oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Aug 8, 2022 15:22:59 GMT
The Kansas rejection of the Republican attempt to change the state constitution to include a ban on abortion is an encouraging sign that the GOP has pushed its culture war rather too far.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-62402625
My son in NC tells me that, not only was turnout unexpectedly high in the referendum, but massively so among women. As he put it "the voters dismissed the advice to ignore the State Governor, since the attention seeking was wholly by conservatives"
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2022 15:24:40 GMT
Now I don't actually believe for a minute that I convinced him of all of that in 30 seconds, but then nor do I actually think he believed what he was saying in the first place. He just wanted a bit of a moan, said a few things that he probably half believed in but had he been talking to a work colleague or close friend who he knew might challenge him would probably never have said. When I said he was talking bollocks, he didn't want to disagree. And that, I think, sums up a fair bit of our in person interactions on controversial topics. We like to maintain an agreed view, and if one individual takes the lead, the others will follow, whether or not they actually agree, because disagreeing means conflict and most of us don't want that. So he went away still believing our treatment of covid had been a gross over reaction? Had it been me then i would have replied point by point as I have here.
Its interesting here in hastings quite a few people I speak to believe we had Covid in 2019, before it ever was supposed to have reached the UK. Thats because so many had experience of a covid like disease at that time, which mysteriously despite spreading through Hastings died out just as the rest of the nation had widespread covid. Could have been unfortunate if the hastings mystery illness had continued to spread and the nation had had both it and covid at the same time. Luckily for us too that covid never spread to hastings in that spring wave. So all in all, we had a mystery covid like disease but then didnt have covid, just before the rest of the nation had actual covid. Oh.
Hastings had covid wihout any interventions. We survived, nothing terrible happened. Thats what it could have been like for the whole nation, but instead government ordered the closure of our industries causing a massive recession, but no health gain.
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2022 15:31:23 GMT
What better way to lick one's football club allegiance derived wounds than wallowing in a festival of English eccentricity on a glorious summer's day. I am of course referring to the annual Battle of Evesham Re-enactment and the accompanying festival that both celebrates and commemorates old medieval ways... A life affirming day. A slice of my sort of England, enjoyed on a truly beautiful summer's afternoon in the bountiful Vale of Evesham. Are you turning into John Major? đ
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Post by mercian on Aug 8, 2022 15:32:37 GMT
mandolinist Understanding how millions of our fellow citizens think, and more importantly why they they think that way, is a fundamental part of winning political arguments and elections, whether you're a centrist or on the left. Or, dare I say it, on the right.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Aug 8, 2022 15:40:06 GMT
Holy moly. This makes William Hague's baseball cap look inspired. Is he trying to sabotage his own campaign? Does he care not one jot about his reputation (what's left of it)? I'd think, yes. Whoever becomes PM now will be out at the next election and replaced after becoming universally unpopular. A former lib dem is distinctly disposable. "This country cannot wait four more weeks for the Tories to decide who might lead us through it. Without what Churchill called âAction This Dayâ, millions of hardworking families â (missing words) â face hunger and destitution for the first time in living memory." All very well to call for action, but I dont see any actual plans which might be implemented? I haven't been able to access like for like monthly stats on UK gas consumption as yet, but a comparison would be interesting. While there will have been reductions in response to price rises, we have not had any government action promoting savings and efficiency. Once again, the UK approach seems to be lots of talk about things like tax cuts, allied to hoping things will be OK. We have no unused storage capacity but are awash with gas so it makes no difference if we burn any surplus gas we have right now. Presumably government thinks people will make their own decisions either to pay the new high prices or cut back.
In the long run it might help next winter if we saved gas and sent it to Germany now, but thats a slim hope really. Not as if we were a member of the EU or something so there would be common cause.
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Post by jayblanc on Aug 8, 2022 15:40:40 GMT
Here's my take on what exactly is happening with the Conservative leadership campaign.
They don't understand that Twitter is a broadcast media.
They're acting under the misunderstanding that it's more like the newsletters to the membership mailing list. It hasn't sunk in yet that what goes on Twitter goes straight to the national headlines. They're just saying the same things they've always said in Hustings and in private meetings to gather support from the Nutters, they don't understand that these things are now being taken as Official Policy Declarations, and that the Daily Mail will expect them to be acted on immediately.
That doesn't mean they won't try to implement them. Now that they are Big Policy Declarations, they have to save face by being seen to at least try and implement them. And of course, because they're comprehensively bad policies, it's going to be a rough time. We could even be in for a period of Trumpian Policy by Tweet, with civil servants having to catch up.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2022 15:43:39 GMT
What better way to lick one's football club allegiance derived wounds than wallowing in a festival of English eccentricity on a glorious summer's day. I am of course referring to the annual Battle of Evesham Re-enactment and the accompanying festival that both celebrates and commemorates old medieval ways... A life affirming day. A slice of my sort of England, enjoyed on a truly beautiful summer's afternoon in the bountiful Vale of Evesham. Are you turning into John Major? đ The difference being that I was describing a real and authentic old England. Major was describing a nostalgic fantasy; maidens cycling to evensong, cricket on village greens, warm beer etc. ClichĂŠs in other words. A pastiche of a mis-remembered England. Major was a poor man's P G Wodehouse.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 15:57:29 GMT
Major was a poor man's P G Wodehouse. More like G K Chesterton. Wodehouse invented a unique comic world rather than a nostalgic never was.
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Post by shevii on Aug 8, 2022 16:08:11 GMT
Redfield & Wilton Strategies @redfieldwilton ¡ 6m Labour leads by 5%.
Westminster Voting Intention (7 August):
Labour 40% (â) Conservative 35% (+3) Liberal Democrat 12% (-1) Green 5% (+1) Scottish National Party 4% (â) Reform UK 3% (-1) Plaid Cymru 1% (â) Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 4 August
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2022 16:11:52 GMT
What better way to lick one's football club allegiance derived wounds than wallowing in a festival of English eccentricity on a glorious summer's day. I am of course referring to the annual Battle of Evesham Re-enactment and the accompanying festival that both celebrates and commemorates old medieval ways. A real digression this, but I can't resist. The previous standard account of the battle - essentially that developed from Sir Charles Oman onwards - has had to be substantially rewritten recently following that rarest of events for the historian, the discovery of a new account of the battle written by an eyewitness. The revised description also happens to make perfect sense in terms of standard medieval tactical thinking. The traditional account (a construction based on what scanty evidence was available) had a converging attack on de Montford's forces in several columns with Roger Mortimore south of the Avon and so blocking the bridge while the King's forces approached from the north, trapping de Montford in the bend of the river. The recently discovered account written by a monk present at Evesham Abbey throughout the battle is clear that the King, Gloucester and Mortimore were all north of the river, in close proximity in the standard three "battles" (divisions) of a medieval army - which is much more in accordance with military thinking at the time which emphasised not dividing forces in order to provide mutual support. This account also fits with and explains a lot of individual incidents in the other extant accounts, such as the Bishop of Worcester escaping across the supposedly blocked bridge and Mortimore killing de Montford north of the river. All very exciting if you are a historian! Edit: by 'recent' - the discovery and publication was in 2000, but that is recent for a historian . See "The Last Hours of Simon de Montfort" English Historical Review CXV pp 378-412.
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Post by crossbat11 on Aug 8, 2022 16:16:38 GMT
What better way to lick one's football club allegiance derived wounds than wallowing in a festival of English eccentricity on a glorious summer's day. I am of course referring to the annual Battle of Evesham Re-enactment and the accompanying festival that both celebrates and commemorates old medieval ways. A real digression this, but I can't resist. The previous standard account of the battle - essentially that developed from Sir Charles Oman onwards - has had to be substantially rewritten recently following that rarest of events for the historian, the discovery of a new account of the battle written by an eyewitness. The revised description also happens to make perfect sense in terms of standard medieval tactical thinking. The traditional account (a construction based on what scanty evidence was available) had a converging attack on de Montford's forces in several columns with Roger Mortimer south of the Avon and so blocking the bridge while the King's forces approached from the north, trapping de Montford in the bend of the river. The recently discovered account written by a monk present at Evesham Abbey throughout the battle is clear that the King, Gloucester and Mortimer were all north of the river, in close proximity in the standard three "battles" (divisions) of a medieval army - which is much more in accordance with military thinking at the time which emphasised not dividing forces in order to provide mutual support. This account also fits with and explains a lot of individual incidents in the other extant accounts, such as the Bishop of Worcester escaping across the supposedly blocked bridge and Mortimore killing de Montford north of the river. All very exciting if you are a historian!  Interesting. I obviously need to consult my old friend Denis Mortimer, a descendant of the famous Mortimer family. If he corroborates your account, then I will defer to your undoubted historical knowledge.
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Post by jib on Aug 8, 2022 16:44:26 GMT
DannyThe reason we had lockdown was to allow time for a strategy to be developed. That strategy was either vaccine or eradication. Luckily we got a vaccine. Most people have now caught COVID. The only ones that seem to get ill are the unvaccinated. Someone I know was "anti-vaccine". Caught COVID, now sick with long COVID and lost their hearing. You proposed making everyone who wasn't vaccinated catch COVID. You really are a fluffy one.
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steve
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Post by steve on Aug 8, 2022 17:09:11 GMT
jib While I agree with you regarding vaccination. It's worth pointing out that the vast majority of both vaccinated and unvaccinated people who have contracted covid didn't get significantly ill.
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Post by shevii on Aug 8, 2022 17:11:39 GMT
Has the Labour lead dropped? The 4 main regular pollsters latest polls are all between 3 and 5 which is different from the 7-8% lead we've mostly been assuming for a while now.
Opinium 2 x 3%, in terms of movement their "prediction" model is less liable to change so we might not detect much movement regardless of what is going on Techne- 9, 7 and now 5% Yougov- 7,1 and now 4% R&W- 8,4,8 and now 5%
Early days to be sure I think, and we do have the large +10 leads from other pollsters that are only a couple of weeks older, although to be fair these are at a time when these pollsters were definitely recording higher leads as well.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 18:26:37 GMT
crossbat11âI had a go on the target range, firing little stone filled pouches with a catapult. I didn't trouble the scorers.â That was typically thoughtful of you Batty. âWe finished with an idle hour in the beer and cider tent.â But I doubt very much if you were as idle as you say in the beer đş and cider tent. âşď¸
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Post by graham on Aug 8, 2022 18:40:08 GMT
The Labour lead probably has dropped. Not really surprising for two reasons - Governments tend to recover lost ground in August when Parliament is in recess and secondly Leadership contests usually boost the standing of the parties holding them because of the publicity gained and the freezing out of the other parties.
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Post by peterbell on Aug 8, 2022 18:46:38 GMT
I cannot believe these latest polls. I accept that generally more media coverage, particularly TV, helps a political party, but coverage in the past 2 weeks or so has been so negative for the Tories that these polls are either so wrong or a significant % of the UK electorate is so thick that there is no hope left for the country.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 18:53:14 GMT
I cannot believe these latest polls. I accept that generally more media coverage, particularly TV, helps a political party, but coverage in the past 2 weeks or so has been so negative for the Tories that these polls are either so wrong or a significant % of the UK electorate is so thick that there is no hope left for the country. You are domjg and I claim my 10 euros.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blipâŚ
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Aug 8, 2022 19:10:15 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 19:31:18 GMT
I cannot believe these latest polls. I accept that generally more media coverage, particularly TV, helps a political party, but coverage in the past 2 weeks or so has been so negative for the Tories that these polls are either so wrong or a significant % of the UK electorate is so thick that there is no hope left for the country. The latter. But the reality is (and I keep coming back to the FOTP system offering most of us no alternative) around a third of the electorate will vote Labour and another third will vote Tory, whatever the situation is. The only question is, who gets the bit on top and is it enough to win power? For the obvious reason that the alternative option is just not acceptable.
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Post by peterbell on Aug 8, 2022 19:53:39 GMT
I cannot believe these latest polls. I accept that generally more media coverage, particularly TV, helps a political party, but coverage in the past 2 weeks or so has been so negative for the Tories that these polls are either so wrong or a significant % of the UK electorate is so thick that there is no hope left for the country. You are domjg and I claim my 10 euros. colin, not quite sure what you mean by that. However, together with a couple of my friends, you are people who confirm that I am not totally biased in my thoughts re the Tory party. They have both come out recently saying that they couldn't vote Tory now and a number of your posts in the past month or so have almost suggested that you would consider voting Lab.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 20:00:51 GMT
peterbellâcolin, not quite sure what you mean by that. â Never mind, it was obviously hilarious anywayâŚ
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Post by chrisaberavon on Aug 8, 2022 20:21:59 GMT
Good Evening all. GRAHAM, I think it was Harold Macmillan who extolled the political benefits of a good summer.
I do believe the polls are tighter, looking at the odd council by elections alongside them.
Does anyone have records of the summer polls in 1985 and 1990? I seem to remember New Labour was about 30% ahead in late summer 1995.
Expecting Tories to attack Labour on National Insurance rises, defence and foreign policy as well as some aspects of the cultural divides,
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alurqa
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Freiburg im Breisgau's flag
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Post by alurqa on Aug 8, 2022 20:32:46 GMT
You are domjg and I claim my 10 euros. Ten euros? It used to be five. Blimey, inflation's worse than I thought.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2022 20:36:15 GMT
Good Evening all. GRAHAM, I think it was Harold Macmillan who extolled the political benefits of a good summer. I do believe the polls are tighter, looking at the odd council by elections alongside them. Does anyone have records of the summer polls in 1985 and 1990? I seem to remember New Labour was about 30% ahead in late summer 1995. Expecting Tories to attack Labour on National Insurance rises, defence and foreign policy as well as some aspects of the cultural divides, The average Gallup polls for the three months June/July/August 1985 were: Con 28.7, Lab 37.5, Lib/SDP 32.2. For the same three months 1990: Con 34.4, Lab 48.3, Lib Dem 9.3. And 1995: Con 22.2, Lab 54.0, Lib Dem 18.1%.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Aug 8, 2022 20:43:02 GMT
Good Evening all. GRAHAM, I think it was Harold Macmillan who extolled the political benefits of a good summer. I do believe the polls are tighter, looking at the odd council by elections alongside them. Does anyone have records of the summer polls in 1985 and 1990? I seem to remember New Labour was about 30% ahead in late summer 1995. Expecting Tories to attack Labour on National Insurance rises, defence and foreign policy as well as some aspects of the cultural divides, Chris - This is the second time you have mentioned foreign policy as a dividing line. As far as I can see the Labour and Conservative foreign policies are pretty much identical. Labour have taken the same line on Ukraine (which is why Starmer, Lammy and Nandy are currently sanctioned by Putin) and Starmer has ruled out rejoining the EU single market or customs union. Where do you see the dividing line? I would say the same is basically true for defence, although Truss may of course pledge unfunded increases in defence spending.
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Post by RAF on Aug 8, 2022 21:03:55 GMT
I suspect this is roughly in line with where we will end up if not by October, but January. Whilst I very much doubt the Government will maintain the existing cap, they may limit it to ÂŁ3,000 and freeze that for 12 months. There isn't really another viable (and politically acceptable) solution.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2022 21:31:16 GMT
Good Evening all. GRAHAM, I think it was Harold Macmillan who extolled the political benefits of a good summer. I do believe the polls are tighter, looking at the odd council by elections alongside them. Does anyone have records of the summer polls in 1985 and 1990? I seem to remember New Labour was about 30% ahead in late summer 1995. Expecting Tories to attack Labour on National Insurance rises, defence and foreign policy as well as some aspects of the cultural divides, Jolly good. Fingers crossed.
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Post by davwel on Aug 8, 2022 21:38:53 GMT
I find that Trump is soon to arrive in Scotland for a few days holiday playing golf. www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/donald-trump-jet-scotland-holiday-27675776When he last came to Scotland in 2018 for 2 days, the security cost to Scotland`s police was ÂŁ3.5 million, which had to paid by the Scottish Government. So it is probable that the cost this time will be greater. I don`t believe that this wretched individual should be allowed into the UK, but if Johnson is content to allow the visit against the clear wishes of the elected Scottish government, then the cost should be met by the UK government,
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Aug 8, 2022 21:40:32 GMT
Anent Angela Rayner in Edinburgh
www.thenational.scot/news/20609595.angela-rayner-scottish-independence-not-nice-means-perpetual-tory-rule/?ref=twtrec
Obvious points - I wasn't there, and this is a report in a pro-indy newspaper, so I recognise that there is a possibility of selective quotation, but UK Unionist media - neither the Herald (the National's stablemate), nor BBC nor STV have covered the story, so no alternative report seems to be available. Politicians usually want their comments to be widely distributed, but the apparent lack of this may be to her advantage.
Assuming that the quotations are accurate, they do appear to demonstrate a remarkably high level of political ineptitude. What was the target audience for her remarks?
If to the "politically British" voters in Scotland, then they already prioritise the Westminster Parliament but most do so because they think that is to Scotland's benefit. Only a minority prioritise a Labour Government there, and probably few because they want to protect English voters from themselves.
Her message seems more likely to alienate those who prioritise what they see as being in Scotland's best interests. Whether people see that as being best served by Scotland by being in or out of the UK doesn't greatly matter in this context. Many UK Unionists here are primarily concerned with what they believe serves our interests, rather than some altruistic concern for the people in the wider UK.
Perhaps she was sending a message to potential Labour voters in England? Deny Scots democracy to save us from English democracy? That would be a really inept line to take - "England will always vote in a Tory majority, and Labour will never form a government based on English votes again."
I know that some on here rate her highly, but maybe she isn't a very good politician?
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