domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 11, 2024 19:45:14 GMT
A good article by Patrick Cockburn on Ukraine. This should be in the i newspaper tomorrow; as a subscriber I am able to read them in advance. He makes the case why Ukraine needs peace negotiations with Russia. Do you have a link at all? I can't seem to find it |
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Post by alec on Feb 11, 2024 22:22:17 GMT
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Post by leftieliberal on Feb 12, 2024 9:47:47 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2024 10:16:27 GMT
Add in Poland which is going gangbusters militarily and that whole northern "front" is both getting the message and responding. With US Republicans still holding up the next tranche of aid to UKraine and the true horror of a Trump presidency now emerging from his own lips , NATO is beginning to ponder its future:- edition.cnn.com/2024/02/12/europe/trump-comments-reaction-nato-stoltenberg-intl-hnk/index.htmlThose Nordic/Baltic/Polish military plans are not to defend UKraine , but to defend themselves after a defenceless Ukraine falls to Putin. In the ensuing EU/NATO infighting & disagreement,* UK will need to decide its position. Part of that North Eastern Military Alliance seems the obvious home. Building on this :- en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Expeditionary_Force#:~:text=The%20Joint%20Expeditionary%20Force%20(JEF,Lithuania)%2C%20and%20the%20Netherlands. * Absent USA in NATO-will EU countries want to buy American kit ? If not then the old arguments about EU procurement come to the fore. Meanwhile Russia produces ten artillery shells for each one that Europeans make. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2024 17:27:45 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2024 11:55:36 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2024 12:00:31 GMT
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Feb 13, 2024 15:12:43 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2024 9:04:50 GMT
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Post by johntel on Feb 17, 2024 20:21:47 GMT
Military aid actually committed (rather than promised) to Ukraine:  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2024 10:05:43 GMT
Macron's suggestion that EU troops in Ukraine " cannot be ruled out" met with a swift response from Putin :-
"“The very fact of discussing the possibility of sending certain contingents to Ukraine from Nato countries is a very important new element,In that case, we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability [of a direct conflict].”
Dmitry Peskov
Mind you given the response of other western leaders , Peskov can relax :-
"Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, directly and emphatically ruled out any suggestion that a Nato or European state would send ground forces to Ukraine. Robert Habeck, the German vice-chancellor, gave a more barbed riposte, saying that Macron should instead look to send more weaponry. Germany’s arms provision to Ukraine has far outstripped France’s, despite their respective defence budgets being of similar size.
“I’m pleased that France is thinking about how to increase its support for Ukraine, but if I could give it a word of advice: supply more weapons,” Habeck said.
Scholz’s stance was echoed by his counterparts in Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hungary, as well as by Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general.
The White House said President Biden “has been clear that the US will not send troops to fight in Ukraine”. And a spokesman for Rishi Sunak said: “Beyond the small number of personnel we do have in the country supporting the armed forces of Ukraine, we haven’t got any plans for large-scale deployment.”
Prime minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden, which within days will become the newest member of Nato, also poured cold water on the idea, saying: “It’s not on the cards at all for the moment.”
Times.
What is so typical of this latest piece of Macron grandstanding is that in the Red Sea , where 50 merchant vessels have been targeted by the Houthis and their Iranian mentors, 27 have been hit, World Trade supply lines are disrupted and import prices increased, France has patrol boats. But they are tasked to protect French sips-not join with US/UK in trying to protect World Trade.
I note also that Egypt-a vital interlocutor in the Palestinian issue is losing 50% of its Suez Canal transit revenues.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 1, 2024 8:42:48 GMT
The current situation on the ground looks worrying. Russia is incrementally gaining territory in a number of areas, effectively wiping out the gains Ukraine made in their counter-offensive last year. The quantity, timeliness and reliability of western aid has not been sufficient to dislodge the Russians who now seem to have regained the initiative. For the past eighteen months, this war has been one of grinding attrition - the basic dynamics of which in terms of numbers, as I and others have pointed out previously, favours the Russians.
Whether the Russians stick will local incremental gains, or attempt to launch an offensive in the spring after the rasputitsa, we will have to wait and see. Without a significant increase in Western aid its hard to see Kyiv prevailing. Personally, I think element of the Republican Party are playing a very dangerous game. A failure of foreign policy in Ukraine obviously hurts Biden, so domestically they have little incentive to support more aid, or to a level where Biden can claim a success.
Unfortunately, it does still look like the most likely outcome is some form of negotiated peace which will include territorial gains to Russia and likely change of regime in Kyiv.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 1, 2024 10:56:51 GMT
Just watched this - an analysis I completely agree with (and is consistent with a number of other sources I have seen). www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFZkukqojk0The west continued sin of complacency is shocking.
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Post by johntel on Mar 1, 2024 11:03:17 GMT
The question is, will Putin prioritise completing the existing occupied oblasts first or go for a more aggressive but riskier strategy towards Odessa and Kharkiv? And will the success of the offensive affect the result of the US presidential election?
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 1, 2024 12:39:56 GMT
The question is, will Putin prioritise completing the existing occupied oblasts first or go for a more aggressive but riskier strategy towards Odessa and Kharkiv? And will the success of the offensive affect the result of the US presidential election? , difficult to say at this stage. I think a number of people fell into the trap of thinking the Russian's were completely inept and mindless in their approach, and failed to appreciate the change in nature of the the conflict and its implications. The Russians are taking a very calculated approach, which currently seems to have given them the initiative.
I guess it will come down to how brittle, under-maned and under-supplied the Ukrainian lines prove to be. They didn't have the manpower to man their lines, conduct a successful offensive and build defensives to the extent the Russians were able to do. The Russian forces are far from invincible, but if the current approach is getting them results then they are likely to keep to it. My own guess, and it's just that, is that the Russians know their limitations and are unlikely to be making detailed plans for capturing those two objectives. More likely, they will seek to probe the lines for weakness and exploit them were possible, most likely making relatively modest gains in territory.
I think what happens in Ukraine is unlikely to be a major factor in the US Presidential elections, unless there is some form of collapse on the Ukrainian side. I made the observation a couple of months ago that at some point this year there will be move towards a negotiated peace (although that was made on the assumption of a more favourable view of the Ukrainian position). If Trump wins, I think there will be a ceasefire/peace agreement which will secure Putin his gains. He will calculate that Trump is too unpredictable and likely to inflict far more damage on the Western alliance than he can, and that its best to bank his gains and then sit back and see what happens. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2024 9:13:20 GMT
You have to feel sorry for Zelensky-trying to prosecute a defensive war with friends like this :- "The head of the German air force used a telephone line that was not encrypted to discuss highly sensitive military secrets including the use of British “people on the ground” who would be able to help Germany deploy cruise missiles to Ukraine. Britain and other Nato allies will be dismayed at the security breach, described by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, as “very serious”. Russia intercepted talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line, for top secret military planning. Included was confirmation that the British military is deployed in Ukraine, and could be used for training to help prevent German political embarrassment, as well as important details on the deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles. Gerhartz, head of the operations and exercises department, held the 38-minute conference call on February 19, while outside Germany, to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid political divisions in Scholz’s coalition over the move. Gerhartz began the call by stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles — this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours”. “If we’re asked about mission planning. I know how the British do this. They always use ‘reach back’ . They have several people on the ground,” said Gerhartz, according to a Russian recording of the call, confirmed as authey Germany’s defence ministry.ntic b
In another security breach, Gerhartz explained how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. The air force general is said to have joined the conversation from his mobile phone from a hotel room in Singapore.
The revelations will help Russian intelligence to track and locate, potentially targeting, such vehicles in Europe and on Ukraine’s territory. Gerhartz said that Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine."
Times |
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Post by johntel on Mar 4, 2024 12:40:12 GMT
You have to feel sorry for Zelensky-trying to prosecute a defensive war with friends like this :- "The head of the German air force used a telephone line that was not encrypted to discuss highly sensitive military secrets including the use of British “people on the ground” who would be able to help Germany deploy cruise missiles to Ukraine. Britain and other Nato allies will be dismayed at the security breach, described by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, as “very serious”. Russia intercepted talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line, for top secret military planning. Included was confirmation that the British military is deployed in Ukraine, and could be used for training to help prevent German political embarrassment, as well as important details on the deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles. Gerhartz, head of the operations and exercises department, held the 38-minute conference call on February 19, while outside Germany, to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid political divisions in Scholz’s coalition over the move. Gerhartz began the call by stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles — this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours”. “If we’re asked about mission planning. I know how the British do this. They always use ‘reach back’ . They have several people on the ground,” said Gerhartz, according to a Russian recording of the call, confirmed as authey Germany’s defence ministry.ntic b
In another security breach, Gerhartz explained how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. The air force general is said to have joined the conversation from his mobile phone from a hotel room in Singapore.
The revelations will help Russian intelligence to track and locate, potentially targeting, such vehicles in Europe and on Ukraine’s territory. Gerhartz said that Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine."
TimesThe head of the German air force should be fired. But at least the leak has been revealed now - who knows what even more damaging things could have been given away in the future if it hadn't been. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 4, 2024 21:07:35 GMT
You have to feel sorry for Zelensky-trying to prosecute a defensive war with friends like this :- "The head of the German air force used a telephone line that was not encrypted to discuss highly sensitive military secrets including the use of British “people on the ground” who would be able to help Germany deploy cruise missiles to Ukraine. Britain and other Nato allies will be dismayed at the security breach, described by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, as “very serious”. Russia intercepted talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line, for top secret military planning. Included was confirmation that the British military is deployed in Ukraine, and could be used for training to help prevent German political embarrassment, as well as important details on the deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles. Gerhartz, head of the operations and exercises department, held the 38-minute conference call on February 19, while outside Germany, to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid political divisions in Scholz’s coalition over the move. Gerhartz began the call by stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles — this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours”. “If we’re asked about mission planning. I know how the British do this. They always use ‘reach back’ . They have several people on the ground,” said Gerhartz, according to a Russian recording of the call, confirmed as authey Germany’s defence ministry.ntic b
In another security breach, Gerhartz explained how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. The air force general is said to have joined the conversation from his mobile phone from a hotel room in Singapore.
The revelations will help Russian intelligence to track and locate, potentially targeting, such vehicles in Europe and on Ukraine’s territory. Gerhartz said that Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine."
TimesFriends who provide far more financial assistance and equipment than the UK ever could? I love the way you put 'times' after it as if that's a mark of good, objective reporting. It is of course anything but. They love, as you do,any opportunity to eurobash. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 4, 2024 21:09:52 GMT
You have to feel sorry for Zelensky-trying to prosecute a defensive war with friends like this :- "The head of the German air force used a telephone line that was not encrypted to discuss highly sensitive military secrets including the use of British “people on the ground” who would be able to help Germany deploy cruise missiles to Ukraine. Britain and other Nato allies will be dismayed at the security breach, described by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, as “very serious”. Russia intercepted talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line, for top secret military planning. Included was confirmation that the British military is deployed in Ukraine, and could be used for training to help prevent German political embarrassment, as well as important details on the deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles. Gerhartz, head of the operations and exercises department, held the 38-minute conference call on February 19, while outside Germany, to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid political divisions in Scholz’s coalition over the move. Gerhartz began the call by stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles — this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours”. “If we’re asked about mission planning. I know how the British do this. They always use ‘reach back’ . They have several people on the ground,” said Gerhartz, according to a Russian recording of the call, confirmed as authey Germany’s defence ministry.ntic b
In another security breach, Gerhartz explained how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. The air force general is said to have joined the conversation from his mobile phone from a hotel room in Singapore.
The revelations will help Russian intelligence to track and locate, potentially targeting, such vehicles in Europe and on Ukraine’s territory. Gerhartz said that Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine."
TimesThe head of the German air force should be fired. But at least the leak has been revealed now - who knows what even more damaging things could have been given away in the future if it hadn't been. Whoever decided it was a good idea to have this conversation on WebEx (apparently this was not standard and was presumably to accommodate the participant joining from Singapore) should be fired. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2024 21:12:56 GMT
You have to feel sorry for Zelensky-trying to prosecute a defensive war with friends like this :- "The head of the German air force used a telephone line that was not encrypted to discuss highly sensitive military secrets including the use of British “people on the ground” who would be able to help Germany deploy cruise missiles to Ukraine. Britain and other Nato allies will be dismayed at the security breach, described by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, as “very serious”. Russia intercepted talks between Lieutenant General Ingo Gerhartz and three senior Luftwaffe officers as they used standard off-the-shelf Webex video conference software, running on an office line, for top secret military planning. Included was confirmation that the British military is deployed in Ukraine, and could be used for training to help prevent German political embarrassment, as well as important details on the deployment of British Storm Shadow missiles. Gerhartz, head of the operations and exercises department, held the 38-minute conference call on February 19, while outside Germany, to discuss the potential deployment of German Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine amid political divisions in Scholz’s coalition over the move. Gerhartz began the call by stating that “no one knows why the federal chancellor is blocking the dispatch of the missiles — this gives rise to all sorts of outlandish rumours”. “If we’re asked about mission planning. I know how the British do this. They always use ‘reach back’ . They have several people on the ground,” said Gerhartz, according to a Russian recording of the call, confirmed as authey Germany’s defence ministry.ntic b
In another security breach, Gerhartz explained how the French “send [Audi] Q7s loaded with Scalp missiles to Ukraine”. The air force general is said to have joined the conversation from his mobile phone from a hotel room in Singapore.
The revelations will help Russian intelligence to track and locate, potentially targeting, such vehicles in Europe and on Ukraine’s territory. Gerhartz said that Britain had outfitted Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadows and could help with the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine."
TimesFriends who provide far more financial assistance and equipment than the UK ever could? The relevance of which is ? |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 4, 2024 21:15:16 GMT
Friends who provide far more financial assistance and equipment than the UK ever could? The relevance of which is ? That without the Germans they'd be totally screwed, especially with the Americans currently pretending it's 1940 again as they 'want no further entanglement in European wars'. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 4, 2024 21:25:37 GMT
The question is, will Putin prioritise completing the existing occupied oblasts first or go for a more aggressive but riskier strategy towards Odessa and Kharkiv? And will the success of the offensive affect the result of the US presidential election? , difficult to say at this stage. I think a number of people fell into the trap of thinking the Russian's were completely inept and mindless in their approach, and failed to appreciate the change in nature of the the conflict and its implications. The Russians are taking a very calculated approach, which currently seems to have given them the initiative.
I guess it will come down to how brittle, under-maned and under-supplied the Ukrainian lines prove to be. They didn't have the manpower to man their lines, conduct a successful offensive and build defensives to the extent the Russians were able to do. The Russian forces are far from invincible, but if the current approach is getting them results then they are likely to keep to it. My own guess, and it's just that, is that the Russians know their limitations and are unlikely to be making detailed plans for capturing those two objectives. More likely, they will seek to probe the lines for weakness and exploit them were possible, most likely making relatively modest gains in territory.
I think what happens in Ukraine is unlikely to be a major factor in the US Presidential elections, unless there is some form of collapse on the Ukrainian side. I made the observation a couple of months ago that at some point this year there will be move towards a negotiated peace (although that was made on the assumption of a more favourable view of the Ukrainian position). If Trump wins, I think there will be a ceasefire/peace agreement which will secure Putin his gains. He will calculate that Trump is too unpredictable and likely to inflict far more damage on the Western alliance than he can, and that its best to bank his gains and then sit back and see what happens.It's pretty inept to lose 14 combat aircraft in two weeks I think it was as well as a further AWACs equivalent aircraft (of which they only had 7 to begin with) and a flying command post. Apparently these were previously constantly circling over the sea of Azov and now there are none, meaning Russian pilots are flying blind and have to get far closer to their targets which is why more combat aircraft are being picked off. It's also pretty inept to allow drones to strike targets in St Petersburg. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2024 21:34:57 GMT
The relevance of which is ? That without the Germans they'd be totally screwed, especially with the Americans currently pretending it's 1940 again as they 'want no further entanglement in European wars'. The balance sheet of German military help is one thing. The effectiveness is another-as with the Leopards. Frankly the hotch potch of countries and their various "contributions" and varying speeds of response must be an absolute nightmare for the Ukraine militaRY. If Trump stops US help -let alone NATO involvement I wouldn't give Ukraine 6 months . And as for any ideas of an EU strategic defence policy with a unified command and procurement and appropriate funding. Forget it ! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 5, 2024 19:09:11 GMT
It's pretty inept to lose 14 combat aircraft in two weeks I think it was as well as a further AWACs equivalent aircraft (of which they only had 7 to begin with) and a flying command post. Apparently these were previously constantly circling over the sea of Azov and now there are none, meaning Russian pilots are flying blind and have to get far closer to their targets which is why more combat aircraft are being picked off. It's also pretty inept to allow drones to strike targets in St Petersburg. , I think you may be missing the two key points. The first question is why are the Russians knowingly taking greater risk with their aircraft, bringing them more in range of anti-air defences? The second is if the Ukrainians can make good use of what is sent them, why aren't we sending more? The answer to the first, is probably they see a chance to make serious advances and press their current advantage. so its a calculated loss they are taking - they wont be able to sustain losses at this rate for too long (its not like the case with tanks where they have a massive stockpile). They have been much more cautious with their planes since the losses they took early on - but in some areas recently they have effectively obtained air-superiority. Second, the higher loss rate will also be driven by better systems with greater range and accuracy being given to the Ukrainians - the west really needs to get its act together in terms of the logistic/material support, especially as the only way Ukraine can counter its numerical disadvantage in manpower is via force multipliers. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 5, 2024 20:44:40 GMT
It's pretty inept to lose 14 combat aircraft in two weeks I think it was as well as a further AWACs equivalent aircraft (of which they only had 7 to begin with) and a flying command post. Apparently these were previously constantly circling over the sea of Azov and now there are none, meaning Russian pilots are flying blind and have to get far closer to their targets which is why more combat aircraft are being picked off. It's also pretty inept to allow drones to strike targets in St Petersburg. , I think you may be missing the two key points. The first question is why are the Russians knowingly taking greater risk with their aircraft, bringing them more in range of anti-air defences? The second is if the Ukrainians can make good use of what is sent them, why aren't we sending more? The answer to the first, is probably they see a chance to make serious advances and press their current advantage. so its a calculated loss they are taking - they wont be able to sustain losses at this rate for too long (its not like the case with tanks where they have a massive stockpile). They have been much more cautious with their planes since the losses they took early on - but in some areas recently they have effectively obtained air-superiority. Second, the higher loss rate will also be driven by better systems with greater range and accuracy being given to the Ukrainians - the west really needs to get its act together in terms of the logistic/material support, especially as the only way Ukraine can counter its numerical disadvantage in manpower is via force multipliers. I could be wrong but it sounds like they have been able to take out more combat aircraft because these are now flying blind and take more risks due to the loss and new vulnerability of the radar and command post aircraft that guided them rather than that they are flying bolder missions. Perhaps these are newly vulnerable due to a new weapon? The Russians cannot afford to lose these AWACS type aircraft. It's two down, five to go. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Mar 5, 2024 22:31:41 GMT
I could be wrong but it sounds like they have been able to take out more combat aircraft because these are now flying blind and take more risks due to the loss and new vulnerability of the radar and command post aircraft that guided them rather than that they are flying bolder missions. Perhaps these are newly vulnerable due to a new weapon? The Russians cannot afford to lose these AWACS type aircraft. It's two down, five to go. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Mar 6, 2024 20:42:11 GMT
Apropos of some irritating comment pieces in the European press, I just want to say how much I hate the word 'escalation'. It's basically a synonym for abdicating responsibility.
Many of a naive or perhaps even willfully Russophillic bent, especially in Germany, are always banging on about this or that next level of support for Ukraine being 'escalation'.
With Putin, and Russia more generally you de-escalate by showing strength and resolve as has been shown multiple times throughout this crisis.
With Russia you escalate by showing weakness, by hesitating, by rolling over.
I just don't understand why many Germans especially still just don't get it, after everything that's happened and warnings of threats to other countries. It's perhaps an example of how hard it is to change people's minds when they are ideologically wedded to a concept, in this case cold war protest style pacifism.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2024 9:17:05 GMT
Apropos of some irritating comment pieces in the European press, I just want to say how much I hate the word 'escalation'. It's basically a synonym for abdicating responsibility. Many of a naive or perhaps even willfully Russophillic bent, especially in Germany, are always banging on about this or that next level of support for Ukraine being 'escalation'. With Putin, and Russia more generally you de-escalate by showing strength and resolve as has been shown multiple times throughout this crisis. With Russia you escalate by showing weakness, by hesitating, by rolling over. I just don't understand why many Germans especially still just don't get it, after everything that's happened and warnings of threats to other countries. It's perhaps an example of how hard it is to change people's minds when they are ideologically wedded to a concept, in this case cold war protest style pacifism. If this is correct the Germans -and the rest of us-are going to have to come to terms with it :- news.err.ee/1609274853/lithuanian-intelligence-russia-preparing-for-long-confrontation-with-natoThere was no mention of this in Hunt's Budget ! committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/200289/uk-defence-no-credible-government-plan-to-deliver-desired-military-capabilities/ |
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Post by johntel on Mar 11, 2024 11:44:46 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2024 13:18:34 GMT
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