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Post by mercian on Mar 13, 2022 21:56:54 GMT
Obviously what Putin has done is utterly unforgivable, but I can understand his motivation. Suppose Scotland got it's independence and then we (rUK) discovered that Russian troops were there training the Scots 'purely for defensive purposes'? We'd be a bit nervous too wouldn't we?
My solution, though too late now would be to invite Russia to join the EU and NATO.
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Post by catfuzz on Mar 14, 2022 9:29:45 GMT
Surreal last night. Went to go see the Robert Battison Batman movie and the ads before the screening went as follows:
Lloyds Royal Marines Recruitment Samsung Royal Navy Recruitment 3 mobile Royal Air Force Recruitment Royal Army Recruitment Audi Territorial Army Recruitment
It was somewhat unsettling to see that. Even more so that they were stylised in a way to appeal to Gen Z, highlighting the perks of travel and seeing the world, and working as a team and glossing over the fact that you might be KIA. Film was a pretty authentic rendition of Gotham though...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2022 12:58:53 GMT
It was somewhat unsettling to see that. More unsettling than the Russian cruise missile which landed 8 miles from the Ukraine/Poland border ? More unsettling than Putin's blitzkrieg on civilian homes ? More unsettling than the mass graves for the dead of Mariupol?
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Post by catfuzz on Mar 14, 2022 13:54:53 GMT
It was somewhat unsettling to see that. More unsettling than the Russian cruise missile which landed 8 miles from the Ukraine/Poland border ? More unsettling than Putin's blitzkrieg on civilian homes ? More unsettling than the mass graves for the dead of Mariupol? I think you’re misunderstanding. I’m saying that for me this was unsettling in how much closer to home this is than previous wars of my time, and how if this were to escalate, the disasters you mention may very well be borne-out in our backyard. I’m in no way disparaging the current awful situation that is occurring in Ukraine, more fearing that it may not stay just in Ukraine, but it was certainly a reality-check to see something like this in what was an entertaining evening out.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2022 14:03:53 GMT
More unsettling than the Russian cruise missile which landed 8 miles from the Ukraine/Poland border ? More unsettling than Putin's blitzkrieg on civilian homes ? More unsettling than the mass graves for the dead of Mariupol? I think you’re misunderstanding. I’m saying that for me this was unsettling in how much closer to home this is than previous wars of my time, and how if this were to escalate, the disasters you mention may very well be borne-out in our backyard. I’m in no way disparaging the current awful situation that is occurring in Ukraine, more fearing that it may not stay just in Ukraine, but it was certainly a reality-check to see something like this in what was an entertaining evening out. My apologies-I misunderstood. Yes indeed . Our current red line may not be recognised by every shell and missile.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2022 14:45:31 GMT
Just FWIW then new YG article showing: War in Ukraine leads to spiking stress, fear, and sadness among Britonsyougov.co.uk/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2022/03/14/war-ukraine-leads-spiking-stress-fear-sadness-Obviously our increased stress, fear and sadness pales into insignificance compared to what Ukrainians are enduring. The only other observation I'd make is that the 'Fall of Kabul' (Aug'21) didn't even register on the 'mood' of the Britain public. NB I do appreciate Ukraine is closer, Putin has nukes, etc. and press wasn't 24/7 reporting Afghanistan.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2022 14:58:42 GMT
Another new article from YG: Two-thirds of the public say brands should take a stance on Ukraine
yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/articles-reports/2022/03/14/two-thirds-public-say-brands-should-take-stance-ukAgain, pales into insignificance WRT to the impact on Ukrainians but there is only so much that govts can do without declaring war on Putin's Russia. If major companies take action (as many have) then that all 'helps' in putting internal pressure on Putin's Russia. Russian people might believe Putin's propaganda but as they start to see the implications of becoming a 'Pariah State' then that might influence the mood of the Russian public. As a dictator then Tsar Putin is likely not interested in the mood of the Russian public but Tsar Nicholas II made that mistake! Internal regime change (ie not regime change from external force) is still the best hope (not that we should assume it will happen, but anything that puts internal pressure on Tsar Putin is to be welcomed).
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Mar 15, 2022 7:40:33 GMT
UN is not longer fit for purpose and Putin is running rings around the 'liberal democracies' which, beyond allowing him to get away with war crimes, also encourages other autocracies to continue with their own human rights abuses. The structure of the UN deliberately reflects the fact military power will always win a dispute. It was never intended to hold back superpowers, but help arbitrate disputes between smaller nations. It can only work if the powerful states use their force to intervene in smaller disputes.
The Uk having a permanent seat is an anchronism based on our former power. If the UN was reformed, thats an obvious change which could be made, but not removing Russia.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 12:28:32 GMT
Danny has moved on from the Tories don't want Brexit, through lockdowns and vaccines not working and now he's into Putin's invasion being a trap by NATO.
We are all experts at everything obviously, but Danny is the anti-expert.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 13:14:41 GMT
"Mr Zelensky said Nato was "the strongest alliance in the world" but "some of the members of this alliance are hypnotised by Russian aggression". He added that Vladimir Putin's invasion had undermined European security infrastructure and that fears of World War Three were allowing Russia to bombard peaceful cities."
" the humanitarian no fly zone is not yet established"
BBC
"Hundreds of people are crammed into the basement of a large public building in the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, but are running out of food, with many also in need of urgent medical help. "Some have developed sepsis from shrapnel in the body," said Anastasiya Ponomareva, a 39-year-old teacher who fled the city at the start of the war but was still in contact with friends there. "Things are very serious." The city is encircled by Russian troops and remains under constant bombardment with almost 400,000 people still trapped without running water, and food and medical supplies quickly running out. The local authorities say the war there has left at least 2,400 civilians dead, but even they acknowledge that this is an underestimate."
BBC
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 13:24:44 GMT
"UN refugee agency: Close to 2.7 million have fled war in Ukraine" - The Sofia Globe
" "Since February 24, scores of children have been killed in Ukraine. Many more have been injured.and more than 1.5 million children have fled the country. Putting this last statistic another way, on average, every day in Ukraine from the start of the war, more than 75,000 children have become refugees. Every day."
UNICEF Mar 15
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 13:34:54 GMT
Largest Refugee crises following war:-
WW2 40 to 60 m -in 20 years Bangladesh Liberation War. 10m - in 8years WW1 7 to 15m - in 4 years Syrian Civil War 6.8m - in 11 years Soviet/Afghan War 6.2m - in 11 years Invasion of Ukraine 3.0 m + - in 3 weeks
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 14:05:09 GMT
Largest Refugee crises following war:- 1. WW2 40 to 60 m -in 20 years 2. Partition of India: 10-20m in 1year3. Bangladesh Liberation War. 10m - in 8years 4. WW1 7 to 15m - in 4 years 5. Syrian Civil War 6.8m - in 11 years 6. Soviet/Afghan War 6.2m - in 11 years 7. Invasion of Ukraine 3.0 m + - in 3 weeks Did you miss #2 due to specific relevance to 'war'? Also #1 being over 20years should probably be broken down into sections as some of the big numbers within that total happened in shorter periods. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_refugee_crisesI also note no mention of the recent Afghan 'war' in that list and how many Afghans are now living in 'terror'. That in no way belittles the developing enormous refugee crisis due to Putin's war but I would also add that in modern times people can move 'quicker' than they used to. I would however expect some of the early estimates about the eventual size of the Ukrainian refugee crisis are upwardly revised given it's 3million already. A 'refugee crisis' is likely something Putin thinks will work in his favour in the medium/long-term (against which there are various factors working against Putin in the medium/long-term but who is going to 'blink' first if the war drags out?) Other lists exist and for now there is no WW3 number in the below one and for Ukraine then Holodomor (1932-33) and Dekulakization (1917-33) are still way above Putin's war. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_tollAgain, I in no way belittle the current death toll in Ukraine but am merely highlighting the risk it gets worse - possibly a LOT worse - if it either escalates and/or drags out.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 15:44:31 GMT
Largest Refugee crises following war:- 1. WW2 40 to 60 m -in 20 years 2. Partition of India: 10-20m in 1year3. Bangladesh Liberation War. 10m - in 8years 4. WW1 7 to 15m - in 4 years 5. Syrian Civil War 6.8m - in 11 years 6. Soviet/Afghan War 6.2m - in 11 years 7. Invasion of Ukraine 3.0 m + - in 3 weeks Did you miss #2 due to specific relevance to 'war'? Also #1 being over 20years should probably be broken down into sections as some of the big numbers within that total happened in shorter periods. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_refugee_crisesI also note no mention of the recent Afghan 'war' in that list and how many Afghans are now living in 'terror'. That in no way belittles the developing enormous refugee crisis due to Putin's war but I would also add that in modern times people can move 'quicker' than they used to. I would however expect some of the early estimates about the eventual size of the Ukrainian refugee crisis are upwardly revised given it's 3million already. A 'refugee crisis' is likely something Putin thinks will work in his favour in the medium/long-term (against which there are various factors working against Putin in the medium/long-term but who is going to 'blink' first if the war drags out?) Other lists exist and for now there is no WW3 number in the below one and for Ukraine then Holodomor (1932-33) and Dekulakization (1917-33) are still way above Putin's war. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_tollAgain, I in no way belittle the current death toll in Ukraine but am merely highlighting the risk it gets worse - possibly a LOT worse - if it either escalates and/or drags out. Yes-which is why i said "following war" I agree the Ukraine numbers will be "upwardly revised" which is why I wrote 3m + I agree Putin " thinks this works in his favour"-which is why he is terrorising civilians with his bombardments. I will get worse I feel sure-as we document war crimes from a desk on the sidelines.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2022 16:31:49 GMT
Yes-which is why i said "following war" I agree the Ukraine numbers will be "upwardly revised" which is why I wrote 3m + I agree Putin " thinks this works in his favour"-which is why he is terrorising civilians with his bombardments. It will get worse I feel sure-as we document war crimes from a desk on the sidelines. Indo-Pakistani War of 1947–1948 (First Kashmir War)? British history perhaps tends to simply call it the 'Partition of India' but there was very high death toll and even larger displacement of people. It is perhaps because I have a very good friend whose parents were displaced by that conflict that is why I questioned the omission. In many ways it has very high relevance to the current situation in Ukraine (eg the desires of some to think they can simply divide Ukraine up, put down some new lines on a map (from behind their desks far from the conflict), and hope that solves the problem)
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Post by catfuzz on Mar 15, 2022 22:03:47 GMT
Danny has moved on from the Tories don't want Brexit, through lockdowns and vaccines not working and now he's into Putin's invasion being a trap by NATO. We are all experts at everything obviously, but Danny is the anti-expert. Over the years of lurking on UKPR, I’ve come to think that whatever Danny is saying, usually the opposite is true.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2022 9:15:03 GMT
Just FWIW then see attached. Since Putin started his invasion then EU nat.gas imports from Russia have increased (see Fig4) and storage levels have hence not been depleted as much as feared (Fig5). However, that is a lot of €€billions still being sent to Russia to fund Putin's war www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/european-natural-gas-imports/
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Post by Danny on Mar 16, 2022 12:39:12 GMT
Danny has moved on from the Tories don't want Brexit, through lockdowns and vaccines not working and now he's into Putin's invasion being a trap by NATO. We are all experts at everything obviously, but Danny is the anti-expert. The tories did not want brexit. Lockdowns accomplished essentially nothing except a huge bill. Which isnt to say certain measures didnt help, but closing eveything wasnt it.
It is clear NATO could have prevented the Russian invasion both by making clear how much more effective Ukrainian forces were than believed, and by imposing sanctions against the threat of war, not after the event.
I dont see what the down side is for NATO of the invasion having taken place? can you enlighten me?
Over the years of lurking on UKPR, I’ve come to think that whatever Danny is saying, usually the opposite is true. Perhaps thats because I post about things I dont agree with, not about things where I agree with general consensus. Its a matter of record that the conservative party opposed brexit, and a matter of record NATO/west failed to apply sanctions to prevent the invasion. Its a matter of disputed evidence that lockdowns didnt accomplish anything, but almost all the evidence it did is based upon modelling which essentially assumes it worked! voodoo science.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2022 12:54:48 GMT
UK is doing every country facing a Cost of Living crisis a favour. Unpalatable as it is then the explanation for Boris visiting Saudi and UAE is as simples as it gets. Someone has to ask as: "..Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold substantial spare capacity that could immediately help to offset a Russian shortfall.."www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2022?
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Mar 16, 2022 14:25:46 GMT
I dont see what the down side is for NATO of the invasion having taken place? can you enlighten me?
Even ignoring the human catastrophe inside Ukraine, here's three obvious negatives for NATO member states: - 3 million refugees and consequent massive social burden on European states, especially those in the front line.
- Loss of access to the strategic raw materials, energy and food supplies of Ukraine and Russia, leading to inflationary spikes across the board and general economic difficulties.
- Loss of value of trade with Russia in goods and services.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2022 14:28:35 GMT
"Ukraine's president invoked the horror of the 2001 terror attacks on the US as he pleaded for more military aid in a historic address to the US Congress.
Volodymyr Zelensky said via video link that Ukraine was enduring a 9/11 every day as it battled Russian forces.
He again urged the US and Nato allies to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying: "I need to protect the sky."
BBC
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Mar 16, 2022 18:19:50 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2022 22:04:12 GMT
Another war crime in Mariupol.
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Post by birdseye on Mar 17, 2022 8:25:52 GMT
Obviously what Putin has done is utterly unforgivable, but I can understand his motivation. Suppose Scotland got it's independence and then we (rUK) discovered that Russian troops were there training the Scots 'purely for defensive purposes'? We'd be a bit nervous too wouldn't we? My solution, though too late now would be to invite Russia to join the EU and NATO. Its not a good comparison. For a start Russia is un-invadable. Simply too big as both Napoleon and Hitler found out. Second is that you cant equate the democratic government of the UK with Putin - Scotland would have no need for defenses unlike the Ukraine. Your solution is impractical since NATO is all about defending the west against Russia.
The issue is that Putin is a fascists and Russian nationalist as well as being supported by a kleptocrasy rather in the same way as a mafia godfather. You cant be a nationalist without creating some sort of "enemy" and Putin has done that using the West. For that matter Brexiteers did it with the EU and the SNP does it with the English. Its a pretty standard tactic.
Its a bit "devil and the deep blue". If he wins again ( as with Georgia etc) he will continue. If he is defeated then "Russia" has been humiliated by their Russiaphobic enemies in the West which will feed well to the pearasnts.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 9:45:11 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 10:15:37 GMT
1. The anti-sanctions group are known as the “Contras” “It’s becoming more clear by the day that three sides are forming: Poland and the Baltic states on one side, known as the Sanctionistas that want more and stronger sanctions. Then Germany, Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria on the other, Contras, that prioritise their own economic interests. And the rest,” an EU diplomat from a country caught in the middle said. 2. ;@tw have you seen a/ any economic forecasts for Ukraine related factors ( including sanctions) effect on Western Economies ? And have you seen b/ an assessment of the effect on UK Real economy of closure of Oligarch money laundering in UK ? 1. At some point then US+ can apply pressure on the "contras". Those that don't match US+ sanctions have sanctions imposed on them (and that starts by diplomatically giving them notice to either make the decision themselves, ramped up to 'named and shamed' and only implemented if they still refuse to act). See info on the issue of oil exports in my previous post on this thread. I respect a small amount of adjustment time might be warranted but we can always set dates (and much sooner than current dates). It's not impossible Putin can sees the intention to further reduce the €€billions of hard currency that is funding his war and decides to withdraw his troops before the increased sanctions (eg increased trade embargo) starts. 2. a/ The impact will be mostly via cost of living and the resulting hit to net disposable incomes. IMF and others will be revising down their growth forecasts www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imf-chief-georgieva-says-ukraine-war-lower-global-growth-forecast-2022-03-10/Also Larry Elliott piece on who might 'blink' first: www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/06/russia-economy-sanctions-ukraine-west-cost-of-living-crisisb/ Not a complete one and depends on what you mean specifically. IIRC I've posted links from UK Finance Conduct Authority before that show that stopping money laundering would be a significant net gain in tax revenues for UK (but they make various assumptions that are not realistic, notably that the money would probably just be washed elsewhere). As you widen the analysis out to consider 2nd round effects then it's like pulling on a string and you can't be totally sure what you'd end up with given how complex the web of Russian money is. Any analysis will be full of assumptions. However, my guess would be significant very localised and specific impacts (eg high end property market and fancy restaurants, yacht sales, etc not just in London but other places that oligarchs liked to spend their time+money - similar for the income of the small specific groups of people who facilitated that) BUT fairly limited broader impact for UK or anyone else. Overall the real economy impact quite small IMO and I certainly don't think it's a reason to not act (and I note we've pushed through the legal requirements to match US and go further)
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 10:52:54 GMT
1. The anti-sanctions group are known as the “Contras” “It’s becoming more clear by the day that three sides are forming: Poland and the Baltic states on one side, known as the Sanctionistas that want more and stronger sanctions. Then Germany, Italy, Hungary, Bulgaria on the other, Contras, that prioritise their own economic interests. And the rest,” an EU diplomat from a country caught in the middle said. 2. ;@tw have you seen a/ any economic forecasts for Ukraine related factors ( including sanctions) effect on Western Economies ? And have you seen b/ an assessment of the effect on UK Real economy of closure of Oligarch money laundering in UK ? 1. At some point then US+ can apply pressure on the "contras". Those that don't match US+ sanctions have sanctions imposed on them (and that starts by diplomatically giving them notice to either make the decision themselves, ramped up to 'named and shamed' and only implemented if they still refuse to act). See info on the issue of oil exports in my previous post on this thread. I respect a small amount of adjustment time might be warranted but we can always set dates (and much sooner than current dates). It's not impossible Putin can sees the intention to further reduce the €€billions of hard currency that is funding his war and decides to withdraw his troops before the increased sanctions (eg increased trade embargo) starts. 2. a/ The impact will be mostly via cost of living and the resulting hit to net disposable incomes. IMF and others will be revising down their growth forecasts www.reuters.com/markets/europe/imf-chief-georgieva-says-ukraine-war-lower-global-growth-forecast-2022-03-10/Also Larry Elliott piece on who might 'blink' first: www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/06/russia-economy-sanctions-ukraine-west-cost-of-living-crisisb/ Not a complete one and depends on what you mean specifically. IIRC I've posted links from UK Finance Conduct Authority before that show that stopping money laundering would be a significant net gain in tax revenues for UK (but they make various assumptions that are not realistic, notably that the money would probably just be washed elsewhere). As you widen the analysis out to consider 2nd round effects then it's like pulling on a string and you can't be totally sure what you'd end up with given how complex the web of Russian money is. Any analysis will be full of assumptions. However, my guess would be significant very localised and specific impacts (eg high end property market and fancy restaurants, yacht sales, etc not just in London but other places that oligarchs liked to spend their time+money - similar for the income of the small specific groups of people who facilitated that) BUT fairly limited broader impact for UK or anyone else. Overall the real economy impact quite small IMO and I certainly don't think it's a reason to not act (and I note we've pushed through the legal requirements to match US and go further) Thanks-yes my guess too on UK Oligarch effect. Cost of Living a huge factor for European economies and politics I think. Doubt the reality has sunk in yet.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 11:10:42 GMT
Just FWIW the global benchmark oil prices[1] are back to about where they were just before 24Feb (although they had risen into the invasion). However, the discount for Russian oil is increasing and is nearing $30 per barrel. So price of Russias oil exports is down to around $72 per barrel and due to 'self imposed' embargo from many of the players then Russia is struggling to ship anything like the quantities that they did before 24Feb. I'd like to see that pushed even lower, ideally as a combination of an even bigger discount on Russian oil and lower export volumes[2] whilst not seeing the global benchmark price move up by too much (as the Cost of Living issue weakens the resolve of 'the West') www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference#b3df7aed[1] EG Brent crude, 16Mar close price of $98.02 very close to price leading into 24Feb. www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CBY00/interactive-chart[2] lower price x lower volumes = much lower inward flows of hard currency into Russia to fund Putin's war.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 15:52:29 GMT
If anyone is interested in how the war is being presented to the people of Crimea have a look at crimea.ria.ru. Google translate is your friend.
The impression I get is that Putin is trying to shore up support amongst the Crimeans by announcing extra investment in the region. Hopefully a sign a sign that he's losing support.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2022 16:33:00 GMT
Thanks-yes my guess too on UK Oligarch effect. Cost of Living a huge factor for European economies and politics I think. Doubt the reality has sunk in yet. I'd also be concerned that the reality has started to sink in and some folks have realised how painful things will get for their own economy if they adopt a 'whatever it takes' approach. vdL speaks for the EC and doesn't have voters to appease. Likes of Bruegel and IEA gave their views and EC gave a 'high level' response of what they hope EU nations will collectively do (ie it was all 'top down' and hope - with some claims that are impossible to meet this year without demand rationing or going into next Winter without enough storage (mentioned at the time)). Likes of Lindner will need to take their foot off the debt brake. Germany and other countries will need to do things they don't want to do (eg the 70TWh/yr of nuclear that Germany doesn't seem to want to 'U-turn' on ending, Netherlands extending the life of Groningen gas field, and TBC on whether folks will decide to burn a lot more coal in the short-term and rapidly speed up renewable investment and building of LNG[1], etc as well). Some issues for UK as well of course and our detailed response is delayed. Since NATO is very much US+ then I'd be quite happy for US(+Canada) to lead on sanctions and put pressure on European countries (incl. UK, although it will be easier for UK than for many others) [1] On Germany's LNG plan then ' better never than late' IMO (as well as those at NG and at OIES). US LNG is not the nicest of stuff and the process of liquefaction and storage, ocean transportation via tankers, then storage and regasification gives it quite a high global carbon footprint. Even if repurposed for hydrogen imports in due course then if it takes 4yrs to build the infrastructure then by the time it is built then they won't need it (provided they don't mind using LNG (repurposed to hydrogen in the 2030s) ports in other countries). Nat.gas is only supposed to be a 'bridge' and if you haven't built the LNG infrastructure bridge by now then it isn't cost effective (assuming a 'global' consideration of carbon cost and energy being included in a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) to only just start building the port infrastructure now (unless you don't trust those who already have the infrastructure in place!). If they'd started in 2014 (or 2018 when the previous POTUS suggested it) then different matter of course as they'd have had that capacity available by 2018 (or by now if they started in 2018)
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