|
Post by robbiealive on Aug 28, 2022 9:47:09 GMT
It's hard to know which is worse: Truss with a crisis plan, or Truss without one. It would appear that the only viable alternatives are a Starmer-like freeze on the cap or targeted discretionary payments; although it would be difficult to target households on low incomes who are not pensioners or in receipt of benefits?
Her obsession with generalised tax cuts, such as the reversal of NI increases (which are already ameliorated for the majority of households by Sunak's substantial increase in the NI threshold), offers little or nothing to people on low, modest or even average incomes. In the search for solutions she appears trapped by the ideology, or more accurately rhetoric, generated in her leadership campaign and is thus proposing vast tax cuts without getting to the root of the problem, at least as it affects millions of households.
|
|
|
Post by pete on Aug 28, 2022 9:50:49 GMT
Very difficult winter ahead and it's frightening that so many will struggle to provide a basic need - warmth in a cold climate. This is Government failure on an epic scale, and the rot set in the Tory - Lib Dem coalition when Sir Ed Davey flip flopped over fracking and promises of a new series of nuclear power stations (including one in Anglesey near me) came to nothing. Theresa May, then Boris Johnson - same again. No strategy and little delivery of an energy masterplan and the ridiculous concept of heat pumps. Apparently now cheaper to run petrol cars than electric ones as well. What a mess. But the root causes that mean it is so bad in the UK are political and start in 2010. Could it not be argued even earlier? Couldn't nuclear power, wind power, wave power have been pushed much more in the Blair years? I'm not sticking up for the Tories, as I hate them, but as an island surely we could have slowly become energy (regarding heating homes/offices/factories/hospitals) self sufficient years ago with a bit more thought? It might've mean taking on the nutty right-wingers who seem to run are country in the Tory party and press but those scum need putting back in their boxes. Still, I don't really now enough about it, one for scientists like Carfrew etc who understand and know more about it. But I do know were seriously in the shit and relying on idiots to get us out of it.
|
|
|
Post by graham on Aug 28, 2022 10:00:13 GMT
jib You are very keen on blaming the 56 liberal democrats members of the coalition and disregarding the 306 Tories. I wonder why that could be? The root cause of the rot in UK politics started far earlier than 2010 When the republican party in the U.S. and the Thatcher Tories abandoned the post war consensus and embarked on their reverse Robin Hood objectives of stealing from the poor and giving to the rich. I wasn't blaming the Lib Dems specifically, but I would note they did partake quite willingly is in the disemboweling of the UK public sector from 2010-15. Sometimes you don't need to take money from the poor, just take the institutions of state that they rely on away from them. The current energy crisis has been a long time coming. The reason that France can keep energy costs low is that they have something like 80% nuclear derived electric, which only needs more Uranium fuel really. Heaven knows what the UKs "decentralised" "market led" system has. A lot of prematurely shut coal fired power stations being rapidly refurbed from what I hear. Re-the 2010-2015 Coalition. Subsequent events have shown that Osborne's austerity was avoidable. It was scaremongering - as well as being part of a 'smaller state' agenda - to have sold the lie that National Debt levels were not sustainable until reduced by the proceeds of economic growth as happened in the 1950s and 60s. The necessities of Covid and the impending Energy Bills make that period appear years of self imposed economic sadomasochism.It was a political choice - in which the LDs were complicit - not an economic necessity.
|
|
|
Post by jayblanc on Aug 28, 2022 10:02:10 GMT
Remember the idea that it simply wasn't possible for Johnson to get up to any dirty tricks to try to stay in power? The Time's "Inside No.10" column is running with the story that there's a movement forming around the idea that letters of no-confidence can be sent the moment the new Conservative Leader is selected, and then Johnson can be returned to the leadership.
It is unclear what the 'Back Boris' contingent are thinking, as this would inevitably lead to even more delay in addressing the multiple crises Government is 'waiting for the next PM to address'. Perhaps they imagine they can organise an uncontested and immediate reappointment of Johnson. The risk is that they might actually get enough letters to trigger the confidence vote, shooting their new lame duck in the back.
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Aug 28, 2022 10:02:53 GMT
ON - People can be members of the SDLP and Labour Party at the same time such is the link and many are. So, either the report on the proposed constitutional amendment is in error (quite possible), or Conference/NEC is going to have to select which "other" Nationalist parties are to be proscribed, and which are to be acceptable, or the proposed amendment is simply ill thought out posturing.In the current phase of yr campaign against the Labour party (I hesitate to call it a vendetta) you have used the phrases "silly posturing" (twice) and "ill thought out [sic] posturing". I'm not sure what sensible posturing or well-thought-through posturing would look like. Anyway to be helpful: if you continue to post in this vein may I suggest macho posturing: macho I think being the more fashionable qualifier of posturing these days?
|
|
alurqa
Member
Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
Posts: 781
|
Post by alurqa on Aug 28, 2022 10:11:37 GMT
I find it a little worrying that I'm enjoying this conversation about cricket more than any politics. The only thing I know about cricket: The batsman's Holding, the bowler's Willie.
|
|
|
Post by alec on Aug 28, 2022 10:15:05 GMT
colin - I had posted previously about thoughts for a 'business furlough' scheme to enable businesses to mothball and cover standing costs only. They would have to let staff go but could shut down, retaining the ability to reopen quickly once conditions improve. Not ideal, but we need to accept that this is going to be very harsh indeed, and start looking through the crisis to the recovery.
|
|
|
Post by isa on Aug 28, 2022 10:15:56 GMT
I find it a little worrying that I'm enjoying this conversation about cricket more than any politics. The only thing I know about cricket: The batsman's Holding, the bowler's Willie.Other way around, I think.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,402
|
Post by pjw1961 on Aug 28, 2022 10:23:53 GMT
I find it a little worrying that I'm enjoying this conversation about cricket more than any politics. The only thing I know about cricket: The batsman's Holding, the bowler's Willie.Apologies, but you didn't quite know that either ( ) as the batsman in question was Peter Willey. In any event, "The bowlers Holding, the batsman's Willey" is mythical anyway, not having ever been said on air. other than as a joke.
|
|
|
Post by alec on Aug 28, 2022 10:28:17 GMT
On the bright side, a huge boost for the PV industry, with domestic installations trebling, while the latest Contracts for Difference auction yielded 11GW of new wind power at record low prices.
|
|
|
Post by pete on Aug 28, 2022 10:31:41 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2022 10:36:16 GMT
colin - I had posted previously about thoughts for a 'business furlough' scheme to enable businesses to mothball and cover standing costs only. They would have to let staff go but could shut down, retaining the ability to reopen quickly once conditions improve. Not ideal, but we need to accept that this is going to be very harsh indeed, and start looking through the crisis to the recovery. I think unless they do something about the wholesale pricing of domestically produced gas and electricity-ie un hooking it from these crazy world market prices they are staring at disaster of enormous proportions.. Government forced Phasing of domestic and business price rises-either by the bridging loan/two year freeze for domestics , or furlough 2 for business is going to add more significant Debt to UK's debt pile on a punt . A punt that these wholesale prices will abate in a known period of time. No one knows when/if they will abate. Putin is using them to weaken European resolve on support for UKraine. He was flaring gas from a field on the Finnish border just recently -two fingers up to Europeans who think that he is harmed by not supplying us. As I read it about 50% of our gas is imported , either via pipelines to Norway & the Continent, or LNG by tanker. So thats a big chunk we have no control over.
|
|
alurqa
Member
Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
Posts: 781
|
Post by alurqa on Aug 28, 2022 10:43:46 GMT
The only thing I know about cricket: The batsman's Holding, the bowler's Willie.Apologies, but you didn't quite know that either ( ) as the batsman in question was Peter Willey. In any event, "The bowlers Holding, the batsman's Willey" is mythical anyway, not having ever been said on air. other than as a joke. Thanks. I didn't know it wasn't real -- all these years! My research tells me ...[1] was to blame: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0a-FOoM9msHenry Blofeld and Peter Baxter discuss the infamous line, "the bolwer's Holding the batsman's Willey".
[1] I'll not spoil it, watch the clip! :-)
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 28, 2022 10:49:08 GMT
Just cos you’ve never seen ten feet high snow drifts in the Middle Lands. I expect you have exciting stories of your own though: ”Oooooooooh…. I remember once it were raining really heavy and I got a bit wet.” etc etc. Well, since you ask... In the winter of 62-63 I was 11 and one day there was such a heavy snowfall that the buses stopped running. It was 'only' 2 or 3 feet except where it had drifted, but I had to walk home 8 miles home from school with the snow over the top of my wellies. and this was the days when small boys wore shorts until aged about 13. After about 5 miles I stopped at a pub which had a roaring fire and they let me stand in front of it for a bit and gave me a glass of (presumably watered-down) brandy before I walked the last few miles. And then of course there was ice on the bedroom floor as well as the inside of windows. And now people moan because they'll have to turn the central heating down a bit!
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Aug 28, 2022 11:02:35 GMT
You're right of course that the growth of cricket outside of its birthplace in England is a legacy of Empire, but that hangover is all but gone. It thrives in India, Pakistan, Australia, South Africa, NZ etc in its own right. The downside of this limited growth and spread of the game beyond the old colonial countries is that it hasn't really become a global game in the true sense of the word. It's played seriously in only about seven or eight countries in the world, albeit in some very populous ones! India accounts for about 15% of the world's total population. There are 78 countries in the T20 rankings including many continental countries for instance, so it's more extensive than you imply. Admittedly it will be a minority sport in many of these.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,402
|
Post by pjw1961 on Aug 28, 2022 11:08:15 GMT
Apologies, but you didn't quite know that either ( ) as the batsman in question was Peter Willey. In any event, "The bowlers Holding, the batsman's Willey" is mythical anyway, not having ever been said on air. other than as a joke. Thanks. I didn't know it wasn't real -- all these years! My research tells me ...[1] was to blame: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0a-FOoM9msHenry Blofeld and Peter Baxter discuss the infamous line, "the bolwer's Holding the batsman's Willey".
[1] I'll not spoil it, watch the clip! :-)
I went to see Johnners live at the Barbican theatre (with others such as Trevor Bailey and Fred Trueman) on three occasions in the late 80s and early 90s and the great man himself also denied he had said that one. Things that are definitely true (aside from the legendary 'legover' incident) include: "There's Neil Harvey standing at leg-slip, legs spread wide apart, waiting for a tickle" Also an occasion when Glenn Turner took a nasty blow to the 'box' from a fast bowler, collapsed to the ground and had to recover for some time before finally rising to his feet and taking his stance. Brian Johnston announced Turner was ready to resume and then added, "One ball left."
|
|
|
Post by isa on Aug 28, 2022 11:24:42 GMT
Thanks. I didn't know it wasn't real -- all these years! My research tells me ...[1] was to blame: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0a-FOoM9msHenry Blofeld and Peter Baxter discuss the infamous line, "the bolwer's Holding the batsman's Willey".
[1] I'll not spoil it, watch the clip! :-)
I went to see Johnners live at the Barbican theatre (with others such as Trevor Bailey and Fred Trueman) on three occasions in the late 80s and early 90s and the great man himself also denied he had said that one. Things that are definitely true (aside from the legendary 'legover' incident) include: "There's Neil Harvey standing at leg-slip, legs spread wide apart, waiting for a tickle" Also an occasion when Glenn Turner took a nasty blow to the 'box' from a fast bowler, collapsed to the ground and had to recover for some time before finally rising to his feet and taking his stance. Brian Johnston announced Turner was ready to resume and then added, "One ball left." I think he once described byes conceded from the bowling of Bishen Bedi as "Bedi-byes".
|
|
|
Post by alec on Aug 28, 2022 11:36:23 GMT
colin - "I think unless they do something about the wholesale pricing of domestically produced gas and electricity-ie un hooking it from these crazy world market prices they are staring at disaster of enormous proportions.." Yes, I think you are right. Just looking at some numbers and things don't add up. Gas prices have gone from 100p/therm to 500p in the last year, so with 29kWh per therm that means a price rise of 13.79p/kWh for gas. Converting gas to electricity is around 30% efficient, according the BEIS, so that would suggest electricity from gas should be around 42p/kWh dearer. But only half our electricity comes from gas, so that should mean perhaps 21p more per unit of cost on average for UK electricity if we are just looking at the gas surge. On top of that, we produce half of our own gas, so arguably as the costs for this have not risen, a market that functions for the country as a whole might be looking at additional electricity prices of something like 10 - 11p extra. This would have yielded something like a 60% rise in electricity costs over the last year. On top of this, under the Contracts for Difference (CfD) that fund large scale renewables, generators get a guaranteed 'strike price', with the CfD scheme paying the difference if the market reference price falls below the agreed strike price. But if the market reference price exceeds the strike price, as it will do now, then the generators have to pay something back into the scheme, to help keep costs to consumers down. Presumably this will be happening now, so cutting wholesale prices wouldn't affect the CfD generators so badly anyway. I'm seeing business customers now being quoted 60 - 70p/kWh for electricity, so prices have risen by 300 - 400%, so although my calculations will be grossly simplified and not accurate in any level of detail, there seems to something fundamentally wrong here in principle.
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Aug 28, 2022 12:13:55 GMT
Could it not be argued even earlier? Couldn't nuclear power, wind power, wave power have been pushed much more in the Blair years? I'm not sticking up for the Tories, as I hate them, but as an island surely we could have slowly become energy (regarding heating homes/offices/factories/hospitals) self sufficient years ago with a bit more thought? It might've mean taking on the nutty right-wingers who seem to run are country in the Tory party and press but those scum need putting back in their boxes. I'm not often fair to Blair and maybe New Labour could have pushed it more than they did but they were moving in that direction and then all that gradual progress died in 2010 when the Tories got rid of all the Green Crap- feed in tariffs left to the whims of the suppliers, insulation subsidies etc cut to virtually nothing. We were on the point of looking at solar panels for our house when the subsidies dried up. Trimming a 15-20 year payback to, say, 10 years makes it much more appealing "investment". Plus a long term plan and commitment to solar would make companies much more willing to invest in training. alec made an excellent post yesterday that no-one seems to be asking the questions about how the government can gain control over energy, and everything is influenced by neolib free market considerations. A lot of governments (including New Labour) had energy policies seems to have been short term subsidies to get private companies to do something with no return for the government on those subsidies if and when companies are making excess profits.
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Aug 28, 2022 12:36:09 GMT
In the spirit of flagging up issues before they gain notoriety, I'm intrigued by the effect electricity prices will have on the car market. And maybe even, indirectly, on polling.
We seem to have arrived at a point where it costs more in fuel to drive an electric car than most diesels, and some petrol cars.
The best you can expect from an EV driven carefully is around 4 miles per kWh of battery capacity. I've seen a figure of £38 to fully charge a 60kWh battery (much more from a street charger), which would get you a maximum of 240 miles. For £38 I get 21.5 litres of diesel from my local supermarket, which at 70mpg takes me 330 miles, with equally careful driving.
The whole edifice of the forced switch to EVs is built on the twin assumptions of lower running costs and lower environmental costs. If the first of those has disappeared, and the second looks increasingly questionable, then the remaining negatives of a huge purchase price premium and limited range will look less supportable.
I predict a stalling in the surge of EV sales and a Daily Mail-led campaign to drop the 2030 prohibition on new petrol/diesel sales from 2030; perhaps even a 'drivers' revolt'.
|
|
patrickbrian
Member
These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
Posts: 305
|
Post by patrickbrian on Aug 28, 2022 12:59:53 GMT
Somerjohn
"We seem to have arrived at a point where it costs more in fuel to drive an electric car than most diesels, and some petrol cars."
On the other hand, like many households now, we have solar panels on our roof that for at least six months of the year are more than enough to provide our electricity needs (we also have gas). We sell the surplus back to the elec company for a princely 4p a unit. There has been no sign that this sum will go up along with electricity prices generally. An electric car might be a better way to store our surplus charge - for half the year local driving would be almost free.
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Aug 28, 2022 13:55:39 GMT
PatrickBrian: "for half the year local driving would be almost free"
Probably true, but I think the number of people with a large PV array, low electricity usage and an electric car used only locally will be quite small.
For an example of the opposite case, I've just had a look at the fuel records for my most recent trip back from Spain. I see I filled up to the brim in Huesca, in northern Spain, then again in Dieppe, 689 miles later, when the car (the larger of our two, a medium-sized 1.7 diesel estate) took 51.39 litres, which works out at about 61mpg. I hate to think how many stops, at what cost in time, expense and hassle, I would have had to make on that journey in an equivalent electric car.
I have nothing against EVs - I really enjoy driving them - but what interests me is the potential political backlash against forced adoption if the economic case for them evaporates.
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Aug 28, 2022 14:00:10 GMT
I would be fully supportive of Truss's plan to reduce or eliminate VAT.
It is a regressive tax that has nothing to do with wealth or earnings.
As a staunch remainer, I will admit that this would be one - just one - advantage of leaving....the one thing we could do that actually benefits day to day lives.
Someone posted a list of supermarket products that have VAT added.
To give one example, chocolate covered biscuits.
Unless you spend over a fiver on bus fare/petrol to get to the big out of town shops, most of the biscuits are chocolate covered (a constant bugbear for me as I cannot eat chocolate - the same with ice cream), so choice is extremely limited on non-chocolate biscuit products.
The other thing that has got overlooked is that a cut/elimination of VAT will benefit smokers, who tend to be more prevelant among the working class/lower paid.
|
|
|
Post by somerjohn on Aug 28, 2022 14:11:56 GMT
Mark: "To give one example, chocolate covered biscuits."
Are you sure you've thought this through?
How will a cut in vat on chocolate biscuits help you, if your dietary requirements mean you can't eat them? If anything, the availability of non-chocolate biscuits will decline further if the price premium on choc biscuits reduces.
The list of vat-liable 'foods' quoted earlier was pretty much all highly processed junk food. Are you really sure you want to increase the attractiveness of those products relative to fresh, unprocessed products? And is giving a boost to tobacco demand really a good idea?
Finally, the EU minimum rate for standard vat is 15%, so if Truss reduces our rate to that, as mooted, she is doing nothing that couldn't have been done as an EU member.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,402
|
Post by pjw1961 on Aug 28, 2022 14:41:51 GMT
I went to see Johnners live at the Barbican theatre (with others such as Trevor Bailey and Fred Trueman) on three occasions in the late 80s and early 90s and the great man himself also denied he had said that one. Things that are definitely true (aside from the legendary 'legover' incident) include: "There's Neil Harvey standing at leg-slip, legs spread wide apart, waiting for a tickle" Also an occasion when Glenn Turner took a nasty blow to the 'box' from a fast bowler, collapsed to the ground and had to recover for some time before finally rising to his feet and taking his stance. Brian Johnston announced Turner was ready to resume and then added, "One ball left." I think he once described byes conceded from the bowling of Bishen Bedi as "Bedi-byes". He did, only that one was a deliberate joke rather than a gaff. I was also lucky enough to catch the end of John Arlott's time - that man had a genius for words. Even from his last season (1980) I recall his brilliant description of the South African fast bowler Vincent Van Der Bijl, who played the season for Middlesex. "Van Der Bijl, looking like a taller, younger, fitter version of Lord Longford ... (pause) ... Only not so tolerant." You have to be of a certain age to get the joke, although most of us on here are!
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,203
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 28, 2022 15:28:37 GMT
It's hard to know which is worse: Truss with a crisis plan, or Truss without one. One does have some sympathies with this view. I know people complain about how they’re not doing much while pursuing the elongated leadership contest, but on the other hand, it did occur that at least while the hustings are on they aren’t rushing headlong to make things worse. Of course, I was born into the wrong universe and it won’t last…
|
|
|
Post by jib on Aug 28, 2022 15:30:41 GMT
It's hard to know which is worse: Truss with a crisis plan, or Truss without one. One does have some sympathies with this view. I know people complain about how they’re not doing much while pursuing the elongated leadership contest, but on the other hand, it did occur that at least while the hustings are on they aren’t rushing headlong to make things worse. Of course, I was born into the wrong universe and it won’t last… I hear Truss is planning to beam in John Redwood.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,203
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 28, 2022 15:34:07 GMT
One does have some sympathies with this view. I know people complain about how they’re not doing much while pursuing the elongated leadership contest, but on the other hand, it did occur that at least while the hustings are on they aren’t rushing headlong to make things worse. Of course, I was born into the wrong universe and it won’t last… I hear Truss is planning to beam in John Redwood. Well, that’s scary. That said, I did hear him on the radio the other day talking about the evils of austerity. So, scary, but there is a universe in which she beams in Osborne instead.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,203
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 28, 2022 15:34:31 GMT
And another universe where she beams in Clegg as well
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2022 15:37:36 GMT
Ole Batty is probably going to be sick as a parrot and drunk as a skunk by the time he makes his next, post 1-0 Villa thrashing, later today.
|
|