pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 20:54:42 GMT
James E - just one final thought on multi-member wards and voting. I will try and illustrate what is the problem with your suggested method of looking at all the votes and why it is not used via a thought experiment.
Suppose there is a three member ward. 1000 voters turn up to vote, half of whom support the Conservatives and half support Labour. However, for whatever reason, the Conservatives have fielded three candidates and Labour only one. The Conservative candidates each receive 500 votes. The Labour candidate also received 500 votes.
If you look at all the votes since the Conservatives got 1500 votes and Labour only 500, this would look like a 75% Conservative ward. Only of course it isn't. The Highest vote method will take account of just one Conservative candidate on 500 votes and the Labour candidate on 500 votes and treat this as a 50/50 ward, which is what it is. As it happens, in this case my averaging method would also call it as 50/50.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 21:00:42 GMT
Mercian is wrong about Starmer being Labour because of 'cool mates' - both his parents were Labour Party members and he was named after Keir Hardie. His mother and father were a nurse and a toolmaker respectively. In his youth Starmer was certainly a socialist, although like many he has tacked rightwards as he has aged. This from his Wikipedia page: Well I did just say it was my impression. It's how he comes across to me, and presumably at least some other voters. He rarely seems comfortable discussing policy even in vague terms (which I understand because he doesn't want to give Tories ammunition). Anyway the bit I highlighted was because this was discussed on the board some time ago and the consensus seemed to be against the idea. I think it's generally true, even though I myself am now to the left of where I was as a youngster. I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 24, 2023 21:01:03 GMT
James E - just one final thought on multi-member wards and voting. I will try and illustrate what is the problem with your suggested method of looking at all the votes and why it is not used via a thought experiment. Suppose there is a three member ward. 1000 voters turn up to vote, half of whom support the Conservatives and half support Labour. However, for whatever reason, the Conservatives have fielded three candidates and Labour only one. The Conservative candidates each receive 500 votes. The Labour candidate also received 500 votes. If you look at all the votes since the Conservatives got 1500 votes and Labour only 500, this would look like a 75% Conservative ward. Only of course it isn't. The Highest vote method will take account of just one Conservative candidate on 500 votes and the Labour candidate on 500 votes and treat this as a 50/50 ward, which is what it is. As it happens, in this case my averaging method would also call it as 50/50. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 24, 2023 21:05:42 GMT
I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. |
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Post by hireton on Mar 24, 2023 21:07:15 GMT
Starmer going full colonialist in his visit to Scotland:
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 21:15:45 GMT
pjw1961 and James EI've found the discussion about multi-member wards and how to calculate swing very interesting.
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jib
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Post by jib on Mar 24, 2023 21:19:23 GMT
This from the Telegraph would be hilarious if Brexit wasn't the most serious mistake of UK statecraft since Munich: Yeh, right! A democratic decision to leave a Federal Superstate project vs an attempt to appease rabid nationalistic nutters who wanted to refight WW1 (and eventually did, and lost again). Come on! The UK has made plenty of enemies over the years from Suez, to the Falklands to Iraq. Brexit is but a realignment that all parties will eventually realise is the right decision. |
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Post by James E on Mar 24, 2023 21:22:14 GMT
James E - just one final thought on multi-member wards and voting. I will try and illustrate what is the problem with your suggested method of looking at all the votes and why it is not used via a thought experiment. Suppose there is a three member ward. 1000 voters turn up to vote, half of whom support the Conservatives and half support Labour. However, for whatever reason, the Conservatives have fielded three candidates and Labour only one. The Conservative candidates each receive 500 votes. The Labour candidate also received 500 votes. If you look at all the votes since the Conservatives got 1500 votes and Labour only 500, this would look like a 75% Conservative ward. Only of course it isn't. The Highest vote method will take account of just one Conservative candidate on 500 votes and the Labour candidate on 500 votes and treat this as a 50/50 ward, which is what it is. As it happens, in this case my averaging method would also call it as 50/50. That analysis is good for your suggested scanario, as there is no-one for whom the Labour voters can cast their second or third choice votes. But it seems highly unlikely that Lab would field only one candidate where they might expect an even contest. On the other hand, where the Tories are strong favourites (as in Rushden South) it makes tactical sense to field just three candidates spread across the LoC parties, as they will be very likely to each receive the two parties' combined vote. Hence the strategy of Labour fielding two candidates and Greens one in a three member contest. - and the collapse of the Green vote when the same ward is re-fought in a single vote by-election. |
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Post by Mark on Mar 24, 2023 21:32:02 GMT
Mark - can you confirm for the Luddite contingent on here what actually counts as an attachment? I'm assuming links, links to tweets etc are not attachments, but I don't know. I can do some deleting if that would help, but I'm not sure if I'm contributing to the problem. I'll try to be as basic - and as clear as I can with this. A link, eithor to twitter or anywhere else, is NOT an attachment. It is simply a pointer to something elsewhere on the internet. An attachment is a file. Usually uploaded from a members hard drive to the board. The vast bulk of attachments on UKPR2 are picture files (jpg format), but an attachment can be a file of any type. |
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2023 21:34:28 GMT
Re - Rushden South at the May 2021 elections. The total electorate was 11692 with three councillors to be elected. In the highly unlikely event of all electors turning out to vote - and each casting three votes - a total of circa 35,000 votes would have been recorded. In fact, only 8,036 votes were recorded - which rather implies that no more than circa 3,000 electors actually turned out. Of those 3,000 votes, circa 1,800 appear to have voted Tory - ie circa 60%.
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Post by hireton on Mar 24, 2023 21:43:51 GMT
This from the Telegraph would be hilarious if Brexit wasn't the most serious mistake of UK statecraft since Munich: Yeh, right! A democratic decision to leave a Federal Superstate project vs an attempt to appease rabid nationalistic nutters who wanted to refight WW1 (and eventually did, and lost again). Come on! The UK has made plenty of enemies over the years from Suez, to the Falklands to Iraq. Brexit is but a realignment that all parties will eventually realise is the right decision. You sound a little stressed. Keep repeating vapid slogans if it helps you. Now run along and play with your right wing Brexit friends. |
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jib
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Post by jib on Mar 24, 2023 21:57:46 GMT
Yeh, right! A democratic decision to leave a Federal Superstate project vs an attempt to appease rabid nationalistic nutters who wanted to refight WW1 (and eventually did, and lost again). Come on! The UK has made plenty of enemies over the years from Suez, to the Falklands to Iraq. Brexit is but a realignment that all parties will eventually realise is the right decision. You sound a little stressed. Keep repeating vapid slogans if it helps you. Now run along and play with your right wing Brexit friends. Not stressed at all - in fact, the new normal is very satisfactory. You're the one stressed & plugging tired stereotypes.  |
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Post by alec on Mar 24, 2023 22:10:25 GMT
This looks like an interesting story, and another outcome of Putin's disastrous war -
Creating what is effectively a combined Nordic air force of 250 fighter jets is presumably going to create a powerful single force. In context, according to a brief internet search this is roughly double what the RAF has in terms of active fighters, although others with better knowledge of military matters might be able to add details. Sweden and Finland are also moving towards formal integration into Nato, and recent opinion polling from Europe indicated support for Ukraine becoming an EU member was over 60%.
I really don't think anyone, east or west, would have predicted that the Ukraine invasion would, in little over a year, result in the rapid expansion of Nato and an assumption of Ukraine becoming a western style member of the EU taking hold. Far from extending Russias sphere of influence, in just twelve months Putin has seen Nato creeping farther east, a more politically united EU, a loss of influence over his neighbours and such a weakening of his own power that Russia has become a subordinate junior partner and client state of China. Strategic disaster.
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 22:20:37 GMT
Well I did just say it was my impression. It's how he comes across to me, and presumably at least some other voters. He rarely seems comfortable discussing policy even in vague terms (which I understand because he doesn't want to give Tories ammunition). Anyway the bit I highlighted was because this was discussed on the board some time ago and the consensus seemed to be against the idea. I think it's generally true, even though I myself am now to the left of where I was as a youngster. I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. I've given this a bit more thought. I think that what happens as people age and get more experience of life and different viewpoints they tend to move towards the centre because they can see sense in some of the views of folks on the 'other side' rather than just being tribalists. As most youngsters start off being left wing, this shows up in polls as a rightward movement with age, however it's also consistent with my own move leftwards. There are always exceptions of course - there are some on this board who show few signs of mellowing with age. 😁 |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2023 22:24:33 GMT
Sooo… The Times asked ChatGPT to “write a speech that the next prime minister of the UK would make from 10 Downing Street after winning the next general election”, it responded with the following: “My fellow citizens of the United Kingdom, today I stand before you with a sense of deep gratitude and humility as your newly elected prime minister. I am honoured and privileged to have been chosen to lead our great nation at a time when we face unprecedented challenges and opportunities.
As we look to the future, I am acutely aware of the responsibility that has been entrusted to me. I promise to work tirelessly to serve the interests of our country, and to prioritise the needs and aspirations of all our citizens, regardless of their background or circumstances.
In my first 100 days in office, I will focus on five key priorities that I believe are essential to securing a brighter and more prosperous future for our country.
First and foremost, we must take decisive action to tackle the climate crisis. We owe it to future generations to preserve our planet and its precious resources. As a country, we have a responsibility to lead the way in reducing our carbon footprint, investing in renewable energy, and transitioning to a more sustainable and resilient economy. I will work closely with our international partners to ensure that we remain at the forefront of the fight against climate change, and that we build a greener, more prosperous future for all our citizens.
Second, we must prioritise investing in our public services. Our NHS, schools, and social care systems have been stretched to breaking point in recent years, and we must take immediate action to restore them to their former strength and glory. I will commit significant resources to our public services, ensuring that they have the support and funding they need to deliver the highest quality care and education to all our citizens.
Third, we must focus on rebuilding our economy in a way that benefits all our citizens, not just the few. Our economic system has become increasingly unequal and unsustainable, and we must take bold and innovative steps to create a fairer, more inclusive economy. I will work to invest in new technologies and industries, create new opportunities for growth and innovation, and support small businesses and entrepreneurs across the country.
Fourth, we must prioritise investing in our young people. They are the future of our country, and we owe it to them to provide the best possible education and opportunities for success. I will work to increase funding for schools, colleges, and universities, and to create new apprenticeships and skills-training programmes that enable young people to acquire the knowledge and skills they need to succeed in the workforce.
Finally, we must focus on building a more cohesive and inclusive society. Our country is diverse and multicultural, and we must celebrate that diversity and work to promote greater understanding and tolerance among all our citizens. I will work to tackle discrimination and inequality, promote cultural exchange and understanding, and support community-based initiatives that bring people together and foster a greater sense of social cohesion.
These are just a few of the priorities that I will focus on in my first 100 days in office. I am committed to working with all our citizens, regardless of their political affiliation, to deliver real and meaningful change for our country.
I recognise that we face significant challenges ahead, but I am confident that, with your support and dedication, we can overcome these challenges and build a better and more prosperous future for all our citizens.
Thank you, and God bless the United Kingdom.”
Interesting exercise but very boring speech. Nobody would start with the climate crisis when the economy's buggered and people are paying 50 quid to boil the kettle. Nobody would mention young people either - why?
Likewise, "public services" and multiculturalism/diversity don't get many running to the ballot box. "Not just the few" is too Corbyn, and please don't get us to a point where a PM says "God bless the UK" 🤮
Otherwise loved it!
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 24, 2023 22:31:14 GMT
This looks like an interesting story, and another outcome of Putin's disastrous war - Creating what is effectively a combined Nordic air force of 250 fighter jets is presumably going to create a powerful single force. In context, according to a brief internet search this is roughly double what the RAF has in terms of active fighters, although others with better knowledge of military matters might be able to add details. Sweden and Finland are also moving towards formal integration into Nato, and recent opinion polling from Europe indicated support for Ukraine becoming an EU member was over 60%. I really don't think anyone, east or west, would have predicted that the Ukraine invasion would, in little over a year, result in the rapid expansion of Nato and an assumption of Ukraine becoming a western style member of the EU taking hold. Far from extending Russias sphere of influence, in just twelve months Putin has seen Nato creeping farther east, a more politically united EU, a loss of influence over his neighbours and such a weakening of his own power that Russia has become a subordinate junior partner and client state of China. Strategic disaster. |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 22:32:19 GMT
alecI wonder if an attack by Russia on say Finland, which would be defended by an air force partly from NATO countries, would be seen as an attack on NATO? It's a good move anyway as it shows that attitudes to Russia are hardening further still.
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Post by leftieliberal on Mar 24, 2023 22:36:31 GMT
What you need is preferential voting in such wards - something that SLD forced upon SLab when they had the opportunity. That Clegg/Alexander didn't demand that for England may have been that SLDs proved not to be the beneficiaries - though it's not clear who the English LDs might have feared would supplant them. I think that had the LibDems asked for STV for local council elections in England (which would also have meant ending elections by thirds for English District Councils) they would have got it without a referendum because the Tories knew they could always reverse it once they had an overall majority (as they have done with SV for Mayoral elections). The downside of ending elections by thirds under FPTP is that you have to put up a full slate of candidates every four years. With elections by thirds you can keep putting up the same candidate in successive years until they either get elected or get fed up of standing, so in principle you only need one-third as many candidates. I also think that portraying LibDem support for STV as something principally intended to benefit LibDems is mistaken. It is a consequence of the Party's dedication to individualism rather than statism - giving the voter the power to choose between candidates from the same Party, rather than being presented with a Party List (as in Holyrood elections) where the order of candidates on the list is fixed. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 24, 2023 23:07:47 GMT
What you need is preferential voting in such wards - something that SLD forced upon SLab when they had the opportunity. That Clegg/Alexander didn't demand that for England may have been that SLDs proved not to be the beneficiaries - though it's not clear who the English LDs might have feared would supplant them. I think that had the LibDems asked for STV for local council elections in England (which would also have meant ending elections by thirds for English District Councils) they would have got it without a referendum because the Tories knew they could always reverse it once they had an overall majority (as they have done with SV for Mayoral elections). The downside of ending elections by thirds under FPTP is that you have to put up a full slate of candidates every four years. With elections by thirds you can keep putting up the same candidate in successive years until they either get elected or get fed up of standing, so in principle you only need one-third as many candidates. I also think that portraying LibDem support for STV as something principally intended to benefit LibDems is mistaken. It is a consequence of the Party's dedication to individualism rather than statism - giving the voter the power to choose between candidates from the same Party, rather than being presented with a Party List (as in Holyrood elections) where the order of candidates on the list is fixed.
You are mistaken in thinking "that you have to put up a full slate of candidates every four years." Parties in STV systems don't do that. The art is in nominating the number of candidates that might be elected.
The closed list system that we have under AMS was a Labour construct (agreed by LDs) - as was their ensuring that the untramelled sovereign UK Parliament could override the devolved legislatures whenever they chose. |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 23:35:03 GMT
The closed list system that we have under AMS was a Labour construct (agreed by LDs) - as was their ensuring that the untramelled sovereign UK Parliament could override the devolved legislatures whenever they chose.I'm logging off after this so don't bother replying, but we all live in the UK, therefore obviously the UK Parliament is sovereign. The Scottish Parliament is one step down from that, as are English county councils. The Scottish Parliament has far more powers than an English county council so I don't see the problem. If Scotland ever holds another independence referendum and wins independence it's obviously a different situation. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 23:48:40 GMT
I meant it relatively of course. Starmer's personal beliefs are likely still LoC, even if he is terrified to say so. Another example (of many) would be Denis Healey who was a Communist as a youth and ended up with the nickname of "the Member for NATO". Kinnock also. I believe Healey broke with the Communist Party over the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact in 1939, which had a similar effect to that the crushing of the Hungarian uprising in 1956 did on a later generation of western Communists. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 25, 2023 0:03:55 GMT
pjw1961 and James E I've found the discussion about multi-member wards and how to calculate swing very interesting. Mercian, James E, Graham - I have some (admittedly old) data about this. The FWS Craig GE election results 1918-49 volume contains breakdowns of the voting in the constituencies that returned 2 MPs in that period (Blackburn, Bolton, Brighton, Derby, Norwich, Oldham, Preston, Southampton, Stockport, Sunderland, Dundee). I could post some of this data in a separate thread if people are interested? It mainly follows what you would expect (i.e. 2 Con v 2 Lab) but there are significant amounts of cross-voting at times. By the way there is a rather lovely name for people who only cast only one vote when they have two (or more) - they are called 'plumpers'. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 25, 2023 0:10:47 GMT
I think that comparison is inappropriate, as it ignores the extremely polarised politics of the 1930s, when political folk on the centre-right and centre-left were pushed out of the centre towards Fascism or Communism. I believe Healey broke with the Communist Party over the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact in 1939, which had a similar effect to that the crushing of the Hungarian uprising in 1956 did on a later generation of western Communists. |
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Post by graham on Mar 25, 2023 0:13:48 GMT
pjw1961 and James E I've found the discussion about multi-member wards and how to calculate swing very interesting. Mercian, James E, Graham - I have some (admittedly old) data about this. The FWS Craig GE election results 1918-49 volume contains breakdowns of the voting in the constituencies that returned 2 MPs in that period (Blackburn, Bolton, Brighton, Derby, Norwich, Oldham, Preston, Southampton, Stockport, Sunderland, Dundee). I could post some of this data in a separate thread if people are interested? It mainly follows what you would expect (i.e. 2 Con v 2 Lab) but there are significant amounts of cross-voting at times. By the way there is a rather lovely name for people who only cast only one vote when they have two (or more) - they are called 'plumpers'. I am familiar with 'plumpers'. The Top candidates for a given party are surely likely to be the better known for whatever reason - and more likely to pull in personal votes, thereby somewhat exaggerating underlying party support. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Mar 25, 2023 0:37:26 GMT
The closed list system that we have under AMS was a Labour construct (agreed by LDs) - as was their ensuring that the untramelled sovereign UK Parliament could override the devolved legislatures whenever they chose.I'm logging off after this so don't bother replying, but we all live in the UK, therefore obviously the UK Parliament is sovereign. The Scottish Parliament is one step down from that, as are English county councils. The Scottish Parliament has far more powers than an English county council so I don't see the problem. If Scotland ever holds another independence referendum and wins independence it's obviously a different situation.
In many states, there are systems in which different levels of government are all sovereign within their agreed areas of responsibility. Your point is only "obvious" in the context of the current interpretation of what the UK describes as its "constitution" - ie what the sovereign UK Parliament says it is!
The UK might have been reconstructed in a number of different ways, both before and after the demise of Empire, and I could have (and still might) support some of these. However, unreconstructed UKanian/British/English [1] Nationalists insist on binary choices (which force those in rUK to react similarly).
Legislative devolution has not proved to be a satisfactory settlement for the UK (preferable as it is to mere administrative devolution), and its weaknesses become ever clearer as an English Nationalist Party in power at Westminster, undermines autonomy elsewhere.
Genuine UK Unionists should really examine what they want from that union, and cease adopting the "sit down and sit at the back of the bus" approach.
Indeed, for England itself, the continued transfer of power from Parliament to Downing St should be ringing alarm bells, just as these bells are clanging in rUK.
A useful examination of the issues raised by the Tory power grab (which seems unlikely to be reversed by GB Labour) can be found here -policyexchange.org.uk/blogs/ministerial-powers-and-devolved-competence/[1] I include these alternatives due to the inability of some (though thankfully not many on here) in the largest polity to have sufficient geographic cognisance that they are not synonyms. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 25, 2023 2:43:58 GMT
Starmer does appear to bend with the wind even more than most politicians. Perhaps he noticed the polling on 'trans' issues before breaking another pledge / promise / whatever he's calling his views this week. It is useful to be 'pragmatic' but if he intends to be PM then he can't just keep changing his mind on stuff from week to weak depending on polling. Is he for trans rights or against? Answer seems to depend on whether he is speaking in Stoke-on-Trent to 'Red Wall' voters or speaking in Woke-on-Thames to 'hipster marxists'. Will the real Keir Starmer ever stand up? Politically its a choice between upsetting Feminists or upsetting the militant Trans Lobby. A no brainer really. Fortunately for all politicians , the sports bodies are having to address the obvious issues of fairness and level playing field in women's elite sport and their conclusions are setting the agenda. This was the scene at the anti trans rally in Melbourne last week organised by British "feminist" Kellie Jay Keen (AKA Posie Parker) and funded by CPAC...
Isn't globalism a wonderful thing !
Nazis generally are not noted for their feminist ideals
What they are doing to trans people today is what they will do to you tomorrow if they think they can get away with it..... Although on reflection probably not you Colin ... I suspect you'll be OK
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 25, 2023 7:03:58 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Mar 25, 2023 7:37:43 GMT
This from the Telegraph would be hilarious if Brexit wasn't the most serious mistake of UK statecraft since Munich: Yeh, right!A democratic decision to leave a Federal Superstate project vs an attempt to appease rabid nationalistic nutters who wanted to refight WW1 (and eventually did, and lost again). That a decision is democratically arrived at does not prevent it being disastrous. Although in this case it was not democratically delivered, because the referendum failed to ask all UK citizens affected by the change, and the courts ruled that to base a decision upon the referendum would be unlawful. It was not therefore a democratic decion by referendum choice of Uk citizens. It was democratic in the sense that MPs decided to vote for it, but be clear it wasnt the choice of all Uk citizens because they were never all asked. Worthy of Hitler or Putin that, only ask the citizens who you think will agree with you. |
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Post by alec on Mar 25, 2023 7:39:32 GMT
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Post by hireton on Mar 25, 2023 7:58:25 GMT
colin"Politically its a choice between upsetting Feminists or upsetting the militant trans...." No, it isn't. It's a choice between upsetting militant trans exclusionary radical feminists and their far right allies and doing something to help one of the most vulnerable minorities in society supported by the great majority of the LGBT community. It's also a choice between some leadership and not doing so.
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