pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 20:37:08 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip poll JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet.
Full poll figures.
Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%
Very disappointed that Binface will split the Loony vote. ☹ A difference is that Alan Hope and Count Binface are only pretending. Piers Corbyn is an actual loony. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 20:40:10 GMT
Do the Birmingham bears shit in the woods? Or is that just Brummies? There aren't any woods. Surely everyone knows that Birmingham is a barren wasteland of abandoned factories and derelict houses? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 20:40:23 GMT
Thanks, PJ, for giving me some distraction from this morning's session at Headingley! The creation of the one day cricket only entity known as Birmingham Bears was, I think, a marketing tool to promote T20 cricket in the city. Edgbaston being a suburb of Birmingham and most, but not all, of the Warwickshire members and spectators hailing from the city. They've always been a Brum-centric county cricket team but when I started watching cricket in the 60s, they used to play at outgrounds in Coventry, Nuneaton, Rugby and Stratford. There are some very strong cricket clubs in Warwickshire like Leamington and Kenilworth too. I don't quite understand why they don't take cricket to these populous towns elsewhere in the country and foster potential members. In Coventry's case, a very large city too. I do know quite a few Warwickshire members of my age and older who were outraged by the name change and don't recognise it. Mind you, they tend not to watch T20 cricket anyway. As for cricket generally, a sad day for me. Josh Tongue and Dillon Pennington leaving Worcester to go to Notts next season. Jack Haynes on his way soon, no doubt. The football-isation of cricket continues apace. There's also the point that the 'Birmingham Bears' aren't Warwickshire. Like the other franchises they are mostly a team of mercenaries who happen to play at Edgbaston. I don't know the business relationship - it might be that Warwickshire own them but they are a separate entity. Every other county is still using the county name. Only Warwickshire are calling themselves after a city. www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/english-twenty20/table |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 20:41:32 GMT
Very disappointed that Binface will split the Loony vote. ☹ A difference is that Alan Hope and Count Binface are only pretending. Piers Corbyn is an actual loony. I hadn't even noticed he was standing until you pointed it out! The others might as well stand down! |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 20:47:53 GMT
I can remember as a child going to watch Warwickshire playing at the Courtaulds Ground in Coventry. Sadly, I understand the ground is derelict these days. I think they may have played occasionally at Cadburys cricket ground too. Got a 50 there once, Pete. Best teas on the circuit. Good wicket too. Cadburys cakes served by the pallet load! Only downside was the Cadbury family, devout Quakers, had made Bournville an alcohol free zone. We had to travel a mile or so to the nearest pub after the game. Cotteridge I think, maybe Selly Oak. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 20:53:04 GMT
Do the Birmingham bears shit in the woods? Or is that just Brummies? There aren't any woods. Surely everyone knows that Birmingham is a barren wasteland of abandoned factories and derelict houses? I was on with Gene Vincent for a week (singing with my brother) in 1969 and it seemed very nice. I’m sure I spotted a tree somewhere. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 21:00:20 GMT
I think they may have played occasionally at Cadburys cricket ground too. Got a 50 there once, Pete. Best teas on the circuit. Good wicket too. Cadburys cakes served by the pallet load! Only downside was the Cadbury family, devout Quakers, had made Bournville an alcohol free zone. We had to travel a mile or so to the nearest pub after the game. Cotteridge I think, maybe Selly Oak. Congrats on the 50! I can authoritatively state that the British Oak in Stirchley was the nearest pub because I walked there every lunchtime when I worked at Cadbury's. It was before I had a car. Later on the Cadbury's club served booze. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 21:01:37 GMT
There aren't any woods. Surely everyone knows that Birmingham is a barren wasteland of abandoned factories and derelict houses? I was on with Gene Vincent for a week (singing with my brother) in 1969 and it seemed very nice. I’m sure I spotted a tree somewhere. Unlikely, Mr Miser. Anyway, you told me you that you were in a drug haze for most of the 60s. Seeing anything green in Birmingham in those days was very likely to have been an LSD trip. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 21:02:51 GMT
Pete,
Near the famous bowling alley, the Stirchley Bowl, no doubt.
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 7, 2023 21:06:41 GMT
Very disappointed that Binface will split the Loony vote. ☹ A difference is that Alan Hope and Count Binface are only pretending. Piers Corbyn is an actual loony. Jeez!! I thought they were talking about Jeremy!!! |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 21:12:48 GMT
crossbat11About half a mile away I'd say (Stirchley's a big place😁). I used to go bowling there back in the day. I haven't been over that way for a while but on Google Streetview it's been demolished. Probably for housing but I don't know.
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 21:13:28 GMT
RafwanWell he is too of course
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2023 21:17:33 GMT
Jib just can't help himself it's like a self deluding Pavlovian dog the words liberal democrat elicit a morbid desire to post bollocks. Meanwhile other self delusional brexitanians at the Daily Express held a poll it didn't go quite to plan. 70% voted to say the U.K. should negotiate to rejoin the single market. youtu.be/rqeTBUIaEE4The Express has an explanation for the " wrong" result, remainers voted in it. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 21:52:33 GMT
A difference is that Alan Hope and Count Binface are only pretending. Piers Corbyn is an actual loony. Jeez!! I thought they were talking about Jeremy!!! I don't think Bell (Ind) is that Bell (Ind) either  |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 7, 2023 22:34:59 GMT
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.htmlMore than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.
Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.
But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 0:21:17 GMT
An update from the mean streets of Somerton and Frome where our intrepid local correspondent reports on the by-election activity as excitement reaches fever pitch, with less than a fortnight to go until polling day.
Having driven around a fair proportion of the constituency, I can report the following:
LDEM posters: a smattering, mainly in the gardens of substantial rustic cottages.
CON posters: 0. Not a one. This might be significant, as even when CON got a damn good shoeing last year in the Somerset Council elections, there was a scattering of CON posters, usually in the gardens of enormous houses.
LAB posters: 0. Not such a surprise.
Other posters: 0. Also not much of a surprise.
Campaign literature received:
LDEM: 1
CON: 1
LAB: 0
Christian People's Alliance (yes, really): 1
Others: 0
Candidate visits: 0
So there you have it. Apathy clearly well ahead.
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Post by EmCat on Jul 8, 2023 0:26:26 GMT
That's Labour's (equal) highest lead with Savanta for 5 months - or 20 of their polls. Looking at their figures over that time, they generally show Labour leads around 3-4 points lower than the average. In each case, these are then re-weighted to more closely resemble GE2019 (table 12); it looks like they do make allowance for the demographic age shift, which alone reduces the Con vote and increases Lab by about 2 points, and/or new voters and non voters.. Needless to say, the re-weighting has a sigificant effect on the headline figures: that 43/31 poll from 25 June was 53/25 in the raw, unadjusted figures, while the other 3 polls show Labour 26 or 27% ahead in the raw figures. savanta.com/published-polls/It's something I've always been puzzled about. The idea that the figures should be weighted to have the same proportions as at a particular point in time seems to me that the polling company is almost going out of their way to make the figure constant, even when it isn't necessarily so. I think that, like many economic models, this weighting back will work, right up until it doesn't. And when it doesn't, the model comes unglued. While a slow drift away from one party might be picked up, the difference between the raw and weighted suggests that the slow drift has been more like a fast current - people moving away from Conservative (whether to another party or to Don't Know or Will Not Vote) faster than the models can accommodate |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 4:55:28 GMT
Day 500 of war criminal Putin's 7 day special operation in Ukraine.
Having killed tens of thousands of his own teenage population in the carnage of war with tens of thousands more injured and fleeing Russia Putin's invaders now consist of older men dying in similar horrific numbers.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians and those defending their own right to be free have died, billions in damage has been caused and Putin's reckless narcissistic insanity has endangered food supplies to some of the poorest countries in the world and moved us all closer to nuclear Armageddon.
The right wing media needless to say lead with the vital news that an unnamed BBC presenter might have some smutty pictures.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 6:22:20 GMT
This is sensible by Hunt
Hard to justify tax cuts while at the same time saying you can't give public sector workers below inflation pay rises because of the worry of inflation
Of course that will not satisfy the many tory MPs who will continue to cause problems in the background
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 8, 2023 6:23:43 GMT
An update from the mean streets of Somerton and Frome where our intrepid local correspondent reports on the by-election activity as excitement reaches fever pitch, with less than a fortnight to go until polling day. Having driven around a fair proportion of the constituency, I can report the following: LDEM posters: a smattering, mainly in the gardens of substantial rustic cottages. CON posters: 0. Not a one. This might be significant, as even when CON got a damn good shoeing last year in the Somerset Council elections, there was a scattering of CON posters, usually in the gardens of enormous houses. LAB posters: 0. Not such a surprise. Other posters: 0. Also not much of a surprise. Campaign literature received: LDEM: 1 CON: 1 LAB: 0 Christian People's Alliance (yes, really): 1 Others: 0 Candidate visits: 0 So there you have it. Apathy clearly well ahead. You may be right about the apathy but I'm not sure you can judge from posters. Public displays of political affiliation seem to have gone out of fashion. It is very hard to get anyone beyond actual party members to put up a poster these days. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 6:36:27 GMT
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.htmlMore than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.
Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.
But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU. question is, if they discover labour does not plan to rejoin, will the labour vote drop sharply? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 6:37:12 GMT
He went to the World Cup in 1982 instead of Alan Devonshire. When Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan (and Steve Coppell) got injured we all saw how pedestrian a player Rix was. I'd have loved to see Devonshire have a crack. He was a great player, and I don't use the word lightly. Would have been lovely to see him in Spain. Not to be. I guess they picked Rix more as a more direct replacement for Trev, who looked like he may be out for the whole tournament, and all but was. I have a friend who had spells as a full-back at two clubs - he always said that Devo terrified him more than any other player - he knew what he'd do - invariably cut inside on a full back's weaker foot but almost always go past his man. Until a Wigan player (so many reasons to dislike that club) put him out of the game for a couple of years - he was never the same again after that - he was on target to become a player remembered outside of my club as well as in it. In our cup-winning season one paper astutely said he would become a world class player. I have no doubt that that was right. Anyway, along with Billy Bonds my favourite ever player - yes, even above Brooking - that shows how highly I rate him. Anyway, the cricket's giving us a bit of hope so I won't mention it - as we all know what probably happens next. A mate of mine ran into Rix a couple of years ago and as I always bang on about choosing Rix over Devonshire in 1982 he brought up the subject with Rix himself. To his credit, Rix agreed with him. I always thought it was more of a Don Howe decision than a Ron Greenwood one. All those might-have-beens but that decision still rankles years later. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 8, 2023 7:50:44 GMT
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-starmer-rejoin-eu-poll-b2371236.htmlMore than four in 10 Britons believe Labour intends to reverse Brexit and rejoin the EU, a shock new poll has found.
Sir Keir Starmer has been at pains to clarify Labour’s position of keeping the UK out of the bloc – repeatedly ruling out membership of Brussels’ single market and customs union.
But Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found 41 per cent of voters still think that Labour policy is to take Britain back inside the EU.Quite a remarkable polling result, showing that a large minority of the population don't even know Labour's policy on the EU. Link to R&W poll:
Voters Are Unaware of Labour’s Current Position on the EU, But Does it Matter?redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/voters-are-unaware-of-labours-current-position-on-the-eu-but-does-it-matter/Short answer is 'no'. As they point out "Underlying all of these figures, however, is the relative unimportance of Brexit as an electoral issue"Starmer was the poster boy of Remain back in the day and given how many U-turns he has done as LOTO it is possible some people think he'll U-turn on his U-turns when PM (ie 'O' turns)? A somewhat strange way to perhaps still, for now, be able to be seen as whatever people hope he will be?? One thing for sure is he isn't an actual CON MP and that will probably be enough whoever was LOTO (and thankfully the timing is such that the Far-Left missed their opportunity) I dunno if most of the Arch-Rejoin fanatics think Starmer (and/or Davey) will eventually move/return to a Rejoin policy but an article from Independent (quoting the pro-EU 'UK in a Changing Europe') highlighting it wouldn't be easy and the longer we leave it the harder Rejoin would get.
Why reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU could take a decade and cost the UK an extra £5.6bn a yearinews.co.uk/news/politics/reversing-brexit-rejoining-eu-cost-uk-take-decade-2461234My guess is Starmer isn't a fool and knows Rejoin.EU would be as divisive as Leave.EU turned out to be; would be 'sans vetoes' (including the ££ one); and would take 'a decade'(ish). Whilst few people care about the issue anyway then some polling on what people think the terms of Rejoin might be would be insightful (and perhaps one of LAB HQs focus groups has asked that and decided to leave the lid on that jar of worms?) The roles have reversed - so do Rejoiners now believe in 'Cakeism'? PS Of course if the 'Purple Passport' Arch-Rejoin fanatics do actually want to Rejoin.EU then the article above shows why they should stop just moaning about it and ensure it becomes policy for LAB (or LDEM, maybe Greens?) sooner. Scots have SNP but for Scotland to Rejoin.EU they first need to Leave.UK which 'could take a decade and cost Scotland about £10bn a year' (based on how much they get from English taxpayers every year) |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2023 7:57:04 GMT
With the continuing catastrophic polling for the Tories anyone want to hazard a guess on election date.
Hanging on to the last minute in a bizarre hope that somehow things will get better or the Labour party actually comes up with a policy and it isn't popular must have an appeal but it risks the electorate being so pissed off with these useless chancers that they are consigned permanently to the political dustbin.
Or go this year when some of the damage they've engineered has yet to fully impact and where they get to blame the incoming government for next year's disasters.
This way the collapse might be akin to the 1997 defeat but around 150-200 Tories still get to be the official opposition rather than competing with the Ulster unionists for fifth place.
If their synapses were functioning they should choose this autumn I suspect however that hubris and casual stupidity will mean they hang on to the bitter end.
January '25 anyone?
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 8, 2023 7:59:42 GMT
PPS to above. Folks should obviously read the R&W poll and Independent article in full (and wade through all the stuff on 'UK in a changing Europe's' website if they want to. However I'll pluck out one chart which is similar to how some folks view Leave.UK in Scotland perhaps? Note 'A party that prioritises other issues first' gets the highest % (ie a lot of people who might want to Rejoin.EU are 'maybe later' types? - noting that the longer we leave it the harder it would get). The 29% have no one in E(&W?) to vote for so will perhaps 'hope' Starmer does an 'O-turn'?? Also the 24% might actually believe Starmer's current position to 'Make Brexit Work'?? Then the 31% (and 16% DK) who are OK with Starmer as he's not a Rejoin fanatic and realises there are a lot more important issues than plunging the country back into the divisive Brexit issues that sucked out all the political bandwidth in UK from early 2016 to late 2019. Attachment Deleted |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 8, 2023 8:14:20 GMT
Re the tory polling performance
During the first few months of the year Sunak's approval ratings were significantly better than the tory party itself which to some extent buoyed up polling for the tories
However the more people see of him the more his approval rating falls
I think that's down to two reasons
1. His robotic performance when announcing things and in taking questions
2. His weakness in dealing with problems in the tory party, including, but not limited to, failing to stand up for the Privelleges Committee and making clear the behaviour of Johnson and co was unacceptable
He comes across as a follower, not a leader
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 8, 2023 8:23:42 GMT
steve
As for the likely election date, I think, as you suggest, that the bitter end of January 2025 now seems probable. When it becomes obvious that all is lost, possibly by about mid 2024 when even the most arch McCawberites will have given up all hope of something turning up, Sunak will decide to eke out his Chequers and Downing Street tenancy for as long as he can.
Defiantly and stubbornly too, as he surveys the burning deck around him. The downside for the Tory Party is that while they will have maximised their term and delayed the ultimate evil, in their minds anyway, of a Labour Government, the electorate may have saved up their most fearful beating for when they at last get an opportunity to choose who governs them. A vengeful electorate is not good for the incumbents.
I get the feeling that many voters have felt for some time that they should have been able to exercise this choice by now and have had the opportunity to put this zombie government out of both theirs and our misery.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 8, 2023 8:38:43 GMT
You may be right about the apathy but I'm not sure you can judge from posters. Public displays of political affiliation seem to have gone out of fashion. It is very hard to get anyone beyond actual party members to put up a poster these days. Does this not suggest a general distaste by all voters with all parties? |
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Post by athena on Jul 8, 2023 8:45:18 GMT
It's always worth remembering how little attention most people pay to politics, most of the time - and that about a the third of the electorate doesn't consider voting worthwhile. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2023 8:49:15 GMT
My "inspired guess' is that none of us will get a vote in a general election till the bitter end - possibly Jan 25 certainly not till Winter 24 at the earliest. As I said a while back - seem to remember a lot of patronising "what do you know about it" replies. Almost like I had dared to express an opinion about cricket. (all of the above said in a spirit of gentle raillery rather than seething bitterness, you understand) |
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