26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[birdseye]

Mar 28, 2023 15:15:19 GMT oldnat said:

[steve]

Environment secretary Thérèse Coffey attacks Farmers' Weekly, suggesting it's biased.


Ah yes farmers weekly the go to publication for the Tofu eating wokerati!

Therese Coffey. Proving that somewhere in the UK, a street corner is missing the person that stands and shouts at busses.

[steve]

"To be expected.Since the outcome of the next GE is almost sure, those Tory MPs in marginal seats will be starting to look for replacement jobs. "


Why they've already got them!

[Mark]

Mar 28, 2023 16:07:56 GMT domjg said:

Mar 28, 2023 15:07:27 GMT oldnat said:

That surprises me. These are the menus my grandkids (and every other Glasgow pupil) are offered -
"Select a main meal, drink and dessert. Choose as much fruit and veg, soup and bread as you like.

All meals include choice of plain semi-skimmed milk and refresh water

All options include - yoghurt and fresh fruit for dessert

All dishes are served with a choice of seasonal vegetables or side salad"

www.glasgow.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=56675&p=0

Mmn. Just asked my daughter what pudding was today. Ginger cake and custard.. 

Ugh. Custard I've never got why anyone goes near it. To me, it's like [decription redacted so as not to put anyone off who actually eats it].

That said, as much as I love my savouries, I've never had much of a sweet tooth. A few biscuits with my coffee and ice cream when it's hot...and that's about it.

As for that school menu, I would really have struggled with that. Seriously, a tuna sandwich? Beans on toast? Those aren't meals.

Yes, some are...spaghetti bolognaise with garlic bread.....that's a meal, but, so many of the options aren't. Not even close.

[hireton]

Latest R&W Blue Wall Westminster VI poll:

[Rafwan]

Mar 28, 2023 16:05:18 GMT steve said:

Rafwan

"Not really sure what doctrinal purity is. I know some people would say it is what underpins many of your posts."

I like to think a reasonable grasp of reality underpins my posts.

Save when you bang on about Corbyn.

[pjw1961]

Mar 28, 2023 17:01:03 GMT hireton said:

Latest R&W Blue Wall Westminster VI poll:

If my memory serves accurately, the previous 'Blue Wall' poll saw a big movement from Lab toward Con & Lib Dem, so perhaps another case where the prior poll was a bit rogue and this is the correction. 

[steve]

Rafwan

Do tell do you feel he's an electoral asset then?

[James E]

Blue Wall poll is back to normal - the last one was somewhat of an outlier in the Tories' direction. In the 6 'Blue Wall' polls they've done so far in 2023, the average is Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 20%, Grn 4%, Ref 4%.

Comparing the figures to GE2019, this latest one is:
Lab 39% (+18)
Con 31% (-19)
LD 21% (-6)

If reflected in a General Election, these figures would (I think) see Labour gaining nearly all the target seats where they are 2nd, and a number where they are third. For example - Woking, which is one of the seats polled and is very close to the overall 2019 result forR&W's 'Blue Wall' sample, becomes Lab 35% (+18), Con 31% (-19), LD 25% (-6). 

[alec]

Power grab north of the border! This time it's water -

"Britons who do not pave over garden could receive water bill discount, Ofwat says"

www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/28/uk-water-saving-bills-ofwat

Might be news to the Scottish Water industry regulators.

[jib]

Mar 28, 2023 16:05:18 GMT steve said:

Rafwan

"Not really sure what doctrinal purity is. I know some people would say it is what underpins many of your posts."

I like to think a reasonable grasp of reality underpins my posts.

 lol!

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 28, 2023 17:16:47 GMT James E said:

Blue Wall poll is back to normal - the last one was somewhat of an outlier in the Tories' direction. In the 6 'Blue Wall' polls they've done so far in 2023, the average is Con 32%, Lab 40%, LD 21%, Grn 4%, Ref 4%.

Comparing the figures to GE2019, this latest one is:
Lab 39% (+18)
Con 31% (-19)
LD 21% (-6)

If reflected in a General Election, these figures would (I think) see Labour gaining nearly all the target seats where they are 2nd, and a number where they are third.

The latest Deltapoll was also 'back to normal'

R&W helpfully provide a tracker where the 'back to normal' can be seen.

Polldrums. 

[neilj]

Awkward

[Mr Poppy]

jimjam Were you surprised that the NEC vote was such a strong majority (22 to 12)?

Am I correct in thinking that means Starmer now has control of that important level with LAB? 

Not my party but I thought the vote would have been closer than that. With such a strong majority in the NEC then I can't see how the 'Far-Left' (+Momentum) will have any influence going forward.

It would be nice if CCHQ could dump likes of Boris so easily. Hopefully the Privileges Committee, then HoC vote, then Recall petition, then by-election will see Boris gone later this year. 🤞

[Rafwan]

Steve

I don’t know; different issue. You have previously posted remarks about Corbyn in terms of both antisemitism and brexit which have no basis in reality.

[domjg]

Mar 28, 2023 16:45:29 GMT Mark said:

Mar 28, 2023 16:07:56 GMT domjg said:

Mmn. Just asked my daughter what pudding was today. Ginger cake and custard.. 

Ugh. Custard I've never got why anyone goes near it. To me, it's like [decription redacted so as not to put anyone off who actually eats it].

That said, as much as I love my savouries, I've never had much of a sweet tooth. A few biscuits with my coffee and ice cream when it's hot...and that's about it.

As for that school menu, I would really have struggled with that. Seriously, a tuna sandwich? Beans on toast? Those aren't meals.

Yes, some are...spaghetti bolognaise with garlic bread.....that's a meal, but, so many of the options aren't. Not even close.

I love custard and will happily eat it on it's own straight out of the pan. I don't want my offspring eating it for weekday lunch however!

[shevii]

Mar 28, 2023 17:37:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

jimjam Were you surprised that the NEC vote was such a strong majority (22 to 12)?

Am I correct in thinking that means Starmer now has control of that important level with LAB? 

Not my party but I thought the vote would have been closer than that. With such a strong majority in the NEC then I can't see how the 'Far-Left' (+Momentum) will have any influence going forward.

It would be nice if CCHQ could dump likes of Boris so easily. Hopefully the Privileges Committee, then HoC vote, then Recall petition, then by-election will see Boris gone later this year. 🤞

He's had control for ages Trev! 

Of the unions on the NEC, Unison abstained while GMB, Usdaw and Musicians Union voted in favour of blocking Starmer.  Unison is currently in the process of their leaders not doing what the members want, so still pro Starmer but maybe for not much longer- dunno about musicians union but you'd think their members would not be too happy with this, other than perhaps Phil Collins and Gary Numan assuming they are members!  Rayner was missing in action so no vote and presumably one of those spineless calculated decisions not to attend (I think Boris Johnson did something similar once or twice).  So even if all the union "barons" had switched vote and Rayner had turned up he still has a clear majority for whatever he wants to do.

The interesting one for me was Ann Black who is very much non aligned with any faction and just wants non factional decisions based on their merits, certainly not a Corbynista. She voted against Corbyn being blocked.

[leftieliberal]

inews.co.uk/news/electoral-commission-doubts-postal-vote-applications-legal-conservatives-2232318

Dirty work by the Tories:
Electoral Commission raises doubts over postal vote applications being handled legally by Conservatives

Doubts over whether postal vote applications being sent to thousands of homes across the country by the Conservatives are being handled legally have been raised by the Electoral Commission, i can reveal.

Applications are being returned to local party associations, rather than local councils, causing concern that some people may not be able to vote at the forthcoming local elections in May.

Postal vote applications must be processed by local councils that consider and then issue a postal vote to applicants.

However, the freepost return address on tens of thousands of applications received by residents have been to local Tory associations, rather than local councils.

There are also concerns among voters that Conservatives are using the forms to harvest their data.

[pjw1961]

Mar 28, 2023 18:02:07 GMT shevii said:

Mar 28, 2023 17:37:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

He's had control for ages Trev! 

Of the unions on the NEC, Unison abstained while GMB, Usdaw and Musicians Union voted in favour of blocking Starmer.  Unison is currently in the process of their leaders not doing what the members want, so still pro Starmer but maybe for not much longer- dunno about musicians union but you'd think their members would not be too happy with this, other than perhaps Phil Collins and Gary Numan assuming they are members!  Rayner was missing in action so no vote and presumably one of those spineless calculated decisions not to attend (I think Boris Johnson did something similar once or twice).  So even if all the union "barons" had switched vote and Rayner had turned up he still has a clear majority for whatever he wants to do.

The interesting one for me was Ann Black who is very much non aligned with any faction and just wants non factional decisions based on their merits, certainly not a Corbynista. She voted against Corbyn being blocked.

Good analysis but I would quibble the comment about Unison not doing what its members want. Unison has always been a fairly moderate union, partly reflecting its origins. One of the three unions who merged to create it - NALGO - was not even affiliated to the Labour Party. 

[leftieliberal]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65105951

Kate Forbes, who finished second in the SNP leadership race, is to leave the Scottish government.

The BBC understands the finance secretary was offered a move to rural affairs by the new first minister, Humza Yousaf, but turned down the job.

Well, that hug didn't last long; rural affairs sounds like quite a demotion.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

So… on the spectrum where some are more globalist - and are more for a reduced state while sourcing more from abroad, versus the opposite - where rather more is home grown, it might be no surprise that I tend to think we went rather too far with the globalist thing.

Consequently I was interested in the Tories’ plans for what seemed like rather more home-grown tech. Obviously I knew we might well be disappointed whatever the mooted plans, but still wondered how much, if any, might come to pass.

Initially, on the surface at least, there was the potential for the positive. Vaccine innovations centres, and the sizeable testing regime, the investment in OneWeb, the Space ports, trying for gigafactories (stop laughing alec ), ramping up renewables, hydrogen…and all of these have been messed up in some way. Vaccine innovation centre sold off, testing system dismantled, the French have moved in on OneWeb, the gigafactory had to be rescued and looks like being repurposed somewhat, spaceport launches screwed up because of delays, renewables went ok but were subject to crazy contracts, hydrogen is struggling as well with ITM issuing a third profits warning…

And the latest snafu concerns our largest chip fab, with the attempt to keep it from being bought out by China seeming to be messed up. Meanwhile, in addition to the US big subsidy for green tech, they also have put lots of cash into computer chips as well:

“…the signing of the Chips and Science Act, a comprehensive $280bn state support package.

It included more than $50bn in government loans and R&D tax breaks to revitalise the American semiconductor industry by encouraging foreign producers to build plants on US soil. The European Union equivalent amounts to roughly €43bn of subsidies.” (Telegraph)

In a world still moving leftwards, even though the Tories seem to get the idea of more state support in theory, in practice it could be somewhat better. 

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 28, 2023 18:02:07 GMT shevii said:

Mar 28, 2023 17:37:38 GMT Mr Poppy said:

jimjam Were you surprised that the NEC vote was such a strong majority (22 to 12)?

Am I correct in thinking that means Starmer now has control of that important level with LAB? 

Not my party but I thought the vote would have been closer than that. With such a strong majority in the NEC then I can't see how the 'Far-Left' (+Momentum) will have any influence going forward.

It would be nice if CCHQ could dump likes of Boris so easily. Hopefully the Privileges Committee, then HoC vote, then Recall petition, then by-election will see Boris gone later this year. 🤞

He's had control for ages Trev! 

Of the unions on the NEC, Unison abstained while GMB, Usdaw and Musicians Union voted in favour of blocking Starmer.  Unison is currently in the process of their leaders not doing what the members want, so still pro Starmer but maybe for not much longer- dunno about musicians union but you'd think their members would not be too happy with this, other than perhaps Phil Collins and Gary Numan assuming they are members!  Rayner was missing in action so no vote and presumably one of those spineless calculated decisions not to attend (I think Boris Johnson did something similar once or twice).  So even if all the union "barons" had switched vote and Rayner had turned up he still has a clear majority for whatever he wants to do.

The interesting one for me was Ann Black who is very much non aligned with any faction and just wants non factional decisions based on their merits, certainly not a Corbynista. She voted against Corbyn being blocked.

Thank you for the info. 18-16 would be still have been 'control' but 22-12 was more convincing than I expected but I admit to not really following the "whose who" of internal LAB workings.

Boris has "done a Heathrow" (MIA, AWOL, etc) on votes such as Heathrow but Rishi recently made sure that the WF vote was on a day that Boris had to be on the parliamentary estate so he couldn't duck out of that one. Boris+ERG size is about the same as SCG and small enough to be able to ignore - similar to how Blair could ignore the SCG back in his day. 

Might have been more difficult for Starmer to ensure Rayner recorded a vote on Corbyn rather than going WIA ("doing a Heathrow"?)

Anyway, thank you for the info. 

[oldnat]

Mar 28, 2023 16:45:29 GMT Mark said:

Mar 28, 2023 16:07:56 GMT domjg said:

Mmn. Just asked my daughter what pudding was today. Ginger cake and custard.. 

Ugh. Custard I've never got why anyone goes near it. To me, it's like [decription redacted so as not to put anyone off who actually eats it].

That said, as much as I love my savouries, I've never had much of a sweet tooth. A few biscuits with my coffee and ice cream when it's hot...and that's about it.

As for that school menu, I would really have struggled with that. Seriously, a tuna sandwich? Beans on toast? Those aren't meals.

Yes, some are...spaghetti bolognaise with garlic bread.....that's a meal, but, so many of the options aren't. Not even close.

I think that you would have great difficulty in persuading many of those in primaries 1-5 and those in P6-7 getting the Scottish Child Payment of £25 per week that these free meals "aren't meals". Perhaps sad that SLab voted with SCon against extending the provision of free meals, but Starmer will doubtless ensure that they redouble their efforts to stop such profligacy,

My relatively affluent grandkids get Dad to provide a packed lunch when they don't fancy the menu items, but fortunately they are already sufficiently socially aware to appreciate that their classmates get great value from free meals.

I recommend adopting their values.

[shevii]

Very difficult to judge the decision today in terms of electoral prospects. I get what our centrists are saying that Corbyn not being allowed to stand ought to be a net positive with the soft Tory voters but I also think that had Starmer not created this situation in the first place the soft Tory voters Labour needs to win would not have been bothered one way or another. Blair (and Campbell 1997) would never have deliberately set out to antagonise any set of voters that they could have in their column. Yes they would have put forward their own agenda which might not be popular with the left and soft Tory leaning but they didn't give the left a reason not to vote for them in the way that Starmer has done.

So a non issue becomes one that makes little difference to the Tory swing voters Labour need (remembering a lot of those were single issue brexit ones in the first place) but might make a difference to left wing voters in not voting Labour. Then if Corbyn does run as an independent this will be a constant factor during the campaign(beyond Islington North itself) and those left wing voters will be reminded of reasons why they should perhaps not be voting Labour.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

shevii

Just heard McDonnell on Times Radio saying he thinks it’s possible they might be able to challenge the decision? (I don’t know how party mechanisms work and how feasible that might be)

[graham]

Mar 28, 2023 15:58:33 GMT leftieliberal said:

Mar 28, 2023 15:34:45 GMT graham said:

That was not the point at all . Rather the issue was the timing of those by elections. Had both been held in the late Autumn of 2021 - rather than early May and the beginning of July - it is likely that the seats would have been comfortably retained. That is where Starmer's lack of political 'nous' revealed itself.

With hindsight , I am in two minds as to whether it might have turned out better had Labour lost Batley&Spen in July 2021. That would probably have been the end of Starmer.

So you think it is right to deprive constituents of the services of their MP for many months, just for a questionable political advantage? There should be strict time limits on how long a Parliamentary seat can be kept vacant. Three months seems more than long enough.

That is a non sequitur. The Hartlepool MP could have resigned in July with a by election then in October or November that year. The Batley & Spen MP did not have that flexibility , but there was still no need to hold the by election until after the Summer recess.

[graham]

Mar 28, 2023 18:35:18 GMT shevii said:

Very difficult to judge the decision today in terms of electoral prospects. I get what our centrists are saying that Corbyn not being allowed to stand ought to be a net positive with the soft Tory voters but I also think that had Starmer not created this situation in the first place the soft Tory voters Labour needs to win would not have been bothered one way or another. Blair (and Campbell 1997) would never have deliberately set out to antagonise any set of voters that they could have in their column. Yes they would have put forward their own agenda which might not be popular with the left and soft Tory leaning but they didn't give the left a reason not to vote for them in the way that Starmer has done.

So a non issue becomes one that makes little difference to the Tory swing voters Labour need (remembering a lot of those were single issue brexit ones in the first place) but might make a difference to left wing voters in not voting Labour. Then if Corbyn does run as an independent this will be a constant factor during the campaign(beyond Islington North itself) and those left wing voters will be reminded of reasons why they should perhaps not be voting Labour.

Indeed so.

To repeat a point I made a few weeks ago - if Corbyn stands , I will not be surprised to see 20 - 30 Labour MPs - Campaign Group members - openly endorse him circa 4 weeks before Polling Day. By that time all nominations will have closed so that no further candidates could be selected - or deselected. The MPs concerned would be beyond the reach of Starmer and the NEC for the imminent GE. What could Starmer then do? Could he really disown 20 - 30 MPs almost certain to be elected?

In the event of a Hung Parliament , such a group would have great leverage potentially - and would possibly make their support for a Labour-led government conditional on there being a change of Leader. Clegg forced Brown to step down in 2010.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“Behind virtually every post-war bust lies a commercial property crash, and on some measures, we are again perilously close to one.

According to MSCI's monthly UK property index, the value of commercial property in Britain – office, factory, retail and warehouse space – fell 18pc in the second half of last year from the peak in June. For 2022 as a whole, values fell on average by 13.3pc, according to a separate index compiled by CBRE, a US-based commercial real estate services company.

The picture isn't much better in the United States, where commercial real estate prices have fallen by 5pc since their peak in the middle of last year. Capital Economics is predicting a further fall in the US of 18pc-20pc from here on in, resulting in a peak to trough decline of around 22pc.”

Telegraph

[steve]

Rafwan

I am sure you can reference that if you can't would you like to retract as it's total bollocks. I have never repeat never said Corbyn was antisemitic.

[pjw1961]

Mar 28, 2023 18:19:17 GMT leftieliberal said:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65105951

Kate Forbes, who finished second in the SNP leadership race, is to leave the Scottish government.

The BBC understands the finance secretary was offered a move to rural affairs by the new first minister, Humza Yousaf, but turned down the job.

Well, that hug didn't last long; rural affairs sounds like quite a demotion.

Well she did attack him pretty vigorously in the debates: “When you were transport minister the trains were never on time, when you were justice minister the police were strained to breaking point and now as health minister we’ve got record high waiting times. What makes you think you can do a better job as first minister?"

I'm surprised he offered her rural affairs. First Minster's special representative to St Kilda seemed more likely