Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 8:54:15 GMT
i think by now con have nothing to lose by hanging on....if they can. Sunak with hunt are the compromise the party could live with till time is up. Unless the split between the hard brexiteers and those with hope of re-election becomes intolerable. If they wanted to go early to save credibility, they already missed their chance. The problem for labour will be that brexit is a cancer still eating into the uk economy. There is no solution to world migration caused by regimes abroad except to improve conditions in those countries. And we have shown little interest in doing that! Climate change will make matters worse. Europe neefs a solution to this collectively because unless we are part of that France will never stop people ceasing to be part of their problem to become part of ours. A trade war is spreading between china and the us, and the us has decided to re shore many industries it gave up. Thats trade disruption on top of famine. The uk has made itself without friend or influence or trade block through brexit. The only solution is to rejoin at least the eu markets and while i agree it might take 50 years to recover our former power, the clock doesnt start until we take the first steps. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 8:56:06 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. Even as relatively noble a character as John Major pushed it to the max in 97 I think as did Brown more or less in 2010. It seems to be the default position for incumbents who know they are most likely to lose so yes, I expect we won't get to chuck them out until the very end of 2024 or Jan 2025. The only thing that makes me think Sunak may go earlier is that '97 and 2010 were of course Spring elections and possibly Sunak may prefer to go next summer as a winter election may cause even more disgruntled, especially older, tories to sit on their hands than would be the case in warmer weather. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 8, 2023 9:04:04 GMT
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.htmlMore than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.
Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.
But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU. Ah yes, that old annoying and persistent phenomenon for us politicos; voters who aren't paying enough attention! It's a phenomenon as old as the hills, really. Pondering why this might be has occupied us all on this forum for as long as I've been paying visits to it. I suppose it comes back to that focus group concept of "cut-through". A terrible corpospeak type word, but it does describe when a political idea or event lands with voters and stays in their collective consciousness. I suppose you could describe it as a major voting determinant. An idea or event that shifts votes and, more times than not, keeps those shifted votes where they went. I don't think these sorts of events are often related to policy announcements nor the largely navel-gazing machinations of internal party politics. For example, I'd be very surprised if many voters could name any of the pledges that Starmer has broken since he became Labour leader. Nor policy shifts his party have made over recent months. These may have significance within Labour party politics, but they percolate little beyond those confines. Do they tell us anything about what sort of PM Starmer may be? Possibly, but I'd contend again that's only a debate being had within very claustrophobic and limited circles. Voters are looking for other pieces of evidence about him, I suspect. They're probably just comparing and contrasting him with Sunak. No more no less. So, Labour's Brexit policy is a matter that sails over the heads of most voters. This applies to a lot of issues that exercise people like us but not the general public. Their salience could increase during an election campaign I suppose, but they're unlikely to sway many votes. The sorts of issues that do cut through though are usually emotional ones. Queues outside Building Societes as savers try to get their money out, 15% interest rates to prop up the pound and panicking Chancellors, notes saying the money's run out, getting Brexit done and partying Downing Street staff and politicians while people can't attend their relatives funerals. 40 day term PMs and CoE's too. I concluded long ago that emotional events tend to determine the fate of Governments, much more than arcane policy positions. Things that change hearts and minds and capture a general mood. Symbolic in many ways. Resonance dear boy, resonance. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 9:09:42 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. the strategists problem may be that there are always three groups. Those who already think their seat is lost. Those who think it is in play. And those who think it is cast iron safe. The first and last groups are likely the ones voting for latest possible date. Those in the middle have a changing composition as things get worse and they progress from safe to lost. I wonder how even the remainer mp for bexhill and battle feels in his cast iron safe conservative seat as he tells the town to welcome boat people accommodated at the former prison in the town? And explains why its great the rail ticket office will close even though the ticket machine is always breaking down. Why sewage on the beach is a price worth paying for privatisation. Why paid parking in the town is a brilliant idea. Why one of his constituents had to wait 7.5 hours for an ambulance after their gp called one. The ambulance men who eventually came were exhausted. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 9:23:20 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. Even as relatively noble a character as John Major pushed it to the max in 97 I think as did Brown more or less in 2010. It seems to be the default position for incumbents who know they are most likely to lose so yes, I expect we won't get to chuck them out until the very end of 2024 or Jan 2025. The only thing that makes me think Sunak may go earlier is that '97 and 2010 were of course Spring elections and possibly Sunak may prefer to go next summer as a winter election may cause even more disgruntled, especially older, tories to sit on their hands than would be the case in warmer weather. Older Tories are most likely to have postal votes so won't care about the weather on polling day. Sunak may think his best chance of avoiding a wipeout is a low turnout on the day. This would still be true for an election at the end of November or early December. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 9:25:32 GMT
It's something I've always been puzzled about. The idea that the figures should be weighted to have the same proportions as at a particular point in time seems to me that the polling company is almost going out of their way to make the figure constant, even when it isn't necessarily so. I think that, like many economic models, this weighting back will work, right up until it doesn't. And when it doesn't, the model comes unglued. While a slow drift away from one party might be picked up, the difference between the raw and weighted suggests that the slow drift has been more like a fast current - people moving away from Conservative (whether to another party or to Don't Know or Will Not Vote) faster than the models can accommodate i think its a fair first approximation to adjust a sample so it has the same proportion of people who say they voted a certain way at the last election as actually did. This would break down if people are disproportionately not self reporting thwmselves honestly, eg maybe if people so ashamed they voted a certain way will not now admit it. Or just dont answer pollsters. Then you might end up over representing diehard supporters The other problem is floating voters who maybe often dont vote at all. But eg brexit caused some of these to turn out. If things get really bad maybe they will be stirred to vote out a hated government. Are things really bad enough? |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 8, 2023 9:27:39 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. Even as relatively noble a character as John Major pushed it to the max in 97 I think as did Brown more or less in 2010. It seems to be the default position for incumbents who know they are most likely to lose so yes, I expect we won't get to chuck them out until the very end of 2024 or Jan 2025. The only thing that makes me think Sunak may go earlier is that '97 and 2010 were of course Spring elections and possibly Sunak may prefer to go next summer as a winter election may cause even more disgruntled, especially older, tories to sit on their hands than would be the case in warmer weather. , what I'm hearing from contacts is that Oct '24 remains most likely, more for damage limitations reasons, as a GE campaign over Christmas would be really unpopular with the electorate. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 9:28:00 GMT
Under Sadiq Khan's leadership Transport for London has joined the loony left. If I had seen this reported by anyone other than the BBC, i would not have believed it: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66119218 West End play poster banned by TfL over 'unhealthy' cake |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 9:30:45 GMT
Saw an interesting headline in todays mail.
It said there are more public charging points for electric vehicles in westminster than in six northern cities added together.
They suggested mps may have no real idea how badly electric vehicle transition is going.
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Post by technical on Jul 8, 2023 9:41:53 GMT
Dont post that often but a little info on that Uxbridge poll showing labour only gaining 3.5% on the 2019 vote. Dont know how reliable the JL Partners poll is but this seat has little in common with most other London seats. Heavy favourites with bookies but would imagine Lab not taking this for granted. The northern part is heavily traditional Con, Boris type supporters, non transient white working class tradesmen types and some professionals. Stop for a pint sometimes on way back, these places could`nt be much more different. Places like Ickenham and Hillingdon still have a village feel to them, often overhear groups of workers having a pint referring to lefties and whilst Con support is 20% down in the poll many of these will not switch to Lab but opt for fringe parties, the ULEZ issue is having some effect
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 8, 2023 9:48:41 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 9:50:40 GMT
Under Sadiq Khan's leadership Transport for London has joined the loony left. If I had seen this reported by anyone other than the BBC, i would not have believed it: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66119218 West End play poster banned by TfL over 'unhealthy' cake You trust the BBC? Their agenda these days is to bolster the government and won't be averse to subtly fanning culture wars to that end. I don't see what this has got to do with left wing politics, just sounds like a strange set rule for posters on the transport network. Any evidence Khan has anything to do with it? I didn't have you down as a Daily Mail reader type. 'Loony left'? Honestly. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 10:05:38 GMT
A winter election is always problematic for the incumbent Government
You have weather events, such as flooding, for which the Government will get the blame for any failures in response
Then the usual NHS Winter crisis, which will highlight tory failures on the NHS
Then if polling does fall on a particularly cold and wet day this may suppress the older, predominantly tory vote (obviously not those with postal votes)
Sunak may still go for one, but it may result in an even bigger meltdown
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 10:07:28 GMT
Under Sadiq Khan's leadership Transport for London has joined the loony left. If I had seen this reported by anyone other than the BBC, i would not have believed it: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66119218 West End play poster banned by TfL over 'unhealthy' cake Not only that but it shows a white man getting married to a white woman! @trevor - come off it, it's an advert for a play not for the cake for goodness sake. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 10:09:04 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 10:09:48 GMT
Dont post that often but a little info on that Uxbridge poll showing labour only gaining 3.5% on the 2019 vote. Dont know how reliable the JL Partners poll is but this seat has little in common with most other London seats. Heavy favourites with bookies but would imagine Lab not taking this for granted. The northern part is heavily traditional Con, Boris type supporters, non transient white working class tradesmen types and some professionals. Stop for a pint sometimes on way back , these places could`nt be much more different. Places like Ickenham and Hillingdon still have a village feel to them, often overhear groups of workers having a pint referring to lefties and whilst Con support is 20% down in the poll many of these will not switch to Lab but opt for fringe parties, the ULEZ issue is having some effectHopefully enough of them will be disgruntled enough to stay in the pub and make their puerile jokes and not exercise their negative influence on the rest of us. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 10:13:37 GMT
So TfL cannot tell the difference between an advertisement for a cake and an advertisement for a theatre production. It seems that both the right and the left on here have lost touch with common sense. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 10:16:53 GMT
johntel White women have been known to marry other colour people it's not some woke imaginary thing you know. Attachment Deleted
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 10:17:40 GMT
So TfL cannot tell the difference between an advertisement for a cake and an advertisement for a theatre production. It seems that both the right and the left on here have lost touch with common sense. Is this really an issue of great importance? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 8, 2023 10:21:15 GMT
My "inspired guess' is that none of us will get a vote in a general election till the bitter end - possibly Jan 25 certainly not till Winter 24 at the earliest. As I said a while back - seem to remember a lot of patronising "what do you know about it" replies. Almost like I had dared to express an opinion about cricket. (all of the above said in a spirit of gentle raillery rather than seething bitterness, you understand) I haven't changed my mind. Still think October 2024. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 10:23:28 GMT
Under Sadiq Khan's leadership Transport for London has joined the loony left. If I had seen this reported by anyone other than the BBC, i would not have believed it: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-66119218 West End play poster banned by TfL over 'unhealthy' cake Not only that but it shows a white man getting married to a white woman! @trevor - come off it, it's an advert for a play not for the cake for goodness sake. Really? |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 10:24:38 GMT
Dont post that often but a little info on that Uxbridge poll showing labour only gaining 3.5% on the 2019 vote. Dont know how reliable the JL Partners poll is but this seat has little in common with most other London seats. Heavy favourites with bookies but would imagine Lab not taking this for granted. The northern part is heavily traditional Con, Boris type supporters, non transient white working class tradesmen types and some professionals. Stop for a pint sometimes on way back , these places could`nt be much more different. Places like Ickenham and Hillingdon still have a village feel to them, often overhear groups of workers having a pint referring to lefties and whilst Con support is 20% down in the poll many of these will not switch to Lab but opt for fringe parties, the ULEZ issue is having some effectFor people on this board who don't live nearby (I live in the next-door Borough) it can be difficult to understand that there are parts of Greater London that still have a village feel to them, Ickenham and especially Harefield, both within the constituency, are two of them. As technical writes, the ULEZ issue is having an effect in this election with even the Labour candidate coming out against the speed with which it is being introduced. I still expect a Labour win, but with a much smaller swing than in the other by-elections on the same day. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 10:28:09 GMT
johntel White women have been known to marry other colour people it's not some woke imaginary thing you know. View Attachment You clearly don't appreciate that the play is about an Italian-American wedding as would be obvious to anyone who looked at the original link. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 10:31:19 GMT
leftieliberalThis is actually a rare occasion where I can't get excited about cake.
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Post by alec on Jul 8, 2023 10:32:42 GMT
Just as Brexiters couldn't tell us what leaving the EU would mean in practical terms, until they completely botched it up and the disaster was clear for all to see, those same Brexiters can't tell us what rejoining would mean in practice because it needs a negotiation, and no-one knows what the outcome of that would be.
The EU might quite like to have a UK on board, now that the anti-European boil has been lanced and the loons ad fruitcakes have been exposed for the blowhards they are, but we don't know for sure how many concessions they might be prepared to make to bring a weakened and chastened UK back into the fold.
So anyone - on here, or in the press - who says rejoining would mean X,Y or Z with certainty is just talking through their hat.
I think a willing UK is likely to get a better deal than many think, as we are still an economy with great potential and with a world view that chimes with many of the northern EU states, so we still have the potential for some support in there for rejoining. But I don't know for sure.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 8, 2023 10:40:23 GMT
So TfL cannot tell the difference between an advertisement for a cake and an advertisement for a theatre production. It seems that both the right and the left on here have lost touch with common sense. Perhaps johntel and yourself should read the TfL advertising policy link I provided. If the theatre production company had read the rules before paying for the adverts they could have avoided having to pay for new adverts without HFSS products in them* IIRC the Met Police also took a strict line on cakes (birthday cakes in their case). Although Durham Police took a different view on beers+curry. Rules are rules and not knowing the rules or hoping they are interpreted in way that suits you is no excuse. If you don't care about the obesity crisis then that IMO puts you/Johntel in with the La-La-Libertarian lot - noting there are a lot of those types on the CON benches. IMO it is not a Left-Right issue but the 'common sense' approach is IMO to see a problem (eg obesity crisis) and take action to deal with it. As I stated then a ban on adverts of HFSS products is only one small piece in the battle against obesity but I support Khan and TfL for going ahead with their ban and adopting a strict approach. Given Streeting seems to support a 'preventative' approach to healthcare then I hope LAB implement a nationwide ban on advertising of HFSS products when they take over. Reeves will also be keen given the ££ impact: Obese patients cost NHS twice as much as those with healthy weight, study saysAverage of £1,375 spent annually on heavier patients as government faces scrutiny for policy failureswww.theguardian.com/society/2023/may/18/obese-patients-cost-nhs-twice-much-healthy-weight-study
"If everyone were a healthy weight, the study suggested, the NHS would save nearly £14bn annually."
* I expect most people are aware of 'product placement' within TV/film/theatre? and whilst I doubt that was the case with the wedding cake then if you're going to start to be subjective on implementing the rules then I expect you'd start to get a lot more people saying "oh, it was an advert for a play - not the HFSS, obesity causing product that we put in the advert". |
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 10:51:48 GMT
johntel White women have been known to marry other colour people it's not some woke imaginary thing you know. View Attachment That's a very stereotypical photo of a woman in a white dress marrying a man in a suit and tie! Women have been known to marry other women you know. I'll PM you an Amazon link for an ironometer. |
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Post by graham on Jul 8, 2023 10:58:54 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. It will not be as late as Jan25 - which would require an election campaign over the Xmas/New Year period with Dissolution by mid-December 24. October 24 is much more likely. |
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Post by graham on Jul 8, 2023 11:02:30 GMT
steve As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can. Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents. I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery. Even as relatively noble a character as John Major pushed it to the max in 97 I think as did Brown more or less in 2010. It seems to be the default position for incumbents who know they are most likely to lose so yes, I expect we won't get to chuck them out until the very end of 2024 or Jan 2025. The only thing that makes me think Sunak may go earlier is that '97 and 2010 were of course Spring elections and possibly Sunak may prefer to go next summer as a winter election may cause even more disgruntled, especially older, tories to sit on their hands than would be the case in warmer weather. Major could actually have held the 97 Election two or three weeks later than the date chosen - May 1st. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 11:03:45 GMT
IMO that is not 'loony left' but sensible, evidence based, changes aimed at reducing obesity. I'm personally disappointed that CON HMG has delayed the national changes*. Amongst all the other crises in England then we have an obesity crisis and while it might seem churlish to some to ban an advert showing a wedding cake then I'm glad that TfL are being strict in implementing their policy to tackle obesity. the problem is junk food sells because it tastes really good and is convenient. They dont need to advertise to sell it in general, it is probably more about fighting over market share. So advertising bans wont do much good. Banning advertising might help them make more profits from it as they wont have to compete by advertising. Makes it a bit more of a cartel. |
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