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Post by jib on Sept 30, 2022 18:28:03 GMT
Agree. Given that we're 2/3rds of the way through this Parliament, I can't see that this is anything than a prospectus for a post 2024 Tory Government. Nevertheless, it is ambitious and will challenge Labour to show how they really will promote growth if they win. You still expect a post 2024 Tory Government? Short answer as things stand; no! However, it's hard to imagine things can get worse for the Tories, and Labour need to maintain an iron discipline into 2024. |
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Post by jayblanc on Sept 30, 2022 18:46:27 GMT
I expect that Truss will make it a confidence motion and/or threaten those who rebel with expulsion from the party. What the end result of that would be... I can not speculate beyond thinking that Truss's megalomania will make her act irrationally and against her own interests if she feels threatened. |
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Post by alec on Sept 30, 2022 18:52:33 GMT
hireton - absolutely agree with your assessment of the fracking planning issues. Truss isn't doing this to help communities, that's for sure.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 18:54:26 GMT
I expect that Truss will make it a confidence motion and/or threaten those who rebel with expulsion from the party. What the end result of that would be... I can not speculate beyond thinking that Truss's megalomania will make her act irrationally and against her own interests if she feels threatened. given current polling it's quite possible that they might think they have nothing to lose by having the whip removed |
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Post by graham on Sept 30, 2022 19:18:48 GMT
I expect that Truss will make it a confidence motion and/or threaten those who rebel with expulsion from the party. What the end result of that would be... I can not speculate beyond thinking that Truss's megalomania will make her act irrationally and against her own interests if she feels threatened. given current polling it's quite possible that they might think they have nothing to lose by having the whip removed Indeed - and if 60 or 70 Tories threaten to rebel , she would be signing her own death warrant by removing the Whip! |
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Post by EmCat on Sept 30, 2022 19:24:39 GMT
My point is that although Kwarteng may have precipitated this crisis now, it was certain to happen anyway before the next election. By bringing it forward he stands more chance the UK will be in the recovering phase than the worsening phase by the time of that election. And thus this has been a good move for their election chances. How likely is that? The proposed Income Tax changes do not apply until April 2023 - just 18 months before the latest likely election date. Moreover four years of economic recovery post the ERM crisis in Autumn 1992 did little to boost Tory fortunes in May 1997. "I have a plan!" "Is it cunning like a fox? " "Er....no" "Then why are we doing it?" "It's the only plan we've got!" The "trash everything now, so it's only half-trashed later" plan is fairly unlikely to work, but in the absence of anything else, then you give it a shot |
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Post by EmCat on Sept 30, 2022 19:26:40 GMT
You have to worry about the mental health of the 18% in the latest poll who think Truss is doing a good job! As well as the "Always Blue", there may also be some in the "Doing a good job... for other parties", "Doing a good job of crashing the country" and "Doing a good job of distracting from the other laws recently enacted |
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Post by davwel on Sept 30, 2022 19:31:55 GMT
The D.Tel is proclaiming that it has been the best week for the pound since 2020.
This farRight paper is making the most of the rebound, but avoids pointing out that the 4-day recent rise is only half as great as the 4-day drop precipitated by the reckless budget.
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Post by Danny on Sept 30, 2022 19:34:32 GMT
People, just not on here but in the media generally, sometimes seem to treat the Conservatives as an unbeatable electoral machine that will always rise from the grave and inevitably consign the collective opposition to another demoralising defeat. Another way to look at this is that without assistance from another party, con was unable to win enough seats to govern for the last 25 years. Variously libs, ukippers and dup. Without the cause of brexit which was already coming into play in 2010 they could not have ruled, and even if they had it would have been a very different party. Well, there is now a majority to rejoin which could extend the fight but brexiteers must be wondering what the hell they voted for. |
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Post by hireton on Sept 30, 2022 19:46:14 GMT
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Post by peterbell on Sept 30, 2022 19:54:02 GMT
Seen outside a house in Greenwich a couple of days ago. Who do you think could live there.  Attachment Deleted |
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Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2022 20:09:38 GMT
You have to worry about the mental health of the 18% in the latest poll who think Truss is doing a good job! As well as the "Always Blue", there may also be some in the "Doing a good job... for other parties", "Doing a good job of crashing the country" and "Doing a good job of distracting from the other laws recently enacted Yes, until recently I always answered the question whether Starmer was doing a good job as leader of the Labour Party as 'Yes' because it looked as though he would make it easier for Labour to lose next time. |
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Post by Danny on Sept 30, 2022 20:11:55 GMT
How likely is that? The proposed Income Tax changes do not apply until April 2023 - just 18 months before the latest likely election date. Moreover four years of economic recovery post the ERM crisis in Autumn 1992 did little to boost Tory fortunes in May 1997. "I have a plan!" "Is it cunning like a fox? " "Er....no" "Then why are we doing it?" "It's the only plan we've got!" The "trash everything now, so it's only half-trashed later" plan is fairly unlikely to work, but in the absence of anything else, then you give it a shot Except that the current crisis is significantly because of energy prices. If they go back to anything like normal then inflation wil head down. If china gets its economy together and trade resumes, then again prices fall. Granted can't do anything about having left the EU, but a rising tide floats all boats and a recovering world economy would dramatically improve the uk situation. I'd say it's odds on this will happen before the next election. It's just a question of how much. When it does, Kwarteng will claim his unorthodox approach was the reason and only he could have done it. Brexit only happened because voters believed lies told by politicians. |
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Post by jayblanc on Sept 30, 2022 20:19:11 GMT
given current polling it's quite possible that they might think they have nothing to lose by having the whip removed Indeed - and if 60 or 70 Tories threaten to rebel , she would be signing her own death warrant by removing the Whip! If it's made a confidence vote, only 36 are needed to end the government. If instead she suspends more than 36 members of her party, then the Government becomes a minority in the House, and while she'll survive as MP in the immediate sense, it would only be a matter of time till a confidence vote put an end to Government. I doubt that any NI Unionists would support Truss without making demands worse than those of the 36. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 30, 2022 20:37:04 GMT
given current polling it's quite possible that they might think they have nothing to lose by having the whip removed Indeed - and if 60 or 70 Tories threaten to rebel , she would be signing her own death warrant by removing the Whip! Worth remembering that Major did actually remove the whip from enough Tory MPs to make his government into a minority - the Maastricht rebels. Didn't result in any early GE. |
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Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2022 20:43:26 GMT
Except that the current crisis is significantly because of energy prices. If they go back to anything like normal then inflation wil head down. If china gets its economy together and trade resumes, then again prices fall. Granted can't do anything about having left the EU, but a rising tide floats all boats and a recovering world economy would dramatically improve the uk situation. I'd say it's odds on this will happen before the next election. It's just a question of how much. When it does, Kwarteng will claim his unorthodox approach was the reason and only he could have done it. Brexit only happened because voters believed lies told by politicians. I would have given a like but you spoilt it by your last sentence. Brexit only happened because politicians of all main parties were guilty of suppressing opposition to the EU for decades and the British people (or English and Welsh anyway) were tired of being slaves to a foreign oppressor (IMO). |
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Post by alec on Sept 30, 2022 20:48:30 GMT
hireton - regarding mass scale investment zones, one has to hope that Liz Truss did actually read all those trade agreements she photocopied, in particular the sections on subsidies and level playing field provisions. Given the polls, Labour could quite effectively scupper abuse of the public purse in this way by declaring that on day 1, all investment zones will be abolished, or even just reviewed. That would not encourage firms to waste taxpayers money utilising them.
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Post by RAF on Sept 30, 2022 20:54:02 GMT
Indeed - and if 60 or 70 Tories threaten to rebel , she would be signing her own death warrant by removing the Whip! Worth remembering that Major did actually remove the whip from enough Tory MPs to make his government into a minority - the Maastricht rebels. Didn't result in any early GE. It didn't but there were very few of them, about 8 if my memory serves me well? Enough to drive Major's Government into minority status but not enough to end party discipline. He did survive one parliamentary confidence vote but that was it. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 30, 2022 20:57:03 GMT
Since there has been a lot of speculation about swing-back, here is an early taste of my number crunching today. Every post-war government has enjoyed some sort of recovery from its nadir, so swing back is an established part of our system. I have done the numbers for every parliament comparing the actual GE result with both the average opposition lead in the months they led and also the highest opposition lead. I will publish in full tomorrow (needs a proper write up) but the average of the recoveries is as follows (these are changes not swings): Average government recovery from worst position +19%, average recovery from mean opposition lead +10.1%.
The first of those figures is reduced by those parliaments where the government never fell far behind. So looking at only those where the government got 20% or more behind at least once, the recovery then averages 22.6%. Since the Conservative's worst for this parliament is 33% behind, past history would suggest a potential Labour lead at the GE of 33.0-22.6 = 10.4%
However - the most interesting part - the six governments that found themselves 20%+ behind in the polls were all out of office after the next GE. I appreciate history can be rewritten but everything suggests the current depths the Tories are in have always proved too large to escape in the 1945-2019 period.
More tomorrow when I write it up.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 30, 2022 21:01:24 GMT
hireton - regarding mass scale investment zones, one has to hope that Liz Truss did actually read all those trade agreements she photocopied, in particular the sections on subsidies and level playing field provisions. Given the polls, Labour could quite effectively scupper abuse of the public purse in this way by declaring that on day 1, all investment zones will be abolished, or even just reviewed. That would not encourage firms to waste taxpayers money utilising them. I was thinking that, but the problem might be if binding legal contracts are signed. Presumably these would have to be bought out (think of the PFI albatross for example). One option would be to request that Labour councils/Mayors boycott the idea and perhaps other opposition parties could do the same. Try and strangle it at birth. |
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Post by alec on Sept 30, 2022 21:02:48 GMT
pjw1961 - "More tomorrow when I write it up." Would be interesting to see how the recovery periods from nadir to subsequent GE correlate with GDP growth, or an alternative economic metric. As I see it, Truss' problem (apart from being Liz Truss) is that she has hit a very deep trough, but needs to climb out of that against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation. Most governments in the past have had the wit to get the bad news done early in the parliament, to hit the depths of unpopularity early and then work through a recovery before facing the electorate again. The unique ability of Truss has been to engineer a slump in the last year and a half. That takes pure genius.
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Post by alec on Sept 30, 2022 21:04:38 GMT
pjw1961 - "I was thinking that, but the problem might be if binding legal contracts are signed." Possibly, but I don't know how you create such a contract. The companies would be contracted to deliver something in return, and that isn't how investment zones work.
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Post by graham on Sept 30, 2022 21:11:28 GMT
Indeed - and if 60 or 70 Tories threaten to rebel , she would be signing her own death warrant by removing the Whip! Worth remembering that Major did actually remove the whip from enough Tory MPs to make his government into a minority - the Maastricht rebels. Didn't result in any early GE. The rebels concerned had every expectation of having the Whip restored in due course - as duly happened.They also did not opposr the Government in a Confidence Vote. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 30, 2022 21:15:46 GMT
pjw1961 - "More tomorrow when I write it up." Would be interesting to see how the recovery periods from nadir to subsequent GE correlate with GDP growth, or an alternative economic metric. As I see it, Truss' problem (apart from being Liz Truss) is that she has hit a very deep trough, but needs to climb out of that against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation. Most governments in the past have had the wit to get the bad news done early in the parliament, to hit the depths of unpopularity early and then work through a recovery before facing the electorate again. The unique ability of Truss has been to engineer a slump in the last year and a half. That takes pure genius. Happy to supply the nadir/GE dates, but I'll leave the GDP correlation to others  |
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Post by jib on Sept 30, 2022 21:21:31 GMT
Except that the current crisis is significantly because of energy prices. If they go back to anything like normal then inflation wil head down. If china gets its economy together and trade resumes, then again prices fall. Granted can't do anything about having left the EU, but a rising tide floats all boats and a recovering world economy would dramatically improve the uk situation. I'd say it's odds on this will happen before the next election. It's just a question of how much. When it does, Kwarteng will claim his unorthodox approach was the reason and only he could have done it. Brexit only happened because voters believed lies told by politicians. I would have given a like but you spoilt it by your last sentence. Brexit only happened because politicians of all main parties were guilty of suppressing opposition to the EU for decades and the British people (or English and Welsh anyway) were tired of being slaves to a foreign oppressor (IMO). Brexit happened for a variety of reasons. But it happened. The current Brexit arrangements are merely transitory in any case, and a longer term - and better- settlement between the UK and EU will be achieved, although that will also be evolutionary. |
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Post by graham on Sept 30, 2022 21:21:52 GMT
pjw1961 - "More tomorrow when I write it up." Would be interesting to see how the recovery periods from nadir to subsequent GE correlate with GDP growth, or an alternative economic metric. As I see it, Truss' problem (apart from being Liz Truss) is that she has hit a very deep trough, but needs to climb out of that against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation. Most governments in the past have had the wit to get the bad news done early in the parliament, to hit the depths of unpopularity early and then work through a recovery before facing the electorate again. The unique ability of Truss has been to engineer a slump in the last year and a half. That takes pure genius. Happy to supply the nadir/GE dates, but I'll leave the GDP correlation to others I suspect that Wilson's 1966-70 Government showed a particularly strong recovery - despite going on to lose the 1970 election. |
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Post by matt126 on Sept 30, 2022 21:33:52 GMT
The only reason GBP recovered against the USD this week was that the BanK of England intervened in Bond market and there is widespread expectation that interest rates will go sky high hence the crisis on the mortgage market.
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Post by eor on Sept 30, 2022 21:59:27 GMT
The D.Tel is proclaiming that it has been the best week for the pound since 2020. Came in to post just that but you beat me to it Absolutely shameless piece of spin! The Telegraph's tone is interesting right now tho - a few of those "storm in a teacup" type news pieces, but also prominence given to stories talking up the prospects of back-bench rebellion and electoral discontent. Then the usual rent-a-gobs saying silly clickbait stuff in opinion posts, but more curiously a real split among the writers usually less given to hyperbole, ranging right through from "Truss needs to stay the bold course" to "Good ideas but incompetently handled" to "This is completely insane". The latter being Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who is usually the driest of the dry in terms of tone. Kind of in line with a lot of the initial "BIG gamble... might work?" reaction on the right. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Sept 30, 2022 22:00:47 GMT
Thanks Mercian and Leftie If you want to tag someone, so that they know you have mentioned them, other than by a Quote, just put an @ in front of their username like this: leftieliberal but be aware that you need to use their actual username. Most members have the same username as appears above their avatar, but for some it is different. You can see what it is by hovering your cursor over the username above the avatar. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 22:03:53 GMT
Welcome technical (who appears not to be very technical).
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