24-April 2023 : LAB 44% / CON 29% / LDEM 11% / GRN 5%

[alurqa]

Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT alec said:

Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.

The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.

So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.

I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.

The Single Market demands the four freedoms. Given our weak position why would the EU let us fudge that again? It's either full Schengen membership like the rest of Europe or fuck off. Your shit. You sleep in it.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jul 8, 2023 10:16:53 GMT steve said:

johntel

White women have been known to marry other colour people it's not some woke imaginary thing you know.


View Attachment

Hi steve, our wedding pictures would similarly support your point. Faith (apologies if I have her name wrong) looks wonderful btw.

[pjw1961]

Jul 8, 2023 8:38:43 GMT Danny said:

Jul 8, 2023 6:23:43 GMT pjw1961 said:

You may be right about the apathy but I'm not sure you can judge from posters. Public displays of political affiliation seem to have gone out of fashion. It is very hard to get anyone beyond actual party members to put up a poster these days. 

Does this not suggest a general distaste by all voters with all parties?

I think it is more the culture war stuff and 'post-Brexit' politics. People are scared of a massive row with the neighbours if they take a different view. 

[alec]

alurqa - "The Single Market demands the four freedoms. Given our weak position why would the EU let us fudge that again?"

One of the criticisms of the EU by Brexiters, while also being one of the reasons why pro-Europeans credit the EU, is it's infinite flexibility in how it's rules are interpreted and enforced. If they wanted the UK to rejoin, and thereby bag another net contributor to their budget, there would be a negotiation, and strange things might happen. Or they might take a hard line - it's a hypothetical, that no-one can fully predict.

The other point is that a future UK government may choose to enforce the conditions on EU citizens free movement, if we are forced to accept these, something that successive governments failed to do. So EU citizens would be allowed to reside in the UK for three months with no conditions, (like Brazilians, or anyone else from the very many countries with a visa free travel agreement) although the government could required them to report their presence.

Then, after three months, if they were not looking for work, they could be deported, or if they were looking for work but after a further three months they had no prospect of finding work they could then be deported - along with any dependents that came with them.

This wouldn't satisfy everyone, but it would possibly help people to understand that there is no outright right to free movement. There is a right to work, but not necessarily to reside. If the UK government had ever had a proper border policy, with proper recording of who was arriving and leaving, we might have been able to better control EU migration, but as with so many things EU, the bigger problem was the incompetence at Westminster, rather than the domination of Brussels.

[technical]

Jul 8, 2023 10:24:38 GMT leftieliberal said:

Jul 8, 2023 9:41:53 GMT technical said:

Dont post that often but a little info on that Uxbridge poll showing labour only gaining 3.5% on the 2019 vote. Dont know how reliable the JL Partners poll is but this seat has little in common with most other London seats. Heavy favourites with bookies but would imagine Lab not taking this for granted. The northern part is heavily traditional Con, Boris type supporters, non transient white working class tradesmen types and some professionals. Stop for a pint sometimes on way back, these places could`nt be much more different. Places like Ickenham and Hillingdon still have a village feel to them, often overhear groups of workers having a pint referring to lefties and whilst Con support is 20% down in the poll many of these will not switch to Lab but opt for fringe parties, the ULEZ issue is having some effect

For people on this board who don't live nearby (I live in the next-door Borough) it can be difficult to understand that there are parts of Greater London that still have a village feel to them, Ickenham and especially Harefield, both within the constituency, are two of them. As technical writes, the ULEZ issue is having an effect in this election with even the Labour candidate coming out against the speed with which it is being introduced. I still expect a Labour win, but with a much smaller swing than in the other by-elections on the same day. 

Thanks Leftie, forgot Harefield. I live a few miles further central in Richmond, very different to Uxbridge

[Mark]

Jul 7, 2023 22:34:59 GMT leftieliberal said:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.html

More than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.

Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.

But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.

Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU.

Hmmmm...that could be a problem for Labour.

If, as I suspect, Brexit is still a more salient issue than people/pollsters realise, it could come into play.

A lot of people get their info from the headlines on the main news. Come election time, when people pay that bit more attention - and the verious parties get more policy scrutiny, could there be people peeling away from Labour when they realise that they won't take us back into the SM/CU, let alone rejoin?

It won't help the tories one jot, but, could, if one/all play it well, see a late mini surge for LibDem / Greens / Plaid Cymru / SNP?

[neilj]

This is why Sunak was silly a few weeks ago to boast about boat crossings being reduced (after a period of bad weather)
He's made himself a hostage to fortune...and the weather

"New record number of Channel crossings in a single day so far this year"

[alurqa]

Jul 8, 2023 11:38:37 GMT alec said:

alurqa - "The Single Market demands the four freedoms. Given our weak position why would the EU let us fudge that again?"

One of the criticisms of the EU by Brexiters, while also being one of the reasons why pro-Europeans credit the EU, is it's infinite flexibility in how it's rules are interpreted and enforced. If they wanted the UK to rejoin, and thereby bag another net contributor to their budget, there would be a negotiation, and strange things might happen. Or they might take a hard line - it's a hypothetical, that no-one can fully predict.

The other point is that a future UK government may choose to enforce the conditions on EU citizens free movement, if we are forced to accept these, something that successive governments failed to do. So EU citizens would be allowed to reside in the UK for three months with no conditions, (like Brazilians, or anyone else from the very many countries with a visa free travel agreement) although the government could required them to report their presence.

Then, after three months, if they were not looking for work, they could be deported, or if they were looking for work but after a further three months they had no prospect of finding work they could then be deported - along with any dependents that came with them.

This wouldn't satisfy everyone, but it would possibly help people to understand that there is no outright right to free movement. There is a right to work, but not necessarily to reside. If the UK government had ever had a proper border policy, with proper recording of who was arriving and leaving, we might have been able to better control EU migration, but as with so many things EU, the bigger problem was the incompetence at Westminster, rather than the domination of Brussels.

The European Parliament is a strong defender of the four freedoms. As it would have a say in any rejoin or association with the bloc it would have to be happy that we won't be disruptive again. The Schengen rules are clear and apply to all participating countries. Given the deep mistrust we have developed with the EU I can only see watertight agreements being entered into. The fact that we contributed to EU budgets is, I agree, important. But it is not overriding. And if our politics are still unstable enough they are perceived that they could again cause damage, I can't honestly see us getting something different just because we did before. Schengen already has rules to allow member states to remove people who break the rules. We either like it or lump it. We are no longer special.

If we are not a member but some sort of 'associate' I can see them muddying the water using different terms to confuse the thick. But if we want the benefits of the Single Market we will have to fully accept the rules of the Single Market. If you stay in another member state for some you need to register after three months. But you don't have to go through border control to come in. We will have to accept that fact.

[Mark]

Danny said:

This would break down if people are disproportionately not self reporting thwmselves honestly, eg maybe if people so ashamed they voted a certain way will not now admit it.

Two things on this.

Firstly, there is the issue of genuine false recall vs. those that knowingly lie.

With the former, there is not mch that can be done. If someone genuinely, but, erroneously thinks they voted a certain way last time, that is what they think. End of.

For those that knowingly lie, I suspect that this is a much smaller problem these days.

Pre-internet when respondents would be surveyed by a well presented person with a clipboard, not wanting to make a bad impression (especially if the well turned out person is someone of the opposite gender - a factor I suspect to be greater in male respndents) the temptation to lie if you think the honest answer will show you in a bad light, will be greater than someone clicking on answers on a screen in their own home with no actual human contact during the process.

The same is also true regarding answers about voting intention for future elections.

[Danny]

Jul 8, 2023 11:07:05 GMT alurqa said:

Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT alec said:

Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.

The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.

So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.

I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.

The Single Market demands the four freedoms. Given our weak position why would the EU let us fudge that again? It's either full Schengen membership like the rest of Europe or fuck off. Your shit. You sleep in it.

and that is why we will have to fully rejoin eventually. Initially probably on far worse terms than before, simply accepting all the rules with no input to making them. Brexiteers have hung britain out to dry. If they werent paid by russia they should send a bill anyway. Order of Lenin coming your way as a hero of Russia.

[James E]

Jul 8, 2023 9:41:53 GMT technical said:

Dont post that often but a little info on that Uxbridge poll showing labour only gaining 3.5% on the 2019 vote. Dont know how reliable the JL Partners poll is but this seat has little in common with most other London seats. Heavy favourites with bookies but would imagine Lab not taking this for granted. The northern part is heavily traditional Con, Boris type supporters, non transient white working class tradesmen types and some professionals. Stop for a pint sometimes on way back, these places could`nt be much more different. Places like Ickenham and Hillingdon still have a village feel to them, often overhear groups of workers having a pint referring to lefties and whilst Con support is 20% down in the poll many of these will not switch to Lab but opt for fringe parties, the ULEZ issue is having some effect

That Uxbridge constituency poll seems consistent with the cross-break analysis for London from YouGov and Opinium I provided last week. 10 YouGov London cross-breaks from May and June 2023 averaged:

Lab 53% (+5)
Con 20% (-12)

So just a 8.5% swing compared to GE2019 (c/f 15% for GB as a whole). The 4 Opiniums for the same period average as Lab 54% (+6), Con 23 (-9) in London, so just an 7.5% swing. Deltapoll for the same period show both Con and Lab down 3 points in London, so no swing at all from GE2019, but I would have less faith in their figures, nor those of R&W, whose show Labour losing support in London. In fact R&W show Labour leading by more (8 to 28%)  in all other regions of England than in London (4%)!

The only recent London poll we have had was YouGov's 58/18 in late March, which I suspect was on the high side, with a 40% Lab lead, as the Opinium and YG figures above suggest more like 30%. But even that showed a lower Con to Lab swing of 12% compared to the GB-norm of around 16% then (and now). 

[leftieliberal]

Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT alec said:

Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.

The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.

So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.

I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.

It is very easy to lose the trust of others; far harder to regain it. With the EU already having trouble with recalcitrant members like Hungary and Poland it is very difficult to see them welcoming another. I expect them to demand both immediate acceptance of Schengen and replacement of the £ with the € as conditions of re-joining. Losing control of the currency that a Government borrows in is not to be taken lightly as countries like Greece and Italy have found.

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 6:23:43 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 8, 2023 0:21:17 GMT @isa said:

An update from the mean streets of Somerton and Frome where our intrepid local correspondent reports on the by-election activity as excitement reaches fever pitch, with less than a fortnight to go until polling day.

Having driven around a fair proportion of the constituency, I can report the following:

LDEM posters: a smattering, mainly in the gardens of substantial rustic cottages.

CON posters: 0. Not a one. This might be significant, as even when CON got a damn good shoeing last year in the Somerset Council elections, there was a scattering of CON posters, usually in the gardens of enormous houses.

LAB posters: 0. Not such a surprise.

Other posters: 0. Also not much of a surprise.

Campaign literature received:

LDEM: 1
CON:    1
LAB:     0
Christian People's Alliance (yes, really): 1
Others:  0

Candidate visits: 0

So there you have it. Apathy clearly well ahead.

You may be right about the apathy but I'm not sure you can judge from posters. Public displays of political affiliation seem to have gone out of fashion. It is very hard to get anyone beyond actual party members to put up a poster these days. 

You may need to get out of your bubble a bit more often.

 " beyond party members" is the real world where people try to cope with life's dificulties and think most politicians haven't a clue what those are and wouldn't know what to do about them if they did.

[Danny]

Jul 8, 2023 13:11:06 GMT Mark said:

Danny said:

This would break down if people are disproportionately not self reporting thwmselves honestly, eg maybe if people so ashamed they voted a certain way will not now admit it.

Two things on this.

Firstly, there is the issue of genuine false recall vs. those that knowingly lie.

With the former, there is not mch that can be done. If someone genuinely, but, erroneously thinks they voted a certain way last time, that is what they think. End of.

For those that knowingly lie, I suspect that this is a much smaller problem these days.

Pre-internet when respondents would be surveyed by a well presented person with a clipboard, not wanting to make a bad impression (especially if the well turned out person is someone of the opposite gender - a factor I suspect to be greater in male respndents) the temptation to lie if you think the honest answer will show you in a bad light, will be greater than someone clicking on answers on a screen in their own home with no actual human contact during the process.

The same is also true regarding answers about voting intention for future elections.

i take the point, but its hard to say how much people lie and why. Quite a few people who answer these sorts of polls are politically committed as we know from people posting here who do them. I used to. Those answering because they are politically committed arent really representative of the nation....even if they answer honestly and not falsely because they want to influence polls to make their party look good.

At a time like this pollsters might be losing people disproportionately because they have become disillusioned with a party. I wonder to what extent pollsters manage to get truly random respondents rather than people with an agenda. The idea of a personal interviewer was he had a list of names and was trying as much as possible to persuade randomly chosen people to take part. Each refusal degrades the statistical reliability of the survey.

There is a risk indeed that if all the people responding to polls are doing so because they are party supporters, then trying to normalise to the last election will make accuracy worse. Whereas counting respondents directly reflects how many have truly switched. Maybe thats why pollsters now prefer panels, because random samples have become impossible to get. (a good exampel is the ONS covid prevalence panel, where they had to contact huge nubers of people to get their quots because so many refused. This will have biased the sample hugely towards people who wanted to be regularly tested)

You could argue i lost interest in doing polls when libs betrayed me by going in with con. So i no longer had an agenda to boost their support. Ideolog con will have been abandoning their cause of late.

[graham]

Jul 8, 2023 12:15:31 GMT Mark said:

Jul 7, 2023 22:34:59 GMT leftieliberal said:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.html

More than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.

Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.

But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.

Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU.

Hmmmm...that could be a problem for Labour.

If, as I suspect, Brexit is still a more salient issue than people/pollsters realise, it could come into play.

A lot of people get their info from the headlines on the main news. Come election time, when people pay that bit more attention - and the verious parties get more policy scrutiny, could there be people peeling away from Labour when they realise that they won't take us back into the SM/CU, let alone rejoin?

It won't help the tories one jot, but, could, if one/all play it well, see a late mini surge for LibDem / Greens / Plaid Cymru / SNP?

Very unlikely I suspect. It is simply not an issue on the radar of many voters now- and has been massively overridden by other issues.

[James E]

Jul 8, 2023 13:48:25 GMT leftieliberal said:

Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT alec said:

Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.

The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.

So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.

I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.

It is very easy to lose the trust of others; far harder to regain it. With the EU already having trouble with recalcitrant members like Hungary and Poland it is very difficult to see them welcoming another. I expect them to demand both immediate acceptance of Schengen and replacement of the £ with the € as conditions of re-joining. Losing control of the currency that a Government borrows in is not to be taken lightly as countries like Greece and Italy have found.

Re joining the Euro and EC Membership. I believe this is a fair explanation:

ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/

"Do new members have to join the euro?

Apart from Denmark, which has a permanent opt out, all current EU member states are expected to join the euro – although this depends on meeting certain economic criteria and there is no set timetable in which they have to do so. Countries can, therefore, join the EU before joining the euro. For instance, six of the 13 countries that have joined the EU since 2004 have still yet to join the single currency.

There are four criteria that member states have to meet to do so: keeping inflation low and stable, ensuring public debt and the deficit are within EU rules, keeping interest rates low and tying the national currency to the euro for at least two years without serious issues, such as needing to devalue.

Politically, there would be substantial pressure on new member states to join the euro, not least as they would have joined the EU knowing eurozone membership was an expectation. Having said that, once countries have become EU member states there is no mechanism to force them to join the euro nor to sanction them if they fail to do so."

That final sentence is the part to bear in mind. There is no mechanism to force member States to join the Euro. So when someone claims that the UK would be 'forced' to join the Euro, the implication is that new and different rules would be created to treat the UK differently from the other non-Euro, EU Member States. 

[johntel]

Jul 8, 2023 13:48:25 GMT leftieliberal said:

Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT alec said:

Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.

The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.

So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.

I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.

It is very easy to lose the trust of others; far harder to regain it. With the EU already having trouble with recalcitrant members like Hungary and Poland it is very difficult to see them welcoming another. I expect them to demand both immediate acceptance of Schengen and replacement of the £ with the € as conditions of re-joining. Losing control of the currency that a Government borrows in is not to be taken lightly as countries like Greece and Italy have found.

On the other hand Macron's idea of a two-tier EU could be resurrected with the UK, Ukraine and even Turkey as potential members. .. 

[pjw1961]

Jul 8, 2023 13:54:59 GMT colin said:

Jul 8, 2023 6:23:43 GMT pjw1961 said:

You may be right about the apathy but I'm not sure you can judge from posters. Public displays of political affiliation seem to have gone out of fashion. It is very hard to get anyone beyond actual party members to put up a poster these days. 

You may need to get out of your bubble a bit more often.

 " beyond party members" is the real world where people try to cope with life's dificulties and think most politicians haven't a clue what those are and wouldn't know what to do about them if they did.

Given I spent several weeks in April tramping the streets for the local elections I suspect I have spoken to many more 'real people' than you have recently. 

[Deleted]

Jul 8, 2023 15:34:13 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 8, 2023 13:54:59 GMT colin said:

You may need to get out of your bubble a bit more often.

 " beyond party members" is the real world where people try to cope with life's dificulties and think most politicians haven't a clue what those are and wouldn't know what to do about them if they did.

Given I spent several weeks in April tramping the streets for the local elections I suspect I have spoken to many more 'real people' than you have recently. 

But have you met as many people from the “real world” as colin?

[domjg]

Jul 8, 2023 14:08:50 GMT graham said:

Jul 8, 2023 12:15:31 GMT Mark said:

Hmmmm...that could be a problem for Labour.

If, as I suspect, Brexit is still a more salient issue than people/pollsters realise, it could come into play.

A lot of people get their info from the headlines on the main news. Come election time, when people pay that bit more attention - and the verious parties get more policy scrutiny, could there be people peeling away from Labour when they realise that they won't take us back into the SM/CU, let alone rejoin?

It won't help the tories one jot, but, could, if one/all play it well, see a late mini surge for LibDem / Greens / Plaid Cymru / SNP?

Very unlikely I suspect. It is simply not an issue on the radar of many voters now- and has been massively overridden by other issues.

It's still an overriding issue with most people I know. Many of us coming of age in the nineties took it for granted and felt like we had been robbed. Literally.

[steve]

johntel

"That's a very stereotypical photo of a woman in a white dress marrying a man in a suit and tie! Women have been known to marry other women you know."

I'll let Faith know she's a stereotype she'll be delighted.
That's the last time I bought a tie incidentally other than one covered with flying hippos, I thought the grey one was preferable.

😁

[Danny]

Jul 8, 2023 14:08:50 GMT graham said:

Very unlikely I suspect. It is simply not an issue on the radar of many voters now- and has been massively overridden by other issues.

If political polling is largely dominated by people interested in politics and with an affiliation to one party, well both lab and con have an official line of saying the EU doesnt matter. This woudl bias surveys into responding that the EU is not an issue.

We know surveys have political bias, because when they ask questions about party leaderrs competence, the results massively track the party affiliation of respondents. They respond as they think their party wants them to.

Both lab and con said leaving the EU was not an important issue. Polling agreed, no one was interested. Until Farage started a party for people who thought it was.

[Danny]

Jul 8, 2023 15:27:50 GMT johntel said:

On the other hand Macron's idea of a two-tier EU could be resurrected with the UK, Ukraine and even Turkey as potential members. .. 

That would be funny - Uk being treated less importantly by the EU than Ukraine.

[steve]

barbara
Thanks for your comment.
34 years later and her wedding dress still fits , can't say the same for the suit!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 8, 2023 16:02:04 GMT steve said:

barbara
Thanks for your comment.
34 years later and her wedding dress still fits , can't say the same for the suit!

You can fit in the wedding dress better than the suit??

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
😂

Nope she's still a size 10 I am measured at the local hgv weighbridge


Having said that after stopping the heart meds I have lost 4 stone so maybe we can share in a few years time.

Meanwhile the Guardian take on the Selby byelection Given that the lib dems haven't managed more than 10% in the last decade there it was a novel take to conclude that it was a contest between Labour and the Lib Dems it wasn't actually on our to do list


www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/08/labour-throwing-the-kitchen-sink-at-selby-byelection-as-hopes-grow-of-shock-win

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 8, 2023 16:10:30 GMT steve said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
😂

Nope she's still a size 10 I am measured at the local hgv weighbridge


Having said that after stopping the heart meds I have lost 4 stone so maybe we can share in a few years time.

Meanwhile the Guardian take on the Selby byelection Given that the lib dems haven't managed more than 10% in the last decade there it was a novel take to conclude that it was a contest between Labour and the Lib Dems it wasn't actually on our to do list


www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/08/labour-throwing-the-kitchen-sink-at-selby-byelection-as-hopes-grow-of-shock-win

That’s an impressive amount of weight loss Steve. Did the heart meds prompt weight gain then?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 7, 2023 12:21:25 GMT alec said:

www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jul/07/patient-dies-hospitalised-sciensus-chemotherapy-incident

No big deal. They had co-morbisities. Probably going to die soon anyway. Nothing to worry about.

apparently not one, but three regulators are looking into it. It’s almost like… regulation for the private sector has issues. 

[alec]

I think it was neilj who posted a link regarding Jeremy Hunt's refusal to initiate pre-election tax cuts, in another remarkable repeat of history. Just like Ken Clarke in 1995 -97, Hunt looks set to face down the right of his party and opt to attempt to repair the national finances and meet the pressing needs of the public sector rather than chase electoral ghosts with damaging tax cuts. Like Clarke, he probably reasons that the election is lost anyway, and it would be better to lose with a memory of a responsible chancellor, rather than a reckless partisan.

Meanwhile, in another case of history repeating itself, I've been increasingly struck by the similarities in the failings of the medical community over covid and the last great pandemic, that of Aids in the 1980s and 90s. As now, many doctors and those in senior positions within the medical establishment shunned the developing scientific research and looked upon AIDS as something not relevant, restricted to certain types, and refused to recogise many of the results. Many doctors participated in the 'gay plague' myth making, and subsequent fearmongering when the victims were treated as outcasts responsible for their own suffering, rather than victims needing help. It took the intervention of figures like Elizabeth Taylor and Lady Di to shake up the medical establishments and shame those individuals into action.

With covid, the dynamics are different, but there are still historical parallels. Many medics are simply ignoring the science, giving false reassurance and placing greater emphasis on normality than infection control. Many are still insisting that the disease is only a problem for a few vulnerable individuals, despite the mounting evidence for much broader medical impacts across a huge swathe of the population.

Historically, medicine has a very bad record on adapting to new learning in the field of transmissible disease. From the need to wash hands in the 1850s, to AIDs, the covid, doctors have been consistently behind the curve, even though society elevates them to a high ranking position.

Lets hope we learn those lessons quickly.

[steve]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w
The combination of water retention and potassium sparing meds meant I blew up like a balloon, most of my hair fell out as well.

As I've recovered and probably didn't need the medication beyond three years ago ( thanks covid end to routine checks) I'm seeing promising features on the weight front my hairs growing back but it looks like a bog brush, still work in progress.