13-May 2022 : LAB: 39% / CON: 34% / LDEM: 11% / GRN: 6%

[graham]

May 17, 2022 8:06:49 GMT colin said:

So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory. He now tells MPs that it will hit 10% pa and his  mythical 2% target is at least three years away.

And he says he can't do anything about 80% of it !.

So-Rishi-the decade and a half of negative real borrowing costs is over. The cynical use of QE  in its final days  as deficit funding is a memory.
Bailey says food price increases  will be "apocalyptic", further energy price shocks are expected-and UK will see " the worst annual drop in income for UK households since the 1950s".

And Bailey can't help you with any of it.

May I make a suggestion before you get the spread sheets out- tell the public the truth about what is coming , and about what you can and cannot do to help.

And stop idiots like Rachel Maclean making  an opportunity for people in stress ( The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest in nearly fifty years with more vacancies than unemployed people in the economy for the first time on record.-T ) ; sound like an insensitive  insult.

This is going to take huge sensitivity, deft political handling-and a lot of money.

I'm not betting on it !

'Real' - rather than 'Nominal' - interest rates remain very negative. Base rate may now be at its highest for 13 years but at 1% it remains well below the CPI rate of 7% - never mind the RPI rate of 9%.

[domjg]

A new verb has entered the German language, 'durchScholzen' (to Scholz through) roughly meaning to blindly keep blustering on and when bombarded with questions and concerns say as little as possible except 'everything will be fine, I know what I'm doing' in as patronising a way as possible.
Being in government has not resolved the SPD's many and long developing problems. They've got a lot to sort out and as the Greens continue to increase their vote share on the left and the centre and accrue power nationally and at Land level more and more voters are going to start asking what the point of the SPD is.

www.sueddeutsche.de/medien/olaf-scholz-pinar-atalay-rtl-direkt-1.5585656

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 9:26:01 GMT jimjam said:

Colin,

Are not interest rates below inflation in effect negative interest rates?

I am not challenging you just enquiring as you get this macro-economic stuff in a way I only partially grasp.

Yes-badly worded jimjam . ( anf graham )

I should have said will be over. If Bailey is right that we will return to 2% inflation in three years-what are the chances that interest rate will be higher than that?.

Thats the way it used to be before 08 , the Credit Crash and the era of Central Bank Loose Monetary Policy.

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 9:33:33 GMT domjg said:

May 17, 2022 9:16:51 GMT colin said:

Do you think the UK structure is currently 'right'? 

I'm sure its not-but it does allow for rapid central decision making, which , for a 27 member group is clearly more problematic.

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 9:42:06 GMT alec said:

colin - "The EU's penchant for grand words ,and plans which never materialise is analysed in this piece about military aid to Ukraine :-...."

"Leveling up"
"Build back better"
"No border in the Irish Sea"
"March of the Makers"
"A high wage, high skilled economy"

You do understand that you don't need to be an organisation of 27 sovereign states to sometimes struggle to deliver ambitions, don't you?

The Conservatives manage to far worse, all on their own.

[alec]

lens - www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm9128#.YnUUrhVQ5Rw.twitter

"Adequate mitigation measures appear to eliminate the excess risk associated with in-person schooling."

We can actually eliminate many infection risks, rather than just delay them. In doing so, we partially protect against the risk of new variants.

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 9:56:02 GMT Lakeland Lass said:

May 17, 2022 9:16:51 GMT colin said:

Would you say the same about Nato ?

Turkey says it will not approve Sweden and Finland joining Nato

Isn't that an issue about who should be a member of a group , rather than an issue about decision making within a group.?


You raise an interesting example though. I had a look at its top tier decision making and found this :-

"The meetings of the NAC are chaired by the Secretary General and, when decisions have to be made, action is agreed upon on the basis of unanimity and common accord. There is no voting or decision by majority. Each nation represented at the NAC table or on any of its subordinate committees retains complete sovereignty and responsibility for its own decisions"

I dont know what the record says about failure to agree .

Actually-on Ukraine, my perception is that NATO has been a co-ordinating entity, with member states contributing as they wish. 

[alec]

colin - "So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory."

Kudos to you. You (and some others) raised the alarm on inflation well before it became fashionable. In fact, you sounded distinctly gloomy.

I was rather warming to you.

[alec]

This, for example, is madness -

Maximum community surveillance is vital, under any strategy.

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 10:23:21 GMT somerjohn said:

Colin: "The mirage that is so often the reality of EU's self proclaimed unity & solidarity still can't agree to cease buying Putin's oil"

As opposed, presumably, to our own dear totally united, indivisible and brexit-enabled nation, which quickly announced a ban on its (minor) Russian oil imports.

Oh, wait a minute, what's this, from yesterday?

Greenpeace protesters blocked a jetty where a tanker carrying 33,000 tonnes of Russian diesel was due to berth, forcing it to turn around in the Thames.

The environmental group said 12 campaigners got in to the Navigator Terminals in Grays in Essex late on Sunday, and climbed on to the jetty.

They were protesting against the UK government allowing fossil fuel money to flow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and fund invasion of Ukraine.'

www.itv.com/news/anglia/2022-05-16/greenpeace-blocks-russian-diesel-tanker-at-uk-fuel-terminal


Who'd have thought our government could talk the talk but might have trouble with the walking bit?

I think the UK Government Russian Oil ban takes place at the end of this year.  I wish it was quicker than that.


I applaud Greenpeace's nudge to Ministers obn this one.


They did the same in Norway recently :-

www.greenpeace.org/international/press-release/53408/greenpeace-activists-block-russian-oil-tanker-from-offloading-oil-in-norwegian-port/

[alec]

And here, for the economic impacts of long covid -

The conspiracy of silence between government and media goes on.

[leftieliberal]

An illustration of how the question asked can affect the outcome of a survey. Here are two surveys, both conducted in Scotland this year by the same pollster (Survation): one commissioned by the SNP and one by Scotland in Union. Attachment Deleted Attachment Deleted

In the first, renewal of of Trident is opposed by 47.2% to 31.6% with 21.2% undecided; in the second the UK retaining its independent nuclear deterrent is supported by 58% to 20% with 23% undecided.

I would have expected the Russian invasion of Ukraine to have had some effect, but not to have completely transformed the public's views. After all, we knew about Putin's behaviour long before January.

This is not intended as a criticism of either the SNP or Scotland in Union; as commissioners of the surveys they have a right to ask whatever questions they wish, but to illustrate that we should be cautious in taking any survey at face value and need to look carefully at the wording of questions, particularly when pollsters ask essentially the same question in different ways.

[hireton]

UK business investment falls in Q1 2022:

The divergence from the trend seems to have begun in Q3 2016. Had anything happened earlier that year thst might have caused that?

[neilj]

It looks like both by-elections, Wakefield and the Tiverton one, will be on the 23 June.
My betting is Labour will take the first, Lib-dems the second and Johnson still wont go

[Deleted]

The mad world of Gas supply on our Continent :-

news.sky.com/story/the-surreal-but-also-real-problem-of-britains-gas-glut-12614797

[somerjohn]

NeilJ: "It looks like both by-elections, Wakefield and the Tiverton one, will be on the 23 June.
My betting is Labour will take the first, Lib-dems the second and Johnson still wont go"

Hah! Sixth anniversary of Black Thursday. A lot of murky water has flowed under the bridge since then.

I think you're probably right about the results, in which case at least part of the electorate will have become a bit more discerning.

[Deleted]

Just heard Truss in HoC.

Can anyone explain why -as she stated-her proposals for Green Lane/Trusted Trader etc cannot be accommodated within the NIP.

She said EU cannot "open" the Protocol.

Is the NIP not about principal (GF + protecting SM ) rather than process ?

[jimjam]

Big negative interest rates on savings coupled with unplanned lockdown savings for many better off families is perhaps sustaining demand at present despite below inflation pay rises and tax increases. (NI plus tax threshold increase).

How long for though? I think the 4th quarter could see a reduction in discretionary spending as the energy cap kicks in.

[mercian]

May 17, 2022 11:49:51 GMT leftieliberal said:

An illustration of how the question asked can affect the outcome of a survey. Here are two surveys, both conducted in Scotland this year by the same pollster (Survation): one commissioned by the SNP and one by Scotland in Union. <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

In the first, renewal of of Trident is opposed by 47.2% to 31.6% with 21.2% undecided; in the second the UK retaining its independent nuclear deterrent is supported by 58% to 20% with 23% undecided.

I would have expected the Russian invasion of Ukraine to have had some effect, but not to have completely transformed the public's views. After all, we knew about Putin's behaviour long before January.

This is not intended as a criticism of either the SNP or Scotland in Union; as commissioners of the surveys they have a right to ask whatever questions they wish, but to illustrate that we should be cautious in taking any survey at face value and need to look carefully at the wording of questions, particularly when pollsters ask essentially the same question in different ways.

Surely the difference is that Putin and his cronies have now explicitly threatened nuclear war on several occasions. Previously Trident could be seen by some as an anachronistic waste of money. Now it's obvious to more people that we need a nuclear deterrent.

[Danny]

May 17, 2022 7:38:15 GMT alec said:

The economic impacts of poorly managed covid now starting to trouble the BoE -
Don't think many people have quite understood just how long covid risks all sorts of economic and social impacts yet. The penny will drop in time.

Eh mate, you posted a graph of pensioners not working because of illness. It shows a peak about 1995 and a new rising trend starting about 2015. If we are to correlate that with any known event, surely it would have to be Brexit, causing people to get ill?

Hard to see how covid started causing illness in 2015 - even I only think it got here in 2019.

I suggest if covid had an impact, it is likely to be that people had enforced non working, and decided they liked it.

[oldnat]

May 17, 2022 11:49:51 GMT leftieliberal said:

An illustration of how the question asked can affect the outcome of a survey. Here are two surveys, both conducted in Scotland this year by the same pollster (Survation): one commissioned by the SNP and one by Scotland in Union. <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

In the first, renewal of of Trident is opposed by 47.2% to 31.6% with 21.2% undecided; in the second the UK retaining its independent nuclear deterrent is supported by 58% to 20% with 23% undecided.

I would have expected the Russian invasion of Ukraine to have had some effect, but not to have completely transformed the public's views. After all, we knew about Putin's behaviour long before January.

This is not intended as a criticism of either the SNP or Scotland in Union; as commissioners of the surveys they have a right to ask whatever questions they wish, but to illustrate that we should be cautious in taking any survey at face value and need to look carefully at the wording of questions, particularly when pollsters ask essentially the same question in different ways.

While you are correct that the wording of a question makes a difference, the SNP question you quote dates from 2015 - 7 years ago! and not in the middle of a war by Russia against the Ukraine.

The context in which a question is asked, also matters a great deal.

While I saw both sets of tables, I hadn't noticed the peculiar weighting adopted by Survation for the Scotland in Union poll. While the 2015 one had the normal weighting "to the profile of all Scottish adults aged 16+", the 2022 data "were weighted to the profile of parents of primary school children in the United Kingdom". That was because SiU piggy backed their questions on a UK poll in which "Survation conducted an online poll of 2040 parents of primary school aged children in the UK on behalf of BBC Education and Netmums."

[crossbat11]

A thought for the day. Looking at these superficially healthy vacancy and unemployment figures, co-existing as they are with falling living standards, I wonder if paid work now is the route to a secure and comfortable life in the way it was always assumed to be? We've talked a lot about underemployment and precarious work, the lack of decent employment conditions as well as chronically low pay, and it looks now as if high employment figures (low unemployment) now fails to translate into both a healthy economy and personally fulfilling lives. So much of it now appears to be unskilled, low paid and insecure. Is it any wonder that vacancies remain unfilled for so long?

The continuing weakness of trade unions and the steady deregulation of both the employment market and the obligations on employers to provide sick pay, pensions, holidays etc, has led us down a path to a low productivity, low unemployment and low personal satisfaction world of work. P&O's recent actions illustrate this world starkly.

A world of barristas, deliveroo operatives, Amazon clones, hired then fired and then rehired workers and here today, gone tomorrow DHL van drivers. The employment and vacancy figures may look good on paper but I fear they mask an economy that is far from productive and that often provides unfulfilling and insecure work for so many of its citizens.

Paid work appears no longer to be the gateway to the good life as it once was.

[Danny]

May 17, 2022 8:10:52 GMT nickp said:

Yeah. Doesn't really matter now who voted what, or who would vote what next time. It's going to be bad, and there's no escaping it.

You are right that both lab and con supported the disastrous and unaffordable lockdown policy, both went along with brexit, both pretty much agreed to de-fossilification without planning an alternative.

May 17, 2022 9:16:04 GMT jib said:

The current cost of living crisis was initially caused by COVID, and then exacerbated by the tragedy in Ukraine. Trying to conflate with Brexit is pure desperation.

No. Our current economic decline began pretty much once a referendum was mooted and proceeded with more force as brexit became certain. Its still going on. Lockdown was a pointless program of closing down the world economies which did not save lives but obviously caused many of the economic problems we have now. This was self imposed pain which we chose to cause. It was not caused by covid itself, which we all know mostly affects pensioners. By definition, non-workers. Once economies reopened we started to see the effects of the world program to end fossil fuel production- which failed to be accompanied by a program for alternative energy suply. And now Russia's war has further reduced fossil fuel supplies, plus other commodities. Four disasters. All of them man made on purpose.

May 17, 2022 8:41:42 GMT colin said:

Andrew Bailey told MPs that 450,000 people had dropped out of the labour market since 2019, which was “significant” by historical standards.

Surely not surprising though? You order people to stop going out and spending money, then they realise they dont really miss it, and actually prefer not working because they dont need that money now anyway. Plus they probably found other (free) interests.

Andrew Bailey ( salary £575 k pa) said workers should "think and reflect "on whether they should ask for pay rises because the risk of increasing inflation is a "societal question".

That one never worked in the past...

May 17, 2022 8:06:49 GMT colin said:

So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory. He now tells MPs that it will hit 10% pa and his  mythical 2% target is at least three years away. And he says he can't do anything about 80% of it !.

So-Rishi-the decade and a half of negative real borrowing costs is over. The cynical use of QE  in its final days  as deficit funding is a memory.
Bailey says food price increases  will be "apocalyptic", further energy price shocks are expected-and UK will see " the worst annual drop in income for UK households since the 1950s". And Bailey can't help you with any of it.

If inflation is 10% and interest rates only 5%....then debt still erodes, and yes you can still use deficit funding. It was interesting this morning to hear Ted Heath talking in a recording from his time as PM. It was interesting how he snapped at the reporter for interrupting, who apologised, but also he said oil prices had QUADRUPLED.

[Mark]

mercian said:

Surely the difference is that Putin and his cronies have now explicitly threatened nuclear war on several occasions. Previously Trident could be seen by some as an anachronistic waste of money. Now it's obvious to more people that we need a nuclear deterrent.

But is it?

I have previously said - and still stand by - that if it wasn't for nuclear weapons, we would be kicking Putin's ass and getting him out of Ukraine.

It is the very existance of these weapons that prevents us doing so (and would prevent us doing much against any nuclear armed state gone rogue in the future - and there is a very real danger of Trump getting back in).

Of course, the road to getting rid of these weapons is difficult, near impossible while Putin remains in power, but, get rid we must as, while they exist, less than a dozen people around the globe decide whether we continue as a species. Surely, long term, that is unsustainable, which Putin's threats bring into sharp focus.

[domjg]

May 17, 2022 13:24:37 GMT crossbat11 said:

A thought for the day. Looking at these superficially healthy vacancy and unemployment figures, co-existing as they are with falling living standards, I wonder if paid work now is the route to a secure and comfortable life in the way it was always assumed to be? We've talked a lot about underemployment and precarious work, the lack of decent employment conditions as well as chronically low pay, and it looks now as if high employment figures (low unemployment) now fails to translate into both a healthy economy and personally fulfilling lives. So much of it now appears to be unskilled, low paid and insecure. Is it any wonder that vacancies remain unfilled for so long?

The continuing weakness of trade unions and the steady deregulation of both the employment market and the obligations on employers to provide sick pay, pensions, holidays etc, has led us down a path to a low productivity, low unemployment and low personal satisfaction world of work. P&O's recent actions illustrate this world starkly.

A world of barristas, deliveroo operatives, Amazon clones, hired then fired and then rehired workers and here today, gone tomorrow DHL van drivers. The employment and vacancy figures may look good on paper but I fear they mask an economy that is far from productive and that often provides unfulfilling and insecure work for so many of its citizens.

Paid work appears no longer to be the gateway to the good life as it once was.

Underemployment, helped along by zero hours contracts has been a problem for years. Many of those struggling to makes ends meet have the additional stress of working multiple, low paid part time jobs  the loss of one of which would cause them problems. It's dickensian really. 

I get the impression it's not the availability of the jobs but the quality of the jobs on offer. 

This is not a problem unique to the UK, in Germany they're known as mini jobs but regulations and the safety net are stronger there. 

[steve]

jib

One of the outcomes of Brexit in fact the most likely one was always potentially the shit show we've got.

Saying I would have preferred a different form of Brexit is just sophistry.

I voted to remain in the European union I knew the outcome I was voting for no whatiffery.

You and all other Brexit voters are almost entirely responsible for allowing the opportunity for the Spaffer regime to diminish this country. Only those remainers who had the cognitive dissonance to vote for this corrupt shambles of a government knowing it was led by an incompetent liar share some culpability along with those who couldn't be arsed to vote.

Stop trying to pass the buck and embrace the stupidity.
Alternatively you could apologise.

[Danny]

May 17, 2022 9:50:26 GMT alec said:

Yes, but what the F@ck has that got to do with me? I've suggested a series of measures to prevent infection, not delay it. I don't know what you are talking about. Neither do you, I suspect.

There are no measure to prevent infection. Short of locking yourself in a sealed box and never coming out ever again. You can if you want, but I dont see how thats actually practicable either.

May 17, 2022 10:51:35 GMT alec said:

lens - "No alec, things you have suggested and promoted (mask mandates etc) don't ultimately prevent total case numbers - they just delay them."

You clearly haven't been reading the science.

Alec, you remind me of the saying about the person who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.

I have seen no research whatever about any measure which claims to prevent the spread of covid completely. All any of them do is claim some sort of reduction in spread. That doesnt prevent it spreading, it just means it takes longer for the same number of people to catch it. It still wont die out until sufficient have caught it to achieve herd immunity (of that strain). And then the next strin will roll along, and based on evidence from related corona viruse, this is likely to continue for centuries.

[mercian]

May 17, 2022 13:28:16 GMT Mark said:

mercian said:

Surely the difference is that Putin and his cronies have now explicitly threatened nuclear war on several occasions. Previously Trident could be seen by some as an anachronistic waste of money. Now it's obvious to more people that we need a nuclear deterrent.

But is it?

I have previously said - and still stand by - that if it wasn't for nuclear weapons, we would be kicking Putin's ass and getting him out of Ukraine.

It is the very existance of these weapons that prevents us doing so (and would prevent us doing much against any nuclear armed state gone rogue in the future - and there is a very real danger of Trump getting back in).

Of course, the road to getting rid of these weapons is difficult, near impossible while Putin remains in power, but, get rid we must as, while they exist, less than a dozen people around the globe decide whether we continue as a species. Surely, long term, that is unsustainable, which Putin's threats bring into sharp focus.

Multilateral disarmament is a noble aim, but I don't see how it can ever be achieved.  Even if all current nuclear powers gave them up, what's to prevent some nutcase in a god-forsaken part of the world starting their own programme?  The technology isn't very secret. 

[mercian]

May 17, 2022 13:36:16 GMT steve said:

jib

One of the outcomes of Brexit in fact the most likely one was always potentially the shit show we've got.

Saying I would have preferred a different form of Brexit is just sophistry.

I voted to remain in the European union I knew the outcome I was voting for no whatiffery.

You and all other Brexit voters are almost entirely responsible for allowing the opportunity for the Spaffer regime to diminish this country. Only those remainers who had the cognitive dissonance to vote for this corrupt shambles of a government knowing it was led by an incompetent liar share some culpability along with those who couldn't be arsed to vote.

Stop trying to pass the buck and embrace the stupidity.
Alternatively you could apologise.

So 17 million Leave voters, all the non-voters, and Remainers who voted Tory are all to blame.  Thank goodness for the tiny band of you and your colleagues or where would we be? 

[steve]

alec

The BoE didn't specify any cause for the reduced activity levels they did speculate that post viral complications might have had an impact and it might have been substantial but also that it might not be, they didn't say either was the case.They did however as a passing reference note the 3.9% fall in GDP directly linked to Brexit

Deepti Gurdasani is a British-Indian clinical epidemiologist and statistical geneticist who is a senior lecturer in machine learning at the Queen Mary University of London.
She isn't an economist and has no special knowledge of the functioning of the economy.
As such while competent to comment on the clinical implications she is no better qualified to pontificate on the root causes of lower activity than any one else. Which doesn't mean she might not be right but the implication that the BoE supported this conclusion is misleading.


Given that most of those suffering from long term implications were already economically inactive because of age it's entirely possible that covid as an illness has had no impact at all on the economy. While covid response ,including effectively ending preventative health care almost certainly has.