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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2022 15:11:38 GMT
This prolonged and total unnecessarily dragged out selection with a zombie corrupt sitting government is infuriating.
Several more weeks the country can't afford of self indulgent Tory on Tory bullshit.
One of them should stand aside, it's pathetic.
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Post by alec on Aug 9, 2022 15:13:57 GMT
Truss accusing Sunak of being a "declinist".
The Brexit Boosterism Well hasn't yet run dry, it seems.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2022 15:19:59 GMT
Ormerod could have just written "All politicians end in failure" and saved me the time. The next article about middle aged women not wanting sex was far more interesting. I suppose he could have quoted Powell - "All political lives, unless they are cut off in midstream at a happy juncture, end in failure, because that is the nature of politics and of human affairs." * But then he wouldn't have written his thought provoking book. Which you are not obliged to read. *The quote in full came from Powell’s biography of the 19th century statesman Joseph Chamberlain.
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 9, 2022 15:40:35 GMT
Taken from Wiki: "Realpolitik refers to enacting or engaging in diplomatic or political policies based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors" . Taken from The Guardian 4th July 2022 The current deal had “created a hulking fatberg of red tape and bureaucracy, one that is hampering the flow of British business”, Starmer said. “We will break that barrier down, unclog the arteries of our economy and allow trade to flourish once more.” However, he stressed that that any debate on rejoining the EU would be to “look back over our shoulder” and jeopardise public faith in politics, adding: “So let me be very clear: with Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union.” Ben Bradshaw, the Exeter MP and former minister who is a leading pro-EU voice in the Labour party, said Starmer’s approach was “absolutely right”. He said: “There is no prospect of us rejoining the EU, single market or customs union anytime soon, not least because [Boris] Johnson has so completely destroyed trust with our European neighbours that any such move would be on far worse terms than those we had before we left. “There is, however, plenty that we can do to reduce the enormous damage being done to our economy and our relationship with our allies, by fixing the many problems with Johnson’s botched Brexit deal.” This energy-sapping, soul-destroying endless debate, not least on here, has gone on for six long years. I think Starmer is absolutely right to seek to ameliorate the damage caused by the Tories hard Brexit. That's Labour's short-term goal as part of their strategy to salvage the economy and resolve the cost of living crisis. Where will we be in 10 years time? Who knows So real politik means taking account of the real world. And apparently brexit was about stopping foreigners so we can pay our low paid care workers more, use good old British fruit pickers, and fill all those NHS vacancies with people who live here. Hmm. Care homes are reducing the number of people they will take because they can't afford to put up their wages, and now have fewer workers. No British worker wants to pick fruit, and we now get a very limited number of fruit pickers from Uzbekistan; we can't get more because the government refuses to increase the number of visas, believing British workers must take these posts. But, two and a half years later, they still refuse. And the NHS can't fill its vacancies because it hasn't got enough money. So discussions about not rejoining the customs union, refusing freedom of movement of people or keeping out of the single market fail completely to address the elephant in the room -- we need more foreigner workers. At what point will real politik force Labour to tell this to the public? Or are we to continue refusing to be honest with the public, because they don't like the message, and let the country sink further and further into the mire? Do we have to wait for the public to lead the politicians by the nose when the lies of the Daily Mail are visible even to the most enthusiastic brexiter before anybody grows a pair and tells us that we are no longer a world power, and we continue (because politics trumps economics) to negotiate very poorly with the rest of the world? www.politico.eu/article/britain-business-balk-quick-trade-deal-india-liz-truss/UK business fears quick-win trade deal with India India and the UK are aiming for a deal by Diwali — but businesses aren’t so sure.www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1556761/liz-truss-australia-trade-deal-brexit-update-national-farmers-unionFurious farmers lash out at Australia trade deal with stinging criticism of Liz Truss LIZ TRUSS's free trade pact with Australia faced renewed criticism from farmers today as they attacked the agreement for not being "a particularly good deal".
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Post by alec on Aug 9, 2022 15:42:27 GMT
Interesting that Sunak is going for a targeted approach to specific groups in need, more like a Labour Gordon Brown approach, whereas Truss is smoking from the small state/slash taxes pot, offering a more stridently ideological edge to her proposals.
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Post by moby on Aug 9, 2022 15:44:18 GMT
Good afternoon all Lovely day here, does not feel like a crisis-hit town at the moment on the beaches. Did anyone catch the Radio 4 programme with Jonathan Freedland this morning after the end of The Today Prog? It was half an hour of excellent history with Ann Perkins on Ramsay Mac, and then a Professor of History (Nottingham, I think). The theme was the Labour Party. and the trade unions, looking at how Macdonald tried to deal with the 1926 Strike and Neil Kinnock's difficulties with the 1984-1985 Coal Strke. (freedlan's father lived in sunny Bournemouth and Stephen Kinnock is MP for Aberavon, which will probably remain Labour even if the poll (voodoo?) showing Truss ahead of Starmer as best PM remains accurate. Glanced at my old copy of 'Nineteen eighty four' in the small hours; a book which meant that Orwell was cancelled by friends such as the editor of the New Statesman has that phrase 'non word' alongside 'thought crime'. Richard Burton (was called Jenkins before being adopted by his English teacher here in Aberavon) zooms in on Hurt's Winston for a 'non -word' in an article in The Times has a modern feel to it after a party rally. Lady Valerie: hello and please keep going. Ad homniem or ad mueliam attacks are not good. Yes it was interesting but I would have liked some sort of analysis to pull the narrative together for Starmers benefit perhaps. Talking of Burton, I saw him recently with Edith Evans in 'The Last Days of Dolwyn'. A distant relative of mine, (Emlyn Williams) was the director. He was my grandmothers first cousin and he came to our house a few times for tea. The family were always sad for the chauffeur who waited outside guarding the Rolls so I was tasked with taking him tea and a piece of cake.
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Post by alec on Aug 9, 2022 15:50:41 GMT
Something significant kicking off in Ukraine: This morning there were credible reports, now apparently confirmed, of a Ukrainian strike on a major Russian ammunition depot in Novooleksiivka, Kherson Oblast. The significance is that this is c 150km behind enemy lines, well beyond the range of any accurate systems that Ukraine has currently been supplied with, publicly at least. Early speculation suggested this could be a lucky strike with one of their less accurate cruise missiles, or action by partisans, or some lax Russian management practices.
However, this afternoon there are fresh reports of an attack on the Russian airforce base at Saki, in west central Crimea, over 200km from the front line. Again, the cause is unclear, but this really does now look like Ukraine has a major new edge in the conflict, with the ability to direct precision strikes hundreds km behind Russian lines.
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Post by alec on Aug 9, 2022 15:55:50 GMT
And back on covid - new work suggesting that BA2.75 is more contagious than BA5, more severe, and that it evades immunity from BA5. This could be the next wave, although other candidate strains are already available.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2022 16:25:31 GMT
Since any indy referendum (should it occur) would be an entirely Scots one, those in rUK should be even less involved than the EU was in 2016, since the result would not bind the sovereign UK Parliament, so her views are somewhat irrelevant. A pity you didn't add this rider a couple of hours ago when you started this discussion by openly inviting speculation as to the motivation of her views; we could probably both have done more productive things with the time. There are probably innumerable things more productive than debating on UKPR!
However, when the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party comments on an existential political issue, it is worth examining what she said, what her target audience was, and what effect she intended to have. Because I think she is a serious politician, I credit her with having considered those factors and not just blethering on.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 9, 2022 16:48:57 GMT
"Sunak defended his decision to tell an audience in Tunbridge Wells that he deserved credit for diverting funding away from “deprived urban areas” to places like theirs. He said he was making the point that poverty was not just urban. " Indeed
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 9, 2022 16:50:52 GMT
alec I don't think you're ever very far from covid.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2022 16:53:55 GMT
oldnat I mentioned before the inclination to regard only your favourite party as the genuine article and in the case of you and the SNP the only genuine progressive left of centre party in Scotland. It clearly isn't and it's a nonsense just as it is in England with the far left to pretend somehow that Labour is right wing simply because they disagree in this incidence on secession. Similarly while I despair of Labour's leadership current position on Brexit and fptp, it doesn't mean I think they are Tories, it just happens that locally I have a better fit party for my politics who stand a chance of electoral victory under fptp here. I think you've made it abundantly clear that you would prefer removing Scotland from the U.K. that doesn't require that you lump all U.K. wide parties that disagree into an amorphous pro union blob. By the way I may have been mistaken but did you suggest that a referendum in Scotland should just be for the Scottish? How is this even possible given that no one currently holds Scottish nationality, iro 20% of the population of Scotland were born in other parts of the UK and iro 20% born in Scotland live in England. Not a criticism just wondering how you think it might work? Yes. You were mistaken. I said that "any indy referendum (should it occur) would be an entirely Scots one". That is one legislated for by the Scottish Parliament, inviting the Scots electorate to express their view on the independence question. That Scots electorate includes anyone living in Scotland, with a legal right to be here, which means many who have no British citizenship, and are citizens of other states.
You are also mistaken in imagining that I think that "the SNP the only genuine progressive left of centre party in Scotland." SGP are more of a "genuine progressive left of centre party" than the SNP - though both are more so than SLab in my opinion. The SNP are a vehicle to gain independence and the largest party in Scotland, so they currently get my FPTP vote, but my List vote goes SGP. Those living in a polity where only FPTP voting exists may find this unusual, I accept, but it's quite normal here and in other polities with an Additional Member System.
Another mistake you make is to imagine that I "lump all U.K. wide parties that disagree [with Scots indy] into an amorphous pro union blob." On other axes of political ideas, they can have wide differences, but on the single issue of maintaining the unity of the current UK of GB & NI, they are indistinguishable.
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Post by alec on Aug 9, 2022 17:26:14 GMT
steve - re your gag about artisan bakers: In our village, we have an artisan baker who is also a practicing therapist. I was feeling low, so booked a session. When I arrived, she told me to lie down on the couche. One for the bakers, I think.
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Post by jib on Aug 9, 2022 17:40:19 GMT
ladyvalerie “There is, however, plenty that we can do to reduce the enormous damage being done to our economy and our relationship with our allies, by fixing the many problems with Johnson’s botched Brexit deal.” The problem with this approach is that everyone with a functional brain cell knows that the best way to mitigate the damage is to seek single market arrangements, this doesn't actually require trust by the European union just compliance with the terms agreed by the U.K. If a future Tory regime renege on it then they will be culpable of yet more self inflicted damage, but that isn't a reason not to do it. Ruling it out makes Labour complicit in the continuing damage. Single market arrangements (equivalence) or join the Single Market? Joining the Single market means Freedom of Movement which is a big reason for the Brexit vote. In fact, it was probably one of the main reasons amongst Labour leavers. Starmer wisely wants these back on board, whilst Labour Remainers have limited choice outside the Greens or Lib Dems (who may prop up Tories anyway). Equivalence and trust is probably the best way forward to improving the exit deal I'd say.
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Post by leftieliberal on Aug 9, 2022 17:49:50 GMT
As this is a site for discussing polling and we haven't been doing much of that recently, I thought extracting some data from the polling archive would be useful. The attached graph is the Redfield and Wilton polling since the Tiverton & Honiton and Wakefield by-elections. I have averaged the three polls between the by-elections and Boris Johnson's announcement he was standing down as Tory Party leader (the circles) while the red diamonds and blue squares are the individual polls since then. There was clearly an increase in the gap immediately after the announcement when no-one knew the final candidates for the members to choose between, but the gap between the two parties has returned to a level pretty close to where it was after the by-elections with the Tories possibly slightly up, but with no obvious 'new leader bounce' even though polling by other pollsters seems to show Truss well ahead amongst Tory members. So Truss may be popular with Tory members but not with the electorate as a whole. Attachment Deleted
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Post by laszlo4new on Aug 9, 2022 18:05:47 GMT
As to artisan bakers. I took the exam of qualified artisan baker in Brittany many years ago, but failed on two points. One was measuring 2 kilos of salt by hand +/- 3%, and I was out by 8% (down). The other was the number of cracks allowed on the finished product (a kind of wrapped long thing). Two cracks were the acceptable level, but I had 4. Anyway, it was a nice summer working in an artisan bakery for 75 days (as a holiday).
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Post by mercian on Aug 9, 2022 18:10:14 GMT
alurqa"we need more foreigner workers." There's hundreds a day coming across the channel.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2022 18:12:03 GMT
Stephen Kinnock is MP for Aberavon, which will probably remain Labour even if the poll (voodoo?) showing Truss ahead of Starmer as best PM remains accurate. Since Truss led Starmer by 2% (and the Conservatives remain behind in the polls) and the Labour majority in Aberavon was 33.2% (Lab 53.8%; Con 20.6%) I'm loving the "probably".
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 9, 2022 18:14:48 GMT
alurqa "we need more foreigner workers." There's hundreds a day coming across the channel. And being forbidden to work - even if asylum seekers. "Those who claim asylum in the UK are not normally allowed to work whilst their claim is being considered. They are instead provided with accommodation and support to meet their essential living needs if they would otherwise be destitute."
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 9, 2022 18:40:27 GMT
@leftmercian et al
But some "work in mysterious ways"
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 9, 2022 19:42:44 GMT
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Post by hireton on Aug 9, 2022 20:13:42 GMT
Ii is difficult not to conclude that Truss lacks both judgment and integrity:
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alurqa
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Post by alurqa on Aug 9, 2022 20:15:39 GMT
alurqa "we need more foreigner workers." There's hundreds a day coming across the channel. Alas we are wasting this resource because, although we desparately need more young workers, some perceive this will be the thin end of the wedge, and so we refuse to let them work (my bold): www.gov.uk/government/publications/working-whilst-an-asylum-claim-is-considered/working-in-the-uk-whilst-an-asylum-case-is-consideredMost asylum applicants are not allowed to work while we consider their application. This is because entering the country for economic reasons is not the same as seeking asylum, and it is important to keep the two separate.
...
If you want to work voluntarily, without being paid, you should speak to your case owner.
It is against the law to beg.Edit: I see pjw1961 got there before me. :-)
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Post by hireton on Aug 9, 2022 20:33:23 GMT
If you are going to be insincere it's best not to admit to it on an open microphone:
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Post by jib on Aug 9, 2022 21:52:53 GMT
We're told to expect energy shortages this winter now as interconnectors with the continent will have no electricity to supply.
The lack of baseload UK generation capacity has been well known for years, and the failure of successive Governments to move from paper promises and grand designs to implement new builds chronic.
It looks like we'll be back to power cuts and shortages. Presumably a cold, overcast and not windy winter will spell disaster.
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Post by eor on Aug 9, 2022 22:28:58 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-62486406Vacuous sound and fury coming from many current politicians on the right, but there are also some more interestingly measured comments around from former advisers/strategists to both parties. On the one hand, it seems hard to believe the DoJ and FBI would undertake such a raid unless they were pretty certain of finding evidence damning enough to nullify concern about both the optics and the precedent. And if they do find it, then it feels (for the first time to me) that there's a genuine prospect that Trump is going to jail. On the other hand, having gone ahead with the raid, they now pretty much *have* to find such evidence, or the fallout will be huge and Trump2024 will be away and flying. There can't be many politicians who, after a day of doing nothing at all, find that their chances of going to prison and their chances of being elected President have both gone up.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 10, 2022 5:42:06 GMT
br]https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-business-balk-quick-trade-deal-india-liz-truss/ UK business fears quick-win trade deal with India India and the UK are aiming for a deal by Diwali — but businesses aren’t so sure.www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1556761/liz-truss-australia-trade-deal-brexit-update-national-farmers-unionFurious farmers lash out at Australia trade deal with stinging criticism of Liz Truss LIZ TRUSS's free trade pact with Australia faced renewed criticism from farmers today as they attacked the agreement for not being "a particularly good deal".Crossed my mind to wonder what Putin would do at this moment in time. Having succeeded in causing huge economic harm to the UK and seriously reduced its real world power and influence by getting the UK out of the EU, then at this point he might well try to get the UK into new international deals which would undermine its independence and remaining industries. Also simply make it as hard as possible to untangle this mess in the future by creating as many crazy deals as he could....before your henchmen finally get turfed out by the British public. Does out current conservative government really work for Putin, or have they embarked on a policy which delivers him all the gains he could wish for, simply for their own aggrandizement?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 10, 2022 5:49:16 GMT
News reporting on cancer waiting lists. More than 10000 people have been waiting more than three months for treatment, whereas pre covid this number was zero. Totals for shorter delays also up.
Looks like the deaths caused by lockdown are starting to bite.
Interviewee said something must be done urgently about this but I don't really see what could be done even with goodwill and a genuine wish to solve the problem. Finding more specialist staff isn't something you can just magic UP. Lockdown has condemned these people to die.
Cancer care is considered the most urgent specialty, but it must apply to all other areas too. Lockdown kills.
Incidentally, I noticed official targets say an urgent referral must see a consultant within two weeks, but only has a target of actual treatment within two months. Presumably leading to lots of hello and goodbye meetings.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 10, 2022 6:02:28 GMT
And back on covid - new work suggesting that BA2.75 is more contagious than BA5, more severe, and that it evades immunity from BA5. This could be the next wave, although other candidate strains are already available. You do keep making postings which essentially confirm the only way to manage the covid epidemic is and always has been to accept infections are inevitable and there is no choice but to rely upon our own immune systems. Getting them up to speed as fast as possible by accepting natural infection.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 10, 2022 6:09:09 GMT
We're told to expect energy shortages this winter now as interconnectors with the continent will have no electricity to supply. The lack of baseload UK generation capacity has been well known for years, and the failure of successive Governments to move from paper promises and grand designs to implement new builds chronic. It looks like we'll be back to power cuts and shortages. Presumably a cold, overcast and not windy winter will spell disaster. Every time I heard in the news about another coal power station cooling tower being demolished I thought if this possibility. The government has withdrawn from ensuring energy supply for the UK. See my post above, everything Putin could wish for. Because the government really work for Russia, or simply because they don't work for us and have never cared for anything except their own careers at any expense to the national interest?
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