Local election polls and other feedback

[pjw1961]

As the results were coming through rapidly, I have stayed up and put them in my Colchester BC spreadsheet and the final score for 2022 is as follows:

2018: Vote share Con 40.4%, Lab 25.3%, Lib Dem 19.9%, Green 7.2%, Ind/Other 7.1%; Seats Con 10, Lab 4, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1; Turnout 33.1%
2019: Vote share Con 35.2%, Lab 17.7%, Lib Dem 26.6%, Green 13.6%, Ind/Other 6.9%; Seats Con 6, Lab 3, Lib Dem 6, Green 1, Ind 1; Turnout 32.6%
2021: Vote share Con 41.8%, Lab 23.0%, Lib Dem 21.6%, Green 11.1%, Ind/Other 2.5%; Seats Con 9, Lab 4, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Ind 1; Turnout 34.1%
2022: Vote share Con 35.5%, Lab 26.9%, Lib Dem 28.7%, Green 8.8%, Ind/Other Nil%; Seats Con 6, Lab 6, Lib Dem 5, Green 1; Turnout 32.0%

As noted earlier the Greens only ran 12 candidates this time (18 seats) and there were no Independents.

My seat predictions stood up well, with one exception. The seat vacated by the Highwood Independents fell not to the Conservatives as I anticipated but to Labour. The quirks of FPTP are on display as Labour finished third in terms of vote share but got the same number of councillors as the Conservatives and one more than the Lib Dems.

2 Seats changed hands compared to 2021 - Stanway, a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives on a swing of 11.6% and the Highwoods one. With no Green or Independent standing all three main parties increased vote share, but whereas the Cons went from 29.8% to 37.9%, Labour went from 18% to 40.8%!

These results are likely to produce a change in control of the council assuming a 'traffic light' coalition can be agreed. 

[Deleted]

Very bizarre LAB gain in the Bitterne Park ward of Southampton - fairly leafy, fairly Brexity, Tory side of the city, never won by Labour EVER (as far as I can see - I can't be bothered to look before the mid-90s).

Me wonders if there is still a shift happening since 2018 where the the north and midlands are very excited about Brexit/Boris and they're still catching up and the South are turning against it.

[Deleted]

The poshest, leafiest ward in Southampton (Bassett) has just been won by the LDs - quite surprised. The first LD win in 12 years here and the first time they've taken this ward since 2006.

UPDATE

Bassett - Southampton - was once the only Tory ward here during the Blair years. Today it's gone Lib Dem but nowhere else has so far. Is this a small pattern which we should be aware of? All the super-posh leafy swing seats go LD like Winchester, St Albans, Carshalton etc? Would be good for Labour and bad for the Tories...

[hireton]

Tory pollster James Johnson giving some advice about interpretation of "Red Wall" results:

[pete]

Doesn't look as if Labour did that well.
Maybe cost of living isn't hitting home yet?

[pjw1961]

One final post on Colchester's results. My comparisons above re wards/seats are with 2021, because this makes the most sense in councils that elect by thirds. However, if you want the comparison with 2018 , which is technically the last time these councillors were contested, it would be:

Con - held 6, lost 4
Lab - held 5, gained 1
Lib Dem - held 2, gained 3
Green - gained 1
Independent - lost 1

Edit: the BBC show different figures for this calculation for Lab and Lib Dem, but they are wrong and I am right. They also got the year wrong (says changes from 2021, which would be different again).

[davem]

Just getting up, having been at the count in Sunderland, to put a little context on the results there, Labour are happy with the progress made, yes one seat down from 2018, Lib Dems 2 up Tories 1 down from 2018. However the change from last year Labour up 4 Tories down 5 Lib Dems up 1.

This was the one year that Labour were in danger, not much, but if the pattern of the previous two election had continued they could have lost control. Now with two years of gains likely Sunderland will not be that interesting to the rest of the country.

[steamdrivenandy]

Well our two local Indies, who morphed into being Tories, got re-elected but the vote compared to last time is interesting.

The numbers who voted are almost identical at 3146 this time and 3154 in 2018

Last time round our two Indies plus the Tories polled a total of 2601

This time the two Indies who became Tories polled 2159

So a 17% reduction in ROC vote.

Last time the two Labour candidates polled 458

This time their vote was 987

The Lib Dem last time polled 100 and there was no LD this time.

If you add the LD to Labour's vote last time you get 558.

So the LOC vote increased by 429 or 77%.

As there were two votes per elector, that suggests something like 215 people who voted Indy/Tory last time, voted Labour this time, a swing of 13.7%

For our half of the ward that won't worry Bill Cash or whoever replaces him in a 2024 GE, but Aaron Bell, the Tory MP for the other half of the ward will be worried.

[catmanjeff]

Kirklees looking like moving to Lab maj from NOC.

********************************

Labour end up with 36/69, so take control of Kirklees Council.

[leftieliberal]

Apr 6, 2022 16:46:04 GMT leftieliberal said:

The latest London poll was Yougov's 28/2-2/3/22 Lab: 56%, Con 24%, LD 8%, Green 8%, ReformUK 2%, Others 1%. (1% lost in rounding). Poll size: 1114

Looking back to when the local council seats were last up for election (YouGov 20-24/4/18) the percentages were: Lab: 52%, Con 31%, LD 10%, Green 3%, UKIP 2% Others 1%. Poll size 1099.

Apart from the swing away from the Tories and towards both Labour and Greens, not a big change over four years.

In Harrow the battle is between Tories and Labour, the only parties with councillors: Lab 55 candidates, Con 55, LD 28, Green 14, ReformUK 3, Independents 8. (55 seats in 22 wards).

I expect an increased Labour majority; the two wards to watch out for are Kenton East and Kenton West, both of which were split between Labour and Tories in 2018. These are very similar to the 2018 wards but with one less councillor (5 rather than 6 in total) with only a small boundary change between them to adjust the electorates.

Overall the boundary changes have produced some difficult to predict wards: Headstone is a combination of Headstone North and Headstone South, the former solid Tory, the latter solid Labour; Marlborough is the western part of the old Marlborough ward, so has lost its solid Labour area (now called Wealdstone South). Broadly, the north of the Borough is Tory and the south Labour, with the exception of the Kentons already mentioned.

This just shows I should stick to analysing pollsters and avoid making predictions. While Labour managed to win Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster councils from the Tories, which one would expect from the polls above, they suffered a disastrous reverse in Harrow, going from a 7-seat majority in 2018 to a 7-seat majority for the Tories in 2022. Kenton East and Kenton West both went all-Tory from split wards; Centenary (previously called Queensbury) went from 3 Labour to 3 Tory councillors, but most surprising of all was the result in Edgware ward (2 Tory, 1 Labour with the Labour councillor coming 3rd only 79 votes ahead of the losing Tory). The last time the Tories won this area it was called Stanmore South and it was at the height of the Falklands War in 1982. So there are only 3 Labour councillors in the Harrow East constituency now out of 23.

The west of the Borough showed rather fewer surprises with Labour holding on to Headstone and Marlborough wards; the chief surprise here was one of the Tory candidates in Rayners Lane getting elected in second place in a two-member ward (He was the ex-Labour Leader of the Council, who had fallen out with them in 2013, formed the Independent Labour Group which contested the 2014 Council elections, and later joined the Tories).

So why did Labour lose in Harrow? Largely, I think it was down to local factors. The outgoing Labour administration was widely seen as incompetent, even by Labour members, and had consistently increased Council Tax by the maximum allowed while at the same time cutting services. If the Falklands factor is a precedent, then we are in for 12 years of Tory control, following the 19 years (apart from 2006-2010 and a brief interlude in 2013-14) of Labour control. I hope that we get some Lib Dem representation back on the Council soon. I beginning to appreciate how my late father-in-law felt as a Labour activist in South-West Suffolk. He had hoped for a Labour Government for decades and then got Tony Blair (he was more a Christian Socialist, so naturally supported Gordon Brown).

Addendum 12 noon

At church this morning, one of my fellow congregants who used to work for the local Council mentioned the recent corruption allegations in Harrow of which I was unaware. Apparently Bob Blackman the Harrow East MP had raised them in the House of Commons shortly before the election, but they date back to last August. Here is the reporting in the Evening Standard www.standard.co.uk/news/london/kickbacks-harrow-london-council-repairs-scam-bob-blackman-b996315.html

[leftieliberal]

Cazenove ward Hackney - Labour suspends their by-election candidate
www.onlondon.co.uk/hackney-labour-cazenove-candidate-for-council-by-election-suspended/

If the by-election on Thursday results in an "Independent gain from Labour" don't be surprised.

[davem]

Ok only about six weeks to go to the local elections.

I thought it would be good to bump this and have discussions about how things look in individual councils, either where you live or where you know people.

I will start with Sunderland.

The last time the seats up for election was 2021 and the Tories had one of their best nights for decades and Labour made significant losses, to the extent that in 2022 the Tories and Lib Dem’s were confident that Labour would lose overall control of the council.

2021 saw Labour lose 9 seats and the Greens their only seat. The Tories gained 6 and the Lib Dem’s 4.

Last year, 2023 saw Labour and the Lib Dem’s progress at the Tories expense. The Tories winning only 3 of the 25 wards.

So with that back drop just standing still from last year would see the Tories “lose” 5 seats ( one seat has seen a Tory defect to Reform, giving them their only seat on any council in the region) and another defect to Labour, only to be kicked out after he was arrested and held in remand prison since last autumn.

The word is, unsurprisingly, that the Tories are focused on defending seats and not making gains. So on that basis their defences from 2021 are:

Tory wins in 2021

St Anne’s Maj 3
Washington South Maj 15
Ryhope Maj 189
Barnes Maj 243
Fulwell Maj over Lib Dem’s 256 (over Lab 1094)
St Peter’s Maj 752
St Chad’s Maj 752
St Micheal’s Maj 1056.


If they are talking about defending what they won last year, then they won 3 wards

St Micheal’s Maj 54 that is a massive swing since 2021!
St Peter’s Maj 188
St Chad’s Maj 408

Based on the results in 2021 and the swing since then they lose St Peter’s and St Chad’s and retain St Micheal’s

Based on last years results they lose St Micheal’s and St Peter’s but retain St Chad’s by 2%. So tight on any measure.

So on that basis you could see the Tories losing 7 of their seats 6 to Labour and one to the LibDems and possibly one more to Labour.

As far as Labour LibDem wards go, Hendon will be an interesting ward, the Lib Dem’s won it in 2021, but Labour won it in the last two elections, last year by only 3 votes.

It will also be interesting to see if the announcement of the Crown Works Studios in Pallion Ward (8500 jobs and over £370m of economic economy activity per year, see the ruling Labour Party make any inroads to a large Lib Dem majority in a once safe Labour Ward.