c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2022 21:35:28 GMT
Carfrew: "a mobile launch system which can be packed into a dozen shipping containers and taken anywhere in the world.... One container holds the 22.7m-tall XL rocket" The longest shipping container is 40 feet (12.2m). Of course, by 'shipping container' they may mean not a shipping container, ie the familiar standard steel boxes, but a bespoke box 25m or so long. Or they may mean the rocket is dismantled into three or more shorter sections. In which case, I hope their engineering is a bit more precise than their language. Good spot, SJ. On the website it says: “ All of the engineering systems of the launch site are of a modular design. Any module size will not exceed a standard 40ft ISO container. Launch vehicle and spacecraft assembly and testing is achievable through rapid erectable methods of construction, whereby the launch pad for the orbital launch vehicle is a sectional and portable unit.” it’s a 3-stage rocket, I think, maybe can fit stages in separate containers, or even side-by-side in one container?
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Post by alec on Aug 22, 2022 21:47:10 GMT
@danny - "This winter it will be treated like seasonal flu.
Zoe data shows the most recent peak of cases has now fallen back to the background 1.5 million concurrent cases or so which has existed all summer. Truth may well be that in a normal year there would be plenty of flu cases all summer, but hardly anyone would notice they were infected. Had anyone bothered to test, no doubt there would be plenty of deaths 'with flu' in a normal summer just as we now have 'with covid'.
We have to forget about covid and concentrate on diseases we can do something about."
You're still being a complete arse, I notice.
Several points: !) Current government policy is to treat covid with less intervention than flu. 2) No, truth is that in a normal year we have very little flu circulating in summer. We know this because i) people don't have symptoms and ii) because - guess what - we test for flu year round. Amazing! 3) Because we test for it, we know how many people die of and with flu. Even more amazing.
Almost as amazing as some people's ability to post endlessly on a topic they know absolutely nothing about.
BTW - Did you come back with the evidence on your witless assertion that covid regulations required a negative test result to be included on death certificates and therefore counting as a covid death, or was that just another lie? Just going quiet for 24hrs doesn't make the rest of us forget you know.
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Post by somerjohn on Aug 22, 2022 22:09:11 GMT
Carfrew: "it’s a 3-stage rocket, I think, maybe can fit stages in separate containers, or even side-by-side in one container?"
Yup. I expect that's it.
Nice to get a reasoned response, btw. I was bracing for a "dreary nitpicking, get a life" type reaction.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,190
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 22, 2022 22:30:03 GMT
Carfrew: "it’s a 3-stage rocket, I think, maybe can fit stages in separate containers, or even side-by-side in one container?"Yup. I expect that's it. Nice to get a reasoned response, btw. I was bracing for a "dreary nitpicking, get a life" type reaction. No probs. It all seems to be progressing apace in various different ways - now Norfolk are looking at an offshore launch site: www.edp24.co.uk/news/business/gravitilab-space-port-plans-9133006
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Post by isa on Aug 22, 2022 22:40:21 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @redfieldwilton · 11m Labour leads by 12%, largest lead since Boris Johnson's resignation. Westminster Voting Intention (21 August): Labour 43% (+2) Conservative 31% (-3) Liberal Democrat 13% (+1) Green 5% (–) SNP 5% (+1) Reform UK 3% (–) Other 2% (-1) Changes +/- 14 August At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better PM for the United Kingdom? (21 August) Starmer 36% (-1) Truss 35% (-6) Don't Know 29% (+7) Still possibly MOE, but if memory serves, that's two, possibly three, recent polls where there has been a noticeable uptick for LAB and corresponding downturn for CON, in a short period of time, and following the LAB energy assistance announcement. Again, Just For Fun, Electoral Calculus suggests a comfortable LAB OM of 46 on these figures. Still many surprising LAB gains, including both Bournemouth seats, which would be a first. JRM would also be off to the Job Centre.
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Post by isa on Aug 22, 2022 23:04:56 GMT
“ I keep a spreadsheet of UK GEs and amongst other things I track average votes per seat.” Sad…. Possibly in the real world but surely not a forum for election geeks? I have books and spreadsheets with every individual constituency GE and by-election result since 1832. Picking one up and opening at a random page: Shaftesbury 1841 Electorate 497 Lord Howard (Lib) 219 GB Mathew (Con) 202 Lib gain from Con That sounds literally fascinating to me. I obviously need to get out more! I blame taking British Constitution as an additional O - Level in the Lower Sixth for sparking off my interest in matters psephological. Haven't been able to kick it since!
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Post by isa on Aug 22, 2022 23:19:45 GMT
UK Natural Gas futures up by 32% today, to £6.08 per therm. That compares with £1.07 a year ago. and 9.6p on 29 May 2020. I don't think people have really taken on board the full, awful magnitude of that change. Nor, I think, are many aware of just how dependent on gas we have been left by Thatcher's "dash for gas". Having said that, I suspect we will see an equally precipitate fall after the winter, as LNG supplies flood in in response to the price bonanza. Either that, or market forces don't work as advertised. Let's hope you're right. A pundit (didn't catch the name) on Sky earlier thought eye-watering high energy prices might last for a couple of years. Heaven only knows what effect that might have on the public (electorate) and the economy generally by then without mitigation from whatever quarter.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 22, 2022 23:33:54 GMT
Regarding space ports, a new development: apparently a British firm has developed… a mobile spaceport. (which, let’s face it, is a little bit Thunderbirds) “ The UK has never sent a rocket into space from home turf. Every British satellite currently in orbit has left the planet from foreign soil — often blasting off from somewhere in America, or Kourou in French Guiana, or Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.Not to mention (because they didn't!) our only UK-only satellite launch -- Blue Streak -- in the early 1970s from Woomera in Australia. As to Skyrora, did you see their recent static fire test on top of a couple of shipping containers? :-) www.space.com/skyrora-rocket-engine-static-fire-testBritish rocket startup Skyrora aces key engine test ahead of 2023 debut launch British rocket startup Skyrora completed a static fire engine test of the second stage of its orbital rocket, potentially paving the way for a debut launch in 2023.
The test, which the company described as the "largest integrated stage test" conducted in the U.K. in 50 years, took place at the Machrihanish Airbase on the Mull of Kintyre peninsula in Scotland.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 22, 2022 23:49:22 GMT
Carfrew: "it’s a 3-stage rocket, I think, maybe can fit stages in separate containers, or even side-by-side in one container?"Yup. I expect that's it. Nice to get a reasoned response, btw. I was bracing for a "dreary nitpicking, get a life" type reaction. No probs. It all seems to be progressing apace in various different ways - now Norfolk are looking at an offshore launch site: www.edp24.co.uk/news/business/gravitilab-space-port-plans-9133006I think we may be starting to climb the Hype Curve. Now SpaceX and RocketLab have created reliable, repeatable launch services it seems every man and his dog wants to play! I don't know how many of these new offerings will come to fruition, but I think it's too early in the small satellite launch market to offer enough demand for all these players, so some will definitely go to the wall, often, I suspect, before they've even become operational. After all, unless they can seriously undercut the charges of SpaceX and RocketLab, why would you use them? I don't know what their prices are, by the way, but if you are lauching a 10,000 kg rocket and you just need a bit more methane to send 10,010 kg, how much is that going to add to the flight? It will be interesting to see how the market pans out, but I think much of this is more hype than reality.
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Post by eor on Aug 23, 2022 0:24:54 GMT
domjg Ah yes, old CBX1985 was a bit of a case. He got rumbled on the old board and was unmasked as a faux Remainer. He used to claim to have voted remain in the 2016 Referendum and to have subsequently become resigned, stoically and reluctantly, to Brexit. Accordingly he urged us all "to get over it", like he had, and to concentrate instead on making Brexit work. Unfortunately for old CBX, some diligent poster identified someone, using exactly the same moniker, as being an ardent Brexiteer on another forum during the referendum campaign. It seemed like he was trying to have his cake and eat it with us naïve and credulous dupes. After the unmasking and shaming we heard no more from him. I rather miss him and he certainly used to take me in with his tales from the campaign doorstep in deeply pro-Labour parts of Wales. He regaled us with stories of him taking the Tory message into hostile territory, detecting a slow turning of the tide for his beloved Blues. Go left on economics, he used to say, and right on culture and the future will be blue. He saw no future for Labour, just doom and more doom. Sadly, it turned out that he was pulling our plonkers all along. I wonder if he's on Truss's campaign team? I wonder if cbx1985 is with us still but sailing under another name. Who do you think that is and what is the evidence you're providing to support that insinuation?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2022 5:40:01 GMT
No, truth is that in a normal year we have very little flu circulating in summer. We know this because i) people don't have symptoms and ii) because - guess what - we test for flu year round. Amazing! 3) Because we test for it, we know how many people die of and with flu. There is no random testing for flu any more than for covid. Government has cancelled its funding for general covid testing, although it seems people entering hospital are still being automatically screened. So we have numbers for people in hospital who happen to have asymptomatic covid but not flu. Approximately everyone who catches flu does not die from it, especially in summer. I deliberately put it like that because you choose to start discussing flu deaths rather flu cases.I hope you aren't going to start claiming we now need annual lockdowns to tackle winter flu each year, which of course would be the obvious corollary of your approach to covid. Flu causes seasonal winter deaths in the uk, but no one was or is monitoring mild cases, anything from wholly asymptomatic to taking to your bed but short of seeking medical intervention. Not even in winter do we measure anything except serious cases requiring intervention. The reason this is a winter event is because the bad weather makes symptoms worse and encourages spread as we close windows and huddle indoors. But humans also turn down their immune systems as day length shortens and we get less sun. we get worse symptoms because our bodies allow infections to take more hold. However these viruses cannot exist outside of hosts for any significant time. There must therefore be constant new cases all year round or it would die out. This brings us back to the debate on what proportion of covid cases are asymptomatic, which is pretty big and seems to have surprised medics. It shouldn't have because all these illnesses must be able to spread in a way we don't really notice we are infected. I posted that on ukpr one or two years ago when I came across it. I dont recall you challenging it? Best i could figure government wanted every covid test performed reported where the patient concerned had died. So reporting suspicions of covid too. However one of the preferred government reported deaths data clearly states it is persons with ANY reference to covid on the death cert. While deaths within 28 days has the similar problem that it makes no distinction between fatal or incidental infections. Both key measures are biased to include incidental cases.
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 5:57:41 GMT
@danny - "There is no random testing for flu any more than for covid."
Ah!
So alongside not understanding how death certificates work, you also don't have a clue about our flu surveillance system.
You seem remarkably unembarrassed as you parade your deep and persistent ignorance on here.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2022 6:10:10 GMT
Listening to news I don't honestly see how anyone can believe con have any chance of winning the next election, short some massive event intervening. Everything in the pipeline for the next two years is bad news.
This morning farming today was reporting the ongoing farm labour shortage despite wages for all workers having risen. Interviewee was demanding further relaxation of immigration rules which continue to restrict supply despite wage rises.
British airways just cancelled millions of flight spaces over winter, which seems to be because of labour shortages. Themselves and airports. Not clear to what extent inability of government to processes vetting applications is contributing because of inadequate numbers of civil servants - oh it's policy to sack more of them too. Maybe BA is also expecting a recession and drop in demand.
yesterday energy expert said 10% chance of unplanned power cuts next winter. Planned cuts to industry are inevitable, though it seems industry is also shutting down voluntarily because of costs.
This problem has been known for nearly a year now. That's a long enough time to have fast tracked more renewables installation or home insulation to have made an actual difference. Nope, con cancelled programs designed to encourage these. Government knew the problem was coming but did nothing. Unless you count allowing the current crisis to spread boosting profits to energy companies and futures markets.
Con government as policy seems to have taken decisions over the last 12 years which created the current crisis. On taking office they pushed austerity which nearly created a second recession. Their non redistribution policies have created a fall in wages for half the population (rise for othet half) which has prepared the background situation for mass strikes because workers cannot accept more wage cuts now.
Energy policy ordered closure of oil and coal sources, pushing demand for the least polluting gas but failed to ensure supply. No policy to ensure enough replacement renewables.
Brexit is a catastrophic but deliberate loss of national wealth and competitiveness.
Managing covid through enforced lockdowns squandered half a trillion pounds and quite possibly made the death toll worse.
The Ukraine war could have been prevented had we actively and publicly supported Ukraine last year and ever since the invasion of crimea.
And then we are seeing the failure of the conservative privatisation policy which has involved everything from energy to water to housing to public transport to the NHS. All the key essentials. leaving it to private industry has simply failed yet policy hasn't changed.
Time to understand con policy is at the root of our current national problems? penny dropping for voters?
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 6:14:21 GMT
@danny - "I posted that on ukpr one or two years ago when I came across it. I dont recall you challenging it?"
Well post it again - it won't be hard to find.
I posted two sources which directly contradicted the nonsense you posted, so either withdraw or show your evidence.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2022 6:23:42 GMT
@danny - "I posted that on ukpr one or two years ago when I came across it. I dont recall you challenging it?" Well post it again - it won't be hard to find. I posted two sources which directly contradicted the nonsense you posted, so either withdraw or show your evidence. which are those? I responded to the last I saw from you. I keep debunking links you post which on examination fail to support the point you believe they do. I don't have time to repeatedly look up references you don't take into account anyway. Go look through ukpr for the links, which related to the special regulations introduced for reporting of covid deaths and what must be recorded on death certificates. Any covid test even if negative must be recorded if it happened during final illness.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 23, 2022 6:28:00 GMT
Possibly in the real world but surely not a forum for election geeks? I have books and spreadsheets with every individual constituency GE and by-election result since 1832. Picking one up and opening at a random page: Shaftesbury 1841 Electorate 497 Lord Howard (Lib) 219 GB Mathew (Con) 202 Lib gain from Con That sounds literally fascinating to me. I obviously need to get out more! I blame taking British Constitution as an additional O - Level in the Lower Sixth for sparking off my interest in matters psephological. Haven't been able to kick it since! Let me bring joy to your heart - and maybe to that of a few others. The books cost a fortune these days but you can get the full results of every GE since 1918 (including the 1918 Irish results which I've not found elsewhere) in a spreadsheet free of charge here: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7529/commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8647/#fullreportMy only complaint is that each election doesn't have a consistent layout of columns so a little work is needed if you want to compile the results for a particular constituency. My books (FWS Craig's series which was continued by Rallings and Thrasher) also have candidates' names and the like.
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 6:44:37 GMT
@danny - stop lying. You said "No. covid regulations specify that even a test which found a patient not to have covid must be entered on the death cert. That counts as a mention on the cert- that they didn't have it!!!" on 11.40am Aug 19th. I challenged you, because this is nonsense.
You have not responded.
So again, either withdraw this false statement or provide the evidence, and this time don't lie about it.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2022 6:46:11 GMT
Danny
It's quite possible power cuts will be avoided this winter as millions of the population are unable to afford to use power in the first place.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2022 6:49:47 GMT
alec Maybe you could consider a special discussion , where you can insult Danny and he can post delusional references to a virus in the U.K. that didn't exist at the time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2022 6:54:04 GMT
@danny - stop lying. You said "No. covid regulations specify that even a test which found a patient not to have covid must be entered on the death cert. That counts as a mention on the cert- that they didn't have it!!!" on 11.40am Aug 19th. I challenged you, because this is nonsense. You have not responded. So again, either withdraw this false statement or provide the evidence, and this time don't lie about it. Alec - what is the fucking point? Just stop.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 23, 2022 6:55:27 GMT
www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/23/energy-use-is-a-decision-for-individuals-insist-no-10-and-truss-alliesThat's nice so it will be a personal decision when working families decide that feeding the kids is more important than keeping them warm, when elderly decide that keeping the fire on is too expensive , when dying of hypothermia is free and when businesses decide well fuck it let's just turn the lights off and give up. It's these deranged right wing brexitania unhinged zealots that have turned this country into the miserable diminished place it's become.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2022 7:00:15 GMT
isa
Just noticed in your post to pjw1961 that you sat a British Constitution A/O Level in the lower sixth at school. I did too and you're one of very few people I know, beyond my small number of fellow students at the time, who did too!
I was doing a reverse Truss at the time and taking a different political course to my parents, but their Tory political activism had already aroused a strong interest in politics. That and a truly inspirational teacher who taught me the British Constitution syllabus, hooked me for life. Ironically, in the light of my moniker/nickname on this forum, his name was Mr Batty.
Most of my teachers at the Catholic public school I attended were either priests and monks, but Mr Batty, one of the small number of lay teachers on the staff, was a one off. Left wing politically and the founder of our cherished Sunday football club; a refuge for lovers of the round ball winter game in a school that only played rugby union and hockey. He purloined a pitch for us in the far corner of the vast sports fields and even managed to arrange some fixtures too. Sporting heresy tolerated with reluctance by the school.
I have much to thank Mr Batty for. We used to chat about politics and sport endlessly and I greatly looked forward to his lessons on British Constitution. My only A grade too in a set of fairly middling O level results that disappointed both my teachers and parents!
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 7:03:21 GMT
nickp and steve - perhaps I am mistaken, but I believe it is important for everyone to refuse to accept fake news and those that deliberately peddle it. @danny and people like him are deliberately spreading falsehoods, and I don't think we should sit back and accept this without challenge. Having said that, I feel that @danny has been thoroughly exposed now on this specific lie, so I've done my bit and will let it rest.
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 7:04:48 GMT
"I was doing a reverse Truss at the time...."
5.7, 5.7, 5.4, 5.9, 5.9, 5.8.
Top scoring there for the Reverse Truss. If she had added the pike it might have been gold!
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2022 7:06:28 GMT
Danny It's quite possible power cuts will be avoided this winter as millions of the population are unable to afford to use power in the first place. Yes, the market response. I have yet to see any estimates of actual shortfall of gas supply (it seems there isn't a shortfall in oil or coal?) and therefore how much world demand needs to drop. What is very obvious is that announcing new nuclear plant isn't going to solve anything, though might buy a departing minister a directorship for his political retirement. Government currently using the excuse of the leadership election to do nothing and announce nothing. If the policy is not to intervene, most likely outcome, then it is better if that's expressed as no decision yet rather than clear decision to pass on the cost of brexit to voters through inflation unmatched by pay rises. That is clearly the policy. Interesting hearing union rep making very good case employers are profiteering in currently refusing pay rises matching inflation. Obviously not all, but if you stop and think then swathes of our industry are dedicated to providing services to rich clients at the expense of their employees.
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Post by alec on Aug 23, 2022 7:07:29 GMT
steve - leaving energy saving strategy to 'personal responsibility', as they have done with covid, just exposes the mind numbing extremist ideology we are labouring under. They simply cannot accept there is a role for concerted government action, whatever the nature and scale of the issue.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 23, 2022 7:14:13 GMT
@danny and people like him are deliberately spreading falsehoods, and I don't think we should sit back and accept this without challenge. I have never posted anything on ukpr/ukpr2 which I believe to be untrue or misleading. Sometimes over simplified for brevity. There is a very clear case that covid started in the uk in 2019, probably in several places one of which was Hastings where I happen to live so caught the illness then and know something of local events. It is enormously important people understand this fact and the implications that follow from the illness having always been self limiting no worse than happened despite all the costly interventions. They were a terrible self imposed economic catastrophy. Both lab and con are implicated in this, though obviously it was con who chose to go for lockdown to try to eradicate covid (as distinct from a precaution to prevent hospital overload in the 2020 spring surge). Suppression really never worked and could never work because we have such an interlinked society mutually dependant on tens of millions continuing to interact. But worse than what could be described as an initial honest mistake, they are now politically unable to admit that it was
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Aug 23, 2022 7:17:58 GMT
@danny 'There is a very clear case that covid started in the uk in 2019, probably in several places one of which was Hastings where I happen to live so caught the illness then and know something of local events'
You should of told us before, that's really important information...
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2022 7:28:53 GMT
"I was doing a reverse Truss at the time...." 5.7, 5.7, 5.4, 5.9, 5.9, 5.8. Top scoring there for the Reverse Truss. If she had added the pike it might have been gold! I thought you were listing my O Level results for a bit!! Grades 1-6 being the pass grades.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 23, 2022 7:31:55 GMT
@danny 'There is a very clear case that covid started in the uk in 2019, probably in several places one of which was Hastings where I happen to live so caught the illness then and know something of local events' You should of told us before, that's really important information... I wonder whether the invading Normans brought it to the town? Harold could do little to keep the contagion from our shores. There were clues in the Bayeux Tapestry with many of the characters depicted in that extraordinary piece of work appearing to socially distance themselves. Martial archery is a good example of their attempt to avoid hand to hand combat.
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