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Post by davem on Apr 6, 2022 10:31:25 GMT
Thought it would be an idea have a thread on this years local elections which only four weeks ago.
I know from the previous site that there are a few myself included who are involved in local politics, it would be interesting to hear what feelings people are getting on the doorstep.
I will start, in my Ward Washington South, in Sunderland, the Leader of the Council is up for re-election, it has always been a marginal Ward with Labour at times having all three councillors, however the Tories have won here before in 2013 holding two of the three seats, the Lib Dems have had on councillor and in 2019 the Greens won the seat. So an interesting place!
Last year two seats were up for election, as the Green councillor had fallen out with the party and resigned causing the second vacancy. The Tories topped the poll by 13 with Labour 2nd and 3rd and the Tories 4th. Green were 5th Lib Dems, with 480, 6th and UKIP took 88 votes. This year it is a straight fight with Labour, Tories and Lib Dems. The Lib Dems have not campaigned and it appears their candidate is a paper candidate. So a two horse race.
On the doorstep we are finding a number of electors who left Labour over Brexit returning to Labour and no movement the other way. The Tory support seems to be soft . Greens are not voting Tory but Lib Dems seem to be drifting to the Tories. So all to play for.
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 6, 2022 16:46:04 GMT
The latest London poll was Yougov's 28/2-2/3/22 Lab: 56%, Con 24%, LD 8%, Green 8%, ReformUK 2%, Others 1%. (1% lost in rounding). Poll size: 1114
Looking back to when the local council seats were last up for election (YouGov 20-24/4/18) the percentages were: Lab: 52%, Con 31%, LD 10%, Green 3%, UKIP 2% Others 1%. Poll size 1099.
Apart from the swing away from the Tories and towards both Labour and Greens, not a big change over four years.
In Harrow the battle is between Tories and Labour, the only parties with councillors: Lab 55 candidates, Con 55, LD 28, Green 14, ReformUK 3, Independents 8. (55 seats in 22 wards).
I expect an increased Labour majority; the two wards to watch out for are Kenton East and Kenton West, both of which were split between Labour and Tories in 2018. These are very similar to the 2018 wards but with one less councillor (5 rather than 6 in total) with only a small boundary change between them to adjust the electorates.
Overall the boundary changes have produced some difficult to predict wards: Headstone is a combination of Headstone North and Headstone South, the former solid Tory, the latter solid Labour; Marlborough is the western part of the old Marlborough ward, so has lost its solid Labour area (now called Wealdstone South). Broadly, the north of the Borough is Tory and the south Labour, with the exception of the Kentons already mentioned.
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Post by davem on Apr 13, 2022 17:07:02 GMT
With this weekend being when postal votes go out, the current news cycle over Covid fin s and so on could not have come at a worse time for the Tories. In my experience postal votes are returned within two days of being received, so this weekends polls should give an early indication of just how bad things will be for Boris.
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Post by davem on Apr 21, 2022 20:09:59 GMT
Question for those with more knowledge than me.
Washington South Ward was won by the Tories by 15 votes over Labour last year and at the previous election Greens beat Labour by 3 votes, won ing the seat with a vote share of 24.8%. Is this the most marginal and in the country. I know they have been ties in a few wards, but to have two back to back elections with sch tight results it must be up there.
This year the defending Labour candidate is the council leader. One to watch.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 21, 2022 20:38:19 GMT
Question for those with more knowledge than me. Washington South Ward was won by the Tories by 15 votes over Labour last year and at the previous election Greens beat Labour by 3 votes, won ing the seat with a vote share of 24.8%. Is this the most marginal and in the country. I know they have been ties in a few wards, but to have two back to back elections with sch tight results it must be up there. This year the defending Labour candidate is the council leader. One to watch. Can't speak for council elections (that's a big subject!), but amazingly a Westminster seat has been won with an even lower vote share. Belfast South, 2015 General Election, the SDLP candidate won with 24.5% of the vote. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Apr 23, 2022 14:16:49 GMT
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Apr 27, 2022 13:06:02 GMT
As my contribution to the local elections I have decided to keep an eye on my neighbouring borough of Colchester. The Council elects by thirds with all wards involved each time, so it is possible to regularly track changing political fortunes. The last three times the seats were contested produced the following:
2018: Vote share Con 40.4%, Lab 25.3%, Lib Dem 19.9%, Green 7.2%, Ind/Other 7.1%; Seats Con 10, Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1; Turnout 33.1%
2019: Vote share Con 35.2%, Lab 17.7%, Lib Dem 26.6%, Green 13.6%, Ind/Other 6.9%; Seats Con 6, Lab 3, Lib Dem 6, Green 1, Ind 1; Turnout 32.6%
2021: Vote share Con 41.8%, Lab 23.0%, Lib Dem 21.6%, Green 11.1%, Ind/Other 2.5%; Seats Con 9, Lab 4, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Ind 1; Turnout 34.1%
The number of seats available each time varies slightly, as some wards elect two councillors in particular years. In each of the years above the four main parties put up a full slate of candidates so the comparisons are valid.
This year 18 seats are up for grabs. Again the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems have fielded full slates, but the Greens only 12 and, oddly, it seems no independents are standing. This gives the Conservatives a nailed on gain in the previously independent seat. My guess/estimate of the possible result in councillors would be Con 7 or 8, Labour 5 or 6 (the two councillor ward this time is in a strong Labour area), Lib Dems 3 to 5, Green 1. The percentage of votes will be the more interesting part.
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Post by davem on Apr 27, 2022 13:20:13 GMT
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Post by eor on Apr 28, 2022 0:18:43 GMT
davem - hello from Coventry, where it will be... dull. Current composition is LAB 39 CON 15, and a third of the council is up this year. In reality it means probably only two Tory seats that Labour will hope to take, and one or two that Labour might possibly struggle to defend if the Greens or the Coventry Citizens Party build further on progress made in those wards last time, especially if the bin-drivers strike is held against the council. But otherwise, pretty much as you were, even if differential turnout means that the Tories or Labour do rather better/worse than expected by current polls.
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Post by eor on Apr 28, 2022 0:49:00 GMT
On the other hand, I will as usual be spending quite a bit of time refreshing the results for my old council of Swansea.
Labour should retain a comfortable majority, currently holding 48/72 seats, but with wards ranging from 1 to 5 members, combined with all-out elections, it has some potential. Not least because in some of the most populous wards the situation is complex. The biggest ward, Sketty, returned two Tories, two LibDems and one Labour councillor in the last election, which is pretty impressive for multi-member FPTP. The council also currently has four different kinds of independents, three of whom are aligned with the LibDems, including the Non-Aligned councillor, with the exception being the ex-LibDems who currently split the large Uplands ward with Labour.
So very likely some local colour, even if the overall control is very likely to stay with Labour.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 3, 2022 16:41:42 GMT
The thing I should add about Colchester BC for completeness is the current composition of the council, which is:
Conservative 23, Labour 11, Lib Dem 11, Highwoods Independents 3, Green 2, Vacant 1
The council is controlled by an alliance of Conservative and Independent (26 to the opposition's 24). Therefore there is the potential for a change of administration, depending on results and whether the opposition parties were willing to cooperate. The latter is possible as there used to be an "an anybody but Conservative" administration before the Independents swapped sides.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 4, 2022 9:35:50 GMT
All the talk about the last time results compared to what might happen this time round made me check out our last local results.
It was 2018
There were 7 candidates for 2 councillor posts. 2 Tory, 2 Labour, 2 Independent and an LD
This time there are just 4 candidates 2 Tory and 2 Labour
In 2018 the two Independents won, each getting almost double the number of votes that their Tory challengers got.
Weirdly though, those same Independent candidates are now standing as Tories, which, given what the Tories have been going through recently, smacks of opportunism as they presumably hope to mop up the Tory vote too and an ability to have a quite firm grip on their nasal passages.
The two Labour nominees are from out of the Ward so unlikely to do well, given the two Tories/ex Independents occupy a sort of dual Squireship in the major village in the area. From the two Tories point of view they must be hoping that the potential loss of the few who voted for them because they were Independent in 2018 will be compensated for by died in the wool Tories who have no conscience.
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Post by catmanjeff on May 5, 2022 12:59:51 GMT
I'll be abstaining (or spoiling my ballot specifically) this year (Kirklees, safe Labour ward).
Not a single candidate contacted me in person, phone and I didn't get any leaflets either.
If they can't be arsed to at least get me a leaflet to me, I can't be arsed voting for them.
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Post by johntel on May 5, 2022 13:37:28 GMT
My District is Mole Valley - currently Lib Dem controlled with 22/41 seats. I'm anticipating further Lib Dem gains today.
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 13:53:36 GMT
I had to queue to vote in my ward in Sandwell, which I don't remember happening before. It could suggest a higher than usual turnout, or perhaps I just voted at a different time of day.
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Post by caroline on May 5, 2022 15:24:36 GMT
I'll be abstaining (or spoiling my ballot specifically) this year (Kirklees, safe Labour ward). Not a single candidate contacted me in person, phone and I didn't get any leaflets either. If they can't be arsed to at least get me a leaflet to me, I can't be arsed voting for them. This attitude annoys me! If you care about politics, and I assume you do as you are on this polling site, surely you can see how ridiculously selfish this is. Which ever party you support I am sure there are many activists in your area out there working their guts out to get messages to as many electors as possible. With limited resources it is not possible to cover every voter in every constituency, especially in rural areas. If you will only vote if you are personally contacted then the outcome of the election can’t mean much to you. Put something in for Gods sake . If there is no-one delivering leaflets in your area volunteer to do this yourself! Democracy only works if everyone contributes, if you can’t get out and help and can’t afford to contribute financially then the very least you can do is vote. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 15:37:01 GMT
Exciting, (well, not exactly exciting), electoral developments in Somerset, where the five existing district councils and county council are to be replaced by a new Somerset Council of 110 members. When I voted about an hour ago, the tellers advised that turnout was c18%, so probably on course for c30% overall. No counting tonight. They start at 10 am tomorrow. Probably a straight fight between CON and LDEM, with a smattering of LAB, GRN and IND.
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Post by catmanjeff on May 5, 2022 15:41:42 GMT
I'll be abstaining (or spoiling my ballot specifically) this year (Kirklees, safe Labour ward). Not a single candidate contacted me in person, phone and I didn't get any leaflets either. If they can't be arsed to at least get me a leaflet to me, I can't be arsed voting for them. This attitude annoys me! If you care about politics, and I assume you do as you are on this polling site, surely you can see how ridiculously selfish this is. Which ever party you support I am sure there are many activists in your area out there working their guts out to get messages to as many electors as possible. With limited resources it is not possible to cover every voter in every constituency, especially in rural areas. If you will only vote if you are personally contacted then the outcome of the election can’t mean much to you. Put something in for Gods sake . If there is no-one delivering leaflets in your area volunteer to do this yourself! Democracy only works if everyone contributes, if you can’t get out and help and can’t afford to contribute financially then the very least you can do is vote. My vote is important to me, but it must be earned. No-one has earned it. BTW I've stood in and been involved in elections (local and general, as worker and candidate) for about thirty years, so I've done my bit thank you. I think personally party politics is so poor at the moment (especislly locally), I'm glad to be out of it thank you. It's an urban area, with a large well-financed Labour Party (Labour safe seat) and quite large Conservative Party. No excuses other than laziness and taking voters for granted. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 18:31:53 GMT
Brisk turnout in the new ward of Shortlands and Park Langley (Bromley Council).
Polling suggests that not many seats will chamge hands tonight in England outside of London. The most significant contest may be for the NI Assembly, where there is a slight chance that the Alliance could pip the DUP to second place behind SF.
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 18:36:13 GMT
Exciting, (well, not exactly exciting), electoral developments in Somerset, where the five existing district councils and county council are to be replaced by a new Somerset Council of 110 members. When I voted about an hour ago, the tellers advised that turnout was c18%, so probably on course for c30% overall. No counting tonight. They start at 10 am tomorrow. Probably a straight fight between CON and LDEM, with a smattering of LAB, GRN and IND. This could be one to watch for the anticipated impact of the informal tactical alliance berween the LDs and Lab. |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2022 19:15:45 GMT
I'll be abstaining (or spoiling my ballot specifically) this year (Kirklees, safe Labour ward). Not a single candidate contacted me in person, phone and I didn't get any leaflets either. If they can't be arsed to at least get me a leaflet to me, I can't be arsed voting for them. Did the same- no Green candidate and the (competitive) independent is very right wing. Cannot be seen to endorse Starmer. Might have thought a bit harder if the council was marginal. |
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 20:27:18 GMT
Guardian reporting that Lab cavassers are being directed to Wandsworth and Croydon.
Wandsworth is a key Lab target so that you would expect.
Labour just about holds Croydon (40/70 seats) but if canvassers are being directed there at this time, Lab may be concerned about losing it which would change the narrative of London in this election.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 20:46:36 GMT
Guardian reporting that Lab cavassers are being directed to Wandsworth and Croydon. Wandsworth is a key Lab target so that you would expect. Labour just about holds Croydon (40/70 seats) but if canvassers are being directed there at this time, Lab may be concerned about losing it which would change the narrative of London in this election. They'll have to get their skates on. The polls close very shortly. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 20:53:59 GMT
Exciting, (well, not exactly exciting), electoral developments in Somerset, where the five existing district councils and county council are to be replaced by a new Somerset Council of 110 members. When I voted about an hour ago, the tellers advised that turnout was c18%, so probably on course for c30% overall. No counting tonight. They start at 10 am tomorrow. Probably a straight fight between CON and LDEM, with a smattering of LAB, GRN and IND. This could be one to watch for the anticipated impact of the informal tactical alliance berween the LDs and Lab. I suspect in Somerset, any tactical alliance between LDEM and LAB would be informal to the point of non-existent. I was actually surprised to see a LAB candidate on the ballot paper in my ward. |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 5, 2022 21:56:10 GMT
First result of the night.
I can't believe Councillors can be totally unopposed (not at this level).
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 5, 2022 22:10:54 GMT
First result of the night. I can't believe Councillors can be totally unopposed (not at this level). It's not really the first as there are a whole bunch of unopposed returns, especially in Wales. I'm not sure why Britain Elects picked on that one in particular (Labour certainly aren't the main beneficiaries of the phenomenon). |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 5, 2022 22:16:44 GMT
First result of the night. I can't believe Councillors can be totally unopposed (not at this level). It's not really the first as there are a whole bunch of unopposed returns, especially in Wales. I'm not sure why Britain Elects picked on that one in particular (Labour certainly aren't the main beneficiaries of the phenomenon).
Thanks for the update.
I still it weird that in a large council ward, people can stand and not a single other person will challenge them.
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Post by mercian on May 5, 2022 22:36:45 GMT
First seat changing hands?
Cheadle South East (Staffordshire Moorlands):
Conservative GAIN from Independent.
Con: 43.0% (+20.4)
Lab: 40.1% (+14.2)
Ind: 16.9% (-34.7)
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Post by RAF on May 5, 2022 23:04:44 GMT
First seat changing hands? Cheadle South East (Staffordshire Moorlands): Conservative GAIN from Independent. Con: 43.0% (+20.4) Lab: 40.1% (+14.2) Ind: 16.9% (-34.7) Now that's an odd one. Who was the Independent? |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 6, 2022 0:55:25 GMT
Woke up and thought I would have a quick look at the Colchester results so far. As I write 11 of 18 results declared. 6 Con holds, 3 Lab holds, 1 Green hold, 1 Lib Dem hold and 1 Lib Dem gain from Con on about an 11% swing. Turnout is noticeably down on last year.
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