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Post by jib on May 3, 2023 7:18:01 GMT
jib You do understand that Mel Gibson 's portrayal of William Wallace is totally devoid of any factual basis, is a fantasy, entirely consistent with your posts on brexit. With tomorrow being Star Wars day, I think you'd be the miserable old nag in the Cantina bar complaining that the Rebel Alliance took your freedom of movement away in the Galactic Empire from you! No, the Federalist Death Star is no more! |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:23:54 GMT
EoR - I am pretty much a foot soldier in all this and don't crunch the numbers but, as per PJW above, do know that postal votes are becoming even more important especially with voter ID. It is logical that one effect of requiring voter ID would be to push more towards postal voting, which doesnt need it. Now this raises its own issues because the votes will be cast well before polling day. So all the headline seeking and issue debating this week will have been too late to have any effect. The changes will have the effect of making last minute, or last week, campaigning irrelevant. |
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Post by barbara on May 3, 2023 7:28:14 GMT
Increasingly it looks as if a vote for Starmer is a vote to cement the Tory legacy - just as a Labour vote in 1997 was a vote to confirm the Thatcherite legacy. Not interested. And yet for the sake of your own pique you are interested in being an enabler for a tory party that is willing to demonise and cause suffering not only to refugees who have undergone extreme hardship but also established British communities, to make them doubt their place here, to cause anxiety for them and their children. It's always interesting to see where people's priorities lie. Gives a good insight into their sense of morality. More interested in parading their own self righteous than voting in the best interests of the country. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:31:22 GMT
What about all the unprecedented handouts to help with fuel costs? I suppose that doesn't count because the Tories did it? It doesnt count first because it was not designed to help the poor, it wasnt redistributive. And second because con essentailly had no choice but to do it, so it wasnt their policy at all. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 7:31:32 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 7:34:46 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:38:10 GMT
So, to 1983, and people blame Foot and his policies for the electoral outcome. But actually Foot was doing rather well, until two things happened: firstly, the splitting of the vote once the SDP broke away, and you can see how the Labour vote falls in tandem with the rise of the Alliance vote following the Limehouse Declaration etc.:  For some time labour has moved determinedly to the right. Moderate right in Blair terms, but now hard right. Blair was chasing major, who was quite moderate compared to the current lot. Starmer is chasing the UKIP hard right current con government. But your graph arguably explains why. Labour has kept losing because the left vote is split between them and libs/SDP/someone. And so they have adopted a policy of chasing the right vote, which both makes up for losing the left and also drains con support because they have nowhere further right to go. As a strategy to attain power that may work. As a strategy to satisfy left leaning citizens it stinks. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:42:13 GMT
And in another example of not taking all variables into account, some liked to credit Thatcher policies for the fall in inflation, but the collapse in oil price that occurred at the same time and which saw inflation fall elsewhere, ushering in a world boom, was global, not down to Thatcher: Whats worrying about that is that all the claims of policies imposed to end inflation working...were false. So the hike in interest rates now supposedly to end inflation...is rather unlikely to do so. It seems more likely high interest policy is designed to force poorly paid workers to accept even worse wages, so that well paid workers can continue to get further rises. So the trend of more to the already rich and less to the poor can continue. |
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2023 7:42:27 GMT
Fisher coming in with much smaller numbers than generally been talked about (ie Rallings and Thresher): electionsetc.com/2023/05/03/local-elections-seat-projections-for-2023/Table 2. Forecasts for English local election net seat gains/losses for 2023 Forecast Con -490 Lab +400 LD +20 Others +70 Personally I think either one of the models is possible as there are too many variables in terms of who turns up to vote and how much activity local campaigners have done. This one seems particularly low for the Lib Dems, although I suppose in 2019 they did have a niche market for remain protest votes. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:46:04 GMT
mercian "I am the type of 'brexitanian' who would rather be poor with the ability to democratically kick out my rulers than rich and without that ability" Then you are in the tiny minority. Because about 85% of leavers expected there would be either no economic cost or a benefit. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 7:58:36 GMT
This morning news was about further relaxation of rules for companies listing on Uk stock exchange. i say further, because apparently they already did this to try to stop companies moving elsewhere. Didnt work.
The result will be that stock holders have fewer rights to hold the company to account.
The spokesman being interviewed about this had a couple of other interesting things to say. One was that it isnt just companies leaving the UK stock exchange but in general more and more companies are ceasing to be publicly owned but becoming privately owned. Public share ownership is a keystone of socialism, ownership of the means of production by the workforce. And here we are, moving into an era where all the means of production are owned by a rich elite. This trend is of course being furthered by tax regimes which refuse to tax asset ownership by the rich. Instead concentrating on taxing the income of the poor.
There was also a passing reference to declining share ownership by pension funds. So the masses don't even own production in terms of the only financial asset they may have, their pension.
Another expert they interviewed opined that London simply does not have sufficient liquidity. Just not enough cash to but shares, so companies are likely to end up with a higher share price if listed elsewhere.
Plainly Brexit is busy eroding the Uk finance industry just as certainly as it is the vehicle industry. Its just inevitable.
But con decided they needed that UKIP vote share to get power, and the cost to the nation of brexit didnt matter.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 8:01:02 GMT
Sometimes people might wonder why I often post unaccompanied pictures.
Following an assault over thirty years ago I was left with a fractured skull and long term but fortunately minor repercussions.
This means that sometimes the words can appear jumbled to me and I have to re-read what I've written often several time to see if I actually wrote what I thought I wrote.
It's a pain in the arse!
Today's one of those days.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 8:02:53 GMT
Russian naval vessels confirmed to have conducted activities over the exploded Nordstream gas pipelines. Not really a surprise.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 3, 2023 8:15:52 GMT
Sometimes people might wonder why I often post unaccompanied pictures. Following an assault over thirty years ago I was left with a fractured skull and long term but fortunately minor repercussions. This means that sometimes the words can appear jumbled to me and I have to re-read what I've written often several time to see if I actually wrote what I thought I wrote. It's a pain in the arse! Today's one of those days. hey mate, most of us get that without having been hit on the head. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 3, 2023 8:39:39 GMT
Sometimes people might wonder why I often post unaccompanied pictures. Following an assault over thirty years ago I was left with a fractured skull and long term but fortunately minor repercussions. This means that sometimes the words can appear jumbled to me and I have to re-read what I've written often several time to see if I actually wrote what I thought I wrote. It's a pain in the arse! Today's one of those days. I prefer it when you just post the pictures  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 8:51:01 GMT
Bardin so do I!  |
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Post by wb61 on May 3, 2023 9:20:20 GMT
I think I may have written this before (I am a dog person, cats are too right wing for my liking) the old saying around here is "Dogs have masters, Cats have servants" |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 9:23:19 GMT
Re Corbyn and the voters who deserted Labour in 2019. These were the YouGov findings at the time: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/23/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour The largest reason for not voting Labour again was 'Leadership/Corbyn' with 35%. 19% cited Brexit, two-thirds of them Leavers, and one-third Remainers. 16% cited 'economic competence'. To some extent, these were constant issues when Corbyn was Labour leader: in 5 years as leader, he never led either May or Johnson in a 'Best PM' poll; and Labour never had a lead on 'which party do you trust on the economy?' or similar questions. |
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Post by shevii on May 3, 2023 9:51:08 GMT
Unscientific? You decide!
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Post by Rafwan on May 3, 2023 10:28:15 GMT
So, to 1983, and people blame Foot and his policies for the electoral outcome. But actually Foot was doing rather well, until two things happened: firstly, the splitting of the vote once the SDP broke away, and you can see how the Labour vote falls in tandem with the rise of the Alliance vote following the Limehouse Declaration etc.: There was also, of course, the Falklands War, perhaps an early example of a 'culture war'? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 10:34:33 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 3, 2023 10:39:49 GMT
Rafwan There was also, of course, the Falklands War, perhaps an early example of a 'culture war'? Indeed also an example of a failing far right dictatorship seeking to distract from internal failures by flag waving, I'm talking about Argentina but similar factors were at work in the U.K. then and now. No criticism of the British forces personnel who did a remarkable job.
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Post by wb61 on May 3, 2023 10:44:27 GMT
Rafwan There was also, of course, the Falklands War, perhaps an early example of a 'culture war'? Indeed also an example of a failing far right dictatorship seeking to distract from internal failures by flag waving, I'm talking about Argentina but similar factors were at work in the U.K. then and now. No criticism of the British forces personnel who did a remarkable job. This may be of interest in respect of that chapter of history, showing how a different approach 5 years earlier seemed to avert a military conflict www.theguardian.com/uk/2005/jun/01/argentina.military |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 11:09:27 GMT
So, to 1983, and people blame Foot and his policies for the electoral outcome. But actually Foot was doing rather well, until two things happened: firstly, the splitting of the vote once the SDP broke away, and you can see how the Labour vote falls in tandem with the rise of the Alliance vote following the Limehouse Declaration etc.: There was also, of course, the Falklands War, perhaps an early example of a 'culture war'? There was indeed, though interestingly the Tories had made about half their gains, and on a steeply rising trend, before the war (which kinda matches with the fall in inflation) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 11:14:21 GMT
Rafwan There was also, of course, the Falklands War, perhaps an early example of a 'culture war'? Indeed also an example of a failing far right dictatorship seeking to distract from internal failures by flag waving, I'm talking about Argentina but similar factors were at work in the U.K. then and now. No criticism of the British forces personnel who did a remarkable job. IIRC, David Owen said that whenever there were rumblings from Argies, they would send a destroyer down there to loiter over the horizon. He couldn’t understand why when there were rumblings again, Thatch removed the only ship in the area EDIT: I see wb61 has provided a more elaborate link on the matter! |
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Post by Rafwan on May 3, 2023 11:22:16 GMT
@rafwan My issue with Corbyn primarily related to his ineptitude during the Brexit campaign and that I felt he was incapable of attracting sufficient support from the floating vote in the key constituencies to ever win a general election. As it happens unfortunately I was found right in both cases. On the first one, Corbyn successfully got 68% of Labour voters out in favour of the EU (about the same as the overall vote in 1975), with less than a third being brexity, and compared with the Tory break of 22/78. (This according to the YouGov data kindly provided by James E.) And on the second one, in 2017, Corbyn saw the biggest Labour increase between elections, since 1945. A bit more effort from dissenting factions would have done the trick. It may be you really do believe these claims, but they are pretty implausible and I think there are other reasons for your distaste and I would love to know what they are. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 3, 2023 11:24:33 GMT
Re Corbyn and the voters who deserted Labour in 2019. These were the YouGov findings at the time: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/23/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour The largest reason for not voting Labour again was 'Leadership/Corbyn' with 35%. 19% cited Brexit, two-thirds of them Leavers, and one-third Remainers. 16% cited 'economic competence'. To some extent, these were constant issues when Corbyn was Labour leader: in 5 years as leader, he never led either May or Johnson in a 'Best PM' poll; and Labour never had a lead on 'which party do you trust on the economy?' or similar questions. Yeah by 2019 there had been lots more time for the Blairite and media assault and for Tories, realising they were still behind despite the assault on Corbyn, to switch to BJ and position themselves more to the left. 2017 was the better chance since it caught some by surprise, to see left wing policies do better than expected, and they did wind up polling more than Tories for a while after the election |
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Post by Rafwan on May 3, 2023 11:45:48 GMT
@rafwan Actually I've been rather preoccupied with my very pregnant daughter, she's just 4ft 11 and her partner is 6ft 4 and it's quite a logistical exercise getting her in and out of the car while getting her to and from work. Will this be your first? I believe you said they are living with you for a time, so you will have a very close relationship with the infant. I don't know you personally, Steve, but somehow I have not the slightest doubt that you (and Faith) will be fabulous grandparents. I hope you get the same undiluted joy and pleasure as we have done over the last five years. I was wholly unprepared for the wellspring of sheer love that would be released in me. And the delight at fulfilling the primary role of grandparent, namely to provide unqualified indulgence as these poor creatures struggle with the horrifying realisation that they are not the only beings in the world. I should say though this is with two girls; I really can't speak for boys - snails and puppy dog tails and all that. |
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 11:52:51 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w "There was indeed, though interestingly the Tories had made about half their gains, and on a steeply rising trend, before the war (which kinda matches with the fall in inflation)" The graph you have linked suggests that, but the polls from that time do not. Looking at the polling averages from the time, the Con VI rose by about 4 points in the 4 months before the Faulklands war and by about 14 points in the aftermath. ConVI Nov/Dec 1981 Av 28% ConVI Late Feb/Mar 1982 Av 32% ConVI July/Aug 1982 Av 46% en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
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Post by James E on May 3, 2023 12:00:25 GMT
Re Corbyn and the voters who deserted Labour in 2019. These were the YouGov findings at the time: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/23/their-own-words-why-voters-abandoned-labour The largest reason for not voting Labour again was 'Leadership/Corbyn' with 35%. 19% cited Brexit, two-thirds of them Leavers, and one-third Remainers. 16% cited 'economic competence'. To some extent, these were constant issues when Corbyn was Labour leader: in 5 years as leader, he never led either May or Johnson in a 'Best PM' poll; and Labour never had a lead on 'which party do you trust on the economy?' or similar questions. Yeah by 2019 there had been lots more time for the Blairite and media assault and for Tories, realising they were still behind despite the assault on Corbyn, to switch to BJ and position themselves more to the left. 2017 was the better chance since it caught some by surprise, to see left wing policies do better than expected, and they did wind up polling more than Tories for a while after the election All Leaders of the Opposition in living memory have leads in some polls - even the likes of William Hague, Ian Duncan Smith (link below) and Michael Foot. d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/YG-Archives-pol-dTel-JulyTracker-030729.pdfMy point was that Corbyn never achieved any lead in the kind of polls that suggest an underlying lead - such as those on economic trust or 'Best PM'. The same was true for Ed Milliband. |
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