26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[steamdrivenandy]

Mar 30, 2023 12:25:58 GMT hireton said:

Mar 30, 2023 8:50:15 GMT barbara said:

I wonder if they've given her such sharp penalty so that Johnson can't claim not fair when they give him 10 days.

barbara

I wondered about that too but the 3 Tory MPs and the 1 SNP MP on the Standards Committee voted against the 30 day suspension and argued for a 9 day suspension. They were outvoted because the 7 lay Committee members supported the 30 day suspension. The Privileges Committee does not have lay members.

That doesn't bode well for truth and justice if MP's are generally inclined to be lenient with fellow members. 

[neilj]

With the current Government this isnt a surprise
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/30/britons-more-confidence-in-eu-than-westminster-poll-brexit
'Britons have more confidence in EU than Westminster, poll finds
Faith in bloc higher than that in UK parliament for first time in three decades of World Values Survey'

[shevii]

Mar 30, 2023 12:25:04 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Mar 30, 2023 12:15:04 GMT graham said:

Though, of course it's never been known for a CLP to have been taken over by zealots, purist or otherwise, or to have been unduly influenced by a leading personality or folk wishing to make trouble for a part leader they disagree with.

In the final analysis it's up to all voters to decide whether they're happy to risk letting a Tory government in for a further five years by voting elsewhere or not voting at all.

Just a reminder of what Keir Starmer said

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Labour split over capital gains tax
Rachel Reeves says there are ‘no plans’ to increase the current rate, despite Angela Rayner suggesting the levy might be raised

“Angela Rayner, the party’s deputy leader, last week suggested raising taxes on savings and investments as she criticised Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, for paying a lower rate than most working people.

But Ms Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, gave the strongest indication yet that Labour would not follow through with an increase.

Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme whether a raid was being planned, she replied: “Look, we will set out all those plans, but I don’t have any plans to raise capital gains tax.

…

While Ms Reeves did not categorically rule out a capital gains tax increase, her comments risk angering prominent backbenchers who are calling for one - including John McDonnell, who was Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, and Richard Burgon.

These Labour MPs have demanded that the capital gains levy is doubled on most assets to align it with the 40 per cent income tax rate.”


Telegraph

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 30, 2023 13:03:14 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Labour split over capital gains tax
Rachel Reeves says there are ‘no plans’ to increase the current rate, despite Angela Rayner suggesting the levy might be raised
...

However, they are promising to spend the same claimed increase in revenue from their version of a windfall tax on yet another item - this time stopping an increase in Council Tax (if they were in power, which they are not). How many times can you spend the same money?!? 

"Sky News understands this is not a solid pledge for the next general election"
news.sky.com/story/labour-government-would-freeze-council-tax-says-sir-keir-starmer-12845115

Good luck to LAB canvassers* selling that on the doorstep - especially in LAB run areas (although perhaps they are taking those votes for granted?)

TBC how they are going to fund all the "promises" from 2025 onwards given the Windfall Tax is temporary and Reeves is avoiding saying where any of the money they plan to spend is going to come from. 

"CON are shit, so Vote ABCON" is fair enough but that only appeals as a "protest vote" that all ABCON parties are hoping to get. 

I thought LAB might have announced more of their "vague" devolution plans for the LEs - given that would be relevant. But nope, just a promise to spend money that they've already said would have been spent - if they were in power, which they are not.

* Even more good luck required for CON canvassers. Vote CON = refugees here. ?!? I'd expect turnout to be low, even by LE standards.  

[Deleted]

Mar 30, 2023 11:08:45 GMT John Chanin said:

Mar 29, 2023 22:58:58 GMT @isa said:

That's interesting. Forgive me, I'm not sure of your relative neck of the woods, but that would suggest there is some wider initiative at work here. I got the impression that, locally at least, it's a 60 plus thing. Whatever, it seems that it's a widespread initiative and despite everything else that's sadly going t*ts up in the NHS at present, this useful exercise is gamely plodding on.

The trouble is they can't resource it, the GPs being disastrously overloaded. 

Actually, there was no GP directly involved in the process in my case. A 10 minute appointment with a nurse, and that was that. I rang back a week later for the results. 

It seems a no-brainer as a worthwhile initiative, though.

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 30, 2023 13:00:39 GMT shevii said:

Mar 30, 2023 12:25:04 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Though, of course it's never been known for a CLP to have been taken over by zealots, purist or otherwise, or to have been unduly influenced by a leading personality or folk wishing to make trouble for a part leader they disagree with.

In the final analysis it's up to all voters to decide whether they're happy to risk letting a Tory government in for a further five years by voting elsewhere or not voting at all.

Just a reminder of what Keir Starmer said

What he said to become LAB leader was what he needed to say to become LAB leader.

"Words are wind"

Mind you, given how quickly he breaks pledges then by GE'24 he might have gone full circle - depending on how the wind is blowing? 

[barbara]

Mar 30, 2023 12:25:58 GMT hireton said:

Mar 30, 2023 8:50:15 GMT barbara said:

I wonder if they've given her such sharp penalty so that Johnson can't claim not fair when they give him 10 days.

barbara

I wondered about that too but the 3 Tory MPs and the 1 SNP MP on the Standards Committee voted against the 30 day suspension and argued for a 9 day suspension. They were outvoted because the 7 lay Committee members supported the 30 day suspension. The Privileges Committee does not have lay members.

hireton - thanks for the explanation. Well if they voted against it then there's not much likelihood they'll give Johnson more than 9 days. Unless of course they don't think that recklessly risking giving people Covid is as important as recklessly misleading the house. 

[domjg]

Mar 30, 2023 13:29:09 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mar 30, 2023 13:00:39 GMT shevii said:

Just a reminder of what Keir Starmer said

What he said to become LAB leader was what he needed to say to become LAB leader.

"Words are wind"

Mind you, given how quickly he breaks pledges then by GE'24 he might have gone full circle - depending on how the wind is blowing? 

"Words are wind" - Is that the latest bon mot in right wing circles? Would certainly explain a lot as that appears to be the maxim that this government (in all it's incarnations) lives by to it's shame. 

[pjw1961]

Mar 30, 2023 8:01:32 GMT barbara said:

Do you think Trevor's daily change of avatar is to fool people into reading his posts by chance instead of scrolling past? Doesn't work with me. You can tell his posts immediately owing to the bold and capital bits. Just like you can tell Danny's by the sheer number of paragraphs. Scroll scroll scroll.

The recent spate of change was started as an anti-Trans provocation (or perhaps it is just what passes as right wing 'humour'), with the idea that he suddenly identified as a Cabybara - is if Trans people wrestling with gender dysphoria do so lightly on a whim. I assume the original post was intended to produce a response but, sensibly, everyone just ignored it. All rather pathetic really.     

[graham]

Mar 30, 2023 13:29:09 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mar 30, 2023 13:00:39 GMT shevii said:

Just a reminder of what Keir Starmer said

What he said to become LAB leader was what he needed to say to become LAB leader.

"Words are wind"

Mind you, given how quickly he breaks pledges then by GE'24 he might have gone full circle - depending on how the wind is blowing? 

Indeed - it is the behaviour we expect of a compulsive liar.

[leftieliberal]

Mar 30, 2023 13:48:40 GMT pjw1961 said:

Mar 30, 2023 8:01:32 GMT barbara said:

Do you think Trevor's daily change of avatar is to fool people into reading his posts by chance instead of scrolling past? Doesn't work with me. You can tell his posts immediately owing to the bold and capital bits. Just like you can tell Danny's by the sheer number of paragraphs. Scroll scroll scroll.

The recent spate of change was started as an anti-Trans provocation (or perhaps it is just what passes as right wing 'humour'), with the idea that he suddenly identified as a Cabybara - is if Trans people wrestling with gender dysphoria do so lightly on a whim. I assume the original post was intended to produce a response but, sensibly, everyone just ignored it. All rather pathetic really.     

Capybaras have been recognised as an invasive species in Florida for some years now: www.orlandoweekly.com/news/florida-now-has-a-capybara-problem-2516961
Perhaps this makes Mr Poppy an invasive species on this generally LoC board.   

[peterbell]

Mar 29, 2023 22:56:42 GMT JohnC said:

Mar 29, 2023 22:20:22 GMT @isa said:

I notice it seemed to stop abruptly when the Lineker affair broke. I haven't bothered looking for it since. The Sky Press Preview is in any event usually much more revealing than the pap that passes for BBC journalism these days.

A quick google shows that the last The Papers was on 2 January, so well before the Lineker affair broke.

In my original post I wrote   "BBC paper review and Sky paper review"  However, I gave up on BBC about 6 months ago so was not aware it had been taken off air.  As someone said earlier, Sky paper review was much superior

[pete]

Thank you to those who wished me well in my Covid battle, last friday I tested positive.
2nd time for me and the first 4 days were rough, then it was fine.
Feel great now but I'm still testing positive. Anybody know if its safe to go back to work? Really want to get back to work.

[jayblanc]

Mar 29, 2023 18:09:58 GMT pjw1961 said:

Mar 29, 2023 17:44:36 GMT James E said:

Surely any village with an RAF base would be a "noisy village"? 

I can assure you it really isn't. Doesn't even have a pub. In the days when Wethersfield was US Airforce, they built a cinema, bar, etc. on the site and the servicemen rarely bothered to leave their bit of 'little America'. 

Population is c1,200, so if the Home Office ever move the proposed 1,700 single male migrants on site they will considerably outnumber the local population. It is very rural and only accessible in and out by car. Altogether a strange choice, suggesting that the government have run out of ideas that are both workable and sufficiently cruel to please their back-benchers. 

This is an interesting argument.

On the one hand you argue that a self contained US airbase did not change the nature of Wethersfield.
On the other hand you argue a self contained asylum centre will change the nature of Wethersfield.

Considering that Asylum centre will use the exact same location and infrastructure left behind by the US airbase, what exactly is the difference between the two?

[jayblanc]

Mar 30, 2023 15:01:10 GMT pete said:

Thank you to those who wished me well in my Covid battle, last friday I tested positive.
2nd time for me and the first 4 days were rough, then it was fine.
Feel great now but I'm still testing positive. Anybody know if its safe to go back to work? Really want to get back to work.

Stay home. Don't give it to anyone else.

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 30, 2023 14:25:39 GMT leftieliberal said:

Capybaras have been recognised as an invasive species in Florida for some years now: www.orlandoweekly.com/news/florida-now-has-a-capybara-problem-2516961
Perhaps this makes Mr Poppy an invasive species on this generally LoC board.   

Capybaras have been fleeing persecution in S.America but the Florida facists want to deport my comrades as they consider it to be an "invasion" 

That's how it started in 1930s Europe!

I've written to Gary Lineker to see if he can help rehome some of my comrades 🥺

PS A simple way for people to keep out what they might consider an "invasive" species is to put up a fence (or on UKPR2 use the 'block notifications' feature). I use 'block notifications' to keep the trolls out but the occasional troll gets a reply from someone who I still occasionally read - especially when they unnecessarily 'tag' me into their concert of trolling 😴 😴

[steve]

Keen local swimmers line up to use multimillionaire prime minister Sunaks new swimming pool complex.

Wouldn't want that upgrade required to the local energy grid to heat it to go to waste.

They could help if Sushi ventured out of the shallow end and found himself totally out of his depth.


Again

[steve]

pete
I think the advice is five days.
There is no statutory requirement now preventing your return at any point.
Mind you if you ask Alec it's probably until the end of time.

[hireton]

Savanta MRP prediction from December for Rutherglen together with lots of caveats:

[alec]

pete - you may still test positive for quite a while after no longer being highly infectious, but it is something of a gamble. Think of your work colleagues and whichever vulnerable person might be at the end of a chain of infection, however distant. If you are testing +vs using LFT tests in particular, be cautious. PCR tests are very sensitive so more likely you may not be a major risk. You really should be wearing a mask whenever you are indoors with others though, until at least two -ve tests over 48hrs.

To be sure, the only safe way to do this is to cut off the head or destroy the brain.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Mar 30, 2023 13:25:22 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mar 30, 2023 13:03:14 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Labour split over capital gains tax
Rachel Reeves says there are ‘no plans’ to increase the current rate, despite Angela Rayner suggesting the levy might be raised
...

However, they are promising to spend the same claimed increase in revenue from their version of a windfall tax on yet another item - this time stopping an increase in Council Tax (if they were in power, which they are not). How many times can you spend the same money?!? 

Well money can circulate so if you do it in the right way then yeah, the money can effectively be spent more than once. But some ways work better than others. The priority is to spend on things that will save money and increase income though. House building is a handy one because it saves money on housing benefit, boosts the economy and is counter-inflationary. But it helps the working class, so…

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Mar 30, 2023 15:01:10 GMT pete said:

Thank you to those who wished me well in my Covid battle, last friday I tested positive.
2nd time for me and the first 4 days were rough, then it was fine.
Feel great now but I'm still testing positive. Anybody know if it’s h safe to go back to work? Really want to get back to work.

oh I missed that Pete. Glad you’re recovering ok though 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Mar 30, 2023 13:50:54 GMT graham said:

Mar 30, 2023 13:29:09 GMT Mr Poppy said:

What he said to become LAB leader was what he needed to say to become LAB leader.

"Words are wind"

Mind you, given how quickly he breaks pledges then by GE'24 he might have gone full circle - depending on how the wind is blowing? 

Indeed - it is the behaviour we expect of a compulsive liar.

Thing is they normally wait until they are in power to do all the betrayals. Starmer really hit the ground running ahead of time. Bodes well for in government…

[jib]

Mar 30, 2023 12:21:34 GMT neilj said:

Prediction for the likely upcoming by-election

SNP are going to be throwing everything at that one to try and nip any sign of Labour momentum in the bud.

Attachment Deleted
 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Mar 30, 2023 14:25:39 GMT leftieliberal said:

Mar 30, 2023 13:48:40 GMT pjw1961 said:

The recent spate of change was started as an anti-Trans provocation (or perhaps it is just what passes as right wing 'humour'), with the idea that he suddenly identified as a Cabybara - is if Trans people wrestling with gender dysphoria do so lightly on a whim. I assume the original post was intended to produce a response but, sensibly, everyone just ignored it. All rather pathetic really.     

Capybaras have been recognised as an invasive species in Florida for some years now: www.orlandoweekly.com/news/florida-now-has-a-capybara-problem-2516961
Perhaps this makes Mr Poppy an invasive species on this generally LoC board.   

ROC!!!

[James E]

Mar 30, 2023 15:26:01 GMT hireton said:

Savanta MRP prediction from December for Rutherglen together with lots of caveats:

I have had a go at modelling Rutherglen and Hamilton West based on averaged cross-breaks from the two most recent YouGovs. I have ignored the very small movements to and from the SNP with the Cons and LDs.

SNP lose 14% to Lab and 7% to SGP, but gain 11% of 2019Lab.
Lab lose 11% to SNP,  gain 14% of SNP2019.
Lab gain 17% of Con2019.
Lab gain 40% of LD2019.
Lab lose combined 5% of their 2019 vote to LD or Con.

This works out as:
Lab 40.0% (+5.5)
SNP 38.8% (-5.2)

However, this assumes that SGP stand. The 3% which YG's figures suggest they would take from the SNP could be crucial. 


As for Savanta's MRP in December: The SNP's lead has fallen from around 13 points then to 9 now. If you adjust for that, it too would suggest a knife-edge result. 

[pjw1961]

Mar 30, 2023 15:02:17 GMT jayblanc said:

Mar 29, 2023 18:09:58 GMT pjw1961 said:

I can assure you it really isn't. Doesn't even have a pub. In the days when Wethersfield was US Airforce, they built a cinema, bar, etc. on the site and the servicemen rarely bothered to leave their bit of 'little America'. 

Population is c1,200, so if the Home Office ever move the proposed 1,700 single male migrants on site they will considerably outnumber the local population. It is very rural and only accessible in and out by car. Altogether a strange choice, suggesting that the government have run out of ideas that are both workable and sufficiently cruel to please their back-benchers. 

This is an interesting argument.

On the one hand you argue that a self contained US airbase did not change the nature of Wethersfield.
On the other hand you argue a self contained asylum centre will change the nature of Wethersfield.

Considering that Asylum centre will use the exact same location and infrastructure left behind by the US airbase, what exactly is the difference between the two?

It wasn't one argument but two points - the first paragraph was responding to the idea that the village wasn't 'quiet' because service personnel had been based there in the past. I was making the point there is nothing to do in Wethersfield.  

The second was a comment on the folly of the government's policy. The stated intention is to lock 1,700 adult males (the government have said no women or children will be sent there) in a remote, rural location where there is nothing for them to do and nowhere for them to go even if they were allowed out. That seems to combine cruel and stupid in equal measure. As to the difference, the American service personnel chose not to go out; there was nothing to stop them doing so subject to whatever rules US airmen operate under. In contrast it seems the intention is to imprison the migrants behind fences as if they were criminals, although they will not have been tried or convicted of any crime. This is a shocking policy, simultaneously morally wrong and completely impractical. 

(I have written previously about what I would do instead, so I won't repeat myself. It certainly wouldn't include locking people up on former air bases). 

 

[alec]

Reptiles shed their skins on a regular basis.

No idea quite why that thought popped into my head.

[pjw1961]

Mar 30, 2023 15:51:04 GMT James E said:

Mar 30, 2023 15:26:01 GMT hireton said:

Savanta MRP prediction from December for Rutherglen together with lots of caveats:

I have had a go at modelling Rutherglen and Hamilton West based on averaged cross-breaks from the two most recent YouGovs. I have ignored the very small movements to and from the SNP with the Cons and LDs.

SNP lose 14% to Lab and 7% to SGP, but gain 11% of 2019Lab.
Lab lose 11% to SNP, bit gain 14% of SNP2019.
Lab gain 17% of Con2019.
Lab gain 40% of LD2019.
Lab lose combined 5% of their 2019 vote to LD or Con.

This works out as:
Lab 40.0% (+5.5)
SNP 38.8% (-5.2)

However, this assumes that SGP stand. The 3% which YG's figures suggest they would take from the SNP could be crucial. 

What a polling based approach can't allow for is tactical voting in a one-off by-election context. For example, it is easy to imagine the Conservative vote collapsing completely in favour of Labour if Tory voters see this a free opportunity to give the SNP a kicking, knowing there is no effect on the Westminster position.

I am sure both the SNP and Labour would throw everything they have at this and I am happy to confess I have no idea what the outcome would be.