13-May 2022 : LAB: 39% / CON: 34% / LDEM: 11% / GRN: 6%

[steve]

mercian

Pension credit is worth around £240 a month but only if you are receiving full attendance allowance otherwise it's about £100.
My mother gets both taking her total income to around £13000 pa.About The same as the basic pension in Ireland The equivalent pension for someone with significant needs in western Europe averages around £19000- £25000 pa.

[peterbell]

Sky now reporting that 260 Ukranian soldiers have been allowed to leave the steel plant in Mariupol.

[oldnat]

somerjohn

"Perhaps, as Peter Bell speculated, there may have been a decision at some level to allow an element of realism to creep into Russian public awareness."

That wouldn't be unusual for state directed broadcasters to do, especially when they have silenced those supporting alternatives to the government line.

Of course, comparisons with control of the BBC and the privatisation of Channel 4 would be milder examples.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 22:32:24 GMT somerjohn said:

Isa: "I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for his next appearance on Russian state TV, though."

Didn't this military commentator do something similarly outspoken a few days ago? Perhaps, as Peter Bell speculated, there may have been a decision at some level to allow an element of realism to creep into Russian public awareness. Of course, there will be well informed, influential people in Russia who have a realistic appreciation of the bind Russia has put itself in, and they may have decided to make a move. I hope this is a sign of the ground starting to shift under Putin.

Possibly, I'm not sufficiently knowledgeable to say. His co-presenter certainly hadn't received the memo about allowing some realism to creep in, though. If this does  represent the beginnings of the skids being put under Putin, though, more power to them.

[steve]

In my occasional series of prominent brexitanians  this hypocrite  comes to mind.Attachment Deleted

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 6:49:00 GMT steve said:

I never mention football but I'm going to break this rule for my local team Luton Town.
Just 8 years after returning from conference football they are on the cusp of reaching the premier league.
With a team assembled for less than many premier league players earn in a year and with many of the same staff as in the conference days it's a great achievement.
In an area which has its problems they've added some much needed pleasure.

Now back to slagging off the government.

Academic now, I'm afraid, steve. Huddersfield through to the Championship playoff final at Luton's expense. Damn good effort by the Hatters, though.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 23:06:31 GMT @isa said:

May 16, 2022 6:49:00 GMT steve said:

I never mention football but I'm going to break this rule for my local team Luton Town.
Just 8 years after returning from conference football they are on the cusp of reaching the premier league.
With a team assembled for less than many premier league players earn in a year and with many of the same staff as in the conference days it's a great achievement.
In an area which has its problems they've added some much needed pleasure.

Now back to slagging off the government.

Academic now, I'm afraid, steve . Huddersfield through to the Championship playoff final at Luton's expense. Damn good effort by the Hatters, though.

Well, at least they’ve got hat making to fall back on.

[mercian]

May 16, 2022 22:36:04 GMT steve said:

mercian

Pension credit is worth around £240 a month but only if you are receiving full attendance allowance otherwise it's about £100.
My mother gets both taking her total income to around £13000 pa.About The same as the basic pension in Ireland The equivalent pension for someone with significant needs in western Europe averages around £19000- £25000 pa.

Crikey. I don't think I ever earned £25000 pa except when I worked for myself, and for the last 20 years I was only part-time, but even so.  No wonder davwel said they were over-generous.

[mercian]

May 16, 2022 22:56:00 GMT steve said:

In my occasional series of prominent brexitanians  this hypocrite  comes to mind.<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

Some people used to study in Europe before we joined the EEC and no doubt some still do.  It might not be quite so easy I admit.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 22:36:04 GMT steve said:

mercian

Pension credit is worth around £240 a month but only if you are receiving full attendance allowance otherwise it's about £100.
My mother gets both taking her total income to around £13000 pa.About The same as the basic pension in Ireland The equivalent pension for someone with significant needs in western Europe averages around £19000- £25000 pa.

Blimey, the UK government must be thanking its lucky stars for occupational pensions on those figures then, steve . The Irish basic state pension would appear to be more than £3k p.a. more than the British one.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Pension_(United_Kingdom)

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 23:14:13 GMT @crofty said:

May 16, 2022 23:06:31 GMT @isa said:

Academic now, I'm afraid, steve . Huddersfield through to the Championship playoff final at Luton's expense. Damn good effort by the Hatters, though.

Well, at least they’ve got hat making to fall back on.

Well quite. Unlikely to generate sufficient funds for another promotion push though, I suspect.

[neilj]

Clear, concise and to the point

[alec]

@isa (and others) - the ISW reported a couple of days ago that a crop of Russian bloggers with significant following, usually pro Russian, were extremely negative about the failed Russian river crossing and openly questioning Russian military strategy. The Guardian today has this www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/i-look-at-my-government-differently-losses-in-ukraine-test-russians-faith

This has been an unmitigated disaster for Russia on land, sea and air, and you can't hide that for long. Perhaps things are starting to unravel.

[steve]

One for alec to ponder.
North Korea announce a 121,355,000% increase in covid last week.
Elsewhere case numbers overall and deaths continue to fall

[alec]

steve - why? What's NK got to do with me?

[steve]

alec
While it's gratifying that some realism is being permitted in Russia the reason why these people are being allowed to speak appears to be Kremlin endorsed expectation management.

It's a bit like Brexit on steroids where the original claims of the Sun lit uplands are replaced with the acknowledgement that it's actually a bit shit.
But there's no acknowledgement of the obvious next action which is to stop being an idiot and damaging yourself and reversing course.

[steve]

alec
You are interested in covid numbers this was a really big one, it skewed what would have been a continuing downward trend to produce an apparent 30% increase in cases in a week.
Incidentally you mentioned yesterday that the average number of deaths in the UK was running at 200 with the correcting figure for the weekend now out this appears overly pessimistic with Death rates falling 35% in the last 7 days.

[jib]

"More vacancies than people classed as unemployed".

The end to cheap imported labour has something to do with figure being the lowest since 1974.

Incredible these benefits to UK workers are being realised so quickly. Of course the neo-liberal elite won't be happy.

[hireton]

davwel

This doesn’t suggest to me that the UK state pension is about right:

[steve]

jib
Assuming you are not being ironic do you actually think the fastest falling real wages for twenty years and half a million simply giving up on the jobs market completely are actually " benefits".

I would hate to see what a downside looked like!

[Danny]

May 16, 2022 21:38:29 GMT alec said:

Some reality creeping into Russian state TV coverage of the war -

That was mentioned on morning news, including Putin taking personal charge of the war.

Dangerous to say you are taking personal charge of something if it looks like its going to be a disaster. But on the other hand it does separate you from what has gone before. Everything previous was not you in charge, so it was the fault of nameless generals.

It just might be significiant Russia has agreed to evacuate Mariupol Ukrainian soldiers. I am surprised it has, not least because of reports of it torturing to death captured soldiers.

Putin has an opportunity to snatch personal victory from the jaws of defeat if he can take charge and have any sort of success. Even ending the fighting and bringing the troops home so the loss of Russian soldiers ends, could be portrayed as a victory.

He has just created a stage from which to portray a total defeat as a personal save. So long as he acts quickly and ends the fighting before losses continue and can be blamed on him, personally.  Is Russia about to withdraw?

May 16, 2022 22:12:50 GMT @isa said:

Indeed. An astonishingly frank analysis in the circumstances. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for his next appearance on Russian state TV, though.

These reports from Russian TV can only be officially sanctioned. Its preparing the nation for a run down of the war. The main concern is how Putin survives and ends up a hero despite losing his war. Dont believe he has lost control, he'd be gone already if he had.

[steve]

hireton

While I entirely accept the dramatic increase has huge impacts on incomes and expenditure , with a regime doing nothing meaningful to mitigate the impact.

A single pensioner who actually uses that much energy is highly unlikely to be dependent on state pension alone.
My mother does rely on state benefits her energy bill in her 1 bedroom council flat is currently around £350 a year.

[alec]

The economic impacts of poorly managed covid now starting to trouble the BoE -

Don't think many people have quite understood just how long covid risks all sorts of economic and social impacts yet. The penny will drop in time.

[Danny]

May 17, 2022 6:38:31 GMT steve said:

One for alec to ponder.
North Korea announce a 121,355,000% increase in covid last week.
Elsewhere case numbers overall and deaths continue to fall

Except China.  Not clear how many cases they have, but they are still insisting on the failed policy of lockdown. They will have to accept their population catching covid and living with it. Until they do, Chinese industry and exports could be interrupted at any tiime and for indefinite duration, causing economic crises and shortages all over the world. It will become an internationl impertive for China to abandon its lockdown policy.

May 16, 2022 7:53:39 GMT steve said:

@danny
It isn't an attack on monarchy as such . I would prefer not to have one but Mrs Windsor seems an adequate example of a hereditary head of state as that's what we've got. It's an attack on people who feel that it's necessary to show deference to an individual whose paid a vast fortune irrespective of their abilities or suitability simply because they are alive.

I found 'the crown' very interesting. Whatever its strict accuracy, its a tale about how to maintain an institution which has nothing except the appearance of power and importance.  Without the deference, there is nothing left. Thats why it has to be defended so vigorously, and why it has always been throughout history even when there was more substance to monarchy.

I never used to understand the sumptuary laws, until I realised that only permitting certain people to wear certain clothes made class and power a real visible thing. Being the only people in the country allowed to wear cloth of gold marked you on sight as incredibly important if you did. We dont realise how much we have ditched this public signalling of importance, but it continues in the trappings of royalty, presidents, prime ministers. 

May 17, 2022 6:55:53 GMT jib said:

Incredible these benefits to UK workers are being realised so quickly. Of course the neo-liberal elite won't be happy.

Yeah right. 5% pay rise. 10% inflation. Dont you love that brexit bonus?

[domjg]

May 17, 2022 6:55:53 GMT jib said:

"More vacancies than people classed as unemployed".

The end to cheap imported labour has something to do with figure being the lowest since 1974.

Incredible these benefits to UK workers are being realised so quickly. Of course the neo-liberal elite won't be happy.

Unemployment hasn't been a problem for years, long before the UK left the EU. Underemployment and in work poverty on the other hand has long been a big problem and shows no sign of going anywhere. 

"Incredible these benefits to UK workers are being realised so quickly" - Johnson would be so proud of you.

[barbara]

May 16, 2022 21:50:16 GMT mercian said:

alec He's a brave man. Either Russia isn't quite as totalitarian as I thought, or he's off to the gulag/graveyard.

There are some suggestions that he's doing this with the regime's blessing in order to moderate expectations of the outcome in Ukraine. 
Realism creeping in ideed.

[Deleted]

So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory. He now tells MPs that it will hit 10% pa and his  mythical 2% target is at least three years away.

And he says he can't do anything about 80% of it !.

So-Rishi-the decade and a half of negative real borrowing costs is over. The cynical use of QE  in its final days  as deficit funding is a memory.
Bailey says food price increases  will be "apocalyptic", further energy price shocks are expected-and UK will see " the worst annual drop in income for UK households since the 1950s".

And Bailey can't help you with any of it.

May I make a suggestion before you get the spread sheets out- tell the public the truth about what is coming , and about what you can and cannot do to help.

And stop idiots like Rachel Maclean making  an opportunity for people in stress ( The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest in nearly fifty years with more vacancies than unemployed people in the economy for the first time on record.-T ) ; sound like an insensitive  insult.

This is going to take huge sensitivity, deft political handling-and a lot of money.

I'm not betting on it !

[birdseye]

May 16, 2022 22:36:04 GMT steve said:

mercian

Pension credit is worth around £240 a month but only if you are receiving full attendance allowance otherwise it's about £100.
My mother gets both taking her total income to around £13000 pa.About The same as the basic pension in Ireland The equivalent pension for someone with significant needs in western Europe averages around £19000- £25000 pa.

Thats a quick £120bn on UK government spending pa. Given the parlous state of UK government finances, what would you cut to provide that?

My mother, when she died, was in the same circumstance as yours with the same income. She saved money, since her needs were small, and I provided her with free housing as she did for me when I was a child.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2022 23:21:16 GMT mercian said:

May 16, 2022 22:36:04 GMT steve said:

mercian

Pension credit is worth around £240 a month but only if you are receiving full attendance allowance otherwise it's about £100.
My mother gets both taking her total income to around £13000 pa.About The same as the basic pension in Ireland The equivalent pension for someone with significant needs in western Europe averages around £19000- £25000 pa.

Crikey. I don't think I ever earned £25000 pa except when I worked for myself, and for the last 20 years I was only part-time, but even so.  No wonder davwel said they were over-generous.

The full UK pension (if you qualify with 35 years full NI credits) is under £10k per year.

[Deleted]

May 17, 2022 8:06:49 GMT colin said:

So now we know. Andrew Bailey was wrong to say that inflation would be transitory. He now tells MPs that it will hit 10% pa and his  mythical 2% target is at least three years away.

And he says he can't do anything about 80% of it !.

So-Rishi-the decade and a half of negative real borrowing costs is over. The cynical use of QE  in its final days  as deficit funding is a memory.
Bailey says food price increases  will be "apocalyptic", further energy price shocks are expected-and UK will see " the worst annual drop in income for UK households since the 1950s".

And Bailey can't help you with any of it.

May I make a suggestion before you get the spread sheets out- tell the public the truth about what is coming , and about what you can and cannot do to help.

And stop idiots like Rachel Maclean making  an opportunity for people in stress ( The UK’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest in nearly fifty years with more vacancies than unemployed people in the economy for the first time on record.-T ) ; sound like an insensitive  insult.

This is going to take huge sensitivity, deft political handling-and a lot of money.

I'm not betting on it !

Yeah. Doesn't really matter now who voted what, or who would vote what next time. It's going to be bad, and there's no escaping it.