Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 11:47:17 GMT
PP's last poll was the 'rogue' Green VI. Their latest is closer to the average:
YG showed a reversal of recent narrowing but Tecne and PP today show slight further narrowing. So overall not much change but quite a bit of 'noise'?
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Post by bardin1 on Mar 24, 2023 11:51:01 GMT
I thought it was so great that 50 years later I am selling second hand medieval history books in my online business (Hadwebutknown books) My daughter's experience studying through lockdown was interesting. Lectures switched entirely to online of course during the pandemic. What is interesting is that a high proportion are still being delivered online and it is clear the lecturers prefer that. I think its sad, as part of the university experience is the live interaction with tutors, lecturers and other students. Well advertised sir! I immediately had to have a look! My son's degree was disrupted by Covid as were my daughter's A levels. I think my son missed out on part of the Uni experience, although he still enjoyed it, and remote learning was not good for my daughter. I originally put the website address but then realised....I agree re remote learning. Worse still there were no extra mural activities. My daughter had been a national rowing champion while at secondary in england but couldn't even join the club at Glasgow. Did no other extra mural stuff. My son, at Edinburgh from the year previously, had joined the volleyball club and they were able to continue down at portobello beach by training at beach volleyball. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Mar 24, 2023 12:03:26 GMT
Interesting R4 light entertainment program just now by Lemn Sissay. R4 likes to go in for thought provoking stand up performers. Anyway, he was talking about people brought up in state care. Apparently they are 70% more likely to die early than those not. One there for alec to get his teeth into. |
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2023 12:10:02 GMT
Re- University courses. It has long occurred to me how pretty well impossible it is to have the university experiences of earlier generations - even when focussing on a specific degree course at a particular university. Studying PPE at Oxford today would be far removed from the experiences of Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Roy Jenkins et al in the late 1930s. Obviously the tutors would be different as would be the course material and the teaching methods employed.I know of people who have applied for this course on account of its association with such illustrious predecessors - but in truth they are seeking something which is simply not possible in that the 1930s PPE course has long ceased to exist!
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Mar 24, 2023 12:12:47 GMT
People Polling's numbers for Scotland continue to make no sense at all.
SLab 20% : SCon 8% : SLD 7% : SNP 34% : REFUK 5% : SGP 5% : Other 6% : DK etc 15% - All cases
SLab 21% : SCon 9% : SLD 7% : SNP 44% : REFUK 7% : SGP 5% : Other 7% - Only cases selecting a party
Regardless of the small sample, the calculations on LTV should produce a credible result. For the SNP share to increase by 10% is ludicrous.
EDIT : If a part of a pollster's methodology is flawed, then it casts severe doubts on the reliability of the entire poll. It may be that PP are using some additional (and unmentioned) LTV weighting such as "Those voting for a party that is minor in GB/English terms, must be more determined to vote".
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 12:22:21 GMT
Re- University courses. It has long occurred to me how pretty well impossible it is to have the university experiences of earlier generations - even when focussing on a specific degree course at a particular university. Studying PPE at Oxford today would be far removed from the experiences of Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Roy Jenkins et al in the late 1930s. Obviously the tutors would be different as would be the course material and the teaching methods employed.I know of people who have applied for this course on account of its association with such illustrious predecessors - but in truth they are seeking something which is simply not possible in that the 1930s PPE course has long ceased to exist! They might be seeking other things as well. Seems to be a amazing establishment (all party) networking opportunity. Look at the contemporary politicians and journalists on this list: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_University_of_Oxford_people_with_PPE_degrees |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 24, 2023 12:22:33 GMT
Re lectures, I did my law degree later in life. Meant doing it part time (over 4 years rather than 3) at Wolverhampton University
Lectures were in the evening and as I was working shifts it meant I missed some, but kind people let me have a copy of their notes for the required lecture
When I could attend them on the whole I enjoyed them, except for one lecturer
He used to just read from the course text book and he was not an engaging speaker
In the end I stopped going to his lectures and after a few weeks I received a letter with the threat of expulsion unless I had a good reason
I told the truth, explained my time was also precious and I could read a book in my own time and cut out the travelling time. Never heard anything more
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 12:25:12 GMT
Rushden South LG by-election result
Con 54.6% (+5.2)
Lab 28.8% (+6.6)
LD 7.1% (-6.3)
Breakthrough 5.4% (new)
Green 4.2% (-10.8)
Turnout 19.3%
Edit: Breakthough are a far left party btw
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 24, 2023 12:28:12 GMT
Looking at the latest People's polling, if you look at changes from the 8th March, Labour are up 1 and tories down 1
Between those dates they are all over the shop
Edit, they're all over the shop full stop
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Mar 24, 2023 12:41:21 GMT
The yougov poll also appears a rogue one, as much as I'd like it to be true
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Post by alec on Mar 24, 2023 12:46:21 GMT
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 12:49:24 GMT
Rushden South LG by-election result Con 54.6% (+5.2) Lab 28.8% (+6.6) LD 7.1% (-6.3) Breakthrough 5.4% (new) Green 4.2% (-10.8) Turnout 19.3% Edit: Breakthough are a far left party btw All the usual caveats but interesting that Con actually increased their percentage. This has happened quite a few times since we've been looking at these results. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 12:50:26 GMT
Rushden South result compared to Electoral Calculus MRP:
Rushden South is in Wellingborough parliamentary constituency (Peter Bone's seat - he had a majority of 18,540 in 2019). EC are forecasting Labour to capture it by 46.2% to 31.8% (as part of their forecast epic Labour landslide). They give Labour an 83% chance of winning and the Conservatives 17%.
Within this their forecast for Rushen South ward is Labour 43.3%, Conservative 32.9%. The by-election result was Conservative 54.6%, Labour 28.8%. If this result were reflected at a GE then rather than Labour winning with a majority of c6,000, the Conservatives would hold the seat with a majority of around 9,800.
This comes back to my view that the forecasts of a Labour landslide remain unlikely to be realised. A more modest Labour victory remains the likeliest GE outcome.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 24, 2023 13:06:31 GMT
Rushden South LG by-election result Con 54.6% (+5.2) Lab 28.8% (+6.6) LD 7.1% (-6.3) Breakthrough 5.4% (new) Green 4.2% (-10.8) Turnout 19.3% Edit: Breakthough are a far left party btw All the usual caveats but interesting that Con actually increased their percentage. This has happened quite a few times since we've been looking at these results. I think based on the local government election info you've given us of late the tories are surreptitiously on course for a secret landslide next year  |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 13:06:33 GMT
Wildly optimistic (IMO), selective use of polling and perhaps jimjam is the source for "a key Labour supporter close to the inner sanctum admitted to me that they personally think this election won’t be the one" but some Friday fun clickbait:
I now think Rishi Sunak is going to win the next electionwww.standard.co.uk/comment/rishi-sunak-win-next-general-election-emily-sheffield-b1069701.htmlIIRC Starmer tried to shift another of his trans(ient) views on his visit outside of London y'day (Stoke-on-Trent being a long way from Woke-on-Thames). Anyway some other click-bait that shows that sitting on the fence with a Janus head on so many issues can't last forever. Strategically he needs to win back the Red Wall (RoC on Social Issues) and take a bit of a liberty that the Far-Left/Liberal types will still turn out to vote for LAB to kick CON out. Although sticking with that approach to win 2+ terms won't be easy.
Keir Starmer will lose election campaign on day one unless he shifts his trans rights position, Labour strategists warn
news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-will-lose-election-campaign-on-day-one-over-his-trans-rights-position-labour-strategists-warn-12841099 |
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 13:13:07 GMT
Labour would have to gain around 40 seats just to get rid of the Tory majority. In the 21 GEs since the war this has been done 10 times if I've counted right - 6 by Tories and 4 by Labour (1964, 1966, 1992 and 1997 - I'm not counting 1945).
I would expect Labour to do that, but the comparative rarity shows that even that is a pretty good achievement. To get a working majority they'd need to gain about 120 seats. That was only done in 1997 when they gained 147 from a higher base. So a huge achievement just to get a very small majority. The general lack of massive enthusiasm for Labour in the locals taken as a whole seems to indicate that more than that is unlikely.
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 13:16:48 GMT
In the unlikely event that that were to happen I wonder what the effect would be on Labour morale after having such high expectations? Would they have another massive reset and rebuild from scratch again? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 13:26:13 GMT
Labour would have to gain around 40 seats just to get rid of the Tory majority. In the 21 GEs since the war this has been done 10 times if I've counted right - 6 by Tories and 4 by Labour (1964, 1966, 1992 and 1997 - I'm not counting 1945). I would expect Labour to do that, but the comparative rarity shows that even that is a pretty good achievement. To get a working majority they'd need to gain about 120 seats. That was only done in 1997 when they gained 147 from a higher base. So a huge achievement just to get a very small majority. The general lack of massive enthusiasm for Labour in the locals taken as a whole seems to indicate that more than that is unlikely. The Rushden South by-election implies a 6.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour since 2019 in the Wellingborough seat. If you put that into Electoral Compass, on the existing boundaries Labour finish 23 seats clear of the Conservatives but without an overall majority; on the proposed new boundaries Labour and Conservatives would be more or less level in seats but there would be a Labour government as the Conservatives couldn't form one relying just on their potential allies (i.e. DUP/UUP). This is of course far too big an assumption to build on a single local government by-election . The time to revisit this will be after May's local elections when we will have a better picture across a wider area. |
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Post by jimjam on Mar 24, 2023 13:44:48 GMT
Labour never expected the next GE to be the one where they took office.
Target was taking 50-60 seats to make Tory rule unstable, worse case only around 40 (Incl other Tory losses).
Johnson clinging on longer than he ought to followed by the Truss interlude changed expectations and possibilities.
Labour would now be surprised if the Tories hold enough seats for them to stay in office and the question, therefore, becomes who will Labour have to rely on in confidence motions.
Personally I think Lab+SDLP+LD (C&S) will be enough to allow the SNP to abstain which suits both Lab and the SNP imo.
Possibly Lab+LDs can reach 322+.
Who knows, maybe an OM will occur, I certainly hope so.
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Post by mercian on Mar 24, 2023 14:06:40 GMT
@jimjam
But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 24, 2023 14:10:46 GMT
@jimjam But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems. Surely not as much as Osborne did (as I understand it he was the primary driver of the targeting of Lib Dem seats in 2015, correctly estimating they were there for the taking). |
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2023 14:22:51 GMT
@jimjam But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems. When did Wilson do that? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 24, 2023 14:24:03 GMT
In the unlikely event that that were to happen I wonder what the effect would be on Labour morale after having such high expectations? Would they have another massive reset and rebuild from scratch again? More to the point what does that say about the English electorate (large part thereof). |
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Post by graham on Mar 24, 2023 14:30:21 GMT
@jimjam But would LDs want to co-operate with them? Others might have a different perspective, but in my memory both Wilson and Blair shafted the Liberals/LibDems. Surely not as much as Osborne did (as I understand it he was the primary driver of the targeting of Lib Dem seats in 2015, correctly estimating they were there for the taking). That success came back to rather bite Osborne in that he did not really want a Brexit Referendum. If the LDs had held on to circa 20 seats - rather than 8 - in 2015, it is quite likely that would not have come to pass. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 24, 2023 14:31:42 GMT
I find this quite a funny comment on the 'efficiencies' of modern tech - /photo/1 And then, as per bardin1’s post, abandon lecture after 15 mins because it seems no one shows up these days |
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Post by hireton on Mar 24, 2023 14:33:14 GMT
Some Scottish polling by focaldatauk and an opinion piece by James Kanagasooriam (also a board member of the right wing think-tank UKOnward)
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Post by alec on Mar 24, 2023 14:34:52 GMT
Deutsche Bank shares sliding today, amid more concerns over the US banking system. The US issues appear to revolve around their second tier regional banks, with hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial property loans coming under scrutiny. There;s something like $250bn of these coming up for renewal this year, as they are on shorter credit terms than residential mortgages, and the rapid rise in rates is causing concern at defaults. The level of cash buffers held by these banks is causing concerns of further bank collapses. Credit default swaps for European banks are above 2008 levels, just off the 2013 peak, but have surged today.
This grim period we've been looping through since 2007 seems endless. Sunnier days are ahead, but my god, it's been a miserable decade and a half.
Meanwhile, in Bakhmut, some chatter that the Russian offensive has run out of steam and that the Wagner group are looking to refocus on their horror campaigns in Africa. If true, it would something of a humiliation for them. Bakhmut has been spoken of as being on the verge of capture since November. It is starting to appear that the Ukrainian strategy of holding the strategically unimportant town in order to create a killing ground for some of Russia's best units was an inspired bit of strategic genius. But we can't quite confirm that conclusion just yet.
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Post by James E on Mar 24, 2023 14:38:24 GMT
Rushden South LG by-election result Con 54.6% (+5.2) Lab 28.8% (+6.6) LD 7.1% (-6.3) Breakthrough 5.4% (new) Green 4.2% (-10.8) Turnout 19.3% Edit: Breakthough are a far left party btw All the usual caveats but interesting that Con actually increased their percentage. This has happened quite aLooking at the figure few times since we've been looking at these results. I think that it due to the way that the results are presented. Here are the figures for when the seat was last contested in May 2021. northnorthants.moderngov.co.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=23The Tories (collectively) achieved 68% of the vote then so, in my view, were down 13 points in this by election. The two Labour candidates achieved 20% between them, with the Greens taking 7% and LDs 6% - each with a single candidate. Because each of them fielded fewer than 3 candidates, I would suggest that those Lab, LD and Green candidates who did stand last time benefitted from being the 'second choice' from each others' voters. |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 24, 2023 14:41:26 GMT
In the unlikely event that that were to happen I wonder what the effect would be on Labour morale after having such high expectations? Would they have another massive reset and rebuild from scratch again? Not my party but they tried shifting to the economic 'Left' (Miliband then even further with Corbyn) and that didn't work so if, in the unlikely event, they fail by shifting to the economic 'Right' (and a bit less liberal left?) then they'll certainly be some head scratching. I appreciate jimjam is 'cautious' but given the mid-term lead of >20% and 13yrs (15yrs by the time of the GE) of CON in power then anything less than a comfortable majority would be a pretty humiliating outcome for Starmer. I'd be fairly sure CON will shift further to Right on the social axis assuming, in the more likely event, they get kicked out. Badenoch is odds-on favourite and I've commented on that before. Having CON shift further to the right on social axis would IMO reduce the risk Starmer slides back to the socially liberal left on the various woke stuff that most of gen.pub aren't interested in. |
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Post by hireton on Mar 24, 2023 14:46:14 GMT
So it looks like Starmer is veering further right to position Labour on the right wing of the Tory Party on equality issues ditching Labour's commitment to gender recognition reform:
A few points arise:
- how far will Starmer go in that direction when inevitably the amendment of the Equalities Act 2010 to reduce transgender rights ( and possibly other minority rights) becomes the next phase in the Tory culture war.
- where does this leave Labour in Scotland which supported the GRR Bill presumably taking direction from London.
- note the centralising tone of the remark that Scotland needs to reset its policy.
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