steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 13:50:01 GMT
mercian the nearly sixteen million of us who retained functioning brain cells thank you!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 17, 2022 13:51:53 GMT
NeilJ: "It looks like both by-elections, Wakefield and the Tiverton one, will be on the 23 June.
My betting is Labour will take the first, Lib-dems the second and Johnson still wont go"Hah! Sixth anniversary of Black Thursday. A lot of murky water has flowed under the bridge since then. I think you're probably right about the results, in which case at least part of the electorate will have become a bit more discerning. "Sixth anniversary of Black Thursday" - Like that. That's how I shall refer to the referendum from now on! |
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Post by somerjohn on May 17, 2022 14:18:33 GMT
domjg: "That's how I shall refer to the referendum from now on!"
You're welcome. I hope it catches on.
I don't suppose I'm the first to call it that, but I haven't seen it before. It occurred to me when I checked to make absolutely sure June 23rd was the referendum date, and saw that it was a Thursday (of course), the same as this year.
It's interesting to see what does catch on here. 'Anent' seems well established now, and of course polldrums from an earlier incarnation.
I blush to confess that I think I was responsible for the TWs' "New Model Tories.' I used it as a disparaging comparator to Cromwell's New Model Army, which was notorious for ruthlessly crushing dissent, massacring Catholics and aiming to eliminate fun and the enjoyment of life. The TWs gleefully latched on to the phrase, I think reading "New Model Tory' as similar to 'New Model Mondeo' - bigger, better, shinier, brighter.
The lesson: never assume a modicum of historical awareness in everyone.
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Post by jib on May 17, 2022 14:23:22 GMT
mercian the nearly sixteen million of us who retained functioning brain cells thank you! Nice one Steve. Carry on in your deluded paradise, good v evil and all that. Meanwhile we've left the EU mate. The UK will never rejoin in its current form, and I doubt England ever will. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 17, 2022 14:51:55 GMT
mercian the nearly sixteen million of us who retained functioning brain cells thank you! Nice one Steve. Carry on in your deluded paradise, good v evil and all that. Meanwhile we've left the EU mate. The UK will never rejoin in its current form, and I doubt England ever will. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 17, 2022 14:53:51 GMT
Central Banker on half a million a year tells workers facing double digit inflation , in a labour market with the highest vacancy rate since records began , not to ask for pay increases. !Ah colin , we will make a socialist out of you yet!
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Post by jib on May 17, 2022 14:55:07 GMT
Nice one Steve. Carry on in your deluded paradise, good v evil and all that. Meanwhile we've left the EU mate. The UK will never rejoin in its current form, and I doubt England ever will. Don't disagree with that conclusion. That's why the Union Jack flyers are in a flap, I think the realisation of that has hit home! Too late now though. They hate the NIP because it gives a mechanism for transitional membership of the UK and EU Customs Union. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 17, 2022 15:03:11 GMT
100,000 Rangers fans expected in Sevilla on Wednesday night for the Europa Cup Final. Spanish police are making the necessary welcoming arrangements, apparently. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61471267Will OldNat be there, I wonder? I can't remember if he's a Gers man or a follower of the Bhoys. |
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Post by guymonde on May 17, 2022 15:24:12 GMT
All this talk of 27 nations and the difficulty of negotiating compromises brings to mind the time when I was appointed 'European Cost Killer' by my French multinational employer. I had done some effective cost reduction on the UK and Ireland vehicle fleet - we had about 1600 company cars at the time - and was told to do the same for all Europe - essentially split into clusters - France, Germany, Italy, Iberia, Benelux, Scandinavia. Group Finance Director said it will happen - go get a solution and impose it on these countries, I will back you 100%. So I did a huge negotiation with all major manufacturers and came to a deal with Ford and Fiat. Toyota declined to bid but instead of sending the European boss (who was Japanese, and who had led in the early stages) they sent a Scottish minion to announce withdrawal to avoid loss of face.
Grand meeting of the 'Council of Ministers' in Paris. First of all the French said- yes, excellent negotiation but you must realise that in France all our vehicles must be French or it will upset our customers, so we will continue with Peugeot and Renault, merci. Then the Scandis said, tak, yes all very good but it will obviously not work in Scandinavia because of the weather. It is essential for safety reasons that we stick with Volvo and Saab. The Germans said danke, but Fiat has a poor reputation in Germany. Ford is OK for engineers but it is important to protect the prestige of our sales force and executives, who must therefore have BMW or Mercedes. The Belgians said we don't like it because it has been biased in favour of Netherlands and the Dutch didn't like it because it was too Belgian. Big boss then told me I had clearly made a huge mess of the negotiation and was a poor professional. We therefore reverted to our original approach, with only the UK having a consistent policy - bearing in mind that our uniform UK/Ireland policy was completely different between UK and Ireland.
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Post by barbara on May 17, 2022 15:26:59 GMT
jib One of the outcomes of Brexit in fact the most likely one was always potentially the shit show we've got. Saying I would have preferred a different form of Brexit is just sophistry. I voted to remain in the European union I knew the outcome I was voting for no whatiffery. You and all other Brexit voters are almost entirely responsible for allowing the opportunity for the Spaffer regime to diminish this country. Only those remainers who had the cognitive dissonance to vote for this corrupt shambles of a government knowing it was led by an incompetent liar share some culpability along with those who couldn't be arsed to vote. Stop trying to pass the buck and embrace the stupidity. Alternatively you could apologise. So 17 million Leave voters, all the non-voters, and Remainers who voted Tory are all to blame. Thank goodness for the tiny band of you and your colleagues or where would we be? Sometimes it's hard to accept you made a huge mistake. You voted with your heart and have created an absolute omnishambles. It would have been fine if it had only affected you but your misguided vote means the rest of us have to suffer alongside you. And you wonder why remainers are still angry. All of us, our children and our children's children have got to live with an impoverished country , diminished in the eyes of the world because of your vote. All you would have had to live with is what you had already. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 17, 2022 15:32:07 GMT
All this talk of 27 nations and the difficulty of negotiating compromises brings to mind the time when I was appointed 'European Cost Killer' by my French multinational employer. I had done some effective cost reduction on the UK and Ireland vehicle fleet - we had about 1600 company cars at the time - and was told to do the same for all Europe - essentially split into clusters - France, Germany, Italy, Iberia, Benelux, Scandinavia. Group Finance Director said it will happen - go get a solution and impose it on these countries, I will back you 100%. So I did a huge negotiation with all major manufacturers and came to a deal with Ford and Fiat. Toyota declined to bid but instead of sending the European boss (who was Japanese, and who had led in the early stages) they sent a Scottish minion to announce withdrawal to avoid loss of face. Grand meeting of the 'Council of Ministers' in Paris. First of all the French said- yes, excellent negotiation but you must realise that in France all our vehicles must be French or it will upset our customers, so we will continue with Peugeot and Renault, merci. Then the Scandis said, tak, yes all very good but it will obviously not work in Scandinavia because of the weather. It is essential for safety reasons that we stick with Volvo and Saab. The Germans said danke, but Fiat has a poor reputation in Germany. Ford is OK for engineers but it is important to protect the prestige of our sales force and executives, who must therefore have BMW or Mercedes. The Belgians said we don't like it because it has been biased in favour of Netherlands and the Dutch didn't like it because it was too Belgian. Big boss then told me I had clearly made a huge mess of the negotiation and was a poor professional. We therefore reverted to our original approach, with only the UK having a consistent policy - bearing in mind that our uniform UK/Ireland policy was completely different between UK and Ireland. Ah, Saab. I miss Saab, had one years ago. Cost me a fortune to keep it on the road but I loved it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2022 15:43:49 GMT
Central Banker on half a million a year tells workers facing double digit inflation , in a labour market with the highest vacancy rate since records began , not to ask for pay increases. !Ah colin , we will make a socialist out of you yet! Socialism isn't a pre requisite for thinking that was insensitive ,crass and detached from the reality of ordinary lives.  |
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Post by bardin1 on May 17, 2022 15:46:12 GMT
100,000 Rangers fans expected in Sevilla on Wednesday night for the Europa Cup Final. Spanish police are making the necessary welcoming arrangements, apparently. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61471267Will OldNat be there, I wonder? I can't remember if he's a Gers man or a follower of the Bhoys. Ooooh How to annoy most of the population of Scotland = the assumption that we have any interest whatsoever in what the two a***cheeks aka the Bigot Brothers do |
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Post by shevii on May 17, 2022 15:49:09 GMT
So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory. He now tells MPs that it will hit 10% pa and his mythical 2% target is at least three years away. And he says he can't do anything about 80% of it !. So-Rishi-the decade and a half of negative real borrowing costs is over. The cynical use of QE in its final days as deficit funding is a memory. Bailey says food price increases will be "apocalyptic", further energy price shocks are expected-and UK will see " the worst annual drop in income for UK households since the 1950s". And Bailey can't help you with any of it. I think we need to start looking at whether inflation is a new normal now and what the root causes of this are. Our current inflation is caused by covid & pent up demand, "supply chains", Ukraine, and energy prices feeding into all of these things. There's probably a little bit of brexit but inconsequential to the key components. This might however be masking the general direction of travel caused by dwindling resources worldwide and also (from a left wing point of view perhaps) more and more of those resources ending up in a few hands that then control the market. We know energy producers are making a fortune right now- is this pure short term supply and demand or a long term supply and demand where a few companies and individuals control supply of a dwindling resource and greater demand? Same goes for raw materials/components/minerals/food and while Ukraine war is causing some of these shortages & inflation I can't help but think that global warming is adding to the food problems with droughts, failed harvests topped up by population increase. Are we at the stage already where resources can't keep up with population and lifestyles and that inflation triggers like Covid and Ukraine are early symptoms as opposed to root causes? Looking at Sri Lanka we can maybe put this down to a corrupt government but perhaps just the first domino to fall and corruption is the reason they are first to fall rather than just a one off. As you say Bailey can't do anything about this and, far be it for me to criticise someone who I'm sure knows more about this than I do and has a limited remit anyway, perhaps using the standard tools of interest rates and pay restraint isn't going to solve this problem. You'd have thought that if the brexit vote counted for anything it would have been a move towards more self sufficiency. We should be going hammer and tongs at insulating homes & businesses to reduce energy demand short term and investing massively in renewables for the medium and long term- every country should be, especially knowing that inflation on those renewables components are going to make this investment much more costly in the future. Plus supporting farming to massive levels to try and make us more self sufficient in food to take out inflationary impacts in the medium term. Hopefully if you can deal with the basics of energy and food then other inflationary pressures will be easier to control. But whatever our inflation issues it's going to be nothing compared to 3rd world and developing countries who can't achieve self sufficiency themselves. I know I'm back to my pet topics of population, resources and global warming but these do seem to me to be they key long term problems that need dealing with today in a massive worldwide & UK plan. |
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Post by alec on May 17, 2022 15:54:36 GMT
steve - "As such while competent to comment on the clinical implications she is no better qualified to pontificate on the root causes of lower activity than any one else. Which doesn't mean she might not be right but the implication that the BoE supported this conclusion is misleading." No it isn't. What was actually said, from the speech (see here www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2022/may/michael-saunders-speech-at-the-resolution-foundation-event ) was this: (my emphasis) "Since Q4-19, the number of people aged 16-64 years that are outside the workforce and do not want a job has risen by 525,000 (1.3% of the 16-64 age population). This largely reflects increases in long-term sickness (roughly 320,000 people) and retirement (90,000), with smaller contributions from lower participation among students (65-70,000) and short-term sickness (30-35,000 people). The share of the 16-64 population who are outside the workforce and do not want a job because of long-term sickness is a record high, with an especially sharp rise among women (see figure 6). I suspect much of this rise in inactivity due to long-term sickness reflects side effects of the pandemic, for example Long Covidfootnote [3] and the rise in NHS waiting lists. "
@danny - "Eh mate, you posted a graph of pensioners not working because of illness."
Stop playing the fool. It was a graph of working age people.
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Post by moby on May 17, 2022 15:56:47 GMT
Just ask the 'average' UK worker how they feel they're doing right now? Just ask any worker anywhere in Europe how they are doing. The current cost of living crisis was initially caused by COVID, and then exacerbated by the tragedy in Ukraine. Trying to conflate with Brexit is pure desperation. In fact, even the Northern Irish Protocol is bedding down well and most people affected are supportive: www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/most-people-in-northern-ireland-now-view-protocol-positively-1.4712095It's only a few desperate orange freemasons and their mates in the ERG that are worried. They made that bed, lie in it! There is plenty of evidence that Brexit will affect the economic outlook of the UK. www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59070020 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 17, 2022 16:00:48 GMT
Central Banker on half a million a year tells workers facing double digit inflation , in a labour market with the highest vacancy rate since records began , not to ask for pay increases. !Ah colin , we will make a socialist out of you yet! Socialism isn't a pre requisite for thinking that was insensitive ,crass and detached from the reality of ordinary lives.   |
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Post by alec on May 17, 2022 16:03:24 GMT
@isa (and others) - re negative perceptions filtering into Russia:
This, from the latest ISW analysis, is interesting:
"Russian military bloggers continued to post analysis that is skeptical of Russian efforts and increasingly in-line with Western assessments of Russian military failures in Ukraine. One such blogger, Igor Strelkov, claimed that the Russian offensive to take Donbas has ultimately failed and that “not a single large settlement “has been liberated.[1] Strelkov even noted that the capture of Rubizhne is relatively insignificant because it happened before the new offensive in Donbas had begun. Strelkov stated that Russian forces are unlikely to liberate Donbas by the summer and that Ukrainian troops will hold their positions around Donetsk City. Strelkov notably claimed that Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.” The continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Russian war effort may fuel dissatisfaction in Russia itself, especially if Moscow continues to press recruitment and conscription efforts that send poorly-trained cannon-fodder to the front lines."
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Post by shevii on May 17, 2022 16:08:02 GMT
Will OldNat be there, I wonder? I can't remember if he's a Gers man or a follower of the Bhoys. I think that needed a smiley added, although perhaps Oldnat skips both of those options, especially with Aberdeen being an easy solution to taking sides. Interesting Chelsea anecdote- when I was first taken there you used to get the well known "Celtic" from half the fans responded to by "Rangers" chant from the other half, but by the mid 1970's it become more of a Chelsea twinned with Rangers attitude- couldn't for the life of me work out why :-) When Glasgow Rangers played in Manchester we ended up with most of them not making it further than Wigan as they were incapable by then of changing trains, especially when you had to walk 50 yards up the road- oh the state of it! Oldnat sometimes comes up with convoluted explanations when all us English needed by way of an explanation of the problem was "Glasgow Rangers fans"- even if slightly inaccurate as an explanation it puts it in a way that makes it very easy for us English to understand. Contract clause I have known some Glasgow Rangers fans who were perfectly well balanced but no harm in dealing in stereotypes now and again... |
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Post by mercian on May 17, 2022 16:09:37 GMT
Sometimes it's hard to accept you made a huge mistake. You voted with your heart and have created an absolute omnishambles. It would have been fine if it had only affected you but your misguided vote means the rest of us have to suffer alongside you. And you wonder why remainers are still angry. All of us, our children and our children's children have got to live with an impoverished country , diminished in the eyes of the world because of your vote. All you would have had to live with is what you had already.Yes, membership of an undemocratic sclerotic organisation which will gradually impoverish everyone in it because of over-bureaucracy and slow reaction speeds to changing events. It was precisely because of my children and grandchildren that I voted to Leave. I'm too old for it to make much difference to me personally. Better to have a short period of economic upheaval followed by growth because of greater flexibility than slow inevitable decline. And if we get a bad government we can actually get rid of them! |
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Post by moby on May 17, 2022 16:09:48 GMT
100,000 Rangers fans expected in Sevilla on Wednesday night for the Europa Cup Final. Spanish police are making the necessary welcoming arrangements, apparently. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61471267Will OldNat be there, I wonder? I can't remember if he's a Gers man or a follower of the Bhoys. How many Huns do you know who also support Scottish independence  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 16:10:55 GMT
alec So it says the B of E said exactly what I said it said that they " suspect" and that one of the things they suspect is involved is long term covid implications. At most the B of E thinks c35,000 out of half a million might be down to long term sickness( not just from covid). You do understand the difference between suspect and certainty and one of and the only don't you!
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Post by alec on May 17, 2022 16:21:55 GMT
steve - no, your numbers are off. What Saunders said was that since Q4/19 an additional 525,000 people have been added to the 16-64 inactive numbers, with 320,000 of this from long term sickness, not 35,000. Interestingly, in a separate study, the ONS thinks there are 346,000 people currently living with long covid that affects their daily lives a lot. 325,000 and 346,000 are really quite similar numbers. Personally, I think you (and many others) really do need to wake up to long covid. It really is a serious issue, and ignoring or minimising this doesn't make it go away.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 16:24:12 GMT
Fun fact the word Tory derives from an Irish word meaning highway man or robber.
And an anagram of brexitanian is ( almost) inebriant.
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Post by graham on May 17, 2022 16:27:04 GMT
Unemployment today is not low compared with what was expected in the 1950 - 1970 period . A level of 500,000 - or circa 2% - was then considered too high and contributed to Government unpopularity.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 17, 2022 16:27:05 GMT
alec My mistake I misread the post noting short term not long term. Of course we don't actually know how this compares with other periods of reduced economic activity and it remains an assumption.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on May 17, 2022 16:35:16 GMT
mercian I'm sure your grandchildren will be delighted that you limited their horizons so they can't take advantage of schemes that I did for example when younger. Fortunately my child has Irish statehood so will not face this issue, if she didn't I'd be enraged even more than I already am about the lunacy that is 'brexit' (refuse to capitalise it).
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Post by somerjohn on May 17, 2022 16:58:25 GMT
UK business investment falls in Q1 2022: The divergence from the trend seems to have begun in Q3 2016. Had anything happened earlier that year thst might have caused that? Mercian: "Yes, membership of an undemocratic sclerotic organisation which will gradually impoverish everyone in it because of over-bureaucracy and slow reaction speeds to changing events."That's no way to talk of the UK. Even if you do favour Merxit as a way to shake free of the shackles of the UK monolith. Better to have a short period of economic upheaval in free Mercia followed by growth because of greater flexibility than slow inevitable decline, eh? Talking of 'slow inevitable decline', did you take a look at the graph above that Hireton posted? That's just the brexit effect on business investment, but the same picture appears all over the place. The graph of UK car production is exactly the same shape, but even starker.
We're on a slippery downward slope. So let's sit back and do nothing, shall we, in the expectation that something will turn up? That sounds like the right recipe for turning a declining business around.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 17, 2022 17:05:37 GMT
Socialism isn't a pre requisite for thinking that was insensitive ,crass and detached from the reality of ordinary lives.  Therapy may be required if this persists…  |
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Post by alec on May 17, 2022 17:08:47 GMT
On the latest Brexit/NIP threats:
I think we may be seeing a long play here. The government knows that the HoL will reject the attempts to overturn the protocol, and that if they use the Parliament Act, it becomes law in a year anyway.
Then, under the TCA terms, the EU can impose some sanctions immediately, (fish, agricultural goods) but the big stuff needs a years notice.
So - perhaps - the intention is, as ever, to not actually do anything, other than create the impression of a war with the EU for electoral purposes. The two year gestation period would mean going into an election with a trade war looming, when Johnson can claim whatever he likes, safe in the knowledge that it would all happen or not after polling day.
Probably the best thing for the HoL to do would be to sit on their hands and let him pass Truss's paper tiger act, and let him swing before the next GE.
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