Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 6:28:37 GMT
Leaving the EU has had a miniscule impact compared to COVID or the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war. If you have any facts which you can use to prove a negative impact free of the above influences, please share them. Pound dropped 20% once the brexit decision became real. Balance of payments has deteriorated ever since. Investment in Uk business has collapsed. Shortage of workers has steadily worsened (which of course was a goal of brexit). The Uk has currently worse inflation than comparable countries, and we are heading for being fundamentally worse off. Our 20% fall in real income is probably only the start, as the effects of uncompetitiveness and lack of investment continue to pile up. The war will be having a positive effect in terms of boosting trade in armaments, billions being spent on that by western donors. The two negatives are embargoed russian fuel and now grain from ukraine. The former is more significant, Russia produced 15% of world gas and 13% of world oil, though it isnt clear how much its sales have fallen. To correct that we need to cut gas consumption by 15%, assuming there is no scope to increase production elsewhere. hard to say how much anyone else has already increased production to compensate. There was clearly some scope to increase oil production, gas perhaps trickier because demand has been rising replacing oil and gas by delierate policy. Which brings us to to the fact that fuel prices were already rising before the war began. Thats because of 1) world policy to end fossil fuel usage, which led to fuel companies not developing new resources. 2) two years of lockdown suppression of world industry and world energ demand. During this time suppressed demand continued to rise but production was reduced and no new resources developed. It hid the already growing shortfall. Russia's 15% could have been compensated in a world where we were not already planning to shut down fossil fuel usage. A 15% drop will be compensated by falling demand given the huge price rises, and by efforts to revert to other fuels, so its likely there will be no shortfall this winter. We will however be paying vastly more for that energy because private companies have leveraged the shortage to raise prices. The system has failed consumers disastrously, funnelling profits into a few private hands. What has happened is a failure of the unregulated private sector system adopted by the west. This is not dissimilar to what happened in 2008, where banks realised they could make massive profits at no risk but at the huge expense of the world generally. The banks were absolutely correct they would get away with it, and now continue making vast profits including now from fuel trading. Incidentally, the UK's policy of making massive profits for banks and investors from trading in homes and buildings, has also contributed to the UKs uncompetitiveness, because it increases industry costs significantly. This was a conservative policy to deliberately undermine Uk industry but create a medium term electoral advantage for the conservative party (by giving away national assets and creating private monopolies). This has been undermining the UK since the 80s. Obviously nothing to do with Brexit, except it is part of a pattern of adopting policies which harm the Uk but short term benefit the conservative party.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 6:34:34 GMT
Haven't crunched through the claims and the numbers, but this is interesting on the polling -
If true, it suggests Starmer looking to pick up more direct Con-Lab switchers than Blair managed in '97.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 25, 2022 6:37:16 GMT
Haven't crunched through the claims and the numbers, but this is interesting on the polling - If true, it suggests Starmer looking to pick up more direct Con-Lab switchers than Blair managed in '97. Opinium reported 13% switchers - which is still huge.
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Post by hireton on Aug 25, 2022 6:39:27 GMT
Not sure if this Deltapoll has been posted. 12 pt Labour lead: I obviously bow to the likes of jimjam, neilj and your good self, but I reckon that's four on the bounce where we've had LAB at c40-43% and CON @ c28-32%. Unless I'm misreading the runes completely, the LAB lead seems to be hardening at possibly a consistent 8% plus. Grateful for thoughts of the experts. Not an expert, but I agree with your assessment.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 6:46:14 GMT
Con pushed Brexit. They claimed the sun shone from its ass. That's rubbish. Cameron resisted a referendum as long as he could despite having given a 'cast-iron' guarantee that there would be one, and then reneging at first. Eventually because of the rise of UKIP and other Leave parties he was forced to hold the referendum, and then campaigned for Remain. Once the referendum had been held, it was of course their duty to enact the will of the people. Cameron again reneged, having promised to see it through whatever the result he then promptly resigned. Con opposed brexit until they didnt. The MPs and indeed membership have changed a lot in composition since this became a serious issue, with remainers departing. The party saw it could not win elections without a new gimmick, and the gimmick it chose was brexit. That goes all the way back to 2005 when it started trying to make friendly noises to leave/UKIP. Having lost the referendum, then the party reluctantly agreed to implement brexit because not to do so would have led to electoral collapse. May tried to create a compromise and failed, because there really is no credible compromise, and electoral collapse as well as parliamentary collapse was looming. So they gave in totally and appointed Johnson as PM to be scapegoat. Although by now many will be as trapped in the brexit lies as is he, so who knows what they really think except to admit Brexit is already a disastrous failure isnt electorally possible yet.
Had con chosen to oppose brexit as they believed was best, then it would not have happened but we would have had more labour governments and con opposition. So they ditched principles for power. While the nation is poorer, many key con supporters are richer for their having taken power.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 6:48:49 GMT
alec I suspect the difference fromn '97 is probably accounted for by the Lib dems who routinely polled around 7% higher then. Whether disillusioned Tories end up voting Labour or lib dem the result still looks electorally disastrous for the brexitanian nationalists.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 7:00:29 GMT
Difficult to express just how idiotic this announcement is - www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/routine-covid-tests-in-english-hospitals-to-be-scrapped-next-week?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other We've had three waves in around seven months which have crippled the NHS, and a key need is to be able to catch variants quickly. Alex Selsby has developed a statistical method to predict infection waves from new variants using what he terms as 'variant pressure'. This is a method that looks at the growth advantage of new variants, as calculated from case sequences currently captured from hospital and health sector routine surveillance. What he has found is that this method can predict with good accuracy new waves created by variants from around two months out - so long as we have sufficient testing results to provide the input data, with the wave in cases occurring 4 - 6 weeks after the maximum variant pressure. Currently, he has identified new variant BF.7, which appears to have a substantial growth advantage based on early surveillance data. If this continues, then September see the peak variant pressure, suggesting a major wave is due in mid to late October. Cutting testing now is idiocy of the highest order.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 7:11:51 GMT
Haha, Sunak has gone public saying he always vehemently opposed lockdown on economic grounds, and that SAGE published minutes were edited to remove views opposing lockdowns. No surprise sherlock. alec , dont you get yet that lockdown was chosen almost by accident because there was a lack of real information proving it didnt work, speculation it might work, and then it became a political imperative to prove it was the right decision so as to maintain party voter support?
Very interesting he believes the time has come to speak out against lockdown policy of the previous PM. Which ironically Johnson also opposed, but if peope recall was implemented by cabinet while he was sick.
Cutting testing now is idiocy of the highest order. Testing has never been sufficient in quantity to make a material difference to the progress of the epidemic. At its peak it was just a waste of money because it made no real difference. Billions wasted which could have been spent on hospitals and staff.
Testing should only have been used to diagnose sick people and for statistical sampling to track the size of outbreaks. Some argument about international travel, but we never managed to stop spread of new variants even when we banned international travel and had mandatory testing. It just never worked.
Its an example of the medical industry persuading politicians to buy their products- without evidence of efficacy. Pretty normal in their industry.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 7:19:47 GMT
alec I tend to agree hospital testing as we have quick and reliable tests is valid. Covid, the second worst pandemic of the 21st century, fortunately far behind hiv/aids still the biggest killer of women of child bearing age as it has been for decades, is a significant danger particularly to those over 75 and unvaccinated ( who remarkably given vaccine take up still represent around a third of all deaths) are likely to be heavily represented amongst hospital service users, sensible precautions why not?
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 7:21:53 GMT
@danny - wow! You actually believe what Sunak says?
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 7:25:15 GMT
Attachment DeletedAs an aged SF fan I never thought it would end this way. And so say we all!
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 7:25:50 GMT
@danny - testing; what a thoroughly stupid post. I remain stunned by your idiotic unintelligence.
Testing is vital to organise isolation, which remains one of the best ways of reducing transmission and the social and economic damage of this disease.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 7:30:24 GMT
Covid, the second worst pandemic of the 21st century, fortunately far behind hiv/aids still the biggest killer of women of child bearing age as it has been for decades, is a significant danger particularly to those over 75 and unvaccinated ( who remarkably given vaccine take up still represent around a third of all deaths) are likely to be heavily represented amongst hospital service users, sensible precautions why not? Not really remarkable. One reason older people are given annual flu vaccines is because they dont work very well in older people, whose immune systems are already failing through simple old age plus accumulating other illnesses. Vaccines cannot work better than your own immune system because they make use of it to have their effect.
Its not surprising old people are still dying from covid, because covid has always massively disproportionately only seriously affected old people. An interviewee last week said in particular over 75s were the risk group needing vaccinations. All this intervention was chiefly to protect old and sick people who were getting close to death anyway. It therefore totally ignored normal NHS policy on how to spend money on health care, which is to seek the most cost effective treatments, delivering the most health gain per pound. We totally lost sight of that and are seeing the results now. @danny - wow! You actually believe what Sunak says? I have always believed the money spent on covid interventions failed to deliver health gains comparable to normal NHS spending, so it would always have been better to have ignored covid, just managed cases as they came, and spend the bonus money on the general NHS. Someone whose business was analysising NHS spending published a paper to this effect back in 2020, that intervention offered a very poor health return even on government claimed success figures.
And the separate issue of whether the total cost was affordable by the nation was never addressed in any published information. Sunak confirms it was deliberately suppressed.
@danny - testing; what a thoroughly stupid post. I remain stunned by your idiotic unintelligence. Testing is vital to organise isolation, which remains one of the best ways of reducing transmission and the social and economic damage of this disease. MPs twice issued reports saying test and trace was ineffective. It simply didnt work, so it cannot have been vital for anything except government propaganda that it was doing something. It was political spin and many seem to have fallen for it including the labour opposition. Ironically, probably because they had less inside information, many in labour seem to have believed the propaganda more than con MPS, who you will recall started to revolt against ongoing covid measures which they knew to be pointless.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 7:35:06 GMT
alec I just got a polite word of advice about not actually calling another contributor stupid but possibly implying it.😉 You clearly don't agree with Danny's views, in some instances neither do I,but I've yet to resort to unremitting personal insults, just the occasional foray into abuse! Could you tone it down a bit it's tedious.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 7:43:44 GMT
"British Gas Firm to donate 10% of profits to struggling customers"
I am not entirely sure how centrica would establish who their poorest customers are but it comes to something when a private company appears to have more of a moral compass than the governing regime.
It's not actually remotely as generous as it might appear as British gas retail on which they are basing the figure only amounts to 8% of profits but it's at least something.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 7:44:23 GMT
steve - Danny is being willfully idiotic. It's not an insult. To describe it in any other way would be untruthful.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 7:53:38 GMT
mercian
The reason I replied to your stream of consciousness cascade of posts in the way that I did was that I was struggling to take those I read, which was by no means all, very seriously. However, your self-congratulatory post when you claimed, no doubt semi-humourously, that you'd routed the "lefties" on the forum with your coruscating wit and wisdom was a little risible and deserving of scorn. Whether my post was either a particularly good example of scorn and lampoonery, I doubt very much, but it did seem to stem your seemingly unending flow of unchallengeable wisdom.
But, if you must, I will rise to your challenge of trying to answer one your many brilliant points. Having myself lamented the demise of the political coverage of the nation's public service broadcaster, which is funded by the licence fee paid by myself and most of my fellow citizens, you advised me to stop watching the channel and follow GB News instead. A self avowedly right wing news channel, a la Fox News, that even Andrew Neil, one of its founders, disavowed. Wokewatch with Nigel Farage is your recommendation as an alternative to impartial and independent broadcasting. And you expect to be taken seriously?
The rest of your "points" seemed to be regurgitated GB News type angles on current affairs. Defiant right wing harrumphing that TOH would have been proud of, although one of his saving graces was that he resisted the temptation to rather unattractively congratulate himself all the time.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 7:55:47 GMT
I wonder if you put together ongoing personal support for Johnson, plus the subtext that he plainly never agreed with covid restrictions because he personally was happy for them to be flouted, with Sunak arguing lockdown was a terrible mistake.... then you get a sudden surge for the anti lockdown candidate. Heseltine was right after all, its funny how your adversaries become your friends as the issue changes.
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 7:58:24 GMT
Sunak's record on covid restrictions -
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Post by alec on Aug 25, 2022 8:00:49 GMT
And for perspective -
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Aug 25, 2022 8:05:40 GMT
Oh I do love waking up in the morning, logging on for work and then reading the exchanges between a bunch of insomniacs (I'm normally tucked up in bed by 10.30).
Well it does look Labour's lead is solidifying, but one has to be a bit cautious given that polls are relatively few and far between atm and the genuine volatility in the electorate which seems a feature of the modern political landscape.
I would be very wary of making comparisons between 1997 and today, the country (UK) and electorate (UK) is very different as are the political alignments. Its roughly the same time difference as between 1951 and 1983, and arguably we have witnessed just as much, if not more, change in that period.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 25, 2022 8:07:49 GMT
alec This is what Sunak has said , whether it's reflective of his actual position at the time, who knows he's a tory. But as it stands I am inclined to accept the version he's now spouting as reasonable and proportionate at the time,shame it wasn't acted upon. "Rishi Sunak has claimed that it was a mistake to “empower scientists” during the coronavirus pandemic and that his opposition to closing schools was met with silence during one meeting. The Conservative leadership candidate believes one of the major errors was allowing the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) to have so much influence on decision making such as closing nurseries, schools and colleges in March 2020. Sunak also disclosed that he was banned from discussing the “trade-offs” of imposing coronavirus-related restrictions such as missed doctor’s appointments and NHS waiting list backlogs. In an interview with the Spectator to be published on Saturday, the former chancellor said: “We shouldn’t have empowered the scientists in the way we did. And you have to acknowledge trade-offs from the beginning. “If we’d done all of that, we could be in a very different place. We’d probably have made different decisions on things like schools.” Schools in the UK shut with the exception of those for looking after the children of keyworkers and vulnerable children. Some schools started to reopen in August 2020. " It's a bit more nuanced than the headline implies it's not actually ignoring advice but considering other impacts. Incidentally that doesn't imply I don't think he would be an awful prime minister , but in a choice of two he's marginally less deranged than Truss.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 8:19:23 GMT
isa Re polling, agree with you In the latest 4 polls there have been two Labour leads of 12%, a 10% and 15% lead Plus even under Opiniums new methodology Labour has had an 8% lead, where as it had been on average around 2%-3% Polls have definitely moved, far from getting a boost it appears the more people see of the likely successor Truss, the less they like her Of course Labour have had a good couple of weeks with their new policy and they need to keep the momentum up and the pressure on the tories in the coming months It could all come crashing down for them, infighting is always a worry, but they do have a very big ally, the economy. I can only see it getting worse for the Conservatives It might not just be Truss, but the whole spectacle of the candidates and what they have (had) to say. These are the people making up that formerly united government, who seem to have nothing but contempt for each other. An example of the sort of public division which has oft sunk labour.
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Post by jib on Aug 25, 2022 8:28:53 GMT
alec I just got a polite word of advice about not actually calling another contributor stupid but possibly implying it.😉 You clearly don't agree with Danny's views, in some instances neither do I,but I've yet to resort to unremitting personal insults, just the occasional foray into abuse! Could you tone it down a bit it's tedious. Is that your version of ironic? (Self reflection,). Hilarious.
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Post by jib on Aug 25, 2022 8:30:09 GMT
steve - Danny is being willfully idiotic. It's not an insult. To describe it in any other way would be untruthful. He's a naughty fluffy troll.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 25, 2022 8:34:27 GMT
"Rishi Sunak has claimed that it was a mistake to “empower scientists” during the coronavirus pandemic and that his opposition to closing schools was met with silence during one meeting. To be fair, SAGE papers I read through often stated that their medical advice on how covid might be contained had to be judged alongside other wider considerations, which was a matter for politicians to decide. That they explicitly were not taking into account such considerations or making a recommendation that some action should be taken, only that it was what could be done towards containing covid.
It may be that Sweden's decision to take a much less interventionist course (which ended up better then Uk outcomes) was precisely because the entire decision of whether or not to intervene was placed in the hands of professional medics. Who did therefore take into account wider implications about harm to society. Whereas under our system, the medics never compared the benefits to the harms, while the politicians took a political view they had to be seen to follow medical advice. No one took responsibility.
They never did empower the scientists to make actual decisions.
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Post by laszlo4new on Aug 25, 2022 8:47:24 GMT
Political differences (and perceptions of the social order) would obviously lead to differences in expressions, heated debates, acceptance and rejection of views of others. However, it doesn't need to lead to segregation, aggression, etc. that unfortunately happen even here. All the below are very strongly US focused, and I have some critical points about them, but many elements could easily be transferred, many points are very meaningful, and some here might be interested. Back in 2017 Heineken had an advert campaign ( youtu.be/z3a8MdloAAM ) that was quite a surprise to many (in terms of outcomes). On the 5th anniversary Stanford organised a methodology competition for managing these things. Academics from five other universities evaluated the proposals. Some of these: Democratic Misconceptions (Berkley and MIT): sshs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_88PAor84VsO3X5Y?Condition=Misperception_Democratic&fbclid=IwAR1xtKTOaYKKnhcuNgdy0BnI9Bj4noiR9kKI8ehCOWGFNg6KFAq6Btg4K-0Fear of Democratic Collapse (Stanford): sshs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_88PAor84VsO3X5Y?Condition=Democratic_Fear&fbclid=IwAR2q3X27FZR72opZAAsYdjrXBSGaqP-l2UBrRW9DYsSA2lYIC5MJrzZhWpYElite Cues (Utah): sshs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_88PAor84VsO3X5Y?Condition=Utah_Cues&fbclid=IwAR1NUASbjPa_sFrYDB38WWOkRhZUxyV4a443JHElXU5_XdcZSvFZUwh_Dg4Positive Contact (Harvard, and the Heineken one mentioned above): sshs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_88PAor84VsO3X5Y?Condition=Contact_Project&fbclid=IwAR0fiRPdZ3GAE2FJHL0kppBwmv2e53G6wX4PggypOTPj4EQ53p5jUhhRFhUMisconception Film (5 universities): sshs.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_88PAor84VsO3X5Y?Condition=Misperception_Film&fbclid=IwAR1NUASbjPa_sFrYDB38WWOkRhZUxyV4a443JHElXU5_XdcZSvFZUwh_Dg4There are more details, papers and videos about the competition: www.strengtheningdemocracychallenge.org
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 25, 2022 8:56:19 GMT
Isn't Sunak just politicking here and his recent utterances on his attitude to lockdown restrictions during the pandemic should be treated in that context? Taken with large pinches of salt too?
He's in the middle of a contest for the Tory leadership in which he appears to be floundering. He knows that a good chunk of the Tory membership are Telegraph reading lockdown sceptics and he's attempting, somewhat desperately and belatedly, to be their lockdown sceptic candidate.
I suggest we all wait, probably many years alas, for the Public Inquiry to give us the definitive account of who said what and when during the pandemic.
In the meantime, I'd treat Sunak's recent words with great scepticism.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 25, 2022 9:06:38 GMT
On the subject of the EU referendum and whether it was the will of the people. Leave got the most votes with Remain second and abstentions third but roughly three blocks of votes. But the abstentions might well not have been Don’t Care they might have been Don’t Know and as such might now go Leave or Remain now they have more info Personally the ref should have been set up from the start to have a confirmation vote to see what the Will of the People actually was after all the negotiations
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 25, 2022 9:15:03 GMT
Re brexit those who voted leave gave a blank cheque to the tory Government to have the Brexit they wanted. It was clear to me if Leave won then Cameron couldn't stay, it would be politically impossible. The only surprised I had was that Johnson didn't win the leadership in 2016, but post leave winning the referendum the direction of travel for the tories was clear I didn't trust the tories, others obviously did
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