Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 5:30:21 GMT
This is the way medical thinking is going - www.ft.com/content/26e0731f-15c4-4f5a-b2dc-fd8591a02aec"As he started to see a rise in certain conditions in the first year of the pandemic, (Dr.)Strain assumed it was the result of people being unable or unwilling to access healthcare. Only as the pandemic entered its second year did he begin to suspect that Covid itself could be increasing vulnerability to other serious illnesses." You didnt respond when I queried whether he has demonstrated causality.
Do people who catch covid a lot becomer sicker and weaker and therefore more susceptible to other illness? Or do people who at outset were sicker or weaker catch more covid?
I thought ground zero for the Kent/Alpha variant was Swale? Yes, something like that. You can still look at the government case data on their website for local towns and see it spreading from the staggered peaks and starts of new cases. What was really interesting because of the way government timed its lockdowns (you will remember we had a month of lockdown, was it November, then a break in december, then reimposed after Christmas), that in hastings cases went up during the November lockdown, then went down during the release in december. Did a fat lot of good to halt the spread of the outbreak, which then started tailing off naturally anyway despite relaxing restrictions. Utterly pointless.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 6:29:33 GMT
Reporter on R4 reporting from the battlefield in Ukraine. Interestingly he is walking through landmines. Which means someone must have had stable lines between the two forces and believed they were staying stable so it was worth laying mines. He mentioned russian litter, so I guess he must be going through a Russian defensive position.
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 1, 2022 6:35:09 GMT
ladyvalerie
That Owen Jones video clip was disturbing. As old TOH used to often say about post-Covid Johnson; "He doesn't look well".
What's happened to him? My late mother used to love "Walking in the Air" and even stayed with him when his voice broke and he graduated to Songs of Praise.
Now you look at him, and gaze on his haggard and ravaged features and you wonder what became of the cherubic young boy who once charmed a nation.
He sounds so angry too. Venturing into politics seems to have embittered him.
As I once said to George Best when I was doing a holiday job as a hotel porter many years ago, and happened upon him in bed with Miss World, champagne on ice and with the bed covered with bank notes won on a good night in the local casino; "Where on earth did it all go wrong?".
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 6:39:19 GMT
4) if you don’t fix the big drivers of upward mobility that ensured greater prosperity in the post-war period - full employment, affordable utilities, affordable housing etc., and curtail the increasing power of capital - then things are still heading downward even if it’s not quite as bad. Wages stagnating, rents rising, utility bills rising etc. even when Tories not in power. Is it really rational to accept just a slower descent? Or would you rather fight for a chance to reverse the decline? This rather like Brexit. Some like to argue remainers should have accepted a compromise. But there is no real compromise. Outside the EU britain will inevitably decline. It has to rejoin to recover.
More polling reported on R4 from kellner, about people thinking we would be better off insde the EU for managing the energy crisis. news of record numbers of immigrants arriving by boat. Prices carged for a crossing falling, nd using bigger boats to move more people at once. That it takes three years to process an illegal immigrant, not least I expect because there arent enough civil sevants to do the work, and the courts are in gridlock because the government has cut staff there and sitting days too, and the privatised legal profession is demanding more pay.
Meanwhile sending people to rwanda with its record of killing people the government doesnt like, is seen as a joke and is increasingly becoming impossible for multiple reasons. Item said a high proportion of people selected to be deported to there turned out to have themselves been tortured or trafficked.
As members of the EU we just took illegals straight back to France, Now we cannot do that they are starting to realise there is no legal way for the Uk to deport them once they arrive. We are fast tuning into Greece, which had this problem as the entry point to the EU by sailing across the mediterranean. though we seem to also be turning into Grecce economically, so hey. Thats what Brexit means. Instead of being a big fish in a small pond of the EU, now we are stranded in drying mud.
It started with your Tory want to secretly Remain theory, but Hastings 2019 - despite no evidence whatsoever beyond your hunch - really took the carrot. Tories want to be in power. Cameron didnt believe leave could win, and thats why he allowed a referendum, he was plainly in charge and a remainer, and traditionally conservatives have been more pro EU than lab. They took us in, Thatcher was very pro membership on her terms, and thats exactly what she and her successors created. Best of both worlds. Its no secret most con MPs were remainers. A lot of those have left and been replaced by leavers, but not all and they will not have changed their view it is better for the Uk to be in. The party's public stance is all about winning elections, which is why it appointed the leader of the leave campaign as PM after remainer May was unable to find a compromise half in position. I dont see what is wrong with this logic, con always wanted to remain in the EU. Right now most of them are probably still more pragmatic than ideological leavers, and once public opinion - specifically opinion amongst swing tory voters- changes in favour of membership, then con will switch to a rejoin/closer policy once again. At the moment it looks like leavers are trying to create international treaties which pretty much disadvantage Britain -selling out our farmers and businesses, and things like welfare standards not just of animals but people - to try to lock in brexit and make it hard for the Uk to rejoin. Voters should treat them with the comtempt they deseve for betraying the nation.
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Post by jib on Sept 1, 2022 6:53:18 GMT
You make my point again. if you have factual argument to counter those I have presented, then do that. Yet instead you put up some cartoon images? Like seriously? I stopped taking you seriously a long, long time ago. You just troll for attention despite apparently being reasonably intelligent. It started with your Tory want to secretly Remain theory, but Hastings 2019 - despite no evidence whatsoever beyond your hunch - really took the carrot.
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Post by alec on Sept 1, 2022 6:56:42 GMT
Danny - "I agree entirely that epidemics hit places at different times. What I dont agree is covid has ever missed anywhere. It gets there eventually. ..............If hastings has no recorded cases, it has to mean hastings had covid before recording began." Can you not see how stupid these sentences are when placed together? "You have no way to disprove this, because there isnt one. Thats why you keep being insulting..." a) I'm not being insulting. You are being stupid; that is a statement of fact. You are lying; that also is a statement of fact. I'm sorry if you don't like that or if you think these are insults, but I'm just being honest. b) I do have evidence. Like I have explained before, there have been lots of tests of samples from the Hastings area pre January 2020 that came up negative for covid, both from the sentinel swabbing scheme (current infection testing) and the retrospective analysis after covid was identified, and covid was absent in all of them. Statistically that isn't possible if there was a 2019 covid wave in Hastings. It's actually quite laughable that you are accusing others of not having evidence, when you have been entirely incapable of citing a single shred of evidence to support your theory; no records of illness, no test results, no retrospective positive tests. All you have is some epidemiological cases data around which you have constructed a completely illogical theory, and even here, you've just accepted that "I agree entirely that epidemics hit places at different times." At the top of this page you've even raised a question asking whether epidemiological evidence has "demonstrated causality", so you know full well what a useless argument you are presenting for the Hastings Theory. It's just evidence free rubbish, and you know it. Hastings got the wave later. That's all that happened. You understand that now, so let's just move along.
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 6:56:45 GMT
A little good news from across the Atlantic. Trumpian loon republican Sarah Palin has lost her bid to win the single vacant house seat in Alaska to Mary Peltola a Yup’ik native American and the first Democrat to win the seat since 1972.
The omens for the mid terms are looking better by the day.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 1, 2022 6:58:42 GMT
Households should be given a free energy allowance this winter to cut bills and encourage people to save gas and electricity, a former minister suggests.
“Neil O’Brien, a levelling-up minister until July 6, warned the Tory leadership contenders, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, against being “stingy” with help.
He said that offering support only to the poorest risked a “whacking great recession” as middle earners were forced to stop going out.
The new prime minister should also launch a public information campaign of energy-saving tips. O’Brien urged them to emulate Germany’s culture of cutting down on gas usage, with “ministers boasting that they haven’t had a hot shower since spring”.”
that was in the Times but OVO are suggesting something similar, in the Telegraph?
‘It came as the founder of Britain's third-largest domestic energy supplier called for a subsidy scheme in which households would get an allowance of cheap energy, then be charged much higher rates for anything used above that level.
Writing in the Telegraph, Stephen Fitzpatrick, of Ovo Energy, said his plan would benefit the poorest households while keeping incentives for consumers to cut consumption where they can.”
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Sept 1, 2022 7:00:56 GMT
Sarah Palin, the Trump backed Republican loses to a Democrat in a district that was Republican-held for nearly five decades. The tide is turning
Edit, Steve beat me to it
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2022 7:01:29 GMT
This is still the most telling demographic I've seen - voting in 2017 General Election by work status. Couldn't find same demographic for 2019. Tories given to us by the retired, no other work status group voted for them. Think about that!
Work status Con Lab Lib Dem SNP UKIP Green Plaid Others Full-time 39 45 8 4 2 2 0 1 Part-time 40 44 8 3 2 2 0 1 Student 19 64 10 4 1 2 0 1 Retired 63 24 7 3 2 1 0 1 Unemployed 28 54 6 4 4 2 1 1 Not working 36 48 6 4 3 1 0 1 Other 30 55 6 4 2 2 0 1
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Post by alec on Sept 1, 2022 7:08:56 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 1, 2022 7:10:46 GMT
This is still the most telling demographic I've seen - voting in 2017 General Election by work status. Couldn't find same demographic for 2019. Tories given to us by the retired, no other work status group voted for them. Think about that! Work status Con Lab Lib Dem SNP UKIP Green Plaid Others Full-time 39 45 8 4 2 2 0 1 Part-time 40 44 8 3 2 2 0 1 Student 19 64 10 4 1 2 0 1 Retired 63 24 7 3 2 1 0 1 Unemployed 28 54 6 4 4 2 1 1 Not working 36 48 6 4 3 1 0 1 Other 30 55 6 4 2 2 0 1 That's an interesting breakdown. Labour ahead in all occupation categories apart from Retired, yet lost the popular vote by almost a million votes and gained only 30 seats in the election. Only goes to reinforce the notion once again that it's the pensioners wot wins it. The biggest demographic and the one that turns out in the biggest numbers. A gerontocracy, in other words.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 1, 2022 7:15:12 GMT
This is still the most telling demographic I've seen - voting in 2017 General Election by work status. Couldn't find same demographic for 2019. Tories given to us by the retired, no other work status group voted for them. Think about that! Work status Con Lab Lib Dem SNP UKIP Green Plaid Others Full-time 39 45 8 4 2 2 0 1 Part-time 40 44 8 3 2 2 0 1 Student 19 64 10 4 1 2 0 1 Retired 63 24 7 3 2 1 0 1 Unemployed 28 54 6 4 4 2 1 1 Not working 36 48 6 4 3 1 0 1 Other 30 55 6 4 2 2 0 1 I heard on the radio the other day some pollster saying that they had found that within the margin-of-error in their recent polling, pretty much none of the 18-to-24-year-olds had voted for Tories. Though can’t recall who it was to check. On the other hand, an article in the Telegraph today saying that as boomers pass away, their descendents are due to inherit about £1.2 million quid, and the writer suggests that this may lead some of them to switch to Tory to protect their assets etc. I don’t know how likely that is, but I guess we will find out. (Just checking Yougov, and only 11% of 18-24 year olds approve of the government, and 9% of 25-49s).
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 7:27:50 GMT
nickp The majority of the retired also gifted us the disaster of brexit, as with the general elections the majority not yet retired voted for remain and not Tory. There's a pattern here .
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 7:28:32 GMT
b) I do have evidence. Like I have explained before, there have been lots of tests of samples from the Hastings area pre January 2020 that came up negative for covid, both from the sentinel swabbing scheme (current infection testing) Ye what, see eg wikipedia, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Development_of_COVID-19_tests which says the first UK test for covid was announced 10 jan 2020, which was rolled out 10 Feb. When they say 'rolled out', you must surely recall that testing was in tiny numbers back then and none of it was directed towards a minor town in the countryside with no transport links abroad. You certainly havnt explained that before, or ever mentioned it. Where can I see these results of retrospective testing of samples from Hastings? and what samples exactly would have existed to be tested? The only retrospective testing I have seen is of stored blood, from which completely anonymised results were published, which showed significant immunity to covid dating back into 2019. This could have been caused by exposure to covid, but cross immunity is generated by exposure to other corona viruses too (ie 'vaccination'). The most likely reason covid didnt turn out to be as serious as feared is because of this pre existing immunity. There are no medical records of covid infections back then, because officialy it did not exist. There are certainly records of people admitted or dying in hospital from pneumonia cause unknown because I am aware of a couple. That isnt actually unusual, and thats why no one paid much attention. Unknown infections like covid was, but a bit milder, are actually quite common! No one bothers to study them. Especially when its old people affected - completely normal in winter. Covid hid in plain sight because its just another flu. What point are you trying to make here? I said sickly people are quite possibly more susceptible to covid, just as they are to other illnesses? I dont think that is at all controversial, and there is loads of evidence it is true. Then you quoted a paper saying people who catch covid a lot seem to be quite sickly. Well gee...isnt that exactly what you would expect, because we know sickly people catch covid more and worse? What does that have to do with the absence of recorded cases in hastings spring 2020? hastings got the Kent wave when the whole nation got the kent wave. Everywhere got reinfected when the new strain came along, so Hastings behaved exactly like everywhere else. Immunity to first wave did not prevent infection by second wave. Hastings did NOT get reinfected with original wave at the time schools reopened. You can look at the data, some of which I have posted, which shows a significant wave in N. England where they got first wave resurgence when schools reopened, but it didnt happen in the south. This demonstrates how the south had by then become immune to first wave because of its past infections in the spring, before and during lockdown. Hastings was perhaps particularly immune, but the whole south had by then created immunity to the first strain through infection. Exactly as had happened in spring, when Hastings had immunity to first wave because it already had it through the winter but few other places did, and so there were no cases to count in Hastings by spring. Hastings was in no way exceptional, it simply behaved like a town which had one of the very earliest infections in the UK. The important thing is that despite there being no special interventions whatsoever, the outcome was no worse than anywhere else, maybe even was better. That fact seems to be at the heart of your problem with accepting this.
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 7:29:16 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w I inherited a bag of tap samples if you've got a spare £1.2 million I can arrange collection.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 1, 2022 7:31:07 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w I inherited a bag of tap samples if you've got a spare £1.2 million I can arrange collection. Do you mean samples as in audio samples?
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Post by crossbat11 on Sept 1, 2022 7:33:40 GMT
carfrew/nickp The other factor here is differential turnout and the tendency for the young not to vote. The unemployed too, many of whom, like the young, may not even be on the electoral roll. I suspect the estimated six million or so adults unregistered to vote are disproportionately in younger, part time and unemployed demographic and occupational categories. For example, the 2017 youthquake was largely a myth. Turnout amongst the young remained low and desultory although those who did vote voted in large numbers for Labour. Turnout and registration levels are the obstacles Labour have to overcome if they are to convert sentiment into electoral force and impact. www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/the-myth-of-the-2017-youthquake-election/#.YxBfPezTVPw
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 7:40:19 GMT
On the other hand, an article in the Telegraph today saying that as boomers pass away, their descendents are due to inherit about £1.2 million quid, and the writer suggests that this may lead some of them to switch to Tory to protect their assets etc. So that is the value of a family home in London? It sounds a lot and its a good start, but time their kids have paid off their own mortgages and had a couple of holidays or cars, its likely there is nowhere near enough to make the grandkids comfortable. Only enough to give them deposits. Not forgetting that ironically the people most likely to have such big windfalls are in the big cities already, and demographically already labour despite their boomer paper wealth. Will people really be content that the reason they managed to buy a home was because gran passed away? that the only way to get a home was to bump her off faster?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 7:41:54 GMT
Asked to rate the performance of British prime ministers since 1945, 49% of people told pollster Ipsos that Mr Johnson were unimpressed with his time in Downing Street. The figure was worse than those for both his immediate predecessors with 41% of people saying Theresa May had done a bad job, the second highest total, while David Cameron’s 38% was the third highest total. You do not quote how many people think he or they did a good job, which I think is more relevant.
My reasoning is that Conservatives only ever get the support of about 1/4 of the population at an election, and maybe only 40% or so vote share. Hardly amazing therefore if only 40% ever thought he was the right man for the job, and rather fewer that he did it well.
Carfrew posts another poll, where 18% think Johnson tells the truth, and 30% Starmer. truss on 22%, hardly any better than Johnson. Can't help thinking these responses are very partisan party rather than personal.
Is it possible that Truss could lose this leadership contest? Just seems bizarre that someone who is so clearly unpopular with the electorate and so obviously out of her depth can really win. The poll Carfrew posted said just 1% more people thought Sunak trustworthy. So what difference? They might just as well have stuck with Johnson, because at least he was a clear target the rest of the MPs could join in attacking. I can't help it if the war generation voted Thatcher & that the boomers, i.e., those born after '45, feather-bedded in their later years by the Tories, have 3:1 stuck religiously to voting Tory & indeed supported Brexit. They were offered left-wing policies in 2019. They ran a mile. Things have not changed that much. You are always on about boomers & Blair, Now they vote Tory: nearly every one born in the decade after the war does so! The irony is that the collapse of the post war socialist lab-con consensus was not about ideology at all, but caused by an economic crisis when newly independent nations massively hiked the price of oil. This created a wave of distrust with the status quo and therefore a move away from socialism. Socialism was blamed for what it did not cause.
We are currently facing another such wave, which this time the developed nations have created all by themselves with self denying policies on coal,oil and gas, crazily suspending the world economy just because of an epidemic (like, thats committing suicide because of fear a burglar might hurt you), and in our own case Brexit. The question then is whether this crisis will cause a similar u turn in policy, simply turning against the status quo which this time is market economics. And so we might see a return to state interventions and wealth redistrubution.
I continue to see no evidence other than that people act in what they see as their own personal interest. Thus they voted for capitalist policies while they saw themselves as benefitting from accumulating capital. It doesnt men they have really changed their world view from the days they voted socialist post WW2,when they wanted homes and healtth care. What they are being eminded of now is that capitalism is now preventing them (or their descendants) getting homes, and is comprommising theor own health care just as they need it most.
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 7:42:24 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wWell it's a set of mixer taps and hose fittings but I could throw in the sound of a drip if it would clinch the deal
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Post by pete on Sept 1, 2022 7:48:46 GMT
Sarah Palin, the Trump backed Republican loses to a Democrat in a district that was Republican-held for nearly five decades. The tide is turning Edit, Steve beat me to it Actually, eor beat you both to it.
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Post by pete on Sept 1, 2022 7:50:14 GMT
Mercian (Pete B). Regarding your question about the kids and free school meals. No idea. I thought the same as you. Either we were both wrong or the dinner lady was lying.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Sept 1, 2022 7:51:23 GMT
Gove stepping back in politics. Wonder if he has begun to realise brexit was a mistake. Time to distance yourself.
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 7:51:49 GMT
Interesting bloke my old dad from a family of East end criminals, the first man in his family not to go to prison, fighter pilot in world war two and one of the most successful tap salesmen ever seen in the uk.Equivalent to a £500,000 a year income. Not bad for a geezer from East Ham. Managed to buy outright a house that these days would sell for £1 million+ out of two years savings and spent a vast fortune on expensive cars, expensive booze and at the playboy club in London, the rest he squandered, died without a penny to his name , gave the house to my mother who proceeded to spend the next forty years giving away the assets to whatever bloke took her fancy. Families!
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Post by pete on Sept 1, 2022 7:54:49 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Sept 1, 2022 7:58:54 GMT
Off to Greece at the weekend taking all my children this time both natural and fostered. All have been working on their beach fit appearances and very nice they all look . I've decided to join by working on my beached whale look, it's a work in progress.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Sept 1, 2022 8:07:21 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Well it's a set of mixer taps and hose fittings but I could throw in the sound of a drip if it would clinch the deal Ah well I’m quite sorted for assorted metallic and industrial and other sounds. Blending them in interesting ways with other sounds is more the deal, though can be quite a lot of work. (Then making them respond to my multi-dimensional keyboard thingy…) youtu.be/6SCug5kUsBsBut it’s meybe given you an idea for summat you can do with them if you can’t get rid of them p.s. have a nice time in Greece!
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Post by pete on Sept 1, 2022 8:09:20 GMT
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Post by alec on Sept 1, 2022 8:09:21 GMT
Danny - please stop lying. I have explained to you several times about the sentinel swabbing scheme, part of the normal Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) monitoring scheme, which goes on constantly and pre-dates covid, and I have also explained to you several times about the collection and storage of clinical samples, with retrospective testing being applied to these specifically as part of the covid research, in order to eliminate the dafter ideas that some have about when and where we first suffered from covid. The outcome of these data sources is very, very clear: 1) There was no novel coronavirus outbreak in the UK prior to covid 2) Covid arose in the UK sometime early in 2020, and not in 2019. If it had appeared earlier, it would have been picked up by our rather excellent ILI surveillance systems, which remain one of the best in the world. You are making evidence free assertions, based on amateur epidemiology, where even you admit that waves hit different areas at different times.
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