26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[Danny]

Nov 27, 2022 17:48:43 GMT steve said:

"Keir Starmer has ruled (today) out bringing back free movement of people between Britain and the EU, saying it would be a “red line” for Labour if it gets into power – despite supporting the policy just three years ago..

Then maybe its better to vote con so another incomptent con government scrapes into power and we can watch Brexit continue to destroy it.....

Nov 27, 2022 13:42:16 GMT johntel said:

Of course it is. But did she say how she's planning to pay for it?

if she required enough planning consents to be granted then the cost per home would be halved straight away because the land cost would be negligible.

[alec]

ptarmigan - "For instance, Blair era Labour had some quite authoritarian tendencies when it came to crime and immigration."

Christ almighty!

You have a choice. It's either Labour, or Suella Braverman at the Home Office.

Do you actually understand the world we're living in?

Edit: I have subsequently apologised to ptarmigan for the tone of this post, which I think is unnecessarily harsh. I've left the offending post intact as I prefer to leave mistakes on view rather than erase them.

[Danny]

Growing unrest in China because of its policy of zero covid. Governments everywhere else in the world, and even posters here such as alec should pay attention at what happens if you really try to eradicate covid.

Based on the news so far that most infected people do not actually have symptoms, China abandoning lockdowns shouldnt cause major problems, but serious cases have always come from the old, who are protected from infection because they dont work. So the risk remains that all they have accomplished with four years of lockdown is to delay the wave of deaths which still awaits. Presumably that is what they fear, or they would have abandoned lockdowns already.


Meanwhile, R4 reported a study showing Brexit has cost the UK 4,000 GPs. Didnt list the numbers for other specialties, just said affects all sorts of doctors.

And another item talking about half the world's semiconductrs being manufactured in Taiwan. Which is a disaster waiting to happen when China finally decides to invade Taiwan. Expert asked about this said the Uk is really too small to do anything about this risk for itself, but it could take part in an EU wide plan to become less dependant on foreign suppliers. Oh the perils of Brexit, that the EU may secure its essential imports leaving Britain one of the most isolated and at risk nations in the world.

[moby]

Nov 27, 2022 18:09:15 GMT oldnat said:

steve

Shh. You'll offend domjg by "undermining Labour at every opportunity." Supporters of other parties aren't supposed to do that (in his world).

Realpolitiks in the UK is a fact of life if you are to win elections, (especially given we are still possibly two years out from one). steve thinks the Labour Party should already be campaigning on returning to closer links with the EU again. From what I've seen in membership meetings though people don't really want to talk about our relationship with the EU; the cost of living crisis, NHS, housing, energy is front and centre of the agenda. I'm sure the SNP will continue to make hay with this UK tension to achieve their own objectives. You don't always have to follow the script though oldnat, you could change the record sometimes? After all many of us want the same ultimate outcomes, it's just that the paths ahead are easier for some.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 6:50:08 GMT alec said:

ptarmigan - "For instance, Blair era Labour had some quite authoritarian tendencies when it came to crime and immigration."
Christ almighty!You have a choice. It's either Labour, or Suella Braverman at the Home Office. Do you actually understand the world we're living in?

Doesnt this rather illustrate how powerless governments often are? The policy of sending all our immigrants to Rwanda is in tatters, while it has proved impossible to prevent people in France quite lawfully setting off across the sea to Britain, where by international convention they can claim assylum and most do.

She knows this, and thats why the policy has become quite deliberately to stop processing these arrivals, so they never get granted the right to stay. She has tried to keep them in detention camps, but that policy just collapsed anyway. Instead we end up with them housed in hotels at massive expense. All in all the policy is in total collapse and just discrediting the government because they cannot stop the arrivals, cannot get rid of them somewhere, are spending a fortune housing them and finally not putting them to work in the face of a labour shortage.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 7:11:28 GMT moby said:

Realpolitiks in the UK is a fact of life if you are to win elections, (especially given we are still possibly two years out from one). steve thinks the Labour Party should already be campaigning on returning to closer links with the EU again. From what I've seen in membership meetings though people don't really want to talk about our relationship with the EU; the cost of living crisis, NHS, housing, energy is front and centre of the agenda.

yeah, but if we were in the EU then national finances would be looking a lot better and thus provide the money for other things. The exact opposite of the lie told by leave. Until you deal with that lie you simply allow the UK economy to continue deteriorating and making fulfilling the wishes of votes harder and harder.

[moby]

Nov 28, 2022 7:17:25 GMT Danny said:

Nov 28, 2022 7:11:28 GMT moby said:

Realpolitiks in the UK is a fact of life if you are to win elections, (especially given we are still possibly two years out from one). steve thinks the Labour Party should already be campaigning on returning to closer links with the EU again. From what I've seen in membership meetings though people don't really want to talk about our relationship with the EU; the cost of living crisis, NHS, housing, energy is front and centre of the agenda.

yeah, but if we were in the EU then national finances would be looking a lot better and thus provide the money for other things. The exact opposite of the lie told by leave. Until you deal with that lie you simply allow the UK economy to continue deteriorating and making fulfilling the wishes of votes harder and harder.

I know I know Danny but it takes time to sink in and it's not going to happen as soon as some of us want.

[Danny]

Nov 27, 2022 20:34:49 GMT graham said:

To be frank, Brexit has never held much salience for me- and I always held a middle of the road position on the issue whilst having little time for the ardent campaigners on both sides. I did in fact vote Leave - because I came to the view that denying  Cameron a political victory was paramount in the context of the style of politics being foisted on the country by him. He had secured re-election in 2015 by scaremongering - and he tried the same trick at the London Mayoral election a year later  -though he ended up with a bloody nose in May 2016. In the Brexit campaign he and Osborne were blatantly exaggerating the likely immediate consequences of a Leave vote - eg 'a severe recession within six months of such a vote' - and that persuaded me as someone with 50/50 views on the issue anyway to give priority to denying him a victory- much as I loathed the messages of Johnson, Farage et al.I never saw a Leave vote in principle as a green light to accept any Leave deal subsequently negotiated , and believe that- from the outset - there should have been a commitment to a further Confirmatory Referendum once the terms were known.  Presented with a choice between Remain and Johnson's Deal I would have voted Remain - and believe the electorate would have taken the same view.

[/div]

However, that is now 'water under the bridge'

[/quote]AH but it isnt, and cannot be, because Brexit has fundamentally undermined the Uk economy in a way we cannot repair except by rejoining, whether fully or by some deal avoiding the word membership.

In 2015 Cameron achieved re-election by promising the referendum and thereby securing hard leave votes. Helped that libs had shown themselves incompetent at being a real voice in government andn instead had betrayed their members by supporting con unquestioningly.

Its hard now to think back to 2015 and exacly what was promised, but I seem to receall everyone believed that if we voted for brexit it would happen within the year. All its effects would be so much faster and therefore we would get a quick recession. Well, if you did compress all the brexit effects thus far into six months then we would have had a recession. As it has turned out, con first deliberately delayed the actual date of brexit as long as they possibly could to give more time for adjustments. Maybe that would always have happened so Cameron was wrong o n that basis, but he wasnt wrong how bad the effects of brexit will ultimately be if they are allowed to continue. Its a recipe for steady decline of the UK which is pretty much inevitable. We joined the EU as a replacement for our lost empire. There still isnt anywhere else for the Uk to go unless we wnat to pledge ourselves as vassal states of Russia or China? Not that that would generate the gains claimed by leavers either.

Very foolish of you to vote for the policies of people you now say you loathed, but that was your mistake wich still has to be undone. If you now have to hold your nose even more to vote to rejoin, thats still what must be done. There visnt a choice, and the political parties will be forced to come round to that. I have said several times we may end up in 2029 or so with con standing on rejoin or something to that effect, if labour do not do that first.

[steve]

moby

It's been five years since I was Last at a Labour party meeting.
But at a guess if your party leader has a policy that 80%+ of party members oppose it's probably human nature to want to talk about something else.

I'm aware of the shit choices that fptp provides which is why I will probably vote Labour at the next general election locally as the best opportunity to get rid of our Tory mp, a few weeks ago that would have been definitely.

But much more of this nationalist brexitainan twoddle and focus on the illusory traditional a bit racist white working class Labour voter ( who last voted Labour in 1975) while ignoring the real and potential Labour voters isn't just frustrating it's bad politics and there's a limit to realpolitiks.

It's possible that Starmer can clutch failure out of the jaws of an obvious overwhelming victory by sufficiently irritating the support base who look at the local situation and think well the lib dems have beaten Tories before and at least their not a bunch of brexitanian luddites.

As a liberal democrat member of course I would love to see a Labour party dependent on lib dems in parliament , we'd have adults in the room when it came to our relationship with the European union and get PR, secretly I suspect Starmer might be a bit relieved as well.

[moby]

Nov 27, 2022 20:34:49 GMT graham said:

Nov 27, 2022 18:42:26 GMT Mark said:

The way things are going, I really, really can't see myself voting Labour at the next GE.

I live in a safe seat so don't need to worry about letting the tories in, but, even so.

Many of the floated Lab ideas/noises, from ruling out free movement, ID regarding elections and the 'naming and shaming' of those that buy a bit of weed run counter to what I would like to see.

Ok, maybe I'm not the typical UK voter (if there is such a thing), but, I can't be the only one that is seriously being put off by the noises I'm hearing.

I can empathasise with much of that and have expressed my own concerns over the last 18 months or so. To be frank, Brexit has never held much salience for me- and I always held a middle of the road position on the issue whilst having little time for the ardent campaigners on both sides. I did in fact vote Leave - because I came to the view that denying  Cameron a political victory was paramount in the context of the style of politics being foisted on the country by him. He had secured re-election in 2015 by scaremongering - and he tried the same trick at the London Mayoral election a year later  -though he ended up with a bloody nose in May 2016. In the Brexit campaign he and Osborne were blatantly exaggerating the likely immediate consequences of a Leave vote - eg 'a severe recession within six months of such a vote' - and that persuaded me as someone with 50/50 views on the issue anyway to give priority to denying him a victory- much as I loathed the messages of Johnson, Farage et al.I never saw a Leave vote in principle as a green light to accept any Leave deal subsequently negotiated , and believe that- from the outset - there should have been a commitment to a further Confirmatory Referendum once the terms were known.  Presented with a choice between Remain and Johnson's Deal I would have voted Remain - and believe the electorate would have taken the same view.

However, that is now 'water under the bridge' and I do strongly suspect that Brexit has long lost its electoral salience - beyond the commentariat and political anoraks who comment here. Perhaps Starmer has now reached a similar view. If so, I am not too concerned re- the Brexit issue itself - but I share the concerns relating to the mood music on wider policy issues. After the 1992 GE I did not vote Labour again at a Parliamentary election until 2015, and I hope that fears of warmed up Blairism do not in the end force me to withold my support in 2024.

Look oldnat what Starmer has to deal with, many of them within his own party. I suppose your SNP membership are more like the kids in The Midwich Cuckoos in comparison.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 7:20:45 GMT moby said:

I know I know Danny but it takes time to sink in and it's not going to happen as soon as some of us want.

The labour party had and still has a policy of not supporting remain, or now rejoin, for fear of offending leave supporters. Trying to get elected by not opposing the views of anyone else.

The problem with that is you cannot then enthuse any voters to your cause because you dont stand for anything. I continue to maintain Labour threw away the 2019 election because it refused to wholeheartedly promise remain. It should have made its stance in that election either second referendum to remain or unilateral cancelling of brexit and pushed the remain argument. On that ticket it could have won and would not have done any worse. Right now it would have been riding even higher than it is.

Labour shows all the signs of being an inclusive party which simply tries to hold too wide extremes of views. It didnt support Corbyn wholeheartedly as it needed to do having chosen him as leader, but instead parts of it tried to destroy Corbyn. It couldnt unite on a policy of opposing brexit which it needed to do in an election which was all about the two sides of for or against brexit. It refused to lead public opinion and therefore lost the election.

A political party has to have a cause, labour steadfastly refused to take sides in the biggest cause of our time so lost. Brexit isnt going away, it cannot because it affects the economy and continues to drag it down. We know how to boost the Uk economy-rejoin the EU. If labour doen not adopt that policy, conservatives will.

[steve]

. " I did in fact vote Leave - because I came to the view that denying Cameron a political victory was paramount in the context of the style of politics being foisted on the country by him. "

Well that worked out well didn't it!


If Brexit has lost its political salience despite the polling evidence that clearly indicates the opposite is true, Starmer's insistence on no fundamental change to Brexit will actually bring it back front and centre as the obvious damage being caused makes both major party leadership look increasingly devoid of contact with reality.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 7:53:33 GMT steve said:

.If Brexit has lost its political salience despite the polling evidence that clearly indicates the opposite is true, Starmer's insistence on no fundamental change to Brexit will actually bring it back front and centre as the obvious damage being caused makes both major party leadership look increasingly devoid of contact with reality.

I agree the libs best hope would be labour staying on the leave side of the fence leaving the ground open for them. Thats what happened in 2019 denying lab a victory and boosting the lib vote, but to little avail. The libs might do better on a re-run because they seem to have more appeal to disenchanted tort areas than lab. While lab are doing better because of what is seen as disastrous con management, although most of that perceived mismanagement is failure to deliver Brexit promises, so also refelcts on Brexit itself...which lab seems to be supporting!

Con seems to be holding up its reputation about tackling covid. Of course I argue that what happened in the Uk was little better than what happened in China, and is still playing out in china where there is growing civil revolt against covid restrictions. That would be happening here had con adopted Alec's advise and gone hard lockdown, still futilely trying to eradicate covid. But we know con MPs revolted against the policy, so it had to end. But what has really happened is finessing from a policy which was fundamentally counter productive to one of living with covid with nuanced and targeted interventions, which it always should have been, but wthout admitting to the public you got this fundamental decision wholly wrong in 2020. However, there is still more public realisation possible about how mistaken that policy was, which is why both lab and con are united in holding the line years of lockdown was essential.

[Mr Poppy]

Ahead of today's R&W then a quick look at last weeks x-breaks for GE'19 vote (and note demographics will help LAB into GE'24 as well)

CON'19:
CON: 53%
DK: 19%
LAB: 19% 14%- which should be x1.36 when comparing to flows the other way given CON got more votes in GE'19
RUK: 6%
WNV: 4%

LAB'19
LAB: 83% - much higher retention
DK: 6% - much lower uncertainty
CON: 3% - much lower switch to other parties
WNV: 2% - hardly any LAB'19 aren't going to vote

So, perhaps UKPR2a is not that representative (or gen.pub is slow to react). LAB are getting shed loads more CON'19 votes than they are loosing to DK or WNV. Those votes will also be in the 'right places' (ie seats currently held by CON). If a few 'far-left' LAB voters don't vote LAB in GE'24 then it won't cost Sir Keir any seats, as those types of seats are either very safe LAB or have shed loads of CON'19 votes or CON'19 abstentions offsetting a few LAB WNVs.

A lot of 'economically Centre-Left, socially Centre-Right, with a dash of Green' voters see that LAB is under New management and isn't going to drag UK back into years of divisive negotiations with Brussels then IMO those voters will be actively voting for LAB (led by Sir Keir, Rachel and Miliband) and not just be ABCON.

The only way to beat the Tories, is to kiss them and their policies (Blair got it, Sir Keir gets it). Corbyn showed you can't win a GE from the Far-Left. You can only win a GE from 'Centre' (and for E&W then Centre is a smidge to the left on economic axis and to the right on the social axes, with a dash of green)

IMO we're into 'poll drums'. If Rishi+Braverman start getting serious about illegal immigration then maybe CON VI picks up a bit from drop in DK, WNV and loses to RUK. If they continue with the 'rats in the sack' and Sir Keir continues to show he is 'continuity Tory' then even more CON'19 will move to LAB VI.

Well played Sir Keir, well player Sir. 

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-20-november-2022/

[barbara]

Nov 28, 2022 0:11:57 GMT steve said:

ladyvalerie
Being better than the Tories is a pretty low bar.
Are you happy with Starmer conspiring with stealing our rights to free movement and red lining any effort to recover them, despite assuring us all that that was his intention just two years ago?
Because if you are it appears somewhat indiscriminate support.

I don't care what Starmer does. He has to be better than what we've had for the last 12 years. At 69 I've lost my intransigent idealism, I just want the Tories out and voting Labour (and tactically Lib Dem)  is only way to do it. Bring it on.

[Danny]

The reporting from China seems to be that people frankly would prefer to have covid with all the predicted deaths than not get their ordinary lives back. Lockdown just isnt worth it.

The irony is we really do not know the true state of immunity in China. That they are getting lots of people testing positive doesnt mean anything if those people never get sick, or never get sicker than we are in the uk. Similarly there seem to be lots of claims the chinese own vaccines dont work well. But nor do western vaccines if the measure is preventing new cases of covid. So in reality the situation could be a massive lockdown which is utterly pointless because there would be few deaths anyway.

The risk for the chinese government is that if they now relax lockdown and few die...then why did they impose lockdown for four years? Its pretty likely their outcomes absent any intervention would have been a low death rate compared to other nations, because its highly likely China had high levels of immunity to covid from the outset because it seems to have hosted the disease in animals for generations or centuries. Crossover would have generated immunity.

And if lockdown in China does collapse with no ill effects to health, the lesson for the rest of the world is clear too. What was the point of it anywhere?

[steve]

@danny
I think part of the issue in China fueling the protest against pointless lock down is that no one is actually predicting many deaths.

China has reported one ( yes 1) death from covid not in the last day or week but the last 7 months. This hasn't meant there have been no cases while there has been a significant increase to tens of thousands a day recently despite the draconian restriction case rates of hundreds a day have been recorded throughout the year, with no deaths reported.
Vaccination rates are high in China but even so with an ageing population these figures are remarkably low, of  course given that it's a dictatorship  and it's lying it's worth looking elsewhere for the data.
Johns Hopkins estimates the actual death  rate is around 10 a day but this is still remarkably low , pro rata under 1% of the current rate in the U.K..

The lockdown measures using any data set are utterly disproportionate.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 8:19:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

LAB: 83% - much higher retention

Hardly brilliant given con have messed up so much. Would be interesting to see a breakdown why they are defecting lab to con.

The only way to beat the Tories, is to kiss them and their policies.

Haha no! Thats how you BECOME tories. Your plan is that labour become tories, and then if lab wins the next election it relly wont matter because it will be tories replacing conservatives. No change at all.

What you are trying to push is the demise of socialist policies in the UK. Create two parties in a two party monopoly system neither of which represents actual voters wishes. Its how you rule against the wishes of the people while giving the appearence of representing them.

Con successfully destroyed a growing threat to them and their policies from libs by taking them onboard and tricking them into becoming con. Similarly they defused UKIP by pretending to take on board brexit. Con never believed in brexit, and while it has now come to dominate the party, it too will be dumped in the next decade by con because it is already much less attractive and will be a vote loser.

Corbyn showed you can't win a GE from the Far-Left.

He did not. He showed you cannot win an election if you oppose the strongest wish of your voter block, which was and is remain.

You can only win a GE from 'Centre'

No. You win from the extremes. Most of con or lab votes are not from the centre. Their strategy has been to disappoint their main blocks of voters so as to be more attractive to the centre. Short term can be a winner, but long term it eventually destroys your voter base. And that is where we are now. Both sides.

Just watch what happens if the public realises lockdown was a mistake and waste of mney that is desperately needed now. Step change further downwards in real support for both con and lab.

[Danny]

Nov 28, 2022 8:35:40 GMT steve said:

@danny
I think part of the issue in China fueling the protest against pointless lock down is that no one is actually predicting many deaths.

China has reported one ( yes 1) death from covid not in the last day or week but the last 7 months.

It has always had the lowest death rate in the world. Unless you believe its very first report which was approximately that it had 100 people in hospital with a dangerous new disease all of whom were very ill and many like to die. That set the scene for the whole world's reaction when the reality for China was always going to be one of the lowest death rates from covid anywhere.

The world's over reaction to covid was significantly because of how China reacted. It would be quite the irony if that reaction now brought down the Chinese regime. (doubt it will though)

[Danny]

Sunak seems to be coming round to allowing onshore wind. Its funny how 20 years ago I was in Denmark, where there were already more wind turbines anywhere you looked than there are in the Uk now. And thats why they are hittingn 100% electricity generation from wind.

That could have been us too if not for con policy. Any pensioners who voted con and now have a horrific energy bill, take note.

[Danny]

ISW yesterday reported they anticipate a resurgence of activity by Ukraine once the ground freezes hard, in a few weeks.

Today they report on Russian preparations throughout occupied Kherson oblast. It suggest the Russians do not believe they will be able to prevent Ukraine crossing the river when they are ready, nor holding a line against them, but have instead been trying to fortify the entire occupied region in readiness for falling back from position to position. However at least currently, their view seems to be those defences are too localised and therefore inadequate.


Journalist on R4 who has been in Ukraine and followed the war reporting the Russian strategy seems to be to just keep the war going as long as they can so the west will lose interest or bow to the pain it is suffering economically and therefore sue for peace. leaving Russia with whatever land it still holds at that time.

Russian tactics suggest they believe they are losing and will eventually lose unless the west stops supporting Ukraine, so that their best bet, to hold out as long as they can until the west ends its support.

[johntel]

Nov 28, 2022 6:50:08 GMT alec said:

ptarmigan - "For instance, Blair era Labour had some quite authoritarian tendencies when it came to crime and immigration."

Christ almighty!

You have a choice. It's either Labour, or Suella Braverman at the Home Office.

Do you actually understand the world we're living in?

No, you could have Labour/Lib Dem coalition which would be much better

[domjg]

Nov 28, 2022 8:53:30 GMT johntel said:

Nov 28, 2022 6:50:08 GMT alec said:

ptarmigan - "For instance, Blair era Labour had some quite authoritarian tendencies when it came to crime and immigration."

Christ almighty!

You have a choice. It's either Labour, or Suella Braverman at the Home Office.

Do you actually understand the world we're living in?

No, you could have Labour/Lib Dem coalition which would be much better

The Libdems I doubt will be planing to go into coalition with anyone ever again. They're not going to put themselves in the position of being cast as the fall guy again. The very word 'coalition' probably brings them out in cold sweats. No, it's got to be a Lab majority govt with a good amount of padding hopefully. 

[Danny]

Nov 27, 2022 20:41:14 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Maybe. Although we are also opening some spaceports etc.

Perhaps we would be better off opening some bus stations?

[johntel]

Nov 28, 2022 8:57:55 GMT domjg said:

Nov 28, 2022 8:53:30 GMT johntel said:

No, you could have Labour/Lib Dem coalition which would be much better

The Libdems I doubt will be planing to go into coalition with anyone ever again. They're not going to put themselves in the position of being cast as the fall guy again. The very word 'coalition' probably brings them out in cold sweats. No, it's got to be a Lab majority govt with a good amount of padding hopefully. 

Call it 'alliance' or any other acceptable term if you like domjg , it amounts to the same thing. Enough leverage to keep Labour honest. 

[neilj]

@danny
'Hardly brilliant given con have messed up so much. Would be interesting to see a breakdown why they are defecting lab to con'

As the figure for Labour to tory switch is only 3%, it could just be noise. Certainly don't think it should be the main issue to concern Labour. Perhaps the 6% don't know deserves some exploration, but I suspect gthat may be a mixture of Corbyn supporters and rejoiners feeling a little let down.

Having said all that Labour under Starmer is doing very well electorally.

[Danny]

Nov 27, 2022 23:02:07 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

JET recently set a record for fusion energy produced,

I seem to remember that Culham lab was placed where it was because it is close to large electricity generating plants...because it is a massive consumer of electrical energy and always has been. just to add some perspective to that comment. Fortunately they dont run it constantly or the electricity bill would have been unaffordable over the years. Maybe they have arrangements now only to run it when its windy.

[domjg]

Nov 28, 2022 7:11:28 GMT moby said:

Nov 27, 2022 18:09:15 GMT oldnat said:

steve

Shh. You'll offend domjg by "undermining Labour at every opportunity." Supporters of other parties aren't supposed to do that (in his world).

Realpolitiks in the UK is a fact of life if you are to win elections, (especially given we are still possibly two years out from one). steve thinks the Labour Party should already be campaigning on returning to closer links with the EU again. From what I've seen in membership meetings though people don't really want to talk about our relationship with the EU; the cost of living crisis, NHS, housing, energy is front and centre of the agenda. I'm sure the SNP will continue to make hay with this UK tension to achieve their own objectives. You don't always have to follow the script though oldnat , you could change the record sometimes? After all many of us want the same ultimate outcomes, it's just that the paths ahead are easier for some.

Obviously membership meetings are in no way representative of voters who are what matters but I don't understand why Starmer is quite so determined at this point to paint himself as as brexity as Johnson? He could be more vague and dogmatically ruling out a return to free movement (I think about our lost free movement when I hear that phrase) really annoyed me. Why go out of your way to make that point now? 
Do they have intelligence that the Tories have drawn up brexit attack lines and are just trying to neuter them before they see the light of day? 
Do they have private polling that shows that brexit and free movement may remain a vote defining issue for an important subset of voters, ie ex Tory voting redwallers?
Or are they just being ludicrously overcautious and risking themselves being way behind the curve of what's acceptable to the public? 

[Danny]

Following the link above from the Guardian, I flipped through its stories and it seems to have an awful lot which are critical of the conservative government and its record. That hasnt always been true.

I found another story just posted that Russia may be preparing to leave the Zaporizhzhia power station. It seems it has been stripping it of whatever it can remove. That could create a rather difficult situation for Ukraine, if Russia is declining responsibility for a dangerous installation but which is on the Russian occupied side of the Dniepro river.

Although a while back some strange activity at the fuel storage area had been reported, and it might be russia will take all the fuel rods with them. Thereby stealing several years worth of electricity generation. However that still wouldnt render the plant safe if abandoned. If it was quietly ruined beyond future use, that would probably suit Russia well.

[pjw1961]

Nov 28, 2022 8:19:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Ahead of today's R&W then a quick look at last weeks x-breaks for GE'19 vote (and note demographics will help LAB into GE'24 as well)

CON'19:
CON: 53%
DK: 19%
LAB: 19% - which should be x1.36 when comparing to flows the other way given CON got more votes in GE'19
RUK: 6%
WNV: 4%

LAB'19
LAB: 83% - much higher retention
DK: 6% - much lower uncertainty
CON: 3% - much lower switch to other parties
WNV: 2% - hardly any LAB'19 aren't going to vote

So, perhaps UKPR2a is not that representative (or gen.pub is slow to react). LAB are getting shed loads more CON'19 votes than they are loosing to DK or WNV. Those votes will also be in the 'right places' (ie seats currently held by CON). If a few 'far-left' LAB voters don't vote LAB in GE'24 then it won't cost Sir Keir any seats, as those types of seats are either very safe LAB or have shed loads of CON'19 votes or CON'19 abstentions offsetting a few LAB WNVs.

A lot of 'economically Centre-Left, socially Centre-Right, with a dash of Green' voters see that LAB is under New management and isn't going to drag UK back into years of divisive negotiations with Brussels then IMO those voters will be actively voting for LAB (led by Sir Keir, Rachel and Miliband) and not just be ABCON.

The only way to beat the Tories, is to kiss them and their policies (Blair got it, Sir Keir gets it). Corbyn showed you can't win a GE from the Far-Left. You can only win a GE from 'Centre' (and for E&W then Centre is a smidge to the left on economic axis and to the right on the social axes, with a dash of green)

IMO we're into 'poll drums'. If Rishi+Braverman start getting serious about illegal immigration then maybe CON VI picks up a bit from drop in DK, WNV and loses to RUK. If they continue with the 'rats in the sack' and Sir Keir continues to show he is 'continuity Tory' then even more CON'19 will move to LAB VI.

Well played Sir Keir, well player Sir. 

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-20-november-2022/

In fairness that is a very reasonable analysis. The only part I would quibble is "continuity Tory" at least as far as it extends to green policies. These look genuinely interesting and things that it is impossible to imagine the Conservatives being unified enough on this issue to do.