Immigration

[Deleted]

Aug 16, 2023 1:21:25 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Article covering various approaches across Europe including some 'illegal' approaches where the country ignores international law

How EU states try to curtail migration
www.dw.com/en/how-eu-states-try-to-curtail-migration/a-66543041#

and an example of how one country is trying to create a more 'hostile environment' in order to ensure it becomes less attractive to migrants (although they have an issue with 'devolved polities)

Helsinki to become 'safe haven,' as government seeks to get strict on migration
www.infomigrants.net/en/post/51107/helsinki-to-become-safe-haven-as-government-seeks-to-get-strict-on-migration

As mentioned a few times then if any devolved polity in UK (eg Scotland, London or G.Manchester/Liverpool) want to put their hands up to accept more migrants then please do. I'm not sure that is the answer but it would be interesting to call out the 'virtue signalling' and see if NIMBYism becomes more important once the 'virtue signallers' are called out. 

I see that they still cant agree on the most recent idea :-


www.politico.eu/article/a-price-tag-to-reject-migrants-its-not-the-only-fight-threatening-a-reform-package/

Unless they ( and we) open up more "safe entry" routes this just gets bigger and bigger. And if we do that-there is a whole list of caveats-How many ?. From where? Via what location ? .....Detention centres ? .....how to manage the "excess" ?.....

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 16, 2023 8:09:36 GMT colin said:

Aug 16, 2023 1:21:25 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Article covering various approaches across Europe including some 'illegal' approaches where the country ignores international law

How EU states try to curtail migration
www.dw.com/en/how-eu-states-try-to-curtail-migration/a-66543041#

and an example of how one country is trying to create a more 'hostile environment' in order to ensure it becomes less attractive to migrants (although they have an issue with 'devolved polities)

Helsinki to become 'safe haven,' as government seeks to get strict on migration
www.infomigrants.net/en/post/51107/helsinki-to-become-safe-haven-as-government-seeks-to-get-strict-on-migration

As mentioned a few times then if any devolved polity in UK (eg Scotland, London or G.Manchester/Liverpool) want to put their hands up to accept more migrants then please do. I'm not sure that is the answer but it would be interesting to call out the 'virtue signalling' and see if NIMBYism becomes more important once the 'virtue signallers' are called out. 

I see that they still cant agree on the most recent idea :-


www.politico.eu/article/a-price-tag-to-reject-migrants-its-not-the-only-fight-threatening-a-reform-package/

Unless they ( and we) open up more "safe entry" routes this just gets bigger and bigger. And if we do that-there is a whole list of caveats-How many ?. From where? Via what location ? .....Detention centres ? .....how to manage the "excess" ?.....

All tricky questions to get a consensus on. I've been following the EU issues with interest in part as if/when they get their "mandatory solidarity" sorted out then we MIGHT be able to strike a deal on some form of "optional solidarity". However, if the EU doesn't have an internal deal then no way will France say "oui" to a returns deal.

Of note from your link is the annual cost that EU consider represents housing an 'irregular' immigrant for 1yr: €10-22k

Compare that to the cost in UK! We'd very happily pay €22k per return to France (although I appreciate that is not exactly how it would work even if they ever got something working and we then joined on an 'associate' basis). Quite a few folks grumbling about what we currently pay France but as the EU data shows then arrivals into EU have risen this year where as UK is about same as last year. Of course some of the increased arrivals on the Central Med route might end up trying to cross the channel later though. 

Also, given Meloni was elected to sort the immigration issue out and it has got worse then I am concerned about how drastic they will get in dealing with the issue, noting that land 'pushbacks' are already happening and some of the sea tragedies are pushing the boundary of a 'pushback' WRT to the international laws various countries should be following.

[Mr Poppy]

In UK: "Channel migrant arrivals hit 100,000 since 2018"
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/10/small-boats-number-of-migrants-crossing-channel-hits-100000/

In Italy: "Pressure on Meloni grows as Italy's interior ministry announces 100,000 migrant arrivals this year"
That's more than double the number recorded in the same period in 2022, and almost triple that of 2021
www.euronews.com/2023/08/17/pressure-on-meloni-grows-as-italys-interior-ministry-announces-100000-migrant-arrivals-thi

FdI VI and Meloni approval ratings are surprisingly still quite high but since they are already the most Far-Right/Anti-Immigration major party in Italy then the more worrying question is what will Meloni/FdI do to get a grip on 'irregular' immigration given the tougher measures Italy has adopted since Oct'22 elections have clearly failed to reduce 'irregular' immigration. Increased Sea 'pushbacks'?

Link is from Nov'22 but mentions an increasing tactic used by Greece and note also the picture of a Greek migrant centre (quite a bit posher than a 'free to come and go' Flotel/Hotel and perhaps justifiably called a 'prison')
theconversation.com/out-of-sight-out-of-mind-europes-increasing-pushback-against-migrants-193131

[Deleted]

The Atlantic Route claims a few more :-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66528273

[Mr Poppy]

From the Sun so it's mostly the 'old game' of taking a pop at the French but it does show that within EU some countries are adopting a very hostile environment approach and that the criminal gangs take notice and move the 'asylum shoppers' to less hostile countries (eg France and then on to UK)

"NO-GO ZONE Inside Belgium’s zero-tolerance approach to stop small boat migrant crossings using drones, cameras and patrols"
www.thesun.co.uk/news/23558134/belgians-stopped-illegal-migrants-small-boat-crossings/#

IMO competing to have the most hostile environment compared to one's neighbours is not a good approach. Surely the best approach is to make it clear to 'irregular' migrants that they are wasting their time/money and unnecessarily risking their life to try to enter UK/EU/US/etc illegally as they'll be deported to their home country or a 3rd party safe country if they enter UK/etc illegally. However, we most certainly need ID cards in UK as it's highly likely that instead of hoping to claim asylum in UK then a lot of the trafficking will go direct to the illegal economy (and article covers how Beligum prevent that).

[Deleted]

Aug 20, 2023 11:07:28 GMT Mr Poppy said:

From the Sun so it's mostly the 'old game' of taking a pop at the French but it does show that within EU some countries are adopting a very hostile environment approach and that the criminal gangs take notice and move the 'asylum shoppers' to less hostile countries (eg France and then on to UK)

"NO-GO ZONE Inside Belgium’s zero-tolerance approach to stop small boat migrant crossings using drones, cameras and patrols"
www.thesun.co.uk/news/23558134/belgians-stopped-illegal-migrants-small-boat-crossings/#

IMO competing to have the most hostile environment compared to one's neighbours is not a good approach. Surely the best approach is to make it clear to 'irregular' migrants that they are wasting their time/money and unnecessarily risking their life to try to enter UK/EU/US/etc illegally as they'll be deported to their home country or a 3rd party safe country if they enter UK/etc illegally. However, we most certainly need ID cards in UK as it's highly likely that instead of hoping to claim asylum in UK then a lot of the trafficking will go direct to the illegal economy (and article covers how Beligum prevent that).

Yes ID cards central to that Belgian success.

[Deleted]

"Tony Smith, the former director-general of the Home Office agency, said the small boats issue would continue while France continued to “interpret international law” in a way that meant they would not intercept vessels unless those on board were in trouble.

“Those on board are not seeking rescue, because . . . then they’ll be taken back to France,” he said.
“So there is evidence that people are resisting rescue until such a time as they reach our waters and of course we are duty bound — Border Force is duty bound — to rescue them. Once they’re on board a British vessel they will claim asylum and that’s been the business model for some time now.”
Smith told the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 there was evidence “that the migrants don’t want to be rescued”.
He added: “I hear stories of tactics where vulnerable people are being held over the side of vessels with a threat that, ‘We will scupper ourselves if you come near.’ ”

He said this meant that the French had decided to “escort the vessels until such a time as they get to the UK”.

Times

[leftieliberal]

An interesting article in Der Spiegel on Ötzi the iceman, whose mummified body was found in a glacier.
www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/oetzi-shows-his-true-colors-new-analysis-indicates-that-austrian-iceman-was-anatolian-a-475dfdbe-cdab-4407-8b38-95d927831c4c

It turns out that the skin colour of his mummified remains is pretty much the same as his skin colour was in life. This supports the finding that "Cheddar Man" also had dark skin. So all the people objecting to the immigration of dark-skinned people to Europe, need to understand that they are more similar to the colour of the earliest European homo sapiens before white-skinned people from the East arrived around 4900 years ago.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 24, 2023 7:36:58 GMT colin said:

"Tony Smith, the former director-general of the Home Office agency, said the small boats issue would continue while France continued to “interpret international law” in a way that meant they would not intercept vessels unless those on board were in trouble.

“Those on board are not seeking rescue, because . . . then they’ll be taken back to France,” he said.
“So there is evidence that people are resisting rescue until such a time as they reach our waters and of course we are duty bound — Border Force is duty bound — to rescue them. Once they’re on board a British vessel they will claim asylum and that’s been the business model for some time now.”
Smith told the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 there was evidence “that the migrants don’t want to be rescued”.
He added: “I hear stories of tactics where vulnerable people are being held over the side of vessels with a threat that, ‘We will scupper ourselves if you come near.’ ”

He said this meant that the French had decided to “escort the vessels until such a time as they get to the UK”.

Times

Quite a few articles in 'RoC' press about the money we're giving France. EG

MIGRANT CASH ROW Rishi Sunak ‘paying wrong people’ to stop Channel migrants by giving £500million to France
www.thesun.co.uk/news/23627442/rishi-sunak-small-boats-row-tim-loughton/

We don't know what would be happening if we hadn't given France extra money (ie it could be even more boats) but the 'hope' that France wanted to stop being a transit country and use all means possible to 'deter' the criminal gangs using France as a transit country does seem to have been a bit naive.

As per my previous post and some points in the above link then folks have noticed how effective Belgium have been at stopping Belgium being used as a transit country. 

The issue of "interpretation" relates to both sides of the discussion. Some of the 'pushbacks' being conducted from Southern/Eastern EU countries could be considered illegal but are ongoing and I don't see the Belgium approach being taken to the ECtHR. France's 'weak' approach means they are the transit country of choice and whilst it is their polity then it is right to question why are we paying them for their 'escort' service (ahead of the 'taxi+hotel' service we, currently, continue to provide).  

The criminal gangs and 'do bad' lawyers are not stupid people. They are running a business. They know where the 'weakest links' are (ie get to France, then escorted+taxi+hotel in UK, then get 'do bad' lawyers on your case for a 85%ish success rate) -  and they know which countries have the most hostile environments (eg Belgium) 

[Deleted]

"A total of 55 migrant boats reached Italy’s southernmost island, fewer than the 65 that landed on Friday, but each carrying more people. In total, 2,172 people arrived within 24 hours.

On Sunday morning, the island’s emergency reception centre at Imbriacola struggled to process some 4,200 migrants — more than five times its official capacity. Hundreds more were sent from Imbriacola to reception centres in the Sicilian towns of Porto Empedocle, Augusta and Comiso.
Filippo Romano, the island’s chief official, implored the Italian government to stop charity boats bringing rescued migrants to its ports. “Insisting on arrivals at Lampedusa at this time is not humane,” he said. “We are set up for 800 and can [take] a maximum of 1,500, but over 2,000 is problematic.”
The migrants are mainly from Tunisia and Libya, and smugglers are taking advantage of favourable weather to make the crossings, according to the Italian authorities."

"Charles-Ange Ginésy, the centre-right president of the regional council of the Alpes-Maritimes in southeastern France, has written to Macron warning of the “explosive situation” on the border."
"Ginésy said there was a surge in arrivals of unaccompanied children, leaving social services unable to cope. They have taken charge of more than 4,300 unaccompanied minors so far this year, a 40 per cent increase on the same period last year, he said.
Most are from Guinea, Ivory Coast, Sudan, Tunisia and other African countries.
“I am appealing to the state once again not to leave the Alpes-Maritimes to its fate, after months of warnings,” Ginésy wrote in a letter circulated to French media. “I am saying: stop.”

More than 25,000 migrants have been turned back at the border or arrested in the Alpes-Maritimes since January, an increase of 22 per cent compared with the same period last year. According to the EU’s border agency Frontex, the number detected crossing the Mediterranean to Italy has more than doubled this year to almost 90,000."



"He ( Macron) has acknowledged, however, that the situation is “untenable” and he has promised “to reduce immigration significantly, starting with illegal immigration”.
Macron, who needs the support of opposition parties to pass legislation in parliament, has been trying to convince the centre-right party, the Republicans, to back his ideas on immigration, but they are agitating for tougher measures."

Times
from-"Do something to halt migrants, plead coastal towns on Med"

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 28, 2023 8:36:05 GMT colin said:

"A total of 55 migrant boats reached Italy’s southernmost island, fewer than the 65 that landed on Friday, but each carrying more people. In total, 2,172 people arrived within 24 hours...

Meloni has tried to crack down on the 'taxi'* service but that has just meant the 'irregular immigrants' try to make the entire journey in their own boat rather than expect to be picked up midway. It was relatively easy to reduce the 'taxi' service but what does Meloni do next given she is clearly failing to control her country's borders? 

NB Some of the flow into Italy will eventually get into France and then to the channel. I'm not sure how long the 'lag' takes but given UK is one of the least 'hostile' endpoints and has 'do bad' lawyers that will try to ensure 85% of cases are approved then we should expect a lot more illegal immigrants making channel crossings later this year. 

* Some 'taxis' still operate but with reduced capacity and various other restrictions. This chaps 'simple policy' is basically 'let everyone in' but he doesn't state a number or the implications of what 'let everyone in' would mean to a country like Italy that has a huge amount of problems already. So IMO he means 'naive' rather than 'simple'. Anyway he does cover some of the ways Meloni tried to make it harder.

I work on a migrant rescue ship – believe me when I say there is a simple solution to this crisis
inews.co.uk/opinion/work-migrant-rescue-ship-believe-simple-solution-crisis-2570001

PS Braverman muting 'tags' is at best a sticking plaster on a symptom that won't have any impact on the problem. I've still no idea why they aren't considering ID cards (which would IMO be a much easier 'sell' to the public as everyone would need to have one). If you 'tag' an illegal immigrant then you still have to house them.. although without space to house them...
She needs to actually deal with the problem not just come up with ever more divisive 'gimmicks'. Patience is running out! 

[Deleted]

Aug 28, 2023 10:07:26 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Aug 28, 2023 8:36:05 GMT colin said:

 Patience is running out! 

I wonder at what point "patience" running out starts to produce political change of a srious nature ?


Meanwhile :-


 www.novinite.com/articles/221112/Frontex+reported+Record+Levels+of+Illegal+Migration

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 28, 2023 15:17:02 GMT colin said:

Aug 28, 2023 10:07:26 GMT Mr Poppy said:

I wonder at what point "patience" running out starts to produce political change of a srious nature ?


Meanwhile :-


 www.novinite.com/articles/221112/Frontex+reported+Record+Levels+of+Illegal+Migration

I note they are using the word 'illegal' rather than 'irregular' now. It does seem to be a particular problem for Italy (via the 'central med' route) as

"The agency notes a decrease in attempts to cross the Western Balkans route, which is the second most popular... All other routes also reported a reduction in attempted illegal crossings, added Frontex."

As with UK's 'concern' that the money we're giving France isn't having much effect then the Libya/Tunisia deals don't seem to be doing anything. Meloni has tried to make it more difficult for the 'taxi' service but numbers are up massively. There is no one further right/anti-immigration than Meloni and FdI - yet! 

As well as 'when' then the concern is 'what next' once patience finally runs out. Arguably some 'sea' pushbacks have already occurred (eg Greece). I would not be surprised if Italy stop boats landing on their shores but the boats barely make the journey one-way...

I'm not saying 'deporting' to somewhere like Rwanda would be a panacea but looking at what Italy has done and how that isn't working then surely we need to see if Rwanda would be a deterrent and reduce the flow (as well as ID cards given the totally foreseeable issue of the boats still coming - but no longer relying on Border Force 'taxi' service and UK taxpayer funded hotel accommodation). Pretty sure plenty of EU countries would copy Rwanda scheme IF/when it ever gets going and that MIGHT mean the ECtHR (which IMO has a 'political bias') decide to interpret the ECHR in a way that deems that approach legal - or we achieve a tweak to the ECHR to make it legal. Worst case we leave.

[Mr Poppy]

The 'sea' issues such as Messenia migrant boat disaster* receive quite a bit of press but an article covering some worrying trends on the 'land' in Greece as vigilante groups 'protect' their border.  

Migrant hunters in Greece show off captured 'trophies' after wildfire season
www.euronews.com/2023/08/30/migrant-hunters-in-greece-show-off-captured-trophies-after-wildfire-season#

* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Messenia_migrant_boat_disaster

[Deleted]

Aug 30, 2023 7:27:57 GMT Mr Poppy said:

The 'sea' issues such as Messenia migrant boat disaster* receive quite a bit of press but an article covering some worrying trends on the 'land' in Greece as vigilante groups 'protect' their border.  

Migrant hunters in Greece show off captured 'trophies' after wildfire season
www.euronews.com/2023/08/30/migrant-hunters-in-greece-show-off-captured-trophies-after-wildfire-season#

* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Messenia_migrant_boat_disaster

I suppose we should thank geology & glaciology that we dont have a land problem *

This issue is going to continue testing the ability of European countries to find a common approach to dealing with it. And must surely be a factor in political change.

And they will keep coming because its shit where they come from.

It sometimes occurs to me that KS is going to represent  the bastion  of European LOC politics before long . Does he ever think , i wonder, about having had a positive Rejoin platform based on saving Social Democracy in Europe ?

*
www.imperial.ac.uk/earth-science/research/research-groups/geodynamics/themes/seafloor-imaging/quaternary-landscapes/flood/#:~:text=Our%20work%20revealed%20spectacular%20images,of%20Britain%20from%20continental%20Europe.

[Mr Poppy]

Aug 30, 2023 11:53:02 GMT colin said:

Aug 30, 2023 7:27:57 GMT Mr Poppy said:

The 'sea' issues such as Messenia migrant boat disaster* receive quite a bit of press but an article covering some worrying trends on the 'land' in Greece as vigilante groups 'protect' their border.  

Migrant hunters in Greece show off captured 'trophies' after wildfire season
www.euronews.com/2023/08/30/migrant-hunters-in-greece-show-off-captured-trophies-after-wildfire-season#

* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Messenia_migrant_boat_disaster

I suppose we should thank geology & glaciology that we dont have a land problem *

This issue is going to continue testing the ability of European countries to find a common approach to dealing with it. And must surely be a factor in political change.

And they will keep coming because its shit where they come from.

It sometimes occurs to me that KS is going to represent  the bastion  of European LOC politics before long . Does he ever think , i wonder, about having had a positive Rejoin platform based on saving Social Democracy in Europe ?

*
www.imperial.ac.uk/earth-science/research/research-groups/geodynamics/themes/seafloor-imaging/quaternary-landscapes/flood/#:~:text=Our%20work%20revealed%20spectacular%20images,of%20Britain%20from%20continental%20Europe.

Rejoin in order to save Europe from itself?? IIRC that was the Heseltine reason for backing Remain and he's not giving up the fight

www.europeanmovement.co.uk/michael_heseltine_on_bringing_the_pro_eu_movement_together

Social Democrats are the largest party in the Danish coalition govt but have a strict view on immigration - a significant reason why they stayed as the largest party.

Unlike the 1930-40s then whatever happens in continental Europe is v.unlikely to cause a problem for UK or rWorld. It would help UK is they could better control their borders, although I'm not that enthusiastic about some of the methods. As a cross over from the main thread then whilst there are some benefits from EUrope moving to the right/anti-immigration then hopefully not too far!

A sea border doesn't stop the problem (eg the Senegal to Canary Islands route) and arguably you can 'get away with' land border pushbacks, vigilantes, etc easier than when the issue is as sea - although Greece seem to be moving to extreme measures on both land and sea and both domestically and internationally there is little raising of the eyebrows, let alone ECtHR cases or other legal action against what are clear breaches of ECHR and other laws. 



 

[Mr Poppy]

We don't have portals to parallel universes but it does appear some of the money we're throwing at France to sort out the illegal immigration problem is having an effect. France is not our polity but they could maybe take a look at the measures that Belgium use in order to make this country less appealing as a transit country.

Channel migrants confront tighter French coast patrols
www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230902-channel-migrants-confront-tighter-french-coast-patrols

[Mr Poppy]

Posting on the Issue Specific thread so that all relevant polling is in one easy to (re)find place:

Sept 18, 2023 13:37:28 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Ipsos's regular update on views concerning Immigration, Sep'23. One snippet:

"..views are split and often NUANCED. For example, Britons also continue to support migration for specific sectors of work (especially health and social care), while control over who comes in is often as, if not more, important as the total numbers"
(emphasis added)

www.ipsos.com/en-uk/immigration-tracker-september-2023

[Mr Poppy]

Posted on main thread but also posting on the Issue Specific thread so people can easily find it and reread it (or read for the first time).

In case anyone is unclear that the law changed, then see the explainer below. Lots of legal jargon but paying a criminal gang to enter the UK (from a safe country) via a 'Small Boat' is now 'illegal'. A valid criticism of Braverman would be that she put the cart before the horse (ie changed the law but does not yet have the means with which to implement it: 3rd country processing of claims)

EXPLAINER: Illegal Migration Act 2023
ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/illegal-migration-act-2023/#

[birdseye]

Nov 22, 2022 12:01:25 GMT colin said:

Nov 22, 2022 11:42:54 GMT Mr Poppy said:

The article that colin mentioned on the main thread. 

"Don’t make terrifying dinghy crossing, deported Albanian migrant warns

"urged his fellow countrymen not to make the same journey, warning that he had faced “an unimaginable terror” which left him in thousands of pounds of debt... said Albanians trying to travel to the UK were better off trying to get a visa to come here legally"

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dont-make-terrifying-dinghy-crossing-deported-albanian-migrant-warns-qk55ff9b7

I have no issue with some more 'flex' in the 'flexible points based immigration policy' (and nor does Sir Keir, see his speech to CBI). IMO we could tackle both issues at the same time (ie less illegal immigration and more legal immigration) but Rishi seems focussed more on the former - even though he/Braverman are still mostly talking about it rather than doing something about it. 

Agreed. They should be solved together.

You are happy with 600k migrants pa - increased by 25% on the previous year?

[Deleted]

Sept 29, 2023 16:45:11 GMT birdseye said:

Nov 22, 2022 12:01:25 GMT colin said:

Agreed. They should be solved together.

You are happy with 600k migrants pa - increased by 25% on the previous year?

175k of that was the refugees from Ukraine & HK.  360k was for study purposes.

[birdseye]

Unsure how many of eiher category will ever go home. But that said 600k is only 1% of the existing population of the UK.

I wonder how many come as visitors and settle here.

[Deleted]

Sept 30, 2023 14:02:01 GMT birdseye said:

Unsure how many of eiher category will ever go home. But that said 600k is only 1% of the existing population of the UK.

I wonder how many come as visitors and settle here.

I guess most Ukrainians cant wait to go home.

The HKers have no home to go to now. Anyway we dont want them to go home. By and large they are self sufficient, bright, intelligent, entrepreneurial folk. In time they will make a significant contribution to UK.

[Mr Poppy]

Not our polity but interesting to see what is happening in Germany IMO and lots of polling in the below article that is clearly seeing a 'change' in approach from the German govt. SPD might want to look to Denmark to see how a 'Centre-Left' govt can avoid allowing Right/Far-Right parties to gain power (ie ensure they are the ones who crack down on illegal immigration rather than be kicked out and allow Right/Far-Right parties into power as has happened in Sweden, Italy and elsewhere) 

Germany: Growing dissatisfaction with migration policy
www.dw.com/en/germany-growing-dissatisfaction-with-migration-policy/a-66961728

[Mr Poppy]

Worrying...

Tunisia rejects EU financial aid, casting doubt on an immigration deal
uk.news.yahoo.com/tunisia-rejects-eu-financial-aid-235603634.html

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 5, 2023 14:46:21 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Oct 5, 2023 10:24:12 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Polling on immigration shows most people think CON are doing a crap job of getting it under control and Braverman can't blame everyone else when she is the one failing to do her job. 

The irony is that if you are going to be outside a trade block like the EU, (1) then it kind of helps to have more immigration to give more economic clout. On the old board, remember posting data about how we were set to overtake Germany in population circa 2050 - at current elevated rates might be even sooner?

(2) Is there polling on how much might attitude to immigration change if it’s more the higher-earning immigration rather than the low-waged?

(1) In your opinion perhaps. Not in my opinion. See the Larry Elliott view that IIRC you mentioned on the main thread and previous discussion on 'automation', 'high wage economy', GDP/capita being a better metric than straight GDP, etc
www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/10/post-brexit-shift-in-immigration-may-mean-higher-wages-and-more-self-sufficient-uk-economy-sunak-trade-india

(2) Yes. I've posted it many times - easier to find on the specific issue thread but, yes, folks have a 'nuanced' view on immigration (eg want high earners, nurses, etc but don't want illegal immigrants). If you can't find it on this thread try suitable search terms on google.

[Mr Poppy]

Move to immigration thread so avoid needing to repeat all the below on the main thread in the future. I've corrected some typos in my post, improved the formatting and adding some links. I'll also once again answer: "what counts as “illegal”.."

Oct 12, 2023 12:04:08 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Oct 12, 2023 10:19:17 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Indeed. That is one the great benefits of the Issue Specific threads!

OK. Housing and Immigration are both 'hot topics' with polling implications and they do somewhat overlap so it is fair to discuss party policies, polling implications, etc on the main thread.

I'll answer your questions, giving my opinion provide all the necessary links once again, all in one place, to save people needing to continually repost them. 

Q1: Is Ukrainian immigration a one-off? Will there be more like it?
A: Hopefully. I note signs of 'Ukraine refugee fatigue' in places that took a lot more in (eg Poland) which feels reminiscent of Germany taking in a load of Syrian refugees in the past. It is up to elected HMG to offer such schemes and since we can't 'let everyone in' and all the woes of the World are not our problem then in the future I expect those numbers will be a lot less than 114,000. Also note many of those will hopefully return home at some point and hence will become a '-ve' number in the future

Q2: We already had the Hong Kong immigration?
A: Yes, past tense. Some of that was pre 2022 but in 2022 it was 52,000 including other BN(O). Most of those will probably stay proper long-term rather than just the 12mths to trigger being counted (ie unlikely to be a -ve flow in the future)

Q3: Then we have had a lot through the visa scheme, reoriented towards higher earning professionals.
A: Yes, we have a 'points based immigration scheme' to attract the workers we NEED in certain professions. If you read the ONS data you'll see that a lot of the work visas are for healthcare workers. Also check the polling that shows folks have a nuanced view on immigration (ie approve of immigration for healthcare, high earners). Some of that will obviously be linked to the economic cycle and some might return home at a future date (eg when their work visa is not renewed). I did mention 'post Covid bounce back' as being a 'one-off' contributor to 2022 data

(Q4): Student Visas
A: Should IMO be considered separately. For the issue of those who enter 'legally' (eg on a student visa) and then become 'illegal' by overstaying a visa then IMO we need ID cards and a much harder crack-down (noting the fines for housing illegal immigrants recently went up significantly)

Q5: Paraphrase "Family members and immigration feeding more immigration"
A: We need less of that IMO and have taken some steps already. I don't see why immigration should feed more immigration. The immigration we NEED (eg work visas and foreign students) are young/working with reduced access to benefits and paying higher NHS charges so provide a net contribution to society and tax revenue. People bringing over their elderly parents who lived quite happily at home before their kids came to UK should be curtailed (IMO) and best not to get into a tangent about 'arranged marriages' etc

Additional Q6: How many genuine asylum seekers?
A: Not fully included in ONS data but AFTER we've 'Stopped the boats' and dealt with the backlog in UK and got housing sorted for British people (guess at least 5yrs) then about 20k/yr is a number I think we could comfortably integrate without causing housing or other issues.

Summary: Overall the immigration we NEED is the kind that provides a +ve boost to society (ie not only services it's own need but net helps those already here: filling certain jobs whilst we train up our own; providing net tax revenue; etc). IMO that should be an amount that roughly offsets dealing birth rates to create a stable population size but will jump around a bit - notably with the ups+downs of the economic cycle.

I respect that others will disagree and note RUK's view (and likes of many Far-Right parties in EUrope) is much harsher than my view

NB Note all of your Qs weren't actually Qs. Some were points but lets not be pedantic about that. IMO is important to split out the 'types' of immigration. 

PS A 'healthier' population will reduce healthcare demand. Healthcare demands from smoking were already declining but the BIG one that is a trend that we need to reverse is obesity (which has been discussed many times before). There is a lot that HMG could and should do to reduce obesity. Medical Assistance in Dying is another tangent but IMO we should copy Canada's approach to that (not sure of the economic impact but it would obviously be morally and economically a good idea)

Thanks for your reply Trev. Tbh, I’m not very up on the “illegal immigration” thing, including what counts as “illegal”..

You're welcome.

Q6: What counts as “illegal” (immigrant)?
A: Two types:
i/ Those who enter 'illegally':  www.gov.uk/government/collections/illegal-migration-bill
ii/ Those who enter legally (eg student/work visa) but overstay their visa and then become 'illegal' (see Q4)

Links for info in Q1-5:
Q1-2: 2022 data for Ukraine, HK+BN(O):
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2022
Q4: "Tripling of fines for those supporting illegal migrants"
www.gov.uk/government/news/tripling-of-fines-for-those-supporting-illegal-migrants
Q5: Changes to student visa route will reduce net migration
www.gov.uk/government/news/changes-to-student-visa-route-will-reduce-net-migration
and Dependent family members in work routes
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/651c1b7fe4e658001459d89f/Dependent+family+members+in+work+routes.pdf

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Oct 12, 2023 18:16:37 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Move to immigration thread so avoid needing to repeat all the below on the main thread in the future. I've corrected some typos in my post, improved the formatting and adding some links. I'll also once again answer: "what counts as “illegal”.."

Oct 12, 2023 12:04:08 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Thanks for your reply Trev. Tbh, I’m not very up on the “illegal immigration” thing, including what counts as “illegal”..

Indeed. That is one the great benefits of the Issue Specific threads!

OK. Housing and Immigration are both 'hot topics' with polling implications and they do somewhat overlap so it is fair to discuss party policies, polling implications, etc on the main thread.

I'll answer your questions, giving my opinion provide all the necessary links once again, all in one place, to save people needing to continually repost them.

Q1: Is Ukrainian immigration a one-off? Will there be more like it?
A: Hopefully. I note signs of 'Ukraine refugee fatigue' in places that took a lot more in (eg Poland) which feels reminiscent of Germany taking in a load of Syrian refugees in the past. It is up to elected HMG to offer such schemes and since we can't 'let everyone in' and all the woes of the World are not our problem then in the future I expect those numbers will be a lot less than 114,000. Also note many of those will hopefully return home at some point and hence will become a '-ve' number in the future

Q2: We already had the Hong Kong immigration?
A: Yes, past tense. Some of that was pre 2022 but in 2022 it was 52,000 including other BN(O). Most of those will probably stay proper long-term rather than just the 12mths to trigger being counted (ie unlikely to be a -ve flow in the future)

Q3: Then we have had a lot through the visa scheme, reoriented towards higher earning professionals.
A: Yes, we have a 'points based immigration scheme' to attract the workers we NEED in certain professions. If you read the ONS data you'll see that a lot of the work visas are for healthcare workers. Also check the polling that shows folks have a nuanced view on immigration (ie approve of immigration for healthcare, high earners). Some of that will obviously be linked to the economic cycle and some might return home at a future date (eg when their work visa is not renewed). I did mention 'post Covid bounce back' as being a 'one-off' contributor to 2022 data

(Q4): Student Visas
A: Should IMO be considered separately. For the issue of those who enter 'legally' (eg on a student visa) and then become 'illegal' by overstaying a visa then IMO we need ID cards and a much harder crack-down (noting the fines for housing illegal immigrants recently went up significantly)

Q5: Paraphrase "Family members and immigration feeding more immigration"
A: We need less of that IMO and have taken some steps already. I don't see why immigration should feed more immigration. The immigration we NEED (eg work visas and foreign students) are young/working with reduced access to benefits and paying higher NHS charges so provide a net contribution to society and tax revenue. People bringing over their elderly parents who lived quite happily at home before their kids came to UK should be curtailed (IMO) and best not to get into a tangent about 'arranged marriages' etc

Additional Q6: How many genuine asylum seekers?
A: Not fully included in ONS data but AFTER we've 'Stopped the boats' and dealt with the backlog in UK and got housing sorted for British people (guess at least 5yrs) then about 20k/yr is a number I think we could comfortably integrate without causing housing or other issues.

Summary: Overall the immigration we NEED is the kind that provides a +ve boost to society (ie not only services it's own need but net helps those already here: filling certain jobs whilst we train up our own; providing net tax revenue; etc). IMO that should be an amount that roughly offsets dealing birth rates to create a stable population size but will jump around a bit - notably with the ups+downs of the economic cycle.

I respect that others will disagree and note RUK's view (and likes of many Far-Right parties in EUrope) is much harsher than my view

NB Note all of your Qs weren't actually Qs. Some were points but lets not be pedantic about that. IMO is important to split out the 'types' of immigration.

PS A 'healthier' population will reduce healthcare demand. Healthcare demands from smoking were already declining but the BIG one that is a trend that we need to reverse is obesity (which has been discussed many times before). There is a lot that HMG could and should do to reduce obesity. Medical Assistance in Dying is another tangent but IMO we should copy Canada's approach to that (not sure of the economic impact but it would obviously be morally and economically a good idea)
welcome.

Q6: What counts as “illegal” (immigrant)?
A: Two types:
i/ Those who enter 'illegally':  www.gov.uk/government/collections/illegal-migration-bill
ii/ Those who enter legally (eg student/work visa) but overstay their visa and then become 'illegal' (see Q4)

Links for info in Q1-5:
Q1-2: 2022 data for Ukraine, HK+BN(O):
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingdecember2022
Q4: "Tripling of fines for those supporting illegal migrants"
www.gov.uk/government/news/tripling-of-fines-for-those-supporting-illegal-migrants
Q5: Changes to student visa route will reduce net migration
www.gov.uk/government/news/changes-to-student-visa-route-will-reduce-net-migration
and Dependent family members in work routes
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/651c1b7fe4e658001459d89f/Dependent+family+members+in+work+routes.pdf

I replied in the main thread with limits you hadn’t addressed: You haven’t shown how people needing to escape war or oppression or climate change etc. will stop, nor addressed the issue of immigrants needing services leading to more immigration, nor the problem that governments may want more immigration anyway.

[Mr Poppy]

Oct 13, 2023 5:50:41 GMT Mr Poppy said:

Oct 12, 2023 19:56:00 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

I checked your revised reply and it didn’t deal with the points I highlighted: (1) you haven’t put an end to people needing to move in future due to war, repression or climate change, (2) you haven’t figured out a way for immigrants not to need additional services, nor (3) addressed the issue that maybe our political class might like quite a lot of immigration (and maybe people do too, if it isn’t directly competing with them). 

Link for my previous reply covering a lot of points you already needed me to explain to you (again in many cases):
ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/105301/thread

(1) Which bit of "we can't 'let everyone in' and all the woes of the World are not our problem" was hard for you to understand? We can do some stuff (eg tech to improve not just climate change in UK but help the other 99% of the planet) and 'Parliament is sovereign' (ie the extent to which we offer future schemes to let more people into UK, people we choose to enter, is up to our elected govt - not people smugglers). All covered previously

(2) First people need to understand 'dependency ratio' and adjust it to actual workers. Below is ILLUSTRATIVE 'stable equilibrium' but rough numbers noting they are 'averages' (eg some workers (eg nurse) support a lot more than +1 but others (eg highly paid software engineer) will instead provide a lot of tax revenue and help towards future improvements)

- 35million workers can support a total population of 70million people
- 1 immigrant worker can hence support themselves +1 'dependent'

Hence the 'type' of immigrant is important and for a poor country then 1 rich 'dependent' (eg retiree) can create 2+ jobs for poor native unemployed people.
However, in a rich country then an immigrant nurse can fill a vacancy we need to support more old people, etc... Ideally we eventually train our own nurses rather than poach them from poor countries but we're currently not in equilibrium so should make adjustments to try to get there (see 'Points Based Immigration' system and sector vacancy lists) 

NB With automation and the other points mentioned about improved productivity then hopefully in the near future we can get to the point where 30million workers can support 40million dependents for the same 70million population...

(3) Parliament is sovereign and we elect our parliament. Blair and other neoliberals want higher immigration and in ancient times 'Kings' wanted a growing population as there was no shortage or water, arable land, animals to hunt and the workforce could become soldiers to fight other Kings. Today, we are killing our Planet and whilst we can't control the birth rate elsewhere or people killing each other elsewhere then we can stabilise the UK 'eco-system'. Charity and good governance begins at home - with the politicians we elect. 

PS I'll repost this on the Immigration thread as the other reason for Issue Specific threads is to avoid people needing to repeat themselves because someone is too f*ing lazy to think for themselves, find their own sources or remember that we've been over most of this stuff many times before. 

[Mr Poppy]

I'll expand on my previous point with an example of the kinds of immigration we don't want: low skilled workers driving down wages and reducing the incentive for businesses to invest in either skills training or automation.

A neoliberal short-termist govt (eg Blair) will be OK with that because in the short-term it allows a low productivity country to compete via lower wages. Hopefully screamingly obvious that is a really crap long-term approach unless it is a race to the bottom, levelling down, until British workers are competing against the lowest paid workers in the entire World.

A 'scarcity' of workers forces businesses to invest in skills training and automation - obviously!

(of course too much scarcity in certain sectors is not great and hence why I stated we do need some immigration to fill vacancies in specific sectors - ideally only until we can train up our native workforce, or automate some of those jobs, or improve our nation's health, etc)

I'll also post rough numbers of what IMO would be a 'long-term' equilibrium state for UK (ONS data being for England and Wales so folks can adjust if they want)

Births: +600k/yr
Immigration: +100k/yr
Deaths: -700k/yr

= stable population