Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 7, 2023 8:56:49 GMT
Spectacular by election losses play into this, of course, and they undermine confidence too amongst the losing side. Boosting the winners at the same time.The Big Mo is what they call it in US politics. The other side of the same coin is the Unstoppable Slide. The Tories may have started theirs some time ago. I suspect Partygate was when it all began. In 2008 con were looking for a way to unseat labour. They were lucky, US banks sold worthless securities across the whole world causing a massive recession, and con were able to blame lab for this. At the following election lab even agreed with them they had mishandled the economy, whereas in truth everything went from bad to worse after con were elected. Fundamentally con economic policies have worked worse than lab ones, this was the first point of failure. Important to note though that con could afford to offend 2/3 of voters, so long as their policy was favouring the other 1/3, but things have become so bad the winners group keeps shrinking. Bu itself offering to mismanage the economy and thereby benefit the 1/3 wasnt enough. they needed something else, and what they picked up was euroscepticism. They were targeting the Farage/UKIP vote, and it worked to get them just over the line. Plus libs were running interference In 2010 they needed something else. Still blamed lab for the poor performance of tthe economy since they took power, but now offered a brexit referendum. Key turning point, this is what led to brexit, the conservatives wanting a parliamentary majority and needing to draw in a few percent extra voters. So right now what we have the is the conseuence of conservative economic philosophy applied to government for 13 years. Plus the consequences of brexit. These two were key in getting con elected, but also contained the seed of their eventual inevitable fall from power. Matters for lab are not helped because they too need a cause in the same way con needed one. Blair invented 'education, education, education'. Starmer has time still before an eventual election and doesnt want to box himself into a corner. He is just relying on the ongoing unravelling of the twin reasons for electing con in the first place. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 9:03:02 GMT
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE East Kilbride West (first preferences) WILLIAMS, Kirsty (Scottish Labour Party) 1,386 (40.3% +13.7) DORRIAN, Bill (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 904 (26.3% +6.3) GILLIES, Robert (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 778 (22.6% -8.3) EADIE, Cameron (Scottish Greens - Think Global Act Local) 131 (3.8%) KEANE, Kristofer (Independent) 99 (2.9%) STEVENSON, Jake (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 83 (2.4% +0.3) RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party) 42 (1.2% -0.4) Labour elected at 6th stage. Labour gain from SNP. Old Nat and his shotgun rider Hireton may suspect electoral fraud at play here. Labour were always likely to take this seat even if the first preferences had remained static for reasons I posted about yesterday. Nevertheless, the changes in first preference percentage are indicative that the movement in the Scottish polls is being backed up in actual votes. The SNP is in current decline and Labour seem to be the main beneficiaries - which implies some movement between and not just within the yes/no divide on independence (which, of itself, has not changed that much). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 7, 2023 9:04:12 GMT
Starmer quotes Gove :- "Starmer quoted Michael Gove, the Conservative former education secretary, to criticise “the soft bigotry of low expectations” for poorer children. “I don’t agree with everything he did in education, clearly, but when he said that — it was an important strike against the class ceiling, an acknowledgement that school standards are the most fundamental front line in the battle for more opportunity,” Starmer said." Times ....maybe this chap does have some principles..... Maybe he has principles, but this is bollocks. Maybe there are three kinds of state school. Middle class ones where kids are cooperative and teaching is relatively easy. I have nothing against people going to work in such a school who could not cope in a tougher environemnt, every person who is in a position they can do is one extra. Second kind, schools in neighbourhoods where no one is convinced education is good. However, the school is motivated, has a good team and produces results where they have improved the kids. Third kind, schools which have given up trying. Its just about preventing riots and ticking boxes. Staff here typically just enough of them competent so they can stop the kids burning the place down, but otherwise many of the teachers ar just bums on seats to tick the box of having one. This isnt about poor expectations for the kids, its about self preservation. They dont choose to employ incompetent staff because they dont care. They employ them because they have no budget to employ someone better, certainly not enough to attract such a person to a shitty job, and because those capable teachers simply do not exist. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 7, 2023 9:06:43 GMT
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE East Kilbride West (first preferences) WILLIAMS, Kirsty (Scottish Labour Party) 1,386 (40.3% +13.7) DORRIAN, Bill (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 904 (26.3% +6.3) GILLIES, Robert (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 778 (22.6% -8.3) EADIE, Cameron (Scottish Greens - Think Global Act Local) 131 (3.8%) KEANE, Kristofer (Independent) 99 (2.9%) STEVENSON, Jake (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 83 (2.4% +0.3) RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party) 42 (1.2% -0.4) Labour elected at 6th stage. Labour gain from SNP. Not clear where th lab gains came from? They didnt all come from SNP. Especially as con went up also. |
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Post by Mark on Jul 7, 2023 9:08:34 GMT
I'm posting straight from the hip here...I haven't yet caught up with this morning's posts, so, apologies if this has already been covered... The I are reporting that a mural in the centre that houses asylum seekers has now actually been painted over on the instructions of government minister, Robert Jenrick. It was of Mickey Mouse. We are being governed by people who are having Mickey Mouse airbrushed out of existence. Let those words sink in. Mickey bloody Mouse. How the hell did it come to this?  |
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Post by pete on Jul 7, 2023 9:09:48 GMT
Starmer quotes Gove :- "Starmer quoted Michael Gove, the Conservative former education secretary, to criticise “the soft bigotry of low expectations” for poorer children. “I don’t agree with everything he did in education, clearly, but when he said that — it was an important strike against the class ceiling, an acknowledgement that school standards are the most fundamental front line in the battle for more opportunity,” Starmer said." Times ....maybe this chap does have some principles..... Indeed. Things like reversing the snobbery of academia over vocational training (noting which party set 50% of kids going to Uni as a goal and which party scrapped that daft idea); and "equality of opportunity" rather than "equality of outcome" Dare I say Starmer has Tory principles  A vacuous cliche ridden speech and whilst clearly 'oracy' skills are important then so is maths and access to sport and the importance of young people understanding the importance of a good diet and.. and.. and.. In terms of actual policy then his 5th and final mission can be summarised as reviewing the current curriculum (for England - given education is devolved). Understandably it has received very little attention - perhaps that was the intention? labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-unveils-labours-mission-to-break-down-barriers-to-opportunity-at-every-stage/'a good diet' I think you'll find many young are more worried about just eating and feeding their hunger than how good the diet is, not sure how a government could help, you know something like free school meals? and I wonder who sold off all the school sport fields? |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 7, 2023 9:10:16 GMT
@danny I disagree with you fundamentally, stroking and pinching another person's bottom without consent is definitely a big no no Certainly from my background if anyone had tried that down my local working mens club it would of resulted in a smack in the gob Well maybe it should have here. It doesnt look as though the first person who was subject to this actually complained at all. At the time. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 9:11:06 GMT
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE East Kilbride West (first preferences) WILLIAMS, Kirsty (Scottish Labour Party) 1,386 (40.3% +13.7) DORRIAN, Bill (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 904 (26.3% +6.3) GILLIES, Robert (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 778 (22.6% -8.3) EADIE, Cameron (Scottish Greens - Think Global Act Local) 131 (3.8%) KEANE, Kristofer (Independent) 99 (2.9%) STEVENSON, Jake (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 83 (2.4% +0.3) RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party) 42 (1.2% -0.4) Labour elected at 6th stage. Labour gain from SNP. Not clear where th lab gains came from? They didnt all come from SNP. Especially as con went up also. Very low turnout, I suspect, but maybe new voters? Not all gains in elections are vote-switchers from other parties, remember. Red up, blue down isn't always symmetrical. Gains can come from unlikely sources sometimes. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 7, 2023 9:12:38 GMT
I'm posting straight from the hip here...I haven't yet caught up with this morning's posts, so, apologies if this has already been covered... The I are reporting that a mural in the centre that houses asylum seekers has now actually been painted over on the instructions of government minister, Robert Jenrick. It was of Mickey Mouse. We are being governed by people who are having Mickey Mouse airbrushed out of existence. Let those words sink in. Mickey bloody Mouse. How the hell did it come to this? Donald Duck, be scared. Be very scared. |
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Post by jimjam on Jul 7, 2023 9:15:57 GMT
Trevor,
The tuition fees not been scrapped policy has long been intended but was leaked before the full package was worked out and it still is a WIP.
Scheme 3 is even more regressive than scheme 2 so there will be changes around entry levels for payments and hopefully something on maintenance support for those from lower income groups.
Many in the party would like a graduate tax but implementation was often cited as a barrier, whether genuine and/or if still the case I don't know.
What the review won't do is lower the Interest Rate across the board (maybe some tapering) or the full amount paid/loaned for fees as doing so would be regressive as those measures benefit high earners most; and those on decent but not high salaries who will never pay off their loans not at all.
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Post by graham on Jul 7, 2023 9:22:35 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip poll JL Partners poll for 38 Degrees has Labour on 41% and the Tories on 33%. Full tables aren't on the JL Partners website yet.
Full poll figures.
Beales (Lab) 41%
Tuckwell (Con) 33%
Baquiche (Lib Dem) 6%
Fox (Reclaim) 5%
Green (Green) 4%
Hamilton "Anti Ulez" (Ind) 4%
Bell (Ind), Binface (Binface), Corbyn (Let London Live), Hewison (Rejoin), Hope (OMRLP), Jane (UKIP) each 1%
Gardner (SDP), Gemmell (Climate), Joseph (Ind), Ntefon (CPA), Phaure (Ind) each 0%
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 9:24:46 GMT
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE East Kilbride West (first preferences) WILLIAMS, Kirsty (Scottish Labour Party) 1,386 (40.3% +13.7) DORRIAN, Bill (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 904 (26.3% +6.3) GILLIES, Robert (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 778 (22.6% -8.3) EADIE, Cameron (Scottish Greens - Think Global Act Local) 131 (3.8%) KEANE, Kristofer (Independent) 99 (2.9%) STEVENSON, Jake (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 83 (2.4% +0.3) RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party) 42 (1.2% -0.4) Labour elected at 6th stage. Labour gain from SNP. Not clear where th lab gains came from? They didnt all come from SNP. Especially as con went up also. They will have largely come from the voters of the popular (and elected) Independent candidate in 2022, who polled 1248 votes. Said person is an ex-SNP Councillor who left the party. This was the 2022 result (first preferences): Lab 1780 (elected) Con 1339 Ind 1248 (elected) SNP 1041 SNP 1031 (elected) Lib Dem 142 Family 110 UKIP 18 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 9:27:46 GMT
Well, you presume incorrectly. I was merely amused by your pomposity -  - had no interest in the actual argument at all. I rest my case. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2023 9:28:20 GMT
@mark
James O'Brien was just on talking about this.
How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming.
What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible.
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Post by James E on Jul 7, 2023 9:39:39 GMT
Re Selby, Based on national polls at the time of the resignation, applying proportionate swing adjusted for Tory By-Election slippage and tactical voting, I suggested that anything short of a victory by at least 5% would actually be disappointing for Labour. Since that time Labours' lead over the Tories has widened so a victory of just over 10% would not be surprising and in line with the adjusted national picture. Off there tomorrow for a days campaigning which will be interesting as my first time campaigning in a solid 'Tory' seat. Wakefield was about getting former Labour voters back or at least not voting Tory so I will be intrigued to see what the messaging is tomorrow when briefed. The odds for the Selby by-election with Betfred have now shifted to Lab 4/11, Con 2/1. My own prediction from the time Adams resigned the seat was a narrow Lab win. A very simple model of the Conservatives losing 40% of their vote from 2019 and Lab gaining 60% of that lost vote produces Con 36%, Lab 39%. This may well understimate the Tories losses. Although they are less common than LibDem by -election 'surges', there are precedents for huge Con to Lab swings in by elections when the Tories are really unpopular. Looking back to the 1992-97 Parliament, there were 4 where the swing exceeded even the highest swings of any constituency at the 1997 election (19%), let alone the overall GE1997 swing of 10-11%. These were Barking in 19994 (22%), Dagenham 1994 (23%), Dudley West 1994 (29%, and the current record) and SE Staffordshire 1996 (22%). The Tories vote retention in these 'early-Blair' by elections was worst in Barking (31%) and Dagenham (27%), although in each case this was partly due to losses to other parties of the right, much like to Corby 2012. Dudley West was the worst for the Tories in a seat they held, at 38% vote retention (or 48.9% to 18.7%). It looks unlikely that the 29% swing record will be broken, but local and national polling would suggest a similar swing to SE Stafffordshire in 1996 or Dagenham in 1994. The other comparison I'd make to those 1994-97 by-elections is what happens to the Conservative vote. I've noted that the the largest losses were in Barking and Dagenham, where far right parties took a larger share, but if you look at other by-elections from that time (e.g Eastleigh on the same day) it seems that the Tories vote was normally halved from GE1992. So the pattern I have noted of the Tories faring worse where they are defending is a phenomenon of the current parliament, rather than the historic norm. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Jul 7, 2023 9:46:45 GMT
Trevor, The tuition fees not been scrapped policy has long been intended but was leaked before the full package was worked out and it still is a WIP. Scheme 3 is even more regressive than scheme 2 so there will be changes around entry levels for payments and hopefully something on maintenance support for those from lower income groups. Many in the party would like a graduate tax but implementation was often cited as a barrier, whether genuine and/or if still the case I don't know. What the review won't do is lower the Interest Rate across the board (maybe some tapering) or the full amount paid/loaned for fees as doing so would be regressive as those measures benefit high earners most; and those on decent but not high salaries who will never pay off their loans not at all. You obviously know more about the inner workings of policy within LAB. I thought some of this stuff was supposed to be agreed at LAB conf rather than within a small group? CON don't go in for that 'democracy' stuff by letting members craft policy - perhaps Starmer is copying CON on that as well? Anyway, whilst Starmer did acknowledge Gove then he 'forgot' to acknowledge Williamson.
Education secretary abandons Tony Blair’s policy to send 50 per cent of young people to university
‘It exasperates me that there is still an inbuilt snobbishness about higher being somehow better than further,’ Gavin Williamson says
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/university-target-50-tony-blair-gavin-williamson-a9610556.htmlWell I suppose "'Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?" although Starmer can claim his policy is different to continuity CON given he wants to focus on 'Oracy' where as Rishi's focus is on 'Maths'. I was no fan of Williamson but ripping up Blair's target and switching to focus on vocational education/skills was a good policy - one I'm glad it looks like Starmer will continue with. IMO Williamson's short phrase on the 'snobbishness' was more succinct than the 1,000 of words that a former lawyer used to say the same thing - put I suppose Starmer needed to pad his speech out a bit? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 9:48:21 GMT
SOUTH LANARKSHIRE East Kilbride West (first preferences) WILLIAMS, Kirsty (Scottish Labour Party) 1,386 (40.3% +13.7) DORRIAN, Bill (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 904 (26.3% +6.3) GILLIES, Robert (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 778 (22.6% -8.3) EADIE, Cameron (Scottish Greens - Think Global Act Local) 131 (3.8%) KEANE, Kristofer (Independent) 99 (2.9%) STEVENSON, Jake (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 83 (2.4% +0.3) RICHARDSON, Jonathan Jack (Scottish Family Party) 42 (1.2% -0.4) Labour elected at 6th stage. Labour gain from SNP. Old Nat and his shotgun rider Hireton may suspect electoral fraud at play here. I’m sorry to see that your hissy, sissy fits have reappeared Battso. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 9:48:38 GMT
@mark James O'Brien was just on talking about this. How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming. What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible. I think you are missing the point. Based on what he said when he visited Jenrick is actively enthusiastic about making it less welcoming and a more traumatic experience for children. His comments were along the lines of the staff needing to realise they were running a branch of law enforcement not a social service. He also demanded brightly coloured signs should be removed, so it was as grim as possible. The only reasonable conclusion one can draw is that Robert Jenrick is a disgusting and sick individual. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 9:58:47 GMT
Quick question for crossbat11 - why are Warwickshire CCC ridiculously wandering around calling themselves 'Birmingham' these days? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 10:04:42 GMT
Quick question for crossbat11 - why are Warwickshire CCC ridiculously wandering around calling themselves 'Birmingham' these days? I think he's a Pear, not a Bear. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2023 10:08:18 GMT
@mark James O'Brien was just on talking about this. How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming. What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible. I think you are missing the point. Based on what he said when he visited Jenrick is actively enthusiastic about making it less welcoming and a more traumatic experience for children. His comments were along the lines of the staff needing to realise they were running a branch of law enforcement not a social service. He also demanded brightly coloured signs should be removed, so it was as grim as possible. The only reasonable conclusion one can draw is that Robert Jenrick is a disgusting and sick individual. Sky running with this now. news.sky.com/story/evil-home-office-paints-over-mickey-mouse-mural-at-child-asylum-seeker-centre-12916543 |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2023 10:17:20 GMT
I would like others to watch the short attached video, it illustrates the dangers associated with a population that's routinely armed and where otherwise crimes that could be dealt with without use of firearms escalate. I would be interested to hear what others think should have happened. ( For what it's worth I would have shot the individual ) youtu.be/eux7URalQsM |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 10:17:27 GMT
Quick question for crossbat11 - why are Warwickshire CCC ridiculously wandering around calling themselves 'Birmingham' these days? I think he's a Pear, not a Bear. He is, but due to the past Redditch connection (in Worcs but on the edge of the Birmingham conurbation) he also maintains an interest in the doings of the neighbours, not least Aston Villa of course. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2023 10:18:50 GMT
pjw1961I suspect you're right but wtf goes through someone's head to think that way. It's genuinely unfathomable.
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Post by Mark on Jul 7, 2023 10:22:09 GMT
I wonder what kind of voter Mr Jenrick is trying to appeal to.... |
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Post by expatr on Jul 7, 2023 10:22:28 GMT
@mark James O'Brien was just on talking about this. How the fuck does Jenrick justify in his own head making a building designed for the reception of traumatised young children less welcoming. What goes through that brain that makes him think this is anything other than utterly reprehensible. I think you are missing the point. Based on what he said when he visited Jenrick is actively enthusiastic about making it less welcoming and a more traumatic experience for children. His comments were along the lines of the staff needing to realise they were running a branch of law enforcement not a social service. He also demanded brightly coloured signs should be removed, so it was as grim as possible. The only reasonable conclusion one can draw is that Robert Jenrick is a disgusting and sick individual. disgusting and sick individual
yes although 23 fewer letters would have sufficed
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 7, 2023 10:28:47 GMT
pjw1961 I suspect you're right but wtf goes through someone's head to think that way. It's genuinely unfathomable. It is what you get when you start to dehumanise people. Plenty of warnings from history of where that ends. |
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Post by James E on Jul 7, 2023 10:34:00 GMT
Savanna Poll, it appears their poll last week was a 'rogue' one 📈18pt Labour lead 🌹Lab 46 (+3) 🌳Con 28 (-3) 🔶LD 11 (+1) ➡️Reform 4 (-1) 🌍Green 4 (+1) 🎗️SNP 3 (-1) ⬜️Other 4 (=) 2,216 UK adults, 30 June - 2 July (chg from 23-25 June) That's Labour's (equal) highest lead with Savanta for 5 months - or 20 of their polls. Looking at their figures over that time, they generally show Labour leads around 3-4 points lower than the average. I don't normally bother checking Savanta's tables. The latest version (linked below) are at least a bit more readable than the 250-page version they used to provide. But I'm glad I have had a look as they are really interesting - not so much as for what they show for the next General Election as for how their respondents recall voting at the last one. We don't have figures for this latest poll, but these are the recalled 2019 votes of their previous 4 samples: 2-4 June: Con 40%, Lab 42%, LD 8% ( 556, 585, 115 per table 1) 9-11 June: Con 42%, Lab 41%, LD 6% (572, 556, 82 ) 16-18 June : Con 41%, Lab 40%, LD 8% (579, 560, 109 ) 23-26 June: Con 39%, Lab 43%, LD 7.5% (571, 633, 112) In each case, these are then re-weighted to more closely resemble GE2019 (table 12); it looks like they do make allowance for the demographic age shift, which alone reduces the Con vote and increases Lab by about 2 points, and/or new voters and non voters.. Needless to say, the re-weighting has a sigificant effect on the headline figures: that 43/31 poll from 25 June was 53/25 in the raw, unadjusted figures, while the other 3 polls show Labour 26 or 27% ahead in the raw figures. savanta.com/published-polls/ |
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Post by Mark on Jul 7, 2023 10:36:01 GMT
@danny
While it is correct to say that, back in the day, a bottom pinch by one of your peers in school was, to an extent, tolerated/accepted, it wouldn't be today.
Two further points to make to this.
Firstly, if the pinching was done by a teacher rather than a fellow 13 year old, even back then, if it came to light, it certainly would not be tolerated.
Secondly, even back then - if someone had touched a fellow pupil's penis or vagina without consent, they would have been carted off to the head of year, or even the headmaster, pretty sharpish.
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Post by James E on Jul 7, 2023 10:57:59 GMT
My post above about Savanta also reflects the difference between panel and 'recalled past vote' pollsters. Taking the recalled-past-vote ones first, here are Savanta's and R&W's most recent Con2019 cross-breaks:
Savanta
Con 64%
Lab 11%
LD 5%
Don't Know 13%
R&W
Con 59%
Lab 14%
LD 3%
DK 17%
But with the Panel Pollsters...
YouGov
Con 42%
Lab 11%
LD 2%
DK 23%
Opinium
Con 44%
Lab 13%
LD 3%
DK 24%
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- had no interest in the actual argument at all. 
