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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 11, 2023 20:51:34 GMT
Trevor's argument above boils down to saying we need to enact illegal, inhuman and racist policies now in order to head off the risk of enacting illegal, inhuman and racist policies later. I think I can detect the flaw there. Thanks for not only reading his post so that the rest of us didn't have to, a truly selfless act, and also for reproducing it in digest and intelligible form. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:03:31 GMT
On the realignment of politics. I would be delighted to see the demise of the Tories with a share of their electorate going to whatever faragist populist racist sect exists at the time, under the current first past the post system this is likely to produce no parliamentary representation or at most one or two seats in places such as Skegness. Meanwhile the less delusional Tories can split between the available alternatives, the let's make Brexit work bollocks with its red cherry on the top Labour party or the more progressive and internationalist Liberal Democrats, I would obviously prefer a situation , if we don't have a fair voting system where Labour replace the corrupt shower that is the current iteration of the Tories as the centre right alternative. It's entirely possible that the next election will see the demise of the Tories of course the ludicrous over representation for the largest party produced by fptp in this situation is likely to mean Labour with around 45% of the votes receives around 80% of the seats in England and Wales.which is far from optimal and ensures the tyranny of the minority continues. I wouldn't get too carried away. I don't know how long ago UKPR1 started but I was there pretty early. There was a long run of polls with the Tories on less than 30% and people were confidently predicting that they would never again get 30% in a GE. I'm guessing that this might have been in the Blair years. Anyway, fast forward a bit and Tories have now been in power for 13 years and counting. I expect they will lose the next GE but I think their demise is some way off. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:11:28 GMT
Interesting metaphor but of course there are exceptions. For instance the stance of the top three (at least) parties being in favour of the EU when around 50% of the electorate were against it led to the rise of UKIP. Because of the PR system for EU elections they got a lot of publicity especially when they got more votes and seats than any other party in 2014 (and even more in 2019). If we ever did get a form of PR for GEs (highly unlikely in my lifetime IMO) there might be a nasty shock for the traditional parties if they were challenged by a party whose main policy was restoration of the death sentence for instance. There might be a left-wing equivalent too. The cosy tacit agreement about trendy viewpoints could be seriously challenged. Hmm ... so the economic prosperity and security and relative political influence we enjoyed as part of the EU and have now sacrificed was just a "trendy viewpoint". Says it all really. I just think that when all major parties hold very similar views and/or policies which are not shared by a very significant proportion of the population they are asking to get their *rses kicked. Which is what happened. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 11, 2023 21:15:23 GMT
Just to break the UKPR2 bubble and relate a tale of 'real politics'. I have had 115 messages today (since 12.15) on the Braintree Labour whatsapp group concerning the single most important political event of the day - namely the Conservative administration of Braintree DC's decision to impose charges for the kerbside collection of green garden waste. It has spawned a petition on change.org, a catchy name (Tory Bin Tax) and a somewhat tetchy row between some Labour members who take different views on the subject.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 11, 2023 21:18:06 GMT
Hmm ... so the economic prosperity and security and relative political influence we enjoyed as part of the EU and have now sacrificed was just a "trendy viewpoint". Says it all really. I just think that when all major parties hold very similar views and/or policies which are not shared by a very significant proportion of the population they are asking to get their *rses kicked. Which is what happened. The whole country got its arse kicked unfortunately. Hope it was worth it for the 'lols'. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:21:18 GMT
Some might consider RUK or stand as OMRLP. The only thing holding me back from the latter choice is that I'm not fond of dressing up in weird costumes, and even if I did, what to choose? The hat seems to be the main thing. Maybe a Davy Crockett hat? Well there is obviously different types of protest and I perhaps should have added in "attention seeking candidates*"  Count Binface was fairly original but given a lot of people like dogs then maybe dress as a dog - I reckon your more of a British bulldog type than a French Poodle or ones of those lapdog breeds but depends who you hope might vote for you (eg being a lapdog might make you quite popular with LDEM types ) Anyway, RUK/Green are 'protest votes' for a clear 'protest reason' (immigration/green stuff). One good thing (IMO) about FPTP is that your vote is never 'wasted' (as the PR fanatics seem to think). The most successful party in UK in modern times was UKIP (IMO). Pretty much a 'single issue' party that at max had 2 MPs yet managed to get its 'single issue' DONE. Hence, why I would consider a 'protest vote' as being a worthwhile vote noting I don't actually want RUK to win any/many MPs - just for the larger parties to take notice (and same applies for Greens). * Most MPs are "attention seeking" and quite a few seem to be "having a laugh". OMRLP do take it to a different level though. IMO then RUK and Green are a bit different and are quite genuine about the 'protest' causes they are making. 🤣 Here's a quote about OMRLP from Wikipedia "Despite its satirical nature, some of the things that have featured in Loony manifestos have actually become law, such as "passports for pets", abolition of dog licences and all-day pub openings" As on past form some of their policies may get adopted, here's a link to their 'manicfesto' for the upcoming by elections. One that seems a really good idea is 'Incorporate Income Tax into the National Lottery so at least you stand a chance of winning your money back'. They now have a branch at Eton College so look forward to a future Loony PM. 👍😁 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:31:45 GMT
If we ever did get a form of PR for GEs (highly unlikely in my lifetime IMO) The chances certainly aren't improved by all the people who say they support electoral reform, but carry on voting for parties that are opposed - and try to insist that everyone else should too. I think LibDems are in favour aren't they? I've voted for them on occasion for that reason. Not recently though because getting out of the EU took priority for me. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:35:49 GMT
Another Brexit benefit! They just keep coming. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 11, 2023 21:37:58 GMT
Hmm ... so the economic prosperity and security and relative political influence we enjoyed as part of the EU and have now sacrificed was just a "trendy viewpoint". Says it all really. I just think that when all major parties hold very similar views and/or policies which are not shared by a very significant proportion of the population they are asking to get their *rses kicked. Which is what happened. Regret on leaving/desire to rejoin the EU now seems to be shared by a pretty significant part of the population and we all know who are going to get their arses kicked next time. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 11, 2023 21:40:41 GMT
Richard Tice (RUK) is quite right to call it a "shambolic farce" and mock CON HMG for their failure to get Rwanda scheme started* but does Kinnock realise that aping RUK is probably not that smart a move given LAB are almost certainly going to have an OM after GE'24? "the Rwanda plan has thus far failed to begin implementation, Kinnock said the government had sent more home secretaries to Rwanda than asylum seekers"
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2023/jul/11/more-home-secretaries-in-rwanda-than-asylum-seekers-tories-criticised-on-immigration-bill-video#Yeah, like "no sh1t Sherlock" (ie we know) and when LAB take over and do f-all** to deal with illegal immigration then folks might start to look for 'Alternative for UK'. So Kinnock can make some cheap political point scoring while he can as that certainly ups the awareness of the issue and the failure of CON HMG to deal with it, but someone with more intelligence might realise that LAB are going to inherit whatever CON have fail to do and then folks will be questioning WTF is LAB doing to deal with the issue. Then when CON have failed and LAB have failed... then who do we turn to? What is the 'Alternative for UK'? * Braverman was an idiot to say anyone coming in illegally on a small boat from a specific date (in the past) would be eligible for processing in Rwanda as that 'legality' has to go through the UK courts. However, folks are aware that we left the EU, that Parliament is sovereign and UK courts 'judge' on UK law. So "get the f-ck on with it" and change the law if the law needs changing. If likes of Theresa May and Tobias Ellwood have an issue then they lose the whip - simples. If Rishi can't get this sorted before GE'24 then more folks are going to vote for RUK (and whilst some short-termist, low intelligence, LAB MPs might think that is great then you "reap what you sow" and "what goes around, comes around" when LAB take over) ** Cooper is wisely letting Kinnock be the 'useful idiot' as RUK are likely to take VI from CON but WTF is she going to do about illegal immigration once France say "non" to returns and folks start to realise LAB has absolutely no plan whatsoever to deal with illegal immigration. Perhaps look to countries in continental Europe to see which way gen.pub swing when the 'liberal-luvvy' types fail. Your core problem, Trevor, is that the Tory scheme is unworkable and would not reduce "illegal" migration or asylum numbers. Asking whether Lab have a workable plan either (of course not!) If fair enough, but implying a plan that is so bad it has yet to be implemented, is unlikely to ever be implanted, and wouldn't work to appreciably reduce numbers even if it could be implanted; is the solution, is rather clutching at paper straws. It literally, physically pains my eyes and brain trying to read Trevor's fevered, adolescent prose. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 21:52:01 GMT
I'm sure that the Birmingham 6 and the Guildford 4 wouldn't have agreed with you. Once you have hanged someone for a crime they did not commit you cannot bring them back to life. Those were just two of the big miscarriages of justice in that time period. Sorry, I've clearly obfuscated my point too much. After the war the London Treaty, which was signed in 1949, set up the Council of Europe. One of its stunning achievements was to get the whole of Europe to sign up to agreeing to abolish capital punishment. Obviously it was heavily influenced by the time, being so near to war.
And now that we all agree captial punishment is bad, that decision is locked into the GFA. I fully concur that 'once you have hanged someone for a crime they did not commit you cannot bring them back to life.' And that is my primary objection to capital punishment. But neither the Birmingham Six nor the Guilford Four were executed.
A modern reintroduction could include safeguards such as DNA evidence being an absolute requirement. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 22:03:24 GMT
On the other hand, assuming that the UK remains relatively habitable as the climate catastrophe unfolds, we should expect to take in climate refugees, even if that means controls on the reproduction of people who're already here.
I agreed with most of the rest of your post but really?? You'd seriously prioritise taking refugees over the right of existing citizens to have children! I'm flabbergasted. Good luck getting that policy through democratically. Or perhaps you're anticipating a dictatorship following a revolution? I suppose we'd need loads of refugees to police the restive native population? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 11, 2023 22:27:51 GMT
On the other hand, assuming that the UK remains relatively habitable as the climate catastrophe unfolds, we should expect to take in climate refugees, even if that means controls on the reproduction of people who're already here.
I agreed with most of the rest of your post but really?? You'd seriously prioritise taking refugees over the right of existing citizens to have children! I'm flabbergasted. Good luck getting that policy through democratically. Or perhaps you're anticipating a dictatorship following a revolution? I suppose we'd need loads of refugees to police the restive native population? I'm presuming that the poster you are replying to "has controlled his own reproduction" just as he suggests others must do too in time. I'm presuming also there will be a Reproduction Control and Monitoring Unit who will decide numbers and the finer detail. Paragons of progeny control like this poster will no doubt be a key developer of overall reproduction policy. Who it applies to, the enforcement regime, penalties for exceeding limits etc I have say that I'm always a little suspicious of people who advocate reproduction control for other people. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 11, 2023 22:34:04 GMT
I just think that when all major parties hold very similar views and/or policies which are not shared by a very significant proportion of the population they are asking to get their *rses kicked. Which is what happened. Regret on leaving/desire to rejoin the EU now seems to be shared by a pretty significant part of the population and we all know who are going to get their arses kicked next time. You miss the point entirely. That position is shared by some parties. The problem arises when they all agree on something that a big proportion of the population doesn't. Brexit was just one example. There are plenty of others. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 11, 2023 22:36:37 GMT
I agreed with most of the rest of your post but really?? You'd seriously prioritise taking refugees over the right of existing citizens to have children! I'm flabbergasted. Good luck getting that policy through democratically. Or perhaps you're anticipating a dictatorship following a revolution? I suppose we'd need loads of refugees to police the restive native population? I'm presuming that the poster you are replying to "has controlled his own reproduction" just as he suggests others must do too in time. I'm presuming also there will be a Reproduction Control and Monitoring Unit who will decide numbers and the finer detail. Paragons of progeny control like this poster will no doubt be a key developer of overall reproduction policy. Who it applies to, the enforcement regime, penalties for exceeding limits etc I have say that I'm always a little suspicious of people who advocate reproduction control for other people. I don't understand the concern about population, it's all a bit 20th century. It's now pretty well accepted I think that fertility levels are plummeting in most of the world with even China worrying about how it's going to support an ageing population and India peaking. As I understand it within a few decades the only continent continuing population growth will be Africa and even there it will slow. Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 11, 2023 22:44:59 GMT
Regret on leaving/desire to rejoin the EU now seems to be shared by a pretty significant part of the population and we all know who are going to get their arses kicked next time. You miss the point entirely. That position is shared by some parties. The problem arises when they all agree on something that a big proportion of the population doesn't. Brexit was just one example. There are plenty of others. Not many people gave the EU much thought before Cameron's genius idea to hold a referendum, it was just a fact of life and as we've discussed here many times people voted the way they did for myriad often incompatible reasons not because they disagreed with some supposed cosy political consensus. What you're referencing is the worn out old trope of the supposed 'silent (always right wing of course) majority'. Currently if you add up voting intention for Labour, LD and Green we've got ourselves a bit of a clear progressive majority I'd have said. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 11, 2023 22:50:52 GMT
"alec said:
Okinawa Update: as previous, there has been growing concern about what's going on with covid in Okinawa, Japan, where hospitalisation rates are through the roof, and worse than at any time during the pandemic."
Just a correction on that as I think you are being unintentionally misleading.
Hospitalization in Okinawa is high but it isn't true that hospitalization throughout Japan is the worst ever or any where near it.
There are around 1000 hospitalized in Okinawa but in the rest of Japan hospitalization rates are less than 10% of the peak,given that deaths from covid in Japan are around 15% of the average per million in Europe it would be totally alarmist to portray this as on the same scale.
The Japanese health authorities downgraded their categorisation of covid to akin to flu in May and daily updates are no longer provided.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 11, 2023 22:57:43 GMT
pjw1961Something our outgoing Tory regime sneaked through £75 a year for what amounts for most people as two or three collections. Fortunately we live next to woodlands so the grass cuttings can be disposed of in an environmentally way by turfing them out the back gate.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Jul 11, 2023 23:23:37 GMT
Regret on leaving/desire to rejoin the EU now seems to be shared by a pretty significant part of the population and we all know who are going to get their arses kicked next time. You miss the point entirely. That position is shared by some parties. The problem arises when they all agree on something that a big proportion of the population doesn't. Brexit was just one example. There are plenty of others. Yeah, but just remember that many of this 'big proportion of the population' are now dead. They shafted the country and then popped their clogs. Very few young people support brexit. Some leavers now see sense and regret it. It is a falling percentage who think brexit was good, just done badly, but they can't offer anything constructive to fix it -- apart from blame immigrants.
Brexit is dying.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 12, 2023 5:01:25 GMT
Just to break the UKPR2 bubble and relate a tale of 'real politics'. I have had 115 messages today (since 12.15) on the Braintree Labour whatsapp group concerning the single most important political event of the day - namely the Conservative administration of Braintree DC's decision to impose charges for the kerbside collection of green garden waste. It has spawned a petition on change.org, a catchy name (Tory Bin Tax) and a somewhat tetchy row between some Labour members who take different views on the subject. Now that's real grass roots politics |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 6:08:39 GMT
Why right wing politicians lie and why they don't really care when they are found to be lying. This relates to the bogus ROC Biden investigation but it applies equally here. The right are past masters ably assisted by their propaganda mouthpieces at promoting a false narrative in support of for example Brexit, immigration policies and the greed led international banking crisis. It doesn't matter if these lies are fact checked it's the publication of the lies to a gullible voter base that's the essential factor. The Tories and the various iterations of Faragist xenophobia populists have always been far better than progressives at lying the rest of us are hampered by being chained to the anchor of facts. youtu.be/PaDgh0yWY3o |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 6:15:19 GMT
Richard Tice (RUK) is quite right to call it a "shambolic farce" and mock CON HMG for their failure to get Rwanda scheme started* It will be interesting to see if the house of lords continues its refusal to pass the bill. If it does not, then it at least should be the death knell for the Lords. A chamber which simply caves in to the commons and refuses to use the legal powers it has to delay legislation on an issue it feels deeply about, should not exist. A good question Trevor, but you are missing that this can only ever be a stop gap solution. If everything went as the government wishes, it will not stop illegal immigration to the UK. There are far more people to send than Rwanda has agreed to take and they will keep coming. Some of these people will come to a sticky end, Rwanda is not a safe place and does not recognise grounds for assylum considered legitimate in the UK. But eventually as the world situation worsens, Rwanda is going to refuse to keep taking migrants anyway. Its more likely to end up Rwandans becoming refugees to the UK (again). The real problem here is international law which requires us to take refugees. There are already hundreds of millions of people who would qualify if they were allowed to claim. If global warming gets going seriously, this will rise to billions. The only solutions ultimately are either to change those conventions to take away the right to assylum, or make conditions in those countries livable. At the moment the UK is unable to do the former because it would cause a cascade of broken international commitments very harmful to the UK, especially outside of the EU. It is unable to do the latter because, well, in a lot of cases its on the side of chaos creating difficulties abroad. Foreign policy is often to destabilise regimes we dont like and therefore create refugees! Very many of our immigrants are from countries where we decided to intervene in their affairs. Gee, the falsehoods are strong in this statement! The fundamental brexit lie was that EU membership restricted Uk sovereignty. Its obvious it did not, because we left it. But the reason the 400 conservative MPs have not done whatever they like to boat people is that the UK is bound by many international agreements which have nothing at all to do with the EU. In fact mant EU rules are simply framed to comply with those same international rules which still apply to the UK. In the question of immigration more generally, brexit has done nothing to stop it, and a number of things to make it worse. The great majority of immigrants to the Uk are fully welcomed by the government. Always have been. You need to adress this contradiction at the heart of their policy, that refugees are not the immigration problem, there are hardly any of them. Its the millions of people coming here every year by invitaion which are causing the fundamental immigration problem, and government has done not a thing to prevent them. Brexit made the illegals problem worse by ending mutual agreements with France to keep them out of the UK. The question Trevor is when will the conservative government you support end the immigration to the Uk which is encourages? Noting of course that it sees this immigration as bringing wealth to the UK and solving other problems like a chronic shortage of nurses and doctors, which has its roots in another of their policies to underpay a lot of government employees, like nurses and doctors, teachers, and maintain pressure to push down lower end wages compared to upper end. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 6:17:47 GMT
What does it say about the state of the modern Conservative Party that in relation to its current immigration policy, Theresa "Hostile Environment" May is now its bleeding heart? What it probably illustrates is the extent to which government officials in office lie about their real views on very many issues. An irony when you consider what just happened to Johnson. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 6:37:58 GMT
neiljIndeed we all need to turn over a new leaf!
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Post by alec on Jul 12, 2023 6:39:18 GMT
pjw1961 - here in Co Durham, in deepest Northern Ireland, we've always paid for green waste collections. This has just recently been taken over by DCC from a charity company that set the system up many years ago. Back in the 1990s there was talk of revolution when the council wanted to introduce wheelie bins, with two years of angry debate before the change happened. Now households have two, possibly three wheelie bins, and everyone thinks it's great. We humans are strange beasts, bridling at any talk of change, even when those changes are patently better than what has gone before.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 12, 2023 6:41:18 GMT
"Bank of England warns rising interest rates causing stress among indebted firms and consumers – business live"
Really, strike me down with a feather I would never have guessed.
We're lucky to have these economic geniuses at the helm otherwise who would state the blindingly fucking obvious.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 6:43:43 GMT
Without immigration the population of most western countries would be falling at in some cases quite an alarming rate. A good point. The UK wouldnt need any of the millions of immigrants government is encouraging if it had more births here. But this raises the question that most western government are fixated on the idea that (slowly) rising population sizes are essential. As you say this can only be prevented by increasing immigration, which seems to be a policy many voters deeply oppose. The ridiculous situation where conservatives supported brexit to enable a reduction in the rate of immigration, when they actually are encouraging immigration! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 6:47:22 GMT
So what of the prospects of political parties who supported or enabled brexit, such as labour? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 12, 2023 7:12:25 GMT
The case of the BBC presenter seems to be slipping into another example of gay people behaving in socially unusual but consensual ways, and then being attacked for living their lives in a way society has imposed upon them.
Complainant 1 didnt complain, but his (apparently his) parents do not approve of his lifestyle and so made complaints. Sounds like they are gay bashing. Or at least trying to prevent their now adult offspring living his life as he wishes. Classic abusive parents.
Complainant 2 threatened to go public with the presenters identity and this was met with abusive threats back. Gee, what a surprise. Who wouldnt?
Anyone who wants to can download grindr and other social apps, to arrange casual gay sex, picture swaps, or whatever the hell they fancy. And if you go and look theres plenty of old-young matching going on. Or indeed people saying they expressly only want similar age meets. Wonder how many journalists are now lurking seeking stories.
And then we have the problem that most child porn is made by children, being pictures of themselves they freely distribute. That people become sexually aware maybe aged 10-12, yet are legally forbidden to join in this stuff until 18. Which was more credible when I was young and facts were harder to find, but falls completely apart when every 16 year old knows exactly how to do this.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 7:28:25 GMT
Not many people gave the EU much thought before Cameron's genius idea to hold a referendum, it was just a fact of life It seems to me that's the way you like it. Basil Fawltyesque-Don't mention the EU. I imagine you , on June 23 2016, going out to give your car a good thrashing .  |
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