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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2022 13:55:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2022 14:12:17 GMT
Mr Poppy MAC Committee Professor Brian Bell Professor Dina Kiwan (Part of meeting) Professor Jo Swaffield Professor Sergi Pardos-Prado Madeleine Sumption Della Mcvay Toby Nutley MAC Secretariat 4 Academics + 1 Statistician/analyst + 2 Civil servants. Business people - NIL
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Mr Poppy
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 22, 2022 15:35:06 GMT
but Rishi seems focussed more on the former - even though he/Braverman are still mostly talking about it rather than doing something about it. Just had a look at the latest interaction between HMG and the body supposed to be finding out what skills we need. Its all ridiculously slow:- Sir Keir mentioned that he would speed that process up in his speech(5). It can be a very slow process in various countries that use the 'points based' system (eg Canada*, Australia**, etc). The whole process should be fairly fast but all parts need to be in sync (eg in Canada the 'queue' is currently 27mths for 'skilled worker' so if you change the points for specific skills then everyone in the queue either needs to get to the front OR you scrap that queue and start a new one). The 'slow process' is possibly one of the reasons why some eligible Albanians/others pay £thousands to get to UK/other places 'quicker' - hoping they can jump the queue*** and/or slip into the illegal jobs market. * Some 'pre-queue' processes but link for them and if you put in 'Economic Immigration' and 'Skilled workers (Federal)' it states 27months. www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-processing-times.html** Bit vague. I've heard the 'large number of older cases on-hand' is given much longer delays than they indicate: immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/getting-a-visa/visa-processing-times*** Some info in below but note the 'waiting times' don't start until certain conditions have been met. It is probably pretty quick if you have a specific job or a uni place but might be slower in other circumstances due to high demand? www.gov.uk/guidance/visa-decision-waiting-times-applications-outside-the-uk(5) OK, maybe not specifically in his speech. I think he mentioned it recently though?? labour.org.uk/press/keir-starmer-speech-to-the-confederation-of-british-industry-conference-2022/ |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 22, 2022 16:34:24 GMT
The next wave looks Egyptian... Attaching a link for birth rates across the World. Most developed nations are <2 births per woman; every country in Africa is >2; Egypt 3.24; and some places are over 5! Africa can't support that many people and I expect we all understand the desire for 'economic migration' from many of those countries but we can't just let everyone in. The only 'non-racist' way to control immigration is via a skills based points system. Note UK is 1.56 (ie we'd have a shrinking population with no immigration). So to keep our population about the same then we do need some immigration and whilst I don't like to put a specific number on it then 200,000/yr seems a reasonable 'average' amount. data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?view=map |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 23, 2022 8:33:46 GMT
I have no issue with some more 'flex' in the 'flexible points based immigration policy' (and nor does Sir Keir, see his speech to CBI). IMO we could tackle both issues at the same time (ie less illegal immigration and more legal immigration) but Rishi seems focussed more on the former - even though he/Braverman are still mostly talking about it rather than doing something about it. Agreed. They should be solved together. Ipsos call it a 'nuanced' approach. Polling from 11Oct'22 (similar to the more detailed polling YG has done in the past) Public attitudes to immigration shows public take a balanced approachwww.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigration-tracker-october-2022Lots of types of immigration we do want, and some that we don't (although not sure why public is so anti-bankers given the amount of tax they pay)? Not much history to the tracker (only started in the run-up to EURef'16) but they still find that overall: Four in ten people (42%) would prefer immigration to be reduced, 26% that it stays the same and 24% that it increases (ie net 18% would prefer immigration to be reduced)
'Reduced' is quite vague but immigration has been around 300k net migration in recent years - see Fig2 in attached migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/So OBR's 'guess' of 200k net migration for the next 5yrs would be a significant reduction and be about the average from 2011-2021 (see above link and note that immigration data has a huge time lag). The question is then 'What type of immigration' and hence the nuanced approach to solve both aspects together (ie less illegal immigration via small boats but more 'flex' in the flexible skills based points system for legal immigration) |
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Post by mercian on Nov 23, 2022 17:22:14 GMT
GB News had an item this morning where they interviewed rough sleepers in Blackpool who couldn't understand why 300 illegal immigrants were put up in a big hotel while they were ignored. They weren't angry, just puzzled.
One said "It's just not right"
It's hard not to agree with him.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2022 9:06:54 GMT
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Post by neilj on Nov 24, 2022 9:36:03 GMT
GB News had an item this morning where they interviewed rough sleepers in Blackpool who couldn't understand why 300 illegal immigrants were put up in a big hotel while they were ignored. They weren't angry, just puzzled. One said "It's just not right" It's hard not to agree with him. There is an answer, sort out the decision making so it doesn't take over a year for a ruling to be made In the meantime, pending a decision, allow them to work so they are not a burden on the state If I was cynical I might think this Government's failure was not incompetence but a deliberate policy to vilify asylum seekers for political purposes. Either way it's not working, the problem is seen as a failure of this Government |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 24, 2022 12:00:32 GMT
GB News had an item this morning where they interviewed rough sleepers in Blackpool who couldn't understand why 300 illegal immigrants were put up in a big hotel while they were ignored. They weren't angry, just puzzled. One said "It's just not right" It's hard not to agree with him. There's plenty of rooms at the Hotel called Rwanda - and as well as British taxpayers footing the bill for UK hotels we're paying for those empty rooms in Rwanda! (£120m + a recent £20m top-up) 'Genuine' asylum seekers fleeing persecution should be happy to find a new home in any safe country. For those that are not 'genuine' asylum seekers then knowing their application will be processed outwith the UK will be a deterrent to pay the criminal gangs to traffic you across Europe and risk the treacherous channel crossing in a small boat. If someone has the skills that UK needs then apply to be a 'legal immigrant' using the skills based points system. I'd agree with neilj WRT to "In the meantime, pending a decision, allow them to work so they are not a burden on the state" as we're also be picking up the processing bill in Rwanda (estimated at £12k pp), not that anyone has actually used the empty beds in Rwanda yet. I'm also cynical and would agree: "I might think this Government's failure was not incompetence but a deliberate policy to vilify asylum seekers 'irregular immigration'* for political purposes"
(some minor corrections) The current system is not working, the problem certainly is seen as a failure of this Government (from both sides of what is a divisive issue - see polling previously posted). Braverman has even stated the system is 'broken' but having raised the salience of the issue then she now needs to fix it and get on with it. * EC-EU's preferred term to cover everyone who is not a genuine asylum seeker. They don't seem to like the word 'illegal'. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 24, 2022 13:00:11 GMT
RW press (and likes of RUK) are going to have a field day misrepresenting the latest ONS data. Yes, the headline number sounds shocking and the political pressure will be on CON to do something about the areas they should be doing something about. However, we should not chuck the baby out with the bathwater and I'd personally like to see the data represented to exclude 'students' (big jump 'post Covid') and make specific 'headline' adjustments for anything that is likely to be 'one-off' factors, such as Ukraine. IE first show the numbers 'net' of 'one-offs' and students and then state the 'one-offs' and student impact below the headline
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2022www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022 |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2022 13:29:13 GMT
RW press (and likes of RUK) are going to have a field day misrepresenting the latest ONS data. Yes, the headline number sounds shocking and the political pressure will be on CON to do something about the areas they should be doing something about. However, we should not chuck the baby out with the bathwater and I'd personally like to see the data represented to exclude 'students' (big jump 'post Covid') and make specific 'headline' adjustments for anything that is likely to be 'one-off' factors, such as Ukraine. IE first show the numbers 'net' of 'one-offs' and students and then state the 'one-offs' and student impact below the headline
Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending June 2022www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2022Hong Kong, Syria , Ukraine , Afghanistan Schemes. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 24, 2022 14:10:25 GMT
Hong Kong, Syria , Ukraine , Afghanistan Schemes. Good point. However, I specifically split out Ukraine as I would have thought the expectation is that most of those are 'temporary' (ie once the war in Ukraine is over then most of the "around 89,000* Ukraine Scheme visa-holders arrived in the UK" will return to Ukraine). Some of the others are hopefully 'one-off' but are likely permanent. HK is a bit more complicated due to BN(O). Afghanistan ( "around 21,000 arrivals"). IIRC I posted an article recently explaining part of the problem of these 'one-offs' is that if so much of the immigration we can absorb is 'humanitarian' from situations like Ukraine then there is very little room left for skills based immigration. * WRT to Ukraine then UK is taking in far less than many other countries (for various reasons) but I note the below source states 146,200 data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 24, 2022 18:03:34 GMT
Whilst they'll be no prizes for guessing the kind off headlines I expect we'll see in likes of Express, Sun or the Daily Wail then I'm disappointed to see Times stating 'Net' and then using a gross numbers for their 'headline'
Net migration at record levels as 1.1 million arrive in Britainwww.thetimes.co.uk/article/net-migration-at-record-levels-as-1-1-million-arrive-in-britain-zfs0xvp6tI do think we should have some limitations of Brits getting themselves into £50k of debt taking 'low quality courses' at Uni but the article highlights the worrying issue of 'low quality data' (see previous comments on which parts of immigration should be stated 'below the (head)line'). 'Low quality data' that is then misrepresented by the press creates knee-jerk reactions. Shame on Rishi and CON HMG if, instead of explaining the data, they take a jerk knee approach.  |
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Post by birdseye on Nov 24, 2022 21:28:09 GMT
GB News had an item this morning where they interviewed rough sleepers in Blackpool who couldn't understand why 300 illegal immigrants were put up in a big hotel while they were ignored. They weren't angry, just puzzled. One said "It's just not right" It's hard not to agree with him. There is an answer, sort out the decision making so it doesn't take over a year for a ruling to be made In the meantime, pending a decision, allow them to work so they are not a burden on the state If I was cynical I might think this Government's failure was not incompetence but a deliberate policy to vilify asylum seekers for political purposes. Either way it's not working, the problem is seen as a failure of this Government your last comment is probably correct. It will be interesting to see what happens when we change government at the next GE and the issue continues unabated as it will. |
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Post by birdseye on Nov 24, 2022 21:52:20 GMT
Braverman has even stated the system is 'broken' but having raised the salience of the issue then she now needs to fix it and get on with it. Is it fixable? Faced with the international agreement on asylum, lack of co-operation of the immigrants ( destruction of documents), lack or co-operation of their home countries, and endless legal appeals? Let alone the immigrants who disappear.
Remember how long it took to get rid of Abu Hamza.
It seems that successive governments and maybe the civil service have backed themselves into a legal blind alley they cannot get out of and that is reflected in just 2000 immigrants returned last year.
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Post by Mr Poppy on Nov 24, 2022 21:59:49 GMT
Is it fixable? Faced with the international agreement on asylum, lack of co-operation of the immigrants ( destruction of documents), lack or co-operation of their home countries, and endless legal appeals? Let alone the immigrants who disappear.
Remember how long it took to get rid of Abu Hamza.
It seems that successive governments and maybe the civil service have backed themselves into a legal blind alley they cannot get out of and that is reflected in just 2000 immigrants returned last year.
Q1: Bend or break a/ which laws and b/ will be for which court to decide? Q2: What 'punishment' will an International court place on UK Answer the above and then I would say that UK parliament is sovereign and add that a lot of the countries who have 'signed' an international agreement on asylum will quite likely then copy UK (eg Denmark, who are arguably ahead of UK already) If something is broken then we need to fix it - simples. |
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Post by mercian on Nov 24, 2022 22:32:53 GMT
Is it fixable? Faced with the international agreement on asylum, lack of co-operation of the immigrants ( destruction of documents), lack or co-operation of their home countries, and endless legal appeals? Let alone the immigrants who disappear.
Remember how long it took to get rid of Abu Hamza.
It seems that successive governments and maybe the civil service have backed themselves into a legal blind alley they cannot get out of and that is reflected in just 2000 immigrants returned last year.
Just to be clear, it was Mr Poppy who posted the bit you were replying to, not me. I agree with you. The only option I can think of that might be a deterrent to all the illegal immigrants is to keep them in a big refugee camp such as they have in the Middle East, until they can be deported home or to Ruanda. Also the Home Office really needs to get it's act together. Either drastically speed up the process using automation or hire hundreds more people. |
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Post by birdseye on Dec 3, 2022 10:53:25 GMT
Is it fixable? Faced with the international agreement on asylum, lack of co-operation of the immigrants ( destruction of documents), lack or co-operation of their home countries, and endless legal appeals? Let alone the immigrants who disappear.
Remember how long it took to get rid of Abu Hamza.
It seems that successive governments and maybe the civil service have backed themselves into a legal blind alley they cannot get out of and that is reflected in just 2000 immigrants returned last year.
Q1: Bend or break a/ which laws and b/ will be for which court to decide? Q2: What 'punishment' will an International court place on UK Answer the above and then I would say that UK parliament is sovereign and add that a lot of the countries who have 'signed' an international agreement on asylum will quite likely then copy UK (eg Denmark, who are arguably ahead of UK already) If something is broken then we need to fix it - simples. No it isnt simples. Asylum originally "political asylum" used to be all about giving opposition political leaders safety from persecution by government. An example is Khomeini in Paris and there are many many others. It was never intended to be used as it now is for every citizen in a country like Somalia to be able to claim asylum if they can get themselves here. The law we need to change is to make immigration a purely administrative issue not subject to judicial revue because keeping it subject to review means that every decision to say no has to be legally as bulletproof as you can get, and has created a legal appeals industry funded by the tax payer.
As for Q2 you cant jail or punish a country which can simply ignore foreign rulings in the way that the USA usually does.
Of course the UK parliament is sovereign. It can retire from any international agreements as far as iits own territory is concerned. I am sure we dont want to do that but the asylum system is being abused at present and UK internal laws / regulations make it impossible to fight as the mayor of Calais explained.
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 6, 2022 15:44:26 GMT
France, where immigration is even more out of control than UK. New law tackles the 'good' ( "speedier work permits to foreign workers with skills required in particular sectors of the economy") and speeds up dealing with the 'bad' ( "reduce the number of appeals possible for failed asylum seekers from 12 to three and in theory speed up expulsion procedures") Macron tackles French immigration 'anxieties' with new lawwww.france24.com/en/live-news/20221206-macron-tackles-french-immigration-anxieties-with-new-lawMacron doesn't control a majority of French MPs so he'll likely need to toughen the new law proposals further to get it passed. We're still waiting for specific details from Braverman who needs to 'get on with it'. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2022 13:29:05 GMT
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Post by birdseye on Dec 12, 2022 15:54:37 GMT
Our problem is not the number arriving but our complete failure to send any significant number back to where they came from. Given the parlous state of many third world countries, even the UK will always seem attractive enough to make an effort to get here. Nor do we want to be uncivilised enough not to help them when they arrive in small boats. We just need to be able to send them back without any legalistic involvement. So lets make the question of visas into a purely administrative non legal process where a decision can be made on arrival as they do in Oz. |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 13, 2022 15:35:07 GMT
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 19, 2022 16:17:59 GMT
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Post by Mr Poppy on Dec 21, 2022 19:42:55 GMT
Given they are leaving a safe country (France) then I'm personally glad to see the following ruling, given it hopefully deters so many people trying to make the crossing and will hence damage the business model of the criminal gangs.
Asylum seekers can be prosecuted for steering dinghies across the Channel, judge ruleswww.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/channel-boat-prosecutions-asylum-seekers-b2249403.htmlTo repeat my view. If you can legally enter the UK (eg via a cheap flight into a UK airport) then why pay £thousands to criminal gangs and risk your life to use a 'small boat' to get to UK from a safe country such as France? I'm in favour of legal, skills based, immigration but we need to break the business model of the criminal gangs who profit from 'illegal' entry and human trafficking (and the court's ruling on the legality is hence welcomed IMO). |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Feb 6, 2023 11:59:23 GMT
Moved below to the Issue Specific thread for further discussion on the Immigration specific issues: Rishi has been in the news* with an 'update' on what CON HMG intend to do to meet one of his 5 pledges. I appreciate the issue is divisive amongst gen.pub and even within CON MPs and it is the latter group that is perhaps why we are seeing 'dither and delay'. Whilst there is some merit in getting an electoral mandate for any major change in approach (eg EURef'16 and then the 'Final Say' GE'19 for Brexit) then delaying what will very likely be the final step means two things: 1/ Rishi delays (and due to #2 avoids) yet another internal split within CON MPs (which is IMO the main reason for the 'dither and delay') 2/ CON will lose the next GE and so won't enact any of their manifesto anyway (and IMO the eventual need to leave the ECHR in order to fully 'Take Back Control' of our borders is relatively minor in the big picture and something that CON HMG already have a democratic mandate to follow through on - one they will lose in GE'24) People aren't stupid and will quite rightly say 'why are you taking so long' and then into GE'24 have little reason to believe re-electing a CON HMG will finally get them to do what they should have done during HoC 19-24. Note Immigration is an important issue to CON'19 voters (3rd most important at 41% on 'pick up to 3' with R&W last week) and they are not impressed with how CON HMG have been handling the Immigration issue (or any issue for that matter). VI polling likely already 'prices in' the 'dither and delay' but as mentioned previously it is plausible that RUK take a larger bite out of CON'19 votes and/or a lot of the current DKs in CON'19 VI do not 'roll over' the vote they lent to CON in GE'19 and abstain (ie the 'expected' improvement in CON VI into the next GE doesn't happen and with the ongoing suicidal CON factional issues (eg Truss reboot) and psychodrama (Zahawi, Raab) then CON are handing a whopping majority to Starmer on a plate). * Times seems to get the 'kite flying' info first but most press are reporting similar so a 'free' source: www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/05/tory-mps-to-push-for-uk-exit-from-european-convention-of-human-rightsto which I'll add another link that both sides of the discussion will probably agree with but for very different reasons (ie Rishi is "willy waving" and "Our Home Office is crap"). www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rishi-sunak-echr-politics-latest-b2276526.html |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 28, 2023 10:00:36 GMT
Lots of useful links in the below posts so I'm copying them over to the Issue Specific thread: 25000 drowned in the Med in 9 years !!! This quote from your interesting euronews piece highlights a classic EU conundrum -who is responsible for this ?:- "According to the current regulation, “the responsibility for the control and surveillance of the external borders lies with the Member States” -- Frontex is only responsible for the “coordination” of national forces." According to Frontex its "role and responsibility" is to "control" eu external " border management" :- frontex.europa.eu/we-support/roles-responsibilities/#:~:text=Frontex's%20mission%20is%20to%20promote,of%20EU%2Dintegrated%20border%20management. This article explains why Frontex face a hopeless task on the western Med. route:- It explains succinctly why subsidies and externalised boders will continue to fail :- www.gisreportsonline.com/r/eu-africa-migration/"Nevertheless, migration push factors in Africa will remain and likely intensify over the next decades. The main reason is simple: economic growth and opportunities are not keeping pace with population growth. The rapid expansion of the global working-age population is shifting from Asia to Africa, and by 2050, more than half of the latter’s population will be under 25 years old. Income disparities between African and European countries will persist over the coming decades. Moreover, migration is costly and often not viable for the poorest." the solution proposed in the article is summarized with :- "The EU may be pressed to curb its protectionist instincts, reducing the regulatory hurdles that block African products from the European market." With regard to the onward passage to the Chanel of EU unregulated immigration, the nationalities which predominate in small boats are representative of the Western Balkan route rather than N. Africa :- www.politico.eu/article/crossings-eu-borders-highest-2016-frontex-report-migration/Whilst this is a land crossing it is no less fraught with tension :- ecre.org/balkan-route-commission-increases-support-to-western-balkans-amid-increase-in-violence-and-pushbacks/ |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 28, 2023 10:17:35 GMT
HoC votes on amendments to Illegal Immigration Bill. Of note CON had a very successful whipping operation but have promised to look into changes in three areas address concerns from both sides. I'll use the Guardian's summary view of each amendments purpose with a * against that ones that CON MPs have also raised and that Rishi+Braverman have scope to find compromise on. Amendment 76: No 308 v 244 "The amendment allows individuals seeking asylum who claim to be victim of crime, human trafficking or deprived of their human rights to remain in the UK during their asylum process."
New Clause 6 *: No 307 v 67 (LAB abstain) "LDEM's safe passage pilot scheme."New Clause 24 ** : No 301 v 246
"make provision for unaccompanied children asylum seekers coming from the EU to be allowed into the UK for the purposes of family reunion"
New Clause 25: No 306 v 196
"require the government to create reciprocal co-operation deals with the EU Member States regarding asylum seeker and illegal migration issues"
* Probably not via changing of the wording in the bill but by a separate promise to allow more 'genuine' asylum seekers in via safe+legal routes as/when the unsafe+illegal routes are reduced in volume. ** Would have been nice for CON and LAB to work on wording on that one and agree it before the vote. There is an issue with determining age, etc but there is potential to 'soften' the bill to ensure children and vulnerable women can be exempt from the new law in specific circumstances that relate to clearly being 'modern day slavery' NB No 'hardening' amendments although Rishi saw off a rumoured 60ish CON MP rebellion by promising to discuss the issue of ECHR objections with those wanted an even tougher approach. Note RUK's view is to stop wasting time, pre-empt the ECtHR objections and leave the ECHR immediately - which IMO is not necessary, certainly not yet anyway. Link for HoC votes: votes.parliament.uk/Votes/CommonsSummary wording from Guardian Politics Live |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 29, 2023 18:57:00 GMT
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Post by Mr Poppy on Mar 30, 2023 7:04:05 GMT
Whilst NE.Africa is getting a lot of the current attention then an article to show the size of the problem in Turkey
What will happen to Turkey's EU migrant deal if the opposition wins the election? www.euronews.com/2023/03/30/what-will-happen-to-turkeys-eu-migrant-deal-if-the-opposition-wins-the-election- " According to official numbers, Turkey hosts 3,447,837 Syrian refugees registered under temporary protection as of March 2023"- "Statistics from Turkish authorities show that about 37,000 Syrians (1%) have been relocated to Western countries under the one-for-one principle"- "In 2017 only around 32% of Syrians wanted to settle in a third country, by 2021 this number had risen to 64.2%"
(and will probably now be even higher given the approach Turkey is looking to take). |
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Post by Mr Poppy on Aug 16, 2023 1:21:25 GMT
Article covering various approaches across Europe including some 'illegal' approaches where the country ignores international law
How EU states try to curtail migrationwww.dw.com/en/how-eu-states-try-to-curtail-migration/a-66543041#and an example of how one country is trying to create a more 'hostile environment' in order to ensure it becomes less attractive to migrants (although they have an issue with 'devolved polities)
Helsinki to become 'safe haven,' as government seeks to get strict on migrationwww.infomigrants.net/en/post/51107/helsinki-to-become-safe-haven-as-government-seeks-to-get-strict-on-migrationAs mentioned a few times then if any devolved polity in UK (eg Scotland, London or G.Manchester/Liverpool) want to put their hands up to accept more migrants then please do. I'm not sure that is the answer but it would be interesting to call out the 'virtue signalling' and see if NIMBYism becomes more important once the 'virtue signallers' are called out. |
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