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Post by davem on Jul 7, 2023 16:17:41 GMT
"Highest Labour % since the start of March" Westminster voting intention: LAB: 51% (+3) CON: 25% (-1) LDEM: 8% (-) REF: 5% (-2) GRN: 5% (-) via @omnisis, 06 - 07 Jul When you do the seat projections we are back into total Meltdown territory, that is before they put Mercer on the TV again. Twitter would appear to no longer let me post links anymore! |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 16:32:02 GMT
Tories struggling for third place… and might get overtaken by “others” as well as SNP. Fifth would be great!
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 16:42:04 GMT
I'll forgive that map being published three times!  PMQs - Leader of the Opposition Sir Ed gets to ask Sir Keir six questions, hee hee. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 7, 2023 16:46:03 GMT
This breakdown of the figures by age seems realistic to me, suggests the poll is probably about right
"@beyond_Topline
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip poll from
@jlpartnerspolls
has a *much* more credible age breakdown than the Ashcroft poll did:
18-24
Lab: 61%
Con: 14%
25-34
Lab: 41%
Con: 22%
35-44
Lab: 59%
Con: 18%
45-54
Lab: 43%
Con: 27%
55-64
Lab: 23%
Con: 54%
65+
Lab: 28%
Con: 55%"
Overall result
LAB 41% (+3)
CON 33% (-20)
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 7, 2023 16:56:00 GMT
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 7, 2023 17:13:04 GMT
Graham Rix. Forgot about him. He went to the World Cup in 1982 instead of Alan Devonshire. When Trevor Brooking & Kevin Keegan (and Steve Coppell) got injured we all saw how pedestrian a player Rix was. I'd have loved to see Devonshire have a crack. He was a great player, and I don't use the word lightly. Would have been lovely to see him in Spain. Not to be. I guess they picked Rix more as a more direct replacement for Trev, who looked like he may be out for the whole tournament, and all but was. I have a friend who had spells as a full-back at two clubs - he always said that Devo terrified him more than any other player - he knew what he'd do - invariably cut inside on a full back's weaker foot but almost always go past his man. Until a Wigan player (so many reasons to dislike that club) put him out of the game for a couple of years - he was never the same again after that - he was on target to become a player remembered outside of my club as well as in it. In our cup-winning season one paper astutely said he would become a world class player. I have no doubt that that was right. Anyway, along with Billy Bonds my favourite ever player - yes, even above Brooking - that shows how highly I rate him. Anyway, the cricket's giving us a bit of hope so I won't mention it - as we all know what probably happens next. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 7, 2023 17:14:10 GMT
RUK tied for 3rd place in latest YG and there has been a few polls where they are ahead of LDEM. Not our polity but YG have an MRP and seat prediction for the upcoming Spain election. Going to be close and quite possibly be a "messy" result where no one can form a govt* but.. "In terms of seats, our model shows that a right-wing coalition government of PP and Vox could be formed by the barest of margins possible, highlighting just how close this election is"Vox are 'Far-Right' and used to be 'toxic' but then so did the Far-Right 'Swedish Democrats'. Elsewhere in Europe then: AfD are now in 2nd place in Germany at 20%+: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_German_federal_electionMeloni's 'Brothers of Italy' stay in pole position, a few % above their GE result: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election* I'm not sure how the various NATS would split. Some are LoC, some are RoC. It's quite possible the NATS are Kingmakers but I'm not sure what their demands would be. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 7, 2023 17:14:55 GMT
British nationalists: Scotland's drug deaths are a disgrace.
Scottish Government: Agreed. Here are proposals on how to reduce them using proven approaches from abroad which will require the UK Government to act as well.
British nationalists: No, you can't do that.
Labour British Nationalists: It's disgraceful that the Scottish Government is making saving lives a priority.
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Post by alec on Jul 7, 2023 17:25:51 GMT
When we see these polls showing Cons vying for third party status with the SNP, everyone automatically assumes the polls are overstating things a touch, the seat model is wrong, there's bound to be some swingback, or more likely a bit of all three.
But we know that sometimes, once in a blue moon, parties do just collapse in on themselves. Europe has seen a fair bit of that in recent years. Are we so sure that the UK is immune from such eventualities? Unlike 1997, these polls are suggesting more than a chaotic retreat to the blue heartlands; the heartlands themselves are under attack and crumbling. The economic fundamentals are likely to get worse, not better, and there are no more leadership options to try, having burned through all the possibilities.
Although I'm not saying this will happen, and fully aware that the demise of the blues has been widely predicted many times before, but I've been thinking for a long time that this election is going to be a lot worse for Cons that they think.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 7, 2023 17:41:07 GMT
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Post by James E on Jul 7, 2023 17:41:15 GMT
James, Re False recall. IMO, it is definitely a thing but I wonder if the one of the drivers the produces false recall also overstates it. I am thinking of the halo affect where people for some reason who voted for someone they would rather not have (or don't want to admit to voting for) or didn't vote at all, claim even in anonymous on-line surveys that they voted differently; the net result in this case is less Tory voters acknowledging their 2019 vote. By the same token, though, there will be some non voters (perhaps a few who did vote for someone else) saying just after the election that they voted for the winning team. Responses from panelist before GEs and just after form the basis for the false recall adjustment which if I am right may be overdone. Intuitively I think the real picture would be close to the YG/Opinium numbers of retention but not quite that low, maybe high 40s or around 50%. We will never know though. I thought I would test this by checking the earliest savanta polls from this Parliament. I have also looked at three from just before Partygate in Nov-Dec 2021. There were only two Savanta polls in the first 6 months after GE2019, one in Feb 2020 and one in May. Recalled past vote in these averaged: Con 43% Lab 35% For the 3 before Partygate (19 Nov - 5 Dec 2021) it was: Con 40% Lab 37% And now the most recent 4 show: Con 40% Lab 41% |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 18:16:17 GMT
When we see these polls showing Cons vying for third party status with the SNP, everyone automatically assumes the polls are overstating things a touch, the seat model is wrong, there's bound to be some swingback, or more likely a bit of all three. But we know that sometimes, once in a blue moon, parties do just collapse in on themselves. Europe has seen a fair bit of that in recent years. Are we so sure that the UK is immune from such eventualities? Unlike 1997, these polls are suggesting more than a chaotic retreat to the blue heartlands; the heartlands themselves are under attack and crumbling. The economic fundamentals are likely to get worse, not better, and there are no more leadership options to try, having burned through all the possibilities. Although I'm not saying this will happen, and fully aware that the demise of the blues has been widely predicted many times before, but I've been thinking for a long time that this election is going to be a lot worse for Cons that they think. should this scenario come about it will be interesting to see how long it takes for the Conservatives to abandon their support for FPTP, and join in with demands for PR. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 18:48:42 GMT
So long as we can have a hard border on the M1 somewhere around Watford Gap I'll be happy. 😁 We could turn Watford Gap services into a border crossing point to collect taxes, exchange currency**, etc between the two renewed Kingdoms* of Mercia and Essex. I'm not fussy exactly where the new arbitrary line is drawn having already offered to give you Peterborough. How about I throw in everything West of the Great Ouse river as well? * You can have Charles, we'll take Wills  ** For those without a Revolut card or similar (I hear some folks still pay stupid fees to exchange currencies and happy to help fools being easily departed from their money) You might as well. Everyone knows those folks are ethnic Mercians anyway, so it'd only be a matter of time before we 'liberated' them. 😁 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 18:57:48 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip poll JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet.
Full poll figures.
Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%
Very disappointed that Binface will split the Loony vote. ☹ |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 18:58:34 GMT
Dave
I was at that 1982 World Cup in Spain. My last hurrah as a bachelor boy before getting married the following year. The rest is history, as they say.
Strange tournament format that was abandoned for 1986. England were unbeaten yet eliminated at the second group stage. Too many draws in crucial games did for us, not least against a mediocre West Germany side at the Bernebau. Interesting outside the ground that day I seem to remember. Mounted police baton charges and tear gas.
I thought Greenwood got some squad selections wrong and put too much faith in getting Brooking and Keegan fit for the later stages that never came.
With my Villa hat on, I always felt Gary Shaw, then the European Young Player of the year and European Cup winner, should have been there. Best finisher I've ever seen plying the marksman's trade. Villa fan who used to stand as a kid on the Holte End before becoming a club legend on the pitch. Career wrecked by a knee injury at the age of 24.
Not that the old football journalist Brian Glanville agreed with me. During the tournament, with England based in Bilbao, I came across him in the back streets of that Basque city in the early hours, both of us pissed. He was on his way to file his Times match report on the Spain v Northern Ireland game, I was on the way to any bar still open. I collared him and asked him why Gary Shaw wasn't there.
He replied "Because he played like a **** in the European Cup Final!"
A chance encounter and conversation I'll never forget
Happy days
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 19:03:21 GMT
@mark James O'Brien was just on talking about this. How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming. What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible. As there has not been a Mickey Mouse film for many years would young children from a war-torn country even know who he was? I don't suppose many of them go to Disneyland very often. They might be even more traumatised by a big picture of a weird creature. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 7, 2023 19:10:17 GMT
YouGov have entered the murky world of polling for the Spanish General Election on 23rd July.
PSOE/Labour - 28
PP/Conservative - 31
VOX - Populist right - 14
Sumar - Populist left coalition - 14
ERC - Catalan republican left - 2
Junts - more extreme populist cat ind. - 2
PNV - moderate Basque nationalist - 1
EH Bildu - Basque Sinn Fein - 1
BNG - moderate Galician nationalist - 1.
Seat estimates
PP 122-142
PSOE - 101-119
Vox - 39-52
Sumar - 30-40
Junts - 7-9
ERC 6-8
Bildu 5-7
PnV 3-5
BNG 1-3
So taking the mid-points of the seat estimates we have a likely parliament along the following lines (176 needed for majority):
Feijoo (PP) led coalition (PP/VOX) - 177
Sánchez (PSOE) led coalition - (PSOE, Sumar, Junts, ERC, Bildu, PNV, BNG) - 172
Doesn't quite add up as there is 1 missing. Near enough though.
Now to clarify, it's vert unlikely all of those parties would join a coalition with Pedro Sánchez, but in Spain the PM is elected by the incoming lower house (by simple majority if necessary), and there is no way any of the parties other than PP would endorse Feijoo if he were to govern even indirectly with VOX.
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 19:13:34 GMT
I would like others to watch the short attached video, it illustrates the dangers associated with a population that's routinely armed and where otherwise crimes that could be dealt with without use of firearms escalate. I would be interested to hear what others think should have happened. ( For what it's worth I would have shot the individual ) youtu.be/eux7URalQsMWow! I don't know what 'should' have happened because I don't know what the law is over there or why the individual was being pursued, but I can understand why a policeman would shoot him because he posed an imminent danger. What wasn't clear to me was whether he actually shot at the police and how he apparently disposed of the gun. |
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Post by RAF on Jul 7, 2023 19:23:31 GMT
El Pais and SER have combined to produce a daily tracker poll until 17th July (last day allowed for polling).
Their numbers as at today are not dissimilar to YouGov's
PP 31.3
PSOE 29.5
VOX 14.8
Sumar 13.4
(Other percentages not given)
Seats
PP 119-134
PSOE 107-118
VoX 38-45
Sumar 35-39
ERC 8
Junts 8
Bildu 6
PNV 5
Cup (radical pro Cat ind) 1
Canaries coalition 1
BNG 1
Empty Spain (pro rural development) 1
---
Right coalition - PP/Vox/Canaries coalition - 171
Left coalition - (all others) - 179
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 7, 2023 19:28:29 GMT
@mark James O'Brien was just on talking about this. How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming. What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible. As there has not been a Mickey Mouse film for many years would young children from a war-torn country even know who he was? I don't suppose many of them go to Disneyland very often. They might be even more traumatised by a big picture of a weird creature. Apart from spectacularly and dare I say disingenuously missing the point, I can assure you the mouse, mice including Minnie, is still a thing. My daughter still loves the Minnie mouse dress she's had since she was five. Happy cartoon animals are loved instinctively by kids the world over. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 7, 2023 19:38:58 GMT
We could turn Watford Gap services into a border crossing point to collect taxes, exchange currency**, etc between the two renewed Kingdoms* of Mercia and Essex. I'm not fussy exactly where the new arbitrary line is drawn having already offered to give you Peterborough. How about I throw in everything West of the Great Ouse river as well? * You can have Charles, we'll take Wills ** For those without a Revolut card or similar (I hear some folks still pay stupid fees to exchange currencies and happy to help fools being easily departed from their money) You might as well. Everyone knows those folks are ethnic Mercians anyway, so it'd only be a matter of time before we 'liberated' them. 😁 If it wasn't for the offshore wind farms I'd give you the whole of "North-folk" as you Mercians are closer to the Wuffing lot who we allowed to govern the Northern part of the mighty Kingdom of Essex back in the day. The fine lads and lasses of Essex have been spreading their genes freely for millennia but didn't venture West of the Great Ouse as they didn't have bridges back then and it was risky to swim across a river after a night out on the lash (although others say it was because Mercian's were all mingers). Anyway, I don't know which 'genius' decided to put some arbitrary line on the current map saying Northfolk included those West Kings Lynnians but they're a dodgy sort so you're certainly welcome to them. I'm happy to handover Andover to Mercia as well but given I'm looking to move to West Oxfordshire in a year or so, and for some reason some idiot drew the line in the wrong place and put Stow-on-the-Wold outwith Oxfordshire, then can we redraw those arbitrary lines a bit. You can have Clarkson's Farm (which I appreciate amounts to Diddly Squat) but you'll also get Banbury (which is a very 'Mercian' kind of place). In exchange I get a small slice of East Gloucestershire - mostly coffin dodgers in those parts anyway and you've got enough oldies in Mercia already  www.gbmaps.com/free-county-maps/Oxfordshire.php |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 19:44:21 GMT
When we see these polls showing Cons vying for third party status with the SNP, everyone automatically assumes the polls are overstating things a touch, the seat model is wrong, there's bound to be some swingback, or more likely a bit of all three. But we know that sometimes, once in a blue moon, parties do just collapse in on themselves. Europe has seen a fair bit of that in recent years. Are we so sure that the UK is immune from such eventualities? Unlike 1997, these polls are suggesting more than a chaotic retreat to the blue heartlands; the heartlands themselves are under attack and crumbling. The economic fundamentals are likely to get worse, not better, and there are no more leadership options to try, having burned through all the possibilities. Although I'm not saying this will happen, and fully aware that the demise of the blues has been widely predicted many times before, but I've been thinking for a long time that this election is going to be a lot worse for Cons that they think. should this scenario come about it will be interesting to see how long it takes for the Conservatives to abandon their support for FPTP, and join in with demands for PR. Before that it will be, once again, the Tory members to decide on a new leader. Who knows how limited the choice might be by then? (I mean in numbers, not suitability - obviously. ) But it could be an even worse scenario than 1997. (For them, not the country - obviously. ) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 19:45:27 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip poll JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet.
Full poll figures.
Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%
Very disappointed that Binface will split the Loony vote. ☹ I dunno, the Tories look too far ahead surely? |
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 19:52:15 GMT
Quick question for crossbat11 - why are Warwickshire CCC ridiculously wandering around calling themselves 'Birmingham' these days? Thanks, PJ, for giving me some distraction from this morning's session at Headingley! The creation of the one day cricket only entity known as Birmingham Bears was, I think, a marketing tool to promote T20 cricket in the city. Edgbaston being a suburb of Birmingham and most, but not all, of the Warwickshire members and spectators hailing from the city. They've always been a Brum-centric county cricket team but when I started watching cricket in the 60s, they used to play at outgrounds in Coventry, Nuneaton, Rugby and Stratford. There are some very strong cricket clubs in Warwickshire like Leamington and Kenilworth too. I don't quite understand why they don't take cricket to these populous towns elsewhere in the country and foster potential members. In Coventry's case, a very large city too. I do know quite a few Warwickshire members of my age and older who were outraged by the name change and don't recognise it. Mind you, they tend not to watch T20 cricket anyway. As for cricket generally, a sad day for me. Josh Tongue and Dillon Pennington leaving Worcester to go to Notts next season. Jack Haynes on his way soon, no doubt. The football-isation of cricket continues apace. There's also the point that the 'Birmingham Bears' aren't Warwickshire. Like the other franchises they are mostly a team of mercenaries who happen to play at Edgbaston. I don't know the business relationship - it might be that Warwickshire own them but they are a separate entity. |
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Post by jib on Jul 7, 2023 19:53:15 GMT
"Highest Labour % since the start of March" Westminster voting intention: LAB: 51% (+3) CON: 25% (-1) LDEM: 8% (-) REF: 5% (-2) GRN: 5% (-) via @omnisis, 06 - 07 Jul When you do the seat projections we are back into total Meltdown territory, that is before they put Mercer on the TV again. Lib Dems @26. Nah! 15-20 max. Otherwise perfectly plausible. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 19:58:23 GMT
“Mamas for de Santis.” !!!!!!!!
FFS, America is utterly weird. Broken and divided at the moment - and the loonies are the ones with the weapons.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 20:01:38 GMT
I see our resident psephological expert has already called next year’s Lib Dem general election result. Is there any point in them standing in as many seats as they are planning to at the moment? Seems a bit daft really.
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Post by mercian on Jul 7, 2023 20:11:24 GMT
I can remember as a child going to watch Warwickshire playing at the Courtaulds Ground in Coventry. Sadly, I understand the ground is derelict these days. I think they may have played occasionally at Cadburys cricket ground too. |
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Post by alec on Jul 7, 2023 20:17:49 GMT
Carl Sagan, in 1995 -
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 20:23:49 GMT
Do the Birmingham bears shit in the woods? Or is that just Brummies?
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