26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[Danny]

Mar 24, 2023 22:10:25 GMT alec said:

I really don't think anyone, east or west, would have predicted that the Ukraine invasion would, in little over a year, result in the rapid expansion of Nato and an assumption of Ukraine becoming a western style member of the EU taking hold. Far from extending Russias sphere of influence, in just twelve months Putin has seen Nato creeping farther east, a more politically united EU, a loss of influence over his neighbours and such a weakening of his own power that Russia has become a subordinate junior partner and client state of China. Strategic disaster.

The Ukrainian war was not expected to go as it did. Putin might have hoped to rapidly control key locations in Ukraine and therefore take control of the entire country. Or occupy enough so that he could then strike a peace deal whereby he surrendered some of the occupied territory in return for agreed control of rather more than where he started. Then come back for another slice in a few years.

Instead Ukraine managed to push him out of most of the country and confined his army mostly to areas either already occupied or with a strongly Russian supporting local population. Most important, there is still a hot war where he cannot simply disengage militarily without losing the whole lot.

This was not at all what was intended, but he has to make the best of what he has got. He cannot simply say it was a mistake and survive politically. He has to keep going. But as things stand currently, he has achieved the objective of a land bridge to Crimea and has been busy for months creating defensive fortifications for the occupied regions. The battle for Bakhmut has probably achieved the objective of tying up Ukrainian troops all winter, preventing them attacking his front from elsewhere where it was weakest. With the time bought, he has been building fotifications. Although the cost in Russian troops has been higher, many werent very good troops anyay and there are plenty of potential recruits back home. If the fixed defences work, then he doesnt need those dead troops. More serious perhaps is his dwindling stocks of equipment.

You also have to look at what was the alternative. The west had been creeping closer to Russia, accepting into itself more and more of the unaligned states. Ukraine had already resisted attempts to take control via subversion or propaganda. It was moving away from Russia towards the EU. Waiting would mean it becoming more integrated. Militarily, there is an ex US general blogger who posted a piece about how Ukraine had been redesigning its military on western models, increasing its fighting effectiveness. Which we indeed saw, but presumably was an ongoing process Russia was aware of, that Ukraine's was likely to strengthen. So it was a question of either invade Ukraine now, or lose all chance. The invasion needed the Kerch bridge to be completed to supply the troops, which was completed just before Covid arrived. So covid likely delayed the invasion a few years, which is supported by the fact Putin had been massing troops on the borders through that time, presumably in case covid permitted. I dont know if maybe that delay helped Ukraine enough to have made the difference.

Its hard to see what Russia has lost. Sure, its fuel is subject to sanctions but most of that seems to be still being sold elsewhere. Prices have risen, so income may hardly have fallen. It will have markets for its fuel exports in the future, all it will have lost is the ability to use them as a weapon against Europe, because Europe has sourced fuel elsewhere. This was a one-off weapon which it used while it still could at the best moment. Its economy is likely heavily redirected currently to the war effort, which will change once the war ends and improve conditions at home. Money being spent now on importing arms will flip back to consumer goods. Foreign owned assets will now flip back to Russian control by seizure, or the west walking away. The war is still ongoing, and Putin may still end up with a significantly bigger section of Ukraine. Hardest wil be to extract him from crimea, not least because of the racial cleansing which has been going on there for years now, and has also been ongoing throughout the occupied regions for best part of a year. A long term goal will have been to strip those regions of Ukrainian separatists leaving only pro Russians, so they may democratically seek to unite with Russia even if Russia gets militarily thrown out. None of that looks too bad for Putin in the future.

Wagner group which potentially was rivalling Putin politically on the back of its military success, has been severely depleted by the battle for Bahkmut, and set up for the blame when the city is not taken. So that is the political opposition dealt with, and blame for military failure ready to be placed on them. Within Russia general control of the population has been tightened with the war as the excuse. (notice how that has been happening in the Uk too with various excuses). The war may well still result in teritorial gain, and will have returned Russia as a whole to a more centrally controlled state, with foreign influences expelled. China will remain a major back door for western (made in china anyway) goods. A nice win for Putin.

Ukrains needs many more modern weapons, and needs them fast to break the stalemate. It isnt getting them.

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 24, 2023 20:01:59 GMT colin said:

Mar 24, 2023 16:42:25 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Starmer does appear to bend with the wind even more than most politicians. Perhaps he noticed the polling on 'trans' issues before breaking another pledge / promise / whatever he's calling his views this week.... 

(Tweet mentioning) "The World Athletics Council has banned transgender women from female events"

...It is useful to be 'pragmatic' but if he intends to be PM then he can't just keep changing his mind on stuff from week to weak depending on polling. 

Is he for trans rights or against? Answer seems to depend on whether he is speaking in Stoke-on-Trent to 'Red Wall' voters or speaking in Woke-on-Thames to 'hipster marxists'.

Will the real Keir Starmer ever stand up? 

Politically its a choice between upsetting Feminists or upsetting the militant Trans Lobby.

A no brainer really.

Fortunately for all politicians , the sports bodies are having to address the obvious issues of fairness and level playing field in women's elite sport and their conclusions are setting the agenda.

I would agree that the World Athletics Council have made the correct decision and that will set the agenda for lower level sporting bodies.

Beyond that I'm not getting involved in the TERF wars discussion (although I would lean to JK Rowling's view, I just don't consider it an important issue). I do appreciate there are some people on UKPR2 who have very strong opinions on the matter but I don't think many people in gen.pub consider it an important issue - but if anyone has polling that shows it ranks as an important issue can they post the polling.

However, Starmer does need to decide which side of the fence he is on and can't keep switching sides depending on where he is giving a speech. The politically engaged 'Woke-on-Thames' types will spot when he flips sides and spread the word far further and faster than the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent would - and the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent probably aren't bothered by the whole trans issue anyway. 

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 24, 2023 22:32:19 GMT mercian said:

I wonder if an attack by Russia on say Finland, which would be defended by an air force partly from NATO countries, would be seen as an attack on NATO? It's a good move anyway as it shows that attitudes to Russia are hardening further still.

Finland is now effectively a member of NATO

- The NATO member countries signed Finland's Accession Protocol on 5 July 2022, and Finland became an invitee to NATO
- (23Mar) President of the Republic Sauli Niinistö decided that Finland would commit itself to NATO

valtioneuvosto.fi/en/finland-and-nato

Turkey had been holding up the ratification process but recently conceded:

Turkey’s president says he will support Finland’s bid to join NATO

www.pbs.org/newshour/world/turkeys-president-says-he-will-support-finlands-bid-to-join-nato

Hence Finland would be covered by Article 5: "any attack on a NATO member in Europe or North America “shall be considered an attack against them all.”"

NB I think Hungary still need to formally ratify Finland's accession for Finland to 'officially' be a full NATO member but, post the shift in Turkey's approval, Finland will already covered by NATO's umbrella. 
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212945.htm

[Danny]

Mar 24, 2023 22:20:37 GMT mercian said:

Mar 24, 2023 21:00:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. 

I've given this a bit more thought. I think that what happens as people age and get more experience of life and different viewpoints they tend to move towards the centre because they can see sense in some of the views of folks on the 'other side' rather than just being tribalists.  As most youngsters start off being left wing, this shows up in polls as a rightward movement with age, however it's also consistent with my own move leftwards.

There are always exceptions of course - there are some on this board who show few signs of mellowing with age.  😁

Healy could of course still be a communist and simultaneously see Russia as a dangerous enemy. Nor is it clear whether Russia really is communist rather than a simple dictatorship. He could well have seen the Uk as closer to an ideal communist state than Russia.


The data on the age groups voting for the referendum suggested that while the whole population had shifted against the EU, the pattern remained that those who 50 years before voted to be in still voted in, and the youth who who voted out still voted out as pensioners. Aging had not changed their position. We saw a flip where in the first referendum young voted against and now young voted for, while previosuly old voted for and now voted against. The implication is their views didnt change with time, and were not fundamentally based upon being young or old.

I much more believe that views do not change once formed, but what choice you make will change based upon your personal circumstances. As a penniless youth national policies which benefit you are very different to what will benefit you once you become a house owning pensioner. As things stand national policy has suited the asset owning old and this accounts for electing conservative governments from Thatcher to now. Con's problem however is that the switchover age at which these policies benefit the average voter has been rising steadily pretty much since the start of the Thatcher plan (phase 1 was to give away state assets to relatively young people, and this is no longer possible). And so con are now struggling to get a large enough voter block to be in power. They knew this, thats why they adopted the brexit cause despite its long term harm to the UK.

It makes perfect sense to me that Healey, looking at the Uk and Russia when he was young compared to when he was old, could very easily have flipped sides without changing his beliefs at all.

[alec]

Danny - "Its hard to see what Russia has lost."

Yes, I guess so. Apart from the loss of half a huge army, the destruction of a large proportion of it's active air force, the loss of the Black Sea fleet flagship plus several other vessels, leading to a loss of sea power dominance, the largest shrinkage of population since WWII, the loss of control over their regional sphere of influence and multiple international partners, an immediate loss of 4% of GDP if Russia's own figures are to be believed, more like 8% under independent analyses, the near total cessation of foreign investment likely leading to a decade of stagnation and decline, the visible humiliation and the exposure of the inadequacies of Russia's fabled military might, leading directly to a loss of fear among former Russian vassal states, a dramatic shift in the Sino-Russian power balance to the permanent detriment of Moscow, a fantastically rapid drive by Europe to divest Russian energy interests, an even more impressive global drive to move to renewables, and the loss of MacDonalds in Moscow, yes, you're right - Russia is doing fine.

[steve]

The regime decided it doesn't want media or members of the public at their spring lie fest.

Transparent democracy in action.

[steve]

Brexitanians and the cult of Spaffer?


'Hannah Arendt, who studied the national socialists who committed crimes during the Holocaust, concluded that: “The more successful a liar is, the more likely it is that he will fall prey to his own fabrications.”

This is not as strange as you might think. There is a vast research literature on self-deception and there are many well-documented cases of parents continuing to believe their children to be drug-free when they are openly using in front of them, or spouses continuing to believe in their partner’s faithfulness when everyone else can plainly see that they are playing the field.

The battle of competing beliefs in a person can easily be settled by falling in line with what is most practical or what they most desire to be the case. Sometimes, we call this wishful thinking. Sartre called it living in ‘bad faith’ and thought it was very much part of human reality.

It is well demonstrated that those who have a higher opinion of themselves often fare better and become more successful than those who are inclined to be modest. In times of crisis, they may fall back onto their capacity for self-flattery and self-reassurance, using bombastic and self-aggrandising tactics. It would not be hard to illustrate this contention with many examples from the past three years in British politics. "

[Mr Poppy]

Obviously not my polity but a 'theory' piece discussing why+when DUP might end their strike and get back to work:

Renewed Hope For Northern Ireland Government Return After May Elections
www.politicshome.com/news/article/government-hopes-dup-will-return-to-stormont-northern-ireland-may-elections

Hhhmmm... to continue to say they'll stay on strike up to the May LEs and then 'suddenly' decide to end the strike soon after?!? There is always another election coming up and TUV could then call DUP 'sell outs', 'traitors', etc

Also opens chance for UUP to peal off 'softer' Unionist votes between now and May by portraying themselves as the 'sensible' Unionist party that secured concessions that led to the WF and now wants Stormont to function. If DUP 'fold' soon after the May LEs then UUP will still have had 'first mover advantage'. 

DUP have rowed themselves up a creek, missed the exit ramp with the big sign saying "take the win" and are without a paddle. 

Fold now and they look weak but with the WF signed off then they can't stay on strike forever. So timing wise then maybe the 'theory' of after May elections comes true but TUV and UUP will likely be the winners when DUP eventually decide that their strike is achieving nothing* and IMO the longer DUP wait then more stupid they will look when they do eventually end their strike.

DUP are going the way of the ERG and all other political dinosaurs. With no further use then they are now just useful eejiots as Selfie Stick Steve and HH worked out a while ago. 

* Even a 'bung' at this point probably wouldn't help as being 'paid off' is not a good look either - notably for Rishi, given the experience that May had thinking she had bought DUP MP votes. 

[alec]

For those interested - just posted a new study from Scotland on long covid prevalence over on the covid thread. It's claimed as a world first, using health records at country level to identify LC cases, and they conservatively estimate 1.8% have the condition, although they think this is a significant underestimation. They equate the healthcare system burden to be on a par with that from strokes or COPD, so very substantial. Very surprisingly, that was actually reported on the BBC website!

As with earlier data (I've also repeated the link to the Canadian study into increased individual healthcare demand post covid infection) if you're happy to live with covid as at present, prepare to pay substantially more tax or accept marked reductions in healthcare access. There are no other choices. [The Canadian study implies something like a 10% increase in healthcare needs post infection overall, so roughly translating this to the NHS, a 10% uplift in demand would potentially need an extra £18bn a year on the total NHS budget. But I'm sure someone will be along shortly to say it's fine, and everyone's actually really healthy and there is loads of spare capacity within the NHS anyway].

[barbara]

Mar 24, 2023 22:20:37 GMT mercian said:

Mar 24, 2023 21:00:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. 

I've given this a bit more thought. I think that what happens as people age and get more experience of life and different viewpoints they tend to move towards the centre because they can see sense in some of the views of folks on the 'other side' rather than just being tribalists.  As most youngsters start off being left wing, this shows up in polls as a rightward movement with age, however it's also consistent with my own move leftwards.

There are always exceptions of course - there are some on this board who show few signs of mellowing with age.  😁

I've gone the other way. I voted for Margaret Thatcher in 1983. When I saw the damage her government was doing to working people and the wealth being accumulated by Tory donors and other already wealthy business people I gave my head a wobble and examined my conscience and my values and moved sharply left. Been there ever since. My position is vindicated by seeing again the damage Tory governments do to my country, my country's reputation abroad and its most disadvantaged citizens.

[domjg]

Mar 25, 2023 8:29:43 GMT alec said:

Danny - "Its hard to see what Russia has lost."

Yes, I guess so. Apart from the loss of half a huge army, the destruction of a large proportion of it's active air force, the loss of the Black Sea fleet flagship plus several other vessels, leading to a loss of sea power dominance, the largest shrinkage of population since WWII, the loss of control over their regional sphere of influence and multiple international partners, an immediate loss of 4% of GDP if Russia's own figures are to be believed, more like 8% under independent analyses, the near total cessation of foreign investment likely leading to a decade of stagnation and decline, the visible humiliation and the exposure of the inadequacies of Russia's fabled military might, leading directly to a loss of fear among former Russian vassal states, a dramatic shift in the Sino-Russian power balance to the permanent detriment of Moscow, a fantastically rapid drive by Europe to divest Russian energy interests, an even more impressive global drive to move to renewables, and the loss of MacDonalds in Moscow, yes, you're right - Russia is doing fine.

I meant to link an article about Russia's demographic crisis from the NYT I think it was here a while back but forgot.

Up to a few years ago they had manage to slow some of the very high yearly population loss they experienced until the mid 2000s but in the last decade that had accelerated again and the war and their disastrous handling of Covid has just put that into overdrive due to people (educated people) fleeing and deaths and injuries.

One stat stayed with me was that today the life expectancy of the average Russian man is lower than that of a man from Bangladesh.

[barbara]

Mar 25, 2023 7:03:58 GMT steve said:

Spaffer should have company when he's held in contempt of parliament.

youtu.be/Cd5Lul37nS4

Lindsay Hoyle is toothless and will do nothing. He constantly warns MPs at PMQs that he will send them out but as far as I'm aware he has never actually done that.  Dorries and Rees Mogg should be suspended from the House while an investigation into their alleged contempt is carried out. Will it happen? Not likely. Our democracy is crumbling before our eyes. And all in aid of the internal interests of the Tory Party.

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 8:15:01 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mar 24, 2023 20:01:59 GMT colin said:

Politically its a choice between upsetting Feminists or upsetting the militant Trans Lobby.

A no brainer really.

Fortunately for all politicians , the sports bodies are having to address the obvious issues of fairness and level playing field in women's elite sport and their conclusions are setting the agenda.

I would agree that the World Athletics Council have made the correct decision and that will set the agenda for lower level sporting bodies.

Beyond that I'm not getting involved in the TERF wars discussion (although I would lean to JK Rowling's view, I just don't consider it an important issue). I do appreciate there are some people on UKPR2 who have very strong opinions on the matter but I don't think many people in gen.pub consider it an important issue - but if anyone has polling that shows it ranks as an important issue can they post the polling.

However, Starmer does need to decide which side of the fence he is on and can't keep switching sides depending on where he is giving a speech. The politically engaged 'Woke-on-Thames' types will spot when he flips sides and spread the word far further and faster than the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent would - and the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent probably aren't bothered by the whole trans issue anyway. 

Agreed.

[Deleted]

Mar 24, 2023 20:24:52 GMT domjg said:

Mar 24, 2023 19:37:45 GMT colin said:

 The modern tory party cares not a jot and has nothing to offer these people.

Which one are you talking about ?

[Danny]

Mar 25, 2023 8:29:43 GMT alec said:

Danny - "Its hard to see what Russia has lost."

Yes, I guess so. Apart from the loss of half a huge army,

Most of the troop losses are of no consequence, easily replaced by others just as bad. There was a significant reported loss of officers, but russia has been reforming its army based upon its initial disastrous performance. There has been enough time now for the survivors from the start of the war to have learnt from experience a lot more than the original officers new from theory. So picking new leaders from those who learnt the hard way has likely overall improved the capability of the officer corps.

the destruction of a large proportion of it's active air force

The airforce proved mostly useless in this war because it was well countered by ground attacks. So that is not loss to its effectiveness. But it isnt really clear the total losses have been numerically significant. Its not as if the west has been willing to give ukraines a serious number of planes either to attack Russia.

the loss of the Black Sea fleet flagship plus several other vessels, leading to a loss of sea power dominance,

The ship loss is of no real consequence, just politically embarassing. Ships sink quite easily in wartime and losses are to be expected. The loss did not cause Russia to lose control of the black sea, in reality the ship was sunk because Russia never had control of the sea. Russia reacted to withdraw its ships further away from ukraine, but that was just acknowledgement they were initially so close as to be in danger. This withdrawal has not materially affected russian ability to threaten third party shipping and blockade Ukraine if it wishes. At the moment it seems to have negotiated a deal allowing it sea traffic as well as Ukraine. Not to its disadvantage if its sneaking in foreign arms in return for sales of ukrainian grain.

There is a clear analogy with WW1 german and british fleets, where both spend most of their time in ports as far away from their opponent as possible, but forayed out from time to time for specific operations.

the largest shrinkage of population since WWII,

The nice thing about having a system of elite education, is you can always find some new candidates to train up in the longer run. Russia has also been busy stealing children from occupied Ukraine to make good some of its losses. But realistically, Russia massively outnumbers ukraine, its not going to care.

the loss of control over their regional sphere of influence and multiple international partners,

This was happening already. This war was making use of its remaining influence to try to achieve some gains, while it still had any influence at all. Nothing is ultimateley lost if it doesnt work.

an immediate loss of 4% of GDP if Russia's own figures are to be believed, more like 8% under independent analyses,

The numbers are irrelevant. GDP is a terrible measure of real econoic power as I herd some economists agreeing recently. Its just a convenient measure. You may have noticed how the Uk GDP has fluctuated in recent years too. End the war and it will recover, its temporary.

the near total cessation of foreign investment likely leading to a decade of stagnation and decline,

Stagnation and decline is your wishful thinking. What will happen is repatriation of russian assets which had become foreign owned. Initially thats a big boost, the foreigners cannot take their infrastructure away. What happens in the future remains to be seen. In the UK government has praised 'foreign investment' which simply meant foreigners buying up UK assets which then either send profits abroad, or the entire company moves abroad.

the visible humiliation and the exposure of the inadequacies of Russia's fabled military might, leading directly to a loss of fear among former Russian vassal states, a dramatic shift in the Sino-Russian power balance to the permanent detriment of Moscow, a fantastically rapid drive by Europe to divest Russian energy interests, an even more impressive global drive to move to renewables, and the loss of MacDonalds in Moscow, yes, you're right - Russia is doing fine.

It seems Russia was seeking to rival the effectiveness of Sudam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction. But the final result will be Russia having an army at the end of this war which is far more capable than at the start. Sure, its currently suffering equipment shortages but those will be replaced. Putin is probably very happy to see the back of mcDonalds, russia really does not need the US to own restaurants in Russia, thats daft. The energy weapon was a one time thing, which would have been worthless if it had never been used at all, and Russia will still be able to sell its fuel. In a few years including to Europe. China is probably happy how things are going in dominance terms, disappointed in terms of Russia's ability to challenge the west, but short of active war breaking out between them they remain rivals with significant common cause.

On the renewables front, I remind everyone Russia has just been fighting to take control of the largest european deposits of some of the minerals necessary for the renewables revolution. Plus all the grain growing area he can keep. Still all in play.

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 2:43:58 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Mar 24, 2023 20:01:59 GMT colin said:

This was the scene at the anti trans rally in Melbourne last week organised by British "feminist" Kellie Jay Keen (AKA Posie Parker) and funded by CPAC...

Isn't globalism a wonderful thing !

Nazis generally are not noted for their feminist ideals

In South Dakota trans teenagers  are being forced to detransition .

What they are doing to trans people today is what they will do to you tomorrow if they think they can get away with it..... Although on reflection probably not you Colin ... I suspect you'll be OK

Yes -I was reading about the Far Right in Australia. It is generating a welcome political response .

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/20/victoria-to-ban-nazi-salute-after-anti-trans-protest-melbourne-australia

thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/03/20/far-right-nazi-australia-extremism/

Here is a view that the Melbourne protests were quite a melting pot:-

 unherd.com/thepost/the-truth-about-posie-parker-and-the-neo-nazis/

[Danny]

Mar 25, 2023 8:47:09 GMT alec said:

For those interested - just posted a new study from Scotland on long covid prevalence over on the covid thread.

No Alec, you just posted yet another covid report right here. So I shall reply. Thats democracy.

It's claimed as a world first, using health records at country level to identify LC cases, and they conservatively estimate 1.8% have the condition, although they think this is a significant underestimation. They equate the healthcare system burden to be on a par with that from strokes or COPD, so very substantial. Very surprisingly, that was actually reported on the BBC website!

No idea why you think the BBC reporting a pro government line news item is strange. Government needs to blame the failings of the NHS on covid rather than austerity, which is where the real problems lie. Did you read my piece on austerity costing ten million life years in the Uk compared to covid 3 million? (on figures which maximise covid harm rather than more realistic ones). I was interested if you agree the calculations?

And the biggst problem with reseacrh identifying long term consequences of covid is that there are no equivalent investigations into long term effects from other diseases. The likelihood is that covid is much the same in its long term effects as other similar diseases we have always lived with.

[steve]

Pensioner Baby John Redwood getting a quick dose of reality.

youtu.be/P5sZQPd6IDU

[hireton]

I'm old enough to remember when the tabloid press ran headlines about the "gay mafia" allegedly running Blair's Labour government.

So this is a useful reminder for those like Starmer who think political leadership is waiting for public approval:

I expect Starmer will soon be talking about respecting the "legitimate concerns" of those who support conversion therapy and those who want a new section 28.

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 9:26:35 GMT colin said:

Mar 25, 2023 2:43:58 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

This was the scene at the anti trans rally in Melbourne last week organised by British "feminist" Kellie Jay Keen (AKA Posie Parker) and funded by CPAC...

Isn't globalism a wonderful thing !

Nazis generally are not noted for their feminist ideals

In South Dakota trans teenagers  are being forced to detransition .

What they are doing to trans people today is what they will do to you tomorrow if they think they can get away with it..... Although on reflection probably not you Colin ... I suspect you'll be OK

Yes -I was reading about the Far Right in Australia. It is generating a welcome political response .

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/20/victoria-to-ban-nazi-salute-after-anti-trans-protest-melbourne-australia

thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/03/20/far-right-nazi-australia-extremism/

Here is a view that the Melbourne protests were quite a melting pot:-

 unherd.com/thepost/the-truth-about-posie-parker-and-the-neo-nazis/

No doubt Pauline Hanson had nothing to do with the anti trans protesters either ...

[bardin1]

Mar 25, 2023 8:57:40 GMT barbara said:

Mar 25, 2023 7:03:58 GMT steve said:

Lindsay Hoyle is toothless and will do nothing. He constantly warns MPs at PMQs that he will send them out but as far as I'm aware he has never actually done that.  Dorries and Rees Mogg should be suspended from the House while an investigation into their alleged contempt is carried out. Will it happen? Not likely. Our democracy is crumbling before our eyes. And all in aid of the internal interests of the Tory Party.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmlJn35-xxg

I suppose he left before he was expelled but this is the only occasion I can think of where he ordered it to happen. Appropriate moment to watch this again too.

Still toothless, as you say

[lululemonmustdobetter]

In regards to Ukraine, it does seem that the next couple of months will be critical. This is the window of opportunity for Ukraine a number of analyst were identifying 3/4 months ago. With Russia having now spent its most recent mobilisation with little to show for it, and before it can fully mobilise it military industrial base. Conversely, the Ukraine will shortly be in a position to deploy new weaponry supplied by the West.

Everyone knows a counter-offensive will be launched soon. What's not so clear, is how much Russia has help back in order to defend against it? One of the reasons they haven't managed to take Bakhmut, is probably due to Russia rationing munitions. They may also have been counting on Ukraine withdrawing.

Any likely inpact on UK VI. Well if a successful rout of Russian forces coincides with the locals it may have some marginal affect.

I did see a piece of reporting on the situation in Russia a week or so ago, which had a focus on wives and mothers. The shear pointless loss of life of young men, the pain and sufferings of their relatives, is heart-breaking - Putin is just as much a curse on the people of Russia as he is of those in Ukraine. I really hope he gets what's due to him in this life.

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 10:13:46 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Mar 25, 2023 9:26:35 GMT colin said:

Yes -I was reading about the Far Right in Australia. It is generating a welcome political response .

www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/20/victoria-to-ban-nazi-salute-after-anti-trans-protest-melbourne-australia

thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/03/20/far-right-nazi-australia-extremism/

Here is a view that the Melbourne protests were quite a melting pot:-

 unherd.com/thepost/the-truth-about-posie-parker-and-the-neo-nazis/

No doubt Pauline Hanson had nothing to do with the anti trans protesters either ...

Australian politics ,are a matter for Australians in my view.

Identity politics can be awfully corrosive of political discourse. It seems obvious too that the more atomised the expression of identities , the more likely there will be conflicting interests between them.

On Gender-the sporting bodies seem to demonstrate that where lawmakers can focus precisely on a single issue-like the integrity and credibility of female competitive sport-the easier it is to arrive at appropriate conclusions and regulation.

[moby]

Mar 25, 2023 8:15:01 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Mar 24, 2023 20:01:59 GMT colin said:

Politically its a choice between upsetting Feminists or upsetting the militant Trans Lobby.

A no brainer really.

Fortunately for all politicians , the sports bodies are having to address the obvious issues of fairness and level playing field in women's elite sport and their conclusions are setting the agenda.

However, Starmer does need to decide which side of the fence he is on and can't keep switching sides depending on where he is giving a speech. The politically engaged 'Woke-on-Thames' types will spot when he flips sides and spread the word far further and faster than the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent would - and the small audience in Stoke-on-Trent probably aren't bothered by the whole trans issue anyway. 

Why are you so concerned what Starmer thinks on the issue. Are you genuinely interested in his views for moral reasons or do you see it as an area of political vulnerability for him and something to be exploited?
I get the impression you say you disapprove of 'culture war' politics but will gladly relish raising such issues if it pushes the numbers up of your constituency.

[Danny]

Mar 25, 2023 10:24:18 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

In regards to Ukraine, it does seem that the next couple of months will be critical.

Considering this war was supposed to last a fortnight, the timescale might be a bit longer than that. But I know what you mean, Russia needs to build a defensive line separating its captured territory from Ukraine. We dont know how effectively it has done this, but it has been building succesive lines of fortifications prioritising the southern parts of what it has captured.

This is the window of opportunity for Ukraine a number of analyst were identifying 3/4 months ago.

A winter campaign was talked about. Russia has managed to prevent that by staging a battle over bakhmut, which was of no strategic importance except for both sides to contain the fight at a place they didnt care about.

With Russia having now spent its most recent mobilisation with little to show for it,

On the contrary, it has defended its gains and stabilised the lines around the captured territory. It will be much harder to shift Russia now than had a counter offensive been possible last year. As to the men, Russia seems to have cancelled new mobilisation because it couldn't train men fast enough. But it is likely keeping pace with losses, indeed still growing numbers. Its biggest problem is likely equipment, not manpower. And some of that is being resolved by using massive stocks of old equipment which is being refurbished.

One of the reasons they haven't managed to take Bakhmut, is probably due to Russia rationing munitions. They may also have been counting on Ukraine withdrawing.

I think they may have counted on Ukraine NOT withdrawing. The original western suggestion was that Russia attacked this unimportant place because it just wanted an easy victory to report in its media. However, by choosing the spot where fighting would happen at somewhere unimportant, it drew Ukrainian forces away from anywhere which IS important to Russia. The Ukrainian logic is correct, they have to engage Russia at a spot which gives them a military advantage. You cannot just leave an enemy army to do as it likes. Russia has adopted a cannon fodder approach as so often in its history, and first to be thrown into the meat machine was the independent Wagner group army. Losing them has some clear political pluses for Putin. Alongside them first went some of the fairly incompetent conscript regiments, and only latterly after Wagner were in collapse did Russia send some of its own best troops.

Clearly this means the aim wasnt simply to destroy Wagner, Russia needed this fight to continue. Was this simply so they could claim a victory somewhere, or did it have real military benefit in keeping Ukraine from mounting operations which might have really hurt Russia's ability to hold or resupply its forces?

As to russia rationing munitions, clearly it is. The question indeed is whether this is because its building stocks elsewhere for an engagement, or its running low. Analysis argues its running low.

Any likely impact on UK VI. Well if a successful rout of Russian forces coincides with the locals it may have some marginal affect.

Its so hard to tell. But Russia has been moving to a defensive rather than offensive position. That means Ukraine needs the ammunition more than than Russia, because it will have to become the one bombarding Russian positions, instead of as in Bakhmut Russia attacking Ukrainian positions. Any sensible army would have used the last 6 months creating strong defences it can hold. If it has, Ukraine either needs a very cunning plan, or this war isnt ending any time soon.

I did see a piece of reporting on the situation in Russia a week or so ago, which had a focus on wives and mothers. The shear pointless loss of life of young men, the pain and sufferings of their relatives, is heart-breaking - Putin is just as much a curse on the people of Russia as he is of those in Ukraine. I really hope he gets what's due to him in this life.

Doubt its going to happen. Putin would never have begun this war unless whoever is in power in Russia had agreed it was the right action.  By the end of this he will have destroyed Wagner group as the only potential armed opposition.

[leftieliberal]

Mar 25, 2023 10:28:58 GMT colin said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:13:46 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Australian politics ,are a matter for Australians in my view.

Identity politics can be awfully corrosive of political discourse. It seems obvious too that the more atomised the expression of identities , the more likely there will be conflicting interests between them.

On Gender-the sporting bodies seem to demonstrate that where lawmakers can focus precisely on a single issue-like the integrity and credibility of female competitive sport-the easier it is to arrive at appropriate conclusions and regulation.

What matters in sport is that anyone who has gone through male puberty will have an advantage over a natal female and that advantage cannot be completely removed by taking drugs to reduce their testosterone level. The medical evidence supporting this is strong, which is why sports governing bodies have now acted. It has always been unethical in my opinion for governing bodies to require elite athletes to take drugs to reduce their testosterone levels so that they can compete as women. The introduction of an open category in athletics removes this need; a trans woman can still use the women's changing room even if competing in an open category.

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 10:28:58 GMT colin said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:13:46 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Identity politics can be awfully corrosive of political discourse. It seems obvious too that the more atomised the expression of identities , the more likely there will be conflicting interests between them.

On Gender-the sporting bodies seem to demonstrate that where lawmakers can focus precisely on a single issue-like the integrity and credibility of female competitive sport-the easier it is to arrive at appropriate conclusions and regulation.

gesture politics

noun British

"political actions or positions taken chiefly to gain publicity or influence public opinion, typically requiring little effort or having no significant impact."

[barbara]

Mar 25, 2023 10:21:41 GMT bardin1 said:

Mar 25, 2023 8:57:40 GMT barbara said:

Lindsay Hoyle is toothless and will do nothing. He constantly warns MPs at PMQs that he will send them out but as far as I'm aware he has never actually done that.  Dorries and Rees Mogg should be suspended from the House while an investigation into their alleged contempt is carried out. Will it happen? Not likely. Our democracy is crumbling before our eyes. And all in aid of the internal interests of the Tory Party.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmlJn35-xxg

I suppose he left before he was expelled but this is the only occasion I can think of where he ordered it to happen. Appropriate moment to watch this again too.

Still toothless, as you say

Ironic that he only acts when MPs tell the truth under the arcane rules of the HoC but not when MPs traduce Parliament by alleging a Select Committee is a 'kangaroo court'. 
That says it all. 

[Deleted]

Mar 25, 2023 10:28:58 GMT colin said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:13:46 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Identity politics can be awfully corrosive of political discourse. 

So how come you are always always the one bringing them up?

[neilj]

Average of polling