domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 27, 2022 0:27:15 GMT
Starmer positioning Labour as a hard-line Brexit Party is interesting when public opinion as measured by polling seems to be going in the opposite direction: Wording. No renegotiation of this deal. Start with a fresh slate from a new and novel position of mutual trust and respect. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2022 0:30:03 GMT
oldnat - that is indeed a stupid policy proposal from Labour. Does policy matter? I seem to remember Gyles Brandreth going round Guildford and finding out that everyone loved Jeremy Corbyn's policies, yet his party never did well there.
Fashion, personality, reputation, hope, fear, prejudice... they are probably what win elections.
I think rampant price inflation, mortgage rate increases, and general 'enough of this lot for me, thank you', might also be significant decision formers for many next time. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 27, 2022 0:37:14 GMT
It would be interesting to know how many members of parliament - of all parties - would have to be named under than policy if it was based on buying illegal drugs rather than convictions. A hefty percentage I imagine. But it sounds like grandstanding for Daily Mail readers anyway. I doubt it would be found to be a 'legislative priority' if Labour got in power, just quietly forgotten, like many another manifesto pledge if it even made it that far.
Of course, it is. I doubt that ELab would be as pathetically incompetent as SLab (so why do you want Scots to vote for them?) and they wouldn't be so stupid as to put such a suggestion into their manifesto for England (I hope).
If a Labour Shadow Cabinet spokesperson feels it appropriate to grandstand to the unthinking English right wing is something that might concern a reasonable ELab supporter, since it indicates a potential to accommodate such views when in government.
Certainly it would suggest an ELab determination to avoid any reform of the current failing UK "war on drugs" stance. One might have hoped that ELab would have avoided "victim blaming", but it appears not. If ELab want to continue that policy in England that would be sad, but it would be abhorrent to continue current UK policy to ban safe consumption rooms in rUK, because of their hope to retain some approval from Daily Mail readers. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2022 0:40:36 GMT
The first thing that struck me from the 'banner' of this thread vis a vis the previous one on 01 Oct 22 is that whilst CON has remained steady at a pretty disappointing 27%, LAB has increased from 46% to 50%. What price a Sunak 'bounce' now?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 27, 2022 0:47:23 GMT
This is never going to see the light of day
If you mean that it won't result in legislation, I agree. If SLab had won the 2011 election, their policy on being in possession of a knife penalties wouldn't have either. There are often effective procedural blocks on the stupidity of parties proceeding with ideas that they thought a good idea to attract voters on.
That isn't the issue here. ELab allowed their shadow cabinet member to float that far right populist idea, in the hope that it might gain them some votes. In office, why would they behave differestly with an eye to the subsequent election? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 27, 2022 0:54:00 GMT
Starmer positioning Labour as a hard-line Brexit Party is interesting when public opinion as measured by polling seems to be going in the opposite direction: Wording. No renegotiation of this deal. Start with a fresh slate from a new and novel position of mutual trust and respect.
Of course, "this deal" can be renegotiated with a more accommodating, and less confrontational, approach - but it is still "this deal" that has to be renegotiated. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Nov 27, 2022 1:05:52 GMT
The first thing that struck me from the 'banner' of this thread vis a vis the previous one on 01 Oct 22 is that whilst CON has remained steady at a pretty disappointing 27%, LAB has increased from 46% to 50%. What price a Sunak 'bounce' now?
A more moderate Tory party would suit them much better, and ELab are positioning to fill that role.
English voters might, ideally, be allowed to vote for a Sunak led Labour government. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2022 1:45:36 GMT
The first thing that struck me from the 'banner' of this thread vis a vis the previous one on 01 Oct 22 is that whilst CON has remained steady at a pretty disappointing 27%, LAB has increased from 46% to 50%. What price a Sunak 'bounce' now?
A more moderate Tory party would suit them much better, and ELab are positioning to fill that role.
English voters might, ideally, be allowed to vote for a Sunak led Labour government.Your first paragraph seems plausible to me. LAB do seem to me to be attempting to occupy the centre ground, somewhat, but not greatly, to the left of CON, (which has been economically/fiscally fairly 'LAB' lately - pension increases etc.) I think the difference might be that, whilst the CON agenda is presently in some ways quite similar to the LAB offering, the public just doesn't care any more. These chancers have so permeated the public perception as a bunch of liars, sleaze merchants and incompetents that, irrespective of what they say or do, the game is up. I caught some of Question Time the other day. Dreadful, as usual, but the hapless token Tory got a good shoeing from the audience for virtually every response, regardless. The comparison with the same show in 1995-7 was striking. And that didn't end well for CON. |
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Post by moby on Nov 27, 2022 3:45:33 GMT
This rather reminds me of the SLab policy in 2011 on knife crime, which was to remove any mitigating factor (like walking home from fishing, with a knife in your pack) which allow police, fiscals and courts not to seek a mandatory jail sentence. (Hint : SLab majored on this, and lost more heavily than ever before). A truly medieval approach to justice if introduced. Generally treating addiction as a crime and shaming people who are often victims themselves is inhumane and totally retrogressive. If you live in an area commonly used for drug dealing transactions though, the fact that someone is there to buy and not to sell will make little difference to what it feels like for you and your children having to live in that environment? Probably it's clumsy policy kite flying designed to support people living in drug dealing hot spots. |
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Post by moby on Nov 27, 2022 5:13:42 GMT
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Post by hireton on Nov 27, 2022 8:27:31 GMT
Starmer positioning Labour as a hard-line Brexit Party is interesting when public opinion as measured by polling seems to be going in the opposite direction: Wording. No renegotiation of this deal. Start with a fresh slate from a new and novel position of mutual trust and respect. Except the deal is an international treaty which remains in force until changed. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 27, 2022 8:35:02 GMT
oldnatThere's clear polling evidence of widespread public disenchantment with brexit. Of course our resident brexitanian wants to move on , no one likes to be reminded regularly that they have been stupid. However as Beth Rigby mentioned while demolishing Jeremy Hunt's lacklustre defence of Brexit the subject has intentionally been excluded by most main stream journalists, for several years. That really only leaves social media platforms and a limited number of other media outlets to report the truth about the failure. History is full of shit that's been brushed under the carpet by the people who did the crapping , we shouldn't assist them by ignoring it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 27, 2022 8:49:03 GMT
In the past I was an active member of the Labour party campaigning for them and offering financial support. As it stands with the current brexitanian policy there's 0% chance of me returning. I hope domjg is right and it's just a ,misguided in my opinion, electoral ploy,time will tell. Consequently at the next election because of electoral mathematics locally while I may lend my vote to the Labour candidate as better than the Tory it's just that nothing more and people really shouldn't conflate voting against the conservatives as a ringing endorsement of Labour policy on all matters. The large majority of those who intend to vote Labour have made it abundantly clear that they regard Starmer as wrong on Brexit and his position on it to not align with their views or frankly reality, this won't prevent them voting but it hardly engenders enthusiasm. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 27, 2022 8:57:14 GMT
In the past I was an active member of the Labour party campaigning for them and offering financial support. As it stands with the current brexitanian policy there's 0% chance of me returning. I hope domjg is right and it's just a ,misguided in my opinion, electoral ploy,time will tell. Consequently at the next election because of electoral mathematics locally while I may lend my vote to the Labour candidate as better than the Tory it's just that nothing more and people really shouldn't conflate voting against the conservatives as a ringing endorsement of Labour policy on all matters. The large majority of those who intend to vote Labour have made it abundantly clear that they regard Starmer as wrong on Brexit and his position on it to not align with their views or frankly reality, this won't prevent them voting but it hardly engenders enthusiasm. Bigger fish to fry and all that. Voting for any party in our unrepresentative electoral system is always the wielding of a very blunt instrument. Least worst options are usually in play rather than much idealism and utopia. You can't always get what you ideally want but if you vote sometimes you might get what you need. Cheers Mick. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 27, 2022 9:07:36 GMT
Steve,
Maybe, in the same way that you're currently saying you'll 'lend your vote to Labour at the next GE' to get the Tories out, Starmer is currently 'lending' his support to make Brexit work, to get the Tories out.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 27, 2022 9:19:48 GMT
I will vote Labour next time as in my constituency it would be the best way of getting the tory out, although still unlikely
But I really don't understand why Starmer appears to want an even harder Brexit than some in the tory party.
There is no need for it, if he feels the need say he has no intention of rejoining the EU okay, but he should gave kept it at that so other options are on the table.
I thought May's red lines tied UK negotiators hands and meant we had a worse deal than we could of had.
Starmer has set out a similar position, it just wasn't necessary to be so dogmatic
Yes Labour need to defeat the tories, but the Starmer hard-line isn't necessary for that.
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 27, 2022 9:25:31 GMT
There were times after I'd watched them play almost five goalless hours over three games when I wondered what I'd done in a previous life to deserve Cambridge United. Then, very belatedly, a football match broke out and Grimsby Town finally provided me with my escape from Cambridgeshire. No more sad eyed ladies of the Lowlands for me after five visits to the county thus far on my FA Cup journey. Cleethorpes and a January North Sea promenade rendezvous next or, depending on Monday's velvet bag, just about anywhere in the country.
A wander around the famous seats of learning in Cambridge yesterday and a gentle stroll along the banks of the River Cam too. Some punts and one or two stunts.
The journey goes on and Wembley is slowly hoving into view. Always good to meander around the eccentricities of grass roots football. Life affirming experiences always ensue, based on the places you go and the people you meet.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Nov 27, 2022 9:40:28 GMT
In the past I was an active member of the Labour party campaigning for them and offering financial support. As it stands with the current brexitanian policy there's 0% chance of me returning. Yes, stopped to think about this. My first reaction is I would never again vote conservatives because of their stance on Brexit. Maybe not a big loss, because I seldom have anyway. However, the reality is if conservatives now came back with a policy of rejoining the EU, or maybe rejoining the markets, and labour had its current stance, then I would vote for the party offering the closer relations to the EU. There is scope here for con to use rejoin as an election winning strategy. Maybe not with its current cast of senior politicians and I dont see how they could renew these credibly before the next scheduled election. But the one after that. If labour have not moved the UK significantly closer to the EU by then, then I fancy conservatives will place this in their manifesto. The party really doesnt have any choice but to move in that direction, because the Uk economy is only going to carry on getting worse and the solution increasingly obvious. Brexit is going to be achknowledged as a national disaster, and they will have to distance from it. The irony, is that Johnson would be perfectly capable of running as con leader at the next election or any other, baldly explaining to voters he got it wrong and now wanted to lead the nation back to the true path. The options for me at the next election seem likely to be terrible. No party with a chance supporting rejoin. I suspect we will go into that election with a big labour lead, but it may underperform at the polls because with general consensus being a foregone conclusion of a labour win, many wont hold their noses enough to actually vote for them. I suspect the so-called support for labour when people are asked who they would vote for is wafer thin. Its truly choosing the least evil, neither of which you would want to win. Anyone wondering how SNP do so well on issues other than independence only has to notice they are neither con nor lab. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 27, 2022 9:49:09 GMT
Anent Farage
I'm trying to fathom Farage's motivation in hints that he might emerge from the swirling mists of the past like something in a dreadful Christmas panto.
Is it just a poke to try and remind the Tories that if they depart from his mantra, he'll make things even worse for them, or does he really want to use the opportunity to destroy the Tory Party and think that his party can become the main ROC champion.
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 27, 2022 9:53:46 GMT
Farage's recent hints came after the polling dates for this I think. They may not make any difference at all, but if Reform UK do tick up a point or two it might be worth keeping an eye on. Sir Keir is also trying to outflank the Tories with a 'keep (Brexit)it clean' article in the Sunday Wail:
"Sir Keir Starmer insists he won't derail Brexit as he rules out a Switzerland-style deal
- The Labour leader triggered a furious reaction from the Remainer wing of party
- Starmer has made it clear he would not cross 'red line' of freedom of movement
- Critics accused Starmer of being 'dishonest' given previous remarks on issue"
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11473087/Sir-Keir-Starmer-insists-wont-derail-Brexit-rules-Switzerland-style-deal.htmlIt's all a bit weird. I find myself, an Arch True-BrLeaver in a 'Clean Brexit', leaning back towards CON as the party who might be best placed to tie off a few of the loose ends from the Frosty-Boris deal. With RUK and now LAB both trying to outflank CON by wanting to 'Keep (Brex)it Clean' NB These are just tiny tweaks to the TCA, a rewriting/reimplementing of NIP and a broader 'Entente' with our near neighbours. Pretty minor stuff but clearly still highly emotive for some people - even amongst Leavers. I feel a bit sorry of Remainers/Rejoiners who still consider Brexit to be important issue as no-one (or at least no major party in E&W) is proposing any policy of an EC-UK 'closer' relationship that covers bringing back 'purple' passports, alignment of rules on goods, etc. |
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Post by alec on Nov 27, 2022 9:57:15 GMT
Just added a link over on the covid thread to a really interesting report on the current state of covid variants and the possible future evolutionary path. I've also added a general round up of where I think we are with cases/hospitalisations.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 27, 2022 10:04:49 GMT
In the past I was an active member of the Labour party campaigning for them and offering financial support. As it stands with the current brexitanian policy there's 0% chance of me returning. I hope domjg is right and it's just a ,misguided in my opinion, electoral ploy,time will tell. Consequently at the next election because of electoral mathematics locally while I may lend my vote to the Labour candidate as better than the Tory it's just that nothing more and people really shouldn't conflate voting against the conservatives as a ringing endorsement of Labour policy on all matters. The large majority of those who intend to vote Labour have made it abundantly clear that they regard Starmer as wrong on Brexit and his position on it to not align with their views or frankly reality, this won't prevent them voting but it hardly engenders enthusiasm. I must admit if Lab adopted an unambiguously pro brexit policy past the point where it made any tactical sense, when the public and esp their own supporters are running in the other direction, it would make it very hard for me to support them. But I don't think that's going to happen. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Nov 27, 2022 10:16:33 GMT
@those wanting an independent Scotland.
I know that an important part of your strategy is trying to make the point that all governance options for England are terrible. Well we don't have the SNP to fall back on (and the jury it seems is definitely out on whether they represent good governance, despite the Liberal mood music).
Labour are the only game in town for us.
Very much looking forward to when you achieve your goal and can maybe stop crowing about how terrible you think our options are and undermining Labour at every opportunity.
Expecting a wordy, patronising response.
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Post by crossbat11 on Nov 27, 2022 10:21:16 GMT
domjg
I don't think Labour under Starmer's leadership will ever be an overtly pro-Brexit party. How could it be when Starmer, and most of his leadership team, campaigned vigorously to remain in the EU only six years ago and, prior to the Brexit GE in 2019, even tried to get a second referendum on the issue.
What I think he's doing, as the floor gets shinier and the Ming Vase heavier, is trying to navigate the still choppy waters of Brexit where betrayed referenda emotions still run high. Hence his changed stance of no rejoin and instead making the existing deal work better. In realpolitik terms, I suspect this is sensible.
A clever politician once in government should find plenty of wriggle room in that stance, especially one as intrinsically sympathetic to the EU as Starmer is.
Like all Leaders of the Opposition, especially the successful ones, he's creating mood music and shutting down exposed flanks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2022 10:25:31 GMT
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Post by laszlo4new on Nov 27, 2022 10:40:03 GMT
Sorry for this, but I brought it in in the last thread, so I thought an update would be useful. The fined mayor of Kharkiv said that he would continue to address the people of his town in Russian, adding that not his use of language but the victory is important, and that the long-term division in the use of language doesn't affect of them being Ukrainian. korrespondent.net/city/kharkov/4538664-terekhov-zaiavyl-chto-budet-obschatsia-na-russkom[The Guardian reported that Zelensky criticised the lord mayor of Kiev for not being quick enough for restoring heating, electricity, but forgot to report the response of the lord mayor... In any case, the lord mayor supported the opponent of Zelensky in the 2019 elections, so it is largely domestic politics.] |
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Post by EmCat on Nov 27, 2022 10:41:22 GMT
Anent Farage I'm trying to fathom Farage's motivation in hints that he might emerge from the swirling mists of the past like something in a dreadful Christmas panto. Is it just a poke to try and remind the Tories that if they depart from his mantra, he'll make things even worse for them, or does he really want to use the opportunity to destroy the Tory Party and think that his party can become the main ROC champion. I suspect it is, potentially, both. Firstly, a warning to the Tories, and then, if that no longer has his desired effect on making the Tories tack even further right, then he can become the escape route of a subset of Tory supporters, who might still turn out to vote, but have lost faith with how things went after their 2019 vote. Meanwhile, others are looking to switch either to Labour (some of the Red Wall voters) or Lib Dem (the "don't like the way the party is heading, but couldn't bring myself to vote Labour" group), so the 3-way split will also benefit Farage. Though whether he can follow through on his implied threats, is another matter |
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Post by alec on Nov 27, 2022 10:46:08 GMT
Mr Poppy - "NB These are just tiny tweaks to the TCA, a rewriting/reimplementing of NIP and a broader 'Entente' with our near neighbours. Pretty minor stuff but clearly still highly emotive for some people - even amongst Leavers. I feel a bit sorry of Remainers/Rejoiners who still consider Brexit to be important issue as no-one (or at least no major party in E&W) is proposing any policy of an EC-UK 'closer' relationship that covers bringing back 'purple' passports, alignment of rules on goods, etc." I think the 'I feel sorry for....' argument is a classic of it's kind, usually employed when a fervently held position starts to unravel, such as is happening with Brexit. Clearly, the relationship with the EU is going to evolve, and if you and the Daily Mail think that under Labour, this will merely be "just tiny tweaks to the TCA" then I take that to mean that the Labour PR machine is doing it's job well. Why bother being explicit about how things have to change if you don't need to? Not sure there is anyone sensible who imagines that in 5 or 10 years time we'll have arrangements with the EU that look anything like the TCA, and those who imagine that membership of CPTPP will somehow act as a barrier to closer arrangements with the EU will be in for a surprise.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 27, 2022 10:51:17 GMT
domjgI hope you're right, fwiw I think on balance you probably are, but this constant born again brexitanianism makes the inevitable and essential switch back more difficult. Meanwhile nice to see where colonel slanders is taking the gop having a cosy dinner on the veranda with his new best buddies including white supremacist and anti-semite holocaust denier,Nick Fuentes at Mar-a-Lago . You would like to think this would put voters off but a party that embraces racist q anon conspiracy theorist nutter Marjorie Taylor Green is already a long long way down the rabbit hole to crazy town
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Post by alec on Nov 27, 2022 10:59:52 GMT
hireton - "Starmer positioning Labour as a hard-line Brexit Party is interesting when public opinion as measured by polling seems to be going in the opposite direction:" As others have pointed out, I don't think you can describe this in such terms. There is a word of difference between "ripping up" a treaty and adding lots of extras to it. Many of the most beneficial moves are decisions made in Westminster. So for example, aligning with REACH and scrapping plans to have UK REACH, aligning on phyto sanitary standards, and permanently adopting the CE goods standard don't need any negotiations for a UK government to enact but effectively gut the dafter objectives of the arch Brexiters. Such moves would be very well received by industry, and could be used to negotiate more formal recognition within the TCA. Of course, the argument that the TCA isn't a fixed position cuts both ways, and pro hard Brexit supporters could always seek to reverse these decisions once back in power, but that would be quite hard; these are the very worst elements of the TCA, costing the country billions (£3bn alone for the chemicals sector) and reversing such gains would have a direct cost, so would be unpopular. So I think it's far more likely that we should read these statements as spin, more than anything else.
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