26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 22, 2023 17:18:12 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

Mar 22, 2023 16:46:32 GMT mandolinist said:

It feels like it should be a spell in the tower, but I suspect he will get away with it again.

He may well get away with it, but as the YouGov poll shows, even if he does he's most definitely been found guilty in the court of public opinion, and it seems pretty apparent that his political career is effectively over.

It's inconceivable that he could regain the leadership either before, or after, the next election, and I can't imagine him slogging away as a lowly backbench MP, it would be too much of an affront to the man's ego.

His ego should have taken quite a hit from the WF vote today. A few ERG ultras were expected so he+we saw that very few wanted to follow Boris with a protest vote, even when it was effectively a 'free' protest vote against Rishi as LAB et al (-DUP) were backing Rishi.

TBC if he ends up with a suspension-> recall petition-> by-election-> and kicked out later this year but surprisingly some punters still think Boris will be back*. Even if he gets away with just a 'slapped wrist' (and makes a formal apology) over Partygate then hard to see him winning his seat in GE'24.

As next CON leader (which could 'in theory' be before/after GE'24):
www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205526560

and/or PM after Rishi (for which Starmer is obviously favourite, so mostly an 'and' bet)
www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.205534101

Every dog has it's day and Boris had 1,139 days as PM but it is time he is put down. I'm sure he has lot of books to write, speeches to make, holidays to go on and time he can spend with his kids.

The other 'news' from the vote was that the ERG is a dog that no longer bites and can barely even manage a weak bark.

The only difference between the nutter factions in LAB's SCG and CON's ERG is that in ERG's case they were at least once "useful" idiots. 

[mercian]

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

[domjg]

Mar 22, 2023 16:57:57 GMT Rafwan said:

Mar 22, 2023 10:25:59 GMT domjg said:

It just wouldn't have been a runner and the optics would have been terrible. As others have pointed out it would have been labelled a losers coalition in a print media that would have gone bananas. It would have been perceived more widely as undemocratic and almost certainly wouldn't have lasted. Labour and the LDs would have been gravely damaged by trying it and at the subsequent election the tories would probably have won big. Just supposition of course but I don't see how Labour could have stayed in power after the 2010 election. The arithmetic may have theoretically allowed it but politically and culturally it couldn't have worked. A tory minority gvt however should have been left to fail on it's own. 

OK, but I do think this is all wrong and has no basis in fact. A majority in the Commons is NOT undemocratic. And optics and Tory press will often be made to look bad. This can and should be faced down. Whoever picks up the baton and runs with it has the momentum; and by this token, a Tory minority gov would not have failed. All respect, but I think this is based on a good old British sense of fair play. (“The other chaps did pretty well; let them have go now”.) This often is an admirable sentiment, but here it is wholly misplaced; there really is far too much at stake.

I understand where you're coming from and if you've read a few of my posts you'll know the tory party is very high on my list of things to despise. You'll also know that I don't respect regulation breaking, 'advisory', 'direct democracy' referenda. Exercises in representative democracy like general elections are however (in my opinion) the main thing we have keeping us civilised and we need to treat them with great caution and respect. Look at the damage playing fast and loose with that idea has done in the US.

I ask you this: If, at the next election the tories under Sunak get 258 seats and Labour get 307 yet Sunak somehow manages to remain in power by allying with other parties (v unlikely I know but just as an example) do you think "ok fair enough" and accept that or do you (as I would) basically go mental and scream injustice?  

As with many things in politics (and life) if you do it to them it just makes it easier for them to do it to you, or others,  further down the road. 

[neilj]

Re Sunak's tax return

So Sunak pays around 23% tax on an income and capital gains of £4,766,962.
Gives the lie to the argument by some that high earners pay 50% plus tax on their earnings
Never mind the Laffer curve someone's having a laugh at our expense
Our tax system is badly in need of reform

[mandolinist]

Mar 22, 2023 18:08:21 GMT mercian said:

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

I enjoy considering counter-factuals, it often helps to clarify the issues.

In this case I think we can be pretty certain that the Northern Ireland/Good Friday agreement could not have been negotiated. The Eu membership of the parties was critical in the negotiations and in the substance of the agreement. The "Troubles" would almost certainly still be ongoing, and terrorism within the UK would still have been more about the battle between the Republicans and the Unionists than ISIS or any other Islamic terrorist organisation.

What this illustrates I think is how problematic Brexit is in terms of the continuing peace on the Island of Ireland and just how reckless was the Brexit referendum without a plan in place to deal with these precise issues.

[domjg]

Mar 22, 2023 18:08:21 GMT mercian said:

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

That would never have happened as Ireland (now blessedly free) was totally dependent economically on the UK back then. Joining together or not was inevitable. The Ireland of 1973 was a demoralised, economically challenged, post colonial vassal. The EU has allowed Ireland to become a strong, proud, European state in it's own right that even gets one over on it's old tormentor these days.

John Humphrey's famous comment on the Today programme that Ireland should leave because the UK had was therefore particularly offensive and ignorant.

[graham]

There appear to have been over 50 Tory rebels on the WF vote given that few of the 47 who failed to vote had permission to stay away.

[Mr Poppy]

Mar 22, 2023 18:08:21 GMT mercian said:

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

Island of Cyprus (with a Northern bit not in the EU) has some similarities to your 'hypothetical' and whilst pretty nasty in the 1970-80s it has been pretty quiet on their border for a few decades now.

No situation is ever 'exact' as any present day situation is impacted by the journey it takes to get there. However, it is possible that NI would have some kind of 'Special Status' with some UK-Eire/EU agreements that effectively meant some EU law applied to some sectors in NI. Sadly my portal to parallel universes is down so I can't check.

For an easier hypothetical then how much UK tax would Rishi have paid if he'd stayed in US rather than moved back to UK?

I hear he's paid a lot of UK tax in the last few years although I expect some people (eg Starmer) would prefer he stayed in US or moved to a tax haven rather than pay over £1million in UK tax in the last 3yrs

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1145059/PM_Rishi_Sunak_Tax_Summary_.pdf

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2023 17:49:02 GMT steve said:

I remember when the rule of six applied angsting about having seven present.

I now realise it would have been fine to invite the band of the grenadier guards and the entire staff of spearmint rhino!

Thanks Spaf!

If you had the reassuringly expensive Lord Pannick KC to advise you, then like Johnson this afternoon, you could have invoked the " Pirates of the Caribbean " defence ...

[Mark]

Mar 22, 2023 18:08:21 GMT mercian said:

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

My take on that would be....

Up to mid-90's :

The troubles. No difference.

Mid-90's :

The Major government talks to the IRA.
Both sides realise that there is no military solution - No difference.

1996 :

Talks break down as the Major government makes one sided concessions to NI Unionist parties in return for votes - No difference.

1997 :

The newly elected Blair government resumes discussions. No difference.

Post 1997 :

The deal that was done in this universe cannot be done as it has, at it's basis, regulatory allignment - and alo freedom of movement between EU states.

A deal that did not give republicans what they wanted - a united Ireland - but, in terms of day to day life, a situation that effectively resembled that.

While it is possible that some kind o deal would have been done, it is much more unlikely and would have meant much greater compromise.

Most likely scenario, talks collapse and violence resumes.

[johntel]

Mar 22, 2023 18:00:48 GMT pjw1961 said:

Interesting that Sunak chose this afternoon while all attention was on Johnson to publish this:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/22/rishi-sunak-publishes-long-awaited-personal-uk-tax-returns

You certainly can't deny he pays UK tax - but imagine how wealthy you have to be to have an annual tax bill of £432,493!

Almost as wealthy as Gary Linekar, who I assume must be paying more than 750K based on his earnings. Unless he has some way of reducing it of course. 

[peterbell]

Mar 22, 2023 17:49:02 GMT steve said:

I remember when the rule of six applied angsting about having seven present.

I now realise it would have been fine to invite the band of the grenadier guards and the entire staff of spearmint rhino!

Thanks Spaf!

More than angsting.  When lockdown was relaxed to the rule of 6, six of my friends (3 couples) from the walking club started going fell walking again.  Week after week I was invited but turned them down as I would have been a seventh member.  I only joined them for 1 week when one of the couples dropped out due to injury.  Failure to join them was upsetting to say the least,  we were in the open air, travelling in separate cars but I obeyed the rules/guidance, whatever you wish to call it.

I suspect that Johnson will get off without any punishment or at worst a 5 day suspension.  Having said that I agree with some earlier comments that regardless he is finished, certainly as an MP.  Unless Lab screw up badly then he will loose Uxbridge due to the combined effect of voters turning against the Tories, plus disgust at his behaviour both re partygate and all the other lies.

[pjw1961]

Mar 22, 2023 21:35:51 GMT johntel said:

Mar 22, 2023 18:00:48 GMT pjw1961 said:

Interesting that Sunak chose this afternoon while all attention was on Johnson to publish this:

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/22/rishi-sunak-publishes-long-awaited-personal-uk-tax-returns

You certainly can't deny he pays UK tax - but imagine how wealthy you have to be to have an annual tax bill of £432,493!

Almost as wealthy as Gary Linekar, who I assume must be paying more than 750K based on his earnings. Unless he has some way of reducing it of course. 

You are joking I assume in comparing Sunak and Lineker. Sunak is worth £730m, twice as wealthy than King Charles (Sunday Times rich list). Lineker is thought to be worth a bit less than £30m.

[johntel]

Mar 22, 2023 21:52:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

Mar 22, 2023 21:35:51 GMT johntel said:

Almost as wealthy as Gary Linekar, who I assume must be paying more than 750K based on his earnings. Unless he has some way of reducing it of course. 

You are joking I assume in comparing Sunak and Lineker. Sunak is worth £730m, twice as wealthy than King Charles (Sunday Times rich list). Lineker is thought to be worth a bit less than £30m.

Yes, tongue in cheek, but as you know your tax bill is based on your earnings, not your assets. 

[mercian]

Mar 22, 2023 21:43:44 GMT peterbell said:

Mar 22, 2023 17:49:02 GMT steve said:

I remember when the rule of six applied angsting about having seven present.

I now realise it would have been fine to invite the band of the grenadier guards and the entire staff of spearmint rhino!

Thanks Spaf!

More than angsting.  When lockdown was relaxed to the rule of 6, six of my friends (3 couples) from the walking club started going fell walking again.  Week after week I was invited but turned them down as I would have been a seventh member.  I only joined them for 1 week when one of the couples dropped out due to injury.  Failure to join them was upsetting to say the least,  we were in the open air, travelling in separate cars but I obeyed the rules/guidance, whatever you wish to call it.

I suspect that Johnson will get off without any punishment or at worst a 5 day suspension.  Having said that I agree with some earlier comments that regardless he is finished, certainly as an MP.  Unless Lab screw up badly then he will loose Uxbridge due to the combined effect of voters turning against the Tories, plus disgust at his behaviour both re partygate and all the other lies.

This isn't making a comment on the Johnson case directly, but I found the rules very confusing after a while. People talk as though there was one set of rules in place for the whole period. In fact they seemed to change every week - it seemed like daily sometimes! In the end I gave up listening and just tried to use sensible precautions such as washing hands after coming home, wearing a mask for a while, not kissing strangers 🤩 and so on.  Are any national rules still in place? I don't remember the 'All clear' being sounded. A lot of shops still have their plastic shields and sometimes the staff wear masks but I imagine those are prescribed by the company.  

[steamdrivenandy]

Mar 22, 2023 22:18:33 GMT mercian said:

Mar 22, 2023 21:43:44 GMT peterbell said:

More than angsting.  When lockdown was relaxed to the rule of 6, six of my friends (3 couples) from the walking club started going fell walking again.  Week after week I was invited but turned them down as I would have been a seventh member.  I only joined them for 1 week when one of the couples dropped out due to injury.  Failure to join them was upsetting to say the least,  we were in the open air, travelling in separate cars but I obeyed the rules/guidance, whatever you wish to call it.

I suspect that Johnson will get off without any punishment or at worst a 5 day suspension.  Having said that I agree with some earlier comments that regardless he is finished, certainly as an MP.  Unless Lab screw up badly then he will loose Uxbridge due to the combined effect of voters turning against the Tories, plus disgust at his behaviour both re partygate and all the other lies.

This isn't making a comment on the Johnson case directly, but I found the rules very confusing after a while. People talk as though there was one set of rules in place for the whole period. In fact they seemed to change every week - it seemed like daily sometimes! In the end I gave up listening and just tried to use sensible precautions such as washing hands after coming home, wearing a mask for a while, not kissing strangers 🤩 and so on.  Are any national rules still in place? I don't remember the 'All clear' being sounded. A lot of shops still have their plastic shields and sometimes the staff wear masks but I imagine those are prescribed by the company.  

I was in an Aldi on Monday and the till I was served at had no plastic screen but nearly all the others still had the screen fitted. Maybe the missing screen had been broken, removed and not replaced. There again you'd think that Aldi management would make staff only use a screenless checkout as a last resort but there were five with screens that were without a checkout operator. 

[steamdrivenandy]

Mar 22, 2023 22:18:33 GMT mercian said:

Mar 22, 2023 21:43:44 GMT peterbell said:

More than angsting.  When lockdown was relaxed to the rule of 6, six of my friends (3 couples) from the walking club started going fell walking again.  Week after week I was invited but turned them down as I would have been a seventh member.  I only joined them for 1 week when one of the couples dropped out due to injury.  Failure to join them was upsetting to say the least,  we were in the open air, travelling in separate cars but I obeyed the rules/guidance, whatever you wish to call it.

I suspect that Johnson will get off without any punishment or at worst a 5 day suspension.  Having said that I agree with some earlier comments that regardless he is finished, certainly as an MP.  Unless Lab screw up badly then he will loose Uxbridge due to the combined effect of voters turning against the Tories, plus disgust at his behaviour both re partygate and all the other lies.

This isn't making a comment on the Johnson case directly, but I found the rules very confusing after a while. People talk as though there was one set of rules in place for the whole period. In fact they seemed to change every week - it seemed like daily sometimes! In the end I gave up listening and just tried to use sensible precautions such as washing hands after coming home, wearing a mask for a while, not kissing strangers 🤩 and so on.  Are any national rules still in place? I don't remember the 'All clear' being sounded. A lot of shops still have their plastic shields and sometimes the staff wear masks but I imagine those are prescribed by the company.  

I agree that after a while the rules seemed to become a blur, but Johnson was agreeing them, announcing them and promoting them. So either he didn't understand what he was agreeing and/or saying or he thought they didn't apply to him. Neither of those options are a defensible position for a PM.

[mercian]

steamdrivenandy
Perhaps they're just still there from inertia? It's not worth the time and effort to remove them, so they'll just gradually disappear as they get damaged. In 50 years time we might have an investigative documentary about why just a few checkouts have plastic screens and some journalist will win a prize for working out why!

[mercian]

Mar 22, 2023 22:30:50 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Mar 22, 2023 22:18:33 GMT mercian said:

This isn't making a comment on the Johnson case directly, but I found the rules very confusing after a while. People talk as though there was one set of rules in place for the whole period. In fact they seemed to change every week - it seemed like daily sometimes! In the end I gave up listening and just tried to use sensible precautions such as washing hands after coming home, wearing a mask for a while, not kissing strangers 🤩 and so on.  Are any national rules still in place? I don't remember the 'All clear' being sounded. A lot of shops still have their plastic shields and sometimes the staff wear masks but I imagine those are prescribed by the company.  

I agree that after a while the rules seemed to become a blur, but Johnson was agreeing them, announcing them and promoting them. So either he didn't understand what he was agreeing and/or saying or he thought they didn't apply to him. Neither of those options are a defensible position for a PM.

If it's true that they were having these regular jollies at the time when only 2 or 6 people could attend a funeral it's very bad and Johnson should have seen that. Also though, I don't suppose he personally organised them and if he didn't then heads should roll in the Civil Service too.

 I find it ironic that Trump and Johnson were so similar in some ways and are being brought down at the same time. They both have silly hair, are not traditional politician types but have the ability the enthuse a lot of voters.  It points up the difference between the USA and us that Trump is being pursued for fomenting armed insurrection amongst other things, whereas Johnson is brought down by going to a party and being economical with the truth.  😃

[domjg]

Mar 22, 2023 21:28:05 GMT Mark said:

Mar 22, 2023 18:08:21 GMT mercian said:

Here's a thought that occurred to me today:
Let's imagine a hypothetical world where the UK never joined the EU, but Eire did. This would have led to the exact situation we now have. Would it have been conceivable that the UK would have allowed EU law to be applied in Northern Ireland?
In practice I think either Eire would not have been allowed to join, because of the Common Travel Area etc, or there would have had to be some kinds of customs checks on the Irish border.
Thoughts? And I'm not trying to score any political points, just interested in what people think.

My take on that would be....

Up to mid-90's :

The troubles. No difference.

Mid-90's :

The Major government talks to the IRA.
Both sides realise that there is no military solution - No difference.

1996 :

Talks break down as the Major government makes one sided concessions to NI Unionist parties in return for votes - No difference.

1997 :

The newly elected Blair government resumes discussions. No difference.

Post 1997 :

The deal that was done in this universe cannot be done as it has, at it's basis, regulatory allignment - and alo freedom of movement between EU states.

A deal that did not give republicans what they wanted - a united Ireland - but, in terms of day to day life, a situation that effectively resembled that.

While it is possible that some kind o deal would have been done, it is much more unlikely and would have meant much greater compromise.

Most likely scenario, talks collapse and violence resumes.

A lot of people didn't seem to appreciate that the key thing that the GFA afforded was the ability to live in a virtual united Ireland for those who wanted it. Brexit inevitably put that at risk.

[pjw1961]

Mar 22, 2023 22:03:46 GMT johntel said:

Mar 22, 2023 21:52:51 GMT pjw1961 said:

You are joking I assume in comparing Sunak and Lineker. Sunak is worth £730m, twice as wealthy than King Charles (Sunday Times rich list). Lineker is thought to be worth a bit less than £30m.

Yes, tongue in cheek, but as you know your tax bill is based on your earnings, not your assets. 

Something I would very much like to see changed; some form of wealth tax is long overdue (it would need some allowance for those who are on paper asset rich from a single house they live in but are otherwise cash poor, but this is not beyond the wit of man to devise). 

[pjw1961]

Mar 22, 2023 22:18:33 GMT mercian said:

Mar 22, 2023 21:43:44 GMT peterbell said:

This isn't making a comment on the Johnson case directly, but I found the rules very confusing after a while. People talk as though there was one set of rules in place for the whole period. In fact they seemed to change every week - it seemed like daily sometimes! In the end I gave up listening and just tried to use sensible precautions such as washing hands after coming home, wearing a mask for a while, not kissing strangers 🤩 and so on.  Are any national rules still in place? I don't remember the 'All clear' being sounded. A lot of shops still have their plastic shields and sometimes the staff wear masks but I imagine those are prescribed by the company.  

The government lifted the Covid restrictions in stages which might be the confusion, but the last went on 24/02/22. (Edit - In England. Can't speak for other polities!)
www.gov.uk/government/news/public-reminded-to-stay-safe-as-covid-19-england-restrictions-lift

Individuals, businesses, etc. are of course still free to continue to do whatever they think is sensible. 

I was never affected by the national rules anyway, as NHS organisations had - and still have - their own rules tailored to the needs of the organisation. Driving round totally empty roads in the first lock down was both surreal and rather enjoyable. I once drove from Braintree to Chelmsford to go to work and saw one car - and that was going the other way - and my usual 35-40 journey to work took me 17 minutes. However, I can assure you that at work there were no parties, no leaving do's and no booze!

[steve]

Daily question from yougov
Is Spaffer Honest or Dishonest

Honest 13%
Dishonest 72%

What are the 13% on?

[mercian]

Mar 22, 2023 22:54:27 GMT pjw1961 said:

Mar 22, 2023 22:03:46 GMT johntel said:

Yes, tongue in cheek, but as you know your tax bill is based on your earnings, not your assets. 

Something I would very much like to see changed; some form of wealth tax is long overdue (it would need some allowance for those who are on paper asset rich from a single house they live in but are otherwise cash poor, but this is not beyond the wit of man to devise). 

I agree so long as the point at which it starts is somewhat above my non-property wealth, which I suspect would be most people's position. 🤩

[steve]

/photo/1


Were they watching the same hearing?

[steve]

Found the cat

/photo/1

[mercian]

Just one local by-election tomorrow - North Northamptonshire, Rushden South. It would be a major surprise if Tories lost. In 2021 3 councillors were elected, all Tories. The lowest polled about twice the best Labour vote. They don't count until Friday.

[superted]

Peston had an Opinium poll with a lab lead of 12 with Sunak as leader but 11 with Johnson as leader. Not sure of exact questions but may not be 100% directly comparable to standard Lab/Con question if they specified the leader more than they would do in a normal poll.

[oldnat]

Mar 22, 2023 23:58:16 GMT superted said:

Peston had an Opinium poll with a lab lead of 12 with Sunak as leader but 11 with Johnson as leader. Not sure of exact questions but may not be 100% directly comparable to standard Lab/Con question if they specified the leader more than they would do in a normal poll.

Without seeing the details of the poll, that apparent difference looks to be fairly meaningless. Did a few more Tory voters move from DK to Con if Johnson were their leader and shift the rounded %s from X+O.49 to X+0.51 and vice versa?

[oldnat]

This does seem an appropriate response to Johnson's weaselly excuses