oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Apr 20, 2023 23:49:48 GMT
Scottish YouGov poll: So far not as big a hit to SNP as I expected from recent events and no impact at all on indycsupport.
However, there has been a change in the % of 2019 voters who are now DKs compared with YG's February poll.
SCon 18% (+6) : SLab 8% (-8) : SLD 15% (-11) : SNP 16% (+5) |
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Post by mercian on Apr 21, 2023 0:39:40 GMT
In an almost certainly vain effort to lighten the mood on UKPR2 after a pretty turgid week's postings, I offer a prescient little piece from 1952 contributed by a Mr N Coward of Teddington. youtu.be/tSA5C8mQcLQBrilliant! Times don't change much. There's always doom-mongers about. |
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Post by mercian on Apr 21, 2023 0:46:42 GMT
Of course in about thirty years when many of the the boomers have died off, because we are not having enough kids to replace people the population will start to shrink, and current 30 year olds will not have enough workers in the country to pay for their pensions when they get to 65+. No worries, there won't be many jobs anyway because AI will be doing the work of office drones. I suppose they could all retrain as social workers or something. Mind you AI could probably do a better job than most social workers once it's built into mobile robots. 2 years' time? |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 1:25:13 GMT
The SNP don't run candidates in England. There are - at the most - 3 or 4 seats where the Greens are competitive (and they are already non-Tory). The Lib Dems are competitive in a much larger number, but still less than 100. In most of England the choice is Tory or Labour; under FPTP it is as simple as that. I am a strong supporter of PR. If it were to ever be introduced I would certainly look with great interest at what options emerged afterward.
Your moral high ground appears to be more of a temporary tussock in a marsh.Are you proposing the SNP runs candidates in England then? Indeed what exactly is your point? The choices in England are as I have said. As you are so fond of pointing out, how England votes usually determines the UK result. I appreciate that Scottish nationalists think a UK Conservative government is better for the them tactically, hence them enabling one in 1979 and 2019, but as the Tories have no intention of ever giving another independence referrendum you guys will have to live under it too. Hope you enjoy the result. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 1:28:13 GMT
Shame about the launch today, but at least it cleared the pad! On the contrary I think it was a great success. It got to 39km altitude, and it looked like the booster was trying to turn round to come back, but that the Starship had failed to separate. Anyway they know it flies, and now have data on how 33 engines behave in flight, and some inkling into what causes some engines to stop. And the FAA have a baseline to help issue further licences as needed.
Plus Stage Zero, the launch site, is still there. I think Elon will sleep well tonight!
Yes, that’s why I mentioned it clearing the pad: on the SpaceX feed they were rather keen to do that and protect the launch facilities! And indeed, there are gains beyond that as you rightly highlight. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 1:32:05 GMT
1. I don't think it is ok for Starmer to conduct a factional war (and I agree he has done). 2. I don't expect far left people to vote Labour - by all means vote TUSC or Green or abstain. I would never ask anyone to vote against their conscience and it will have minimal impact on the result anyway, given the only areas where they are substantial numbers of far left voters are big cities which vote Labour anyway BUT 3. This version of the Tory party is literally destroying the public realm of the country (see our NHS, rivers, roads, anything you care to mention really). They are corrupt, immoral and have strong leanings toward becoming an anti-democratic and authoritarian party along the lines of the US Republicans, engaging in vote and electoral system rigging and endless culture wars directed at vulnerable groups. It is an urgent moral imperative to remove them from power. SO 4. Don't be a Tory enabler. If you can't support the opposition then ignore them and use your energies attacking the government That's all I ask of the left. If you help the Tories then you are culpable in what will follow. Remember the thousands of innocent people killed by Tory austerity. This is fair. I'm not entirely sure what constitutes being a Tory enabler though. There's surely scope for expressing dissatisfaction with Labour without being regarded as an enabler for the opposition. For instance, I don't really 'do' social media myself, but I think a lot of the most prominent left-wing voices are very vehemently anti-Tory but they couple that with criticism of the Labour leadership. That seems a reasonable stance to me. Re "Tory enabler", this discussion got started because of a link to a far left twitter feed rejoicing in how their attack lines had been taken up by the Tories and were being used to attack Labour. They were delighted by this - as was Trevor. That's what I was alluding to. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Apr 21, 2023 1:39:36 GMT
This is fair. I'm not entirely sure what constitutes being a Tory enabler though. There's surely scope for expressing dissatisfaction with Labour without being regarded as an enabler for the opposition. For instance, I don't really 'do' social media myself, but I think a lot of the most prominent left-wing voices are very vehemently anti-Tory but they couple that with criticism of the Labour leadership. That seems a reasonable stance to me. Re "Tory enabler", this discussion got started because of a link to a far left twitter feed rejoicing in how their attack lines had been taken up by the Tories and were being used to attack Labour. They were delighted by this - as was Trevor. That's what I was alluding to. There it is again. You’ll keep attacking the left and say they should stick to attacking the Tories, but not give the same level of stick to the right in the party when they attack the left. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 1:52:00 GMT
Well it's taken quite a bit of catching up today. Apart from the bird flu stuff it was like inadvertently walking into what I imagine a Labour party meeting is like. Or perhaps a focus group. Note, I'm using 'empathy' (i.e. imagination) here because I have never been in either. Anyway, enjoy your navel-gazing chaps and chapesses while the Tories get on with keeping power 😁 The thing that has controlled my exasperation today is that, mercifully, my local Labour party is nothing like this. That and the fact that the public couldn't care less about this sort of stuff (although they haven't warmed to Starmer much). I was out canvassing this week with someone who was certainly a Corbyn supporter but had not forgotten who the real political enemy is. In fact, with the vast majority of my Labour colleagues I have no idea what wing of the party they belong to, if any, nor does anyone care. Perhaps living in a strongly Tory area helps; when you know you are a minority you tend to stick together and avoid self-indulgent bickering. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2023 1:58:26 GMT
Re "Tory enabler", this discussion got started because of a link to a far left twitter feed rejoicing in how their attack lines had been taken up by the Tories and were being used to attack Labour. They were delighted by this - as was Trevor. That's what I was alluding to. There it is again. You’ll keep attacking the left and say they should stick to attacking the Tories, but not give the same level of stick to the right in the party when they attack the left. The right aren't currently colluding with the Tories. In 2016-17 they were and I wasn't happy about that either. My wish is for a Labour Party that is united and focused 100% on beating the Tories and getting into power regardless of who is running it at the time. As domjg points out, without power you can do nothing. The Tories understand that, which is why they keep winning. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 5:30:16 GMT
Local elections
Britain Elects
@britainelects
·
6h
Bullsmoor (Enfield) council by-election result:
LAB: 55.8% (+3.5)
CON: 36.2% (+5.8)
GRN: 4.3% (-5.4)
LDEM: 2.6% (-5.1)
TUSC: 1.1% (+1.1)
Votes cast: 1,893
Labour HOLD.
·
6h
Latchford West (Warrington) council by-election result:
LAB: 40.8% (-6.8)
CON: 30.1% (-11.5)
LDEM: 16.9% (+6.0)
IND: 12.3% (+12.3)
Votes cast: 1,623
Labour HOLD.
Not exactly the most exciting of results I would have thought the lack of growth in support for Labour would be the most significant element .
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Danny
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Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 5:42:51 GMT
The disciplinary process for government ministers is absurd, the fate of a thug rests in the hands of a corrupt inept liar. If Raab had been a civil servant he would have been out on his ear not just out of his ministerial limousine for a few weeks until he's " reflected". However, there is a contradiction here with the principles of the UK constitution. If you win a majority in the house of commons then you get absolute power. And absolute power obviously included choosing who gets to be ministers and allows them to behave as badly as they like. In particular it would be a nonsense to win in the commons but then not be permitted to become government ministers simply because you have behaved badly. At least, within the bounds of the criminal law. If voters think this is unacceptable, well they should not have voted for them at all. However since you only need about 1/4 of those eligible to vote to support you to win, then clearly there could come a situation where 3/4 oppose you but you carry on regardless. And thats pretty much what we have seen for years. Arguably a system unfit for purpose (as it is designed to be). |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 6:11:54 GMT
If anyone did ever want to check the increase in number of say nurses in NHS* then the data is available at:https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/nhs-staff-earnings-estimates/december-2022-provisional-statistics I had a look at your link, and its not clear how to find any stats on employee numbers. The link talks about average pay. The question of staff numbers in general has a big problem because there is a huge number of vacancies. So are you talking about posts in principle, or posts actually filled? More or less looked into this and I think they discovered the claimed increases in staffing were pretty much cancelled out by the empty posts. They commented however that where empty posts occur might have significant impact on ability to carry out treatments. No data available. |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 6:17:52 GMT
That is all very well , but it still amounts to exhorting people to vote for a programme well to the right of the pre-Thatcher Tory governments since World War 2. If I felt unable to vote for Macmillan , Eden, Churchill, Douglas -Home or Heath, why should I feel inclined to vote for Starmer? I did not support Labour at the four GEs 1997 - 2010 inclusive and have no interest in the similar bland Blairite version being served up. From my perspective, the two biggest faults with the con administration have been leaving the EU and imposed national lockdown. labour do not seem interested in reversing either of these (or admitting fault in supporting them). They pretty much went along with con, so there isnt actually much difference. It would perhaps be interesting, even decisisve, to see all policies side by side, but on the whole lab offer seems very similar to con. Maybe thats why they seem to be keeping as quiet as possible about policy and relying on con pushing themselves out of office by applying these same policies and annoying the voters.
Brexit is busy destroying the UK economy, but lab arent willing to stand up and halt this.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 21, 2023 6:44:47 GMT
By far the most perverse thing about this forum is that the majority of posters seem to think it's quite ok for Starmer to conduct a factional war against the left; it's ok to do the most provocative things from preventing the former leader from standing, vetting candidates to exclude left wingers and conducting a purge against left-wing members, and yet people are appalled when there's a backlash to this? You cannot systematically alienate a substantial chunk of your core support and expect them to blithely roll over and accept it "because the Tories". Besides, if Starmer's marginalising the left because he thinks it's politically advantageous, his backers can hardly complain when folk on the left bite back - if it's politically a good thing to sideline the left then their criticisms shouldn't matter and it shouldn't dent Labour's electoral prospects. Frankly, Starmer's been dealt such an easy hand compared to his predecessor. Corbyn, as well as having Brexit as an electoral issue, had to contend with MPs constantly briefing against him, them resigning en masse, a leadership challenge, being actively undermined by Labour HQ in two general election campaigns and well as an extremely hostile media. Starmer's got, what impediments, exactly? Left Twitter? If they're making any headway it's because it's exceptionally easy to portray Starmer as the dishonest chancer that he is. Bottom line is people rightly don't like or trust the Labour leader, those calling the shots in Labour HQ, and acolytes such as Reeves and Streeting. No amount of "but the Tories" protestations are going to change that but an attractive policy offering could help get people back into the Labour fold. Unfortunately they jettisoned that too and seem happy to solely court right-wing votes, so it's rather difficult to see what the point of them actually is. 1. I don't think it is ok for Starmer to conduct a factional war (and I agree he has done). 2. I don't expect far left people to vote Labour - by all means vote TUSC or Green or abstain. I would never ask anyone to vote against their conscience and it will have minimal impact on the result anyway, given the only areas where they are substantial numbers of far left voters are big cities which vote Labour anyway BUT 3. This version of the Tory party is literally destroying the public realm of the country (see our NHS, rivers, roads, anything you care to mention really). They are corrupt, immoral and have strong leanings toward becoming an anti-democratic and authoritarian party along the lines of the US Republicans, engaging in vote and electoral system rigging and endless culture wars directed at vulnerable groups. It is an urgent moral imperative to remove them from power. SO 4. Don't be a Tory enabler. If you can't support the opposition then ignore them and use your energies attacking the government That's all I ask of the left. If you help the Tories then you are culpable in what will follow. Remember the thousands of innocent people killed by Tory austerity. Some of you have a visceral hatred of the Conservatives and will vote for a donkey if that is the alternative. Some of us on the other hand vote positively for what we believe in. You clearly find this hard to understand, as your emotion doesn't work that way. But successful politics does require you to acknowledge and act on the fact that not everyone thinks like you. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 6:48:57 GMT
London Marathon is going to be bizarre. Extinction Rebellion have pledged to protect the race. Just Stop Oil say they will disrupt it. So alongside Mr Blobby and the man with a fridge on his back waddling around a marathon course, we're going to see activists trying to stick themselves to other activists in protest at them not protesting. This will be fun. And I thought they were all the same people. There are more nutters about than I thought! 😁 Another example of lefties splitting? I would have thought they'd at least be in broad agreement. Just FWIW then YG did ask about 'Just Stop Oil'. LAB* are a bit split on their opinion but the majority view is 'unfavourable' with only 16% of people taking a 'favourable' view. * Since the 'age' x-breaks correlate with partisan VI (and regions in case of London) then the LAB split is likely caused by 'age' rather than partisan view (ie a correlation rather than a causation). I don't see LAB stopping oil given we need it for 'Just Transition' and we want to improve our Energy Security (ie get our oil from our own N.Sea rather than from places like Saudi) |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
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Post by steve on Apr 21, 2023 6:49:57 GMT
1300 homeless people died in 2022 Charles Windsor even richer than the Sunaks And we get to pay £100 million so he and the rest of the Windsor clan can ponce about in golden air conditioned carriages. Looking forward to the coronation. youtu.be/ByuMz1VMUVU |
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Post by alec on Apr 21, 2023 6:50:21 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w - thanks for your support. I do find the reasoning behind the minimizing of covid quite bizarre, as well as being largely ignorant of the science. Hiding behind the fact that a top ten cause of death (which is largely preventable anyway) is no longer an issue, because it isn't the top cause of death is just daft. I still maintain a confidence that we will get this sorted and end up in a better place all round, but at times it is tough to be at all optimistic when you see the stupidity all around. The correlations are very clear though. Yes, there was a long term trend in declining health service metrics caused by government spending, but in 2020 everything went through the roof, and since then the metrics have matched the prevalence of covid. This includes excess deaths, which remain shockingly high. This morning we've had another paper that proves the presence of replicable sars-cov2 in hospital treatment room air, yet all over the country we're being told staff don't need to wear masks anymore. At this point I wanted to add a picture showing a man in a bakery loading cakes into a box while wearing a facemask. It's normal in the food prep industry, but, it seems, just too much for our health care workers. We care more about cakes than sick people, it seems.
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Danny
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Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 6:52:19 GMT
Why should the Left get behind someone well to the Right of Harold Macmillan and Ted Heath? Try googling "how many people did the benefit cuts kill". I'm staggered how many on this site don't seem to give a damn about the vulnerable people who will suffer under a Tory government. Why? Much has been said about pandemic response when both parties supported interventions heavily. Yet they mostly did no good, especially the extreme interventions suspending society. The reason they happened was because politicians considered they had to be seen to be doing something. Whereas Norway's response, organised by civil servants instead of politicians, was to minimise intrusive interventions in normal life. Even UK SAGE kept warning politicians that while it was recommending what could be done, it was not saying it SHOULD be done...because issues other than strictly medical ones were also important (plus they never really commented on how effective measures would be, only that they were possible). They clearly stated they had not taken into account issues such as the vast bill for imposing a lockdown, which money first might be utterly unaffordable but second could have been spent more effectively in other ways. While some politicians actually went on record saying money was no object, which was an utterly stupid thing to say beause it always is, and good government demands that it be taken into account. The real truth is politicians chose a course they believe maximised their standing in the eyes of the public, did not maximise health outcomes and did not maximise value for money. So why are you surprised politicians or the politically motivated dont really care about vulnerable people who are a significant but modest minority less important to achieved vote share than committed brexiteers?
Whats really more surprising is not Con pandering to the rich, but how lab has ignored its obvious available voter block of remain/rejoiners. It seems to prefer we are out. Which is unacceptable to me.
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 6:56:33 GMT
The sheep will always sing whatever song they are taught to sing. Yes, I keep banging on about how labour is failing to lead any of the sheep to the left. It refuses to campaign for many issues it supposedly supports and so leaves those sheep to wander. |
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Post by EmCat on Apr 21, 2023 6:59:23 GMT
On the subject of local elections, ... It did get me thinking a bit though - I might be pretty disaffected with national politics at the moment, but I think this is probably compounded at a local level by not having much direct engagementand not really knowing what the key issues/bones of contention might be locally. Other than getting a council tax bill through and the bins being collected I don't tend to notice much in the way of what the council are or aren't doing..... Bit of a shame really as I've always considered local democracy important. Makes me wonder how common an experience this is. I suspect that it is a common enough experience that may go some way to explaining why local election turnout has always been lower than that of general elections. The "I'd prefer to vote for competence than along party lines, but I'm not really sure what competent would look like" view |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 7:06:36 GMT
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 7:07:22 GMT
With respect that is a bit like saying Herman Goering was not quite as evil as Adolf Hitler, Heinrich Himmler or Reinhard Heydrich. Whilst true, it would not have been enough to persuade me to vote for him. Really your exasperation needs to be directed at Starmer An apt analogy, especially when recollecting that Nazis were a popular party with maybe a similar vote share to conservatives now, who however decided to use dirty tricks to maximise their vote. That is, dirtier even than con have as yet. And having once achieved power, changed the rules to retain that power forever. Again, con have as yet only made more minor attempts to suspend parliament and rule using executive authority. Interestingly though, they did that when they faced a rebellious parliament so don't actually need to currently. No evidence then that they repent their dirty tricks.
If a situation arose where they thought they could get away with voting themselves power for life, would they do it? They dont currently have control of media and enough popular enforcement agencies (hitler youth, etc) to make such a revolution stick. I dont see their rich supporters or hedge fund managers or going out on the streets personally with cricket bats to enforce a revolution, so maybe thats why they havn't tried. Not because they wouldnt, but they have the wrong sort of supporters.
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Post by barbara on Apr 21, 2023 7:09:22 GMT
In an almost certainly vain effort to lighten the mood on UKPR2 after a pretty turgid week's postings, I offer a prescient little piece from 1952 contributed by a Mr N Coward of Teddington. youtu.be/tSA5C8mQcLQAs a fan of NC since I was a little girl, this is one of my favourites, alongside "Don't Let's Be Beastly to the Germans", which was banned by the BBC in case people missed the satire and thought he was being serious. |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 7:23:03 GMT
I don't think LEs should directly link to national VI but I appreciate folks do the comparisons anyway. So for Bullsmoor (Enfield), not too far from moi, then council by-election result (difference to EC's ward prediction) LAB: 55.8% (-10.5%) CON: 36.2% (+16.9%) Green: 4.3% (+0.3%) LDEM: 2.6% (-1.7%) ... www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Enfield%20NorthObviously a much lager sample of seats coming up soon. Enfield was impacted by the ULEZ changes back in 2021 so perhaps not a good example - although the ULEZ was supposed to be popular with Londoners as a whole, then probably less popular with the newly impacted folks enfielddispatch.co.uk/londons-low-emissions-zone-arriving-in-enfield/ |
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Post by hireton on Apr 21, 2023 7:27:43 GMT
Not sure if we have had this one from TechneUK but polldrums anyway:
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 7:41:29 GMT
So far not as big a hit to SNP as I expected from recent events and no impact at all on indycsupport. Would you expect one? a scandal about how the party money has been spent, which might yet not amount to more than unwize decisions? How does that compare to the goings on of other parties, the alleged antisemitism or the bullying or diversion of public funds to private pockets? |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 7:44:37 GMT
Unlike plenty of centrists at the last two elections, I do appreciate the awfulness of the Tories and do want rid of them. I don't see any tension between that and strongly criticising the direction of the Labour Party. Those are not mutually exclusive positions. When asked, Corbyn gave the EU 7/10. How much would he have given the labour party? 6/10? Tories, 2/10? How much would he give labour now? 3/10 just above con or 1/10 just below? or still putting personal issues aside, maybe 4 or 5 out of ten because they have shown themselves a much worse party than he was elected leader? |
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Mr Poppy
Member
Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Apr 21, 2023 7:49:45 GMT
First of the weekly batch of polling and a further narrowing in LAB's lead and 'slow but steady' improvement in confidence...
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 7:49:58 GMT
I am. But I agree with you, if you have the people then you must provide the homes. Obvious answer - kick out all the hundreds of thousands who have no right to be here. Voila - no housing crisis. Sure there are maybe hundreds of thousands with no right to stay. But there are millions who do have such a claim. And tens or hundreds of millions aound the world who could win such a right if they ever were able to apply. But for the moment lets just worry about those already here lawfully and who dont have homes. We have no significant problem with illegal migrants here currently. Con want us to think we do because its a safe topic for them (or at least, safer). |
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Danny
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Posts: 10,370
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Post by Danny on Apr 21, 2023 8:02:59 GMT
I'm also staggered by how many on this site don't seem to give a damn about the vulnerable people who will suffer under covid in the years ahead. Unlike political virtue signalling, when empathy is for the fabled vulnerable, in the case of covid, it's almost as if these people find it easier to actually blame the vulnerable for being like they are. Every time you hear anyone say 'for most people covid is mild', or 'it only affects those with pre-existing conditions' etc etc, the are basically saying 'it's fine not to give a f@ck about the vulnerable'. Why do you obsess so about covid? Covid has caused harm. Covid will cause harm. There was no way to prevent the past harm and nothing we can do about future harm short of major medical breakthroughs. The big lie during the pandemic was that we could significantly mitigate harm with major interventions, and this was a politically motivated lie intended to boost party political support. Under normal circumstances politicians DO NOT CARE that people die from medical conditions which could have been treated. That should be obvious to everyone because if they did care then we would always have been spending more on health. But you also need to take a step back and understand that politicians probably do care in a general sort of way, but governing a nation requires a balanced budget with income matching expenditure and limitations therefore on the total which can be done about everything. So its a deliberate choice how to allocate resources, whether to allocate a bit more or a bit less on health, and on everything else. Also a choice how and whom to tax. And these choices are normally defined by political advantage. Thats how democracy works. Vote for the party which will benefit you most. You go on and on about covid because you are still trying to persuade people interventions were correct. They werent, they failed to make much difference, and at enormous cost. Truly, a disastrous choice. Labour as much to blame as conservative. Maybe more, because they chose to push for harder measures not milder ones. That money could have been available now to spend on vulnerable people, most of whom have far more significant things to worry about than covid. You support how it was squandered instead. |
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