Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 14, 2023 12:34:45 GMT
A link and useful graph posted by jib on the main thread. Reposting here so it's easy to find in the future, if the same discussion crops back up. Note there was a big drop in immigration during Covid (2019-2021) and we had a lot of skilled worker vacancies in the 'post Covid' bounce back (2022-23) but vacancies are now falling (see Fig1 in below link). The purpose of a 'points based immigration system' is to treat everyone equally, no matter which country they come from, ensuring we continue to attract the types of immigrants that we want and choose to. Those numbers will rise and fall with the economic cycle (see previous posts on this thread and how clearly it can be seen in the graph that jib posted) www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/september2023 |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 14, 2023 15:08:54 GMT
Another useful link showing the Healthcare sector which represented about 100,000 of the skilled worker visas in the year ending March 2023. Also has info on: "vacancies in the UK’s health and social work sector peaked at 217,000 in July to September 2022 before falling somewhat in late 2022 and early 2023"Also of note is the risk that a lot of British healthcare workers emigrate to places like Australia, Canada, Middle East and we effectively see quite high 'churn' where UK replaces healthcare workers poached by 'rich' countries with healthcare workers we poach from 'poor' countries. That does save Britain some ££ and would be a 'net zero' change but is not IMO something we wish to encourage. Retention of British healthcare workers is lengthy separate issue but in the short-term is likely that we'll continue to see ongoing net immigration to fill the ongoing vacancies in health and social work sector.
Migration and the health and care workforce(27 JUN 2023) migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migration-and-the-health-and-care-workforce/ |
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Mr Poppy
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Teaching assistant and now your elected PM
Posts: 3,774
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Post by Mr Poppy on Oct 16, 2023 7:56:35 GMT
Guardian reporting on a new piece from 'The Migration Observatory'
UK net migration will start falling to pre-Brexit levels, analysis showswww.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/oct/16/uk-net-migration-will-start-falling-to-pre-brexit-levels-analysis-showsFor the full report direct from the horse's mouth then see:
Why are the latest net migration figures not a reliable guide to future trends?migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/reports/why-are-the-latest-net-migration-figures-not-a-reliable-guide-to-future-trends/Covers points already made on this thread such as 'one-off' factors and note they make lot of assumptions for their base case future scenario. However it does contain lots of historic data (eg Fig2 "8year stay rates, by visa category) which allows them to predict emigration 'with a lag' HMG policy impact immigration side of the 'net' numbers and they are assuming that doesn't change with constant future numbers of. From Fig1, per year from 2023 (my comments) Study Visa: 370k (should be considered separately IMO as vast majority of those return home - see Fig2) Work Visas: 255k (would IMO more likely follow economic cycle and with vacancies dropping then I'd expect that to drop) Family Visa: 50k (note dependents of people on student visas are shown in student numbers) Other: 30k Specific scheme (settles down from 2025): 20k (clearly a guess) Asylum: 50k + Refugee resettlement: 5k Table1 allows you to modify their assumptions and Section 6 shows a range of "Future net migration scenarios" most of which can be highly influenced by HMG policy. Plenty of other scenarios are possible of course and some of the scenarios might be combined. So quite a handy link for people to use and refer back to (IMO of course). No need for 'Groundhog Day' discussion on the main thread (IMO of course). |
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Post by mercian on Oct 20, 2023 9:31:07 GMT
I've just come across a new euphemism for non-whites - "global majority". There was a bit on Radio 4 about NHS maternity services and apparently they are failing the "global majority" in some way. Apparently BAME is out of favour. I think they keep inventing these new words as a way of recognising who's woke and who isn't.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2023 9:17:47 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2023 10:11:29 GMT
"Developing countries spent nearly $500 billion to service their external public and publicly guaranteed debt in 2022, draining funds from critical health, education and climate spending, and putting the poorest countries at increasing risk of “tumbling into a debt crisis,” the World Bank warned yesterday.
In its latest International Debt Report, the bank, which has 189 member countries, said the debt-service payments — including principal and interest — rose 5 per cent to a record $443.5 billion from a year earlier amid the biggest surge in global interest rates in four decades. The payments could rise by a further 10 per cent next year, the bank added.
The 75 poorest countries were hardest hit, the report said, now in its 50th year. Their external public debt service payments reached a record $88.9 billion in 2022 and would surge by 40 per cent over the 2023-24 period. Their interest payments alone had quadrupled since 2012 to $23.6 billion, it said.
“This is the decade of reckoning,” Indermit Gill, World Bank chief economist, said. “Record debt levels and high interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis, he said, warning that continued high interest rates would push more developing countries into debt distress.
African countries faced “another lost decade,” Gill told Reuters, noting that they had seen no per capita income growth since 2014 on average.
The report said one in every four developing countries was now priced out of international capital markets and there had been 18 sovereign debt defaults in ten countries over the past three years — more than in the past two decades combined."
Times today.
The living conditions that all of this will produce in Africa & elsewhere will not reduce the flow of economic migrants to Europe.
A Europe in economic stagnation with a looming defence catastrophe on its eastern border.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2023 12:38:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2023 13:00:33 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2023 10:50:27 GMT
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