26-Nov 2022 : LAB: 50% / CON: 27% / LDEM: 9% / GRN: 4%

[alec]

I think it's also going to matter what happens with the EU Retain Laws Bill. If that goes through as currently planned, it's going to be a shit show. The Times is reporting today that the government knows this, but following the 'Swiss style' fiasco last week feels it can't do anything.

I think it's quite likely that by the time we get to the next election the whole Brexit legislative agenda will be widely discredited, with a whole host of opportunities open for a new government to reinstate and strengthen many EU facing regulations with widespread public support.

[crossbat11]

nickp at 6.50am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"I expect Iran to draw with Wales and England to beat USA which would leave Wales needing to beat England reserves in the last game."

crossbat11 in response at 8.32am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"Expectations unlikely to be realised. Iran to beat Wales and England to draw with the US. England to beat Wales, and US to beat Iran. England and US to qualify."

I'm on for the full house. UKPR2's top football pundit in action.

[Mr Poppy]

Nov 27, 2022 10:25:31 GMT colin said:

...and Sturgeon in a "cul-de-sac" :-

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/what-next-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-snp-first-minister-k890qx55q

Starmer must be a happy man. !

Still a bit unclear on this quote policy issue that has enraged some folks so I hope you don't mind my 'precis' to one specific point.

Whilst I would agree that Sturgeon's single issue policy of 'Defacto IndyRef2' for GE'24 was a short-term (GE'24-H'26/GE'29) "cul-de-sac", that left an open goal for SLAB to claim the 'maybe-later' marginal ground and for Sir Keir to be in total control of timing for IndyRef2/Clarity Acts; then Sir Keir has just built Sturgeon an exit ramp from that "cul-de-sac" 

Indy VI is roughly 50/50 but on Brexit then Scotland is very Pro-Remain/Rejoin[1] and they also still think it's a fairly important issue[2]

1/ 83% (net 70%) think Brexit is going badly and 'in hindsight' (which apparently tracks 'Rejoin' fairly close) then 71% (net 48%) think UK was "wrong to leave". Highest for all regions in UK (tied on net % of "wrong" with London)
docs.cdn.yougov.com/c74jt8gmvo/TheTimes_VI_AdHoc_221116_W.pdf

2/ 24% and 4th place in YG's 'most important tracker'. Highest % for any region in the regional x-breaks
yougov.co.uk/topics/education/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country

Also a key part of SNP's approach (IMO) is that CON and LAB are basically the same WRT to the way they treat Scotland. Now IMO Sir Keir+Rachel are very close to 'continuity Rishi' on most policy areas (but a bit Greener and without the suicidal factional issue that is stopping Rishi getting stuff done) but Sir Keir doesn't need to go around writing in the Sunday Press that is 'kissing Tories' (last week) and 'more Brexity than CON' (this week) as that allows Sturgeon to highlight that there will be no difference between a CON HMG and a LAB HMG.

Sir Keir should IMO have stayed in the 'vague' for both Indy and Brexit. CON MPs are quite capable of committing suicide all by themselves and SNP had handed control to Sir Keir. By trying to outflank CON on the Leave side then he'll have outraged his base (London) and damaged his chances of turning Scotland back to LAB.

Whilst Scotland will drop to 50 MPs at some point then I would expect LAB want Scotland 'calmed down' and back under the Red (+white+blue) flag of LAB (and UK). Instead Sir Keir has just built Sturgeon an 'exit ramp' and given her a much stronger case for saying a LAB HMG will be continuity CON HMG (both of them now being the 'new model' Brexit type)

 

[pjw1961]

Nov 27, 2022 10:16:33 GMT domjg said:

@those wanting an independent Scotland.

I know that an important part of your strategy is trying to make the point that all governance options for England are terrible. Well we don't have the SNP to fall back on (and the jury it seems is definitely out on whether they represent good governance, despite the Liberal mood music).

Labour are the only game in town for us.
Very much looking forward to when you achieve your goal and can maybe stop crowing about how terrible you think our options are and undermining Labour at every opportunity.

Expecting a wordy, patronising response.

We all know there is a reason why the SNP do that. The SNP ideal is a Conservative UK government primarily elected in England and SNP dominance in Scotland - the perfect contrast and the perfect breeding ground for grievances, with independence proposed as the solution. Hence why the SNP were so keen to support Boris Johnson in getting a GE in 2019 (along with the dim-witted fantasist Jo Swinson who seemed to think she was going to be Prime Minister) - a hard brexit for the whole UK was a small price to pay for advancing the cause of Scottish independence.

Since it appears the Conservatives are likely to lose the next GE it is time from an SNP perspective to ramp up plan B, which is to maintain that not just Labour but the Liberal Democrats as well are identical to the Conservatives. This is necessary to keep support for independence up.  Bit cynical perhaps but makes strategic sense, so good politics. Of course it doesn't help that Starmer is determined to give them plenty of ammunition. 

Bottom line is we need proportional representation so a greater variety of parties can get elected. 

[steve]

"Maybe, in the same way that you're currently saying you'll 'lend your vote to Labour at the next GE' to get the Tories out, Starmer is currently 'lending' his support to make Brexit work, to get the Tories out."

On balance this is probably the intent but polling suggests it's misplaced and unnecessary.

[Deleted]

Nov 27, 2022 10:46:08 GMT alec said:

Not sure there is anyone sensible who imagines that in 5 or 10 years time we'll have arrangements with the EU that look anything like the TCA, 

Not sure there is anyone sensible who imagines that in 5 or 10 years time :-

The balance of economic power , and EU's place in it will be unchanged :-


www.visualcapitalist.com/shifting-global-economic-power/


www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD


or that the EU itself will be unchanged in the face of mass unregulated immigration :-


carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/88486


www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/tackling-immigration-and-improving-foreign-policy-petr-fiala-features-in-visegrad-group-summit


or that the EU hasn't already recognised that permanent waiting rooms for candidate countries are unsustainable :-


blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/10/17/the-uk-has-been-given-an-opportunity-to-help-shape-the-future-of-the-european-political-community-it-should-take-it/


or that UK will not influence European affairs via new relationships :-

www.politico.eu/article/the-uk-is-starting-to-get-real-about-europe/


.....or that it will still be relevant to be living in a past ,clinging to the prospect of membership of a grouping which itself has moved on and changed .


I think Starmer is as capable of seeing this , as Sunak is.

[Deleted]

Nov 27, 2022 11:10:05 GMT crossbat11 said:

nickp at 6.50am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"I expect Iran to draw with Wales and England to beat USA which would leave Wales needing to beat England reserves in the last game."

crossbat11 in response at 8.32am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"Expectations unlikely to be realised. Iran to beat Wales and England to draw with the US. England to beat Wales, and US to beat Iran. England and US to qualify."

I'm on for the full house. UKPR2's top football pundit in action.

I can't see Iran losing to USA- it will all hands to the pump 

[Mr Poppy]

No new Scottish polling? The date of the SC decision was well known so I would have expected some pollsters to have conducted fieldwork for new polling out in time for the weekend press (for Scottish Sunday papers at least).

I've checked 'ballot box', 'wings' and even likes of Panelbase direct but can't see any fresh polling. Ipsos biannual polling will hopefully be post SC verdict but they always seem a bit slow on publication. 

On my, admittedly brief, search I did discover the other big fish of Scottish politics is trying to make peace with SNP* and "urged pro-independence parties to stand single-issue candidates at the next general election" (to which I would infer he means SNP should not contest the two Alba MP seats)?

That is a very risky approach IMO. Most Indy folks prefer SNP to Alba, even allowing for the dominant incumbency of SNP, so I very much doubt SNP will not compete for the two Alba seats.

Salmond is no fool so I'm guessing Salmond is ready with the "betrayal" narrative if SNP fight other pro-Indy parties or move away from the Sturgeon "cul-de-sac" of SNP being anything other than a "single issue" (defacto IndyRef2) party. Note the similarity to Farage back in the day but with the notable exception that we Got Brexit Done but Indy hasn't (yet) happened). 

* OK maybe not given he goes to say: "the decision to refer a draft bill to the Supreme Court for clarification on its legality as “the charge of the light brigade”."

news.stv.tv/politics/alex-salmond-calls-for-snp-greens-and-alba-to-unite-for-independence-at-next-general-election

[domjg]

Nov 27, 2022 11:35:41 GMT pjw1961 said:

Nov 27, 2022 10:16:33 GMT domjg said:

@those wanting an independent Scotland.

I know that an important part of your strategy is trying to make the point that all governance options for England are terrible. Well we don't have the SNP to fall back on (and the jury it seems is definitely out on whether they represent good governance, despite the Liberal mood music).

Labour are the only game in town for us.
Very much looking forward to when you achieve your goal and can maybe stop crowing about how terrible you think our options are and undermining Labour at every opportunity.

Expecting a wordy, patronising response.

We all know there is a reason why the SNP do that. The SNP ideal is a Conservative UK government primarily elected in England and SNP dominance in Scotland - the perfect contrast and the perfect breeding ground for grievances, with independence proposed as the solution. Hence why the SNP were so keen to support Boris Johnson in getting a GE in 2019 (along with the dim-witted fantasist Jo Swinson who seemed to think she was going to be Prime Minister) - a hard brexit for the whole UK was a small price to pay for advancing the cause of Scottish independence.

Since it appears the Conservatives are likely to lose the next GE it is time from an SNP perspective to ramp up plan B, which is to maintain that not just Labour but the Liberal Democrats as well are identical to the Conservatives. This is necessary to keep support for independence up.  Bit cynical perhaps but makes strategic sense, so good politics. Of course it doesn't help that Starmer is determined to give them plenty of ammunition. 

Bottom line is we need proportional representation so a greater variety of parties can get elected. 

You're undoubtedly right but I don't know who they're trying to convince on here. I may be mistaken but it seems to me that all Scottish contributors are already independence supporters.

It sometimes grates a bit that for a UK wide discussion site that some here will shoehorn anything and everything into the topic of Scottish independence even for someone like me who is sympathetic to their aims and to Scotland more generally.

[alec]

Err...colin - what's all that got to do with the price of fish?

The EU keeps changing! Like, Doh!.

Of course everything keeps changing. Of course there are pressures on the EU. Of course the UK will get back closer to the economic superpower on it's doorstep and strengthen the TCA significantly, even if the relative global position of the EU is weakening.

[johntel]

Nov 27, 2022 11:10:05 GMT crossbat11 said:

nickp at 6.50am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"I expect Iran to draw with Wales and England to beat USA which would leave Wales needing to beat England reserves in the last game."

crossbat11 in response at 8.32am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"Expectations unlikely to be realised. Iran to beat Wales and England to draw with the US. England to beat Wales, and US to beat Iran. England and US to qualify."

I'm on for the full house. UKPR2's top football pundit in action.

Possibly Forest Reserves will give England a tougher game than you think  , though I doubt it. But the USA-Iran game should be a cracker. 

[Mr Poppy]

Nov 27, 2022 11:46:16 GMT colin said:

Nov 27, 2022 10:46:08 GMT alec said:

Not sure there is anyone sensible who imagines that in 5 or 10 years time we'll have arrangements with the EU that look anything like the TCA, 

Not sure there is anyone sensible who imagines that in 5 or 10 years time :-

The balance of economic power , and EU's place in it will be unchanged :-


www.visualcapitalist.com/shifting-global-economic-power/


www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD


or that the EU itself will be unchanged in the face of mass unregulated immigration :-


carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/88486


www.expats.cz/czech-news/article/tackling-immigration-and-improving-foreign-policy-petr-fiala-features-in-visegrad-group-summit


or that the EU hasn't already recognised that permanent waiting rooms for candidate countries are unsustainable :-


blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/10/17/the-uk-has-been-given-an-opportunity-to-help-shape-the-future-of-the-european-political-community-it-should-take-it/


or that UK will not influence European affairs via new relationships :-

www.politico.eu/article/the-uk-is-starting-to-get-real-about-europe/


.....or that it will still be relevant to be living in a past ,clinging to the prospect of membership of a grouping which itself has moved on and changed .


I think Starmer is as capable of seeing this , as Sunak is.

Thank you for, as always, posting a lot of info. I would note that one David Henig thinks EC-EU will agree to 'Swiss-style' mini-deals to bolt-on to the TCA*. Seems a sensible chap to me (although quite clearly Brussels biased IMO and would be aware EC-EU have already offered 'Swiss-style' deal for agri-food sector in order to end the 'sausage war' and save face given we're just ignoring the EC and ECJ "infringements" anyway). 

I thought Sir Keir would go for 'alignment' on agri-food to solve NIP issue**. CON HMG are still pushing for 'MRA+Equivalence' (which would then have to be extended to whole of UK, unless EC-EU want to make the whole 'Island of Ireland' a special case). That is a minor technical issue for one sector. No 'scrapping' of the TCA (a point Henig mentions), just minor 'evolution' of UK-EU relationship, tying off some loose ends created by Frosty's "frontstop" and taking advantage of the new Entente.

* See previous comments or the Issue Specific thread but Henig is quoted (accurately) in this Torygraph piece:
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/11/21/what-swiss-style-deal-eu-could-happen/

** See "Labour would eliminate most border checks created by the Tory Brexit deal. With a new veterinary agreement for agri-products between the UK and EU." (which could be agreed by UK HMG accepting EC-EU's current offer (Swiss-style on agri-food) or by pushing EC-EU to accept MRA+E deal and gifting Biden and EC-EU the chance to do some grandstanding into the 25th anniversary of NI peace agreement***)
labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-sets-out-labours-5-point-plan-to-make-brexit-work/

*** www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/nov/16/ni-deal-will-be-sorted-by-good-friday-anniversary-sunak-promises-biden

[steve]

colin
There is no " mass unregulated immigration " into the European union.
Like most anti free movement right wingers you are equating asylum seekers and refugees with economic migration.

Economic migrants arrive by conventional means register to live, have visas where necessary and are regulated in their numbers by whatever policy the individual European union member state has towards the arrival of third party nationals, this would happen irrespective of European union membership.

Refugees and asylum seekers are seeking safe haven , quite often to a country where they have some connections already.
Their presence is driven by the circumstances they face in their country of origin,out with of the European union. Again this would happen irrespective of European union membership.
Their are no European union citizens as far as I am aware seeking refugee status in other European union countries or for that matter the U.K.

[neilj]

This is both popular and necessary, contrasts well with the tories looking to put the brakes on planning for new homes to appease some if their nimby back benchers

[pjw1961]

Nov 27, 2022 12:00:44 GMT domjg said:

Nov 27, 2022 11:35:41 GMT pjw1961 said:

We all know there is a reason why the SNP do that. The SNP ideal is a Conservative UK government primarily elected in England and SNP dominance in Scotland - the perfect contrast and the perfect breeding ground for grievances, with independence proposed as the solution. Hence why the SNP were so keen to support Boris Johnson in getting a GE in 2019 (along with the dim-witted fantasist Jo Swinson who seemed to think she was going to be Prime Minister) - a hard brexit for the whole UK was a small price to pay for advancing the cause of Scottish independence.

Since it appears the Conservatives are likely to lose the next GE it is time from an SNP perspective to ramp up plan B, which is to maintain that not just Labour but the Liberal Democrats as well are identical to the Conservatives. This is necessary to keep support for independence up.  Bit cynical perhaps but makes strategic sense, so good politics. Of course it doesn't help that Starmer is determined to give them plenty of ammunition. 

Bottom line is we need proportional representation so a greater variety of parties can get elected. 

You're undoubtedly right but I don't know who they're trying to convince on here. I may be mistaken but it seems to me that all Scottish contributors are already independence supporters.

It sometimes grates a bit that for a UK wide discussion site that some here will shoehorn anything and everything into the topic of Scottish independence even for someone like me who is sympathetic to their aims and to Scotland more generally.

I was musing on the SNP's tactics rather than our resident cyber-nats, but they are certainly 'on-message' with this one. I agree it is a little pointless on here, especially as they are very capable of posting interesting stuff on other topics. 

[Danny]

Nov 27, 2022 9:49:09 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Anent Farage

I'm trying to fathom Farage's motivation in hints that he might emerge from the swirling mists of the past like something in a dreadful Christmas panto.
Is it just a poke to try and remind the Tories that if they depart from his mantra, he'll make things even worse for them, or does he really want to use the opportunity to destroy the Tory Party and think that his party can become the main ROC champion.

Brexit was always and obviously harmful to the UK. There are really only two reasons for wanting it (actual valid reasons rather than made up ones which could never come about). One is to do as much harm to the Uk as possible. The other is to use the cause of Brexit to achieve some other gain. The conservative party used it to get 14 years in government. For them it was a pretty good deal. Farage hasn't done badly, if fame and I suspect income was his goal.

If anyone thinks Brexit has some genuine benefits for Britain, I'd love them to explain what they are?

[alec]

Mr Poppy - "I would note that one David Henig thinks EC-EU will agree to 'Swiss-style' mini-deals to bolt-on to the TCA*"

This again is a classic Trevism. You are claiming a 'Swiss style' series of a main trade treaty plus 120 other bilateral agreements as 'the TCA with a few very minor tweaks'. That's obviously complete bollocks. The vast range of Swiss/EU agreements is miles away from the bare bones TCA, but to save face, yo have to pretend that there is some kind of connection.

To the rest of the world, outwith yourself and the ERG, it's obvious that the TCA is going to be left behind in the years ahead, because it is a defective, weak agreement that is not in the UK's best interest. Even 'Ready for Rishi' Sunak knows this, and his only calculation is how to circumvent the ERG nutters to get there.

It's also worth bearing in mind that the EU doesn't like the Swiss arrangements. It was one of their first trade deals, and over time, as the EU became more powerful and more experienced, they were able to extract better terms than they negotiated with Switzerland, and they won't be repeating the same mistakes with the UK. For every bolt on agreement we get to alter the TCA, we'll have to sign up to something. We'll probably end up paying into EU structural budgets, just like the Swiss.

That was always the end point of the TCA, and you can continue to pretend it's the same as the TCA if you like, if that makes you feel better, but everyone else is capable of seeing the truth.

[Mr Poppy]

New Lord Ashcroft piece. Nothing that new but there is a section that suggest some of the CON'19 DKs (and loosely attached CON'19->LAB VI) could be persuaded to vote CON in GE'24. Upside looks limited and I'll restate my view that the 'best' Rishi can realistically hope for is 200ish CON seats in GE'24 (and if they don't sort their infighting out then quite likely a lot less than that)

They Think It’s All Over – Can The Tories Turn It Round?

lordashcroftpolls.com/2022/11/16852/

[steamdrivenandy]

Nov 27, 2022 11:40:09 GMT steve said:

"Maybe, in the same way that you're currently saying you'll 'lend your vote to Labour at the next GE' to get the Tories out, Starmer is currently 'lending' his support to make Brexit work, to get the Tories out."

On balance this is probably the intent but polling suggests it's misplaced and unnecessary.

I'm wondering if the Labour back room stats/policy wonks are trying to play it 'safe' and have decided not to adapt to the seeming landslide they've been presented with, presumably just in case the Tories do have a revival nearer 2024. The Brexit rhetoric will have been crafted based on the situation months, if not years, ago to try and entice the Red Wall back. Maybe they see it as insurance, maybe as an additional knife in the back of the Tories, maybe both. I suspect they're also hoping now, that the 20% plus margin stays, or increases and their rejoiner cohort stay with Labour because they're the only party with a chance of kicking the Tories out.

[Deleted]

Nov 27, 2022 12:11:01 GMT steve said:

colin
There is no " mass unregulated immigration " into the European union.

They have a different opinion:-

www.europol.europa.eu/crime-areas-and-statistics/crime-areas/facilitation-of-illegal-immigration

www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/situation-of-illegal-migration-in-eu-worsens-40300-entered-the-bloc-in-first-quarter-of-2022/

frontex.europa.eu/media-centre/news/news-release/eu-external-borders-in-october-number-of-irregular-entries-on-the-rise-7CiZBL


www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021/09/13/inefficient-eu-system-for-deporting-migrants-encourages-illegal-migration-audit-says

[crossbat11]

Nov 27, 2022 11:53:10 GMT nickp said:

Nov 27, 2022 11:10:05 GMT crossbat11 said:

nickp at 6.50am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"I expect Iran to draw with Wales and England to beat USA which would leave Wales needing to beat England reserves in the last game."

crossbat11 in response at 8.32am on Tuesday, 22nd November

"Expectations unlikely to be realised. Iran to beat Wales and England to draw with the US. England to beat Wales, and US to beat Iran. England and US to qualify."

I'm on for the full house. UKPR2's top football pundit in action.

I can't see Iran losing to USA- it will all hands to the pump 

Interesting, but you'll forgive me, after your previous "expectations", if I don't have much confidence.

I'm going for my full house instead!

[Deleted]

Wow!


www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63771109


....and the UN wakes up to Iran :-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-63746201

[johntel]

Nov 27, 2022 12:20:50 GMT neilj said:

This is both popular and necessary, contrasts well with the tories looking to put the brakes on planning for new homes to appease some if their nimby back benchers

Of course it is. But did she say how she's planning to pay for it?

[neilj]

Nov 27, 2022 13:42:16 GMT johntel said:

Nov 27, 2022 12:20:50 GMT neilj said:

This is both popular and necessary, contrasts well with the tories looking to put the brakes on planning for new homes to appease some if their nimby back benchers

Of course it is. But did she say how she's planning to pay for it?

Social house building could pay for itself as will private house building, it's the planning consent and the determination to do it that has been missing

[hireton]

alec, crossbat11 and others

So if Labour's public stance on Brexit and immigration are spin concealing other intentions should we also assume Labour's briefings on constitutional reform and devolution are also spin without intent?

[johntel]

Anyone else a fan of Sabine Hossenfelder? I've only just discovered her. A super-intelligent German lady with a droll sense of humour who can explain the most complex subjects in a way that makes you think you understand. 

For anyone bored of the footy and interested in science on this wet Sunday I strongly recommend her blog backreaction.blogspot.com/

I'd love to hear her thoughts on polling methodology. And Brexit  .

[johntel]

Nov 27, 2022 13:48:24 GMT neilj said:

Nov 27, 2022 13:42:16 GMT johntel said:

Of course it is. But did she say how she's planning to pay for it?

Social house building could pay for itself as will private house building, it's the planning consent and the determination to do it that has been missing

Oh, easy peasy then. 

[johntel]

Nov 27, 2022 13:56:25 GMT hireton said:

alec , crossbat11 and others

So if Labour's public stance on Brexit and immigration are spin concealing other intentions should we also assume Labour's briefings on constitutional reform and devolution are also spin without intent?

Presumably it will have to be written into the manifesto before the election, and then it becomes a commitment?

[Mr Poppy]

Looks like the Eco-idiots* known as 'Just Stop Oil' are going to gift Rishi an excuse for 'Operation Get Tough' (not a flattering picture, but then Rishi is a lightweight   )

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-pushover-prime-minister-uk-xmk0b0mlm

He also has the chance to copy Boris, NRG's Jake Berry and Gove(? not sure if he was against in the past?) and 'evolve' his view on Onshore Wind Farms and prevent an embarrassing U-turn there. 

www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/27/former-tory-chair-joins-rebellion-over-sunaks-onshore-windfarm-ban

* It's their stupid tactics that are the issue. Gen.pub are not going to be happy about the latest cunning plan "to 'march as slowly as possible' around vital roundabouts from tomorrow until Christmas". Totally undermining public support in their cause and gifting Rishi an excuse to shift the 'press' onto an area where he can 'look tough' (or at least not appear so weak)
www.lbc.co.uk/news/just-stop-oil-plan-to-march-as-slowly-as-possible-around-vital-roundabouts-from/

 

[jib]

Regarding the debate around the EU and future relationship.

As much as some on here want to keep the rejoin flag flying, of course that is their democratic right and choices are available. A polar opposite  to UKIP may even come along.

Nevertheless the decision to leave the EU was made democratically in 2016, reiterated in 2017 when both main parties supported it and again in 2019 when the Tories promised to "Get Brexit Done" and the Labour Party promised to negotiate a better deal and subject it to a confirmatory referendum. The decision is made, we have left.

With regards future relationship, it is quite clear that the Johnson deal was always light on detail and heavy on the hard sell. It is a half baked mess.

There are two future routes that I see:
(1) "Swiss" or "Norwegian" mini deals that bring further alignment with the Single Market through common standards and equivalance,
(2) Singapore "go it alone" deregulation.

I feel Option 2 was floated by the ill fated Kwarteng and Truss, and promptly sunk as it lacked any credibility unless you'd had a heavy dose of hubris.

We are clearly left with Option 1 and this was always the option that I believed we would  end up following. A Labour Government in 18 months' time will clearly be very welcome to develop the Swiss & Norwegian model further.

What is also quite clear is that a return to the 4 Pillar model through actual membership of the Single Market and freedom of movement is highly unlikely. It is quite possible that a mini-deal will however bring about liberalisation in this area, particularly around simplifying freedom of services including professions and arts.