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Post by James E on May 2, 2023 18:33:29 GMT
R&W's 30 April Red Wall compared to GE2019
Lab 48% (+10)
Con 30% (-17)
LD 8% (+3)
Ref 6% (-)
Green 5% (+4)
Swing Con>Lab 13.5%
This compares to a 14% swing per their latest GB poll with Labour 17 points ahead. So normal for this sample of constituencies.
Looking at the 40 constituencies polled, I think they would all go to Labour if this were replicated at the GE, although the most long-shot (Bassetlaw) requires a 13.8% swing.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2023 19:04:39 GMT
Interesting simply by being consistent with the position the lib dems are progressively becoming the further left of centre alternative to Labour. Great! It's like the days of Charles Kennedy again. The tork/ukip regime and the timidity of the Labour leadership are pushing that Overton window firmly to the right Not sure how you mean that. I would suggest they aren't pushing the overton window at all, which is a matter of the views of the mainstream population (acording to wikipedia). Rather the parties have both moved to the right regardless of the true overton window position. The original idea is that politicians have to either position themselves in the window or attempt to move it. In our case i dont think either applies because of a couple of special circumstances. ONS say there are 46,500,000 eligible parliamentary voters in the Uk, but Johnson got just 14,000,000. Which is 30%. Labour got 10 million or 22%. So between them they barely got half the voters to support them. Heres a guardian article from 2019 reporting information from the electoral reform society, which suggests some 9 million eligible people are not on the electoral register. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/more-than-9-million-eligible-voters-not-correctly-registered . At about the same time ONS reckoned there were 47 million registered, so its dropped back a bit since then. Maybe brexit persuaded some to register who have dropped off again, maybe thats leave voters who have died. But either way it seems likely the real total of eligible people is more like 55 million. So actually even together the two main parties got only 44% of the possible vote, and conservatives just over 25%, which is why from time to time i say they were elected by just 1/4 of the nation. Given half the population didnt vote for either of them, it rather begs the question whether either main party is interested in the actual position of the overton window, if the definition is the view of the british population. One maybe now needs to reconsider the definition of this window, and whether it only means the views of those people who bother to vote lab or con. Which is a very different thing.
The other issue is brexit. Conservatives won their last three elections on the back of those people wanting brexit. There were 17 million leave voters in the referendum, and again about 22 million eligible people who did not vote (and 16 million remain). con were not interested in policies which appealed to the overton window, but to leave voters, and they still are.
labour too has been busy chasing leave voters, and not the overton window however it is defined.
So why is lab not interested in socialism? Because the socialists gave up voting. We are ruled by parties of the right who have arranged for left leaning citizens to not bother voting because both main parties have unacceptable policies. The FPP system allows them to do this, and thats why they want to keep it.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2023 19:40:09 GMT
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the US estimates that Russia have lost 20,000 troops in the 10 month battle for Bakhmut, along with 80,000 wounded. Over the winter they managed to advance a paltry 2 miles a month, and Bakhmut still hasn't fallen. It seem that Russia did precisely what Ukraine wanted them to do, fixating on a strategically unimportant target and wasting huge amounts of effort here, while Ukraine was able to prepare for their own spring offensive. Russia's many problems seem to stem directly from a completely dysfunctional leadership, with Putin's reputation as a strategic genius receding further and further into history each day. I fear i cannot agree. This is the optimistic interpretation. A more pessimistic interpretation would start by arguing that Ukraine has severe shortages of equipment and munitions. In a year the west seems to have done very little to increase the available supply, which would require huge spending on manufacturing capacity and simply ordering what could be made now. While russia has significantly upped its own capacity for armaments manufacture and made some important supply arrangements with other parties. Although Russia has had to drop the rate at which it is using ammunition, it continues to out fire Ukraine. Ukraine has a rag tag set of equipment from all over the world, including former USSR manufacture for which the russians are not providing spares or the sometimes unique ammunition. The west has from the outset assumed this war will end quickly so they need do nothing. Its still doing it. Ukraine is the battlefield on which both sides are fighting, and continues to be slowly pounded into dust. thats really bad news for ukraine, even if they eventually win. The occupied territories have suffered a year of Russification involving killing Ukrainian nationalists, destroying any infrastructure not important to russia, abducting all the children of Ukrainian sympathisers to be adopted in russia. The plan no doubt is that if there ever was a genuine democratic vote on who they wanted to belong to, the only people left would say Russia. So after a ukrainian win, they could find the remaining populations demanding to be allowed to join russia. Yes, Russia was losing troops a lot faster at bahkmut than Ukraine, but then it has more troops. It has a massively bigger population. What might be more criticial is the numbers of good troops being lost by both sides. I suspect All the Ukrainians are good well motivated and experienced troops. Whereas russia has certainly used poorly trained men as cannon fodder, and can get more faster than can Ukraine. There seems to be some power play going on, where putin has been happy for the Wagner group to take the brunt of the damage. To limit the power of a political rival. However, The Bahkmut battle has kept Ukraine busy all winter, preventing it staging any offensive anywhere else. This has provided time for Russia to fortify the occupied land. We will only find out if it has succeded in doing this if Ukraine counter attacks. There are signs Ukraine is establishing positions south of the river at Kherson. If their goal is to drive Russia out of ukraine, then they need to recapture Crimea, and this is the closest point. Russia knows this of course, so presumably will have prepared most its defences here. Crimea itself has been being fortified for years. In general, Putin cannot now surrender or withdraw from crimea (or any of Ukraine). It would be politically impossible. He would probably be content to be driven out militarily, and maybe could use a defeat to secure his own future position and more central control of the nation.
I think Russia expected a fairly easy win of some sort. But in many ways this war is win win for Putin, whatever happens. Or put that another way, he is angling to turn an unexpected military loss into a political victory at home. Russia will have restored national ownership of all its industrial assets, driven out many dissidents and in due course will still have secure export of its oil and gas.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2023 19:48:40 GMT
In terms of economic policy the LDs - and Starmer - are now well to the Right of where Tories were under Johnson. At least the latter was pragmatic and Hestletinian in his willingness to see greater state intervention - and showed little concern re- much higher levels of Public Borrowing. Well first off, all con administrations say they aim to help the worse off. Its standard rhetoric which never happens. But also we had that little covid epidemic which squandered a trillion pounds public and private. Some of that money had been earmarked to buffer the consequences of brexit but it was wasted on lockdown. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 2, 2023 20:10:37 GMT
There are many on here who prefer the purity of the totally clear conscience you can can have by sitting in impotent opposition, never doing anything but free to moan about the Tory government. I have no time for that attitude. I think lab are taking the view that con have been taken over by the extreme right/leave faction. These are too extreme even for many normal con voters. If lab can assume a standard con policy position, it can attract those voters, shrinking those left to con as the increasingly extreme rump. In the process lab may lose voters at the left end, but there is no real place for them to go except abstain or no hoper. The aim is for lab to end up with more votes than anyone else, and it can do this by fighting con for right wing voters. This could well leave 3/4 of voters to the left of both lab and con, but FPP prevents them electing anyone else. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 2, 2023 20:21:10 GMT
Any Labour supporters like to step in and support your party? That’d be me then. But first two questions - 1. What on earth are you doing posting here when you should be out canvassing (glad I am not your agent!). (Actually same goes - ahem - for pj). And 2. What on earth is/was your quarrel with Corbyn? Makes no sense in the light of everything else you have said. Some of your messages suggest it is just obvious. Well it isn’t to me. In supporting Starmer, I speak in support of political duplicity. It is essential in politics as it stands today. The one person who tried to stop this was Corbyn, and that was one of the causes of his downfall. You just do have to lie through the teeth. Two conditions: a. don’t get caught, and b. if you do, be sure to have a good story. I trust Starmer because of his antecedents and his experience. These are profoundly different from Blair and will lead him in a different direction. I think what has happened to Corbyn, Abbott and the left generally is diabolical, but, despite appearances, this is not down to Starmer. He has made hard political judgments and acted accordingly. I think he will be a great prime minister. Having said that, I fully support what Graham and others say. Without this sort of nagging and harassment, things are much more likely to slide, so nag on, guys. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 20:44:56 GMT
Any Labour supporters like to step in and support your party? That’d be me then. But first two questions - 1. What on earth are you doing posting here when you should be out canvassing (glad I am not your agent!). (Actually same goes - ahem - for pj). This is probably a boring subject to most, but the rhythm of political campaigning has changed somewhat from back in the 1980s when I was politically active the first time round - and the main driver of that is the prevalence of postal voting. We started with canvassing and two generic leaflet drops to all houses (with a gap in between obviously). Next was a glossier election address in target wards only. Then an addressed letter went out to identified supporters known to have postal votes timed to hit the letter boxes just before the delivery of the postal votes, because most people with postal votes fill them in immediately. About a week later an addressed letter to supporters without postal votes was delivered reminding them of the election, followed up this weekend with addressed reminder cards to known supporters (I was pounding the streets most of Monday). The final push will be door knocking, lift offering and 'sorry you were out, remember to vote' cards on election day, again only to supporters. I've been at a candidates and activists meeting this evening where the election organiser observed that most wards will have already been won and lost before anyone casts a physical vote on Thursday, due to the key importance of postal voting. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 21:05:24 GMT
But that is a non sequitur. Most of us now appalled by Starmer are not Corbynites - and never have been. To propse policies which would have been acceptable to the likes of Denis Healey, Roy Hattersley , John Smith implies no desire to sit in permanent opposition. Just let the man win the f*ing election because no one else is waiting in the wings to take it from the tories (not that that appears to bother you) A year or two after that you can judge. Openness and honesty unfortunately are not that useful in winning Labour elections with the English. To be honest I expect to be somewhat disappointed by a Starmer government, but it will still be 100 times better than five more years of Braverman, Badenoch, Dowden, etc and endless demonising of minorities and culture war crap while the Tories continue to loot the public purse for their own benefit. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2023 21:14:51 GMT
@rafwan
Unfortunately or fortunately I have a life outside politics .Family comes first.
My issue with Corbyn primarily related to his ineptitude during the Brexit campaign and that I felt he was incapable of attracting sufficient support from the floating vote in the key constituencies to ever win a general election.
As it happens unfortunately I was found right in both cases.
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Post by hireton on May 2, 2023 21:19:57 GMT
A view on interpreting Thursday's local election results:
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eor
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Post by eor on May 2, 2023 21:25:45 GMT
Graham, I wonder if voter (suppression) ID will impact turnout? Canvassed a council estate on Saturday and of the 60 or so people I spoke to 4 did not have voter ID. 2 wanted to vote Labour but don't know about the other 2. In addition to those without ID how many people will get there but go away because of the queues and how many will forget ID and not go back? On the other hand all parties have been encouraging postal votes which could increase turnout, let's see? - out of curiosity, when people tell you they intend to vote (at all) in local elections, do you have a rule of thumb for how many actually will? Just thinking that in a GE with maybe 70% turnout it's probably a fair bet that almost anyone giving a doorstep canvasser the time of day will actually go on and vote but for locals do you assume x% of the people who talk to you won't actually bother? Or do you figure that again if people are interested enough to stand and chat about it they're very likely to be in the minority that will go ahead and vote? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 21:38:58 GMT
@rafwan Unfortunately or fortunately I have a life outside politics .Family comes first. My issue with Corbyn primarily related to his ineptitude during the Brexit campaign and that I felt he was incapable of attracting sufficient support from the floating vote in the key constituencies to ever win a general election.As it happens unfortunately I was found right in both cases. He did a bit better than LDs did though Steve, and indeed better than are likely to do any time soon, so are you giving up with the LDs? Seriously though, Corbyn’s performance despite the right wing sabotage gets underplayed. People credit his gains in 2017 to May’s missteps in the campaign, but Corbyn’s gains dwarfed her falls  |
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Post by jimjam on May 2, 2023 21:42:16 GMT
EoR - I am pretty much a foot soldier in all this and don't crunch the numbers but, as per PJW above, do know that postal votes are becoming even more important especially with voter ID.
What we do get is a contact rate and then a %age saying vote Labour.
Then depending on the sample size and the ward dynamics (2 way or 3 way contest, how well the 3rd party tends to do etc) the strategy may change.
So in some wards we may simply concentrate on reminders to supporters, in tight ones keep calling on Don't Knows.
Like in GEs knocking up is generally reserved for what we believe are the marginal wards.
In 'no chance' wards we generally leave to the candidates and the close friends and family but will work on them afterwards with the GE in mind.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 21:42:51 GMT
Not only that but he continued gaining, and was above the Tories for a while after the GE, and then not far below for a while after that, before taking the lead again. Tories had to ditch their leader and move left to respond:  ://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election.svg |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 2, 2023 21:43:22 GMT
My take on today's Starmer comments. I am relaxed on the tuition fee one as I can also think of plenty of things I would rather see £9bn spent on. On the other hand I'm not happy with the tax policy. I would happy tax the rich until the pips squeaked (to borrow Healey's phrase). Starmer benefitted from free tuition fees himself in the early 1980s - yet is perfectly happy to deprive others. That was between 33 and 43 years ago, if my maths serves me, times move on, governments move on, parties move on, electorates move on, but some get stuck over one issue. And I'd still like to know which party those guys will vote for? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 21:44:31 GMT
Corbyn did better than Starmer until Tories imploded, and the race isn’t run yet.
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eor
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Post by eor on May 2, 2023 21:45:14 GMT
News this morning included that food inflation rate rose again last month. Notwithstanding predictions it would fall. The explanation given was that the big surge in commodity prices which originally caused the rate to shoot up takes a long time to work through the system. Thats all very well, but its a general principle which maybe ought to have been given more consideration at the outset. Another consideration would be that the minimum wage rose by 9.7% in April - that alone would surely have a fairly profound impact at several points in the food supply chain? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 21:52:29 GMT
Corbyn did better than Starmer until Tories imploded, and the race isn’t run yet. Sorry, but that is not even remotely true. Corbyn was never 20%+ ahead or even 14%+ ahead. That may have more to do with the Tories than either Corbyn or Starmer, but facts are facts. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2023 21:52:34 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wWell the lib dems did increase their vote by 50% between 2017 and 19 and of course the Tory vote did go up by 5.5% in 2017 as well Labour's rose by 9.6% a swing of around 4% and a loss By approaching a million votes By comparison in 1997'Labour vote rise by 8.8% while the Tories fell by 11.2% a swing of around 19% with Labour nearly four million votes ahead Yet Corbynites insist that the loss to May was somehow a success.Smaller parties such as the Lib dems and of course the SNP who suffered a far greater percentage loss than the Lib dems were squeezed by the increased vote by Labour and Tory that's true.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 21:54:36 GMT
Starmer benefitted from free tuition fees himself in the early 1980s - yet is perfectly happy to deprive others. That was between 33 and 43 years ago, if my maths serves me, times move on, governments move on, parties move on, electorates move on, but some get stuck over one issue. And I'd still like to know which party those guys will vote for? Graham - Green (no 'e') |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 21:57:07 GMT
Corbyn did better than Starmer until Tories imploded, and the race isn’t run yet. Sorry, but that is not even remotely true. Corbyn was never 20%+ ahead or even 14%+ ahead. That may have more to do with the Tories than either Corbyn or Starmer, but facts are facts. Depends what you compare, I was looking at Labour VI, not the gap between Labour and Tories, which was massively affected by the implosions over partygate then Truss. Corbyn stayed above 40% for quite a while after the GE for eggers. |
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Post by Rafwan on May 2, 2023 22:01:38 GMT
… you should be out canvassing … A deeply unpleasant and thoughtless remark, borne of envy, admiration and gratitude. I am ashamed. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 22:03:08 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 22:05:57 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Well the lib dems did increase their vote by 50% between 2017 and 19 and of course the Tory vote did go up by 5.5% in 2017 as well Labour's rose by 9.6% a swing of around 4% and a loss By approaching a million votes By comparison in 1997'Labour vote rise by 8.8% while the Tories fell by 11.2% a swing of around 19% with Labour nearly four million votes ahead Yet Corbynites insist that the loss to May was somehow a success.Smaller parties such as the Lib dems and of course the SNP who suffered a far greater percentage loss than the Lib dems were squeezed by the increased vote by Labour and Tory that's true. The Lib Dem’s did improve, and take a look how Labour’s votes fell and then rose near GE 2019, as LDs rose then fell in mirror image! Obviously Labour lost, but then we have to pretend impact of Blairites in the lead up to 2017 had no impact. He clearly had a reasonable chance to win given the gains in the campaign and how things continued rising after the GE. Harder in 2019 but he was ahead till Tories changed tack and changed leader. Generally governments are in the driving seat and it depends how they respond. We shall see if Sunak turns it round too. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 2, 2023 22:06:11 GMT
… you should be out canvassing … A deeply unpleasant and thoughtless remark, borne of envy, admiration and gratitude. I am ashamed. Can't speak for Steve, but I didn't mind - let me make a serious point about the changing nature of political campaigning. There is other stuff - hardly anyone will put a poster up now and people are increasingly reluctant even to open the door compared to 40 years ago. |
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Post by graham on May 2, 2023 22:06:59 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Well the lib dems did increase their vote by 50% between 2017 and 19 and of course the Tory vote did go up by 5.5% in 2017 as well Labour's rose by 9.6% a swing of around 4% and a loss By approaching a million votes By comparison in 1997'Labour vote rise by 8.8% while the Tories fell by 11.2% a swing of around 19% with Labour nearly four million votes ahead Yet Corbynites insist that the loss to May was somehow a success.Smaller parties such as the Lib dems and of course the SNP who suffered a far greater percentage loss than the Lib dems were squeezed by the increased vote by Labour and Tory that's true. You clearly do not understand how 'swing' is calculated. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 22:08:27 GMT
I’m not making a case for Corbyn and never have. It’s just that his performance and the changes Tories had to make tends to get glossed over. (As does the potential effect of the actions of the right). |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2023 22:10:10 GMT
@rafwan
Actually I've been rather preoccupied with my very pregnant daughter, she's just 4ft 11 and her partner is 6ft 4 and it's quite a logistical exercise getting her in and out of the car while getting her to and from work.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 2, 2023 22:12:08 GMT
grahamI do but I did mean percentage. You clearly don't understand the difference between one million fewer votes and four million more!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 2, 2023 22:14:16 GMT
That’d be me then. But first two questions - 1. What on earth are you doing posting here when you should be out canvassing (glad I am not your agent!). (Actually same goes - ahem - for pj). This is probably a boring subject to most, but the rhythm of political campaigning has changed somewhat from back in the 1980s when I was politically active the first time round - Can’t say I recall anyone complaining if people talk about what’s involved in campaigning. I do find it interesting myself, reading people’s accounts, being as it’s something rather outside my experience. |
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