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Post by eor on May 2, 2023 22:15:31 GMT
Thanks jimjam - that's interesting in itself. But what I was really after is a sense of how you yourself feel when you're talking to people on the doorstep - do you assume that a chunk of people who get into chatting with you about their views in an LE canvass will pretty likely not bother to vote (as very roughly half of those voting in GEs don't in an LE) or does it feel like the people that will engage with you are probably in the 30ish% that will vote regardless? Nothing about extrapolation to polls or what will happen on Thursday, I'm just curious what you think about the people who do engage on the doorstep. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2023 22:26:50 GMT
Official warning letters have been sent to anti-monarchists planning peaceful protests at King Charles III’s coronation saying that new criminal offences to prevent disruption have been rushed into law.
Using tactics described by lawyers as “intimidatory”, the Home Office’s Police Powers Unit wrote to the campaign group Republic saying new powers had been brought forward to prevent “disruption at major sporting and cultural events”.
The new law, given royal assent by Charles on Tuesday, means that from Wednesday:
Protesters who block roads, airports and railways could face 12 months behind bars.
Anyone locking on to others, objects or buildings could go to prison for six months and face an unlimited fine.
Don't you just love the Tories approach to democracy.
Well if it was good enough for Mussolini it's good enough for the regime.
Look forward to prisons being full of well meaning people who publicly voice their opposition to the climate disaster and unwarranted inherited wealth and privilege
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Post by eor on May 2, 2023 23:26:28 GMT
@rafwan Actually I've been rather preoccupied with my very pregnant daughter, she's just 4ft 11 and her partner is 6ft 4 and it's quite a logistical exercise getting her in and out of the car while getting her to and from work. Just a thought but well worth checking if their intended car seat will fit behind him. The hassle difference between one that can stay in the same place wherever he's sitting, and one that always has to be reseated based on who's driving is...large! |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 3, 2023 0:00:00 GMT
While I do find politics in other polities interesting (which is why I read most posts on here) the better weather now allows me to concentrate on the garden - much less abrasive.
Catching up on today's posts, which are essentially about politics in England (though under current constitutional arrangements will have huge influence here) I'm struck by the strongest argument for having a Labour UK Government is that it won't be as corrupt as the current one. That is, indeed, a strong argument for ensuring that the current UK Tory government does not continue after the next UK GE, even if it just means that Middle England gets the "nicer" Tory government that Starmer offers.
I understand that Labour party partisans want their party to have an overall majority in UK HoC so that they can legislate for anything they want - but if "what they want" is just nicer Toryism then that is a somewhat pathetic ambition.
In terms of VI, reasonable LoC folk who actually want to see changes that reduce inequality in society, might prefer to vote for a more progressive option in seats where that would help to unseat a Tory. If Labour is the only realistic option to do that in England, that might be the only reasonable option. However, in the UK HoC that results, an overall Labour majority might be the 2nd worst possible outcome.
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Post by Rafwan on May 3, 2023 0:07:46 GMT
Corbyn did better than Starmer until Tories imploded, and the race isn’t run yet. Sorry, but that is not even remotely true. Corbyn was never 20%+ ahead or even 14%+ ahead. That may have more to do with the Tories than either Corbyn or Starmer, but facts are facts. Corbyn was ahead throughout the second half of 2017 and into 2018. After the 19 GE, Labour did not achieve parity until the end of 2021, eighteen months after Starmer became leader. It was a very worrying period. Then partygate happened (minor implosion) and later Truss (major implosion). |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 0:37:30 GMT
Sorry, but that is not even remotely true. Corbyn was never 20%+ ahead or even 14%+ ahead. That may have more to do with the Tories than either Corbyn or Starmer, but facts are facts. Corbyn was ahead throughout the second half of 2017 and into 2018. After the 19 GE, Labour did not achieve parity until the end of 2021, eighteen months after Starmer became leader. It was a very worrying period. Then partygate happened (minor implosion) and later Truss (major implosion). Equally the 2020-21 period was dominated by Covid and governing parties everywhere received a boost from that, including the SNP in Scotland and Labour in Wales. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 0:41:11 GMT
mercian There you go again spouting the b.s. that brexitanians say remainers/rejoiners said rather than what they actually said. No all inflation isn't down to Brexit but the fact that inflation in the UK is higher than the European union is down to the policies of the regime that implemented brexit: ... The UK currently has inflation significantly higher than our nearest European union neighbour's and the union as a whole ,nearly double the rate in France and more than treble the rate in Spain and is on track for the lowest growth of any country in the G20 with the possible exception of Russia. You can bury your head in the sand and engage in wilful denialism and jib can deploy his crayon set and reference to retired politicians but facts are facts. The UK leaving the European union diminishes this countries economic position at a on going rate of approximately £1 million an hour, that's without reference to our rights as European union citizens that you stole from us all. .... What type of brexitanian are you? First of all the bit about inflation was a joke - hence the laughing emoji. If this too hard for you to understand I'll try to remember to put [joke] after such comments for your benefit. I am the type of 'brexitanian' who would rather be poor with the ability to democratically kick out my rulers than rich and without that ability. To me it has nothing whatever to do with economics. I happen to believe that after a period of turbulence we will be at least as well off in the medium to long term than if we had stayed in the economically declining EU. However I don't care if that turns out not to be the case. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 0:53:40 GMT
Russia's many problems seem to stem directly from a completely dysfunctional leadership, with Putin's reputation as a strategic genius receding further and further into history each day. I must admit I'd never heard that about him. Like Stalin, sacking/executing top generals probably doesn't help the war effort. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:04:04 GMT
If you read all my posts you will find I take the Tories move to the extreme right very seriously I don't think your idea of extreme right tallies with mine. Could you define what you mean? Extreme right to me would include systematic racism for instance. The fact that the ministers you mentioned are members of ethnic minorities (for the time being) doesn't really tally with that view. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:06:56 GMT
My take on today's Starmer comments. I am relaxed on the tuition fee one as I can also think of plenty of things I would rather see £9bn spent on. On the other hand I'm not happy with the tax policy. I would happy tax the rich until the pips squeaked (to borrow Healey's phrase). Can you define rich? I think quite a few of us on here are a bit better off than most from hints that have been dropped. I'm guessing that 'rich' would start some way above your own financial position? |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:10:09 GMT
Putting that aside it also would appear that your support for Labour since 1997 is rather inferior to mine I voted for Labour at every election from 1979 to 2015 with the exception of 1983 when an arrest meant I missed the poll so maybe I will forgo the lectures on vote choice. What were you arrested for if you don't mind me asking? 🤣 [joke] That last bit was for your own benefit. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 1:13:02 GMT
If you read all my posts you will find I take the Tories move to the extreme right very seriously I don't think your idea of extreme right tallies with mine. Could you define what you mean? Extreme right to me would include systematic racism for instance. The fact that the ministers you mentioned are members of ethnic minorities (for the time being) doesn't really tally with that view. Individuals from any ethnic group can be racist. Braverman's talk of "invasions" of migrants and of grooming gangs being predominately Muslim when the statistics show this is not true are both clear evidence of dog-whistle racism. And what does "ethnic minorities for the time being" mean. We did this one before: the country is 82% white. "Government data about the UK's different ethnic groups. 82% of people in England and Wales are white, and 18% belong to a black, Asian, mixed or other ethnic group (2021 Census data)." |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:13:55 GMT
Any Labour supporters like to step in and support your party? There are many on here who prefer the purity of the totally clear conscience you can can have by sitting in impotent opposition, never doing anything but free to moan about the Tory government. I have no time for that attitude. A lot can be achieved without being in government. Every party now has some kind of Green agenda because of the Greens. UKIP and Brexit Party were instrumental in getting us out of the EU. Two examples. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2023 1:17:37 GMT
My take on today's Starmer comments. I am relaxed on the tuition fee one as I can also think of plenty of things I would rather see £9bn spent on. On the other hand I'm not happy with the tax policy. I would happy tax the rich until the pips squeaked (to borrow Healey's phrase). Can you define rich? I think quite a few of us on here are a bit better off than most from hints that have been dropped. I'm guessing that 'rich' would start some way above your own financial position? No. I would be happy to pay more tax. However, the super-rich rarely pay their full share - hence Sunak's effective tax rate of 22% revealed in his tax return: "The prime minister first said he would be happy to publish his tax return in November last year. He has now revealed he earned a total of £4.766m across the three years of 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 and paid a total of £1.053m in tax - an overall effective tax rate of 22%." Sky news. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:24:03 GMT
Since 1922 Labour have had 15 leaders - only three of whom have managed to win an election with a majority. The reality is Labour generally lose. I would like them to stop making excuses and start winning. Good point. And for those LoC folks rubbishing Blair just remember he's the only Labour leader to win an election in nearly 50 years. Doesn't that tell you something about what the voters want? |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:34:18 GMT
Well first off, all con administrations say they aim to help the worse off. Its standard rhetoric which never happens. What about all the unprecedented handouts to help with fuel costs? I suppose that doesn't count because the Tories did it? |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:38:51 GMT
That’d be me then. But first two questions - 1. What on earth are you doing posting here when you should be out canvassing (glad I am not your agent!). (Actually same goes - ahem - for pj). This is probably a boring subject to most, but the rhythm of political campaigning has changed somewhat from back in the 1980s when I was politically active the first time round - and the main driver of that is the prevalence of postal voting. We started with canvassing and two generic leaflet drops to all houses (with a gap in between obviously). Next was a glossier election address in target wards only. Then an addressed letter went out to identified supporters known to have postal votes timed to hit the letter boxes just before the delivery of the postal votes, because most people with postal votes fill them in immediately. About a week later an addressed letter to supporters without postal votes was delivered reminding them of the election, followed up this weekend with addressed reminder cards to known supporters (I was pounding the streets most of Monday). The final push will be door knocking, lift offering and 'sorry you were out, remember to vote' cards on election day, again only to supporters. I've been at a candidates and activists meeting this evening where the election organiser observed that most wards will have already been won and lost before anyone casts a physical vote on Thursday, due to the key importance of postal voting. I'm staggered that you can identify supporters. I never tell any canvasser who I'm going to vote for and indeed don't always make my mind up until I'm in the polling booth. I had assumed that most people did the same. Obviously wrong. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 1:50:51 GMT
Official warning letters have been sent to anti-monarchists planning peaceful protests at King Charles III’s coronation saying that new criminal offences to prevent disruption have been rushed into law. Using tactics described by lawyers as “intimidatory”, the Home Office’s Police Powers Unit wrote to the campaign group Republic saying new powers had been brought forward to prevent “disruption at major sporting and cultural events”. The new law, given royal assent by Charles on Tuesday, means that from Wednesday: Protesters who block roads, airports and railways could face 12 months behind bars. Anyone locking on to others, objects or buildings could go to prison for six months and face an unlimited fine. Don't you just love the Tories approach to democracy. Well if it was good enough for Mussolini it's good enough for the regime. Look forward to prisons being full of well meaning people who publicly voice their opposition to the climate disaster and unwarranted inherited wealth and privilege Serve the b*stards right. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. In fact rather lenient. They can still protest without blocking roads or gluing themselves to things. I thought there was already a law about obstructing the King's highway anyway even though the police don't seem to enforce it. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 2:01:10 GMT
I don't think your idea of extreme right tallies with mine. Could you define what you mean? Extreme right to me would include systematic racism for instance. The fact that the ministers you mentioned are members of ethnic minorities (for the time being) doesn't really tally with that view. Individuals from any ethnic group can be racist. Braverman's talk of "invasions" of migrants and of grooming gangs being predominately Muslim when the statistics show this is not true are both clear evidence of dog-whistle racism. And what does "ethnic minorities for the time being" mean. We did this one before: the country is 82% white. "Government data about the UK's different ethnic groups. 82% of people in England and Wales are white, and 18% belong to a black, Asian, mixed or other ethnic group (2021 Census data)." Ok, talking about invasions of migrants is not racist because many of the illegals in particular are 'white' Albanians. Assigning a particular religion to a particular crime is not racist because a religion is not a race. Every race has members who are Muslim. Braverman might be 'religionist' I suppose, if her assertion is proved to be false. I have calculated by using birth and immigration rates and so on that 'white' people will be less than 50% of the population by about 2050. Of course it's only an estimate but it will happen sooner or later unless something drastic happens. |
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Post by mercian on May 3, 2023 2:02:24 GMT
Can you define rich? I think quite a few of us on here are a bit better off than most from hints that have been dropped. I'm guessing that 'rich' would start some way above your own financial position? No. I would be happy to pay more tax. Nothing to stop you making a voluntary donation. Thought not. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 4:34:26 GMT
Since 1922 Labour have had 15 leaders - only three of whom have managed to win an election with a majority. The reality is Labour generally lose. I would like them to stop making excuses and start winning. Good point. And for those LoC folks rubbishing Blair just remember he's the only Labour leader to win an election in nearly 50 years. Doesn't that tell you something about what the voters want? It tells you there is a need to control variables, and that the Tories were on the floor following Black Wednesday, before Blair became leader. There is then the point that the Tory rebels subsequently continued giving Major grief, making it hard for him to recover, as the EU issue for the rebels trumped their desire for party success, contributing to keeping Tories on the floor. The way rogue factions sabotage their own parties is a key feature of our politics. (As shall also be seen in the next post…)   en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File%3AOpinion_polling_for_the_1997_United_Kingdom_general_election.png |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 4:41:30 GMT
So, to 1983, and people blame Foot and his policies for the electoral outcome. But actually Foot was doing rather well, until two things happened: firstly, the splitting of the vote once the SDP broke away, and you can see how the Labour vote falls in tandem with the rise of the Alliance vote following the Limehouse Declaration etc.:  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 4:45:28 GMT
The actions of the SDP help explain what happened to the Labour vote, but not so much why the Tory vote started rising, which instead maps on to the big fall in inflation as oil prices fell back, maybe below five percent by the time of the election in ‘83:  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 4:53:28 GMT
And in another example of not taking all variables into account, some liked to credit Thatcher policies for the fall in inflation, but the collapse in oil price that occurred at the same time and which saw inflation fall elsewhere, ushering in a world boom, was global, not down to Thatcher:  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 6:26:16 GMT
mercian "I am the type of 'brexitanian' who would rather be poor with the ability to democratically kick out my rulers than rich and without that ability" That's interesting remind me how we had the choice to kick out the last two Tory prime ministers or appoint the last and the current one. And did I miss the chance we had to appoint our head of state? I've never had a problem with noticing that many of your posts are hilarious.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 6:38:43 GMT
mercianPrecisely how do you think you make a voluntary donation to the HMRC Most people would regard an individual who ranks in the richest thousand in the UK such as Rishi Sunak as rich and would find it bizarre that he pays a tax rate nearly 40% lower than the head of his own police close protection team and 35% less than his cleaner
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jib
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Post by jib on May 3, 2023 6:52:57 GMT
mercian There you go again spouting the b.s. that brexitanians say remainers/rejoiners said rather than what they actually said. No all inflation isn't down to Brexit but the fact that inflation in the UK is higher than the European union is down to the policies of the regime that implemented brexit: ... The UK currently has inflation significantly higher than our nearest European union neighbour's and the union as a whole ,nearly double the rate in France and more than treble the rate in Spain and is on track for the lowest growth of any country in the G20 with the possible exception of Russia. You can bury your head in the sand and engage in wilful denialism and jib can deploy his crayon set and reference to retired politicians but facts are facts. The UK leaving the European union diminishes this countries economic position at a on going rate of approximately £1 million an hour, that's without reference to our rights as European union citizens that you stole from us all. .... What type of brexitanian are you? First of all the bit about inflation was a joke - hence the laughing emoji. If this too hard for you to understand I'll try to remember to put [joke] after such comments for your benefit. I am the type of 'brexitanian' who would rather be poor with the ability to democratically kick out my rulers than rich and without that ability. To me it has nothing whatever to do with economics. I happen to believe that after a period of turbulence we will be at least as well off in the medium to long term than if we had stayed in the economically declining EU. However I don't care if that turns out not to be the case. Well said. It was those famous words of William Wallace that have stood the test of time that inspired me; "Run and you’ll live, at least a while. And dying in your beds many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that for one chance, just one chance to come back here and tell our enemies that they may take our lives, but they’ll never take our freedom!" Priceless, what a guy, but I should quote Owain Glyndwr really.  |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 3, 2023 6:55:14 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 7:06:25 GMT
Jib and Mercian have very kindly confirmed what type of brexitanians they are.
They fit firmly in the category of those who faced with the overwhelming evidence that their choice is an on going failure choose to pretend it isn't and at some point in the indeterminate long term we will reach the sun lit uplands.
The fact that the U.K. is losing £1 million an hour because of Brexit and there is a clear and quantifiable loss of our rights because of Brexit is ignored because of some illusory claim that we have recovered something we never lost in the first place.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 7:08:57 GMT
jibYou do understand that Mel Gibson 's portrayal of William Wallace is totally devoid of any factual basis, is a fantasy, entirely consistent with your posts on brexit.
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