24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 9:11:06 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 9, 2023 8:50:40 GMT colin said:

Interesting observations.  

I wonder whether the electronic home security devices you see now ,are a function of feelings of insecurity and fear of crime , rather than withdrawal from "society".

I certainly agree that internet/social media has had a profound effect on social interaction . Though effects differ depending on age group I suspect.

As to the reluctance to respond to political door knockers and reduced political activity. Not sure I would lump this in with your other observations about personal interaction.

I'm more inclined to believe it is a function of a tired ennui about the political class and its foot soldiers. An increasing belief that they  dont have any idea how to solve the multiple problems of today. Only empty words.

I don't think this feeling is restricted to UK either I should say 

I agree about the insecurity and fear of crime point, but it is worth saying that in many areas it is the perception of crime rather than the reality. I worked in a rural district in Essex that the crime statistics showed was a very low crime area (to which the Police naturally responded with minimal policing) but surveys showed the fear of crime, especially among the more elderly population, was very high. The absence of a police presence didn't help with reassurance, but the biggest factor seemed to be where they got their news. That cohort tended to read papers like the Mail and Express who made crime central of their news coverage, with a general message that the country was going to the dogs. Of course, the media generally loves a crime story, especially a murder. Thus a large perception gap had grown between how dangerous their own neighbourhood actually was and what they believed to be the case.  

If I may say so-thats a familiar trope from your side of politics. The DM makes people believe in non existent crime.  

[steve]

catfuzz
The problem with using them to de-mining is effectively you lay a new random mine field in the process

[Deleted]

Interesting report in the Times :-

"Ed Miliband gave an animated Powerpoint presentation to the shadow cabinet on his revolutionary energy policies, speaking excitedly of the hope and change he believed they would bring.

His reception from Sir Keir Starmer, however, was decidedly lukewarm.

“[Starmer] thanked him for his presentation, but said he wasn’t interested in hope and change, he was more interested in creating sustainable new jobs to replace jobs in old sectors that were being lost,” said a source. “He then said he was not interested in tree-huggers, before adding to everyone’s surprise, ‘In fact, I hate tree-huggers’.”
The comments surprised some in the meeting, which took place the day after Starmer gave a speech on energy strategy in Aberdeen last month, but they are symptomatic of the divide that exists between him and Miliband.

Those close to the leader believe it is the economic challenge, not climate change, the party needs to focus on. They see Miliband as an eco-warrior who is more interested in the green agenda than the party’s central priorities of jobs, bills and energy security.

A shadow cabinet minister said: “Keir is always trying to anchor the party. Ed will always try to toe the line by saying that the party’s priorities are jobs, bills, energy security and climate change in that order. He can’t help himself, he is a hopey-changey kind of person.”"

[steve]

Excellent analysis of the attempted military coup by America's biggest hemorrhoid and his acolytes by MSNBC

youtu.be/c3byogy8Low

[crossbat11]

Am I seeing Tory supporters adapting to the inevitability of the impending defeat of the Government they have assiduously supported for so long now seeking succour in the unholy economic and social mess that they will bequeath the incoming Labour Government?

In other words, consoling themselves that at least their approaching political bereavement will be mollified by the thought that they've screwed Labour.

And of course, what was purely down to Putin, COVID and social democratic basket case EU countries, will become all Labour's fault within seven days.

😲😆

[catfuzz]

Jul 9, 2023 9:33:10 GMT steve said:

catfuzz
The problem with using them to de-mining is effectively you lay a new random mine field in the process

Yeah that’s a fair point

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 9:40:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

Am I seeing Tory supporters adapting to the inevitability of the impending defeat of the Government they have assiduously supported for so long now seeking succour in the unholy economic and social mess that they will bequeath the incoming Labour Government?

In other words, consoling themselves that at least their approaching political bereavement will be mollified by the thought that they've screwed Labour.

And of course, what was purely down to Putin, COVID and social democratic basket case EU countries, will become all Labour's fault within seven days.

😲😆

There is no succour ( sic) for me. 

And I don't believe that all our ills are "purely down to Putin & Covid"-nor did I say so.

But to deny that the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies  have had no economic effects in UK and EU is to deny fact.

[steve]

For those interested the constituency ( I use the word loosely) of Mad Nads Mid Beds local polling details

Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+6)
CON: 24% (-36)
IND: 19% (New)
LDM: 15% (+2)
RFM: 10% (New)

Via @opiniumresearch, TBC.
Changes w/ GE2019.
11:13 AM · Jul 2, 2023


Of course despite pocketing £145,000 in mps pay and expenses Mad Nads even at the best of times doesn't visit her constituency, she lives some 90 miles away and is currently believed to be on holiday!

[shevii]

Jul 9, 2023 9:36:23 GMT colin said:

Interesting report in the Times :-

"Ed Miliband gave an animated Powerpoint presentation to the shadow cabinet on his revolutionary energy policies, speaking excitedly of the hope and change he believed they would bring.

His reception from Sir Keir Starmer, however, was decidedly lukewarm.

“[Starmer] thanked him for his presentation, but said he wasn’t interested in hope and change, he was more interested in creating sustainable new jobs to replace jobs in old sectors that were being lost,” said a source. “He then said he was not interested in tree-huggers, before adding to everyone’s surprise, ‘In fact, I hate tree-huggers’.”
The comments surprised some in the meeting, which took place the day after Starmer gave a speech on energy strategy in Aberdeen last month, but they are symptomatic of the divide that exists between him and Miliband.

Those close to the leader believe it is the economic challenge, not climate change, the party needs to focus on. They see Miliband as an eco-warrior who is more interested in the green agenda than the party’s central priorities of jobs, bills and energy security.

A shadow cabinet minister said: “Keir is always trying to anchor the party. Ed will always try to toe the line by saying that the party’s priorities are jobs, bills, energy security and climate change in that order. He can’t help himself, he is a hopey-changey kind of person.”"

Not a million miles away from "let's get rid of the Green crap".  Miliband was one of those suggested as being ditched in a reshuffle.

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 10:16:25 GMT shevii said:

Jul 9, 2023 9:36:23 GMT colin said:

Interesting report in the Times :-

"Ed Miliband gave an animated Powerpoint presentation to the shadow cabinet on his revolutionary energy policies, speaking excitedly of the hope and change he believed they would bring.

His reception from Sir Keir Starmer, however, was decidedly lukewarm.

“[Starmer] thanked him for his presentation, but said he wasn’t interested in hope and change, he was more interested in creating sustainable new jobs to replace jobs in old sectors that were being lost,” said a source. “He then said he was not interested in tree-huggers, before adding to everyone’s surprise, ‘In fact, I hate tree-huggers’.”
The comments surprised some in the meeting, which took place the day after Starmer gave a speech on energy strategy in Aberdeen last month, but they are symptomatic of the divide that exists between him and Miliband.

Those close to the leader believe it is the economic challenge, not climate change, the party needs to focus on. They see Miliband as an eco-warrior who is more interested in the green agenda than the party’s central priorities of jobs, bills and energy security.

A shadow cabinet minister said: “Keir is always trying to anchor the party. Ed will always try to toe the line by saying that the party’s priorities are jobs, bills, energy security and climate change in that order. He can’t help himself, he is a hopey-changey kind of person.”"

Not a million miles away from "let's get rid of the Green crap".  Miliband was one of those suggested as being ditched in a reshuffle.

The article went on to describe the tensions in LP on that issue.

[Deleted]

colin

“ So whilst I understand Starmer's political caution in order to get into No. 19-(sic) when he is there reality is going to present itself and he will need to start making choices & producing solutions.”

So he’s planning to get to no.10 in easy stages then? Even more cautiouser (sic) than wot I expected.

[somerjohn]

Colin:"But to deny that the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies have had no economic effects in UK and EU is to deny fact."

So you believe that "the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies have had no economic effects in UK and EU."

Your taste for cryptic comments has got the better of you, I think.

(Just analyse what you wrote, if your instinct is for a kneejerk rebuttal).

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 10:19:57 GMT somerjohn said:

Colin:"But to deny that the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies have had no economic effects in UK and EU is to deny fact."

So you believe that "the Pandemic and Russia's war on Ukraine and European Energy supplies have had no economic effects in UK and EU."

Your taste for cryptic comments has got the better of you, I think.

(Just analyse what you wrote, if your instinct is for a kneejerk rebuttal).

Good spot.! Thanks 

[crossbat11]

Jul 9, 2023 10:19:50 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

colin

“ So whilst I understand Starmer's political caution in order to get into No. 19-(sic) when he is there reality is going to present itself and he will need to start making choices & producing solutions.”

So he’s planning to get to no.10 in easy stages then? Even more cautiouser (sic) than wot I expected.

I'm intrigued by the notion that a PM needs to make choices and find solutions.

Is Starmer aware of this, do you think?

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 10:33:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:19:50 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

colin

“ So whilst I understand Starmer's political caution in order to get into No. 19-(sic) when he is there reality is going to present itself and he will need to start making choices & producing solutions.”

So he’s planning to get to no.10 in easy stages then? Even more cautiouser (sic) than wot I expected.

I'm intrigued by the notion that a PM needs to make choices and find solutions.

Is Starmer aware of this, do you think?

Someone will tell him I expect. 

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 9, 2023 9:29:20 GMT colin said:

Jul 9, 2023 9:10:12 GMT Mr Poppy said:

To which I'd add some people might think some politicians know what they should do but think the politicians are too scared of doing it because they think it is unpopular

Times reports that  Starmer/Reeves will channel Blair /Brown and commit to Tory spending plans in the short term.

I think that-if true-is certainly another example of not frightening the horses. Of course it may be that Reeves sees the virtue and necessity of such plans 


More broadly I do think that any politician will struggle with today's array of problems....

We (UK, rEurope, etc) do face a daunting array of problems but that doesn't excuse navel gazing (which Rishi-CON and Starmer-LAB are both doing).

In your other replies then (IMO) Miliband has finally found his calling and whilst Reeves needs to keep him in control then she could tweak the investment rules to broaden investment, creating more jobs, moving faster to Net Zero. I'd be very disappointed if Miliband is shuffled out and replaced with a Starmer-bot. Some Green types who lent their vote to LAB might stop lending their vote as well?

Politicians need to get elected but there is a difference between 'frightening the horses' and sending the horses to sleep. TBC if LAB can get as high a GOTV in a GE as polling suggests but I reckon we'll see lower turnout in GE'24 unless someone comes up with something other than 'managed decline' and 'sticking plasters' (which IMO both parties are guilty of doing).

Folks might disagree on what change we need* but we do need some change. 

* Obviously the Groan journos desperately trying to say LAB are not now a Tory Party, yet think the change is to go backwards to Old Model Tory (ie Rejoin EU)  🤦‍♂️
I'd agree they are 'timid' (as is Tory Plan A)
www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/09/starmers-labour-are-not-the-tories-but-they-are-timid

Well if our politicians want to go back to blaming EU rather than taking responsibility to sort our problems out then blaming someone else did used to work (and of course the Scots can still do it WRT to Westminster). 

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 9, 2023 10:41:51 GMT colin said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:33:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

I'm intrigued by the notion that a PM needs to make choices and find solutions.

Is Starmer aware of this, do you think?

Someone will tell him I expect. 

Possibly not into GE'24. Being ABCON will likely be enough to win GE'24 and LAB are best placed to do that (SNP, LDEM, etc having only limited numbers of seats they can gain and wouldn't be able to form a govt without LAB)

However, the voters might soon realise that LAB are as a crap as CON when it comes to "delivery" of priorities/missions. Then into GE'29?? What is happening in some EU countries* is a concerning thought of where UK might turn to next once people realise LAB are as crap as CON. 

* I've mentioned Sweden, Italy, possibly Spain soon. I note you mentioned Netherlands earlier:
Mark Rutte: Dutch coalition government collapses in migration row
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66139789

Noting that BBB (Farmer's Citizen Movement) is currently polling enough to be the largest party, making it very hard for 'others' to form any kind of stable coalition. Another reminder that those pushing PR should be careful what they wish for!
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Dutch_general_election#

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 10:33:27 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:19:50 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

colin

“ So whilst I understand Starmer's political caution in order to get into No. 19-(sic) when he is there reality is going to present itself and he will need to start making choices & producing solutions.”

So he’s planning to get to no.10 in easy stages then? Even more cautiouser (sic) than wot I expected.

I'm intrigued by the notion that a PM needs to make choices and find solutions.

Is Starmer aware of this, do you think?

Dunno. Why d’you think ole colin was sick about your spelling of “succour” though?

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 10:49:45 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:41:51 GMT colin said:

Someone will tell him I expect. 

Possibly not into GE'24. Being ABCON will likely be enough to win GE'24 and LAB are best placed to do that (SNP, LDEM, etc having only limited numbers of seats they can gain and wouldn't be able to form a govt without LAB)

However, the voters might soon realise that LAB are as a crap as CON when it comes to "delivery" of priorities/missions. Then into GE'29?? What is happening in some EU countries is a concerning thought of where UK might turn to next once people realise LAB are as crap as CON. 

It will certainly be a testing term for him.  The outcome of GE29 depends as much on what the Conservative do to themselves in opposition.

I fear the worst.

The rise of the farmers, party in Netherlands is a lesson in getting the politics of climate change response in conflict with the fundamentals of your economy. Killing half the livestock in a country with a massive agriculture sector in that case. Maybe Starmer took notes. ?

[alec]

From the G - "Minister tells BBC to act ‘very swiftly’ over allegations about presenter" - www.theguardian.com/media/2023/jul/09/minister-tells-bbc-to-act-very-swiftly-over-allegations-about-presenter

Rest of the country tells ministers to act 'very swiftly' over the dozens of gropers and sex fiends in the Tory party.

[graham]

Jul 9, 2023 10:15:51 GMT steve said:

For those interested the constituency ( I use the word loosely) of Mad Nads Mid Beds local polling details

Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+6)
CON: 24% (-36)
IND: 19% (New)
LDM: 15% (+2)
RFM: 10% (New)

Via @opiniumresearch, TBC.
Changes w/ GE2019.
11:13 AM · Jul 2, 2023


Of course despite pocketing £145,000 in mps pay and expenses Mad Nads even at the best of times doesn't visit her constituency, she lives some 90 miles away and is currently believed to be on holiday!

This poll was highlighted in the Sunday Telegraph - and discussed here - a week ago.

[crossbat11]

Crikey, there really is panic on the streets of Toryland.

We've fast-forwarded to the 2029 election now!!

And please note. Everybody is as crap as they are.

If that doesn't do the trick in terms of consolation then they pivot to the line that the opposition are Tories in disguise so they win anyway whatever the result of the election.

Hilarious twaddle.

[steve]

graham
It's the same poll that was referenced to today with the 11% Tory certain voters.

[Mr Poppy]

Jul 9, 2023 10:57:26 GMT colin said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:49:45 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Possibly not into GE'24. Being ABCON will likely be enough to win GE'24 and LAB are best placed to do that (SNP, LDEM, etc having only limited numbers of seats they can gain and wouldn't be able to form a govt without LAB)

However, the voters might soon realise that LAB are as a crap as CON when it comes to "delivery" of priorities/missions. Then into GE'29?? What is happening in some EU countries is a concerning thought of where UK might turn to next once people realise LAB are as crap as CON. 

It will certainly be a testing term for him.  The outcome of GE29 depends as much on what the Conservative do to themselves in opposition.

I fear the worst.

The rise of the farmers, party in Netherlands is a lesson in getting the politics of climate change response in conflict with the fundamentals of your economy. Killing half the livestock in a country with a massive agriculture sector in that case. Maybe Starmer took notes. ?

I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future.

Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. 

France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't.  

If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s)

Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well? 

* "The Dutch farmers’ party victory is a warning to the green movement"
unherd.com/thepost/the-dutch-farmers-party-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-green-movement/

[pjw1961]

Jul 9, 2023 9:32:34 GMT colin said:

Jul 9, 2023 9:11:06 GMT pjw1961 said:

I agree about the insecurity and fear of crime point, but it is worth saying that in many areas it is the perception of crime rather than the reality. I worked in a rural district in Essex that the crime statistics showed was a very low crime area (to which the Police naturally responded with minimal policing) but surveys showed the fear of crime, especially among the more elderly population, was very high. The absence of a police presence didn't help with reassurance, but the biggest factor seemed to be where they got their news. That cohort tended to read papers like the Mail and Express who made crime central of their news coverage, with a general message that the country was going to the dogs. Of course, the media generally loves a crime story, especially a murder. Thus a large perception gap had grown between how dangerous their own neighbourhood actually was and what they believed to be the case.  

If I may say so-thats a familiar trope from your side of politics. The DM makes people believe in non existent crime.  

It is real crime but very rare. The effect of media reporting is that people believe it is more common than it is. Plenty of hard statistical evidence for this 'trope' from the British crime survey. Perhaps you need to get out of your bubble more. 

ONS for example: "In general, the survey shows that individuals’ perceptions of crime on a national level do not typically match well to reality."
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/publicperceptionsofcrimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2016

[leftieliberal]

Jul 9, 2023 8:54:14 GMT steve said:

Must be ill I found myself liking a Trevor post,shouldn't eat cheese late at night.

Don't worry, when you feel better you can unlike Trevor again by pressing the "like" button a second time.

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 11:11:58 GMT crossbat11 said:

Crikey, there really is panic on the streets of Toryland.

We've fast-forwarded to the 2029 election now!!

And please note. Everybody is as crap as they are.

If that doesn't do the trick in terms of consolation then they pivot to the line that the opposition are Tories in disguise so they win anyway whatever the result of the election.

Hilarious twaddle.

What definitely has the potential to be hilarious  (as I suggested yesterday) is the choice Tory members (probably the least well equipped group in the UK to judge a person’s suitability to become party leader) make for next Party leader.

Its a bit sad but I’m quite looking forward to that.

[Deleted]

Jul 9, 2023 11:56:21 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:57:26 GMT colin said:

I'm usually fairly optimistic but I do worry a bit about the future.

Netherlands not my polity and I don't follow what's happening there that closely. Like a lot of EU countries with PR then they seem to have a number of 'protest' parties that rise and fall in appeal. The 'protest' seems to vary a bit as well. So I'm not so sure Netherlands is drifting 'anti-Green'* as much as considering trying something other than the 'Establishment' parties. Overall, the rise of 'protest' across Europe is a bit of a worry and something I hope we don't copy. 

France used to have close to a 'duopoly' that switched from Centre-Left to Centre-Right every few years (as did likes of Italy and others). Macron was "new" but is 'Establishment'. Germans gave the Greens a shot but are now looking at the Alternative for Deutschland. Spain might well have Vox as junior coalition partners after their elections. Sweden and Italy have Far-Right parties in power. Greece and Denmark have some policies that the EU-luvvies probably want to pretend they don't.  

If UK was adopt PR and CON were to go into 1997-2010 kind of 'withdrawal' then I expect we'd see the rise of 'protest' parties in England/UK (and not just of the Orange or Green variety). Someone will fill a void on the RoC-Socially Conservative side if CON don't occupy that space. I expect they would be a lot further right than CON (although I appreciate some people seem to think CON are Far-Right, due to their own lack of awareness and thinking UK 2023 is like Germany 1930s)

Other futures are possible of course and I'm not writing CON off just yet. Stuff like inflation will fall later this year. Unemployment is very low. House prices will likely stabilise and BoE will be probably be cutting rates next year. Hopefully the 'psychodrama' stuff is over. None of that is an excuse to continue navel gazing but it will hopefully create a better background environment for Rishi+co. to be a it bolder in the next 18mths and then hopefully Starmer ups his game a bit as well? 

* "The Dutch farmers’ party victory is a warning to the green movement"
unherd.com/thepost/the-dutch-farmers-party-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-green-movement/

Yes continental coalition government is a strange beast to us. It was immigration which collapsed Rutte's government. -the most densely populated country in Europe.The farmers party cow farting thing was just another straw though their leader could now become a significant player there !

Yes-lots of change in European politics. All interesting stuff. But indicative of voter concerns I think in the main.

Afraid I have written Con off next time. I think Sunak's managerialism just isnt enough for the circumstances -and his political antennae are not really up to it. He isn't good at interviews on the hoof. Actually I think it is time for a change. I know Starmer might be a raving Trot in disguise, but don't really think so.
There will be a degree of continuity-but fresh ideas.

And Con really need to decide what they want to be.

[leftieliberal]

Jul 9, 2023 11:56:21 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Jul 9, 2023 10:57:26 GMT colin said:

* "The Dutch farmers’ party victory is a warning to the green movement"
unherd.com/thepost/the-dutch-farmers-party-victory-is-a-warning-to-the-green-movement/

I don't take much from unherd seriously. Apart from Giles Fraser they are mostly right-wing nutters or gender-critical feminists. It's hardly the model of balanced reporting. Sadly, there haven't been many articles from Giles recently; I was hoping he would comment on the Press's over-reaction to the Archbishop of York's speech to Synod.

[jimjam]

FM - re ''What definitely has the potential to be hilarious (as I suggested yesterday) is the choice Tory members (probably the least well equipped group in the UK to judge a person’s suitability to become party leader) make for next Party leader.''

I agree but after 2 terms in opposition the desire to get elected takes over.

So Cameron beats Davis and for Labour, who have similar membership/voter disconnects, Starmer takes over from Corbyn.

My expectation would be for the Tories, should they as seem most likely lose, elect the most right wing leader twice but for the person with a chance of victory (or at least losing with dignity) to take over after a third GE defeat.

NB) I say twice but I guess could be more, I am thinking for 2 GEs more really.