|
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 17, 2022 22:14:30 GMT
Telegraph has this headlining…
“France continued to issue dozens of arms export licences to Russia after the EU imposed an embargo on weapons sales to Vladimir Putin’s regime in 2014, media reports claim.
According to the investigative website Disclose, between 2015 and 2020 French companies exported military equipment to Russia worth €152m (£127m), with the government issuing companies more than 70 licences to export arms to Moscow.
Another report by the independent group of journalists Investigate Europe revealed that 10 EU member states continued to export military equipment to Russia after the 2014 embargo, but that France was by far the biggest offender, accounting for 44 per cent of sales.”
and…
“Russia planning lightning advance to encircle Ukrainian army and claim victory
Build-up of navy forces in Black Sea which appear ready to launch attack on Odesa could be a feint, warn experts”
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 22:21:03 GMT
Beth Rigby interviewed Mikhael Khodorkovski on Sky. His message was we are behind the curve on Putin.. He is a "fascist gangster" who will exploit every failure to stand up to him.
a riveting piece of tv journalism.
|
|
|
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 17, 2022 22:30:04 GMT
They also supply a graphic which gives the amounts of arms exported to Russia in millions of Euros from 2015 - 2020
France 152 million euros
Germany 121.8
Italy 22.4
…
If you’re wondering, UK was listed at 2.4 million.
Then it gets a bit vague: the article talks about exports authorised since 2015, but France say it was delivering on contracts concluded earlier. Then again…
“Figures from the EU Council Working Party on Conventional Arms Exports (COARM), analysed by Investigate Europe, show that the number of licences issued by France allowing companies to export military equipment to Russia spiked in 2015, immediately after the EU embargo, which was implemented in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and involvement in the Donbas region.”
|
|
|
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 18, 2022 1:13:17 GMT
Meanwhile in the Times…
“An elite Ukrainian drone unit has destroyed dozens of “priority targets” by attacking Russian forces as they sleep, The Times can reveal.
Aerorozvidka, a specialist air reconnaissance unit within the army, has been picking off tanks, command trucks and vehicles carrying electronic equipment since the invasion began.”
…
“Russian forces are static when night falls, he explained, with their fear of Ukrainian shelling forcing them to hide their tanks in villages between houses, knowing that conventional artillery cannot risk hitting civilians.
But immobile convoys are the prime targets of Aerorozvidka, which has 50 squads of expert drone pilots.
Using heavy-duty octocopter drones — modified to drop anti-tank grenades and to see with thermal cameras — the darkness is their greatest advantage.”
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Mar 18, 2022 7:31:58 GMT
UK is doing every country facing a Cost of Living crisis a favour. Unpalatable as it is then the explanation for Boris visiting Saudi and UAE is as simples as it gets. Someone has to ask as: "..Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity that could immediately help to offset a Russian shortfall.."Obviously it is against the national interest of SA or any other oil producer that the price drops. Especially given world intentions medium term to keep reducing demand for what they have to sell. OPEC was created specifically to force up the price.
UK government policy has created this crisis. Not alone, but essentially it has ordered industry to cease using fossil fuels, and industry has responded by not developing new supplies. In general the energy industry is on the SA side too, of wanting to push up prices and therefore profits.
The UK has led the way in asking the private sector to manage a changeover to renewable energy, with the unsurprising result we have a crisis of supply.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Mar 18, 2022 7:42:38 GMT
I dont see what the down side is for NATO of the invasion having taken place? can you enlighten me?
Even ignoring the human catastrophe inside Ukraine, here's three obvious negatives for NATO member states: - 3 million refugees and consequent massive social burden on European states, especially those in the front line.
- Loss of access to the strategic raw materials, energy and food supplies of Ukraine and Russia, leading to inflationary spikes across the board and general economic difficulties.
- Loss of value of trade with Russia in goods and services.
Some might say a limited influx of labour to europe isnt a bad thing. The UK seems to have a labour shortage too. Unpopular in the eyes of some voters, but it could longer term be beneficial, with the advantage of voter sympathy for those particular immigrants.
Ceasing to source materials from Russia is a very obvious advantage if you might find yourself at war with that country. So again, if the cold war is now resuming, this is something we have to do anyway.
Opening up trade with Russia was rather predicated on the idea the conflict with Russia was over. Also perhaps because the fall of the USSR liberated a number of countries which have now been integrated into the west, and that was more than enough to be manageable at that time. But now we are starting to look at mopping up the remaining buffer states into the west and Russia is resisting again. So the cold war is on again and that means economically isolating Russia. The Ukrainan war makes all that politically possible.
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,573
|
Post by Danny on Mar 18, 2022 7:44:03 GMT
Meanwhile in the Times…
“An elite Ukrainian drone unit has destroyed dozens of “priority targets” by attacking Russian forces as they sleep, The Times can reveal."Ah those modern ideas..... |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 9:06:54 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Article on arms sale. UK sold+sells loads to Saudi. France sells to various countries and as a % then they didn't sell much to Russia (not that that is an excuse) sipri.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/fs_2103_at_2020.pdfOn tanks then it is now certainly clear that they are a pretty much obsolete in most roles (certainly most roles in which UK would need to use them in the future). In 2020 there was talk that MoD would just eliminate them entirely but FWIU the 'compromise' was just to upgrade a much smaller number. Maybe that decision is reviewed in the wake of witnessing how easily they are to knock-out? There will be a 'knee jerk' desire to increase defence spending but UK is already spending over 2% of GDP on defence so I personally don't want to see an increase. However, within the spending then £800million contract for 148 Challenger 3 tanks for the British Army should IMO be scrapped. Battle tanks have become like heavy cavalry but unlike cavalry I wouldn't even give tanks a ceremonial role. If others within NATO want to keep them then up to them but that, if anything, means there is even less need for them in the modern British Army. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-57025266
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 10:07:04 GMT
If you can find Beth Rigby's interview of Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Sky last night-worth a watch. Palpable hatred from a bloke Putin put away for 10 years. The interview can be seen on the below link. Given the polling and Putin's iron grip on Russian media[1] then I don't share Khodorkovsky's "total conviction that the realisation of what is happening in Ukraine will dawn on Russians". I very much hope he is right and that Russians do seek new leadership but as he points out Putin is an ageing gangster mission (need for a legacy) and if 'the West' keeps giving him concessions then he will not stop. Putin has to fail and be seen to fail (although perhaps that will not be seen by Russians inside Russia) www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX6ISz0FotU[1] I see Ofgem has decided on RT. I expect Putin will now ban BBC and other 'Western' media in Russia. I expect most folks in the West knew that RT was propaganda and RT's influence was near worthless. Sadly the 'winner' of a tit-4-tat ban on media will be Putin, as his grip on what Russian's see and hear tightens. Iron Curtains have two sides and the crack of 'reality' light that was still shining through to Russia will go dark.  www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60791734 |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 11:00:32 GMT
Biden chat with Xi. Most of the attention is on 'Western' demands[1] but what does China want? 1/ Not to be seen to give in to US demands but.. 2/ To avoid vastly increased military spending by NATO, Asian countries, etc. and also keep 'neutrals' and those who previously had 'pacifist' approaches from become more aware of the threats of autocratic regimes 3/ Not see global energy or food prices rise to high (they are massive importers and stagflation is not good for them) Goal?? 4/ West 'abandons' Russia, keeps many of the sanctions and leaves Russia behind a new Iron Curtain. Russia then becomes highly/totally dependent on China (a great source of cheaper energy, food and other raw materials that China has to import). Shunned by rWorld provides China with a competitive advantage and 'Energy/food security' if Russia becomes a Chinese puppet. China plays a very long game, with no need to worry about opinion polls or elections. They are perhaps the only country that Putin might listen to so Biden needs China to at least be 'neutral' but I doubt China is going let a good crisis go to waste and sadly the West has no option but to tackle the more immediate threat of Putin's aggression. However, of note then A/ China is probably watching the failure of Putin's attempt to invade and take control over a well defended democratic country using 'conventional' warfare. China's thoughts on perhaps expanding their own 'Greater China' Empire by force (eg Taiwan) are not going to look so good given the resistance Ukraine has put up and the economic hit on Russia. B/ China will also have seen the freezing of Russian Central Bank assets and the modern 'hybrid warfare' of attacking assets. China has a massive warchest of foreign reserves (8x that of Russia[2]) but it is mostly in US Treasuries which could be 'worthless' if US says they won't pay the coupons or principal back to any aggressive nation So China doesn't help Putin out and we (the West) force the 'Bear' into hibernation back in a Cold War cave but we'd better keep a closer eye on the 'Dragon' from now on, lest we allow that even bigger beast to get even stronger. [1] edition.cnn.com/2022/03/17/politics/joe-biden-xi-jinping-friday/index.html[2] www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/033115/10-countries-biggest-forex-reserves.asp |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 12:29:01 GMT
If you can find Beth Rigby's interview of Mikhail Khodorkovsky on Sky last night-worth a watch. Palpable hatred from a bloke Putin put away for 10 years. The interview can be seen on the below link. Given the polling and Putin's iron grip on Russian media[1] then I don't share Khodorkovsky's "total conviction that the realisation of what is happening in Ukraine will dawn on Russians". I very much hope he is right and that Russians do seek new leadership but as he points out Putin is an ageing gangster mission (need for a legacy) and if 'the West' keeps giving him concessions then he will not stop. Putin has to fail and be seen to fail (although perhaps that will not be seen by Russians inside Russia) www.youtube.com/watch?v=OX6ISz0FotU[1] I see Ofgem has decided on RT. I expect Putin will now ban BBC and other 'Western' media in Russia. I expect most folks in the West knew that RT was propaganda and RT's influence was near worthless. Sadly the 'winner' of a tit-4-tat ban on media will be Putin, as his grip on what Russian's see and hear tightens. Iron Curtains have two sides and the crack of 'reality' light that was still shining through to Russia will go dark. www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-60791734I spoke to my friend in Moscow last night - he confirmed what you say above about Putin's grip on the media tightening and people becoming more pro-war. Very few people are attending street protests now. Every day a new 'imminent threat' appears on the TV - chemical, biological, nuclear 'weapons of mass destruction' as they call them. Blair's legacy. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2022 16:58:42 GMT
I spoke to my friend in Moscow last night - he confirmed what you say above about Putin's grip on the media tightening and people becoming more pro-war. Very few people are attending street protests now. He's got them cheering him on-extraordinary ! www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60791892 |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,625
|
Post by pjw1961 on Mar 18, 2022 22:38:17 GMT
This is an detailed and intelligent piece on the development of Russian foreign policy under Putin. Written before the invasion of Ukraine, it is remarkably prescient that he might do something of the sort. My main lesson from it is that anyone who thinks Putin will just give up is going to be disappointed. He has long expected some sort of show-down with the west and believes he has to win it to "save Russia" - by which he means his idea of what Russia should be. www.understandingwar.org/report/how-we-got-here-russia-kremlins-worldviewTo borrow from the conclusion: "Putin’s seemingly facile and convenient rhetoric can be easy to dismiss as cynical. His rhetoric is not empty, however. It is a declaration of his key foreign principle, one that is at odds with the fundamental basis of the rules-based international order – namely, that only the mighty are truly sovereign ... Putin fundamentally views the shape of the current international order as the primary challenge to his interests. He believes, as he has said over and over, that a global hegemony, by which he means a world order led by America, is unacceptable to Russia." "Putin is no mere opportunistic predator. He may not always have a clear plan and acts expediently at times, but he knows what kind of world he wants and, even more so, what kind he does not. He seeks a world without NATO, with the U.S. confined to the Western Hemisphere, with Russia dominant over the former Soviet Union and able to do what it likes to its own people without condemnation or oversight ... He has been working towards such a world since the moment he took office. His most recent statements suggest that he thinks he is getting closer. If the West aims to avoid further strategic surprise and preserve the rule-based international order, it must understand this divergent worldview and accept that Putin, when it comes to his stated foreign policy goals and priorities, is often a man of his word." Obviously Putin has now delivered the "strategic surprise" the authors foresaw. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2022 12:55:45 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Mar 20, 2022 21:47:35 GMT
Something that interests me about this war is the amount of private/freelance involvement. There are mercenaries on both sides, which is very common (war against ISIS for instance) but there is more.
Firstly we have Elon Musk moving his satellites to maintain internet access to Ukraine, and secondly there is the Anonymous collective who have apparently disrupted Russian state broadcasting amongst other things. There may well be other initiatives which are less well publicised.
This sort of thing will not go away. Now that there are unimaginably wealthy individuals, and the internet is ubiquitous, does it mark a power shift away from governments and towards individuals and private organisations? If that is true, it could mean the beginning of the end for autocracies, and will also bring big changes to democracies. No doubt there will be both good and bad results.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Mar 21, 2022 8:36:12 GMT
mercian - also worth noting that the Belarussian opposition are claiming that a 'guerrilla army' has mobilised to prevent the Belarus army from entering the war. They are claiming a mass information campaign, leafleting Belarus troops, alongside actively damaging equipment and disrupting communications to physically prevent any deployment. I think the key thing here is information technology. Dictators rather like privacy when they do their worst, but the advent of mobile communications is making this very difficult for Russia to contain the information war, and on this they are losing.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 21, 2022 12:03:21 GMT
Putin can stay " on the ropes" for many, many years as Russia has Energy and Food independence. Perhaps worth considering what " on the ropes" would likely mean for all the various countries, assuming Ukraine doesn't surrender and allow Putin to win and be seen to win. 1/ Ukraine. Putin has escalated to war crimes and a 'Syria' approach. The refugee crisis will get much worse (maybe up to 10million+?), genocide (direct and deliberate or indirect via starvation and freezing next Winter) will kill 100,000s and then millions if it continues. Their towns and cities will be destroyed and their ability to grow crops will likely lead to a global shortage (compounded by Russian response if Russia bans exports as I expect they will) 2/ Russia. Putin is a dictator in control of the media in his own country and it's naive wishful thinking to expect him to change approach. Being independent on Energy and Food then Russia can shut their borders behind a new Iron Curtain and inflict economic pain on rWorld OR keep taking in €€biilions every month if rWorld keeps sending Russia hard currency. While he is "on the ropes" he can increase export capacity to China (which takes time being given to him by EC-EU nations) and adjust. China might be "neutral" militarily but I doubt they'll turn down cheap Russia gas/oil/coal or food. 3/ US. Also largely independent on food+energy so there is a risk they 'get bored' or put political self-interest ahead of the greater good. Biden is under the cosh for the 'cost of the living' crisis from a highly partisan GOP who will use any means to achieve their partisan goals. 4/ EC-EU. Needing to coordinate 27 countries with highly varying desires and highly varying dependency on Russia. A war of 'attrition' does not suit them but the bigger concern is that they drag their heels on weaning themselves off Russian gas/oil/coal (ie they continue to fund Putin's war and give Putin time to 'pivot' more to China). A shorter war might be riskier and more economically painful in the short-term but the refugee crisis will hit them hardest and are they really going to sit and watch what is happening in a fellow European nation that has aspirations to join EU? 5/ Little UK. Somewhere between 3+4. We're certainly less dependent on Russia gas/oil/coal but we do import a lot of gas at 'global' (LNG) or 'regional' (Norwegian pipeline) prices and if demand for those goes up then so does the price. 6/ China. They won't let a good crisis go to waste (see post from a few days ago). If the 'bear' becomes dependent on the 'dragon' then China get discounted gas/oil/coal and food and have the 'bear' as the 'bad guy'. They build up their strength and as mentioned t'other day then rWorld's bigger problem is currently Putin. A drawn out war might have short-term costs for them (imported inflation) but they'll work to their own agenda for their own interest. Conclusion: A/ Economically then 3-5 need to consider 'short term pain' for long-term gain (ie wean ourselves off Russia much faster, before Putin can switch to China). Just as we helped out for Covid then we can mitigate most of the economic implications via debt (QE). Might require some energy and food rationing and we need to plan for that. B/ Militarily then if Putin just turns Ukraine into Syria with NATO watching then 'where next'? He decides to take more of Moldova, maybe Serbia or perhaps a NATO country? I appreciate democracies often prefer to 'kick the can' and 'hope for the best' rather than take the tough long-term decisions that inflict some short-term pain but there is a huge cost to 'dither and delay' - huge death toll and refugee crisis in Ukraine, as that country is destroyed by Putin, but also an economic and military implication of allowing Putin to stay "on the ropes" and simply drag the war out. Putin might also think EC-EU will drag their feet, US might 'get bored', etc. UK has a tiny role given our size, non-involvement in 'Normandy Format' or EU and fairly low dependency on Russia (although we have significant indirect exposure due to being interconnected to European regional energy prices). No one is going to 'win' (although China might come out of a long war in a relatively stronger position). However, IMO, Putin can survive a very long time "on the ropes" if we (the West) just sit back and think 'job done', Putin will give in soon. I very much doubt he will give in. Come next Winter he can deploy 'General Frost' and if we accept war crimes and what looks like the start of genocide now and get twitchy about higher energy prices then are we really going to call his bluff into next Winter when US has mid-term elections and Putin is getting the message that EU intend to take until (at least) 2027 to wean themselves off his exports? So 'if not now/soon, then when'? Putin's escalation is grounds for an increased economic and military escalation from 'the West'. I don't want or expect that to be 'declaring war' but I'm aware Putin might interpret the modest military intervention I've suggested (and hope NATO agree to this week) as such. The other very important one is to show we (Europe and also to a lesser extent US and rWorld) are prepared to suffer some economic pain and ban future purchases of Russian gas/oil/coal much faster. |
|
|
|
Post by hireton on Mar 21, 2022 20:08:35 GMT
Two reports on Russian casualties.
One from a pro Kremlin newspaper quoting Russian MoD figures of nearly 10,000 killed and 16,000 injured:
Another from a Ukrainian source quoting an intercepted Russian communication of nearly 13,000 regular troops killed and over 4,000 private Wagner troops killed:
These are shockingly high casualty levels.
Also reports tonight thst the Ukrainians have recaptured an important town to the west of Kyev.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Mar 21, 2022 20:45:15 GMT
hireton So it looks as though the figures put out by Ukraine have been in the right ball park all along. Let's hope they are for tanks, planes etc too. Especially good news about the 'Liga' troops. Thoroughly unpleasant coves I understand.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 8:20:14 GMT
Wallace getting on with it :-
"Colonel Graham Taylor, who co-ordinates the ground-based air defence capability of the UK, said that the high-velocity weapon ( Starstreak) causes “catastrophic” damage to low-flying enemy fighter jets and helicopters.
He said that British troops were being deployed to a secret location in eastern Europe to teach Ukrainians how to use the portable system, which launches missiles capable of travelling at more than 2,000 mph.
It splits into three “darts” in mid-air that tear through enemy aircraft after being laser-guided to a target by a soldier on the ground.
Taylor said that the Army had “sent a short-term training team over there to assist with training the Ukrainians”.
“There is an aspiration that in two to three weeks of intensive training, they’re going to be in a position to use them effectively.”"
Times
Why didn't we do this earlier.
Also reported :-
"The UK is also deploying troops to Poland to operate the UK’s long-range Sky Sabre missile system, which will take down any enemy aircraft that fly into Polish airspace.
The move is part of a bilateral agreement to support the Polish armed forces but comes amid fears that the war could spill over into Nato territory."
Times
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 8:26:45 GMT
"Russian forces are digging in to positions around Kyiv as its troops elsewhere have been accused of deploying mines in a sign that they are trying to keep territory they have gained rather than pushing forward.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said that Russian troops were strengthening their positions around the periphery of the Ukrainian capital and in other parts of the country.
Russians are “generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time”, the institute said."
Times
If Putin is settling for territorial gain rather than complete conquest now, all the more important for Zelensky to get his wish-direct talks with Putin.
Another Minsk imposed on Ukraine by the "Normandy Format" must not be allowed.- Another agreement
Putin breaks in the future as he takes Ukraine bit by bit .
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 8:35:45 GMT
"Oil prices increased rose as high at $118 a barrel this morning after European leaders debated potential sanctions on Russian energy in response to the escalating war in Ukraine, intensifying fears of a supply crisis.
Countries including Ireland and Lithuania suggested a move to target Russian oil was unavoidable to cut off the Kremlin’s income, as the atrocities in Mariupol were branded “a massive war crime” by Josep Borrell, the foreign policy chief for the European Union.
Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, said: “Looking at the extent of the destruction in Ukraine right now, it’s very hard to make the case that we shouldn’t be moving in on the energy sector, particularly oil and coal.”
Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, said that starting to talk about the energy sector was “unavoidable” due to Russia’s dependence on oil revenue.
However, Germany argued it was too dependent on Russian supplies to impose an embargo.
Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said: “The question of an oil embargo is not a question of whether we want or don’t want [it] but a question of how much we depend on oil. Germany is importing a lot [of Russian oil] but there are also other member states who can’t stop the oil imports from one day to the other. If we could, we would do it automatically.”
Times
Zelensky lays it on the line :-
“We warned your politicians that this is dangerous when Moscow decides what natural gas you get and at what price. We said sanctions were needed to prevent this war. Please don’t sponsor the war machine of this country, Russia. The occupier should not get a single euro.
“Close all of your ports to them. Don’t supply them with goods. Refuse Russian energy resources. Pressure Russia to leave Ukraine. I believe and know that peace is possible but you need to act for us to get peace."
President Zelensky In a video addressing the German people.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 8:42:10 GMT
“What’s happening in Mariupol is a massive war crime.”
Josep Borrell. European Union foreign policy chief.
"Mariupol will be included in a list of cities in the world that were completely destroyed by war, such as Guernica, Stalingrad, Grozny, Aleppo,”
Manolis Androulakis, a Greek diplomat who was stationed in Mariupol
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 9:33:36 GMT
Zelensky lays it on the line :- “We warned your politicians that this is dangerous when Moscow decides what natural gas you get and at what price. We said sanctions were needed to prevent this war. Please don’t sponsor the war machine of this country, Russia. The occupier should not get a single euro. “Close all of your ports to them. Don’t supply them with goods. Refuse Russian energy resources. Pressure Russia to leave Ukraine. I believe and know that peace is possible but you need to act for us to get peace." President Zelensky In a video addressing the German people. Well that would count as 'naming and shaming'. Will the 'Traffic Light' coalition listen though (see comment on main thread)? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 12:57:42 GMT
"The World Health Organization (WHO) said it has verified 62 separate attacks on healthcare facilities in Ukraine since Russia's invasion began almost four weeks ago.
The organisation said 15 people had died in the attacks, and at least 37 others had been injured.
BBC
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 13:34:43 GMT
Countries including Ireland and Lithuania suggested a move to target Russian oil was unavoidable to cut off the Kremlin’s income, as the atrocities in Mariupol were branded “a massive war crime” by Josep Borrell, the foreign policy chief for the European Union. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, said: “Looking at the extent of the destruction in Ukraine right now, it’s very hard to make the case that we shouldn’t be moving in on the energy sector, particularly oil and coal.” Coveney and Ireland also shifting on their previous 'neutral' stance:
Neutral Ireland sees 'good chance' of involvement in new EU force -RTEwww.reuters.com/world/europe/neutral-ireland-sees-good-chance-involvement-new-eu-force-rte-2022-03-21/However, note the glacial pace: ' which is due to be operational by 2025' WTF. That is 3yrs away. They might find Trump is back in the White House before they get their act together and look to their own defence for their own shared polity.  |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 14:47:10 GMT
Countries including Ireland and Lithuania suggested a move to target Russian oil was unavoidable to cut off the Kremlin’s income, as the atrocities in Mariupol were branded “a massive war crime” by Josep Borrell, the foreign policy chief for the European Union. Simon Coveney, Ireland’s foreign minister, said: “Looking at the extent of the destruction in Ukraine right now, it’s very hard to make the case that we shouldn’t be moving in on the energy sector, particularly oil and coal.” Coveney and Ireland also shifting on their previous 'neutral' stance:
Neutral Ireland sees 'good chance' of involvement in new EU force -RTEwww.reuters.com/world/europe/neutral-ireland-sees-good-chance-involvement-new-eu-force-rte-2022-03-21/However, note the glacial pace: ' which is due to be operational by 2025' WTF. That is 3yrs away. They might find Trump is back in the White House before they get their act together and look to their own defence for their own shared polity.  I was thinking about EU Defence initiatives. One of Putin's red lines was a "demilitarised " Ukraine. Whilst Zelensky has recognised that he is not getting NATO membership, so far as I know his EU application is still in. If EU is to become a militarised bloc, how does Vlad feel about that? I have read many suggested "models" for a neutral Ukraine. But when the missiles start flying do any of these models stand examination ?:- www.swissinfo.ch/eng/switzerland-will-remain-neutral---until-it-s-attacked/47437652#:~:text=Switzerland%20is%20a%20neutral%20country,European%20Union%20for%20many%20years. I'm pretty cynical about "agreements" of this sort and fully expect the one involving Ukraine & Russia to be a fudge which won't last. I only hope that , at the end, Ukraine can believe that its fallen did not die in vain. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 15:58:01 GMT
I was thinking about EU Defence initiatives. One of Putin's red lines was a "demilitarised " Ukraine. Well that is up to Zelensky and what constitutes 'demilitarised'. If Putin needs some kind of win to tell his population then Zelensky can play the 'interpretation of agreement' game that Putin has been playing. EG Zelensky agrees to 'demilitarise' provided Russia removes all its troops from Ukraine (Crimea and any new line in East.Ukraine for them to discuss). Then perhaps whatever 'extra' weapons Zelensky has received from NATO and non-NATO countries are returned and he says that qualifies as 'demilitarised'. Then if Russian forces ever mass on the Ukrainian borders again then we rearm Ukraine to the teeth and impose a 'no fly zone' BEFORE Putin considers grabbing another slice of Ukraine (or anywhere else). That would IMO constitute nothing more than honouring the original Budapest Memorandum (1994). Putin has to fail and be seen to fail by rWorld so we go back to 1994 where both sides were supposed to ensure Ukraine was neutral, sovereign, etc. PS Swiss are surrounded by 'friendly' nations but they have redefined 'neutral' WRT to sanctions and maybe they/other 'neutrals' go a bit further and ensure they have deeper security treaties in place (or just continue to 'assume' others will defend them). RoI have 'free-loaded' off UK and US (IMO) as no way would either UK or US allow RoI to be invaded by a hostile force. However, the days of 'assumptions' are over and within EU then perhaps they are doing a bit of behind the scenes 'diplomacy' through to 'name and shame' if required to make sure everyone pulls their weight from now on (well by 2025 at least). It will easier for each country that was 'neutral' and/or partially free-loading to say they have to increase defence spending and take defence seriously if EC-EU27 make everyone get to say a minimum of 2% defence spending, etc. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 18:17:33 GMT
"Russian forces are digging in to positions around Kyiv as its troops elsewhere have been accused of deploying mines in a sign that they are trying to keep territory they have gained rather than pushing forward. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said that Russian troops were strengthening their positions around the periphery of the Ukrainian capital and in other parts of the country. Russians are “generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time”, the institute said." I tend to read their daily up date so will post the link: twitter.com/TheStudyofWarand most recent update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21A few thoughts: - As per Biden update then if Russia is planning to use chemical or biological weapons then you'd want to ensure your troops were 'dug in' away from where those attacks might happen - Putin MIGHT be setting the ground for a 'ceasefire' to put a 'pause' on the war for the Spring-Summer. Russia's best general is 'General Frost' and he might also want to stop the push towards a full embargo on Russian trade - Russian forces can continue to pound Ukrainian cities from a distance. Clearly the ground offensive isn't working (at the moment) so save your troops and just launch short-long range missiles to keep up the humanitarian crisis, refugee crisis and hope Zelensky moves to end the suffering - All of the above! Main point being Putin has options and his original plans failed so he is likely to change his plan. 6days old but someone recently said: “I am very, very concerned that Putin is playing a smoke-and-mirrors game of trying to claim that he is seeking peace whilst at the same time continuing with this appalling war that he instigated"
(swap 'continuing' for 'pausing' if Putin dupes the 'usual suspects' into thinking he's going to stop and that this time is different) www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/russia-playing-smoke-and-mirrors-game-says-liz-trussAnother quote: "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead" (swap 'terminator' and 'it' for Putin - although Putin's lack of humanity possibly qualifies use of the 'it' pronoun) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2022 18:55:40 GMT
"Russian forces are digging in to positions around Kyiv as its troops elsewhere have been accused of deploying mines in a sign that they are trying to keep territory they have gained rather than pushing forward. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said that Russian troops were strengthening their positions around the periphery of the Ukrainian capital and in other parts of the country. Russians are “generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time”, the institute said." I tend to read their daily up date so will post the link: twitter.com/TheStudyofWarand most recent update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-21A few thoughts: - As per Biden update then if Russia is planning to use chemical or biological weapons then you'd want to ensure your troops were 'dug in' away from where those attacks might happen - Putin MIGHT be setting the ground for a 'ceasefire' to put a 'pause' on the war for the Spring-Summer. Russia's best general is 'General Frost' and he might also want to stop the push towards a full embargo on Russian trade - Russian forces can continue to pound Ukrainian cities from a distance. Clearly the ground offensive isn't working (at the moment) so save your troops and just launch short-long range missiles to keep up the humanitarian crisis, refugee crisis and hope Zelensky moves to end the suffering - All of the above! Main point being Putin has options and his original plans failed so he is likely to change his plan. 6days old but someone recently said: “I am very, very concerned that Putin is playing a smoke-and-mirrors game of trying to claim that he is seeking peace whilst at the same time continuing with this appalling war that he instigated"
(swap 'continuing' for 'pausing' if Putin dupes the 'usual suspects' into thinking he's going to stop and that this time is different) www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/16/russia-playing-smoke-and-mirrors-game-says-liz-trussAnother quote: "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead" (swap 'terminator' and 'it' for Putin - although Putin's lack of humanity possibly qualifies use of the 'it' pronoun) Thanks for the links. I agree that nothing Putin says or agrees to can be relied upon. Just watched Amanpour on CNN interviewing Putin "spokesman". He said "fake" to every criticism and photo. You cannot even converse with these people. I would love someone to give the Odesa military ,shore to ship missiles-and watch his Black Sea Fleet sink. Only something like this is going to move him imo. |
|
