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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 7:30:55 GMT
Times reports on two authors in USA writing about Biden behind closed doors at the Whitehouse.
Apparently he has a regular volcanic temper.Staff are terrified of him etc etc.
It makes you wonder about the people we elect to run the World.
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Post by barbara on Jul 12, 2023 7:31:07 GMT
Sorry, I've clearly obfuscated my point too much. After the war the London Treaty, which was signed in 1949, set up the Council of Europe. One of its stunning achievements was to get the whole of Europe to sign up to agreeing to abolish capital punishment. Obviously it was heavily influenced by the time, being so near to war.
And now that we all agree captial punishment is bad, that decision is locked into the GFA. I fully concur that 'once you have hanged someone for a crime they did not commit you cannot bring them back to life.' And that is my primary objection to capital punishment. But neither the Birmingham Six nor the Guilford Four were executed.
A modern reintroduction could include safeguards such as DNA evidence being an absolute requirement. But you're still in favour of the government murdering its own citizens on your behalf. Well not on mine. |
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 7:31:14 GMT
Danny - perhaps it might be better if we all wait for the facts to emerge before pontificating on such private matters? Although I'm aware you tend not to let facts interrupt your decision making processes.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 7:32:36 GMT
I'm presuming that the poster you are replying to "has controlled his own reproduction" just as he suggests others must do too in time. I'm presuming also there will be a Reproduction Control and Monitoring Unit who will decide numbers and the finer detail. Paragons of progeny control like this poster will no doubt be a key developer of overall reproduction policy. Who it applies to, the enforcement regime, penalties for exceeding limits etc I have say that I'm always a little suspicious of people who advocate reproduction control for other people. I don't understand the concern about population, it's all a bit 20th century. It's now pretty well accepted I think that fertility levels are plummeting in most of the world with even China worrying about how it's going to support an ageing population and India peaking. As I understand it within a few decades the only continent continuing population growth will be Africa and even there it will slow. Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. Maybe my reply to athena via mercian's post was a little provocative on reflection but I have a deep disquiet when I hear the concept of population control bandied about, especially when, presumably, it means state sponsored control and not entirely a matter of considered personal choice. The joy that having children can bring goes to the heart of what it is to be human. It is often the bedrock of a life fulfilling relationship between two people. Procreation is part of who we are as a species. Childlessness can be one of nature's cruellest tricks and a source of great misery. When people talk about the need for reproduction control what is it that they mean? In practice, how does it work when it isn't left to a momentous and life-changing decision between just two people. Over population can be an issue in certain parts of the globe, but maybe there is alarmism about it too and we need to look at other causes, and solutions too, to climate change that don't involve drastic changes to people's ability to move freely around the world and that don't interfere with people's choices whether to have children or not. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 12, 2023 7:32:56 GMT
Just to break the UKPR2 bubble and relate a tale of 'real politics'. I have had 115 messages today (since 12.15) on the Braintree Labour whatsapp group concerning the single most important political event of the day - namely the Conservative administration of Braintree DC's decision to impose charges for the kerbside collection of green garden waste. It has spawned a petition on change.org, a catchy name (Tory Bin Tax) and a somewhat tetchy row between some Labour members who take different views on the subject. I live in the Durham COuncil area and pay £32 a year for a fortnightly collection between April and November. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 7:36:01 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 7:40:15 GMT
I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 7:40:33 GMT
colinYou can take the president out of Scranton but not Scranton out of the president. There are no reports however of Biden having an infantile temper tantrum and throwing his food at the walls.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 7:42:44 GMT
mercianOn the death penalty "A modern reintroduction could include safeguards" You still end up dead!
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 12, 2023 7:46:19 GMT
Your core problem, Trevor, is that the Tory scheme is unworkable and would not reduce "illegal" migration or asylum numbers.Asking whether Lab have a workable plan either (of course not!) If fair enough, but implying a plan that is so bad it has yet to be implemented, is unlikely to ever be implanted, and wouldn't work to appreciably reduce numbers even if it could be implanted; is the solution, is rather clutching at paper straws. Thank you for the view from LAB HQ (not) I suppose you visited the future and saw that the Rwanda scheme would not be a 'deterrent' but that, instead, it would encourage people to spend £thousands to illegally enter UK and then be deported to Rwanda. I don't have a time travel device but I suggest your one is based on nonsense from LAB HQ - who with no viable plan of their own are saying something that hasn't been tried won't work. The reason a scheme like Rwanda hasn't been tried before (although Denmark have come close) is coz the law needs to be changed before the scheme can be used. If you made an effort to understand the issues, rather than regurgitate LAB HQ drivel, then you'd understand that. NB The Rwanda scheme is just one of the numerous measures that we need to take. Obviously we can't control EU's external borders directly but we can 'help' with that. Then we have a very expensive deal with France - although the jury is out on the 'value for money' of that then we are very obviously already working with our neighbours (although LAB HQ might tell you we are not and you might believe that) |
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Post by wb61 on Jul 12, 2023 7:52:51 GMT
Re: the discussion on reproduction
It is a fact that the most efficient way of reducing reproduction is education, particularly when girls and young women are have the opportunity to go to school and advance to higher education.
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Post by wb61 on Jul 12, 2023 7:55:37 GMT
Re: the discussion on the Death Penalty
if killing people is wrong, how is it made right by killing another person?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 12, 2023 8:18:20 GMT
Says everything you need to know about this shambles of a Government
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 12, 2023 8:19:53 GMT
Just to break the UKPR2 bubble and relate a tale of 'real politics'. I have had 115 messages today (since 12.15) on the Braintree Labour whatsapp group concerning the single most important political event of the day - namely the Conservative administration of Braintree DC's decision to impose charges for the kerbside collection of green garden waste. It has spawned a petition on change.org, a catchy name (Tory Bin Tax) and a somewhat tetchy row between some Labour members who take different views on the subject. Councils are broke. All of them. Increasing charges for non-statutory services is a necessity to stave off bankruptcy. Almost all councils charge for green waste - mine introduced them 6 or 7 years ago. In the unlikely event that Labour takes control of Braintree DC they certainly won't be repealing these charges. |
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Post by somerjohn on Jul 12, 2023 8:20:53 GMT
I was surprised that one item of news went almost completely unremarked yesterday.
The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%.
Of course, one data point doesn't make a trend, but given rising interest rates and all the other economic woe, who would bet against a steady rise in unemployment between now and the next GE?
Carfrew was kind enough the other day to credit me with flagging up the emerging rise in gas prices well before their significance was widely appreciated. So as my latest canary-in-a-coalmine tribute act, I give you advance warning of 2024-25 unemployment angst.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 12, 2023 8:24:43 GMT
Well as she has hardly been in Parliament for the last year I suppose she had plenty of time to write it
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Post by davem on Jul 12, 2023 8:27:14 GMT
Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. A good point. The UK wouldnt need any of the millions of immigrants government is encouraging if it had more births here. But this raises the question that most western government are fixated on the idea that (slowly) rising population sizes are essential. As you say this can only be prevented by increasing immigration, which seems to be a policy many voters deeply oppose. The ridiculous situation where conservatives supported brexit to enable a reduction in the rate of immigration, when they actually are encouraging immigration! I have just been looking at some data on birth rates and far from being concerned about overcrowding in the U.K. and Europe we could be looking at a significant drop in population. Some numbers. The current live birth rate of child per woman n the U.K. is 1.6. For every 100 people (50% male and female) that gives 80 live births. Second generation will have 64 live births Third generation will have 38 live births. That is a drop of 72% in about 100 years. in China the figure is 1.2 live births for each woman, after three generations that would reduce the 100 people to only 22. Hong Kong is at 0.8 live births per woman, giving a three generation population drop of 95%. That opens up the question of how we look after the old and infirm with an ever decreasing population. The drop in birth rates has been hidden by the increase in life expectancy, but this seems to have stalled, so children born today are likely to experience a falling population. It is only in poorer countries where birth rates are resulting in increasing populations, but there live births per woman are falling quickly in these countries as well and the forecasters seem to indicate that by 2050 the world wide birth rate will fall below that needed to replace the population, so by the end of this century we will see a fall in the total population of the world. Interesting times and interesting decisions to be made. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 8:27:41 GMT
I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) You're quite right. The figure should have been 9 billion in 2050. I've dredged up the report I was referring to:- www.sciencealert.com/earths-population-could-soon-start-falling-heres-whyP.S. I was tempted to say, what's a billion people between friends?? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 12, 2023 8:29:29 GMT
Crikey, so many good posts this morning.
What's not to like???
😉🤣
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 8:37:51 GMT
I was surprised that one item of news went almost completely unremarked yesterday. The unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Of course, one data point doesn't make a trend, but given rising interest rates and all the other economic woe, who would bet against a steady rise in unemployment between now and the next GE? Carfrew was kind enough the other day to credit me with flagging up the emerging rise in gas prices well before their significance was widely appreciated. So as my latest canary-in-a-coalmine tribute act, I give you advance warning of 2024-25 unemployment angst. Given that our Central Bank-along with the Fed are trying to engineer recession and an end to hot labour markets , I think you're on to a winner. www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/09/does-america-need-more-unemployment |
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Post by shevii on Jul 12, 2023 8:48:17 GMT
The joy that having children can bring goes to the heart of what it is to be human. It is often the bedrock of a life fulfilling relationship between two people. Procreation is part of who we are as a species. Childlessness can be one of nature's cruellest tricks and a source of great misery. They're horrible things Batty- you could probably get about 20 cats for the cost of one human child. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 12, 2023 8:55:14 GMT
A great deal of hurt and it's not just mortgage holders, there is also a knock on effect on renters
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:07:08 GMT
Only slightly tangential to the topics on this board, if you do get the opportunity to see Jack Thorne's play "When Winston went to war with the wireless", currently at the Donmar Theatre in Covent Garden, don't miss it. It tells the story of how the BBC was conflicted during the General Strike of 1926, linking it to John Reith's own internal conflicts. Would the BBC become a State broadcaster or a National broadcaster (Andrew Marr brings this out in his programme notes) and was the compromise that Reith made justified. With the BBC again under attack (and not just by the Sun newspaper) this story has a very real relevance to today. playbill.com/production/when-winston-went-to-war-with-the-wireless-london-donmar-warehouse-2023I won't quote the reviews to avoid spoilers, but I would give this play 4* (out of 5) |
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Post by davem on Jul 12, 2023 9:09:32 GMT
Re: the discussion on reproduction It is a fact that the most efficient way of reducing reproduction is education, particularly when girls and young women are have the opportunity to go to school and advance to higher education. This is a good point, I first came across this in a book by Carlo M Cipolla, The Economic History of World Population, first published in 1962, I read the 1974 Pelican Originals copy. He argued back then that the world population would stabilise as three things happened; First health care improved, the more children who survive, the fewer are needed to look after the elderly, Second as women became more educated and took more control of their own bodies and life choices, contraception would become more common, reducing the birth rate, Third, the development of welfare systems giving more security in old age, removing the need for large families to feed and care for older generations would also reduce the birth rate. At the time of the book populations across the world were increasing in all countries but you could see the rate of decline in birth rates in the developed world, which had all three of the factors in place. He correctly argued that there would be a rapid increase in population as the poorer countries improved their health care and numbers of children lost in early years declined and the average life expectancy increased. While he didn’t get everything right, he thought that the worlds population would peak below its current level, he clearly got the direction of travel right. |
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Post by James E on Jul 12, 2023 9:10:20 GMT
Have we looked at the most recent R&W 'Red Wall' which was released yesterday? Figures, with comparisons to 2 weeks ago are: Labour 52% (-1) Conservative 27% (+1) Reform UK 9% (–) Liberal Democrat 6% (–) Green 4% (–) Plaid Cymru 1% (–) Other 2% (+1) redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-9-july-2023/This is a 17 point swing compared to GE2019 compared to 16 points in the most recent R&W (Lab 48, Con27) This seems to be consistent with the trend of the past couple of months with this sample. Previously, their 'Red Wall' polls tended to show a swing a point or two lower then average than their full GB polls, which is what might have been expected with the Conservatives getting an incumbancy boost in seats they gained at the last GE. 23rd May 23% Lab lead. 16% swing v 13%GB 28th May 17% Lab lead. 13% swing v 13%GB 11th June 22% Lab lead. 15.5% swing v 13% GB 25th June 27% Lab lead. 18% swing v 15%GB 9th July 25% Lab lead. 17% swing v 16%. So the average 'Red Wall' swing is now 16% compared to 14% in R&W's GB polls on the same dates. Incidentally, this does look consistent with 'proportionate swing' for this sample, as these seats voted Con 46.7%, Lab 38%, BXP 6.5%, LD 4% in 2019. The differences to UNS become greater in safer Tory seats. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:16:15 GMT
Sorry, I've clearly obfuscated my point too much. After the war the London Treaty, which was signed in 1949, set up the Council of Europe. One of its stunning achievements was to get the whole of Europe to sign up to agreeing to abolish capital punishment. Obviously it was heavily influenced by the time, being so near to war.
And now that we all agree captial punishment is bad, that decision is locked into the GFA. I fully concur that 'once you have hanged someone for a crime they did not commit you cannot bring them back to life.' And that is my primary objection to capital punishment. But neither the Birmingham Six nor the Guilford Four were executed.
Another demonstration that there is no such thing as unutterable nonsense. Identical twins have the same DNA and I believe there was a case in the USA where a man was convicted on DNA evidence of a crime that was actually committed by his twin brother. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:23:37 GMT
pjw1961 - here in Co Durham, in deepest Northern Ireland, we've always paid for green waste collections. This has just recently been taken over by DCC from a charity company that set the system up many years ago. Back in the 1990s there was talk of revolution when the council wanted to introduce wheelie bins, with two years of angry debate before the change happened. Now households have two, possibly three wheelie bins, and everyone thinks it's great. We humans are strange beasts, bridling at any talk of change, even when those changes are patently better than what has gone before. In Harrow it was a Labour council that brought in the charge for collecting green waste (it had previously been collected for free). The Tories when they got in last year rather deviously claimed that they had reduced the green waste charge, when what they actually did was to remove the option of a summer-only collection, forcing everyone who wanted their green waste collected to pay for the year-round collection at a slightly lower price than Labour's year-round collection. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 12, 2023 9:28:50 GMT
I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) I haven't checked but I think it's supposed to peak at no more than 10 billion and probably less. Re Africa I've got a feeling that the continent is going to start exploding developmentally in the near future. The next century could be an African one. I remember from Star Trek that Federation warp engines are constructed in Senegal  |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 12, 2023 9:32:15 GMT
I tend to agree and I too saw a reputable study recently that suggested the world's population would peak at 8 billion or so by about 2050 and then steadily decline to 6.5 billion by the end of this century. It reached 8bn on November 15, 2022 ( UN) There are some pretty big error bars on all population projections, and what usually gets quoted is the median. What is uncontroversial though is that in almost all developed countries the birth rate is well below replacement rate (which is about 2.1 children per woman) and by the end of this century about half of the world's population will be living in one continent - Africa. |
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Post by James E on Jul 12, 2023 9:32:26 GMT
While I'm on the subject of the R&W 'walls': their most recent 'Blue Wall' figures show a swing 3% ahead of their comparative GB polls. This is with a sample of seats which voted Con 50%, LD 27%, Lab 21% in 2019.
7th May 4% Lab lead. 16.5% swing v 12% GB
22nd May 1% Con lead. 14% swing v 12% GB
4th June 4% Lab lead. 16.5% swing v 13% GB
18th June 7% Lab lead. 18% swing v 16%GB
2nd July 7% Lab lead. 18% swing v 15% GB
So these average as a 16.5% 'Blue Wall' swing compared to 13.5% for GB.
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