c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 24, 2023 14:49:38 GMT
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 14:50:28 GMT
@jimjam But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems. LDEM seem to like getting shafted but Blair didn't need them. Davey doesn't have any policies so will likely do whatever Starmer asks IMO, although he'd probably want a red briefcase rather than an informal arrangement (IMO). If Starmer wants someone to blame for unpopular policies then 'dull as dishwater' Davey is his man, as Calamity Clegg was for Cameron  TBC but using a different example then Drakeford suckered PC into a 'Cooperative Agreement'* and that seemed risky and unnecessary to me at the time but it seems to benefitting LAB more than PC (although obviously not my polity). * www.gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-11/cooperation-agreement-2021.pdf |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 14:53:22 GMT
@jimjam But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems. When did Wilson do that? I can't be bothered to look it up, so am relying entirely on a fading brain cells and could be wrong but I seem to remember that there was a very close election in the early 1970s when the Liberals held the balance and Thorpe thought he had some kind of understanding with Wilson which turned out not to be the case in practice. Anyone with a better memory or more energy to look it up is welcome to correct me. Anyway, whatever the past history (and those events were when many current MPs weren't even born), the question still stands - would the LibDems support Labour in some sort of coalition or confidence arrangement if the situation made it possible? |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 14:55:20 GMT
In the unlikely event that that were to happen I wonder what the effect would be on Labour morale after having such high expectations? Would they have another massive reset and rebuild from scratch again? More to the point what does that say about the English electorate (large part thereof). It would show that they don't like Labour very much. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 14:59:46 GMT
YG tabs are up and the main reason for their reversal in CON VI is a return to higher DKs amongst CON'19 CON'19 x-break (change on the week) CON: 40% (-8) DK: 23% (+4) LAB: 11% (+1) etc Very little change in LAB'19 x-break but they'll have indirectly benefitted from the increase in CON'19 DKs. Must also be some changes in LTV but they're more fiddly to look into. docs.cdn.yougov.com/lrtwqx86p8/TheTimes_VI_230322_W.pdf |
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2023 15:01:26 GMT
I can't be bothered to look it up, so am relying entirely on a fading brain cells and could be wrong but I seem to remember that there was a very close election in the early 1970s when the Liberals held the balance and Thorpe thought he had some kind of understanding with Wilson which turned out not to be the case in practice. Anyone with a better memory or more energy to look it up is welcome to correct me. Anyway, whatever the past history (and those events were when many current MPs weren't even born), the question still stands - would the LibDems support Labour in some sort of coalition or confidence arrangement if the situation made it possible? Wilson and Thorpe never had such a deal at all. Thorpe's Liberals never held the balance of power. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 15:06:09 GMT
Talk is cheap. The record of political pundits in predicting things is dismal. 538 have a lot on that subject. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 15:08:09 GMT
All the usual caveats but interesting that Con actually increased their percentage. This has happened quite aLooking at the figure few times since we've been looking at these results. I think that it due to the way that the results are presented. Here are the figures for when the seat was last contested in May 2021. northnorthants.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=23The Tories (collectively) achieved 68% of the vote then, so in my view, were down 11 points. The two Labour candidates achieved 20% between them, with the Greens taking 7% and LDs 6% - each with a single candidate. Because each of them fielded fewer than 3 candidates, I would suggest that those Lab, LD and Green candidates who did stand last time benefitted from being the 'second choice' from each others' voters. It is a standard agreed way of doing the percentages in multi-member wards - just take the top one for each party. People have more than one vote but not everyone uses them all, so can't really add all the candidates together. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 24, 2023 15:10:04 GMT
Apparently lunatic brexitanian pub landlord Tim Martin has seen profits at his chain of gin palaces fall by 91%. And Tim's been complaining , no one apparently warned Tim an ardent campaigner for Brexit using his pub as a propaganda outlet for the leave campaign that losing freedom of movement and leaving the single market and customs union that he vociferously supported would have consequences.
Apparently the lack of young European staff prepared to serve racist drunks for minimum wage following our exit from the European union has caused significant issues. Combined with the fact that costs associated with importing products from the European union have risen dramatically.Tim isn't happy and wants something done about it.
Oh dear, how sad , never mind.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 24, 2023 15:15:26 GMT
Talk is cheap. The record of political pundits in predicting things is dismal. 538 have a lot on that subject. Yes I didn’t post it because I agreed with it, but because it seems various media organs seem to be pushing the same line at the moment. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 15:18:15 GMT
More to the point what does that say about the English electorate (large part thereof). It would show that they don't like Labour very much. Or at least not Starmer-LAB. From the most recent Ipsos Political Monitor Attachment DeletedBlair was a lot higher, so was Cameron. Starmer is down with the 'failed' to get elected group. Although see p10 and note Sunak is down in the 'didn't recover' group. It would nice if they put the dates of GEs onto those slides but worth noting likes of Thatcher, Blair and Cameron were often -ve satisfaction but managed to time their peaks nicely. TBC on Rishi but he is starting from a very low point (maybe can recover to a Brown kind of level that denies LAB an OM??) Quite happy to repeat my prediction that turnout will drop as GE'24 is going to be 'Battle of the Boring' (after the GE'19 'Battle of the Barstards' and the high turnout for Anyone Buts and the Boris boost of 'Get Brexit Done') www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-03/Ipsos_Feb_2023_Political_Monitor_Charts_070323.pdf |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 24, 2023 15:20:43 GMT
Yougov on best PM
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? (21-22 March)
Rishi Sunak: 25% (-1 from 7-8 March)
Keir Starmer: 31% (+1)
Not sure: 40% (-2)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2023 15:30:29 GMT
In the unlikely event that that were to happen I wonder what the effect would be on Labour morale after having such high expectations? Would they have another massive reset and rebuild from scratch again? More to the point what does that say about the English electorate (large part thereof). I realise that when asked by you , that is a rhetorical question with a bitter frustrated and offensive answer. But -even when asked by you-in the event of a Tory win , it would be the key question. Here's a few suggested answers:- * It would say that they recognise a difference between Sunak and his two predecessors. * It would say that they accept that Starmer isn't Corbyn, isn't Johnson & isn't Truss..but still don't know what he IS. * It would say that jaundiced regret about Brexit is not a bar to voting for a man who is fixing its problems and getting on with EU leaders * * It would say that in the post populist politics of UK, Sunak has demonstrated he can quietly fix things , whilst Starmer can only claim that he can. * It would say a weird thing which should worry Labour-that The Conservative Party's past misdeeds are forgivable , but the Labour Party's are not.-ie a charge that Sunak is merely fixing problems he helped create has little traction. Actually-since I find that last proposal unlikely-I don't think you should be printing those "England's White Working Class are Idiots " posters just yet . But I do think that its already clear that , for some , the massive open goal which Starmer stood in front of when Johnson was goalie is already becoming a distant memory. And relying on complaining that Sunak has paid more tax than him, but not enough tax ,may not be enough to get Starmer into No 10. *-it may occur to them today, for example, that a high level Anglo French meeting was postponed because of nation wide political unrest & street protests in France -and not UK |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 24, 2023 15:34:03 GMT
Reflecting on the tweet further, it occurs that it can highlight the difference between some lectures and others. To quote the tweet:
1993: walk in on the hour, put notes
on lectern, talk.
2023: arrive 15+ minutes early, turn on PC, log in with 2 factor authentication using app on phone, press buttons to bring down screen and adjust lighting, fix IT issues, download slides from VLE that were download slides from VLE that were uploaded 24 hours in advance, per requirements, set up slide show, generate attendance code from app on phone and give out, initiate lecture recording, pin microphone to lapel, take a deep breath, start talking.
So basically, in the Nineties some of them turned up to talk for a bit. Nowadays, they have to use a bit of tech to prove they talked and that people attended the talk, capture the talk and the slides etc.
But you are still mostly just talking and using tech to just monitor bits. As opposed to teaching dozens of others to use the tech. Back in the Nineties for people like me, it was more like…
…Book computer room in advance. Make sure software required is installed on the system. Get logins from the computer department for the students. Arrive early to boot up computers and set up etc… Maybe attach keyboards and headphones and stuff. find out the wrong logins have been issued and you can’t use the computers to do what you planned etc. etc.
Or… arrive early to set up the recording studio. Switch all the gear on, sign out bits of kit from the media centre, load the tape, set up the desk, patch in the effects units and load samples and set up the synths, set up mics, load music software etc. etc., and then of course set up the projector, maybe record the lecture, realise someone has blown one of the monitor speakers…
(Of course technicians might help with bits - if you had any, I didn’t in FE, only HE - and it helped once the students could help set things up which was something that got sorted quite quickly!)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2023 15:42:55 GMT
I watched it all and I thought the Committee missed a few questions. Notably on the basis for his belief that the assemblies complied with Social Distancing Guidelines. Not once did any of them say that this belief can only be valid if the mitigations for failure to social distance were in place and reasonable-and then ask him what mitigations were put in place. There was a brief opportunity to get him on this when Harman observed that glasses were presumably poured and passed from person to person. Johnson grunted and the moment passed. There is an elephant in this room which presumably all the MPs are ignoring. The background issue of whether any of these measures truly resulted in medical benefit for the individuals or population as a whole. Of course they are. It is irrelevant to their task. Which is to decide whether Johnson lied to Parliament . After his defence they simply have to establish whether the Pandemic Public Health Rules and their guidelines at the relevant time , supported his belief that the No. 10 Office Farewell Parties with alcohol ,and his attendance at them , were necessary, unavoidable business/work meetings with appropriate social distancing mitigations. |
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Post by birdseye on Mar 24, 2023 16:22:18 GMT
I can't be bothered to look it up, so am relying entirely on a fading brain cells and could be wrong but I seem to remember that there was a very close election in the early 1970s when the Liberals held the balance and Thorpe thought he had some kind of understanding with Wilson which turned out not to be the case in practice. Anyone with a better memory or more energy to look it up is welcome to correct me. Anyway, whatever the past history (and those events were when many current MPs weren't even born), the question still stands - would the LibDems support Labour in some sort of coalition or confidence arrangement if the situation made it possible? Depends if Starmer were willing to make noises abourt PR. It will be fascinating to see which he dislikes least - PR or another Scottish referendum. |
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 16:24:17 GMT
I was aware Starmer has made more 'pinky promises' for another of his latest pledges priorities missions and is fortunate that no one is asking him how these kinds of promises are going to be funded or whether or not they would even make much difference. How many extra police would this promise need? Not much partisan difference but gen.pub tied on whether or not it would even be effective.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 16:42:25 GMT
... * It would say that they accept that Starmer isn't Corbyn, isn't Johnson & isn't Truss..but still don't know what he IS... Starmer does appear to bend with the wind even more than most politicians. Perhaps he noticed the polling on 'trans' issues before breaking another pledge / promise / whatever he's calling his views this week. It is useful to be 'pragmatic' but if he intends to be PM then he can't just keep changing his mind on stuff from week to weak depending on polling. Is he for trans rights or against? Answer seems to depend on whether he is speaking in Stoke-on-Trent to 'Red Wall' voters or speaking in Woke-on-Thames to 'hipster marxists'. Will the real Keir Starmer ever stand up? |
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Post by James E on Mar 24, 2023 16:46:47 GMT
I think that it due to the way that the results are presented. Here are the figures for when the seat was last contested in May 2021. northnorthants.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=23The Tories (collectively) achieved 68% of the vote then, so in my view, were down 11 points. The two Labour candidates achieved 20% between them, with the Greens taking 7% and LDs 6% - each with a single candidate. Because each of them fielded fewer than 3 candidates, I would suggest that those Lab, LD and Green candidates who did stand last time benefitted from being the 'second choice' from each others' voters. It is a standard agreed way of doing the percentages in multi-member wards - just take the top one for each party. People have more than one vote but not everyone uses them all, so can't really add all the candidates together. I am really surprised by your defending this way of analysing results, as. It flies in the face of common sense. While 'not everyone' uses all of their three votes, surely the reality must be that the majority do. In particular, I would expect that most of those minded to vote Conservative would have voted for their three candidates rather than just one or two. Also with only 2 Lab candidates and one each for the LD and Greens, it is obvious to me that all of Lab, Green and LD would have benefitted from picking up votes where they were second choices. So the apparent 'collapse' in the LD and Green vote shares in this by-election is obviously an artefact of the voting system, and number of candidates who stood 2 years ago rather than reflecting any change in voters intentions. And the Tory vote is really down by 13 points (not the 11 I quoted earlier, and certainly not up 5 points). Incidentally, the turnout for the local election in 2021 was somewhere between 23% (if all those who voted used all three votes) and 69% (if voters each cast just one vote). Which do you think is the more likely? |
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Post by alec on Mar 24, 2023 17:07:59 GMT
Mark - can you confirm for the Luddite contingent on here what actually counts as an attachment? I'm assuming links, links to tweets etc are not attachments, but I don't know. I can do some deleting if that would help, but I'm not sure if I'm contributing to the problem.
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Post by pete on Mar 24, 2023 17:34:50 GMT
Got Covid-again.
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Post by alec on Mar 24, 2023 17:43:08 GMT
Best wishes pete - take care. Lots of rest. Boots Dual Defence nasal spray and regular use of mouthwashes with chlorhexidine digluconate (Corsodyl 0.2% is one) have been found to clear the virus quicker and ease symptoms and infectivity if used quickly after infection and on a regular (several times a day) basis. There is some indication that more rapid clearance of the virus reduces risks of more severe bouts and long covid, but I'm not sure how robust that evidence is at this stage. But plenty of rest, even once you feel better. It won't make you feel better, but possibly less lonely, but around 1 in 40 are infected according to the latest and last ONS infection survey. Crazy that a world beating monitoring system is being disbanded. |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 17:59:14 GMT
... * It would say that they accept that Starmer isn't Corbyn, isn't Johnson & isn't Truss..but still don't know what he IS... Starmer does appear to bend with the wind even more than most politicians. Perhaps he noticed the polling on 'trans' issues before breaking another pledge / promise / whatever he's calling his views this week. ... It is useful to be 'pragmatic' but if he intends to be PM then he can't just keep changing his mind on stuff from week to weak depending on polling. Is he for trans rights or against? Answer seems to depend on whether he is speaking in Stoke-on-Trent to 'Red Wall' voters or speaking in Woke-on-Thames to 'hipster marxists'. Will the real Keir Starmer ever stand up? My impression is that he doesn't really have any strong beliefs. Having decided to go into politics he chose Labour because it's where all his cool mates were. He's vaguely lefty but only because it's not cool to be a Tory. At least Corbyn believed in something. |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 18:02:22 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 24, 2023 18:20:35 GMT
In news from across the pond
Wannabe fascist theocrats House Republicans took a victory lap on Friday afternoon after passing their midterm campaign promise by passing what they called the “parents bill of rights”.
Presumably the celebrations involved dancing around the burning books they banned from school libraries .
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 24, 2023 18:25:16 GMT
colinBefore you get too excited I think the worst case scenario predicted here is that somehow the Tories aren't completely wiped out but " only " lose around 90 seats.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 24, 2023 18:25:56 GMT
Incredible and people say the EU isn't democratic
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 18:26:59 GMT
.. Will the real Keir Starmer ever stand up? My impression is that he doesn't really have any strong beliefs. Having decided to go into politics he chose Labour because it's where all his cool mates were. He's vaguely lefty but only because it's not cool to be a Tory. At least Corbyn believed in something. Could arguably say Blair, Cameron and Boris never really had strong beliefs other than wanting to be PM one day and picking a team which gave them their best chance (CON if you went to Eton* and LAB if the current LAB lot are useless, as they often are). It's also not clear what Rishi believes in on some issues (eg is he really strong on immigration or just knows that is considered an important issue by voters he needs, so has put 'mad as a brush' Braverman onto it to keep the RW of CON MPs happy?) However, there is a difference (IMO) being a 'pragmatist' that gets the people's priorities done, even if they don't fully believe in the policies themselves, and a flip-flopper who says one thing one day then the opposite the next. EG Rishi has made CON policy on trans rights clear (by blocking Scotland) but Starmer is flip-flopping. Without wishing to drag back up Brexit then Rishi was a True Br-Leaver and has finished the unfinished business in NI (all signed off today). Starmer?!? Poster boy of Remain (HoC 17-19), broken pledges on FoM since and now trying to appeal to Leave'16 voters in areas he knows LAB need to win in GE'24. Grab a barge pole for trust in what Starmer might decide his policies and beliefs are next week. Truss, like Corbyn, was an 'ideologist' and I don't think we want one of those in #10. IMO Rishi does want to cut taxes but knows he can't do that right now. Folks might disagree with some of his (+Hunt's) choices but I think we'll start to see Rishi approval improve further, and possibly drag CON VI with it, as most people probably do appreciate we do need someone who gets stuff done and makes the difficult choices. * Or if you know you're pretty crap and would never make it the top of CON then maybe LDEM and hope one of your chums from school gives you a red briefcase to form a coalition. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 24, 2023 18:27:08 GMT
peteBest of luck four times for me and not had more than a sniffle and a bit of a cough and no symptoms at all the last two times. Hope you stay well.
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steve
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Post by steve on Mar 24, 2023 18:28:16 GMT
neilj . RESIGNATION (Dis)HONOURS REVEALED:
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