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Post by shevii on Sept 30, 2022 22:20:54 GMT
Fingers crossed for the Amazon on Sunday. 50% plus means no run off (although Lula has a 10 point lead in polling for the run off):
Stats for Lefties
@leftiestats
·
1h
There is a strong possibility that Lula could win over 50% of the vote on Sunday, thus making a runoff unnecessary. Of the 12 polls conducted in the last week:
🟣 11 out of 12 show Lula ahead of Bolsonaro
🟣 3 out of 12 show Lula on 50%+
🟣 7 out of 12 show Lula on 48%+
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Post by caroline on Sept 30, 2022 22:32:08 GMT
How about Fatcat Friday? Keeps a link as voters have short memories. No doubt by the time of the next GE the Tories will have framed the narrative of what occurred this week as some masterful act of courage subverted by the LP.
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Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2022 22:44:30 GMT
caroline of course. Also international financiers led by George Soros (is he still alive). Also Putin's agents.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 22:44:33 GMT
How about Fatcat Friday? Keeps a link as voters have short memories. No doubt by the time of the next GE the Tories will have framed the narrative of what occurred this week as some masterful act of courage subverted by the LP. I like that. I was actually thinking of Meltdown Friday myself. Whatever. It needs to be short, punchy, relevant and memorable and rammed home incessantly every day of the week and twice on Sundays. The Tories must be made to own this debacle. |
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Post by ptarmigan on Sept 30, 2022 22:48:24 GMT
Anyone familiar with these folk? Seem to be a Canadian outfit, but they're a new one on me. I quite enjoyed having a browse of their GE constituency projection map at the foot of the page here - leantossup.ca/uk-westminster/ (tbh, I'm a sucker for these things anyway, but I prefer the ones that aren't just operating on a UNS basis and it looks as though their model is a little more sophisticated than some). |
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Post by mercian on Sept 30, 2022 22:49:39 GMT
@isa What's it like to be a tool of the evil Russian dictator trying to subvert the noble Tory government? 🤣 [banter]
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 23:04:11 GMT
Anyone familiar with these folk? Seem to be a Canadian outfit, but they're a new one on me. I quite enjoyed having a browse of their GE constituency projection map at the foot of the page here - leantossup.ca/uk-westminster/ (tbh, I'm a sucker for these things anyway, but I prefer the ones that aren't just operating on a UNS basis and it looks as though their model is a little more sophisticated than some). Never heard of them but they seem fun. Liz keeps her seat but will obviously have to bow out on these results. Sunak would have kept Richmond but he's stood down and gone to the US. Mordaunt's lost Pompey North and Hunt's out of South West Surrey so I guess it's a toss up between Badenoch and Braverman to take over what's left of the Tory party and probably put it out of its misery. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 23:09:30 GMT
@isa What's it like to be a tool of the evil Russian dictator trying to subvert the noble Tory government? 🤣 [banter] Well, I hadn't quite considered it in those terms. I was probably a bit more forthright than I usually am, but I think you might be slightly overegging the pudding there. I just remember very clearly how the Tories played the LAB fiscal incompetence card in 2010 and how effective it was, exacerbated by the fact that LAB appeared supinely to take the charge with barely a challenge. Now the boot is on the other foot, the Tories are bang to rights, no ifs or buts or maybes, and if LAB can't make this stick, they'll regret it. |
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Post by norbold on Sept 30, 2022 23:13:02 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 23:24:58 GMT
Anyone familiar with these folk? Seem to be a Canadian outfit, but they're a new one on me. I quite enjoyed having a browse of their GE constituency projection map at the foot of the page here - leantossup.ca/uk-westminster/ (tbh, I'm a sucker for these things anyway, but I prefer the ones that aren't just operating on a UNS basis and it looks as though their model is a little more sophisticated than some). Blimey, if that happened, you'd be able to drive from Land's End to Bristol, Bath and Southampton without ever passing through a Tory seat. Bet that's never happened before! |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Sept 30, 2022 23:34:39 GMT
Blimey, if that happened, you'd be able to drive from Land's End to Bristol, Bath and Southampton without ever passing through a Tory seat. Bet that's never happened before! |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2022 23:51:48 GMT
Blimey, if that happened, you'd be able to drive from Land's End to Bristol, Bath and Southampton without ever passing through a Tory seat. Bet that's never happened before! Perhaps I could borrow one of your Jags. Although one of the Vauxhall Vivas from up the hill would be much more economical. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Sept 30, 2022 23:56:19 GMT
Remember when UK had a AAA rating from the credit rating agencies?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Oct 1, 2022 0:21:09 GMT
If you could afford a car and the fuel to put in it! Perhaps I could borrow one of your Jags. Although one of the Vauxhall Vivas from up the hill would be much more economical. |
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Post by peterbell on Oct 1, 2022 0:49:34 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Oct 1, 2022 6:06:16 GMT
My point is that although Kwarteng may have precipitated this crisis now, it was certain to happen anyway before the next election. By bringing it forward he stands more chance the UK will be in the recovering phase than the worsening phase by the time of that election. And thus this has been a good move for their election chances. How likely is that? The proposed Income Tax changes do not apply until April 2023 - just 18 months before the latest likely election date. Moreover four years of economic recovery post the ERM crisis in Autumn 1992 did little to boost Tory fortunes in May 1997. Kwarteng's budget seems broadly a keynsian stimulus. Classic keynes- govenment borrows to boost growth during a recession. People are arguing about the details of how the borrowing is being spent and whether it is affordable at all, but keynes argued fundamentally it doesnt matter who gets it, so long as government spends. So the budget would be expected to mitigate the current near recession.
Meanwhile, the world economy is likely to recover before the next election and drag up the Uk economy. Absolutely nothing to do with what the Uk government does. World events have been proven to have more influence on the UK economy than anything the UK government can do. The state of the UK economy over time has correlated more with the state of the world economy than with any change in uk financial policy.
Kwarteng's claims about trickle down are total nonsense, but that doesnt really matter. The point is, he claims to have a plan which will restore the UK economy, and then in a years time it starts to recover. He proves he is a genius. He proves he should be re-elected to carry out more of his economic magic. In 1992 the government had to leave the erm because it spent a fortune trying to defend the peg and failed. Its plan was to join erm, and then it was proven by outcome their plan failed. Thats the exact opposite of what Kwarteng is trying to do. He is currently doing something controversial (equivalent to joining erm). Then he hopes that at some point in the next 1-2 years the economy will be looking up and they can call a snap election. Claiming he ended the recession by his controversial action.
I expect that Truss will make it a confidence motion and/or threaten those who rebel with expulsion from the party. What the end result of that would be... I can not speculate beyond thinking that Trus's megalomania will make her act irrationally and against her own interests if she feels threatened. given current polling it's quite possible that they might think they have nothing to lose by having the whip removed Have you noticed how over the last 5 years or so con have played the part of their own opposition? Over Brexit, over covid and now over tax changes which are unpopular? Best keep labour entirely out of the loop.
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Post by alec on Oct 1, 2022 6:10:57 GMT
caroline - Fatcat Friday - winner, I think. ****** Couple of observations: Truss is clearly trying to claim credit for keeping energy bills down, which she has done. However, she hasn't reduced bills, only stopped further rises, and bills are going up from today anyway. I'm not sure how much political capital she will get from this, as consumers are going to see very large rises anyway. Second, she has been successful in one key part of the messaging, which Labour really needs to attack hard on. Today, the media is full of expressions like 'fiscal discipline'. That means cuts. Labour needs to constantly highlight the profits being handed to the energy companies by the taxpayer, because unlike everyone else, Truss doesn't want to tax them. We are basically pumping tens of billions of pounds profit into the energy sectors profits, in exchange for cuts in public services, because Truss and Kwarteng have taken the witless view that you can't tax excess profits in an industry distorted by international events.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Oct 1, 2022 6:26:31 GMT
@danny
'Kwarteng's budget seems broadly a keynsian stimulus. Classic keynes- govenment borrows to boost growth during a recession. People are arguing about the details of how the borrowing is being spent and whether it is affordable at all, but keynes argued fundamentally it doesnt matter who gets it, so long as government spends. So the budget would be expected to mitigate the current near recession'
The problem with your analysis is that it appears Truss intends to cut back on Government spending (benefits etc), so there would be no Keynesian boost. The extra borrowing will be for tax cuts, personally I don't think the trickle down economics philosophy behind tax cuts for the very wealthy will work
If you want growth far better to give the money to the people at the bottom, who will spend it in the economy. Alternatively increased Government spending on infrastructure projects for example, which goes straight into the economy,
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Post by mandolinist on Oct 1, 2022 6:30:23 GMT
caroline - Fatcat Friday - winner, I think. ****** Couple of observations: Truss is clearly trying to claim credit for keeping energy bills down, which she has done. However, she hasn't reduced bills, only stopped further rises, and bills are going up from today anyway. I'm not sure how much political capital she will get from this, as consumers are going to see very large rises anyway. Second, she has been successful in one key part of the messaging, which Labour really needs to attack hard on. Today, the media is full of expressions like 'fiscal discipline'. That means cuts. Labour needs to constantly highlight the profits being handed to the energy companies by the taxpayer, because unlike everyone else, Truss doesn't want to tax them. We are basically pumping tens of billions of pounds profit into the energy sectors profits, in exchange for cuts in public services, because Truss and Kwarteng have taken the witless view that you can't tax excess profits in an industry distorted by international events. I agree, with all of this alec, which is why Fatcat Friday has to be the winner. |
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Post by alec on Oct 1, 2022 6:39:19 GMT
hireton - the investment zone problems I suspect will mount, if they are anything like as briefed. Last night I gather that Channel 4 covered the Teesport dredging scandal, quoting experts saying that toxic sludge should be dumped in controlled landfill sites. This mirrors my understanding. I have been involved tangentially in some work in the uplands remediating old (Victorian era) lead mining legacy issues. Much of this revolves around toxic spoil heaps, which are unstable and prone to being washed down river in flood conditions. One of the projects I was associated with was funded by one of the NE England port authorities (can't say which one) because they were unable to dredge the port without shipping the sludge to a Netherlands landfill, because the UK doesn't have a landfill with sufficiently high grade license to handle waste with those levels of toxicity. So I was very surprised indeed to hear that Teesport was dumping their sludge at sea, given my knowledge. This is the kind of thing that will happen when there is great political pressure for rapid development and the removal of normal planning and regulatory oversight. It is likely to leave a host of legacy issues and blight those areas, in exchange for very little additional economic growth. Indeed, poorly managed development is more likely to create negative long term impacts, in my view.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 1, 2022 7:01:31 GMT
pjw1961 - "More tomorrow when I write it up." Would be interesting to see how the recovery periods from nadir to subsequent GE correlate with GDP growth, or an alternative economic metric. As I see it, Truss' problem (apart from being Liz Truss) is that she has hit a very deep trough, but needs to climb out of that against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation. Most governments in the past have had the wit to get the bad news done early in the parliament, to hit the depths of unpopularity early and then work through a recovery before facing the electorate again. The unique ability of Truss has been to engineer a slump in the last year and a half. That takes pure genius. Happy to supply the nadir/GE dates, but I'll leave the GDP correlation to others  We're fortunate to have you on this forum. I look forward to your detailed analysis. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 1, 2022 7:01:53 GMT
Kwarteng goes full tonto.
"Kwarteng: I had no other choice
. As the fall-out from the chancellor’s mini-budget continues, with the pound tumbling and markets reeling, Kwasi Kwarteng has attempted to defend the government’s course of action.
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, he said:
The British taxpayer expects their government to work as efficiently and effectively and possible, and we will deliver on that expectation.
Not all the measures we announced last week will be universally popular. But we had to do something different.
We had no other choice. "
No other choice other than cut the cap on bankers bonuses
No other choice but to reward those on £1 million a year with a £55,000 tax cut
No other choice but to freeze personal allowances to ensure that everyone yes everyone earning under £100,000 a year is worse off in April.
No other choice but to maintain energy companies windfall profits.
No other choice but to be so galatically infantile that your massive give away to the already filthy rich spooked the bond markets,endangering pension funds, massively raising the interest rates that hundreds of thousands will have to pay on mortgage repayments and ensuring austerity for those least able to pay.
There was another choice.
At the next election the public will make it.
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Post by alec on Oct 1, 2022 7:02:27 GMT
Will post a thread from John Burns Murdoch on current covid infection rates over on the Covid thread in a moment. Worth noting this is nothing at all like flu. We're just coming out of a trough, yet we have weekly prevalence rates from 1.4 - 2.2%, and we have not been below 1% since sometime early in 2021. That's staggering, and is the main reason why the NHS is failing on so many fronts, along with a reasonable chunk of GDP shaved off through having so many people off sick. In a really bad once in a decade 'flu season, we might see 20% of the population infected across 6 months, but covid is doing this every 5 - 10 weeks or so. And we are providing more widespread vaccination for flu than covid. Absolutely barking.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 1, 2022 7:06:20 GMT
Fingers crossed for the Amazon on Sunday. 50% plus means no run off (although Lula has a 10 point lead in polling for the run off): Stats for Lefties @leftiestats · 1h There is a strong possibility that Lula could win over 50% of the vote on Sunday, thus making a runoff unnecessary. Of the 12 polls conducted in the last week: 🟣 11 out of 12 show Lula ahead of Bolsonaro 🟣 3 out of 12 show Lula on 50%+ 🟣 7 out of 12 show Lula on 48%+ Fingers crossed for Lula. What a bonus for the world should Bolansaro be gone from not just Brazil but the global stage. Let's hope Neymar's late endorsement of Bolansaro has little effect on the predicted outcome. It shouldn't. It will be interesting, should he lose, to see how Bolansaro and his supporters react to the defeat. Can't see either he or them going quietly. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 1, 2022 7:07:23 GMT
mandolinist Cuts to public services to fund tax cuts for millionaires and profiteering by energy companies is an obvious attack line to take against the failed regime. The fact that it's entirely true is of course a bonus.
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 1, 2022 7:10:04 GMT
Fingers crossed for the Amazon on Sunday. 50% plus means no run off (although Lula has a 10 point lead in polling for the run off): Stats for Lefties @leftiestats · 1h There is a strong possibility that Lula could win over 50% of the vote on Sunday, thus making a runoff unnecessary. Of the 12 polls conducted in the last week: 🟣 11 out of 12 show Lula ahead of Bolsonaro 🟣 3 out of 12 show Lula on 50%+ 🟣 7 out of 12 show Lula on 48%+ Fingers crossed for Lula. What a bonus for the world should Bolansaro be gone from not just Brazil but the global stage. Let's hope Neymar's late endorsement of Bolansaro has little effect on the predicted outcome. It shouldn't. It will be interesting, should he lose, to see how Bolansaro and his supporters react to the defeat. Can't see either he or them going quietly. P.S. There's a farm on the plateau of Bredon Hill called Lula Farm. Always amuses me when I see it. I may lay a little bunch of red roses outside it tomorrow. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 1, 2022 7:11:27 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Oct 1, 2022 7:17:40 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Oct 1, 2022 7:20:56 GMT
A very warm welcome back to UKPR to the Clacton sage, polymath and an all round fine fellow to boot. As they say around my old neck of the woods - Where yer bin, kid? |
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Post by jib on Oct 1, 2022 7:21:32 GMT
The Times is reporting that Simon Clarke, the levelling-up secretary, is now floating Austerity 2.0 - the blue version as opposed to the 2010-15 Orange version.
He says "My big concern in politics is that western Europe is just living in a fool’s paradise whereby we can be ever less productive relative to our peers, and yet still enjoy a very large welfare state and persist in thinking that the two are somehow compatible over the medium to long term."
Sure to go down well in the Northern Seats.
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