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Post by shevii on Jul 9, 2023 13:10:10 GMT
I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future. Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't. If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s) Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well?
It's quite hard to know which way the Tories will swing next but I suspect it will be further right because they don't have the realists in their party any more, but also because of the threat from Reform. Even if some of this Reform opinion polling is just anti Labour voters who are currently anti Tory as well it's inevitable that the Tories will view the reform vote as needing to move rightwards. Also the movers and shakers are definitely of a more right wing persuasion and don't seem to have learned any lessons from the Liz Truss stint. 2029 is hard to see the Tories sorting themselves out by then but if, as I believe, Starmer's Labour does not have any of the answers, then the radical/extreme on both sides of the political spectrum will become more popular while "soft" Tories will continue to vote Labour. Probably a Labour government with the lowest number of voters in modern times. The rise of the radical/extreme parties is not hard to understand because living standards in UK/Europe have been flat or going backwards since 2008 and probably before this and the urgency of things like the climate crisis have passed politicians by. Crystal ball is silly so far out but I have little doubt that the climate crisis will be well and truly upon us at least in terms of the issues that are bread and butter like food security/prices and mass displacement of people (which of course will be a boost to the far right). This is why the Labour offering is so depressing because they're just attempting to maintain an economic model that has now reached its sell by date. Growth is no longer the answer to making people better off where once it had been. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2023 13:30:09 GMT
I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future. Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't. If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s) Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well?
It's quite hard to know which way the Tories will swing next but I suspect it will be further right because they don't have the realists in their party any more, but also because of the threat from Reform. Even if some of this Reform opinion polling is just anti Labour voters who are currently anti Tory as well it's inevitable that the Tories will view the reform vote as needing to move rightwards. Also the movers and shakers are definitely of a more right wing persuasion and don't seem to have learned any lessons from the Liz Truss stint. 2029 is hard to see the Tories sorting themselves out by then but if, as I believe, Starmer's Labour does not have any of the answers, then the radical/extreme on both sides of the political spectrum will become more popular while "soft" Tories will continue to vote Labour. Probably a Labour government with the lowest number of voters in modern times. The rise of the radical/extreme parties is not hard to understand because living standards in UK/Europe have been flat or going backwards since 2008 and probably before this and the urgency of things like the climate crisis have passed politicians by. Crystal ball is silly so far out but I have little doubt that the climate crisis will be well and truly upon us at least in terms of the issues that are bread and butter like food security/prices and mass displacement of people (which of course will be a boost to the far right). This is why the Labour offering is so depressing because they're just attempting to maintain an economic model that has now reached its sell by date. Growth is no longer the answer to making people better off where once it had been. A thoughtful post with which I have considerable agreement. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 9, 2023 13:34:54 GMT
Warning Tory minister humanity vacuum ahead. Feltham young offenders institute which contains young people who have actually committed a crime has murals on the walls, but apparently young children traumatised by a situation they had no control of don't deserve the same basic level of consideration. The lowest of the low. youtu.be/-m-BiBmY4R8 |
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Post by James E on Jul 9, 2023 14:15:04 GMT
FM - re ''What definitely has the potential to be hilarious  (as I suggested yesterday) is the choice Tory members (probably the least well equipped group in the UK to judge a person’s suitability to become party leader) make for next Party leader.'' I agree but after 2 terms in opposition the desire to get elected takes over. So Cameron beats Davis and for Labour, who have similar membership/voter disconnects, Starmer takes over from Corbyn. My expectation would be for the Tories, should they as seem most likely lose, elect the most right wing leader twice but for the person with a chance of victory (or at least losing with dignity) to take over after a third GE defeat. NB) I say twice but I guess could be more, I am thinking for 2 GEs more really. Interesting to note YouGov's most recent table for 'Most Popular Conservative Politician'. yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/allThere's a distinctly "has-been" look to the Top 20 with 5 of them over 80, and one who is no longer even alive. Only 2 of the top 10 are still in Parliament, these being Sunak himself (No 1) and Theresa May at No 5. Ben Wallace at No 11 is the highest of any sitting MP other than May and Sunak, and he's closely followed by Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Morduant. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 9, 2023 14:40:44 GMT
I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future. Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't. If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s) Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well?
because they don't have the realists in their party any more, but also because of the threat from Reform. Even if some of this Reform opinion polling is just anti Labour voters who are currently anti Tory as well it's inevitable that the Tories will view the reform vote as needing to move rightwards. Also the movers and shakers are definitely of a more right wing persuasion and don't seem to have learned any lessons from the Liz Truss stint. 2029 is hard to see the Tories sorting themselves out by then but if, as I believe, Starmer's Labour does not have any of the answers, then the radical/extreme on both sides of the political spectrum will become more popular while "soft" Tories will continue to vote Labour. Probably a Labour government with the lowest number of voters in modern times.
The rise of the radical/extreme parties is not hard to understand because living standards in UK/Europe have been flat or going backwards since 2008 and probably before this and the urgency of things like the climate crisis have passed politicians by. Crystal ball is silly so far out but I have little doubt that the climate crisis will be well and truly upon us at least in terms of the issues that are bread and butter like food security/prices and mass displacement of people (which of course will be a boost to the far right).This is why the Labour offering is so depressing because they're just attempting to maintain an economic model that has now reached its sell by date. Growth is no longer the answer to making people better off where once it had been. Almost certainly more socially conservative* and if you (and jimjam) glance across at rEurope you'll note that is quite popular and I'd agree it's "not hard to understand" why - although I expect we do disagree on some of the details of what needs to change but you've picked one "trend" that is pretty much nailed on to create appeal for different political Alternatives for Germany/France/Spain/etc.. maybe UK? * EG Badenoch who is also more 'RoC' on the Economic axis. On both axis I think she will keep Starmer from drifting back to the Left/Libertarian (noting colin's "raving Trot" comment) but I'm not blind to the risk that takes UK too far to the right if/when Starmer-LAB "maintain(ing) an economic model that has now reached its sell by date" makes England/UK look for an Alternative (possibly skipping the 'give greens a go' step that Germany is trying) |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 9, 2023 14:57:59 GMT
I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future. Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy....
* "The Dutch farmers’ party victory is a warning to the green movement"unherd.com/thepost/the-dutch-farmers-party-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-green-movement/Yes continental coalition government is a strange beast to us. It was immigration which collapsed Rutte's government. -the most densely populated country in Europe.The farmers party cow farting thing was just another straw though their leader could now become a significant player there ! Yes-lots of change in European politics. All interesting stuff. But indicative of voter concerns I think in the main. Afraid I have written Con off next time. I think Sunak's managerialism just isnt enough for the circumstances -and his political antennae are not really up to it. He isn't good at interviews on the hoof. Actually I think it is time for a change. I know Starmer might be a raving Trot in disguise, but don't really think so. There will be a degree of continuity-but fresh ideas. And Con really need to decide what they want to be. 'BoerBurgerBeweging' perhaps benefitting from being in the right place at the right time (eg Geert Wilders as a 'protest' got a bit dull)? Italy briefly had 5Star who were anti-establishment but a bit wishy-washy, then they chose Meloni who certainly isn't wishy-washy. Unusually for Italy she's still popular more than a week after being elected. That should concern some people! Rishi is a bit dull but after Boris and the Truss error I don't mind a bit of dull managerialism - if he was getting stuff done. He's held back by a bunch of anchors (like Shapps) and his timing is unfortunate but 'tis was it is'. Had Boris not been so.. well.. Boris... then the combination of 'Boosterism' Chairman and detail-boring Rishi as CEO might have worked but 'events' since GE'19 were not what I expected when I voted for Boris in 2019 and CON in GE'19. I agree it is (was) time for a change but I don't see Starmer offering change (see reply to shevii ) or fresh ideas*. Corbyn offered change but, credit to Starmer, he's purged that wing. There seems to be a very annoying 'Fear of failure' in both current versions of CON and LAB which means neither party is keen to make changes. I don't know how long that will last but if neither CON or LAB are going to offer change (and LDEM are only interested in PR and some red briefcases) then at some point, someone is likely to emerge that will offer change - I look to the continent for the direction of travel that might take (and that should concern some people - it concerns me!). * I don't believe he's saving his great ideas until GE'24 manifesto for fear CON steal them. 'Occam's razor' suggest any LAB leader would win GE'24 and polling enables Starmer to avoid any policy. Maybe once in power he wastes time with devolution stuff, HoL reform and things few people care about. Other than that I see 'Continuity CON' and risk of slipping back to the Old (Blair-Cameron) Model of Tory as Rishi has failed to push the New Model as far or as fast as he might have under different circumstances. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 9, 2023 15:18:31 GMT
Interesting to note YouGov's most recent table for 'Most Popular Conservative Politician'. yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/allThere's a distinctly "has-been" look to the Top 20 with 5 of them over 80, and one who is no longer even alive. Only 2 of the top 10 are still in Parliament, these being Sunak himself (No 1) and Theresa May at No 5. Ben Wallace at No 11 is the highest of any sitting MP other than May and Sunak, and he's closely followed by Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Morduant. Do you care to comment on the LAB list? yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/labour-politicians/allStarmer only 3rd with Rayner and Cooper just inside top10. Corbyn 1st, Burnham 2nd, Khan 4th might concern Starmer. Dennis Skinner 9th is 91 and President of the Socialist Campaign Group. YG don't do a popularity table for LDEM*. Might have struggled to even to get to 20 that people had heard of  * Davey is in 'Others' at 16th (behind some former LDEM leaders - even Clegg!) Daisy Cooper beats Davey but #1 is Farage yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/other-uk-public-figuresNB Quite happy to agree with anyone else who thinks that YG's popularity polling isn't that useful and just FWIW then I'm not sure why they didn't include Thatcher in the CON list (she'd have made #1) yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Margaret_Thatcher |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 9, 2023 15:33:38 GMT
I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future. Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't. If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s) Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well?
* "The Dutch farmers’ party victory is a warning to the green movement"unherd.com/thepost/the-dutch-farmers-party-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-green-movement/Yes continental coalition government is a strange beast to us. It was immigration which collapsed Rutte's government. -the most densely populated country in Europe.The farmers party cow farting thing was just another straw though their leader could now become a significant player there ! Yes-lots of change in European politics. All interesting stuff. But indicative of voter concerns I think in the main. Afraid I have written Con off next time. I think Sunak's managerialism just isnt enough for the circumstances -and his political antennae are not really up to it. He isn't good at interviews on the hoof. Actually I think it is time for a change. I know Starmer might be a raving Trot in disguise, but don't really think so. There will be a degree of continuity-but fresh ideas. And Con really need to decide what they want to be. Rutte deliberately blew up the coalition by refusing to budge on a point he probably doesn't really agree with and knew wouldn't come into force (a delay on children of accepted refugees being allowed to follow on immediately). The reason he did this is probably so he can make a less restrained future come back where he can point to this as an example of him being tough on immigration. He's been in power since 2010 in various configurations. Maybe he just needed a break. Re. Protest parties in the Netherlands, this is nothing new, I was living in the Netherlands when Pim Fortyn (who was the right wing enfant terrible of his day) was shot over two decades ago. Front National success in France is also hardly a new phenomenon, I'm sure we all remember the 2002 presidential election. As for the Afd in Germany it's largely, if not exclusively, an Ossi phenomenon and there's a bit I could say on the old GDR states. Suffice it to say that over thirty years since unification it's still in many ways a different country and I've come to the conclusion that unification should never have occurred but that's a whole other thing. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 9, 2023 15:37:42 GMT
I've been increasingly struck by the similarities in the failings of the medical community over covid and the last great pandemic, that of Aids in the 1980s and 90s. As now, many doctors and those in senior positions within the medical establishment shunned the developing scientific research and looked upon AIDS as something not relevant, restricted to certain types, and refused to recogise many of the results. Many doctors participated in the 'gay plague' myth making, and subsequent fearmongering when the victims were treated as outcasts responsible for their own suffering, rather than victims needing help. It took the intervention of figures like Elizabeth Taylor and Lady Di to shake up the medical establishments and shame those individuals into action. not sure thats right. Diana has been mythologised, but what i recollect is the government being forced to treat drug users and gays seriously as real people, allowing them treatment instead of prosecution because they understood that while it might start with just these groups, it would spread throughout the population. But also with hiv the government did the exact opposite to covid. It damped down scaremongering and tried to be realistic. Whereas the covid action from start to finish deliberately exaggerated risk to encourage comliance with restrictions. Well they were wrong. Covid was never the risk it was claimed. This still has not been admitted. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 9, 2023 15:39:59 GMT
Emphasises the point about how far we have fallen U.K. 10 year Bond Yield 4.65% Greece 10 year Bond Yield 3.99% Greece can borrow money in the international money markets cheaper than we can thats because last time round greece had the problem. This time round britain has brexit. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 9, 2023 15:49:24 GMT
Of course the financial sector is massively important to the UK, and so being told to adopt the Euro would be of enormous consequence to us. the pound grows weaker every day. And i dont just mean lower in valuation, simply less important. There will come a pojnt we will be better off using euros. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2023 15:57:43 GMT
Rutte deliberately blew up the coalition by refusing to budge on a point he probably doesn't really agree with and knew wouldn't come into force (a delay on children of accepted refugees being allowed to follow on immediately). The reason he did this is probably so he can make a less restrained future come back where he can point to this as an example of him being tough on immigration. He's been in power since 2010 in various configurations. Maybe he just needed a break. Re. Protest parties in the Netherlands, this is nothing new, I was living in the Netherlands when Pim Fortyn (who was the right wing enfant terrible of his day) was shot over two decades ago. Front National success in France is also hardly a new phenomenon, I'm sure we all remember the 2002 presidential election. Asylum seekers forced to sleep outdoors in squalid conditions near an overcrowded reception centre in a country with 518 people per square kilometre seems like an issue to me. I'm sure Rutte believed it was too. The population of Netherlands has passed 17.5 million, having risen by a third in the past 50 years, and, according to some projections, could reach 18.8 million by 2030. Times reports that :- "House building, meanwhile, is struggling to keep pace, with shortages most acute in Amsterdam and nearby Rotterdam and the Hague.......Part of the blame for the housing shortage is down to skills shortages and other familiar obstacles to construction familiar across the continent. But the industry has also been hit by a number of Supreme Court rulings in cases brought by environmentalists. These have obliged Dutch authorities to attempt to cut emissions of nitrogen, a big contributor to global warming. The result, the industry claims, has been the cancellation or postponement of plans for thousands of building projects. It has also become more difficult to build roads to alleviate congestion on an already busy network." So the clash between the Green Agenda and Economic fundamentals in Holland was not restricted to the crazy proposal to half livestock numbers in the world’s second largest food exporter with the world’s densest population of livestock. And as for BBB, Times says :- "the latest Ipsos survey, carried out a week before the government fell, predicted it would win 23 of the 150 seats in the chamber compared with 28 for Rutte’s conservative VVD. Her ( Van der Plas) party has already become the largest in the senate, the less powerful upper house, after winning elections in May." So the issues of unregulated immigration and climate change policy are very much at the centre of things in the Netherlands. And have caused dramatic political change. On the subject of AfD in Germany unregulated immigration and climate change are 3rd and 4th in a poll of "worrying issues" . Given that number one worrying issue was " the actions of government and politicians" -the rise of AfD in the polls is not to be ignored :- www.dw.com/en/poll-far-right-afd-is-germanys-second-strongest-party/a-66154675I think AfD are generally unsupportive of Ukraine and assistance to it So this recent protest by the far left in Germany :- www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraineleaves me wondering how secure German support for NATO policy on Ukraine might be in the future. I guess US cluster bombs are not going to help . |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 9, 2023 16:00:37 GMT
Glad to see both the main opposition party and UK government opposing the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine , while war criminal Putin's invaders routinely use these barbaric weapons and it's understandable that Ukraine wishes to be able to retaliate it's a mistake. Cluster munitions are an effective alternative to precision weapons against armour however while the precision weapon normally hits or misses the desired target it's normally destroyed by the process. With cluster munitions a percentage of the bomblets routinely fail to explode in use but remain a threat to individuals for years afterwards. It's estimated that a staggering 98% of deaths from cluster munitions occur after the weapon has been used as a result of accidental contacts in the ensuing years. The bottom line is the us has stockpiles of cluster munitions but is running out of precision ones. So its either give them cluster or nothing. You prefer ukraine surrender? Its probably true the us a year ago could have started an emergency manufacturing program which might have enabled them to match demand, but they have a much weaker industrial base than ww2 and it would have been very very expensive. Not just account book expensive where they hand over stock but real cash expensive. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 9, 2023 16:04:11 GMT
Rutte deliberately blew up the coalition by refusing to budge on a point he probably doesn't really agree with and knew wouldn't come into force (a delay on children of accepted refugees being allowed to follow on immediately). The reason he did this is probably so he can make a less restrained future come back where he can point to this as an example of him being tough on immigration. He's been in power since 2010 in various configurations. Maybe he just needed a break. Re. Protest parties in the Netherlands, this is nothing new, I was living in the Netherlands when Pim Fortyn (who was the right wing enfant terrible of his day) was shot over two decades ago. Front National success in France is also hardly a new phenomenon, I'm sure we all remember the 2002 presidential election. Asylum seekers forced to sleep outdoors in squalid conditions near an overcrowded reception centre in a country with 518 people per square kilometre seems like an issue to me. I'm sure Rutte believed it was too. The population of Netherlands has passed 17.5 million, having risen by a third in the past 50 years, and, according to some projections, could reach 18.8 million by 2030. Times reports that :- "House building, meanwhile, is struggling to keep pace, with shortages most acute in Amsterdam and nearby Rotterdam and the Hague.......Part of the blame for the housing shortage is down to skills shortages and other familiar obstacles to construction familiar across the continent. But the industry has also been hit by a number of Supreme Court rulings in cases brought by environmentalists. These have obliged Dutch authorities to attempt to cut emissions of nitrogen, a big contributor to global warming. The result, the industry claims, has been the cancellation or postponement of plans for thousands of building projects. It has also become more difficult to build roads to alleviate congestion on an already busy network." So the clash between the Green Agenda and Economic fundamentals in Holland was not restricted to the crazy proposal to half livestock numbers in the world’s second largest food exporter with the world’s densest population of livestock. And as for BBB, Times says :- "the latest Ipsos survey, carried out a week before the government fell, predicted it would win 23 of the 150 seats in the chamber compared with 28 for Rutte’s conservative VVD. Her ( Van der Plas) party has already become the largest in the senate, the less powerful upper house, after winning elections in May." So the issues of unregulated immigration and climate change policy are very much at the centre of things in the Netherlands. And have caused dramatic political change. The linked article explains it well. It's got little to do with the asylum system really which just needs better organisation but is coping. Rutte deliberately extracted his VVD party from a coalition failing to handle the more toxic nitrogen in farming issue and is leaving the other parties to carry the can for that, parties that are doing worse in the polls than the VVD and that he doesn't want to drag down his own party: www.sueddeutsche.de/meinung/niederlande-regierung-rutte-1.6010096 |
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Post by alec on Jul 9, 2023 16:06:55 GMT
Told you that bazball was brilliant, didn't I?
More seriously, it's very frustrating that England are challenging the best test team in the world, but if they could only weedle out the silly mistakes with the bat and the dropped catches, it's by no means a stretch of the imagination to think that they could have been 3-0 up themselves by now.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 9, 2023 16:19:57 GMT
Rutte deliberately blew up the coalition by refusing to budge on a point he probably doesn't really agree with and knew wouldn't come into force (a delay on children of accepted refugees being allowed to follow on immediately). The reason he did this is probably so he can make a less restrained future come back where he can point to this as an example of him being tough on immigration. He's been in power since 2010 in various configurations. Maybe he just needed a break. Re. Protest parties in the Netherlands, this is nothing new, I was living in the Netherlands when Pim Fortyn (who was the right wing enfant terrible of his day) was shot over two decades ago. Front National success in France is also hardly a new phenomenon, I'm sure we all remember the 2002 presidential election. Asylum seekers forced to sleep outdoors in squalid conditions near an overcrowded reception centre in a country with 518 people per square kilometre seems like an issue to me. I'm sure Rutte believed it was too. The population of Netherlands has passed 17.5 million, having risen by a third in the past 50 years, and, according to some projections, could reach 18.8 million by 2030. Times reports that :- "House building, meanwhile, is struggling to keep pace, with shortages most acute in Amsterdam and nearby Rotterdam and the Hague.......Part of the blame for the housing shortage is down to skills shortages and other familiar obstacles to construction familiar across the continent. But the industry has also been hit by a number of Supreme Court rulings in cases brought by environmentalists. These have obliged Dutch authorities to attempt to cut emissions of nitrogen, a big contributor to global warming. The result, the industry claims, has been the cancellation or postponement of plans for thousands of building projects. It has also become more difficult to build roads to alleviate congestion on an already busy network." So the clash between the Green Agenda and Economic fundamentals in Holland was not restricted to the crazy proposal to half livestock numbers in the world’s second largest food exporter with the world’s densest population of livestock. And as for BBB, Times says :- "the latest Ipsos survey, carried out a week before the government fell, predicted it would win 23 of the 150 seats in the chamber compared with 28 for Rutte’s conservative VVD. Her ( Van der Plas) party has already become the largest in the senate, the less powerful upper house, after winning elections in May." So the issues of unregulated immigration and climate change policy are very much at the centre of things in the Netherlands. And have caused dramatic political change. On the subject of AfD in Germany unregulated immigration and climate change are 3rd and 4th in a poll of "worrying issues" . Given that number one worrying issue was " the actions of government and politicians" -the rise of AfD in the polls is not to be ignored :- www.dw.com/en/poll-far-right-afd-is-germanys-second-strongest-party/a-66154675I think AfD are generally unsupportive of Ukraine and assistance to it So this recent protest by the far left in Germany :- www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/25/thousands-protest-in-berlin-against-giving-weapons-to-ukraineleaves me wondering how secure German support for NATO policy on Ukraine might be in the future. I guess US cluster bombs are not going to help . Re the AfD (West) German support for NATO is as strong as ever. The east remains a resentful problem. I'm not going to go into all the many reasons why the east remains so different, culturally and economically three decades since re-unification but as mentioned I think by 1990 it had had such a different trajectory to the west that it was a vastly different culture. This was not appreciated enough at the time especially when there was such pressure for reunification not least from the ossis themselves who wanted West German money but still resent what they perceive as the condescending 'colonialism' of the West Germans. What manifests as not being supportive of Ukraine in the east is really a knee jerk anti Americanism that itself is a proxy for the resentment still felt towards West Germans. As I said I think they should have remained a separate state and found their own way like the other countries of Eastern Europe did. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2023 16:22:56 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 9, 2023 17:37:57 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 9, 2023 17:50:57 GMT
Rutte deliberately blew up the coalition by refusing to budge on a point he probably doesn't really agree with and knew wouldn't come into force (a delay on children of accepted refugees being allowed to follow on immediately). The reason he did this is probably so he can make a less restrained future come back where he can point to this as an example of him being tough on immigration. He's been in power since 2010 in various configurations. Maybe he just needed a break. Re. Protest parties in the Netherlands, this is nothing new, I was living in the Netherlands when Pim Fortyn (who was the right wing enfant terrible of his day) was shot over two decades ago. Front National success in France is also hardly a new phenomenon, I'm sure we all remember the 2002 presidential election. Asylum seekers forced to sleep outdoors in squalid conditions near an overcrowded reception centre in a country with 518 people per square kilometre seems like an issue to me. I'm sure Rutte believed it was too.... I mentioned France so let's look at Presidential Elections: 2002: Chirac 82.2% v JM Le Pen 17.8% (and on 79.7% turnout) 2007-12. Le Pen doesn't make 2nd round but Sarkozy then Hollande destroy the 'duopoly' 2017: New boy Macron 66.1% v M Le Pen 33.9% (on 74.6% turnout) 2022: Establishment Macron 58.9% v Le Pen 41.5% (on 72.0% turnout) 2027: ?? Macron can't run for a 3rd term. Philippe is close to 'continuity Macron' and would probably beat Le Pen but the field is likely to be packed with Right Wing nutters and the odd Left Wing nutter (eg Mélenchon). It is possible France elect a nutter and I'm pretty certain 'anti-immigration' will be a major factor in the next French elections. One "theory" is that Macron aping the Far-Right encourages people to go for the 'full fat' version. Obviously likes of Groan support that theory:
Here’s the truth about Emmanuel Macron: he helped create this far-right monsterwww.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/11/emmanuel-macron-far-right-le-pen-zemmourHowever, how to explain the drift in rEU? Perhaps, people are sick of the 'establishment' parties and want change. Greece had a go at the Far-Left and that didn't work, they are now run by a Right-Wing anti-immigration govt. Others are trying the Far-Right and in some cases liking it (although it's still early days for most of them)
Europe swings right — and reshapes the EUwww.politico.eu/article/far-right-giorgia-meloni-europe-swings-right-and-reshapes-the-eu/I've neglected to mention Finland in the past but above covers quite a lot of countries. A cautionary tale for those in UK who "assume" we'll reject such a shift at home (although it's possible Starmer adopts the 'LoC' approach of Denmark - where they have fended off the Far-Right parties by adopting the Far-Right views on immigration). |
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Post by moby on Jul 9, 2023 18:23:32 GMT
I see the Sunday paper reading doom mongers are out in force today with the usual narrative; the tories are acknowledged as crap and out of steam, a look across the channel confirms worst fears for our future and of course Labour under Keir Starmer has no answers:-  youtu.be/LYwdZmmHF3wyoutu.be/Kho5KvPBDSwImo such attitudes are often expressed by those whose preferred political preferences are on the way out. 'Woe betide us all' gives comfort to the losers and will inevitably be followed with.. ....'I told you so' sometime in the future. There's nothing new in this world is there! |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 19:25:58 GMT
I assume you're joking. Just in case you're not what on earth has 'tackling obesity' got to do with TfL, or any organisation for that matter? I am most certainly not joking. TfL is a govt entity and GLA has devolved powers. The devolved govts of Scotland and Wales are pushing ahead in a few small ways as well. Obesity and 'poor health' generally are massive issues that are costing NHS and the broader economy a fortune - most of which is "avoidable". I appreciate the 'libertarians' will cry 'nanny state' but do we let people in UK carry guns? smoke in pubs? drive at whatever speed they want to on the roads (with however much alcohol/drugs they want to have inside them when they do so)? NO. So why are doing f-all about obesity and other health issues? That's because those things are illegal. As far as I know it isn't yet illegal to like cake. This is fascism by the back door aquila.usm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1049&context=ojhe"Nazi policies favored healthful food and opposed fat, sugar, alcohol, and sedentary lifestyles (Proctor, 1999b; Lemieux, 1999)." |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 19:27:55 GMT
colin I think you've got the wrong end of the stick and gone off on a hobby horse tangent. If I understood pjw1961 correctly, he wasn't "complaining" at all about people who no longer put political posters and signs up at elections. He was bemoaning, I think correctly, the increased toxicity in our politics that now deter people from potentially upsetting their neighbours by signalling their support for a specific political party at election time. I agree with him that this is sad and reduces the sense of occasion, and even the fun, of electioneering. Why this observation led to a discussion about "bubbles", "real people" and party "activists" ( yet again) I do not know. Another example of how a sensible comment quickly becomes the trigger for a much less illuminating discussion. Which is a pity. Yes I saw his suggestion that fear of upsetting others is causing the lack of overt political displays he observes. Obviously I can't comment on his personal doorstep experiences. But I find that suggestion a bit odd. Fear of getting a brick through the window, more like. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 19:30:58 GMT
Indeed the drip feed of misinformation turns into a torrent and what was a canard in the first place becomes the accepted wisdom. View AttachmentPicking up some of Rinder's themes about corrosive propaganda and the dangers of us becoming blind to its effects, I wonder if we need to also ask a question of ourselves in order to health check one of his other points about complacency. We're very familiar with these mass circulation largely right wing newspapers in this country, their comforting titles and their often bland content beyond the comments and opinion sections. But how do we know that their proprietors and editors aren't fascists by nature and, in essence, have no real commitment to democracy at all? A dramatic question but one, maybe, we need to start asking, I think. Put another way, what might we have amidst us now that is already eating away at our civilised society? Could it possibly be many thousands if not millions of people who have come from societies that do not share our idea of what a civilised society is? |
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Post by RAF on Jul 9, 2023 19:33:46 GMT
I am most certainly not joking. TfL is a govt entity and GLA has devolved powers. The devolved govts of Scotland and Wales are pushing ahead in a few small ways as well. Obesity and 'poor health' generally are massive issues that are costing NHS and the broader economy a fortune - most of which is "avoidable". I appreciate the 'libertarians' will cry 'nanny state' but do we let people in UK carry guns? smoke in pubs? drive at whatever speed they want to on the roads (with however much alcohol/drugs they want to have inside them when they do so)? NO. So why are doing f-all about obesity and other health issues? That's because those things are illegal. As far as I know it isn't yet illegal to like cake. This is fascism by the back door aquila.usm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1049&context=ojhe"Nazi policies favored healthful food and opposed fat, sugar, alcohol, and sedentary lifestyles (Proctor, 1999b; Lemieux, 1999)." I understand the concern to a degree but there really is nothing wrong with the GLA promoting healthy lifestyles. TfL will typically run ads for all sorts of public and private entities including local and central government. If there are organisations who take a different view they could probably run their ads too and let the public make up their own minds who to follow. |
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Post by reggieside on Jul 9, 2023 19:44:00 GMT
Picking up some of Rinder's themes about corrosive propaganda and the dangers of us becoming blind to its effects, I wonder if we need to also ask a question of ourselves in order to health check one of his other points about complacency. We're very familiar with these mass circulation largely right wing newspapers in this country, their comforting titles and their often bland content beyond the comments and opinion sections. But how do we know that their proprietors and editors aren't fascists by nature and, in essence, have no real commitment to democracy at all? A dramatic question but one, maybe, we need to start asking, I think. Put another way, what might we have amidst us now that is already eating away at our civilised society? Could it possibly be many thousands if not millions of people who have come from societies that do not share our idea of what a civilised society is? The sort of society where the govenment order that murals be painted out in case traumatised children fleeing war and violence find them "too welcoming"- that sort of civilised? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 19:46:37 GMT
Am I seeing Tory supporters adapting to the inevitability of the impending defeat of the Government they have assiduously supported for so long now seeking succour in the unholy economic and social mess that they will bequeath the incoming Labour Government? In other words, consoling themselves that at least their approaching political bereavement will be mollified by the thought that they've screwed Labour. And of course, what was purely down to Putin, COVID and social democratic basket case EU countries, will become all Labour's fault within seven days. 😲😆 There is no succour ( sic) for me. And I don't believe that all our ills are "purely down to Putin & Covid"-nor did I say so. But to deny that the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies have had no economic effects in UK and EU is to deny fact. I think there's a superfluous 'no' in your last sentence, but if I understand your basic point, I agree. Denying fact seems to be the latest fashion. e.g. the 'Not my King' protests and that dressing as the opposite sex turns you into one of them. Also of course the 'fact' that Covid started in Hastings in 2019. 🤣 |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 9, 2023 19:48:45 GMT
I see the Sunday paper reading doom mongers are out in force today with the usual narrative; the tories are acknowledged as crap and out of steam, a look across the channel confirms worst fears for our future and of course Labour under Keir Starmer has no answers:- youtu.be/LYwdZmmHF3wyoutu.be/Kho5KvPBDSwImo such attitudes are often expressed by those whose preferred political preferences are on the way out. 'Woe betide us all' gives comfort to the losers and will inevitably be followed with.. ....'I told you so' sometime in the future. There's nothing new in this world is there! Yes, I think that's what might be going on here too. The game's up and it's a scramble for face-saving positions that avoid culpability and embarrassment. Everything is hopeless, nobody has any answers and the whole of politics is a venal and corrupt mess. What I don't fully understand though, apart from it being a possible distraction ploy that plays into the "every country is a basket case, it ain't just us" narrative, is this fixation with an apparent Far Right surge in Europe that "may be meeting voters concerns." The Far Right have always been present in both UK and European politics. Their fortunes wax and wane, but unless they hitch rides with mainstream centre right parties in coalitions, they are nowhere near seizing outright power in any major European democracy. In fact, if you take the most populous countries, and biggest economies, in Europe most are governed by centre left or centrist administrations, as in Germany, France, Spain and Portugal. The UK looks like it will go that way next year and the one exception, Italy, has a nominally Far Right PM tacking fairly quickly to the centre now in power. She heads a very rickety coalition. If we go more globally, the US, Brazil and Australia have all quite recently jettisoned right wing governments and replaced them with centrist and centre left administrations. Of course, the situation is mixed and the Far Right, like the Far Left, gain some traction by offering populist solutions to deep seated economic and social issues, but their electoral strength is often exaggerated. In the Far Right's case, their cause is megaphoned by a surprising chunk of the mainstream media in some European countries. Strangely, Andrew Neil's organ, The Spectator, seem fixated on supposed Far Right success too. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 19:54:00 GMT
Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. I've just been offered a deal on my leccy and gas which is £50/month less than it has been until now. I turned down the fixed rate environmentally 'pure' version although it was slightly cheaper still because I think rates will fall further. But anyway, prices are coming down. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 20:07:32 GMT
FM - re ''What definitely has the potential to be hilarious (as I suggested yesterday) is the choice Tory members (probably the least well equipped group in the UK to judge a person’s suitability to become party leader) make for next Party leader.'' I agree but after 2 terms in opposition the desire to get elected takes over. So Cameron beats Davis and for Labour, who have similar membership/voter disconnects, Starmer takes over from Corbyn. My expectation would be for the Tories, should they as seem most likely lose, elect the most right wing leader twice but for the person with a chance of victory (or at least losing with dignity) to take over after a third GE defeat. NB) I say twice but I guess could be more, I am thinking for 2 GEs more really. Interesting to note YouGov's most recent table for 'Most Popular Conservative Politician'. yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/allThere's a distinctly "has-been" look to the Top 20 with 5 of them over 80, and one who is no longer even alive. Only 2 of the top 10 are still in Parliament, these being Sunak himself (No 1) and Theresa May at No 5. Ben Wallace at No 11 is the highest of any sitting MP other than May and Sunak, and he's closely followed by Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Morduant. I agree that it's not very promising for hopefuls (apart from Boris!), but - PEDANTRY ALERT a number of the top 10 are in Parliament in the Lords, so I think you meant the Commons rather than Parliament. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 9, 2023 20:13:15 GMT
Interesting to note YouGov's most recent table for 'Most Popular Conservative Politician'. yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/conservative-politicians/allThere's a distinctly "has-been" look to the Top 20 with 5 of them over 80, and one who is no longer even alive. Only 2 of the top 10 are still in Parliament, these being Sunak himself (No 1) and Theresa May at No 5. Ben Wallace at No 11 is the highest of any sitting MP other than May and Sunak, and he's closely followed by Patel, Braverman, Rees-Mogg and Morduant. Do you care to comment on the LAB list? yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/labour-politicians/allStarmer only 3rd with Rayner and Cooper just inside top10. Corbyn 1st, Burnham 2nd, Khan 4th might concern Starmer. Dennis Skinner 9th is 91 and President of the Socialist Campaign Group. YG don't do a popularity table for LDEM*. Might have struggled to even to get to 20 that people had heard of * Davey is in 'Others' at 16th (behind some former LDEM leaders - even Clegg!) Daisy Cooper beats Davey but #1 is Farage yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/other-uk-public-figuresNB Quite happy to agree with anyone else who thinks that YG's popularity polling isn't that useful and just FWIW then I'm not sure why they didn't include Thatcher in the CON list (she'd have made #1) yougov.co.uk/topics/international/explore/public_figure/Margaret_ThatcherThe 'Other' list is weird. Gerry Adams is 13th and Neil Hamilton 18th for instance! |
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(as I suggested yesterday) is the choice Tory members (probably the least well equipped group in the UK to judge a person’s suitability to become party leader) make for next Party leader.''
