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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 8, 2023 16:36:23 GMT
It is very easy to lose the trust of others; far harder to regain it. With the EU already having trouble with recalcitrant members like Hungary and Poland it is very difficult to see them welcoming another. I expect them to demand both immediate acceptance of Schengen and replacement of the £ with the € as conditions of re-joining. Losing control of the currency that a Government borrows in is not to be taken lightly as countries like Greece and Italy have found. Re joining the Euro and EC Membership. I believe this is a fair explanation: ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/" Do new members have to join the euro?
Apart from Denmark, which has a permanent opt out, all current EU member states are expected to join the euro – although this depends on meeting certain economic criteria and there is no set timetable in which they have to do so. Countries can, therefore, join the EU before joining the euro. For instance, six of the 13 countries that have joined the EU since 2004 have still yet to join the single currency. There are four criteria that member states have to meet to do so: keeping inflation low and stable, ensuring public debt and the deficit are within EU rules, keeping interest rates low and tying the national currency to the euro for at least two years without serious issues, such as needing to devalue. Politically, there would be substantial pressure on new member states to join the euro, not least as they would have joined the EU knowing eurozone membership was an expectation. Having said that, once countries have become EU member states there is no mechanism to force them to join the euro nor to sanction them if they fail to do so." That final sentence is the part to bear in mind. There is no mechanism to force member States to join the Euro. So when someone claims that the UK would be 'forced' to join the Euro, the implication is that new and different rules would be created to treat the UK differently from the other non-Euro, EU Member States. That's just the opinion of an academic. The reality of re-joining the EU is we would have to subject ourselves to whatever terms the existing members required. If you don't believe that, just look at what happened when we first joined the Common Market and were forced to accept the Common Fisheries policy that had been agreed by the Six Countries not long before. The EU members might very well feel that compliance with Schengen and joining the Euro were essential to demonstrate the UK's commitment to the EU www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/article-49-rejoining-euThe UK would also need to secure the support of all member states to open and conclude accession talks. Considering the UK’s historical reluctance to integrate with the EU fully, this may be a concern to the bloc. The UK would also need to secure the support of MEPs.
Any country dissatisfied with the prospect of the UK as a member state could veto membership, as France did when the UK applied to become a member of the European Economic Community in 1963 and 1967. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 16:36:34 GMT
johntel That's the last time I bought a tie incidentally other than one covered with flying hippos, I thought the grey one was preferable. 😁 I guess that since you saw the light you're more often seen in beard and sandals with a pint of real ale in your hands?  |
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 16:41:01 GMT
Ah, just read your comment about your hair looking like a bog brush, so that confirms it  |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 8, 2023 16:47:42 GMT
Just had the unfortunate experience of catching the Spectator cover while at the shops.
'Why Europe riots'..
One of it's English exceptionalist, Europhobe best.
Interestingly the Dutch and German press have been full of articles about why riots like those in France don't happen in those countries, so a European phenomenon clearly they are not. And I guess what happened here in 2011 and in decades previous were somehow not riots or have the just forgotten about those?
What a fact free rag.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 17:02:53 GMT
Emphasises the point about how far we have fallen
U.K. 10 year Bond Yield 4.65%
Greece 10 year Bond Yield 3.99%
Greece can borrow money in the international money markets cheaper than we can
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 17:17:01 GMT
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Post by jimjam on Jul 8, 2023 18:00:19 GMT
Back from Selby (Tadcaster actually).
Told on arrival just a hundred or so votes in it in Labs favour but it was apparent after a few doors answered in a leafy area that that was just a guard against complacency comment to activists.
Nailed on Lab gain for me and with a comfortable margin.
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Post by jib on Jul 8, 2023 18:39:19 GMT
My club 18-30 visa idea from a few months ago was quite serious and would be a popular concept, plus an end to the 180 day rule for those who can self support. I doubt the EU will bother with the current Government on the assumption a pragmatic Labour administration is imminent. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 8, 2023 18:40:14 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w The combination of water retention and potassium sparing meds meant I blew up like a balloon, most of my hair fell out as well. As I've recovered and probably didn't need the medication beyond three years ago ( thanks covid end to routine checks) I'm seeing promising features on the weight front my hairs growing back but it looks like a bog brush, still work in progress. Ok, so that sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole, given my very cursory knowledge of such things. I get that heart issues can cause water retention, and you might take potassium sparing meds to reduce the water retention; wound up trying to figure out if the potassium sparing meds might cause other forms of weight gain or some other heart meds might (e.g. beta blockers which can cause weight gain by slowing down the metabolism etc.). Anyways, glad that you seem to be recovering well Steve! |
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Post by graham on Jul 8, 2023 18:42:50 GMT
Back from Selby (Tadcaster actually). Told on arrival just a hundred or so votes in it in Labs favour but it was apparent after a few doors answered in a leafy area that that was just a guard against complacency comment to activists. Nailed on Lab gain for me and with a comfortable margin. 'Just a hundred or so votes in it.' That is a really daft thing to say in that there is no way that at constituency level canvassers or campaigners can measure the state of play with that degree of accuracy. It is the equivalent of claiming in a local election contest that there are only five votes separating candidates on the basis of canvass returns etc. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 8, 2023 18:57:37 GMT
Resonance dear boy, resonance. I think there's also the idea that it's time to give the other lot a chance. And also my theory that the natural maximum length of a party being in power is around 13 years, with Major's narrow win the only post-war exception. So we had Tory 1951-64, Thatcher 1979-82, Blair/Brown 1997-2010 and now Old Uncle Tom Cameron and all 2010-2024(?). This could be something to do with generations. e.g. assuming most people become at least vaguely aware of politics aged about 14, that would mean that the cohort aged 18-27 have never known another party in power and want to give someone else a go. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 19:03:29 GMT
You may need to get out of your bubble a bit more often. " beyond party members" is the real world where people try to cope with life's dificulties and think most politicians haven't a clue what those are and wouldn't know what to do about them if they did. Given I spent several weeks in April tramping the streets for the local elections I suspect I have spoken to many more 'real people' than you have recently. How do you know the were "real". Only joking I suppose-in context of this discussion-how representative of the 98.5% of voters who are not members of a political party were they? - the 98.5% who you complained don't spend time putting up political posters. I don't want to re-start old arguments, and I realise that party activists are a key part of the ability of political parties to exist. But they are a vanishingly small minority of the voting population . "TRust in the government" has halved to 20% ish in the last 35 years. 60% believe "politicians don't care". ** ** "Political disengagement in the UK: Who is disengaged?" HoC Library November 2022 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 8, 2023 19:18:41 GMT
I assume you're joking. Just in case you're not what on earth has 'tackling obesity' got to do with TfL, or any organisation for that matter? |
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Post by James E on Jul 8, 2023 19:20:12 GMT
Opinium
Latest poll for
@observeruk
Labour lead at 15 points.
Labour: 43% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+2)
Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 6% (-1)
Reform UK: 8% (+1)
(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)
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Post by mercian on Jul 8, 2023 19:25:52 GMT
This wouldn't satisfy everyone, but it would possibly help people to understand that there is no outright right to free movement. There is a right to work, but not necessarily to reside. If the UK government had ever had a proper border policy, with proper recording of who was arriving and leaving, we might have been able to better control EU migration, but as with so many things EU, the bigger problem was the incompetence at Westminster, rather than the domination of Brussels. And what makes you think that would change? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 8, 2023 19:34:30 GMT
Very unlikely I suspect. It is simply not an issue on the radar of many voters now- and has been massively overridden by other issues. It's still an overriding issue with most people I know. Many of us coming of age in the nineties took it for granted and felt like we had been robbed. Literally. I mix with people of all ages - chess clubs aren't just for old fogies! I can honestly say that I don't think I've heard Brexit mentioned in conversation for several years. |
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Post by James E on Jul 8, 2023 19:36:42 GMT
I assume you're joking. Just in case you're not what on earth has 'tackling obesity' got to do with TfL, or any organisation for that matter? If people slim down then this helps TfL, because then they can fit more of them onto the trains.  |
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Post by mercian on Jul 8, 2023 19:39:53 GMT
Any country dissatisfied with the prospect of the UK as a member state could veto membership, as France did when the UK applied to become a member of the European Economic Community in 1963 and 1967. Not like the French to do us a favour. Let's hope they do it again if there ever is a next time. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 20:03:54 GMT
I assume you're joking. Just in case you're not what on earth has 'tackling obesity' got to do with TfL, or any organisation for that matter? Well I think the Obesity Health Alliance might disagree with you on that mercian obesityhealthalliance.org.uk/ |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 20:05:01 GMT
jibIt isn't a reciprocal arrangement that's suggested , simply restoring the freedom of movement to the UK of some European union citizens. Don't worry your theft of our freedom of movement to the European union will remain intact.
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Post by johntel on Jul 8, 2023 20:11:15 GMT
It's still an overriding issue with most people I know. Many of us coming of age in the nineties took it for granted and felt like we had been robbed. Literally. I mix with people of all ages - chess clubs aren't just for old fogies! I can honestly say that I don't think I've heard Brexit mentioned in conversation for several years. Chess players are capable of holding a conversation? Not in my experience and I used to be one. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 20:21:39 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 20:39:28 GMT
Back from Selby (Tadcaster actually). Told on arrival just a hundred or so votes in it in Labs favour but it was apparent after a few doors answered in a leafy area that that was just a guard against complacency comment to activists. Nailed on Lab gain for me and with a comfortable margin. I don't think you're renowned for histrionics, jimjam, so that sounds quite encouraging from a LAB perspective. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 8, 2023 20:43:22 GMT
Opinium Latest poll for @observeruk Labour lead at 15 points. Labour: 43% (-1) Conservatives: 28% (+2) Lib Dems: 9% (n/c) SNP: 3% (n/c) Green: 6% (-1) Reform UK: 8% (+1) (Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week) Sunak's recent interview with Aggers on Test Match Special the reason for the uptick, maybe? A Long Room bounce in other words. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 20:46:18 GMT
From an article about twitter and threads: “ One of the reasons I never got round to signing up to Twitter was that I feared I might end up arguing with strangers late into the night about things that didn’t really matter that much to me. After all, that’s what other people – particularly, but not exclusively, men – seemed to do.” Sounds familiar. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 8, 2023 20:57:30 GMT
colin
I think you've got the wrong end of the stick and gone off on a hobby horse tangent. If I understood pjw1961 correctly, he wasn't "complaining" at all about people who no longer put political posters and signs up at elections. He was bemoaning, I think correctly, the increased toxicity in our politics that now deter people from potentially upsetting their neighbours by signalling their support for a specific political party at election time. I agree with him that this is sad and reduces the sense of occasion, and even the fun, of electioneering.
Why this observation led to a discussion about "bubbles", "real people" and party "activists" ( yet again) I do not know.
Another example of how a sensible comment quickly becomes the trigger for a much less illuminating discussion.
Which is a pity.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 21:08:33 GMT
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Post by bedknobsandboomstick on Jul 8, 2023 21:15:58 GMT
Its 11% DEFINATELY plan to vote Tory. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 21:19:48 GMT
It’s 11% DEFINITELY plan to vote Tory.
Which seems an astonishingly high percentage.
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Post by alec on Jul 8, 2023 21:24:44 GMT
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