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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 15:02:35 GMT
Just in from the beaches of Bournemouth and Aberavon in mind and body. Is that new poll from @people's polling' with a 17 point lead for 60th birthday boy Starmer an outlier/voodoo poll? In line with those council by election results. COLIN, Hello to you. Frank Field always argued that 'The left' neglected traditional family fidelity, with great detriment to the poor. Mind you, he later admitted that his Child Poverty Action Group report's attack on Wilson Government's record was deeply flawed (1964-1970) and in fact that government did a great deal to help Labour's people. Kinnock's 1985 speech in Bournemouth (was David Atkinson) alluded to 'all the chances' afforded to his generation.....leading Eric to walk off the platform, but Foot and Castle applauded enthusiastically at the back of the Hall. As Max Boyce used to say: I was there, I am puzzled by the proposition that a single parent mum is better off with State support than with a husband/partner building a family together. There is an implication in this view that all absent fathers are, ipso facto , better placed away from her and the children because they will abuse her/them. I find that view of men-even in a culture where father absenteeism is high a bit disturbing. Reduced to a role of sperm donor. And I'm not sure that it is a question of "neglect" in LOC thinking. It seems to be a positive opinion about single mums and absent fathers and part of LOC notions of the Family. But there we are-its nothing new and the Family Report for the Child Commissioner will probably just gather dust. I think that Badenoch commissioned the study, so maybe if she gets Education it will rear its head in Parliament. The same old knockabout will then ensue presumable.......assuming the Tories have time to discuss anything other than Energy costs and a nation in penury. ! Don't know why jimjam is worrying about economic competence ratings.  |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 15:04:56 GMT
No I don't think so. Cultural norms can and do change. The Society in which they exist can influence them. Sensitivity is required -of course. Education in the long run must be a big enabler.
Actually I think women are the key to this particular problem.
But it would require a political consensus which I can't see here.
Nope nothing in there in support of lone parent women - You should read it all:- " stop the decline in two parent families which De Souza highlights. ...so a program to halt the trend in absent fathers." or ask what I meant. But you like to decide for yourself. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 2, 2022 15:06:48 GMT
Ah, so the classic right wing prescription: just focus on getting in power and say that actually Starmer will move left enough. Despite the fact he’s been moving right. Maybe like Blair he will chuck some other right wing stuff like ATOS too. And greater funding will be conditional on handing more to the private sector? What have you seen so far to make you sure that moving left will happen as opposed to letting house prices rise, jobs be more causualised, utilities won’t continue to take the mick? I think the risk is what happened in Scotland - Labour will get the anybody but Tory left wing vote until they all suddenly switch to say the Greens. Then Blair's triangulation will have become a death march for the Party. Does it matter so long as there is a viable LoC party? Could be Labour but doesn't have to be. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 2, 2022 15:11:57 GMT
Apologies to pjw1961 and Shevii for my seeming volte face here, but I had to waive my deep scepticism about the national relevance of local council by election results for these two little beauties that took place yesterday in my old manor of Redditch. I lived in Headless Cross and Oakenshaw for years and walked its streets and estates on countless occasions, leafletting and canvassing for Labour in national and local elections. It's been a Tory ward in all that time. Now it's red. The times they are a changing and Keir is on his way! My point about local elections (including by-elections) is that individual results don't mean much, but in aggregate they can do. Labour's early parliament performance was as anemic as their poll ratings; it has been picking up somewhat lately. |
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Post by somerjohn on Sept 2, 2022 15:13:27 GMT
Mercian: "Johnson simply used the analogy of a kettle costing a bit up-front but then paying for itself showed why we should invest in nuclear energy now, even if it seems expensive."
But the analogy backfired because investing in a new kettle because the old one is slow won't actually save you any money at all.
And given that many people don't (or soon won't) know where the money for their next meal or electricity top-up is going to come from, touting the benefits of laying out a lump sum up front in the hope of a long-term payoff is crass and insensitive, to say the least.
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Post by mercian on Sept 2, 2022 15:13:34 GMT
I can't remember which post I liked, but you must have said something sensible for once! 😄 Seriously though, I don't 'like' on partisan grounds, and sometimes 'like' a post with a well-made argument even if I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions. You will be safe come the revolution Pete.  Damn right I will. I'll be on the barricades when we get our sensible right-wing revolution! We've had enough of this boring old centrist stuff we've had ever since the war, with the honourable exception of Maggie of course. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 15:16:08 GMT
I think the risk is what happened in Scotland - Labour will get the anybody but Tory left wing vote until they all suddenly switch to say the Greens. Then Blair's triangulation will have become a death march for the Party. Does it matter so long as there is a viable LoC party? Could be Labour but doesn't have to be. Short term is one thing, long-term might be another. The Liberals used to be the more natural home for a lot of the policies of the Labour right. But socialism post-war saw the Liberals polling not very much, so they moved into the two main parties, Con and Lab. If the Greens became more major, Liberals and other factions might move there instead. In some ways Greens might exert more influence if they grow enough to take significant votes off other parties without getting big enough to be infiltrated too much? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 2, 2022 15:19:40 GMT
PJW, ''This in turn increased the average lead in the 'months opposition are ahead' number from 6.4 to 6.7%'' I am sure you aware that the impact of a low lead on this average is greater than a low deficit. I understand why you track that number but, just thinking out loud, would a figure like number of months in the lead x the average lead be worth considering? Perhaps there is a number below which an opposition has never one and one above which they always have? I suspect that whatever metric is used the ' no clear outcome' bracket would be in play come the next GE. Hi Jimjam. I can certainly do that calculation as I track both numbers. However, my impression is that the size of the lead is much more important than the duration. Oppositions frequently lead for long periods by small amounts without winning the subsequent GE, but if they enjoy large leads they always win. My tables suggest there is a definite tipping point for this circa an average 8% lead, with the one big anomaly being 1992. I can't help wondering if there was a late swing in that election and voters got cold feet about trusting Kinnock to be PM after the Sheffield Rally? 2017 proved late swings can happen and are not just a political myth. |
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Post by somerjohn on Sept 2, 2022 15:20:31 GMT
Crofty: "Dunno why you found it ironic."
Live by the sword, die by the sword.
If your chosen style of posting is rapid-fire, quirky, heavily irony-laden and a bit off-the-wall, I don't think you should be surprised that people have got in the habit of trying to go with your flow and work out what you really mean.
Perhaps you could flag up your occasional ventures into po-faced moralising with whatever is the opposite of a smiley face.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,620
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Post by pjw1961 on Sept 2, 2022 15:25:03 GMT
In case you have ever wondered what superannuated cabinet ministers get up to I was spammed today at work by an email from "The Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell" which turned out to be flogging places at some health conference.
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 2, 2022 15:30:10 GMT
You will be safe come the revolution Pete. Damn right I will. I'll be on the barricades when we get our sensible right-wing revolution! We've had enough of this boring old centrist stuff we've had ever since the war, with the honourable exception of Maggie of course. You're in for a horrible surprise, Mercy Man. Just when you think you're heading into a right wing nirvana with Truss's New Model Tory Party, Cool Lizzie will turn the socialist taps on and pander to her public ownership thirsty Tory base. Everything is turning upside down, mate. Labour are the right wing now. You think Truss is going to deliver right wing red meat and she goes socialist on you. Ladders dropped down, house prices slashed and taps gushing the taxpayers money. If you want to go right, go Starmer and Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 15:34:57 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w“ You seem more suited to the party thing, it seems quite tribal.” Really? For someone who seems to know so much about my posts you seem to have missed out the frequent ones I have made in support of genuine PR and my acknowledgment that that would quite possibly mean we never have a single party governments again. That would, logically, also exclude the Labour Party although I imagine all parties would alter their stances to some extent anyway and become more honest rather than always having to play politics I have also said that, provided the government we end up with best represents the entire country, I would then be able to accept that far more happily than at present. I think that view is shared by many because, at the moment, whichever party is in power is unrepresentative. Ergo, you are talking bollocks. (But do continue.)
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 15:35:12 GMT
No, I didn’t say it was just that Corbyn was unpopular, I pointed out there were other policy issues like Brexit. Robbie, you don’t seem that interested in constructive debate, but instead keep trying to shoehorn what I am saying - and indeed what I haven’t remotely said - into trying and question my motives. But my motives are irrelevant to the issue of what’s possible electorally. The shift leftward is independent of my views of Starmer. As might be any impact of the u-turns. Sure, I have noted electoral support for some policies he ditched, and that he has a certain way of dealing with challenges etc., it’s not unusual on this board to do that kind of thing. You can live in that cult-like world where you never examine your leader critically Robbie, only others’ leaders maybe, but the rest of us don’t have to. 3. As Jim Jam & others have said we have been hit by a succession of crises; Brexit, Covid, War & Inflation, leadership instability, two self-inflicted by idiots, the two others by exogenous forces. The pattern of politics never settles. I don't want Starmer to commit to a string of leftist policies until the government has played its hand. Besides, Labour's room for manoeuvre, given the massive slump & huge relief programme that is about to hit us, is going to be v limited. For that reason, eg., I am opposed to a big nationalisation programme. Why raise expectations that cannot be fulfilled. 3. Sooner or later he will have to come clean on things that do cost money: education, NHS, housing, benefits, welfare, pensions local finance, environment. And for those that don't. The strikes that will engulf us. Modifying Bexit. As for Woke, the less said the better. The Tories see this as a vote-winner but this is not the USA. 4. When I hear what the policies are I will offer an opinion as I have done on water privatisation & the energy fix. Well, the point of the polling is that many of Corbyn’s policies weren’t so leftist, they are more centrist, and more so now. Only 8 percent want to keep utilities in private hands, and you might be in that 8%. And another issue with waiting to the last minute for policies is that it’s useful to be able to plan for what’s coming instead of being ambushed. And it seems to be ok to examine Tory policies. Starmer does have some policies, I’ve posted about a few, which aroused very little interest. Get more interest posting stuff from the Telegraph. Not all nationalisations are as burdensome as you make out, but there are other left wing policies that aren’t as burdensome either. This is the worry, that we wind up with a package that just slows rather than reverses the descent, when we might have had something that at least reverses it, if only a bit. And there is possibly a cohort among the middle class that might want that, might want to only vote for a package that will maintain the middle class hegemony. Their number might be shrinking, and heading eventually to the realms of where there is just an over-populated elite of maybe 10% and then the rest, but it might still be enough to see a more right wing package over the line, this time… |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 15:37:09 GMT
Damn right I will. I'll be on the barricades when we get our sensible right-wing revolution! We've had enough of this boring old centrist stuff we've had ever since the war, with the honourable exception of Maggie of course. You're in for a horrible surprise, Mercy Man. Just when you think you're heading into a right wing nirvana with Truss's New Model Tory Party, Cool Lizzie will turn the socialist taps on and pander to her public ownership thirsty Tory base. Everything is turning upside down, mate. Labour are the right wing now. You think Truss is going to deliver right wing red meat and she goes socialist on you. Ladders dropped down, house prices slashed and taps gushing the taxpayers money. If you want to go right, go Starmer and Labour. Vote Labour  and crush the working class. Get on board Pete! |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 15:39:22 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w “ You seem more suited to the party thing, it seems quite tribal.” Really? For someone who seems to know so much about my posts you seem to have missed out the frequent ones I have made in support of genuine PR and my acknowledgment that that would quite possibly mean we never have a single party governments again. That would, logically, also exclude the Labour Party although I imagine all parties would alter their stances to some extent anyway and become more honest rather than always having to play politics I have also said that, provided the government we end up with best represents the entire country, I would then be able to accept that far more happily than at present. I think that view is shared by many because, at the moment, whichever party is in power is unrepresentative. Ergo, you are talking bollocks. (But do continue.) That makes no sense. You can be in favour of PR and still be tribally for a party. You may wish a different party to have more power like the Liberals but back Labour for now under FPTP. People can switch tribal allegiances, but still like being in a tribe. You behave rather tribally on here. A mark of which is the double standards. Accusing others of being snide but ignoring when your own tribe do it. It’s like you think you are a mod but are the Ratners of modding. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 15:40:42 GMT
Crofty: "Dunno why you found it ironic."Live by the sword, die by the sword. If your chosen style of posting is rapid-fire, quirky, heavily irony-laden and a bit off-the-wall, I don't think you should be surprised that people have got in the habit of trying to go with your flow and work out what you really mean. Perhaps you could flag up your occasional ventures into po-faced moralising with whatever is the opposite of a smiley face. “Po-faced moralising” ?!? That seems unnecessarily offensive given that I simply corrected your comment that I had made about colin. I wrote it seriously and couldn’t see why anyone should somehow assume that I hadn’t - which is all I said to you. FFS… |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 15:41:24 GMT
“Po-faced moralising” ?!? That seems unnecessarily offensive given that I simply corrected your comment that I had made about colin . I wrote it seriously and couldn’t see why anyone should somehow assume that I hadn’t - which is all I said to you. FFS… And they say satire is dead |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 15:48:45 GMT
You're in for a horrible surprise, Mercy Man. Just when you think you're heading into a right wing nirvana with Truss's New Model Tory Party, Cool Lizzie will turn the socialist taps on and pander to her public ownership thirsty Tory base. Everything is turning upside down, mate. Labour are the right wing now. You think Truss is going to deliver right wing red meat and she goes socialist on you. Ladders dropped down, house prices slashed and taps gushing the taxpayers money. If you want to go right, go Starmer and Labour. Vote Labour and crush the working class. Get on board Pete! No, it’s more like exploit them and keep them in that situation. And it’s hardly a novel idea: people complain about the ruling class for similar reasons. It’s just that some in the middle class do it too. You will tend to find it in other classes too. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 2, 2022 15:51:04 GMT
alec, was just listening to more or less talking about covid again, discussing excess deaths. This time I noticed they talked about continuing covid deaths. They said 2,800 people had died from covid in the last 8 weeks, and another 1700 had covid as a contributing cause. So that means the official government figures will have recorded 4,500 deaths where covid is mentioned on the death certificate. In other words, it over counts by about 40% The question is, has this proportion always applied all the way through the epidemic, so we ought to take the total of officially reported death certificate covid deaths, and cut it to 60% who really died from covid and not because they had something else but incidentally caught covid.
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Post by alec on Sept 2, 2022 15:59:02 GMT
@danny - "They said 2,800 people had died from covid in the last 8 weeks, and another 1700 had covid as a contributing cause. So that means the official government figures will have recorded 4,500 deaths where covid is mentioned on the death certificate. In other words, it over counts by about 40%"
Explain how you get a 40% over count please.
What I get is:
2,800 people killed by covid
1,700 people who died in part due to covid
So in total, 4,500 deaths caused or assisted by covid.
There is no over count here. If something is on the death certificate, it means it played a role in the death.
Are you having trouble understanding this simple fact?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 2, 2022 16:00:26 GMT
No longer. Your view is decades out of date. Virtually the whole world[1] is now on the low birthrate path. When the 11 billion peak die off, we will desperately need more kids. ease, we do not and never have needed a growing population. Sure, we can get in cheap labour and as a result we become richer. But that is a policy choice to prioritise becoming richer. Our society would not collapse because the population is shrinking, it would simply have to adjust. Politicians love population growth because the riches it brings make their job of bribing voters so much easier. Its perfectly fine to leave the EU because you want to prevent further immigration. Trouble is, no british government most of the last century and all of this has wanted to do that. The current one is not making the hard decisions which flow from needing to replace labour from our own resources. It shows no sign of doing anything except selling brexit on a promise to cut immigration, and then quiety do the opposite. |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 16:06:36 GMT
Poorer societies do did have v high birth rates but they also have had 50% infant n child motality, say, which is why their populations grow grew slowly. No longer. Your view is decades out of date. Virtually the whole world[1] is now on the low birthrate path. When the 11 billion peak die off, we will desperately need more kids. There’s a thing. If we get colonies on Mars, rotating habitats etc., will the birth rate increase? anyways, you may have seen this already but thought I’d post it anyway: an historic moment in astronomy - the first direct image of a planet beyond the solar system. A hot gas giant, so unlikely to harbour life, but seems like they might be able to analyse atmospheres, so if they maybe find a rocky world in the habitable zone with a signature of life - e.g. oxygen in the atmosphere…  |
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 2, 2022 16:20:37 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w And 385 light years away. If they pointed it at proxima b we could see the proximans waving back and Patel can book some extra seats on the Rwanda express just in case.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2022 16:38:08 GMT
I think the risk is what happened in Scotland - Labour will get the anybody but Tory left wing vote until they all suddenly switch to say the Greens. Then Blair's triangulation will have become a death march for the Party. Does it matter so long as there is a viable LoC party? Could be Labour but doesn't have to be. No probably not Go Greens! |
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 2, 2022 16:39:58 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w And 385 light years away. If they pointed it at proxima b we could see the proximans waving back and Patel can book some extra seats on the Rwanda express just in case. she might want to send people from here to Proxima B! (Wondered why they were building all those spaceports…) |
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 2, 2022 17:03:36 GMT
I don't know about satire dying, but this thread more or less has.
Somebody please lay the cyber wreath on it quickly and put the half a dozen wretches still reading any of it out of their prolonged misery.
Then let's start a new one based on that People Polling poll.
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Post by jimjam on Sept 2, 2022 17:03:55 GMT
PJW,
''My tables suggest there is a definite tipping point for this circa an average 8% lead, with the one big anomaly being 1992.''
The consensus view of 1992 and the lead up to the GE was that polls were badly wrong in not detecting the shy Tories for example.
In fact those, like me, who campaigned for Labour in '92 were not surprised by the result that much; although I did think denying the Tories an OM was possible.
As to the 8% and my point about low leads reducing the average lead more than deficits (as only lead included).
On reflection there would have been low lead polls in previous parliaments, so maybe while that quirk is there it is a quirk that always would have been impacting and with not vastly dissimilar arithmetical consequences.
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Post by somerjohn on Sept 2, 2022 17:06:39 GMT
Crofty: " That seems unnecessarily offensive given that I simply corrected your comment that I had made about colin."
I don't understand that sentence. You corrected my comment that you'd made about Colin? Nope, don't get it.
Re the 1950s discussion, I made a light-hearted quip about old male white right-wingers yearning for the good old days when Irish, blacks and women knew their place.
You decided that was an attack by me on Colin and took it upon yourself to admonish me (hence 'po-faced moralising').
I disabused you of that notion and, when you queried why I might think you were being ironical, I pointed out that your style of posting can make it hard to work out when you're being ironic.
OK?
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Sept 2, 2022 17:25:50 GMT
I don't know about satire dying, but this thread more or less has. Somebody please lay the cyber wreath on it quickly and put the half a dozen wretches still reading any of it out of their prolonged misery. Then let's start a new one based on that People Polling poll. This thread has broken some kind of record in duration |
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Sept 2, 2022 17:28:54 GMT
No longer. Your view is decades out of date. Virtually the whole world[1] is now on the low birthrate path. When the 11 billion peak die off, we will desperately need more kids. There’s a thing. If we get colonies on Mars, rotating habitats etc., will the birth rate increase? anyways, you may have seen this already but thought I’d post it anyway: an historic moment in astronomy - the first direct image of a planet beyond the solar system. A hot gas giant, so unlikely to harbour life, but seems like they might be able to analyse atmospheres, so if they maybe find a rocky world in the habitable zone with a signature of life - e.g. oxygen in the atmosphere… Yep, saw that. Thanks. I've been the watching the ongoing testing on Booster 7, now with its first multi-engine ignition:
No huge bang this time, which is encouraging.
As to population, I've been reading Tomorrow's People: The Future of Humanity in Ten Numbers, a fascinating exploration into what our possible future as a planet is. Did you know there are over one hundred cities in China that have a population of more than one million? Could you name them? Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, ... Wuhan ... Er ... Hong Kong? I'll stop there, only 95 more to go!!!
If we wanted to increase the birth rate, maybe, just maybe, we could make having a family something to be celebrated. I feel sorry for single mothers. Their relationship has fallen apart, they are left to bring up the kids; then they are told to go to work, because we, as a country, won't subsidise them. Oh, and make sure they don't become delinquent. Being a mother is not even considered a job!! You what? You want help? This is Ingerland and we don't dish out BENEFITS. But pensioners get the triple lock -- woo hoo![1]
'Tell your kid to pick up his ball and take it somewhere else, otherwise I'll get them to slap an ASBO on him.'
[1] Get your dirty socialist hands off my house. That's for my kids. (I get my insensitive pensioner views by listening to my wife -- I maybe wrong.)
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and crush the working class. Get on board Pete!
