chunk of methane and carbon dioxide emissions) etc.? That's the tip of the iceberg if we're serious about trying to support anywhere near the current global population. If we could reduce the population we'd make both the emission reduction problem and the climate refugee problem easier to tackle. |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 11:06:33 GMT
To anyone interested in demographics these five radio programmes are definitely worth a listen: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001324h/episodes/playerRethink Population
Amol Rajan and his guests look at the facts about population change and challenge some of the long-held assumptions about demography. Edit: Added the programme details. Diverse and interesting: 1/5 Is demography destiny?
Amol Rajan and guests rethink some of our long-held assumptions about demography.
2/5 The Great British Baby Bust
Amol Rajan and guests rethink what falling fertility rates mean for Britain's future.
3/5 Living in a young country
Some countries face a huge growth in young people - will it be good or bad for them?
4/5 What Japan can teach us
Japan is ageing fast, so what can it teach us about living in an old society?
5/5 Getting ready for the 100-year life
As the world ages, how can it prepare for a very different sort of future?
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 12, 2023 11:09:22 GMT
mercian On the death penalty "A modern reintroduction could include safeguards" You still end up dead! Exactly. The ONLY safeguard is NO DEATH PENALTY. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 11:10:56 GMT
" In her own way I imagine Nadine Dorries is quite clever." she's amazingly good at hiding it youtu.be/Ve63pA573ZA |
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 11:16:04 GMT
somerjohn - will keep an eye on those unemployment rates. Another oddity in the employment stats was the first falls in those off sick for a long time. Long term sick fell by ~30K (7%) while short term sick was down 16K (~70%). Given that we know a proportion of long covid sufferers do recover over time, it's logical to think that a period of lower infection rates would have the effect of reducing short term sickness by quite a lot, and long term sickness by a little, which is exactly what we have now seen. It's also possible that a proportion of the high level of new retirements are older people previously on long term sick leave moving into full retirement. What the figures don't appear to suggest is that the prime driver of the sickness rate is NHS delays. These are relevant, but if these were the dominant factor, without any recent improvements in NHS metrics, there is no reason to expect a fall in sick numbers; they ought to keep on rising if it's an NHS issue. If it's an infection based driver, then yes, we would expect numbers to rise after high infections, and reduce when we're in a covid trough. Time will tell, but another wave will probably see these numbers go back up again.
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Post by athena on Jul 12, 2023 11:17:22 GMT
On the other hand, assuming that the UK remains relatively habitable as the climate catastrophe unfolds, we should expect to take in climate refugees, even if that means controls on the reproduction of people who're already here.
I agreed with most of the rest of your post but really?? You'd seriously prioritise taking refugees over the right of existing citizens to have children! I'm flabbergasted. Good luck getting that policy through democratically. Or perhaps you're anticipating a dictatorship following a revolution? I suppose we'd need loads of refugees to police the restive native population? Yep. I would. If the human population is to be reduced dramatically I think it would be worth making an effort to preserve its genetic and cultural diversity. I doubt it'll play out that way - the pressure on land and other resources will probably prove too great - but I would like to hope that before the situation deteriorates too much there could be some kind of international accord under which the more habitable nations agree to take a certain number of people from countries that are going to be inundated or too hot. You should bear in mind that I also think it's worth making an effort to preserve the planet's biodiversity more generally. Not just for all the practical reasons, but because I think that the myriad species and incredibly complex ecosystems that are the outcome of billions of years of evolution are fascinating and wonderful and it would be a shame if they were wiped out by our addiction to carbon. I'm a quality over quantity person on this. I'd much rather the future was one in which the human population was 4 or 5 billion and everyone had a reasonable quality of life. I'd also much rather we got to that figure by imposing restrictions on reproduction than through wars over resources, diseases, heat-related mortality or shooting people at borders. As I said in my original post, I don't have any brilliant ideas for achieving this. I suppose I'd say the very first step towards a managed reduction in population would be for it to become a topic for serious discussion, because without public discussion there is no chance of building social consent... |
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Post by Mark on Jul 12, 2023 11:18:23 GMT
Richard Tice (RUK) is quite right to call it a "shambolic farce" and mock CON HMG for their failure to get Rwanda scheme started* but does Kinnock realise that aping RUK is probably not that smart a move given LAB are almost certainly going to have an OM after GE'24? I agree with this, but, for different resons to those that Trevor puts forward. I am increasingly uneasy with the way that the Labour leasership are going on the issue of refugees / the Rwanda scheme et al. The underlying tone from Labour (and evidenced from Kinnock here) isn't that the scheme (and the tories reterick and actions re-asylum seekers n general) isn't that it is illegal under international law, isn't that it is inhumane, isn't that t is simply wrong, it is simply that Labour in government will simply be more efficient at it. The fact is that almost 80% of those that come here via unorthadox routes that have actually been procesed - by this government are granted asylum. You could say many things about this government (and I, for one, do so on a regular basis), but, being a soft touch regarding asylm seekers isn't one of them. The fact is that not only do e take far less refugees than many other comparable Europen countries, but, also that far fewer come here to claim asylum than comparative EU countries in the first place. The huge backlog in asylem claims is driven by tory austerity and tory cuts. Put in place measures to reverse that - and then some - and you tackle the backlog. This in turn reduces the number that are in limbo in hotels. If you want to tackle the criminal gangs that put lives at risk, then re-open safe and legal routes. You could even have a weekly ferry from Calais or processig sites in Calais for those that want to come to the UK. Language is also important. The tories repeatedly referrig to 'illegals' is delibarate, used as a dog whistle to a cetain demographic and also sows division and mistrust. Labour should be, just as regularly referring to asylum seekers or even refugees in the same context. |
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