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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 6:37:11 GMT
Politics often isn't scientific and isn't just about polling either. I'm not ignoring the issues you mention and I'm not a right winger. I just don't see the world through your eyes. Talk about denying reality. The impact of things like unemployment, corporations inflating energy prices, inflated house prices is not just something seen through my eyes*. just as the adoption of left wing policies on things like price subsidies - as something necessary rather than radical - is also not something that only happened through my eyes. * (unless living in a simulation, which the way things are going, one might not rule out) You are misunderstanding me. Of course I think those issues matter. I'm saying they are huge issues though which will have a multitude of approaches/policies regarding intervention. Corbyn had an approach which wasn't going to work. I still campaigned for him though thinking it was better than anything else on offer.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 22, 2023 6:40:12 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 6:41:20 GMT
Talk about denying reality. The impact of things like unemployment, corporations inflating energy prices, inflated house prices is not just something seen through my eyes*. just as the adoption of left wing policies on things like price subsidies - as something necessary rather than radical - is also not something that only happened through my eyes. * (unless living in a simulation, which the way things are going, one might not rule out) You are misunderstanding me. Of course I think those issues matter. I'm saying they are huge issues though which will have a multitude of approaches/policies regarding intervention. Corbyn had an approach which wasn't going to work. I still campaigned for him though thinking it was better than anything else on offer. Well, Corbyn’s approach is one thing. Dismissing the policies as too radical is something else. And the lack of interest in the policies and the willingness to just accept things like house prices by some activists is something else again. (But it’s possible that like many right wingers it seems, that one might lead a double life whereby when campaigning are wildly enthusiastic about the left wing stuff and discuss it avidly in detail, but online are more right wing, show little interest in the policies and dismiss it all as too radical).
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 6:45:26 GMT
My 2c. Being "bullied" was once considered a "rite of passage" as you started as a 'grunt' and worked your way up. The very same argument has been used to justify all sorts of bullying behaviours. Thankfully things have now changed. That's a good thing.
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 22, 2023 6:47:12 GMT
A woman who went viral in an online video of her trying to find her missing parrot, an African grey named Chanel, has been charged over a £792,000 cannabis haul.
"Sandra Hannah, 43, became a social media sensation during the first Covid lockdown in 2020 after her pet parrot flew away from home, prompting a frantic search.
On Friday, Merseyside police said they had charged her and Ian Hannah, 55, with the importation of cannabis and possession of criminal property.
Police said it followed a joint operation between the Sefton investigations team and the National Crime Agency, which led to the discovery of 237.6kg of cannabis resin imported from Spain, valued at approximately £792,000.
Pictures shared by the force on social media showed large tubs labelled as citronella used to disguise the substance."
The parrot turned grass , he was only in it for the Trill!
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 6:54:24 GMT
moby We haven't seen the Labour party manifesto yet but if it contains such gems as grow the economy by "making Brexit work" and no return to freedom of movement it really won't be based on reality. It will simply take the majority of progressive Labour supporters for granted, while throwing nonsense for consumption for those Labour potential supporters who haven't yet come to terms with the fact that their vote for Brexit was a massive error of judgement. As such it would literally not be worth the paper it was printed on. But Labour supporters can live in hope I suppose. Still think Labour will win with a significant majority though the toxicity of the current regime sets a remarkably low bar. I agree with you steve, I'm trying to be pragmatic though. What other option is there that doesn't help the Tories!
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 22, 2023 6:58:10 GMT
Interesting video with Ian Hislop on humourless political partisans. Happy lib dems can take a joke, had plenty of practice. youtu.be/_DraDaQ3Xz0
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 7:04:47 GMT
moby We haven't seen the Labour party manifesto yet but if it contains such gems as grow the economy by "making Brexit work" and no return to freedom of movement it really won't be based on reality. It will simply take the majority of progressive Labour supporters for granted, while throwing nonsense for consumption for those Labour potential supporters who haven't yet come to terms with the fact that their vote for Brexit was a massive error of judgement. As such it would literally not be worth the paper it was printed on. But Labour supporters can live in hope I suppose. Still think Labour will win with a significant majority though the toxicity of the current regime sets a remarkably low bar. I agree with you steve , I'm trying to be pragmatic though. What other option is there that doesn't help the Tories! Oh under conditions of cuckoo politics there are other options Moby, like joining the Tories and sabotaging from within! (See Truss for details…)
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 22, 2023 7:22:39 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Apr 22, 2023 7:27:09 GMT
More on the incredible sulk.
"In his resignation letter to Rishi Sunak, Raab said the conclusions of the report created a “dangerous precedent” by setting the threshold for bullying “so low” that it could have a “chilling” effect on ministers trying to make changes.
The MP said he felt “duty bound” to resign, having undertaken to do so if the report found against him. He claimed that all but two of the eight complaints against him had been “dismissed”, but Adam Tolley KC found evidence of poor behaviour in six of them.
Later, in an interview with the BBC, he accused “activist civil servants” of trying to block his work, either because they were “over unionised” or because they did not agree with his policies.
However, Lord Kerslake, the former head of the civil service, has described those claims as “absurd” – adding that the resignation letter was “pretty graceless” and “in some instances malevolent”.
He told Radio 4’s PM programme:
I think it’s completely inaccurate, and I think it’s just one more line of attack to avoid taking responsibility for his actions.
He seems to lash out at everybody but doesn’t accept personal responsibility for any of his own behaviour, and I think the issue here he’s trying to turn it into - some kind of constitutional question of good government - simply doesn’t stand up. "
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 22, 2023 7:42:50 GMT
I 'enjoy' the way that every Tory ministerial resignation letter seems to follow some graceless variation on the theme of "I'm resigning but it weren't my fault, guv!", albeit Raab's taken it one step further with his "activist civil servants" culture war bullshit. Sunak's response to his resignation was pathetic too. Not exactly news but he really does seem like such a thoroughly unpleasant individual. Given the likelihood of him losing his Esher & Walton seat I sincerely hope that's it for him as a frontline politician. From what I've read (both the report and his article in the Telegraph), I certainly wouldn't enjoy working for him. I have had unpleasant bosses in my time who took a dislike to me for some reason (probably irreverent humour and piss-taking 🤣), but in my day (pre-NHS) I never worked anywhere with a HR department. You either fought back or left for another job. On one occasion I was made redundant. Raab's behaviour seems to have been no worse than your average unpleasant boss. In private industry he'd stay and you'd go if you complained. Obviously depends on the circumstances but an "abrasive"* boss can set a strong example for 'getting stuff done', especially where there is a 'culture' of 'low productivity'. Instead of fighting back or leaving the job** the employees can improve their productivity by taking some criticism and learning from it - that would probably improve the boss-employee relationship. After some early 'tension' as the "new boss - existing employees" get to know each other it would create a much happier and more productive work environment. IE Set high expectations with a process to ensure that is delivered upon or dealt with. I'd bring in performance related pay where possible as well (and it would very likely mean a lower total wage bill once the dead wood was removed - with higher pay for the people who work hard and get stuff done). That is IMO (and experience) how you improve productivity. "Unpleasant boss" for some people seems to be having a boss who expects someone to do their job. Hence, what I hope happens next, is much clearer performance criteria (and in some cases perhaps some 'out-sourcing' in departments that have a shockingly low level of productivity - such as the Home Office) * Which was the 'crime' committed by Raab. "Abusive" having a very different meaning. Had Raab been found to have been "abusive" then Rishi's judgement would have been called into question but Raab was foolish enough to go "all in" with a promise to quit and so had to keep his word. ** Sometimes someone leaving is the best for the 'company' (in this case 'country'), the boss and the employee of course. Sometimes it is the boss who needs to go, although within cabinet there needs to be less 'musical chairs' IMO (which could again be achieved by some outsourcing)
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 7:45:20 GMT
You are misunderstanding me. Of course I think those issues matter. I'm saying they are huge issues though which will have a multitude of approaches/policies regarding intervention. Corbyn had an approach which wasn't going to work. I still campaigned for him though thinking it was better than anything else on offer. Well, Corbyn’s approach is one thing. Dismissing the policies as too radical is something else. And the lack of interest in the policies and the willingness to just accept things like house prices by some activists is something else again. (But it’s possible that like many right wingers it seems, that one might lead a double life whereby when campaigning are wildly enthusiastic about the left wing stuff and discuss it avidly in detail, but online are more right wing, show little interest in the policies and dismiss it all as too radical). Ok you think I'm a hypocrite. Fair enough. I think you reframe what I say to fit your own argument and can't tell the difference between a good policy in theory and the application of it in practice. Try knocking on a few doors, you may quickly find out.
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 7:51:17 GMT
From what I've read (both the report and his article in the Telegraph), I certainly wouldn't enjoy working for him. I have had unpleasant bosses in my time who took a dislike to me for some reason (probably irreverent humour and piss-taking 🤣), but in my day (pre-NHS) I never worked anywhere with a HR department. You either fought back or left for another job. On one occasion I was made redundant. Raab's behaviour seems to have been no worse than your average unpleasant boss. In private industry he'd stay and you'd go if you complained. Obviously depends on the circumstances but an "abrasive"* boss can set a strong example for 'getting stuff done', especially where there is a 'culture' of 'low productivity'. Instead of fighting back or leaving the job** the employees can improve their productivity by taking some criticism and learning from it - that would probably improve the boss-employee relationship. After some early 'tension' as the "new boss - existing employees" get to know each other it would create a much happier and more productive work environment. IE Set high expectations with a process to ensure that is delivered upon or dealt with. I'd bring in performance related pay where possible as well (and it would very likely mean a lower total wage bill once the dead wood was removed - with higher pay for the people who work hard and get stuff done). That is IMO (and experience) how you improve productivity. "Unpleasant boss" for some people seems to be having a boss who expects someone to do their job. Hence, what I hope happens next, is much clearer performance criteria (and in some cases perhaps some 'out-sourcing' in departments that have a shockingly low level of productivity - such as the Home Office) * Which was the 'crime' committed by Raab. "Abusive" having a very different meaning. Had Raab been found to have been "abusive" then Rishi's judgement would have been called into question but Raab was foolish enough to go "all in" with a promise to quit and so had to keep his word. ** Sometimes someone leaving is the best for the 'company' (in this case 'country'), the boss and the employee of course. Sometimes it is the boss who needs to go, although within cabinet there needs to be less 'musical chairs' IMO (which could again be achieved by some outsourcing) Total crap. The best bosses are ones you want to work for, who inspire you and set a good example and boost morale. The way of the whip never works, except in slavery.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 7:53:09 GMT
Well, Corbyn’s approach is one thing. Dismissing the policies as too radical is something else. And the lack of interest in the policies and the willingness to just accept things like house prices by some activists is something else again. (But it’s possible that like many right wingers it seems, that one might lead a double life whereby when campaigning are wildly enthusiastic about the left wing stuff and discuss it avidly in detail, but online are more right wing, show little interest in the policies and dismiss it all as too radical). Ok you think I'm a hypocrite. Fair enough. I think you reframe what I say to fit your own argument and can't tell the difference between a good policy in theory and the application of it in practice. Try knocking on a few doors, you may quickly find out. No, you appear to be escalating by misrepresenting me. I accept one can discuss the application of a policy in practice. My point is that doesn’t tend to happen very much. There is very little discussion of left-wing policies among the right, other than to dismiss them briefly on spurious grounds.
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 7:53:44 GMT
I agree with you steve , I'm trying to be pragmatic though. What other option is there that doesn't help the Tories! Oh under conditions of cuckoo politics there are other options Moby, like joining the Tories and sabotaging from within! (See Truss for details…) Yep Corbyn was a bit of a cuckoo in Labour but we put up with him for years and years.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 7:56:08 GMT
Oh under conditions of cuckoo politics there are other options Moby, like joining the Tories and sabotaging from within! (See Truss for details…) Yep Corbyn was a bit of a cuckoo in Labour but we put up with him for years and years. Haha, yes I recall you may have made a similar point before, something about it felt like the left being interlopers? Seemed quite ironic at the time.
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 7:57:24 GMT
Ok you think I'm a hypocrite. Fair enough. I think you reframe what I say to fit your own argument and can't tell the difference between a good policy in theory and the application of it in practice. Try knocking on a few doors, you may quickly find out. My point is that doesn’t tend to happen very much. There is very little discussion of left-wing policies among the right, other than to dismiss them briefly on spurious grounds. No. We spent bloody hours on this stuff in my CLP. Can't speak for yours of course.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 7:58:59 GMT
My point is that doesn’t tend to happen very much. There is very little discussion of left-wing policies among the right, other than to dismiss them briefly on spurious grounds. No. We spent bloody hours on this stuff in my CLP. Can't speak for yours of course. Yes, I have already accepted you might do it elsewhere. It seems quite common among those who are more right-wing online.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2023 8:04:15 GMT
I 'enjoy' the way that every Tory ministerial resignation letter seems to follow some graceless variation on the theme of "I'm resigning but it weren't my fault, guv!", albeit Raab's taken it one step further with his "activist civil servants" culture war bullshit. Sunak's response to his resignation was pathetic too. Not exactly news but he really does seem like such a thoroughly unpleasant individual. Given the likelihood of him losing his Esher & Walton seat I sincerely hope that's it for him as a frontline politician. From what I've read (both the report and his article in the Telegraph), I certainly wouldn't enjoy working for him. I have had unpleasant bosses in my time who took a dislike to me for some reason (probably irreverent humour and piss-taking 🤣), but in my day (pre-NHS) I never worked anywhere with a HR department. You either fought back or left for another job. On one occasion I was made redundant. Raab's behaviour seems to have been no worse than your average unpleasant boss. In private industry he'd stay and you'd go if you complained. I read the KC's report and I agree with Mathew Parris about what Tolley actually said :- www.thetimes.co.uk/article/im-no-fan-but-raab-has-been-hard-done-by-2qmbznd03
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Apr 22, 2023 8:12:10 GMT
Obviously depends on the circumstances but an "abrasive"* boss can set a strong example for 'getting stuff done', especially where there is a 'culture' of 'low productivity'. Instead of fighting back or leaving the job** the employees can improve their productivity by taking some criticism and learning from it - that would probably improve the boss-employee relationship. After some early 'tension' as the "new boss - existing employees" get to know each other it would create a much happier and more productive work environment. IE Set high expectations with a process to ensure that is delivered upon or dealt with. I'd bring in performance related pay where possible as well (and it would very likely mean a lower total wage bill once the dead wood was removed - with higher pay for the people who work hard and get stuff done). That is IMO (and experience) how you improve productivity. "Unpleasant boss" for some people seems to be having a boss who expects someone to do their job. Hence, what I hope happens next, is much clearer performance criteria (and in some cases perhaps some 'out-sourcing' in departments that have a shockingly low level of productivity - such as the Home Office) * Which was the 'crime' committed by Raab. "Abusive" having a very different meaning. Had Raab been found to have been "abusive" then Rishi's judgement would have been called into question but Raab was foolish enough to go "all in" with a promise to quit and so had to keep his word. ** Sometimes someone leaving is the best for the 'company' (in this case 'country'), the boss and the employee of course. Sometimes it is the boss who needs to go, although within cabinet there needs to be less 'musical chairs' IMO (which could again be achieved by some outsourcing) Total crap. The best bosses are ones you want to work for, who inspire you and set a good example and boost morale. The way of the whip never works, except in slavery. As someone whose work involves mentoring and evaluating development and whose wife is a business psychologist working with senior teams in large orgs what Trev has been writing is utter, ludicrous nonsense. A needlessly abrasive boss is simply failing at their job and is not capable of managing people. Trev wouldn't last 5 mins in the global software industry it seems! So many managers still do need to be reminded that one of their key tasks is employee wellbeing and development and increasingly they are being properly held to account on this, at least in our industry. That's one thing. Any actual bullying or behaviour anything like it would rightly have HR on them in no time and staff are encouraged to report anything that looks like it. It's well understood here at least that more often than not people leave managers rather than jobs.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2023 8:14:48 GMT
Yes I think he is too. But UKPR doesn't have a great record in its choice of political idols, whose feet of clay all too predictably cause the hero/heroine to fall into the dust of history:- Johnson. Corbyn. Sturgeon. Sunak & Starmer should be grateful that neither have attracted hero status-even from their own side
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Post by moby on Apr 22, 2023 8:15:28 GMT
No. We spent bloody hours on this stuff in my CLP. Can't speak for yours of course. Yes, I have already accepted you might do it elsewhere. It seems quite common among those who are more right-wing online. Actually many of us discuss lots of stuff online is while doing very little about the same stuff in the real world. That's where you'll find many of the Corbynites now though, digging away at Starmer😗
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 22, 2023 8:26:17 GMT
Yes, I have already accepted you might do it elsewhere. It seems quite common among those who are more right-wing online. Actually many of us discuss lots of stuff online is while doing very little about the same stuff in the real world. That's where you'll find many of the Corbynites now though, digging away at Starmer😗 Yes, that happens. But it isn’t always clear what’s best to do, in fact quite often it isn’t, which is where online discussion can help. Esp. if not wanting to just follow some programmed line while only exploring things with those liable to hold similar views . I’ve learned loads on here and continue to do so. Checking out the Rawls thing has been interesting. I don’t tend to dig away at Starmer myself, and there’s not a lot to dig at, as yet anyway. The party dynamics and approaches of activists interest me more because you can learn more about that in places like this. I’m also interested in what you can do politically outside of parties, because as you may have noticed, am not very tribal, and there are plenty examples of people campaigning in parties avidly for something that wound up rather different to what they thought they were campaigning for. (The thought of knocking on doors horrifies me - tried something like that once and felt like being a double-glazing salesperson).
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2023 8:31:12 GMT
Obviously depends on the circumstances but an "abrasive"* boss can set a strong example for 'getting stuff done', especially where there is a 'culture' of 'low productivity'. Instead of fighting back or leaving the job** the employees can improve their productivity by taking some criticism and learning from it - that would probably improve the boss-employee relationship. After some early 'tension' as the "new boss - existing employees" get to know each other it would create a much happier and more productive work environment. IE Set high expectations with a process to ensure that is delivered upon or dealt with. I'd bring in performance related pay where possible as well (and it would very likely mean a lower total wage bill once the dead wood was removed - with higher pay for the people who work hard and get stuff done). That is IMO (and experience) how you improve productivity. "Unpleasant boss" for some people seems to be having a boss who expects someone to do their job. Hence, what I hope happens next, is much clearer performance criteria (and in some cases perhaps some 'out-sourcing' in departments that have a shockingly low level of productivity - such as the Home Office) * Which was the 'crime' committed by Raab. "Abusive" having a very different meaning. Had Raab been found to have been "abusive" then Rishi's judgement would have been called into question but Raab was foolish enough to go "all in" with a promise to quit and so had to keep his word. ** Sometimes someone leaving is the best for the 'company' (in this case 'country'), the boss and the employee of course. Sometimes it is the boss who needs to go, although within cabinet there needs to be less 'musical chairs' IMO (which could again be achieved by some outsourcing) I think its very difficult to draw comparisons with the Private Sector on this. Minister's don't hire civil servants. Am I correct in assuming they don't actually have powers of discipline over them for job related issues ? And then there is the elephant in the room-political policy and resistance to it-or at least willingness to engage with it effectively. This is a very different environment in which an ostensible Manager is required to operate. I think there is a whole area of HR here , in these Government Departments which has no Private Sector parallel. I always thought the US system of politically appointed administration was very wasteful of time and expense on the changeover. But it would be interesting to see data on the comparative policy delivery record of the two systems.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 22, 2023 8:44:17 GMT
Yes I think he is too. But UKPR doesn't have a great record in its choice of political idols, whose feet of clay all too predictably cause the hero/heroine to fall into the dust of history:- Johnson. Corbyn. Sturgeon. Sunak & Starmer should be grateful that neither have attracted hero status-even from their own side 'Hero' possibly not the word I'd use but I'm a 'big fan' of Rishi (as the PM we need right now*). If CON do move into opposition after GE'24 then I don't think he'd make a very good LOTO. I've already stated Badenoch would be better suited as LOTO. She's a bit too RoC on the Economic Axis for my taste but I think that will reduce the risk of Starmer drifting back Left (not that that looks very likely but as a pledge breaker he might U-turn once again). She's probably even further RoC than Rishi on the Social Axis as well and again I think that will keep Starmer on the RoC side (eg continuing with the Rwanda scheme which I expect will be up and running by GE'24, although possibly with some ECtHR processes still ongoing). As a citizen, rather than an employee, I'm not that bothered who the "boss" is but clearly some politicians are better suited to specific roles than others (eg Rishi is needed now to 'get stuff done', but a 'Tory Plan B' manager who is kept on the 'Right' path by someone like Badenoch... that would be OK for 2025-29... possibly some Tory things than only a LAB PM can get done similar to the Corbyn hike in Corporation Tax that only a CON PM could get away with doing) * I don't have a time machine but it would have been great if he could have started earlier.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2023 8:51:57 GMT
* I don't have a time machine but it would have been great if he could have started earlier. Yes
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Apr 22, 2023 8:56:18 GMT
They've missed a trick here should have included buy a whippet and a flat cap 😀
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Post by neilj on Apr 22, 2023 9:04:45 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 22, 2023 9:09:02 GMT
Obviously depends on the circumstances but an "abrasive"* boss can set a strong example for 'getting stuff done', especially where there is a 'culture' of 'low productivity'. Instead of fighting back or leaving the job** the employees can improve their productivity by taking some criticism and learning from it - that would probably improve the boss-employee relationship. After some early 'tension' as the "new boss - existing employees" get to know each other it would create a much happier and more productive work environment. IE Set high expectations with a process to ensure that is delivered upon or dealt with. I'd bring in performance related pay where possible as well (and it would very likely mean a lower total wage bill once the dead wood was removed - with higher pay for the people who work hard and get stuff done). That is IMO (and experience) how you improve productivity. "Unpleasant boss" for some people seems to be having a boss who expects someone to do their job. Hence, what I hope happens next, is much clearer performance criteria (and in some cases perhaps some 'out-sourcing' in departments that have a shockingly low level of productivity - such as the Home Office) * Which was the 'crime' committed by Raab. "Abusive" having a very different meaning. Had Raab been found to have been "abusive" then Rishi's judgement would have been called into question but Raab was foolish enough to go "all in" with a promise to quit and so had to keep his word. ** Sometimes someone leaving is the best for the 'company' (in this case 'country'), the boss and the employee of course. Sometimes it is the boss who needs to go, although within cabinet there needs to be less 'musical chairs' IMO (which could again be achieved by some outsourcing) I think its very difficult to draw comparisons with the Private Sector on this. Minister's don't hire civil servants. Am I correct in assuming they don't actually have powers of discipline over them for job related issues ? And then there is the elephant in the room-political policy and resistance to it-or at least willingness to engage with it effectively. This is a very different environment in which an ostensible Manager is required to operate. I think there is a whole area of HR here , in these Government Departments which has no Private Sector parallel. I always thought the US system of politically appointed administration was very wasteful of time and expense on the changeover. But it would be interesting to see data on the comparative policy delivery record of the two systems. How it "is" and how it "could be" are too different things but you make valid points about the current state of affairs which IMO is a large part of the 'low productivity' issue. At the "boss" (minister) level then the 'musical chairs' issue means the protected employees can sit around and do nothing until the music stops and they get a new boss. It would be interesting to see policy delivery record of different systems. However, they'd need to be some 'context' and objective criteria might be difficult to establish. EG Germany has done well by effectively having a similar govt since WW2. In the US the problem (IMO) is that each new administration often seeks to just reverse the policies of the last one and/or with three levels of power they never agree to get anything done (which is not necessarily always a bad thing!) UK somewhere in between? I'm not familiar with how every country does stuff but a more 'outsourced' approach avoids the little protected fiefdom issues that exist in UK govt departments. I fully accept that whoever is "boss" in the Home Office would find it difficult to get anything done - as those civil servants just wait for the music to start back up and see who lands on their chair next. For NHS then, a bit radical (and hence only a LAB govt could probably pull it off) but HMG (for England) sets the targets, set the budget (% of GDP or inflation linked) and delivery shifts outside of politicians control. That stops allowing 'the precious' NHS to be made a political football and 'money pit'. CON can't reform the NHS. LAB created it, ageing population broke it, so it LAB will need to kill it (in its current form) and maybe Streeting is the man to do that?
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Apr 22, 2023 9:18:59 GMT
Another way of looking at these polls is to compare to the average from the first 3 months of 2023, when the Lab lead was around 20 points. the Tory recovery is a net 4 points - or a 2% swing-back. YG: LAB 43% (-1), CON 28% (+2). LAB lead 15% - compares to average of 22% in 14 Jan-Mar YG polls : so -7% Omnisis: LAB 47% (-1), CON 27% (+2). LAB lead 20% - compares to average 22% in 13 Jan-Mar Omnisis polls: so -2% Techne: LAB 44% (-1), CON 31% (+1). LAB lead 13% - compares to average 18% in 13 Jan-Mar Techne polls : so - 5% Savanta: LAB 45% (uc), CON 31% (+2). LAB lead 14% - compares to average 16% in 10 Jan-Mar Savanta polls : so -2% I know this is comparing apples and oranges (a 3 month average compared to single latest polls, even if those polls all point to the same direction of travel) but that is quite a drop in 3 weeks outside a General Election campaign. In a period where there might have been news for people like us, there's not actually much news that you'd expect the general public to react to as compared to the Truss budget, Covid restrictions brought in/removed, A&E/Paramedic chaos (it's still happening to some degree but not in the news) so even the lower 2 points in three weeks is unusual let alone the average on these of 4%. Mostly polls move slowly as individual voters will change their minds one at a time over time. My theory would be that there is a floor for the Tories in any General election of about 30% (and a similar one for Labour) and nothing in the news for concerned Tory voters to get upset about so maybe a period of relative calm takes them back to this floor. Maybe those always Tory voters were delighted at the 10% state pension rise? But it doesn't entirely explain it as the Lab drop is higher than the Tory rise wherever the churn has gone. Labour at 50% was always unrealistic, other than an outside chance the the voters had completely given up on the Tories, so they are only in more realistic territory now but if the trend continues and we get to, say, 42-32 by the end of the Summer then it gets interesting with a year to go. But maybe this is just swings and roundabouts and a bad winter NHS crisis again will reverse all the Tory gains and they are still chasing a big deficit with considerably less than a year to go. On the other side of the coin if inflation does drop then the comfortably off worried Tory (even though they would be comfortably off whatever the inflation figure) may feel less worried about the state of the nation and maybe the upcoming GE will focus rabid right wing Tories on the need to keep their mouths shut and not cause trouble for Sunak.
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